BB2's a pretty toxic place. I don't go there.

Funny thing happened on the way to April 2009... we became Fairly Valued.

Remember, back last August, when Brucey was still riding atop his Perpetual Filing Machine (Perpetual Flying Machine?), hbm had sworn off BB2 for the 122nd time, which we celebrated as it coincided with his age... and National City had stated that Bend was still tops in overvaluation.

We had $285K medians, which Nat City said was 46% too high.

So... that brings us to $195K medians... which... is... where.... we... are. Back to 2003 levels.

Yup folks, we are no longer exceptional. We are average. Well, sorta.

We are actually far above average in unemployment & the rate of housing price depreciation.

That's the unfortunate part. We're in a Bad Way. 17% unemployment doesn't just vanish. In fact, with Cessna & the Multiplier Effect, we're probably going to lose several thousand jobs from that source alone.

Bend is in Collapse Mode. The Virtuous Circle is now a Vicious Cycle. All will be undone, and then some.

People will soon start making arguments that prices in Bend have reached IRRATIONAL LEVELS. And they will be right, in one regard.

You will be able to buy cheaper than owning.

It really won't make ANY SENSE to rent. But prices will go below that parity. They will because there is no money here. There is unemployment, there is no money, and there are no jobs. And when that happens, price doesn't matter.

Bums can't buy houses.

I think there are some touting that now is an INCREDIBLE time to buy a home in Bend. This is just indicative of someone who has no idea about the repercussions of a Black Swan.

Black Swans don't make sense. Medians are headed towards the low $100's. Buying will be cheaper than renting soon. Believe it.

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Speaking of crazy old cooters, hbm found a good piece in Business Week about the implosion of Bend.

“It boggles my mind how we’re going to get out of this,” Erik Kancler, executive director of Central Oregon LandWatch, told The Bulletin.

Maybe the only way to get out of it is to follow the example of other Bendites, load up the U-Haul and get the hell out of Dodge.

Funny that hbm & I have what appears to be similar "agendas". Or at least similar conclusions about what people should do if they are down & out in Bend, OR.

We don't see eye-to-wandering-eye on much, but we certainly share the belief that Bend is a crumbling edifice of Greed & Corruption & Crushed Dreams.

And all we hear, is that our beloved City Leaders SAW IT COMING, all along.

Bull shit. None of these dumbfucks saw anything coming.

Go read the Bully archives. Not a single City or Business Leader was predicting ANYTHING except a BRIEF SLOWDOWN, and then off to the races, harder, faster, and HIGHER than ever before.

Everyone "running" Bend wanted you to buy, buy, BUY.

And they believed it. Sawyer & hundreds like her (and him) bought after the top, when we were down just 10%... not the near 50% we are down now.

And still they tell you to buy. Why? It's actually starting to be a "Good Deal".

OK, I'll go along with that. IF, you can pull of positive cash flow from Day 1, and IF you have absolutely NO PLANS of ever selling. THEN, it can work.

But why? It'll work FAR BETTER in 1 year. And FAR, FAR better in 2.

In a couple of years, when all have lost hope, Bend will be a nice little spot for making money. NOT the CAP APP days of yore. But just positive cash flow each month. Regular place, with an OK RE market.

It's getting there, but it's not there yet. We have $195K medians, the rest of the country is $165K, or so. We are STILL too high, and will ultimately go 20-30% below national medians.

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This crazy fucking blog, attracts your standard garden variety lunatic. And that repels quite a few. Can't stand the heat, I suppose. Saw this over at BendBB:

by popgoesbend on Thu Apr 09, 2009 9:10 am

Marge sometimes posts that info over at BB2...

by Jack_Elliott on Thu Apr 09, 2009 1:35 pm

BB2's a pretty toxic place. I don't go there.

The guy wants info on RE, someone suggests coming here... but WE'RE TOO TOXIC. AHHH! Stay away! You'll catch BB2 Swine Flu AIDS!

Oh geez. I don't think Jack Elliott has heard about the New, Kinder, Gentler BB2, with 1/100th the FUCK YOU IN YOUR SMELLY CUNT factor, now that Buster has curled up in LaPine, and is giving hand-jobs to goats.

Sorry, but I read this sort of thing and realize that this Jack Elliott guy is like Oran Teater in hbm's piece: They will fucking deluded themselves into things at all costs that serve their own purposes.

This place is "toxic"? Really? WTF does that mean? And it's actually true for many on BendBB, they just won't come here. Too rough-N-tumble, too Wild West.

I just think that's sorta funny. If I want info, I will go anywhere on the web to get it. I don't think anywhere is "TOXIC". That's just weird. "TOXIC" is harvesting IP's, and that is done on BendBB, not here. "TOXIC" is moderating & deleting comments... again, not done here. "TOXIC" is having some sort of Trusted Registration process, when no such thing is possible, which is done... well, you get the point.

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Finally, I figure I will throw hbm, Dunc, and other lib's a bone. I had a chance to watch CNBC over the past week... I do not have cable here at my house.

Ummmmm... when did they become an almost Zombie Force For Repugs?

I last saw that station 10 years ago, and they were relatively neutral. What happened?

They had the odd position of blaming the economic problems on Barack, but somehow saying the huge stock market rally was happening despite all the awful things he was doing.

When did this happen? I see OPB leaning towards the dreadlocks & granola crowd, but this is ridiculous. It was so BLATANT.

I did not watch Fox News, so hold all cat calls of YOU SHOULD WATCH FOX NEWS!

Anyway, I guess I am back to the obvious slanted view of KTVZ, but man.... they don't hold a candle to CNBC. that was just ridiculous.

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Finally, just a note on Social Costs.

Social Costs are borne by all people, when a small number choose to (usually unilaterally) impose them on everyone else.

I usually illustrate this with littering. I HATE littering. It's SO EASY to avoid, and is just a direct transfer of costs onto everyone. I HATE IT.

But that seems what this country is becoming. SOCIALISM. The costs of a few are imposed on the masses. Very few benefit, but the costs they impose are HUGE.

That's what we are. It is everywhere. We are a nation of Narcissitic Paris Hiltons. Every little thing MUST BE indulged NOW. If we can make $1 while costing society $20, so be it.

I know everyone is reviling the Socialist Movement of Barack, but to me it is less about the $1 being given to the Free Wheelers. It is about the $20 that I, my kids, and my kids kids will have to bear.

Capitalism may not be perfect, but Socialism is a disaster. It's nothing but the masses trying to impose costs on everyone else. In a social context, it's rampant littering with no garbage pickup.

That is where we are headed.