Monday, June 4, 2007

Bend Realtors Threaten Brazilian Rainforests!

I was out yesterday, and basically cruised the Westside, and was stunned by the number of Open Houses. Everywhere. They were EVERYWHERE. Unbelievable. The number of trees that had to be sacrificed to produce all the Open House signs. Wow. The Eastside is a veritable graveyard. I'm not sure how the actual activity was, but there was much hope given the volume of signs.

Funny story, there's a model home on the Eastside complete with perma-Open House Realtor. This guy seems to show up everyday, surrounded by dead empty lots, and sleep. One day last week, I saw kids running through this model home, the Realtor had just sort of left it Open. He was gone for hours.

Doug Farmers data came out, and contrary to what the massive increase in inventory seems to indicate would happen -- lower prices -- prices were apparently higher. Volume was crushed however. 146 sales. I can only think some aggressive pricing on the Westside unstuck sales, and there were just more high-end closes than normal. The ranks of middle and lower class buyers was thinned considerably. There is a harrowing 14.69 months of inventory though. That is just death. Buyers and sellers are NOT buying or selling. They are staring at each other. No one makes money staring.

A reader posted the recent Bulletin article, "Bend Home Appreciation Rate Drops" on the previous comments. We dropped from No. 1 to No. 10. on a YoY basis.

Bend had the lowest quarterly appreciation from fourth quarter 2006 of all top 20 cities, which leads local brokers to suspect Bend will be out of the top 20 by the third quarter, which ends Sept. 30.

If you look back to Q4 2006, we also had quite low appreciation at the end of last year. Almost all the appreciation we have right now was done in Q2 - Q3 2006. Despite an apparent May surge in pricing, I still firmly believe that Q2 might begin a negative YoY appreciation rate in Bend home prices, but Q3 will be a virtual dead lock. We will be down YoY when Q3 is done.

The region is still trying to find its balance, Berger said, adding that he doesn't think Bend's appreciation will fall into the negatives, as is occurring in many once-hot California markets.

I'll say right now... Berger is Dead Wrong here. Another weird Berger-ism:

Conversely, "sellers feel, rightfully so, that they've been beat up pretty darn hard," Berger said. "And they're not ready to come down."

What? Beat Up? Beat up from what? The horrors of making more on their home than anywhere in the country over the past 5 years? Yeah... it must be awful. Bend homes are UP over 100% for the past 5 years. If that's "beat up", I wonder what the hell these people will do when prices are actually down in 5 years time.

There is also a pretty good article in the Sunday paper, "Planned projects focus on west side", about Redmonds expanding UGB. Quick quotes:

  • Redmond's urban growth boundary expansion will increase the city's housing base and drive prices down
  • developers are cautious about the number of years it will take to sell the lots
  • Some projects will fall by the wayside, Crosby said.
  • Median home prices in Redmond, meanwhile, have slipped to $255,500. By comparison, Bend's median is $372,075, according to the MLS.
  • Affordable land supply is key to Redmond's future growth, said Bruce Kemp, president of Compass Commercial
  • The completion of the city's urban growth boundary expansion process, approved by the state in December, will give Redmond a higher percentage of growth during the next 10 years than Bend, Kemp said.
  • Upon expected buildout within 10 years, the mix of new homes could bring between 14,000 and 17,500 people, he said.
  • Eventually, more affordable housing prices will attract more companies, said Bud Prince, manager of Redmond Economic Development. The number of speculators and investors who sought to buy a piece of property, then resell it for a profit, have slowed to a trickle at his office, he said.
  • "That's a good thing, really," Prince said. "Because they drove the prices up for the end user."
So "Affordable land" is key to Redmonds growth? What about Bend? Sometimes I get the feeling that what is "good" for Redmond, is not exactly what our fine Bend RE experts want to happen in Bend.

Medians in Bend are $372,075? I looked, and could not find this figure on MLS Q1 report, nor David Fosters monthly report. And from the context of the article, it could be May. This would be the first median figure I've seen for May.

And it's the first time I remember a developer (Andy Crosby) going forward with a very large development, admitting that some projects will "fall by the wayside". Of course this is a basic admission that these things do not make economic sense anymore and won't get built. Of course Crosby's 1,400 home project isn't one of these poorly conceived black holes. He's smarter than those other guys... who are smarter than him... who is smarter than them... and so forth.

And I'm just curious what real estate speculators are doing at Bud Princes, the manager of Redmond Economic Developments, office? It flat out states that the flow of speculators has "slowed to a trickle" at his office, a fact that I'm sure he is very distraught over. Does anyone know if this guy is moonlighting as a Realtor? If so, I'm just relieved that we have officials responsible for Central Oregon economic development wining and dining real estate speculators when the market dictates.

And it's getting rather hard to hold back the bile when I read how happy Realtors are that walk-in speculator traffic has "slowed to a trickle". Oh, I'm quite sure that despite heroic efforts to hold the office door closed a year or so ago, these poor people were overwhelmed by the sheer force of will of these speculators to buy.

"I can't sell you 6 homes for that amount of money, it's TOO MUCH! I have an obligation to the tired, poor, and downtrodden. Oh no, don't hold a gun to my head! Oh no! I am being forced to engage in another real estate transaction! Please, listen! This is a financially irresponsible transaction because you don't have any income to make the payments, and it will artificially inflate prices for the rank-and-file, who I so dearly love! Please! Please, don't shoot! Just make the commission check out to cash and GO!"

Yes, Bend area Realtors are a selfless lot, who are finally able recover from the horrors of collecting huge commission checks from those bloodthirsty predators. My heart goes out to them.

Ah well. It's been a slow week, and I am basically waiting for David Fosters data to give a more complete picture of what happened in May. One thing seems clear, it was dead slow. May was actually slower than April, something I thought might happen, but I didn't really expect. May is NEVER slower than April. NEVER. 14.69 months of inventory vs just over 4 months in May 2006. And thus starts the Summer Selling Season In Bend.

Or should I say, The Summer Staring Season.

69 comments:

Anonymous said...

I saw a good FOR-SALE sign the other day it said ...

"IF YOU DONT BUY MY HOUSE, ME AND YOU WILL BE HOMELESS"

Nows there is a Bend-Oregon Motto.

Anonymous said...

I think this just goes to show what a 'normal' market is in Bend without all the speculating. Now, a few more months of these numbers and we will should see some serious price drops as Bend realizes that this bubble was national and it is not different here.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

the mix of new homes could bring between 14,000 and 17,500 people, he said.

I forgot to mention the paradox of this quote, although there is a strong belief that it's true. There is a very prevalent mindset that "if you build it, they will come" when it comes to homebuilding in Cent OR. For validation, I suggest you take a trip to Ashwood, OR in 5 years. They plan on building over 5,000 homes in this sleepy little town of 120 souls.

People don't say, "Hey, did you hear! They're building homes in Ashwood! Pack our stuff, we're off to occupy a house!"

This mentality is just strange, but it seems to permeate Cent OR. Build homes = People Will Buy Homes.

I disagree. People move for JOBS... home buying is merely a by-product. Have you ever known a single human who ever moved somewhere BECAUSE they were building homes? Not me. When you think about it for 2 seconds it's completely idiotic, but you can read it in The Bulletin in black & white.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I'm sure we are all crying crocodile tears for Bends poor Realtors.

Anonymous said...

I went to a lot of those Saturday Open Houses.

During the Open Houses, I feel sorry for the Realtors. But when I get home and open a beer, I smile and smile.

--T

Anonymous said...

It's good that we're now on to Redmond, while the below may have been construed as a total joke, the subjects themselves are all 100% accurate, I was just with some policy folk in Redmond last week, and they're quite serious that the water park will be bigger and better than SeaWorld, they're seeing this as a way to get everyone driving the new bypass to stop and spend ALL their tourist dollars. I would really like to hear what everyone thinks about the bypass strategy, which has already started, and the plans for Redmond, and the Largest water park on the west-coast. Yes, the policy folk stressed over&over that the affordable homes was the strength of Redmond, and I agree in that flat town there are lots of $50k shacks selling for $250k, that will soon be selling for $150k, which is still a lot of money in a town with less than $50k household income.

****

The new Water-Park in Redmond will turn Bend around.

With endless supplies of water, and the best banana belt weather in Oregon. Redbend/Bend will become the international destination. The folks that brought us Mt. Bachelor say their water park will keep all the high paid ski employees around during the summer.

It doesn't get any better, we live in the best of times. City of Redmond has an infinite supply of cash and credit the sky is the limit. When the new bypass is completed this fall, downtown Redmond will be like Aspen. The central-oregon irrigation ditch through downtown Redmond will create a new 'drake park'.

I love central oregon, best place in the world to invest ALL your 401k, why put you lifesavings into the stock market when you can put your money into heaven.

Anonymous said...

I've been to Sea World. It has all kinds of things going on. Shows with whales and seals and sea lions and penguins and birds of prey. Heck, I even saw Benji there doing a show (what he was doing at Sea World, I'll never know).

Is this thing really going to be better than Sea World? Or is it just going to be a water park?

Why the hell would you put a major attraction in the middle of nowhere?

Anonymous said...

Is this serious? A waterpark...like Seaworld? I don't live there but isn't it freezing cold in Bend and Redmond a lot of the year? how would the animals survive?

Are the wise ones of the city council of Redmond really talking about a waterpark?

Anonymous said...



Is this serious? A waterpark...like Seaworld? I don't live there but isn't it freezing cold in Bend and Redmond a lot of the year? how would the animals survive?



The wise-ones, have already signed the paper, and the project has started, the bypass is already 1/2 done on the north end of town.

The World-Class-Water-Sea-Park of Redmond, is intended to an eight wonder of the world, don't laugh about doing this shit in the desert, as VEGAS does this shit every day in the desert.

Another thing is that FOUR NEW GOLF course's have been ok'd in the Redmond area, BIG GOLF COURSES, and I'm hearing that priny-vile is claiming about water, there's going to be a BIG fucking water war soon.

The sacred ones, that you call the wise ones, while the puppets are city-council and county-commissioners, the owners are a who's who of EDCO { see website for tombstone }.

The principal idea is that I was told is that the bypass will take you right by the Water-Park, and nobody will pass, everyone will stop.

Regarding the issues of cold-weather, this is a manufacturing consent deal, first you authorize $5million for the initial, then when its 'realized' that you need a cover, ... Then you ask for more, This is how the OHSU tram in PDX went from $5million to $50 million, by incrementalism.

Like ALL these projects in Oregon, the folks that will make the money are the construction folks, but they're always out-of-state, bechtel, halliburton, ...

The bypass plan for downtown is fascinating, they're going to convert the whole downtown to be 'bend-like', including a drake-park with water from the irrigation canal.

There's going to be one BIG water water war. Given that ALL the farm land is worth MORE as CONDOS, I doubt anyone will care. Given that ALL the farm land is worth MORE as golf courses I doubt anyone will care.

Another interesting point, the Redmond City Council Plan, this is what they told me, while the counterparts down in Bend are just reactionary liberal's. An interesting observation. I would see the folks that run Bend are cowardly GIMPS, and that the folks that run Redmond are all related by blood.

My humble opinion of Redmond for the last forty has always been that it was the Beaverton of Bend, Arghh .... Redmond has some BIG fucking plans.

Redmond has ALL the money they need, and has 100% commitment to implement any project that EDOC requires.

We live in interesting times, again the Inland-Desert-SeaWorld-of-Redmond is a done deal. It makes about as much sense as "The Shire of Bend", but then again, that also got a TONE of international press, something that EDCO needs very badly right now to cover their investments.

Anonymous said...


The reason Silicon Valley kicks tail, and always will, is that education is cheap, and one can better their life at any time. As a result, high school dropouts end up with accounting degrees and MBAs, and achieve financial success.


It's not very often that you see someone with intelligence and insight on this forum, sadly IHTBYB blew this comment off, but I'll not.

There is a 100% truth to this, in California you can rob a bank, and get ten years and come out with a College Degree.

I know some gals, that got knocked up at fourteen, became prostitutes and through the welfare system, worked their way to becoming lawyers. In California they have some really great programs to get high-school drop-outs on their feet.

I think that IHTBYB has soft-skin for MBA bashing, but I 100% agree with the poster an MBA ain't worth shit, unless its from Harvard, and then only if the graduate is willing to work her/her ass off.

In Oregon getting an MBA from PSU, is a bad joke.

One of the more interesting things that came out of the IHTBYB's response is that he/she inferred they were an MBA. I can see this in their writing style, they actually care about commas, spelling, periods, and hyphenation. ... For us with scientific degrees, we call these anal types 'bean counters'.

It's good that there is a good mix of folk in this forum. This is a good thing.

I think its quite easy for someone with low intelligence and got into drugs as a child, and dropped out of high-school to get on the degree program in Prison ... Once you got your BA, then most of these folks find that you have to have a 'masters' to move up the artificial hoop chain. This type of folk wanting to take the path of minimum effort of course gets an MBA, don't worry IHTBYB a Masters-in-Education even requires LESS IQ, at least in Oregon.

My reason for the above response is this guy appears to be from outside of Bend, but enjoys reading this blog. I think this is also a thing, to have young kids who care about the USA to be involved in the discussion.

In summary his point was not that being a high-school dropout was the key to getting an MBA, it was just that in Calif it is EASY for high-school dropouts to get in a BA->MBA prison/welfare program. An MBA doesn't mean shit in CA everyone has one, and everyone knows a business idiot that has one.

The only good MBA school is Harvard because they study failure. Most of other schools just play games and develop team skills. Note that the best businessmen like Buffet, Gates, ... don't have an MBA, many are college drop-outs.

The KEY to business, is to emulate success and work your ass for for ten years, and invest.
The purpose of an MBA is 90% for government obfuscation, and in the private sector they're used like lawyers for obfuscation as well.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

As a result, high school dropouts end up with accounting degrees and MBAs, and achieve financial success.

This is the quote, nothing about robbing a bank. And I'm not sure how much I would support a system that rewards prostitution or robbery as the first step in starting your career.

My reason for the above response is this guy appears to be from outside of Bend, but enjoys reading this blog. I think this is also a thing, to have young kids who care about the USA to be involved in the discussion.

Uhhhhh. OK.

Anywho... I also wonder about the viability of the Redmond Seaworld. As far as it being freezing, I thought I read it would have retractable roof. Even so... going to a water park in the dead of Winter, roof or not, just isn't high on my list of "fun" stuff to do.

I agree that it will be "The Shire" of Redmond: built by people with a very poor understanding of what is demanded. It's just a very strange idea. "If you build it, they will come", only works in the movies. I mean I live 20 miles from the thing, and that's too far, even if it was free. And I guarantee entry fees will be damn high.

This bubble is putting some really stupid ideas in peoples heads.

Anonymous said...

Yup, it is suppossed to be an indoor boondoggle during the winter.

Anonymous said...

Parents are always looking for things to do with their kids during the winter here in Central Oregon -- the waterpark will be a big hit with kids.

Anonymous said...

A retractable roof over a water park? Have any of the planners been to a Sea World? A Sea World is acres and acres and acres. Might as well build a domed city.

A few years ago, I read articles about Central Oregon having water shortages if the population kept growing. Well, the population did keep growing, and now everyone acts as if we're fine for water.

What's the deal?

Anonymous said...

A few years ago, I read articles about Central Oregon having water shortages if the population kept growing.

That's unlikely because water rights are tightly regulated in Central Oregon. In order to build a new resort the developers need to buy water rights from someone else, usually a farmer. An acre of houses or golf course turf actually uses less water than an acre of farmland because farming is so water-intensive here.

Bend Economy Man said...

About Redmond's plans...

I don't think a waterpark is a bad idea, per se. But when I'd like to see a waterpark built in response to local demand for a waterpark. Have they done the marketing studies where they show the plans to some focus groups locally and say "if we build this waterpark, would you be willing to pay X dollars to go there?"

But I think it's safe to say no such study has been done.

I agree wholeheartedly with Paul's idea, which is that development has to be in response to demand, not to create it.

With the waterpark, you either have to build a cheesy roadside waterpark open 4-5 months a year, which gets thrashed by the elements the other 7-8 months of the year, with the idea that it's a good, affordable alternative for families in the summer.

Or you go nuts, build what is for Central Oregon the ultimate waterpark, with retractable roof and so on, and hope that tourists driving through can't resist stopping in.

But thing is, the tourists are probably from somewhere that HAS waterparks, and even if Redmond has something that makes locals' jaws drop, the first words out of the Orange County brat's mouth are going to be "this waterpark sucks."

Redmond and Prineville and the rest of Central Oregon seem to think that somehow the lack of houses, waterparks and other shit ALREADY BUILT has somehow resulted in this being a sparsely-populated, not-overly-wealthy area. Not that this shit hasn't been built because it makes no SENSE in a sparsely-populated, not-overly-wealthy area.

What Central Oregon needs is a good hockey rink. Build that, Redmond. Hard to fuck up a hockey rink. They come in one size.

I just hope that whatever they do, and whatever else local dreamers do, the financing is locked in to take it through to completion no matter what happens in the interim. Because otherwise I foresee a lot of 3/4-built eyesores on the horizon.

When I hear about Prineville having 7,000 homesites in the works and Redmond with 5,000 or what have you, I'm like "who are you building this for?" Because if there was this great yearn on the part of thousands of people to live there, they'd live there. It's not hard to buy some land in Redmond or Prineville and build a house on it - the local building departments would LOVE if you would do that.

Too much of C.O. development these days is based on what CAN be done, not on what NEEDS to be done. Of course you can buy hundreds of acres in Redmond or Prineville and plat it out. What are these towns gonna do, turn you DOWN?

But I think the number of people nationwide who want to live in Prineville is more-or-less equal to the current population of Prineville, plus or minus a few hundred people each year. Building a shitload of houses isn't going to change that.

Bend Economy Man said...

I'm sorry but I'm sitting here laughing at Redmond's / Prineville's idea of the kitchen-table conversation in San Whereevero, California:

Him: Sweetie, let's move to Prineville?

Her: Whatville?

Him: Prineville, Oregon. It's a town in a basin about 45 miles away from Bend, which you know is an outdoor paradise.

Her: Whatville?

Him: Prineville's got great access to the Ochoco National Forest and Prineville Reservoir, which has great catfish fishing and has almost no severe algae problem 2 out of the 4 months in which you can swim in it, a great high school rodeo team and a passable municipal golf course. They're even in the process of opening a movie theater there.

Her: Whatville?

Him: They have houses there.

Her: Houses?! Why didn't you say so in the first place? I thought you meant we'd be living in our car. Let's pack up our stuff and go!

Anonymous said...

Well, to this new Bend resident(just got out of military but have family in California), this thread is interesting.

First off, the water park idea is hysterical...but you need to look at the Fort Rapids Waterpark Resort in Columbus, Ohio (fortrapids.com). It is combined with the Holiday Inn. A friend went there and had a blast...nice concept. Not sure if Central Oregon has the tourist traffic to support that.

On education:
My brother went to CalTech and is earning his PhD studying astrophysics at one of the best schools in the country. My hubby and I have masters. So, we are somewhat tuned in to the need of education.

I do see a lack of higher education opportunities here in central oregon. Having lived all over the country, it is similar to other places. I don't see as many "native Bend" families emphasizing education. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to matter too much if you have higher education here...unless you are the doctor, lawyer, etc. type. I can see it hard to encourage your child to pursue higher education when they won't be able to get a job when they are done.

We are very aware of what message we are sending to our kiddos...trying to instill the need to reach their potential and all that cheese.

I enjoy the discussions...

Anonymous said...

>>Fort Rapids Waterpark Resort in Columbus, Ohio

Yeah. That's the thing. Ohio has a zillion people and a zillion tourists. Still, it finally lost its Sea World.

Bend Economy Man said...

The current generation of 20-30-something Bendites (who grew up in Bend) is different from the previous ones because they are at their career-building years in the height of the Bend boom.

Previously, you had the choice of going into the mills or the woods, or some other trade, or leaving to go to college and then either staying away or trying to find gainful employment in Bend with a degree. The top-dog positions of big landowner or big millowner or big newspaper publisher or whatever were sinecures handed down within families.

But if you graduated from a Bend high school in, say, 1995, you could make more money staying in Bend and working in construction / development / RE sales than you could going off to college getting a degree and coming back. I don't want to think of what happens to a lot of these folks as things slow down in those businesses.

Bend is one of those USA towns where you cannot complete a full life cycle of childhood-school-college-career. It loses people to attrition normally (it barely increased in population from the '50s through the '70s) so this inflow of outsiders isn't just for RE, it's for the town's viability, period.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Him: They have houses there.

Her: Houses?! Why didn't you say so in the first place? I thought you meant we'd be living in our car. Let's pack up our stuff and go!


It could happen. I remember driving through Pahrump NV, a town that seemed to spring up out of the ground for no Earthly purpose, except for people to occupy the homes there.

Well, maybe it did have One purpose: It was the first place you could get a drink after dragging your parched, sorry ass out of Death Valley towards Vegas. But even so, they didn't need all those people & houses, just to give me a drink.

Anonymous said...

I don't want to think of what happens to a lot of these folks as things slow down in those businesses.

This is NOT hard to guess what happened to Web-Developers just a few years ago??

From 1992 to 2001 a high-school drop out could get 10k-50k for developing a website for a TV repair shop, the fact that nobody needed the website is aside.

Then after the DOTCOM crash overnight NOBODY wanted web-site-developers. What happened to them?? They can be found by the hundreds in Seattle, Portland, SanFran Coffee shops. They're all waiting for the times to return. They're NOT willing to work for $7/hr having once made $100k/yr. So they go on permanent unemployment, and live five to a house with their bud's, and eventually move into their girlfriends house, who eventually buys them a house, ...

This is what will happen to all the Bend Kids that made BIG bucks after high-school from 2001->2005. For now they're just watching the wages drop as everyone is competing for a few jobs,

Website development went from $50/hr to $5/hr in one year after 2001, all because there were too many people chasing the lack of work.

TV repair shops, and beauty parlors found out that the web didn't bring in new customers, so by 2002 they quit paying to have the website upgraded, it was game over.

I find IN GENERAL that when the young get easy BIG money without an education, they're spoiled for the remainder of their lives, and expect those big-bucks, having gotten used to SUSHI, its real hard to go back to micky-D's.

They don't want to learn a new school, I know folks in there thirty's that still consider themselves a web-developer, even though they have been doing odd jobs for the past five years. ..

Anonymous said...


>>Fort Rapids Waterpark Resort in Columbus, Ohio

Yeah. That's the thing. Ohio has a zillion people and a zillion tourists. Still, it finally lost its Sea World.


That's not the point, its never the point, the point is to create jobs. Redmond Police, CityHall, and Fire are over 60% related by blood and marriage. Many of the jobs for building the water park will go to family members that aren't working in the Government. Taxpayers will be paying for the Bonds for Years to come.

Even if this water park makes it five years, before it gets filled, and becomes OUR 100'th golf-course ten's of million's of dollars will be made in Redmond. A whole new bunch of boss-hogs will be created.

Look at it this way, an entire family tree of a few kettles, mcCoys, hatFields, run Redmond, and they have been stuck running the city for years, this water-park and BYPASS is a chance to make Millions of Dollars, and retire. Just like the folks did in Bend from 2001->2005.

Nobody, and I mean NOBODY gives a rat's ass about five years from now, as they'll all be in Hawaii golfing.

One of my favorite Redmond Policy excuses for the WaterPark is that it will keep all those high-paying jobs @ bachelor around during summer months. I can see it now, all the folks that run the lifts at Bachelor during the winter will be selling little fish at the water-park.

Only in CentralOregon.

Anonymous said...


As a result, high school dropouts end up with accounting degrees and MBAs, and achieve financial success.

This is the quote, nothing about robbing a bank. And I'm not sure how much I would support a system that rewards prostitution or robbery as the first step in starting your career.


The discussion was about how great the California education system is ..

Look at this way ..

1.) female, get pregnant at fourteen, become prostitute, lose children, and social welfare pays your way to law-school, don't laugh I have a relative that did this,

2.) male, rob a bank while in high-school, get 5-10 in prison, come out with a college degree, get a shitty job, and go back to school to get your mba { I think that this is our poster had in mind }

3.) female, work hard, remain virgin, get into $120k of debt, get shitty job, ... get married spend remainder of life paying off college loan

4.) male, work hard, get into $120k of college debt, get shitty job, go back and get MBA, and increase college debt to $300K, spend rest of life paying off college loan,

Now of 1,2,3,4 which would be the easiest ride?

In california crime really does pay, and remember the more of them we let in Oregon, the more likely we'll inherit their education programs.

Lisa said...

"I think this just goes to show what a 'normal' market is in Bend without all the speculating. Now, a few more months of these numbers and we will should see some serious price drops as Bend realizes that this bubble was national and it is not different here."

Sales are dropping off in many, many markets across the U.S. I have a feeling a lot of them are about to learn what a "normal" market is.

Guaranteed appreciation off the table. Tighter lending standards. Gas, healthcare, grocery costs going through the roof. Massive amounts of inventory that will only get bigger once the foreclosures really get rolling. It's the perfect storm.

Anonymous said...

Not to mention the slowdown in construction. A city like Bend which is almost entirely dependent on real estate and construction for its better paying jobs is going to spell trouble for a lot of folks, me included. I have gotten out of debt and am trying to come up with a plan if and when things stop. My guess is ,by fall when there are still a ton of houses sitting unsold, Building will be dead by november. So many folks I meet on jobs are completely clueless as to what's around the corner.

Anonymous said...

It appears that the blog commenting has come to an abrupt halt.

This is fairly common when things start coming to close to home.

It's only funny when the other guys is getting screwed.

If you read this forum long enough you'll realize that you are screwed. Then you must make a decision.

1.) Get out of Bend.
2.) Turn off your computer.
3.) Take up Scientology.

Most folks cannot do #1 because they cannot sell the house, to get a down-payment to move on.
#3 will get you into a whole new set of friends, but costs you money. #2 will save you money in electricity,

It has been well established at this point that the 'problem' in Bend is-was caused by 99% of the inhabitants, thus you the reader are most at fault.

Now if we could only find someone else to blame.

Anonymous said...

I thought this was interesting from today's Oregonian. Ouch:

Former Trail Blazer takes a hard charge
Real estate - Scottie Pippen sells his West Hills estate for $1 million less than he bought it for in 2000
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
DYLAN RIVERA
Scottie Pippen, the former Trail Blazers star, has found out the hard way that selling a high-end house for a profit is no slam dunk even in Portland's healthy real estate market.

The retired basketball legend and his wife, Larsa, sold their 2.28-acre West Hills estate for $2.95 million last month -- down from the $4 million they paid in 2000. That's right, after seven years in the region's strongest housing market in a generation, they lost $1 million.

What's up with that?

As the Pippens -- who didn't want to comment -- have learned, it's not easy to sell a house in the Portland area for more than $2 million. It can take years to find a buyer willing to go head to head at such a lofty asking price.

It's even tougher to sell a house that's larger than many neighborhood grocery stores. The Pippens' house encompassed 18,700 square feet -- nearly half the size of a downtown city block.

"You're trying to find a buyer that wants that location in a house that big," said Veronica Story, the RE/MAX Equity Group Inc. agent who sold the house. "Those buyers are few and far between."

Built in 1996 by Jerry Reeves, the home gives the appearance of an old-fashioned estate. Beyond the gated entrance and lush trees, visitors find a circular driveway that surrounds a fountain.

It includes modern amenities any jock would love. A detached building houses an indoor sport court, a weight room, aerobics room, fully wired media room with a kitchen, a locker room with a steam shower and sauna.

The six bedrooms and six baths (and three half-baths) are configured in a way that many baby boomers find appealing: the ability to live on the main floor, with the master bedroom, and forget about the upper floor until guests come by.

That configuration was a plus for the new owners, Florida transplants Razvani and Felicia Andreescu, whose children are grown, said Story, who also represented them. The couple have bought Beacon Hill vineyard in Gaston and are building a winery there.

The Pippens moved out of the house in 2003, after the Chicago Bulls hired him back from the Blazers. They didn't list it for sale until about a year later for $3.9 million. Story marketed the home from October 2004 until the offer came in January. The sale closed May 1.

It's not that high-end houses are not selling for high prices, said Justin Harnish, a luxury home specialist with Realty Trust Group Inc. It's just that the Pippens' house was perhaps too big for its own good.

"I just think it's an anomaly," he said. "It's just so massive."

Anonymous said...

That house isn't all THAT massive over here - there are quite a few of them south of Lake Oswego, around Pete's Mountain. But they do take a long time to sell. Scottie Pippen is a great guy. I ran into him at Ruth's Chris one evening. A total gentleman.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The retired basketball legend and his wife, Larsa, sold their 2.28-acre West Hills estate for $2.95 million last month -- down from the $4 million they paid in 2000.

The Pippens' house encompassed 18,700 square feet


That's cheap! Only $160/sf! You'd be hard pressed to find a house that cheap in Bend.

It appears that the blog commenting has come to an abrupt halt.

It's a slow news week dude. Plus sometimes ya have to work.

It has been well established at this point that the 'problem' in Bend is-was caused by 99% of the inhabitants, thus you the reader are most at fault.

Wow. Do you own a newspaper?

Anonymous said...

There is no problem in Bend as long as you didn't speculate on Real Estate.

Anonymous said...

Well, sure there is a problem, if you depended on that speculation to provide employment - say, if you are in the trades, or were the last one hired at a place dependent on housing. And if you didn't buy in the overinflated last year or so. If you did, and you have a good, stable job, then no, you don't have a problem.

It can't be much fun. But it might be, later, for folks looking for a first home, because they might be able to afford one soon.

Anonymous said...

Haiku

1)
Bend home prices fall
Real estate suicide watch begins
Rats jumping the ship

2)
Prices on the rise
Buy now or you're a sucker
Who will never own

Anonymous said...

"People move for JOBS... home buying is merely a by-product."

People sometimes move to an area for other reasons -- lifestyle, recreation, etc. But unless they have some means of support they don't last long.

My wife and I moved to Bend 21 years ago because we wanted to live in a small town (HAH!) away from the sound and fury of Silicon Valley. But I found a job here BEFORE we moved.

I'm always astounded by the morons who move here "for the lifestyle" with no job or other income source, run through their savings in a few weeks or months and end up having to move out. Bizarre.

Anonymous said...

Blame Californians
They drove up our home prices
Hobbits built The Shire

Anonymous said...

"female, get pregnant at fourteen, become prostitute, lose children, and social welfare pays your way to law-school, don't laugh I have a relative that did this"

Three words: Good for her.

Or would you prefer that she remain a prostitute, pop out a few more kids, maybe become a meth addict, and be a burden on society all her life?

Anonymous said...

Female prostitute
Jail -then becomes a lawyer
Both same profession

Anonymous said...

I moved to PDX for affordable housing, from Silicon Valley, without a job, with about $3K in savings, a wife and son. She couldn't find work; I couldn't either from a long distance. We ended up OK (and I live on five acres in a tin can today) but I was willing to do anything to support my family. We never considered Bend because we wanted to buy, and not be tied to one employer (or a few).

Anonymous said...

The lunatics in Bend
Thought it would never end
They build more and more
With their newspaper whore
And they tried and they tried to pretend


How could it happen
That we are not Aspen?
Every newspaper reader
Knows that our shit smells sweeter
Why worry about jobs
When we have Les Schwab
And a usually empty Theatre

Anonymous said...

The market can't be dead
Because the Bulletin said
That in-migration
Is a sure salvation
From the fate that realtors dread

Anonymous said...

Slower growth expected for local economy
Prediction culled from index gauging CEO confidence

By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: June 07. 2007 5:00AM PST

Despite a housing market slowdown and rising fuel prices, Central Oregon CEOs expect the summer to bring business growth, albeit slower growth than they experienced last year, according to the results of an economic confidence survey released Tuesday.

Members of Vistage International, a worldwide CEO membership organization for executives of small- to midsize companies, responded to the Vistage CEO Confidence Index, a quarterly survey that gauges executives' opinions of economic health. The Vistage index dropped to 90.5 in the second quarter, from 95.4 in the first quarter. It also was down from 97.8 in the second quarter of 2006.

The confidence level has a base of 100, established in 2003, and anything below that signifies a relatively sagging future for the economy. The index hasn't been above 100 since the first quarter of 2006, after which it has generally declined.

Mid Oregon Federal Credit Union President Bill Anderson remains optimistic about Central Oregon's economy, even though his business has slowed since this time last year.

"Nobody really expects an economic fall or downturn as much as a slowing down," said Anderson, a Vistage member. "(Growth) is just more moderate."

Consumer lending has slowed, Anderson said, which he suspects is tied to higher costs like gas prices making consumers less likely to borrow money for other things.

Consumer borrowing is seasonal, he added, and once schools close for summer, he expects to see more activity than in the first half of the year.

"People are a little more conservative," Anderson said. "People are saving a little more money - deposit amounts are up."

At Bend's Professional Air, partner and General Manager Brandon Wilcox said he has been surprised to see "dramatic growth" in the second quarter this year.

"The correction in the real estate market and the slow-moving home (sales) in the local area makes it seem like the economy isn't quite as strong (as the previous year)," said Wilcox, also a Vistage member. "But we've seen a drastic pickup."

Pro Air's charter business remains busy flying Central Oregonians throughout the country, and the company's aviation fuel sales are on track with Wilcox's projections.

Fuel prices are more than $4 per gallon, which Wilcox expected would hurt sales and deter pilots from flying as often. But customers continue buying the fuel and flying planes, leaving no negative impact behind, he said.

Aviation fuel is always more expensive than automotive fuel, Wilcox noted, but prices ebb and flow as they do at vehicle pumps.

"From our perspective, the economy is good and strong," he said. "Though, with low unemployment rates, finding quality help is an ongoing challenge."

Globally, Vistage CEOs agree that staffing is a top concern, as it has been since last year. A third of the firms surveyed cited hiring as their most important issue in 2007, far more so than cash flow, the economy, growth and health care costs, according to the report.

The unemployment rate in Deschutes County was 4.6 percent in April, which means as employers ramp up hiring, competition increases for the best employees. Anything less than 5 percent is considered a virtually fully employed work force since many of those without work are not considered employable.

Wilcox has four positions open at Professional Air: two mechanics and two flight instructors.

The hardest positions to fill are for mechanics, he said, because wages can't compensate for the pricey housing market and cost of living in Bend. Mechanics make $30,000 to $75,000 per year, depending on experience, Wilcox said, adding that he's fighting the high cost of living by slowly increasing wages.

"Kids coming fresh out of college will make in the $30,000 to $35,000 range," he said. "It's difficult to make ends meet on (that) single income."

Anonymous said...

Half the people here
Came in from elsewhere
But bash newcomers

Anonymous said...

would you prefer that she remain a prostitute, pop out a few more kids, maybe become a meth addict, and be a burden on society all her life?

You'll love this, she was in out of jail so often she began to appreciate the 'magic' that lawyers do.

A lawyer helped her secure her ex-husbands pension on a technicality. Her ex from ten years earlier had remarried, and the widow was to get the pension, but a lawyer figured out a way for the widow to be denied the pension, and she got it all, even though it was the widow that had got the ex the job at her fathers company!

After getting the pension she decided that making money in the legal biz, was easier laying on your back. She discovered that it is possible to take anyones money that you wish, all with the law 100% behind you. When that realization was made she entered law school, and never paid a dime.

Today she reports to a Governor in an unmentioned State, where she is a legal adviser. She is a very wealthy woman, on her fifth marriage.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Thanks for the Bulletin article... and good lawyer-bashing haiku's. Although I feel bad for the prostitute who had to lower her self worth so dramatically... and become a lawyer.

Mechanics make $30,000 to $75,000 per year, depending on experience

That's a pretty good spread, which tells me the guy is basically always offering $30K, and NEVER $75K no matter what the experience. $75K in Bend is very doable... $30K ain't.

David Fosters data is out & I'm going to write a post over the weekend for Monday. May was SLOW, but prices held steady -- two facts that I think are closely linked. And I think this is how we can gauge RE in Bend going forward: If prices are high, volume will be low. If prices fall, volume will pick up.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If prices are high, volume will be low. If prices fall, volume will pick up.

This is stupid 1st year Econ, but a fact lost on many around here who think the bubble-nomics is still alive -- dramatically rising volume & prices FOREVER.

This won't happen again for awhile. Realtors talking about a return to a "normal" market is right in a sense: outrageous prices of almost any good typically means much lower volume. I think they think we can hold todays prices... and watch volume recover. No way.

I think we may actually have the worst of all Worlds coming: Our nosebleed home prices are well known, and anyone driving/flying in for a job interview is NOT going to be impressed with their wages. I think inbound migration will actually reverse, people will start to leave, home prices will fall, building will stop AND wages will fall.

Returning to normalcy will mean reverting to 2001-2 norms... and that is not good, given Bend was around 50K people back then vs around 80K now.

Anonymous said...

I think this is how we can gauge RE in Bend going forward: If prices are high, volume will be low. If prices fall, volume will pick up.



I have been saying for months, that if prices hit the sweet spot, that pdx 'investors' will move in, there are lots of folks that want a week-end in bend, that have been put off by the high prices, we should have a buying range by late summer-fall,

With cash right now you can buy all over the westside for $250k cash, and all over the eastside for $200k cash.

Note, I just got this today from a pdx Mortgage broker, they're calling this bloody-thursday, I don't know if you all know, but UK interest went to 4% yesterday, and the fed will soon follow 30yr FM is 6.5% and rising quickly, look for a blood-path a variable reset pain ASAP.

Mortgage brokers are trying to renegotiate on locks, looks like 7% by end of the month for 30yr.

Anonymous said...

If prices are high, volume will be low. If prices fall, volume will pick up.

Easy money will not reappear for a generation. IO, No Down, 120% HELOC, ... are over,

If prices' fall 50% there will be some buying, but note the amount of people that ...

a.) Have money,
b.) Know even where Bend is, ...
c.) Have wanted to buy in Bend,

Could only be in the 100's, again how many people have lots of cash, no where Bend is, and have always wanted to buy in Bend, if they could afford it? Not many, on top of that GAS costs a fortune now, and so the second home is looking not like such a good idea.

Bend is currently at least 40% over-priced, there will be no Bargain in Bend until we reach 2001 prices, and then honestly I would say that 1998 would be a sweet spot. By this I mean that if Aug2005 was peaks shoulder-left, and fall2006 was peak shoulder-right, we're already down 20% whether our median number crunchers want to admit it or NOT, fact is things that had ask of $400k in 2005, will now sell for $280k, .e.g. if its a cash deal.

Mortgage company's I know are saying that 50% of all deals right now are NOT meeting the appraised value of purchase, this means you ante or walk, and most walk,

I agree with IHTBYB that this isn't econ-101, where build-and-they'll-come, or supply-creates-demand.

We're talking about a town where 1/2 the houses are seasonally empty by choice, or inability to sell and/or rent. We're talking about a town where the number of 'good-jobs' are non-existent.

YES BEND has a LOW un-employment, just ask long-board-louies, he had to cut breakfast, because he can't get min-wage-young-moron's to work for cheap. Yes, there are lots of jobs at $7/hr in Bend, but you can count the $20/hr++ jobs on one hand if you could find them.

Lastly, prices became insane because of NOTHING-DOWN, folks were playing with OPM, and that is OVER, now there is NO support system for insane prices, so this fall & winter we should see sanity. Next year the government will have to off incentives to rescue us from the recession, so things should have stabilized by then. If the poly-tick-ians, want to win office, they'll have to make things good, and they will, this is a historic fact.

Anonymous said...

I heard an interesting story yesterday from a buddy.

He went to the place to get mexicans as he does everyday or so .. He does a lot of demolition work.

Today he found that NOBODY would work for less than $10/hr, ok, ... Then he took the folks back to the job site, messy tear down of old dry wall. He went out for awhile to do an errand, and his mexicans were GONE, again I say GONE.

In ten years he has never seen this before.

So what we have now is folks that will not take less than $10/hr, remember these folks are here to feed their starving family's down south, and the dollar is dropping like a rock, which means MORE dollars are needed to accomplish their goal.

Then on the WHITE side, you have sub-cons going from $45/hr to $30/hr to $15/hr, the squeeze is now near. The sub-cons I know will work for $10/hr if thats the only work, the mexicans may or may not budge, as their costs are going up even higher to wire money home, and take the bus south.

My years of experience tell me to expect a few mexicans to move out of Oregon, and expect the white guys to start working for less.

More interesting is will our white guys walk off the job? Probably not as they have cell phones, and references, the mexicans typically are found on a daily basis and rather hard to tie down, but then again they're always running from the INS.

In summary I expect our central oregon mexican problem to be taking care of itself in the construction end of the biz shortly.

Anonymous said...



Half the people here
Came in from elsewhere
But bash newcomers



No, we don't bash in bend, we separate you from your money.

Come to Bend, ...

1.) We'll take your money.
2.) We'll take your daughter(s) and wife.
3.) We'll make you spend your saving's, the first year your here, we will get all of it.
4.) We'll send you packing back, without your daughters and wife, we'll even throw in alimony and child support.

Yes, come to Bend you foreigners, and bring all yee money, Bend is the great equalizer, all rich become poor men in Bend.

Lastly, just try to find a women in Bend after we take yours, they're harder to find than a job that pay's over $15/hr.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone have access to that "Lease rates changing the face of downtown" article?

Regarding Illegal Aliens (they're not just undocumented... it's ILLEGAL for them to be here), when I got here in '01, there were nothing but Whites. I mean, really... seeing a black person was a true novelty... still is. Hispanics are a different story. I see Hispanics everywhere now. It looks like 95% of the growth of Bend has been Hispanic in the past 2 years. It feels like 15-20% of Bend is now Hispanic, which if you compute it out, would account for almost all the growth going on here. And anecdotally, I'll bet the vast majority ARE here illegally. I meet very few that speak English.

Unfortunately, these people are highly exploitable, and are marginalizing themselves economically. They're basically low-grade fugitives without a real future.

And despite statements that people will take lowballs... I've heard the opposite enough to make me think different. On BendBB, some guy offered $325K for a place asking $350K, and they countered with full price. There are still one hell of a lot of nuts who are still trying to live the dream.

WAKE UP WHITE PEEPUL!

We're only selling a few hundred homes a month, from a sea of thousands of homes. 30%+ a year is over. Offers over your ask is OVER. OK, the dream is OVER!

Anonymous said...

It looks like 95% of the growth of Bend has been Hispanic in the past 2 years. It feels like 15-20% of Bend is now Hispanic, which if you compute it out, would account for almost all the growth going on here.

I wrote this a few months ago, but will mention again. A friend who is one of the largest builder's in Central-Oregon, told me a in his humble opinion, if it were NOT for the mexican and the sub-prime MTG biz, there would have been NO bend-bubble.

Thus you all better damn well bless, the mexican.

Nobody would have bought the little mill-shacks that needed major work, except the mexican, and this is true for priny, reddy, and bendy,

Alas IHTBYB has decoded the magic of going from 50k population to 80k, the mexican brother. What I like best about this is ALL we're ever told is that the RICH cali's are coming, no such truth, the truth is some of the poorest people on the planet are here struggling to feed their starving familys.

What does that make us?? Just another Kuwait.

The BEST part of this is that Mrs. Breeze keeps making condo's for all our incomers, ... Lastly, the REAL RICH are rascists from hell, They know that the MEXICAN population is the only growing pop in Bend, How long will this be ASPEN? The only folks who still think this is ASPEN is professional liars with something to sell.

Anonymous said...

On BendBB, some guy offered $325K for a place asking $350K, and they countered with full price. There are still one hell of a lot of nuts who are still trying to live the dream.

These 'nuts' are in the dozens, and the folks that have cash that want to buy in Bend are in the 100's,

Remember that oxymoron of a "fool and his money", is just that, and the greatest fool long ago bought in Bend. To suggest that fools are still coming is to suggest that the few left with cash are stupid, and the whole reason they still have cash, is that they're NOT stupid.


Lastly, I would read anything I saw on bendbb with a large grain of salt. It's largely kids screwing with your RE minds.

Anonymous said...

Nobody would have bought the little mill-shacks that needed major work, except the mexican, and this is true for priny, reddy, and bendy.

By mill shacks please tell me you mean a few old fixer ups here and there and not the old mill shacks on the west side. Once again we ask that bendbust aka. bilbo aka. lay the crack pipe down sober up just a bit because the only place I see Mexicans are in apartments and shacks lots of fixers in the crappy parts of DRW and on the eastside. Then again it is truly amazing what one can afford with 15 people living with you.

Anonymous said...

Then again it is truly amazing what one can afford with 15 people living with you.

Amazing isn't it just like your meth-house.

Anonymous said...

I see Mexicans are in shacks lots of fixers in the crappy parts of DRW and on the eastside.

Did he ever say the Mexicans were buying on Awbrey? If you had read instead of typing all day on BendBB and BendBeatingOff. The point is-was that the mexicans had bought the crappy shack's, by MILL-HOUSES, it was never intended to mean the crap right off old colorado.

In the old days these 'shacks' your talking about towards DRW and/or East-Bend were indeed occupied by mill-folk, back in the day.

Here I go again, and its real hard with the terminally retarded.

These shitty Mill houses in DRW, and EastBend and all over WestBend, were bought during the boom by Mexicans because they too like our white-trash bendbb could qualify for a mortgage in Bend.

The mexican's bought the shacks that nobody wanted, and this allowed the white-trash to move-up. Which created the bend-bubble where every pederast and such could and did flip houses.

Anonymous said...

Bingo! If the entry-level buyer cannot buy, the move-up buyer cannot sell. And up the chain we go. And if that happens outside Bend, say in CA, those folks cannot move to Bend. That leaves two markets: the second-home market, and the I'm-so-wealthy-I-don't-need-to-worry-about-it market. I would guess many second homes were bought on spec; after all, the MSM was pushing it. So where does this leave us? I believe it leaves us in deep poop for the moment, as those markets aren't really large.

Anonymous said...

Courtesy Ben Jones/Mail Tribune

By Greg Stiles
Mail Tribune
June 08, 2007
Jackson County's residential real estate market is going through a variety of fits, spurts and convulsions heading into the summer selling season.

The broad brush analysis is that median sales prices continue to dip from inflated high-water marks.

On the other hand, several readings indicate portions of the market are stubbornly resisting retreat. New construction sales prices in west Medford, for example, are substantially above where they were this time last year.

Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday show the median sales price of existing Jackson County homes declined 2.6 percent to $264,875, during a three-month period, March 1 to May 31, compared to prices for the same period in 2006 when the median was $272,000. For new construction sold during that three-month period, the countywide median declined 14.8 percent to $289,900 from $340,050, as builders backed away from high-end speculation houses.

After April sales broke a string of 20 consecutive months where the sales pace of single-family residences in urban areas declined, May proved that buyers think better bargains are still around the corner. Although there were 10 more sales than April, urban activity failed to crest the 200 mark let alone come close to the 224 deals made in May 2006.

"That kind of fluctuation shows that we're in a transition period, like the weather," said Medford appraiser Roy Wright. "We've been in 90s and it has cooled off, but we know warm weather is ahead."

As of June 1 there, the SOMLS reported 2,782 active listings — including condominiums and townhouses — 24 percent more than a year earlier.

"Some of it is people moving out of the area and needing to sell," said Rich Humphrey, managing broker at Coldwell Banker Pro West of Medford. "There are investors that bought during the rising market and are having difficulty renting them or may have a loan that's coming due. Some of those are subprime loans that need to be paid off soon. All of that leads to a buildup over time and the buying market hasn't come to the plate yet."

Humphrey pointed out homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range have perked up in the past two or three months.

"Lower-end prices have dropped under $200,000 and those are homes that first-timers can buy," Humphrey said. "That allows those owners to step up. But because a lot of that is investment inventory, landlords aren't going to necessarily buy another house, which keeps supply high and puts pressure on the market to be lower."

Countywide the median sales price for new construction grew to $297,000 last month, up from $286,700 in May 2006.

While the number of new construction sales has dwindled, the average days on market dropped during the previous three months to 116 days.

The median price for new homes grew on both sides of Bear Creek in Medford, rising by nearly 50 percent in west Medford.

Christy Estates, a 12-house subdivision on Kyle Street off Kings Highway built by George Cota, has sold half of its inventory.

Sarah Iverson of Windermere Investors Marketplace in Medford says the extras — both interior and landscaping — added to the homes have enticed buyers in the $260,000 to $269,000 range that mirrors the zone's median price.

"It's a little pocket behind larger home lots with park-like settings and gazebos," Iverson said. "George knew the market is slowing down and made the adjustment to step up the homes even though the margin is less."

Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 776-4463 or at business@mailtribune.com

Anonymous said...

I know quite a few investors, that about five years ago pooled thier money into 'low income housing' in Medford.

You cannot go wrong on that bet, note here that its 4X, an Oregon family is lucky to pull $60k, and 4 times 60k is $240k, and low and behold the homes are right there waiting for them.

That said, this is some real crap that if I were the investor I would sell and run, and if I were the builder I would sell and run, and if I were the buyer, I would be happy that I found a brand-new home in Orygun that I can afford.

For investors, I think the cheap land to be divided has been played, and given the old maxim buy on rumor, sell on news, I think this one has been played.

Don't hold your breath for low-income-housing in Central-Oregon. The folks that run Redmond are suggesting such, but I highly doubt that given this is "ASPEN", that folks really want to go in that direction.

BilboBend said...

How I learned to Love the Dog, or Bend's Keystone Cop's Find a Way to Meet the Quota

I don't have a dog, but I laughed my arse off tonight on my nightly bike-ride. I usually go up Phils-Trail in the evening, but tonight I did the river from downtown up towards the siphon upriver.

I usually stop at McKay Park on this section of the run to rest, enjoy the grass, and watch the Portage's as this is where you have to go around the little fall's at Colorado. They still have the old bridge for bicycles.

What struck me tonight is there was a cop hiding in the bushes by the sandy beach. This caused me to completely detour my ride, and watch with fascination what the cop was doing. This was no ordinary bends finest, this was the mother goose in florescent yellow.

Now before I get into extreme detail, let me say this everyone is always speeding in this town, and never stop for signs, yet I never see cops anywhere. Yet almost every friday eve they're in the bushes at Les-Schwab Amphitheature or McKay Park. You would think that on friday from 4pm to 6pm that there was police work some where in this town, but I think I have single handedly discovered the source of the entire BendCityPolice Budget.

So here I'm at McKay, there's the RV that's been parked there all week, where a bunch of homeless guys sleep, but by day they have taken over ALL the bushes below the falls on the McKay side, naw the cops weren't after them. Then there's is the constant line of boaters portaging the river, they're supposed to have life-preservers if they're under eighteen, I see them flow by and the cops don't make their move, ...

There is kids walking by with six-packs of PBR, clearly not of age, carrying their rafts, again the mounty's don't make their move. I might mention the actual rule is NO alcohol, but in this world of law-enforcement, selection is essential. You don't want to ticket a bikini, someone may think your an asshole.

Then it happens, the picture is clear here from the street comes a parent, child, and puppy. As soon as the they get near the river the leash comes off, and the stick goes in the water, and so does puppy. Then its flashing red-lights, and officer not-so-friendly T.Brown so they say jumps out. "YOUR LICENSE PLEASE", "GO SIT AT THE BENCH", then another, I think I'm watching a great fisheeman, Soon the whole picnic bench is full of folks with dogs, kids and folks screaming, and the cop turning red in the face. The basic technique seemed to have been ask for their drivers license and send them to the bench, and once it was full, to write tickets, and then repeat, ... back to the bushes...

I watch in amazement. After a little while I wander over on me bike, and wondering what's up, there is a young couple screaming at the cop, he's calling for back-up.

I inquire amongst the crowd what happened they tell me "DOG AT LARGE", now I know that Bend is the land of law enforcement, hell this is why we have NO illegals here, because in Bend NOBODY breaks the law. Bend is the town that the only place I have ever seen a cop is the donut shop. In fact I generally never see cops in Bend, with the exception of bikini-river-drive during the summer.

Now, out in the country "DOG AT LARGE" means rabies, and its time to bring out the guns. Every night that I go by McKay there are family's playing with FIDO at the park near the water. What pray tell happened tonight??

Once this cop had rounded up what appeared to be a dozen folks at the picnic bench, he started writing 'tickets', so I asked to see one from the folks so lucky, it said "5.252 DOG AT LARGE", BASE FINE $327", Now I thought to myself, there's not much more you can do on the road to get a $327 fine. The guy yesterday that caused I-5 in Portland to close for six hours, because he failed to use six tie-downs and used four, got a whopping $150 fine.

So here you have Bend Oregon, its a friday night, folks work all week long, they take the kids and wife down to the park, and play in the water, like they pretty do every eve, but NOT tonight Officer T.BROWN friendly is writing tickets.

I only watched this for little less than an hour, but I saw him write six tickets, that's almost $2,000 in revenue for the city. In my humble opinion that's $2,000/hr a cop in Bend can generate for the city all day long, all the while bikini watching, ONLY IN BEND.

The cop didn't look like a cop, he looked like a clown in a yellow rain suit. I guess this is why all the kids portaging didn't stash their beer.

It's clear that the cop was only there for BIG GAME, .e.g. PUPPY-DOG. I guess having McKAY park being a homeless camp is too dangerous for big-game cops, besides these guys in the bushes all have Pit-Bulls, and you can write tickets all day long, and never make the city a buck, as there folks don't have a nickel to their name.

This cop never once went into the bush where the homeless day-camp is and pulled out the off-leash pets down their, he just stayed near the sandy beach and waited for the typical afternoon crowd to arrive, where kids and pets cool-off everyday all summer, and its been this way for years. I noted that most of the folks he tickets were average looking middle class folk, not the kind of riff-raff you would expect a brave cop to alienate. Most cops are terrified of the homeless as they have nothing to lose, and are typically vietnam vets, who they themselves were professional killers. In this biz we call it 'professional courtesy', thus you'll not see bend's finest mess with homeless or meth-folk, only young couples with pet's & kid's.

When I got home I got on the Internet to figure what in the hell "DOG AT LARGE" meant, and what BCC 5.252 is-was, what I found is that to my surprise anyone in the CityOfBend that doesn't have a dog on a leash is subject to this law. The only exception is dog in a vehicle, within city limits, technically its not even clear to my reading the statue for Bend that you backyard is ok.


Why in the hell are cop's not on the road from 4-6 on friday? My guess is they're down there the same reason as me, its called bikini lookout.

I ride this ride a lot this time of year, and like I have mentioned, its been this way every friday from 4-6pm at either McKay or LesSchwab Amphitheature. Cops hiding looking for people that are throwing balls. They never go after the street people, e.g. homeless. It always the middle class folk. Most county's in Oregon post a priority list of what is considered BIG-GAME, but Bend has always been secret-secret.

My guess is that Mrs. Breeze has come down on city hall and said we want dat dar River-Corridor to be Condo friendly. There can be no regular k-mart working people and their spawn seen where there are condo's for sale. Of course the good cops of Bend are just following orders. Another item is that you want to sell River-Condos, you want two more things bikinis and booze, and then the ol pederasts that buy condos along the river can be sure of having entertainment all summer long. Mrs Breeze includes binoculars with every river-condo.


This T.Brown is-was a real asshole, it looked frightened, and many times called for back-up, but none ever came, a few times the local doggy prison truck drove by, so its clear that the PoundTruck is working with the cops, most likely they cruise and tell the cop where to go, I'm not sure right now that PoundTruck driving folk can write tickets, I know the city is talking about making it so that the folks that pick up trash can write tickets.

All the above was on my first pass of McKay, once I got past columbia across from the upper dirt lot where folks put in their boats, there's beer every where up there, I was some young girls that weren't 18, and they had a full bar laid out on the ground by their car while they were inflating their rafts. I never see cops up there, this is where they're supposed to make sure that kids aren't drinking on the river, this is where they're supposed to make sure that kids have life-preservers. This is where they put in.

It's a pretty twisted town that officer T.BROWN arsehole has to write $327 tickets to young familys, and there kids walking right by with beer in their hand that he doesn't see.

Makes me think that the cops in Bend are totally out of control, or someone has said "go where the money is", perhaps writing tickets to kids who drink on the river is to close to home, after all, we're all there for the bikini, word gets out that you'll get a ticket for drinking and not having a life-preserver and there goes the bikini's.

That said if they drive away all the children, and puppys, what is the point of having a park? Perhaps the point is just a place where the bikini girls have to portage.

I'm sure there is a real good explanation for this, I'm waiting.

I still say that BEND has their priority's screwed to hell, later this summer when another kid dies of drinking on the river without a life-prevserver, just remember this article, and remember that the puppy made the cop do it.

So please some of you republican law and order bastards, please explain this to me. A favorite rant here by the bend-blogger-brigade is enforce the law on the illegals, why do bends finest themselves selectively enforce the law?

Sorry for the duncan style dear-diary blog, but I just thought this was too strange to pass-up, bilbo in bend, your ace field reporter, by bike everywhere.

Lastly, in the new JuniperRidge budget, there is a request for an additional ten full time police, can you imagine how puppy's they can screw then? Its mind boggling.

It's a good racket, as the economy worsens more folks will take to simple things like hang at the river during the summer with the pets, and of course the cops will get to write lots of tickets.

In all the incidents I witnessed folks were only letting the fido and kid's play in the water, its difficult to let a dog play in water on leash. A lot of the raft folk have pets, its extremely dangerous to have a noose around a dogs neck in a boat, but NOTE that in the city of bend anytime a dog doesn't have a noose around its neck, its a DOG-AT-LARGE.

Anonymous said...

"On BendBB, some guy offered $325K for a place asking $350K, and they countered with full price...Lastly, I would read anything I saw on bendbb with a large grain of salt. It's largely kids screwing with your RE minds."

Just so you know, we made this offer and got denied. I think we made them mad and "insulted" them...hence the full price counteroffer.

So, not everyone on bendbb is playing games.

Anonymous said...

Just so you know, we made this offer and got denied. I think we made them mad and "insulted" them...hence the full price counteroffer.

So, not everyone on bendbb is playing games.


ok, lets call your bluff, what is the address so we can do a DIAL analysis, and get the tax assessor info, to find out if the house was over or under value. The reason the person didn't go down could have been ....

1.) Couldn't because they owed more
2.) Couldn't because the house was already on the market for a year, and they were already down X%.

At this point we know NOTHING,

If and when benbb wants some credibility, provide us with an address so we can determine if this transaction ever took place.

What is at stake here is the assumption that prices are going down, and bendbb says they're going up.

Normally as already has been discussed here, is if they respond to a low-ball by going higher you walk, that is the SMART thing to do, the fact that our buyer went with the high offer means that he/she loved the RE, which should NEVER happen, a smart buyer walks, and NEVER falls in love with RE,

Which in summary leads this doubting thomas to speculate that all is B.S.

To quote the man, a ficticious transaction.

Anonymous said...

Doubting Thomas,

My bad, I didn't explain clearly...they counteroffered full price and we walked.

They had lowered the property 2 weeks ago and then lowered again when they listed with a new realtor. In effect, they lowered $30K in 3 weeks.

House had been on market about 5 months but hadn't had an offer.

We offered $325K...house was purchased in '02 for $200K. Our price was $3 higher than the $/sq ft for the school area. (only 2 houses had sold in the development this year.)

From what I could tell on county site...they have only initial mortgage on this one and a new mortgage for their new house. Obviously having 2 mortgages is tough...so I am sure they want as much as possible.

Don't want to give out address...just in case we try again later after the summer plays out.

I am not a financial guru (obviously)...just trying to find a decent price.

For what it's worth...

Anonymous said...

Regarding this 'dog' thing, this was discussed in this group three months ago to exhaustion.

The story here was that people were dumping their dogs off at the pound. The impression was that the bend-bubble was making it hard to keep dogs, and that people were leaving Bend and dumping the dog.

Here is another take from a family I know. For twenty years they took the dog to the Deschutes for a swim in the summer, and whenever it was a nice day. This March they got a ticket for their dog being off-leash in the Deschutes River at Drake Park. They had the dog destroyed, as they could not pay the $300 fine. They went to court and the judge waived the fine upon showing proof that the dog had been destroyed.

When a dog is destroyed a record is made, perhaps this is why we saw an increase of people dumpy their dogs and destroying them a few months ago. Fear of large fine's for doing, that what people have always done in Bend with dogs, e.g. letting the dog swim.

Note this is all a typical elite red-neck issue, take away the things red-necks love, and they'll leave. Today Bend is know as a rich persons snob rec-area.

Anonymous said...


Don't want to give out address...just in case we try again later after the summer plays out.

I am not a financial guru (obviously)...just trying to find a decent price.


First we were told that a person had low-balled, and then the counter was higher, and the buyer accepted.

Now we learn there is NO deal, there never has been a deal, and if we all be quite for a few months perhaps there will be a deal.

All along most of us assumed this story was hokey-nokey, and now we know for sure. It's probably very true that a seller countered high on a low-ball, as they can do whatever they wish.

Let's go back to RE 101 here, make a low-ball, and if they accept jump, otherwise MOVE-ON, there are 3,000+ houses and more for sale in Bend, and its a generally accepted practice that you make ten low-ball offers, and one will accept.

By 3,000+ houses, I'm assuming that twice those on the market are actually for sale, if I wanted to buy right now, and I don't, what I would do is the backwards way, I would find houses in the area I like, I would use the DIAL system to find these houses where the people had paid less than $100k ten or more years ago, and I would offer them $200k, until I found someone who accepted whether or not the house was for sale.

Anonymous said...

I have a friend who volunteers at the humane society. I hear a lot of the dogs showing up there are of the pit-bull variety and have been possibly used as guard dogs for people growing/making drugs in houses.

There's been a lot of talk about houses being bought with 100% loans to be used as drug houses. I know that happens in CA, but does it really happen in Bend? I mean does anyone know of an actually house and not just a bunch of idle gossip?

Anonymous said...

>>For twenty years they took the dog to the Deschutes for a swim in the summer, and whenever it was a nice day.

Can a 20-year old dog even swim?

Anonymous said...

Can a 20-year cali even change their socks?

Can a 20-year cali work at long-board-louie?

Have you ever seen a 20-year old cali at super-burrito { I mean behind the count }.

This could be like the old monte-python, skit throw a person in the river, and if they sink they were a cali, if they swim they weren't.

Anonymous said...

There's been a lot of talk about houses being bought with 100% loans to be used as drug houses. I know that happens in CA, but does it really happen in Bend?

***

Never happened, meth cooks are smarter than this.

Only the 80% of folks that bought in Bend 2001->2006 were stupid enough to get 100% loans.

Anonymous said...

There's been a lot of talk about houses being bought with 100% loans to be used as drug houses

Ten years ago and more it was fairly common in Bend to have a rental house become a meth-lab. Then about ten years ago the State of Oregon started a land-lord education program that has been real good at eliminating the problem.

Today with 1,000's of empty houses in Bend, and folks desperate for $500/mo revenue, you may see a increase. Works like this a guy calls and says he just moved to down, and has to have a house, and pays cash for rent. Someone naive in the landlord business then has a good chance of being an owner of a toxic waste site, and note the insurance isn't covered. You are out the $400k you borrowed IO,HELOC,... on this property.

WRT meth-cooks buying a home, the whole deal is NO records, its best to rent on a handshake, and pay cash. NO proof, no records.

Buying a house for cooking meth is completely stupid, a 'smarter' thing to do would to take your dirty meth money, and 'launder' your cash in Bend RE, but keep the RE clean. By 'smart' I'm talking about cooks and dealers that do NOT partake in the product.

I think from my 30-40 years in RE business that this story of meth-cooks buying IO,NO-DOWN RE and turning it into meth-labs is an urban myth.

WRT to cali, who knows what goes on down there, anything is possible, but MOST probable is that the 'buyer' bought the house on contract for nothing-down, and forged his identity, this way there would be NO public-record, and in effect the buyer is still paying rent, and the owner has NO power of that of a land-lord. In this case it would make perfect sense to buy a house in Bend at an huge price, and pay nothing down, and IO payments which would be low on contract. Then the meth-cook has the house, and NO nosy land-lord. I think this method would work very well.

Regarding the normal purchase where there is a public record, and a NOTARY takes identification, that would be ONE completely stupid meth-cook. I the Oregonian portrays those folks as stupid, but remember they have to be twice as smart as the dumb-ass cops to stay in the game.