Sunday, May 24, 2009

All Signs Point To Deteriorating Bend Economy

I suppose the Big News of the week is that Oregon Unemployment seemed to "stablize" at 12.0% (adjusted). The unadjusted figure fell to 12.1% from 12.7%, but remember: the "adjusted" figure is the new Quoted Standard.

In 2008, Bend unemployment went from 7.8% in March to 6.6% in April (down 1.2%), while the adjusted stayed at 6.7% for both months.

So we can look forward to a rising "adjusted" unemployment rate even if our "real" rate falls as much as 1.1%.

Only 1 thing is for certain: Local Bend media, while not even acknowledging "unadjusted" unemployment will start touting the FALLING UNEMPLOYMENT rates contain therein, if they do indeed happen.

Watch for it this week: The Last Leading Indicator was MONTHS OF INVENTORY, and it did a pretty damn good job.

Months Inventory stands at 11.7 months for Bend residential.

Bend w/ Acreage stands at just over 5 years inventory.

Who is the LEADER (by LEADER, I mean LOSER)?

Sisters, my favorite PARIAH, has 101 residential homes for sale, and just a single sale in April, for a (fairly transient) pretty terrible 8.4 year supply of homes.

If you think that single sale is a Big Anomaly, Sisters also had a single sale in March as well.

Sisters w/ Acreage has had either zero or 1 sale in each of the first 4 months of this year. Months (Years?) Inventory has ranged from 6 years or so on the low side, to infinity on the high end.

Redmond has a 14.5 month supply of homes, and over 2 1/2 years of acreage properties.

LaPine has 10 months of homes, and just over 32 months of acreage properties.

Crook County has just under 2 years of home supply, and a fairly brutal 14 year supply of acreage property... that's a single sale out of 168 available properties.

Madras has about a year and a half of homes, and 2 years of farms for sale.

So the Leading Indicator of Economic Health for the region is still Very Poor. Damn Poor.

That tells me that the Best Concurrent Indicator, Unemployment, is not going to jump up soon.

At least I don't think.

Because I have a sneaking suspicion that all the Job Seekers are starting to see the Wizard behind The Curtain isn't all he's cracked up to be (Hollern, Smith, Costa). And a lot of people make their forward-looking plans at this time of the year (Brucey).

Many will say "No".

I am seeing a HUGE number of For rent signs sprouting up. I've been here 8 years, and haven't seen this many. Usually they go up, and are down in a week... not so this year.

People are leaving Bend in DROVES and I don't give a shit what anyone else is saying.

I'm SEEING IT.

So here's the Low Down: We may have reached the seasonal low in real unemployment for the season (I thought this last month & was proved wrong), but Inventory is still HUGE. Dark matter is suddenly seeing the light of day. Gray matter is coming out of the woodwork.

But there is no money here to buy it. There's no money because there are no jobs. There are no jobs because we squandered the largest lottery payout this place has ever seen, by distributing the money back to developers via reduced and now eliminated SDC charges, and other perks such as free land distributions (Putnam Pointe).

We might start to reach the Self Healing Point: People leaving having had their Bend Dream Crushed via 401K 100% losses on amenity business black hole, and so the unemployment rate starts to ease because there are fewer job seekers.

Maybe?


I hate to keep saying I Told You So (that's a lie), but...

San Fran leads the pack with the largest absolute dollar losses in housing prices, with a crushing loss of $444,800.

It's also 3rd on the depreciation list of Big Cities (over 1 mill population), with a nut-crushing loss of 52.5%

And that's the loss on the MEDIAN home, not the average. The average is probably a lot higher.

I think SanFran is much like Bend, and still has yet to deal with the real repercussions of losing that much net worth.

By my calculations, Bend has lost $13 billion in net worth, from a peak of $24 billion. And the population has actually gone up over this time. So we've individually gotten a lot poorer.

But SanFran has lost several HUNDRED BILLION in net worth.

SanFran won't change as much as Cent OR (we will have it MUCH WORSE), but it will suffer immensely, and the fundamental character of the place will transform over the next 10-20 years.

All these Cut In Half markets, like Bend, SanFran, San Bernnie, Phoenix, Vagas, LA... will all take 15-20 years to recoup the bubble losses.

I don't know about you, but in 20 years I will be an old motherfucker.

My kids will be grown & married. And probably have kids.

Folks, 20 years is a Long Ass Time.

These places won't recover in any relevant time period.

Well, I actually have to get to work, so I'll leave it at that...
hbm, you wanna float the river, big boy?
BendBubble2 makes me wanna take off my shirt!

186 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And Bad News Brucey... SLC still remains pretty overvalued among large metro areas...

Housing Downturn Update: We May Have Reached Bottom, But Not Everywhere

Median House Price Reduction Required to Reach Historic Price/Income Ratio (Median Multiple)

1) New York, NY-NJ-PA $122,200
2) Portland, OR-WA $94,700
3) Seattle, WA $94,400
4) Baltimore, MD $74,700
5) Salt Lake City, UT $73,800

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I found the Stress Test map referenced in hbm's recent post pretty informative:

Stress Test Indicator

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Also interesting was the preconceived bias regarding the Midwest:

Looking at the overall map, one striking thing is how pale (low-stress) the central portion of the country is and how dark (high-stress) the West Coast is. In general, the areas that saw the biggest boom are the ones that got hammered hardest by the bust.

A quick eyeball scan seems to show that Nebraska is the least-stressed state in the country; we couldn’t find a single county there with a stress index in double digits. So if you’re thinking about loading up the U-Haul and heading for greener pastures, that’s one possibility to consider.


Can't eat the scenery, dude.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Oh right, HERE'S the "bias":

The downside, of course, is that you’d be in Nebraska.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I might have to have Summer Post Hours or something... I'm working so much that when I DO have time off, they might have to be shorter... with more copy/paste...

What with the 30 days of sunshine every year... gotta make the most of it...

hbm said...

I spent a month driving through Nebraska one day.

It is one vast expanse of absolutely NOTHIN.'

Although I guess if I had to choose between living there and starving here (literally) I'd live there. Fortunately I don't have to make that choice.

Anonymous said...

The huge drop in San Francisco median price is due to the drop in the East Bay suburbs of Brentwood,
Antioch,Discovery bay. New subdivisions out there were selling for $600-$700,000. three years ago. Prices have dropped there by 50-60 percent, so the medians are skewed.
San Francisco has a lot of wealthy families (Getty, Daniel Steele,Feinstein) and a lot of wealthy actors (Robin Willians, Danny Glover) as well as foreign wealth who buy second homes there. Prices in the better areas of SF have not dropped at all.
Was back in Michigan recently, and the attitude reminded me of here in Bend-"I ain't leaving, no matter what. I was born and will die within a 25 miles radius."
If you have children, please do them a favor, and move. Someplace where there is a future. Where their life can be better than yours.
If you are an old fart, and want to die here in poverty, so be it.
Just don't condemn your kids to the same fate.

Anonymous said...

HOMER-KUNT,

I have got some renters moving out on Jun 15, 2009 homer, so I'll be running the craigs and hanging the signs, ... I'll give a full report.

But remember I can afford to go below $500/mo, need be, as I own outright.

Right now these rentals are fetching $1200/mo, I'm going to do as I always do look at craigs, and figure sq-ft & location, and then subtract 10% for the ASK, and if they want to pay less I'll agree, I only care about long-term renters, I don't fuck with folks who don't have a 2+ yr history.

Best luck with nurses and medical folk lately, ... should be interesting on screening to see who who apply's for rental has a strong job.

I don't care nor give a fuck about what other rental are doing just mine, and right now I'm 100%, but in Jun 15, 2009 a few open.

FYI and this might IMPRESS you KUNT, but both these rentals are NOT a bail, in both these cases its youngin's with GOOD cali tele-commute jobs that are buying their own HOME, they're now buying the BULLET and saying "Hey, I couldn't afford 4+ yrs ago, and NOW I can buy anything in Bend", ...

Let's pencil, they were paying me $1200/mo, which buys you at %5 INT a $240k loan, assuming 20% down, then that means about $290k, which you can now make a serious offer and BUY anywhere in FUCKING Bend.

So as to the issue from my point of view, my renters aren't bailing, and only time will tell if the rental market is bad. My negative will be that I don't see any long term renters with 2+ yr Bend employment history, I hate to rent to people without 5+ yrs rental history in the area, but past bad markets show, that my nice homes in good areas always rent, and most folks hate renting from these fucking losers in unwater MTG's and love renting from me where they do nothing, I even do the lawn, and take 100% care of ALL.

p.s. FYI both the tele-commuters are involved in internet security, the racket is still HOT and secure.

bye,

Anonymous said...

Is anyone out there capable of writing a coherent thought without using 4 letter words??

Anonymous said...

As a parent, if you being a child into the world, you have an obligation to do the best you can for them. If you asked most parents what they want for their child, they would say"I want their life to be better than mine".
If you choose to stay here, you are not making that possible.

Anonymous said...

I would rather eat dirt than leave Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

San Fran is doomed:


Recession suddenly humbles high-tech sector
Food pantries in ritzy communities: Recession's sudden arrival humbles the high-tech sector

LOS GATOS, Calif. (AP) -- The $1.6 million red Bugatti crouches in the showroom, flanked by Lamborghinis, Bentleys and a Rolls-Royce all polished to a shimmer. The nearby potted plants, however, are dusty and wilting. With super-luxury car sales here just half of what they used to be, they had to cut something.

"We wash our own windows now, take care of the plants ourselves," says Ryan Dohogne, general manager of Silicon Valley Auto Group. Although they haven't laid anyone off, yet, Dohogne said they're saving everywhere they can.

Five miles away, former indoor plant specialist Michael A. Jones is having what he calls "a humbling experience" at a nonprofit food pantry, choosing dented cans of corn and tuna, a crunched box of Rice Krispies and some soon-to-expire milk to supplement his food stamps.

Jones used to gross $12,000 a month as an indoor horticulturist for high tech companies, restaurants and car dealerships, although not Silicon Valley Auto Group. Then "everyone cut back all at once and we had to shut down," he said. "It happened fast."

Very fast. In fact, nowhere in the country has the bust arrived more abruptly.

The Associated Press Economic Stress Index, a month-by-month analysis of foreclosure, bankruptcy and unemployment rates in more than 3,000 U.S. counties, shows that last year, as the national economy tanked, high tech economic centers from California's Silicon Valley to North Carolina's Research Triangle were apparently "recession-proof" with increasing jobs and stable housing prices.

Last fall, everything changed. When previously invested funds petered out, there was no new capital. Bankruptcies, foreclosures and unemployment in high tech regions spiked, and are now at some of the highest levels in the country.

For example:

-- Santa Clara County, home to Silicon Valley, saw bankruptcies soar 59 percent in the past 12 months, and projections are that they're still climbing;


... cont

4,096 character limit? FUCK YOU GOOGLE!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Is anyone else seeing a STUPID 4,096 character limit on comments?

What a RIP! Geez... sell GOOG...

Anonymous said...

If all these unintelligant people from California had not come here, Bend would be absoloutely perfect.!

Anonymous said...

"Bend will have it MUCH worse the San Francisco"...I don't think so......Arnie sez he's going to terminate welfare and release 44000 prisoners from the Cal prisons...Both of those groups of folks tend to have very limited skill sets; Shoplifting, burglary, robbery, car jacking, murder & rape etc....Can you say Mad Max?......He's also going to dramatically reduce enrollments in the world's largest college system.....Meanwhile the illegals roll in, albet at a reduced rate, fleeing Mexico's collapse & civil war...Better genteel poverty in Bend where you can suppliment your diet hunting & fishing and use your hunting rifle to shoot that meth head when he comes thru your window at 2AM, then unarmed victimhood in California...Oh,, they just had a teachers demonstration cum riot in LA where 40 teachers were arrested......Layoffs coming in education too.....Want your kids in a gang infested, overcrowded school??......SF's in a downward spiral with no bottom in sight....

Anonymous said...

Is anyone else seeing a STUPID 4,096 character limit on comments?
Yeah, I noticed that last week ... I think they got tired of people posting Shakespeare plays on BB2.

Their new policy allows only a Shakespeare sonnet.

Anonymous said...

Is anyone out there capable of writing a coherent thought without using 4 letter words??
You're a funny guy -- you mean you want me to write "come" as "cum" and not allow me to use words like:

with
tend
very
flee

Marge said...

Might be seeing the "Dead cat Bounce" in the median price for Bend SFR. May so far is $212k med.
There may be enough stupid, break through buyers, that will sell a few more higher end homes this summer. We may hang at $230ish for the summer, til more business's close and people actually read the BUll article today. Can't believe they actually said, Bend drank Koolaid, and said we are screwed, as well as we don't recover as soon as the rest of the world. IMAGINE THAT SHIT!
I think the W recession is in for Bend for sure. Then the L.

Anonymous said...

Too many people writing here seem to be uneducated, pickup driving, rednecks. Anyone who has a cogent thought is the exception.

Anonymous said...

Can someone post the dead-cat BULL story?

Yes the new 4k limit sucks, homer do cum about it, and pls whoever this new net nanny that doesn't like fuck, cum, piss, or snot, please BB2 is not for U.

Anonymous said...

I hadn't read dunc column, for a month or more, caught up just now, ... insipid.

They don't call him Ned Flanders for nuttin.

Hey Marge, I just got back from Newport ( Oregon, Beach dat is ) today, came straight to Newport from BKK, today came to Bend, holy shit everything on Galveston and Newport gone, and DeLussa on Galveston, .. GONE the only fucking place left is long-board.

Today I go crawl downtown on me bike and take inventory @deschutes, hang at D&D for awhile and talk with old-timer, and see if I can find any plywood on windows downtown, me thinks my best years of Bend 1983, be around da corner.

Fuck, piss, shit, twat, ... & Bend.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who has a cogent thought is the exception.


*

I guess its time to go back and write about the sex lives of Malay widows under 30, .... Cogent you want, that you get.

I do want to know, so COGENT can tell me, why in the fuck a FARANG bitch at best in her best year, can hardly fuck three times a day, and these malay babes, can fuck 12+ hrs day, with 20min breaks, and they don't want foreplay, ...?? Come on cogent explain this shit.

They get a dozen plus orgasms a day, and where a grin all day and want more, ... how come farang bitch ain't like that?

They initiate all, about every hour they're trying fondling your balls trying to get you to go to the river where they can rock your lap, or some out of site place, ...

How come farang bitch not so playful? How come cogent??

Duncan McGeary said...

Gee, thanks.

In my defense, there hasn't been much to work with.

Anonymous said...

Their new policy allows only a Shakespeare sonnet.

*

Is this really policy, or once again like 'no-follow' homers inability to remove defaults that are un-needed?

Anonymous said...

Sorry dunc, I didn't mean what I wrote, hell why would I have invested the time to catch up?

I do want someone to post this BULL story, I don't visit BULL site, nor will I touch the VILE BULL toilet tissue, so please will some KUNT or PUSSY post the BULL that marge mentions, and you too mention today, pleeeeeeeeeze??

Anonymous said...

Too many people writing here seem to be uneducated, pickup driving, rednecks. Anyone who has a cogent thought is the exception.

*

That is the refined essential truth, so the real question is why is Bend's finest citizens hanging out at the rock pissing urinal of Bend?

Hanging out at a truck-stop, only to be bitching about truckers?? That is just fucking weird, I'm sure BP already has a new DKOS site up and running in SLC with your name on it.

Anonymous said...

In my defense, there hasn't been much to work with.

*

Yet, you casually mention todays BULL on Bend, and then don't even dive into your point of view?

Normally you feed on BULL, your the main BULL-FODDER man of Bend.

Now that the BULL is going TRUTH according to marge, you have nothing to say??

Hell be contrarian, ... so much doom and gloom, my bike&hike&ski friends all have smiles, their still retired and living fine in Bend, its seems to be only you working stiffs not enjoying the depression.

Anonymous said...

I would rather eat dirt than leave Bend.

*

Well if you go afford to drive here and live in your car, you would be eating dirt, so stay where you are and enjoy what your currently digesting.

Bewert said...

Re: SL remains overpriced

####

Yep, they drank the koolaid here, too. They seem to be getting more desparate, though: http://www.sltrib.com/ci_12431340

"Builders are offering an array of incentives designed to lure potential buyers -- especially those with the means to buy but who aren't because they are spooked about the nation's economic crisis and Utah's cooling economy.

"Builders are doing anything they can to generate interest, and some of what they are offering is actually pretty neat," said Ryan Kirkham, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors."

What I am really sick of are McMansions. It seems like every home built here in the last ten years is in excess of 3000 sq. ft.

Note also that Bend MSA UE numbers are scheduled to come out Tuesday AM. They should be interesting. http://www.oregon.gov/cgi-bin/ORDynoGen_v3.cgi?pt=ne&ag=2231&pa=/EMPLOY/COMM

St Paddy said...

Just finished my third 20+ mile mountain bike ride in as many days. Did a little business today and now sipping an Inversion getting ready for tonights festivities. If this is depression I'm lovin it, there's still food at the store(that I can afford) and fuel at the station(not that we use much here).

Hey Doh,I figured out where they get the 300+ days of sunshine. It's days like today that count for at least seven sunnies.

We're heading downtown to do the bicycle pub crawl. Life is good with no overhead in Bend.

Saw a couple people camped at the base of lower whoops tonight, first class accomodations for the low price of zero. High end is dead but quality of life is high.

Flame on boys.

Anonymous said...

"They initiate all, about every hour they're fondling...."

Ummm, if you really expect it to be like that all the time, then you're about as naive as I was when I was 24 years old.

That I really want to discuss your love life -- but you might consider some of the incentives involved.

Anonymous said...

Please this is BEND, there are NO incentives?

Tell me about the gold digging bitches of Bend, and they paying coke-whores ( gold diggers ) or Meth-Ho's ( white trash ), ... the last thing you see is pussy. Coke-Ho's and Meth-Ho's are dead fucks. Period.

Show me a Bend HO putting out a dozen times a day cuz she likes to fuck?

The issue has already been tread. The issue is that the jungle bunny's work about 1-2 hours a day, and sleep about 10+ hours a day, and thus its the relaxed life that creates the sexual appetite. These girls don't fuck for money or power, they fuck because they like making love, and a lot. Toss in a diet of fresh fruit, fish, and veges, and ... a fat free diet, its simply inconceivable to lard-ass USA cubical man that women can be lean and love to fuck, and be beautiful.

The stress of the hamster Bend cage woman/man, leads to a bad joke of a sex life.

That's why you pick them carefully, but where I go the woman more pick the men, its easy to lay a woman the first time, but if you don't perform all night on the first night, there will be no second night.

I know its inconceivable to Bend cubical man that there be such a beast was women who love to fuck, but they really do exist, just not in BEND.

But don't worry, cuz if you don't know the language, and don't take time to learn the culture, your money ain't worth shit, its not about the money, its about whether you can bring the girls a dozen orgasms a day, and fuck them all night, every night. Money is quite worthless in a place where money can buy you nothing, where there are no stores.

Anonymous said...

OK, homer ho kunt,

Here's my report after running around Bend tonight,

Mostly newbies I met, and all with no jobs, and mostly government jobs.

All big smiles, a recurring theme I heard was ... "I'm living in a $800k house on the westside for $500/mo".

Sorry, to piss on your sky is following HOMER, but I think its time to play contrarian on Bend.

The word is going to get out, that you can rent a mansion in Bend for $500/mo, and we're going to fill up with tele-commuters, ... that's my humble opinion, after many beers and talking shit all night.

Anonymous said...

Ummm, if you really expect it to be like that all the time, then you're about as naive as I was when I was 24 years old.

*

Well let's see, I'm 65, and I have fucked a dozen or more of these beauty's down here over the last few years long time, and everyone of them loved me 24/7, like NO fucking WHITE-BITCH I have ever been with in my life, from 14 to 65.

But that is a GOOD point about 'expecting' it to be the same all the time, that's why god made so many islands, and that's why its a good idea be up-front.

In these cultures, you make it very clear up front, that you expect to have sex a dozen times a day, and you tell the girl thus, and from the beginning of the relationship, and most just nod their head with "of course", personally I think its more the men that get bored than the woman, these woman are wired to please their man, I know that is an inconceivable thought to those in Bend that woman exist that only want to please men, but they do exist.

Lastly, a note to sleep on is these areas lead the world in castration, on the one hand they aim to please, on the other hand, they know how to sever a penis.

It's all about honest, and respecting a culture, and being part of that culture.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Well Buster, it does sound fantastic.

Forced to fuck hot chicks to death, or have your balls lopped off.

The Cruel Irony Machine lives on...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sorry, to piss on your sky is following HOMER, but I think its time to play contrarian on Bend.

I am. The prevailing thinking (AS USUAL) is that IT CAN'T GET WORSE THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW.

It will.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here... here's some PREVAILING WISDOM:

Mill town Gilchrist pines for resort
Posted by Eric Mortenson, The Oregonian May 24, 2009 21:50PM

GILCHRIST -- This was the last company town in Oregon, a place where the mill employed the men and women, helped build a school for their children and decided what color their homes should be: dark brown. Until 1991, it was possible to charge gas, groceries and rent against your paycheck.

But those days are gone. The mill was sold to one company and its timber acreage to another. Many of the company houses got new metal roofs, colorful vinyl siding and were sold to out-of-towners who wanted vacation cottages, not a community.

The recession has made this a lonely stretch of U.S. 97, 45 miles south of Bend and even farther from central Oregon's affluent glitz. The mill jobs may be gone for good. School enrollment is half what it was.

As market owner Michael Manis gazes out on the highway, he indicates the lengthening intervals between passing cars with the spread of his long arms. "There's a gap, a time gap," he says.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bastards!
Blogger Limits: Comment LengthRecently, we see perplexed queries from bloggers

I published a comment of over 8000 chars a few days ago, but now I get this message:

Must be at most 4,096 characters.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WTF? This new character limit on comments combined with their stupid HTML-formatting craziness is starting to make Blogger less attractive.

Anonymous said...

We are in a world wide recession.
It is naive to think that Bend will somehow be bypassed.
Watch local retail stores/restaurants. They are the canary in the coal mine.
When more of them close, than are opening up, you know the economy is sliding down hill.

PopGoesBend said...

Sorry, to piss on your sky is following HOMER, but I think its time to play contrarian on Bend.

I am. The prevailing thinking (AS USUAL) is that IT CAN'T GET WORSE THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW.
Agreed. Most people I talk to think it's a great time to buy a house in Bend, and their reasoning is only "It's way cheap." Anyone paying attention knows it's only way cheap compared to what it was, not what it will be. Most people that buy a house right now are going to be underwater by next spring. Does it matter if you can buy a house now that is the same as your rent if you can buy a nicer house for less than your rent next year?

Anonymous said...

It can and will get worse....eternal optimism is not your friend right now.

I hear a lot of people talking about things turning around by the end of the year. I just don't see it happening here or anywhere else.

We are getting closer to the bottom but we still have a ways to go.

Anonymous said...

>> I just don't see it happening here or anywhere else.

It won't happen here. Here we're going to go through immense pain.

But it will happen elsewhere. I think in some parts of the country (reasonably priced, with jobs), the bottom is in.

Desert resort town with bad job scene? Look out below.

Anonymous said...

Desert resort town with bad job scene? Look out below.that's what this place has always been and nothing more. For me, it works because I don't expect to get rich here...hell, I rode my bike here from Mt. Hood 18 years ago with nothing but a backpack full of clothes. I just want to stay the hell away from the city, ski, drive an old subaru, and be happy. If you require more than that to make you happy, you should probably start packing.

Anonymous said...

for you "bottom callers", suggest you read:
www.doctorhousingbubble.com

We are a LONG way from this being the bottom-especially here, with such a high percentage of gov't. workers. That shoe hasn't dropped yet- but with huge state deficits, the layoffs will come.

Anonymous said...

People have been calling the bottom for three years and they'll be calling it for three more. Nothing new about people calling the bottom over and over in bend.

Only problem with Bend is that we had half the city pretending it was something it's not. You can't make a city work by pretending. You have to actually invest in infrastructure if you want to build it. You have to be smart, not just promotional.

Anonymous said...

About 40% of ALL jobs in the this county are government jobs-
State, ODOT, local cities, county,police, teachers.
When they start getting laid off by the thousands, things will get REALLY bad here.

Anonymous said...

If there's even a whiff of house prices ascending in Bend, we're going to see inventory double as shadow inventory leaps into the MLS.

Anonymous said...

About 40% of ALL jobs in the this county are government jobs-
State, ODOT, local cities, county,police, teachers.
When they start getting laid off by the thousands, things will get REALLY bad here.

*

Welcome to the great depression boyz, in the 1930's, those were the days that a government job meant low pay, but meat on the table, ...

Don't underestimate the ability of government to create jobs and print money.

Like Homer has said many times here for three years, hyper-inflation is coming.

I don't see an end to government jobs, I see more&more, ... its all they ( political controllers ) know, is to print paper money and create more government ( police ) jobs.

Anonymous said...

You have to be smart, not just promotional.

*

EXCUSE ME BITCH, ..

BUT HOLLERN even called the post 1998 project of BEND "SMART GROWTH", ...

NWXC was 'smart growth', pr&marketing was icing, ..

The PUGS built Bend were the smartest ones around, ...

Now you have the GUL to tell me that 'smart' was not included in past promotion and creation of the new post 1992 BEND-ORYGUN??

Anonymous said...

I rode my bike here from Mt. Hood 18 years ago with nothing but a backpack full of clothes.

*

Praise the lord, I came here to ORYGUN in 1964 with a pickup, and a home-built shell, that had all I owned, and I setup base-camp.

Never spent much time here, but good place to keep the toys stored.

Never even tried to make money here, and NEVER tried to get pussy here.

Just a desert shit-hole, that had easy access to ski, climbing, and hiking, and biking year-round. Nothing more.

NOTHING then, and nothing else now.

Anonymous said...

That "smart" was just smart promotion. Not smart durable city-building.

Anonymous said...

“We’re about to have a big problem,” one real estate expert told the New York Times. “Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.”

Anonymous said...

That shoe hasn't dropped yet- but with huge state deficits, the layoffs will come.

*

Orygun doesn't have the debt of CALI, I think SALEM will keep its jobs afloat for a long fucking time, and you got lottery and many other, ...

Like a very happy camper told me last night @deschutes, parks of orygun is funded by lotto, and lotto is UP, and his job is secure, and he loves his 6k sq-ft westside home for $500/mo, ... life is good.

Don't underestimate the staying power of government.

Anonymous said...

That "smart" was just smart promotion. Not smart durable city-building.

*

Hollern hired the smartest and best people he could find to run and build the new Bend post 1998,

Only in hind-sight can you call it 'dumb', and the great-depression-2 is effecting everywhere, had the easy-money not ended, then today the folks that built humpty-dumpty-bend, would be called 'genius' by the likes of you.

Anonymous said...

I hear a lot of people talking about things turning around by the end of the year. I just don't see it happening here or anywhere else.

*

That's really funny, cuz I talk to a lot of people, and nobody I talk to says that shit.

There are two people.

1) JOB - The world is fucked.

2.) Secure - The world is great.

If you have to have a job to live, then FEAR is pervasive, but there is NO light in the tunnel.

If you don't have to work, and have cash put away, and cut back your expense long ago, ala DUNC, ... then your ok to ride the long dark storm.

But NO fucking person I have talked to anywhere has suggested anything less than 2012.

Sure TV, and some fucking idiot troll for the BULL might be quoted as saying the worst is NOW, but that PURE BULL talk, ...

Anonymous said...

Does it matter if you can buy a house now that is the same as your rent if you can buy a nicer house for less than your rent next year?

*

I can ONLY speak of myself as a landlord, life moves on in BOTH my 6/15 move-outs these are young couples that want their own home, in love and want kids, ... first time buyer right now they get $8k government credit, great fucking time to buy.

YOU old miserable fucking cunts forget that 25 yr-old youth have dreams and don't give a fuck about saving $10k they want it NOW, ... sure I would rather have them stay in my rental, but I respect KARMA, and respect love, and youth,

All the DUMB fucking talk here ain't worth shit, for every HOMER renter loser on BB2 there are ten young couples in BEND that would DIE to own a home in BEND at todays prices.

FACT.

Right Now you can BUY near newport, westside for under $200k, and that is -60% or better than 3 yrs ago.

To wait a year or two for another 10%, may sound great to a 50 yr old renter-loser, but a 25 yr old doesn't think that way.

You know what? The kids will buy the house on 15 yr fixed, and be paid by 40, and done, while you losers of BB2 will be 65 and still renting.

FACT.

Anonymous said...

>>had the easy-money not ended

It's dopey to think easy-money can go on forever.

Anonymous said...

>>All the DUMB fucking talk here ain't worth shit, for every HOMER renter loser on BB2 there are ten young couples in BEND that would DIE to own a home in BEND at todays prices.

Then all the inventory will surely be snapped up within weeks.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, to piss on your sky is following HOMER, but I think its time to play contrarian on Bend.

I am. The prevailing thinking (AS USUAL) is that IT CAN'T GET WORSE THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW.

It will.

*

It depends homer, sure the MACHINE (BULL) says it can't be worse, but BULL talk ain't worth a bucket of warm-spit.

What matters is what is, and today, for those that have money, and down-payment, and a good 'government-job',... life is good, ..

I think we're seeing a major socialist inflection, where the government folks finally take over all, ...

The BULL really represents THATCHERISM in my mind, ... or BUSH/RAYGUN and they try ... then you got the new DKOS pussy think creating jobs, and ala OR-BOMB-EO giving away money.

Where is truth? Like I have said since day one here, its the blind men and elephant, all depends where your at, and what you got.

To homer life sucks, ... To a guy with a sweet Bend federal government job, Bend Rocks!

To a person who owns a restaurant or a realtor, who drank the kool-aid life sucks, ... in Bend.

The irony will NOT end, nobody is right.

There is NO such thing as Bend, just a collection of different groups or players, some living well, and other miserable.

New fact this AM at long-board for burrito, not seen the girl, asked where she came from, mentioned jobs, she told me that her long-board job was the only job she could find in Bend after two months of looking, ... now that person obviously is YOUR Bend.

My Bend is a life of leisure, of hiking and biking.

So much of visible BEND is selling worthless fucking SHIT, merchandising CRAP on I97, and old-mill, and the dead-malls, ... that BEND sucks, and is dead.

But like young people will continue to buy homes, people will continue to walk in drake-park, and people will continue to fuck and drink beer.

Anonymous said...

>>All the DUMB fucking talk here ain't worth shit, for every HOMER renter loser on BB2 there are ten young couples in BEND that would DIE to own a home in BEND at todays prices.

Then all the inventory will surely be snapped up within weeks.

*

No, we know there is 30 yrs of inventory, when you consider dark-matter at todays sales volume.

Like I have said since day-one here, 90% of the houses built here post 1998, are rat-holes, and will be destroyed.

It's not fair to change the subject and talk inventory, I don't consider the homes in Siberia ever selling, and I define Siberia as over 1 mi radius of deschutes brew pub.

Anonymous said...

It's dopey to think easy-money can go on forever.

*

Well then BEND is dopey, cuz virtually every drunk I know at D&D bought a flipper in 2004, and knew in his heart that cali's would come forever and pay $50k premium for his flipper the next day,

Even in 2006 the people at NWXC sales office told me that Bend had been 25% appreciation annually forever, always had, always will, .. Bend is exceptional.

Will the last KUNT to leave BB2 turn off the lights?

Anonymous said...

Most people that buy a house right now are going to be underwater by next spring. Does it matter if you can buy a house now that is the same as your rent if you can buy a nicer house for less than your rent next year?

*

It's all on your viewpoint, I have all intention of dying in BEND, and thus I don't give a rat's ass about loss, cuz I know by 2018, it will be recovered to 2004, at least, this I know, maybe 2024 it will even be back to 2006, but what I care?

But for renter losers, who like BP, live paycheck to paycheck, they don't know where the fuck they'll be in 2018, ...

So they fret with indecision, ...

Deja-Vu,

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I also like Karma... speaking of which, I saw one of the Eco-Lux-Modern Shitholes next to Newport Mkt up for rent... that is fucking CLASSIC!

From $800K to SHITHOLE RENTAL in just 18 months.

This is Bend.

Anonymous said...

The BULL really represents THATCHERISM in my mind,

*

I can't stress this thought enough, when you beat the dead-horse of bend exceptionalism, your really talking of bush/raygun,

PUGS built the new BEND, pugs like HOLLERN, & money from Bledsoe, ...

The ideology is fucked, its a loss, but they're in denial trying to rebound, suggesting that this year may turn around that they might win this game, ...

They're god damn fucking losers, and they're out, the game is over for a generation or more.

The majority of BEND voted for PALIN, FACT, the MAJORITY of Deschtues CO voted for PALIN.

The majority of BEND at this late hour still clings to Thatcherism in Bend.

Bend is dead.

Anonymous said...

All the DUMB fucking talk here ain't worth shit, for every HOMER renter loser on BB2 there are ten young couples in BEND that would DIE to own a home in BEND at todays prices.too bad most of them have lost their jobs and are moving back to the city.

Anonymous said...

From $800K to SHITHOLE RENTAL in just 18 months.

This is Bend.

*

Yep, you just know that two 25 yr old's are going to be having some great partys for $500/mo.

Ditto for the guy I met last night at deschutes, got a Eugene GF, he's 30, she's going to have have the dorm out in Bend every weekend, he's got a six-bdrm for $500/mo, BrokenTop $1M, owner sitting at $600K with NO fucking offer's in three years. Owner decided they can't retire, and NOW doesn't want to live in BEND, who could have guessed?????

Anonymous said...

too bad most of them have lost their jobs and are moving back to the city.

*

That's your BEND, not MINE,

In my 40+ years in this town, it was always $500/mo for an apt, and $750/mo for a house, and most people who worked had two part-time jobs, ...

The BEND that you fuck-heads that came in the last ten years know was never real,

WELCOME to MY real Bend shit-heads.

The Bend of my fondest dreams has returned the real fucking Bend, ...

Sure as hell if you live over your means, you MUST leave, ... great.

We're getting rid of all the consumers, ...

Soon the pickups will be rolling back to Bend, and buster will be in nirvanna.

Anonymous said...

too bad most of them have lost their jobs and are moving back to the city.

*

See you just defined your self, ... these people never had 'jobs', they had illusions, they came and lived off equity, or dreams, but they never had jobs, ..

So as you want with government job, it has security, ... only a fuck-wit came to Bend with an illusion of permanent wealth, ...

But there are many very comfortable people in Bend, with good stable jobs, ..

So good, toilet is finally being flushed, and the parasites have found the door.

Anonymous said...

From $800K to SHITHOLE RENTAL in just 18 months.

This is Bend.


*

Yes, isn't KARMA beautiful, to see BEND's most beautiful people lose their fucking righteous ass?

They took over Bend, and used their life savings and they borrowed easy-money, and created a hot-air balloon.

Now they ain't got shit to show for anything, except they got animal-house tenants paying $500/mo for a $1M or more home, ...

I love Bend.

KARMA folks KARMA

PopGoesBend said...

>YOU old miserable fucking cunts forget that 25 yr-old youth have dreams and don't give a fuck about saving $10k they want it NOW, ... sure I would rather have them stay in my rental,

>To wait a year or two for another 10%, may sound great to a 50 yr old renter-loser, but a 25 yr old doesn't think that way.


That is some funny shit. If you think it's only going down another 10% you have your head so far up your ass we can't see your armpits.

Anonymous said...

>>All the DUMB fucking talk here ain't worth shit, for every HOMER renter loser on BB2 there are ten young couples in BEND that would DIE to own a home in BEND at todays prices.

Do we really have a ten-to-one ratio of renting young couples dying to buy over renting losers?

If so, we're good.

Anonymous said...

How many, of our 80,000, are OK and how many are fucked? Of those OK today, how many get fucked as the city shrinks?

Anonymous said...

With no job what's a person to do?

Kill the grass in the back yard,
till it, mix in some manure, and grow some vegetables and beans.

Have some pigs that you can feed all your organic kitchen waste to. Use the pig manure to fertilize the garden.

It's back to nature folks! LIving off the land. Just like they do in Buster's SE Asia fantasy world.

Anonymous said...

Clearly, what city gov't should be doing is setting up about twenty thousand Bendites with sweet Internet Security jobs,

St Paddy said...

Just finished floating the river, even drank a few beers while floating(didn't get busted) Now we're off to another barbecue. Damn this recession sucks. :)

Anonymous said...

Just got done with a 6 mile hike with some great views of Broken Top, Tumalo, Bachelor...god this place is horrible I tell ya.

Anonymous said...

I don't see these messages as contradictory at all. Some people are living the good life. That doesn't mean that the city hasn't turned into a wretched place for thousands.

Anonymous said...

Some people are living the good life. That doesn't mean that the city hasn't turned into a wretched place for thousands.*
*
agreed but at the same time, life is what you make of it.

But when things where booming, this was the greatest place these kooks ever knew....couldn't wait to tell all their friends about the good life. Now that they are hurting, it's a fuckin "desert wasteland".

5 years ago, kooks were so proud to here they had to slap a BND sticker on there car to announce to the rest of us that they were special too.

Oh well, it's a great place IMO...

Bewert said...

Re: WELCOME to MY real Bend shit-heads.

The Bend of my fondest dreams has returned the real fucking Bend, ...

Sure as hell if you live over your means, you MUST leave, ... great.

We're getting rid of all the consumers, ...

Soon the pickups will be rolling back to Bend, and buster will be in nirvanna.

####

Glad to see Buster's back and delusional as ever.

As long as you like Bend, don't mind the cold nights freezing your garden, and can ignore the panhandlers, I'm happy for you.

I'm glad I made the decision to leave. Saw my first homeless guy a few days ago. Haven't seen a panhandler yet. Had a nice hike in the mountains a mile away, rode my bikes, etc. You can do all that in many, many places in the west.

And then worked on some web stuff, before perusing the 270+ jobs listed locally. EBay closed its Vancouver center and is bringing about 200 more jobs averaging $52,000 here in the next few months. And one of their contractors, Convergys, is doing a bunch of hiring as well. EBay seems to be the last refuge of those in economic stress.

After all, you could be in Dutch Harbor.

Which I thought was one of the stupidest fucking comparisions I've ever seen here--the fucking crabbers won't even live there. They all go to Homer as soon as the season's over.

But there are a lot of nice cities with riding, hiking, skiing, climbing, kayaking, etc. sprinkled all over the west. Bend simply isn't exceptional in that area. That's as delusional as thinking Bend RE is exceptional.

But if you are economically self-sufficient and have most of your friends there, your kids in school, etc. I can see no reason to move right now.

And delusional RE folks seem to exist everywhere. I did notice a "Reduced" sign out riding today pitching a 1.6 acre lot in a nice suburban area that "permits for up to 6 horses!" for $100K. I suspect that prices here are being maintained with duct tape, bubble gum and faith here as well.

Lot's of faith--the local ward put flags in front of everyone's front yard, whether you wanted one or not, for Memorial Day. The joys of a patriotic theologic state. NOT. Nothing's ever perfect.

Except Malay, if we are to believe Buster!

BTW, Buster, during your extended Malay fuck-a-thon you might have missed that those fine government police, teacher, pothole filler, etc. jobs are being cut back, too...but then you know what you know, facts be damned. Nursing is probably the only safe job right now.

Nice choice of naturals this week, Butter. Got to love them.

Bewert said...

Actually I made a mistake on that job count. Just searched all jobs from the sltrib.com classifieds and came up with 1228 listed. Must have just been searching tech and internet jobs...

Anonymous said...

I rode my bike here from Mt. Hood 18 years ago with nothing but a backpack full of clothes.

*
Praise the lord, I came here to ORYGUN in 1964 with a pickup, and a home-built shell, that had all I owned, and I setup base-camp

*****

I came here from Cali in 2007 with an expensive mortgage, real estate liscence, expense SUV, moved to NWX and set up base camp. and I aint leaving! in fact I have friends moving out this summer-

We have a few more years until the internet is destroyed until then, tele-commuters WILL move here. The town is a total BUST- which actually kinda makes it cool. The other cool thing about Bend is it is a safe haven 12/21/2012- unless the wildfires get us- but all in all it is protected.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Bully prints an Armageddon piece (sub'n req'd):

Being prepared: What would you stock in an economic meltdown?
Interest in emergency supplies spikes

May 26, 2009 4:00 am

SAN DIEGO — Six months ago, Jim Wiseman didn’t even have a spare nutrition bar in his ....MORE

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Case Schiller's out...

Housing data sends jitters through world markets
US home prices fell 19.1% in the first quarter, down from an 18.2% drop in the earlier quarter, according to data collected for Standard & Poor's/Case-Schiller index.

Analysts had been expecting today's data to show a further recovery, with forecasts ranging between a fall of 17.9 to 18.9%.

With fear growing that increased joblessness is set to lead to further foreclosures even in the prime market, the data sent new jitters across global markets...

hbm said...

"Just got done with a 6 mile hike with some great views of Broken Top, Tumalo, Bachelor...god this place is horrible I tell ya."

So you think this place is "paradise" just because you can see some mountains?

Like Bruce says: "Had a nice hike in the mountains a mile away, rode my bikes, etc. You can do all that in many, many places in the west."

There is NOTHING, except downhill skiing, you can do in Bend that you can't do in literally dozens, if not hundreds, of other places in this country. That's why the Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism is such a crock.

Anonymous said...

Like Bruce says: "Had a nice hike in the mountains a mile away, rode my bikes, etc. You can do all that in many, many places in the west."

There is NOTHING, except downhill skiing, you can do in Bend that you can't do in literally dozens, if not hundreds, of other places in this country. That's why the Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism is such a crock.
*
*

Sure, I lived in more than a few mountain towns and you can do that sort of stuff in all of them. It's not that Bend is exceptional, it's that it ain't so bad dude. Could be much worse IMO.

Whine on bitches....

hbm said...

"It's not that Bend is exceptional, it's that it ain't so bad dude. Could be much worse IMO."

Yep. It could be Detroit or Dutch Harbor. The point ain't that it ain't so bad -- it's that it ain't the unique "paradise" it's cracked up to be. Which is why the notion that people would pay astronomically inflated prices to live here is, always has been and always will be bullshit.

Anonymous said...

So many suckers got creamed here on RE that I don't think we'll be seeing inflated prices for a long time. Bend will be known as where you go to lose money.

Anonymous said...

Yep, there are a lot of mountain type towns that are nice, where you can ski and bike. But one other major factor to consider about Bend. LOCATION!

How long does it take you to drive to the beach for the weekend from ANY town in Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Nevada, Jewtah, Wyoming, etc. And you can only catch a steelhead or salmon in one of those states (Idaho). And a Halibut...nope.

If you live in Bend you can drive for 3 hours and spend the weekend in one of the nicest cities on the west coast. Pro sports, good restaurants, a Zoo, cultural events, etc. Sure you can do some of that stuff in Salt Lake Shitty, or Butt Montana,or Denver, but who the hell would want to? You can walk around in downtown Portland on any given day and run into a friend. It's got that small-town feel about it that's nice.

And let's go East, shall we? The John Day, Lower Deschutes, Kymberly, Joseph, French Glen, Baker City, etc., etc....

Seems to me that If I were to actually hurt myself on that bike, or those skis, I would be pretty darned happy to live in Bend. For a city our size, we have phenomenal medical facilities. C'mon, open heart surgery?

So H. Bowel Movement, why the fuck don't you just move, and stop your incessant whining. Hell what the fuck would it matter where you live anyway. You probably spend the vast majority of your time behind a computer screen.

Jelement said...

That's why the Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism is such a crock.Not everyone moved here because we were under the assumption that Bend was somehow exceptional or better than anywhere else. There were plenty of places we could have gone but there was family here so it made sense.

Some of us actually like being 150+ miles away from a major city and not living along a major highway. Not everyone is here to buy a McMansion on the west side that is 10 feet away from your neighbors. A couple acres with a modest house and room for plants/animals has always been our goal, and there's a lot more people with that same mindset here than there was in the bay area.

Sure, there's frost, and a short growing season, but nothing that can't be worked around with some effort.

The morons who think that recovery is around the corner and we'll see RE back to normal in a year or two are clearly stupid, but hopefully those are the people who are on their way out of town.

As for buying a house now instead of in a year because prices might be less, you could probably continue with that mindset for years to come, always waiting for next year and never getting anywhere. If the mortgage payment makes sense I'd rather get in and start setting up my land the way I want it than sit around waiting in a rental. If I'm not planning on selling then it doesn't matter what happens to the price, when we're only talking about $200k. That same thinking applied to the McMansion prices of years past doesn't work. Besides, the coming inflation will make it easy to pay off a home early.

Anonymous said...

In the 1982 recession, Oregon lost population, overall.
Does anyone have an idea what a 10% drop in Bend population over the next 2 years would do.??
Can we absorb that?

Anonymous said...

Man, if you hurt yourself mountain biking and end up with open heart surgery as a result, call Oprah's booking. You gotta story to tell!

Anonymous said...

Ah, the optimists are getting bold. Time to call a bottom eh? Must be time for another 20% drop.

Bewert said...

Jelement has a great point re: family. We have family in Salt Lake, Orange County, Reno, and northern Wisconsin. OC is fun to visit but a bit much for living. Northern Wisco is too cold in the winter, although summers are nice. Reno remains a possibility down the road. Having more family and friends in the SLC area was a big decision factor.

Butter, those C-S numbers are chilling. Things still have a long way to go to shake out. Calculated Risk has a good post comparing Price-to-Rent, Price-to-Income and real prices based on the Case-Shiller quarterly national home price index here: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/house-prices-real-prices-price-to-rent.html

CR basically states that all things point to continuing RE price declines. And as Dunc regularly notes, we even started to see the tip of the commercial RE mess yet.

April Bend UE numbers should be up any minute here:
http://olmis.emp.state.or.us/olmisj/AllRates?adjusted=n

On gardening, I did some research when making a decision, and the numbers confirmed by experience. Bend only has an average frost free period of 65 days. No wonder I just could not grow my fucking tomatoes :) Sandy, southeast of SLC up against the mountains, has an average frost free period of 135 days. Data links:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliTFrezD.pl?orbend

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/freezeDates.php

On a totally unrelated note, a clue as to BushCo's motives for war, and rather unsettling at that:
http://men.style.com/gq/features/topsecret

SecDef Top Secret briefings hand delivered by Rummy to Bush with cover sheets that had US soldiers at war in Iraq caption with Biblical verses like "Commit to the LORD whatever you do, and your plans will succeed. Proverbs 16:3"

WTF?

Jelement said...

Reno remains a possibility down the road.Now there's a place that really, REALLY sucks. It seems that outside of the major casinos (and major in Reno is a joke) most of the mid-level casinos change owners every few years now, and most of Virginia St. is a dump. The south end of town has grown a lot and down there maybe you can ignore downtown but the place just feels like a dump.

As someone who goes to Reno for four days every year over the last 15 years it really just feels older and more run down every time I visit. Then again, they have a Cabela's out by Boomtown now which is kinda cool, if Sportsman's Warehouse decides to follow Joe's and head out of town we could really use one here too.

Gun sales are up, if you believe what the ammo reps are telling people, they can't crank out the bullets fast enough to meet demand. Fishing/Hunting/Camping supplies in general should start to sell more than usual over the next several years if the interest in living off the land continues to grow. All the sage rat hunters I saw around Christmas Valley this weekend need to get ammo somewhere too - a smart person can plan ahead and order online, but a quality shop like Cabela's is one retailer that might actually do okay in this area even with things the way they are.

Bewert said...

New UE number for Bend: 15.9%

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have an idea what a 10% drop in Bend population over the next 2 years would do.??*
*
I think we'll be lucky/unlucky if it's only 10%. I am thinking we've already lost 5K. I was thinking we are headed back to 50K people in the next 24 months. Skiing, Cycling, fishing, golf, camping, hunting we do have. Jobs are another story.

I had a guy email me a resume today and I told him to stay in PDX where he had least had hope for finding a decent job.

Anonymous said...

Houses are going back to where they belong, which is affordable to anyone with a reasonably good job. If they don't drop back to those levels, there is ZERO incentive to buy them for either would be owners or as investments. (I own a single bend rental property).

Anonymous said...

>>New UE number for Bend: 15.9%

What was the old number?

Anonymous said...

It's not about calling the bottom anymore, it's about realizing that there will never be again in our lifetimes a real estate boom like the last one in Bend. Thus, there is no reason to "hurry up and buy". Save the money you need, and buy when you are ready because prices will never again increase in a totally irrational way again. Prices will go from "fire sale" levels to "fair" in this recession\depression. You might get lucky and get "fire sale" but the worst you will get by waiting is "fair".

hbm said...

"Bend only has an average frost free period of 65 days. No wonder I just could not grow my fucking tomatoes"

You can have frost any night of the year in Bend. But based on my own tomato-growing attempts, it's not the frost that's the big problem; you can cover your plants and protect them from frost. The big problem is that the soil never really warms up. The tomatoes are very slow to set fruit and the fruit is very slow to grow and ripen.

"Reno remains a possibility down the road. Now there's a place that really, REALLY sucks."

I agree totally.

Anonymous said...

House prices could dive if mortgage rates go up, except for very cheap houses that are typically bought with cash.

The big question is what _kind_ of inflation will we have. If we have food and fuel go up without wages, houses will drop still further. If we get wage inflation, houses may start going up. But only in places with decent jobs.

It's really hard to paint a picture where Bend RE goes up, but I can imagine prices going up elsewhere

Anonymous said...

Somehow, it makes sense to me that someone foolish enough to buy into the Bend con would be foolish enough to buy into the Reno con.

hbm said...

"For a city our size, we have phenomenal medical facilities. C'mon, open heart surgery?"

I've had no experience with open heart surgery, but what I've seen of the way medicine is practiced in Bend leaves me distinctly unimpressed.

And you don't have many choices. For example, there are only two ENT clinics in Central Oregon.

Oregonians in general, and Bendites in particular, are great at telling themselves that everything they have (their climate, their recreation, their coast, their mountains, their university system) is just super-terrific, outstanding, top of the line. I suspect Bend's claim of "phenomenal medical facilities" is in that same vein -- not quite as high-octane bullshit as our "300 days of sunshine" or our "best skiing in the West," but still bullshit.

You do get nice views from the rooms at St. Chuck's, but aside from that, if I ever have anything seriously wrong with me I'll take the Mayo Clinic.

Anonymous said...

I get tons of tomatoes every year.

The trick is to plant them in pots, keep the pots in a little red wagon...or three and move them in and out when the temps get anywhere near 37 degrees. You can cover them and that works good until the wind picks up and rips the cover off. Mobile tomatoes are the only way to produce consistently without a greenhouse. Don't bother planting them until the 2nd or 3rd week in June.

Reno...seriously, WTF?

Love Tahoe skiing but the crowds and elevated kook factor keep me away from that area for all but the best of powder days.

Jelement said...

foolish enough to buy into the Reno con.

Is there even a Reno con? That seems like it would be impossible to pull off. How do you put a positive spin on wind, meth, and run down hotels all over town?

Bewert said...

Re: Reno con

####

I've been there about five times, have a brother-in-law that lives in the old town area which is quite nice. Been to Cabela's and the other big sporting goods store out there. Skied Mt. Rose, which is way more interesting than Mt. B. Haven't been to the outskirts much or the Siberian subdivs, which I am sure are as ugly as those in Bend or the Salt Lake Valley. Also, biking is a real question. It is pretty small for a metro area at around 400,000.

Steve seems to have a pretty decent life within a mile or so of his house, very similar to Bend's westside. Some nice restaurants, hardware stores, other necessities a cruiser ride away. They even have a paddle trail on the river inside a downtown park, something that Bend is working on.

As for buying into a con--haven't yet. Which is why I could leave Bend when I decided to. Although moving dug into the savings a bit more than desirable.

HBM--I think you hit the nail on the head with soil temps. I never had a problem with spring frosts i.e. covering them when small, but come August/September, right when we started getting ripe fruit, covering the big plants was a chore. I eventually built a cart that held four big pots that I could wheel into the garage at night. But if I slacked one night, that sneaky early frost got me sometimes.

Anonymous said...

I think we'll be lucky/unlucky if it's only 10%. I am thinking we've already lost 5K. I was thinking we are headed back to 50K people in the next 24 months. Skiing, Cycling, fishing, golf, camping, hunting we do have. Jobs are another story.

I had a guy email me a resume today and I told him to stay in PDX where he had least had hope for finding a decent job.


***

Saw two more houses starting to clear out this weekend. One had been for sale last summer. I suspect this will get worse.

Jelement said...

What was the old number?

Bend MSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Apr 2009 - 15.6%
Mar 2009 - 16.7%
Apr 2008 - 6.6%

Bend MSA - Seasonally Adjusted
Apr 2009 - 15.9%
Mar 2009 - 14.4%
Apr 2008 - 6.7%

Bewert said...

Re: >>New UE number for Bend: 15.9%

What was the old number?

###

14.7% last month. 6.7% last year.

Link to peruse:
http://olmis.emp.state.or.us/olmisj/AllRates

Bewert said...

Note: Jel's numbers are right. I mixed up adjusted and not. Unadjusted are more "real".

With luck the exodus will give you guys better numbers in a couple of months.

Bewert said...

What number do you think the BULL use this time--adjusted or the lower unadjusted?

Jelement said...

What number do you think the BULL use this time--adjusted or the lower unadjusted?

Unadjusted for sure. Headline for tomorrow will be "Local UE Drops by Over 1 Percent"

In fairness, BLS uses the unadjusted for their MSA list as well so I wouldn't fault them for going with that one. Of course 15.6% would still be 360/372 even last month, and by the look of things other places are going to see a UE drop as well so I don't think when the list updates later this week that we'll be looking any better in comparison.

Anonymous said...

One thing for sure, homeboy picked some nice titties for once.

Anonymous said...

I like seeing the dickwad real estate promoters getting their due.

But I gotta tell ya I'm not that thrilled with the flipside action. Panhandlers, parking lot knifeguys, methheads, athletic club kids stealing watches out of a neighbor's house to score spending money, and mean asshats who, out of sheer douchebaggery, decide to run into 10 random cars on the way home, or back a boat through a garage door for the hell of it. Not to mention drunks and idiots who end up parked in stores or canals.

As ridiculous and irritating and snobby as this town was four years ago, at least it wasn't depressing and whiny like hbm.

You oldtimers seem to love having a town full of losers hanging outside the closed stores and galleries.

Personally, Bend feels like shit to me now. And when I say that, I'm talking about the people. As for the river and the mountains and the sky, yeah, that still kicks ass. But how do we get these damned people out of here? One way tickets to Eugene?

Anonymous said...

I agree, it does suck to have crime on the rise but nothing sucks like HBM's whining.

How to unload 10K people?...that's a tough one.

Anonymous said...

I see the disaster of Bend's housing bubble all around me.

People keep talking about commercial being the next to drop. I must admit, I don't really understand the commercial real estate market.

What does it look like when it drops? You don't have people losing their homes, so what do you have? Plummeting office rents? Or what? How does it affect the community when commercial real estate dives?

Anonymous said...

How does it affect the community when commercial real estate dives?

*

None of that commercial real estate is paid for. The money used to build it came from banks. With no one to rent the properties, the banks don't get their money back.

More banks fail and there is less credit to go around to the rest of us. Yet more businesses fail, etc., and unemployment.

Or, something like that(?)

Anonymous said...

We were looking into a new commercial space but the bank wouldn't give us a 5 year lease. They wanted to be able to raise the rates when the market comes back in 3 years. That didn't bother me as much as the fact that the bank was reviewing the lease terms...that's a bad sign.

Anonymous said...

Does the bank really think the market is coming back in 3 years?

Anonymous said...

Builders who can't rent for the amount they need to service the loan.

Builders who go bankrupt.

Banks who are unwilling to lower the rents. (waiting for it to come back.)

Empty buildings.

Anonymous said...

That's what they told me...bank would only go 3 years on a lease because they wanted the option to up the lease rate when the market comes back.

Just the fact that the bank had any input on the deal made me walk.

Found another place in a better location for the same price and they were happy to lock us in for 5 years like anyone in their right might would. I wondered if I was dumb for going that long because they might be giving them away 2 years from now.

I said it the other day...there are some people who really feel like the end of this mess is in sight. Loony bastards....

Anonymous said...

Left out the last couple of steps.

Empty buildings, making it harder for the local economy to come back.

Thus lowering rents elsewhere, putting further downward pressure on the banks, who capitulate and sell the same things for next to nothing.

Anonymous said...

You oldtimers seem to love having a town full of losers hanging outside the closed stores and galleries.

*

I pay those losers to stand there, so you righteous fuck-heads move out, back to eugene or cali, or pdx.

Bewert said...

Re: Just the fact that the bank had any input on the deal made me walk.

####

That is a bit weird, in a desparate way. Was it REO? Why else would the bank be involved?

####


Re: I pay those losers to stand there, so you righteous fuck-heads move out, back to eugene or cali, or pdx.

####

You drove me out.

Why the fuck would I want to pass a beggar every time I went through a busy corner?

Welcome to Poorville.

You can have it, Buster.

Anonymous said...

HBM Said...
You do get nice views from the rooms at St. Chuck's, but aside from that, if I ever have anything seriously wrong with me I'll take the Mayo Clinic.You're full of shit, asshole. You'd be the first one praising every fucking doctor in this town if that heart of yours skipped a couple and you had to take a ride in the big red meat wagon to old St. Chuck's. You can shove your Mayo Clinic up your ass, pudwacker.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't it just six months ago on this very board that people were saying St Charles was subpar? Now it's great?

Anonymous said...

if you have ever spent time in the ER or ICU in a major metro area, you'd be thrilled to end up a SCMC. Is it the best of the best...fuck no but it's better than most. We do have some great Ortho's in town.

How does HBM get up in the morning?

Anonymous said...

MAY 27, 2009
Is Your Home A Good Investment?
As assets, homes provide only modest annual returns in the long run.
By BRETT ARENDS- WSJ

Article
Comments (10)
MORE IN INVESTING »

There's the usual talk about what the latest Case-Shiller house price data mean for the next short term move in the real estate market. Has housing bottomed? If not, has the rate of decline slowed? And when will we see an upturn?

Human nature likes the short term. Which is why so little attention is paid to something that is probably more important, if less urgent: What the latest data show about the long-term of the real estate market.

And it's startling.

We have just been through the biggest boom in real estate in American history. The subsequent bust surely hasn't finished.


Bloomberg News
Dropping home prices are only one of the factors that keep the annual returns on homes low.
Yet look at the numbers. Since 1987, when the Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities begins, it's risen from an index value of 63 to 151. Annual return: Just 4.1% a year. During that period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 3% a year. Net result: Home prices produced a real return of just 1.15% a year over inflation over that time.

Critics may point out that the analysis is unfair -- after all, it starts counting near the peak of the 1980s housing boom. Fair enough. Look at the performance since, say, early 1994, when home prices were near a historic trough. Surely someone who bought then has made a bundle.

Not necessarily. Since then the ten-city index has risen from a value of 76 to 151. Annual return: 4.7%. Inflation over that period: 2.5%. That's still only a real return of 2.2% a year above inflation.

You can often do better on long-term inflation protected government bonds.

And real estate often costs 2% or more a year in property taxes, condo fees, maintenance, insurance and the like.

Conventional wisdom long held that home ownership was a route to wealth, and the imputed rent -- in other words, the right to live in your home -- was just part of the value you got from it. Under that widespread view, the recent housing bust was simply a temporary, though deep, pothole.

Yet for very many people, even over the past 15 or 20 years, the imputed rent may have been all, or nearly all, the real value they actually got from their home.

Yes, it's only recent data. And it's only ten cities. But there's some reason to suspect these numbers may, if anything, flatter real estate performance. After all, it's hard to look at the data and figure the bust is now over. And if they fall further, those long-term return figures will fall too.

Prices weren't just down 19% over the past year. They fell 2% just between February and March. And it's not the worst-hit markets that worry me the most -- Phoenix is down 53% from its peak, Miami 47%. That smells of capitulation. It's the other markets. New York and Boston are only down 20%. Denver's only down 14%.

Overall the ten- and 20-city Case-Shiller indices are merely back to mid-2003 levels. After the biggest boom and bust on record, history suggests things don't stop getting worse until they've gotten a lot worse than tha

Anonymous said...

Median House Price Reduction Required to Reach Historic Price/Income Ratio (Median Multiple)

1) New York, NY-NJ-PA $122,200
2) Portland, OR-WA $94,700
3) Seattle, WA $94,400
4) Baltimore, MD $74,700
5) Salt Lake City, UT $73,800

Where is SF? to much friggin money there.

Anonymous said...

We were looking into a new commercial space but the bank wouldn't give us a 5 year lease. They wanted to be able to raise the rates when the market comes back in 3 years. That didn't bother me as much as the fact that the bank was reviewing the lease terms...that's a bad sign.

******

Don't you see the system is taking over!... the banks controlled by the GOV- now controlling how much money your business profits.
Obama appointed a " Internet Cezar" today.

This has been in the planning stages for a VERY long time.

It a spiritual thing, prepare yourself now- change is a coming,

Bewert said...

Re: if you have ever spent time in the ER or ICU in a major metro area, you'd be thrilled to end up a SCMC.

####

Which hospitals exactly have you experienced other than St. Chuck?

Let's take a look at a guy who fell 150 feet into a ravine, rescued by helicoper crew, and taken to a socialist hospital in Italy:
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/Pedro_Horrillo_getting_better_day_by_day_article_283157.html

That's in an Italian socialist single payer medical system.

Fuck, you wouldn't want to end up there, would you? Considering this guy fell about 150 feet into a ravine off his bike. And lived. Thanks to that fucking socialist government medicine.

####

Personally I had a great experience in another hospital near a mountain, fixing my tib-fib fracture. Mountain docs have experience with that shit. Just like retirement community docs know a lot about dialysis and heart issues.

Major metro area ER's? You really think they don't know shit? They deal with more nasty shit than in a day than St. Chucks does in a week.

Please share your actual experience if you disagree.

####

The argument is more sensible if it states "...you wouldn't want to end up in fucking Burns ER, would you"?

Nope, no more than fucking Nebo, UT ER...or Fallon, NV ER.

Fucking dumbass. Back it up.

Anonymous said...

Prices of houses can NOT rise, while unemployment continues to grow. Even responsible people, paying the mortgage, are loosing their jobs, resulting in foreclosure. This is not like any other recession we have had since 1929. You can not predict the upturn, based on past recessions.This is very, very different.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Dave Hamilton goes broke, local Unemployment at multi-decade highs.... and the Bully prints a freebie 2 paragraph piece of shit about The Recession Is Finally Over!! A survey of economist who predicted this thing would never happen...

Costa, try giving away the news online that's actually interesting.

Anonymous said...

Check out
exurbannation.blogspot.com

There is a picutre of hundreds of BMW SUV's stored at the So.Cal.airport.

NO Buyers!!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Not to mention Case Shiller... down 19% YoY

Anonymous said...

Major metro area ER's? You really think they don't know shit? They deal with more nasty shit than in a day than St. Chucks does in a week.*
*
where in my post did I say they "don't know shit" Pay attention Bruce...

What you will find is that they are crowded, hectic, short on supplies/equipment during flu season, long waits for ER, staffed by the average, dirty.

Bruce likes to argue for the hell of it...maybe that's part of the issue.

I thought you were going to leave us something special on your way out the door Bruce? I have looked at your blogs and I don't see anything new? Promises Promises...?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We're about 1 cunt hair away from having unemployment as bad as Jeff County...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I guess if you want decent local news, go to KTVZ.com...

Central Oregon jobless rates still soaring higher

Deschutes County (Bend MSA): The county's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 15.9 percent in April from a revised rate of 14.4 percent in March. The rate is more than double the rate of one year ago. It is once again the highest rate since at least 1990, when the seasonally adjusted series began.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In the public sector, federal government added 60 jobs while local government lost 140 jobs and state government lost 10 jobs.

THANK YOU OBAMA JEEBUS!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Three industries had slight job losses from last month: educational and health services (-30), and durable goods manufacturing (-10). Even with the small loss in durable goods manufacturing, manufacturing as a whole held steady.

Obviously the Cessna closure has not been counted yet...

Anonymous said...

>>Obviously the Cessna closure has not been counted yet...

Yeah I think they work through the summer before it closes.

Anonymous said...

Why the fuck would I want to pass a beggar every time I went through a busy corner? Don't move to San Francisco whatever you do. We call it "running the gauntlet" there are so many of them.

Anonymous said...

Home Prices Fall in First Quarter - bend among the worst: http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/2399/1q09hpi.pdf

tim said...

But Bend still has impressive five year numbers, despite the raunchiness of its quarterly and 1-year numbers.

I think we still have quite a drop ahead. Not all the Bend excess has been wrung out.

hbm said...

"We do have some great Ortho's in town."

That's great if what you need is an orthopedist. If you need an ENT -- sorry, only two choices. Need a good internist? Damn few of those. A urologist? Only a couple of those. A cancer surgeon? Sorry, don't have even one of those.

"How does HBM get up in the morning?"

Very slowly and creakily.

hbm said...

"That's in an Italian socialist single payer medical system."

Another comparison between socialized medicine and the fucked-up American kind:

One of my nieces is married to an Englishman and lives in England. He's had multiple serious surgeries, the most recent one last week. He was kept in the hospital for a week to make sure everything was okay.

Another of my nieces lives in Wisconsin. Her husband had prostate surgery two days ago. They made him go home THE SAME DAY.

Why? Because in our wonderful crapitalist system, insurance companies won't pay for a hospital stay unless you're seven-eighths dead. If you're conscious and you can walk or crawl, out the door you go.

This is one reason hospitals like St. Chuck's are hemorrhaging money.

Anonymous said...

But hbm's story gets sadder when the person left in the hospital on watch picks up aggressive staph infection.

Bewert said...

Re:
What you will find is that they are crowded, hectic, short on supplies/equipment during flu season, long waits for ER, staffed by the average, dirty.

Bruce likes to argue for the hell of it...maybe that's part of the issue.

I thought you were going to leave us something special on your way out the door Bruce? I have looked at your blogs and I don't see anything new? Promises Promises...?

####

I blew my shoulder side-slipping the course at speed with a bundle ofgates onboard for MBSEF a couple of springs ago. Went to St. Chucks ER and the wait was so long I just went home. Later MRI saw 2/3's of the rotator cuff torn, but that will heal itself with care. Which it has.

I have the ethics complaint ready to go, shortened to a plea of proper notice. But I was way too busy moving to deal with it, plus you have to live in the city. I will gladly provide it to anyone who is still in the City of Bend that wants to file it. Just email me.

###

Want to hear something funny?

You've got to pay a $150 fee plus $25/month to even access Salt Lake County recorder records. That is fucked up.

And, yeah, I like to argue.

###

Truth from HST:

"We have become a Nazi monster in the eyes of the whole world-a nation of bullies and bastards who would rather kill than live peacefully. We are not just Whores for power and oil, but killer whores with hate and fear in our hearts. We are human scum, and that is how history will judge us... No redeeming social value. Just whores. Get out of our way, or we'll kill you. Well, shit on that dumbness. George W. Bush does not speak for me or my son or my mother or my friends or the people I respect in this world. We didn't vote for these cheap, greedy little killers who speak for America today- and we will not vote for them again in 2002. Or 2004. Or ever. Who does vote for these dishonest shitheads? Who among us can be happy and proud of having all this innocent blood on our hands? Who are these swine? These flag-sucking half-wits who get fleeced and fooled by stupid little rich kids like George Bush? They are the same ones who wanted to have Muhammad Ali locked up for refusing to kill "gooks". They speak for all that is cruel and stupid and vicious in the American character. They are racists and hate mongers among us-they are the Ku Klux Klan. I piss down the throats of these Nazis. And I am too old to worry about whether they like it or not. Fuck them."

--Hunter S. Thompson 1939 - 2005

Let me repeat: FUCK THEM

Bewert said...

PS: Our health care system is the most fucked up in the entire civilized world. Simple as that.

We pay far more per capita than any other country for outcomes that don't even rank in the top 30. We rank next to Cuba in simple things like life expectancy and infant deaths.

Fact. See http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/1/23/293936/-Overton-Window:-Simple-facts-on-single-payer-UPDATED:-Wait-times

Excerpt:
" 1. The US pays far more for health care than any other country in the world, at 15.3% of GDP (next highest is Switzerland at 11.6%, 30-country average is 8.9%) and at $6100 per person (next highest is Luxembourg at $5090 per person, the 30-country average is $2550)

2. The two major outcomes for measuring healthcare are infant mortality and life expectancy, and in both we fall well below the 30-country average. To quote:

Most OECD countries have enjoyed large gains in life expectancy over the past 40 years. In the United States, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.6 years between 1960 and 2003, which is less than the increase of over 14 years in Japan, or 8.6 years in Canada. In 2004, life expectancy in the United States stood at 77.5 years, below the OECD average of 78.3 years. Japan, Iceland, Switzerland, Sweden and Australia were the 5 countries registering the highest life expectancy.

Infant mortality rates in the United States have fallen greatly over the past few decades, but not as much as in most other OECD countries. It stood at 6.9 deaths per 1000 live births in 2003, above the OECD average of 5.7. Among OECD countries, infant mortality is the lowest in Japan and in the Nordic countries (Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Finland), with rates all below 3.5 deaths per 1 000 live births.

3. What is the primary difference in our system and 28 of the 30 others? They all have single-payer, non-profit, government-run systems. Most also have additional private insurers for those that want and can afford them

UPDATE: On the argument that all those single-payer countries have horrible wait times:

In OECD countries with no observed waiting times for elective surgery – such as the United States, France, Switzerland, Japan, Belgium and Germany – all insured individuals enjoy timely access to care irrespective of whether their main form of coverage is public or private health insurance."

Links:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/52/36960035.pdf

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/34/56/33698043.pdf

Keep that in mind during the summer debate over health care.

Canada went through this shit in the early 60's. The first province to enact single payer universal, Saskatchewan, even had its doctors go on strike to protest it.

Another good article on the history of Canada's move to single payer universal health care: Canada's Controversial Health System Another heavily footnoted history of single-payer universal coming to Canada: PHYSICIANS' VIEWS ON THE SOCIALIZATION OF MEDICINE IN CANADA FROM 1962 TO 1966 Does this affect Bend?

Do you or does your family ever require medical care?

Feel free to pass these facts on.

Bewert said...

Went to my first job interview, and was hired, today. Seems like they have a need for knowledgeable people around here.

Jonesy said...

Big sale at Mountain Comfort is a joke. Who comes up with these prices? Same for the Falling Star sale - or auction - whatever that was. Only three furniture stores left in Bend?

Anonymous said...

Bewert said...
Went to my first job interview, and was hired, today. Seems like they have a need for knowledgeable people around here.
Boy, this speaks volumes about how fucked up things are in Salt Shake Shitty, Jewtah.

Anonymous said...

Went to my first job interview, and was hired, today. Seems like they have a need for knowledgeable people around here.

==============

SLC Craigslist's Erotic Services section is always hiring BP.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Big sale at Mountain Comfort is a joke. Who comes up with these prices?

No kidding... $2,000 for a crappy chair? And that's "On Sale". No wonder they're going under.

Wake up D's, no one's buying that bullshit...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

>>Obviously the Cessna closure has not been counted yet...

Yeah I think they work through the summer before it closes.


I heard Friday is the last day... tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

who'da thought...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124337975286456249.html

Anonymous said...

Best way to get a job here is to go from place to place in person. My wife just got a job but we have lived here since 92 and it does pay to know people

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Home Prices Fall in First Quarter - bend among the worst: http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/2399/1q09hpi.pdf

261 out of 294 MSA's... that puts us at the 89th percentile in the country in terms of appreciation.

Just a little more people, can we can slip into the lowest 10%! C'mon people!

Anonymous said...

"Home Prices Fall - bend among the worst"

Bad for sellers, but good for buyers . . .

Anonymous said...

I have the ethics complaint ready to go, shortened to a plea of proper notice. But I was way too busy moving to deal with it, plus you have to live in the city. I will gladly provide it to anyone who is still in the City of Bend that wants to file it. Just email me.

###

Want to hear something funny?
=====================

Hey Pussy, we just did. The whole paragraph was your "something funny".

When will hbm write up the complete "Pussy in Bend" history in tsweekly.com? I'll write the headline:

"Utah Blowhard blows into town, blows hard for two years, blows outta town back to Utah, and just keeps blowing hard remotely."

tim said...

Glad you're doing well, Bruce. Is there a local blog there for you to hang out at? Maybe got your own local Buster?

hbm said...

excellent piece in the current New Yorker about why our health care system is fucked up:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande

Anonymous said...

1 out of 8 Americans with a mortgage is late or in foreclosure process.

Anonymous said...

WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO LIVE IN BEND WHEN THEY COULD LIVE IN NEBRASKA INSTEAD?????

Bewert said...

Re: Glad you're doing well, Bruce. Is there a local blog there for you to hang out at? Maybe got your own local Buster?

###

Amazingly enough I can't find one.

Butter's is one of the most dynamic I've ever come across.

When things slow down a bit I want to try to replicate bendblogs.com here. Doesn't seem to be a blog aggregator around.

Bewert said...

RE: ...and just keeps blowing hard remotely."

####

Will you add the part that describes how you are scared to file an ethics complaint under your own name?

I did once, and met with Mark face to face over it.

You got real balls, or just anonymouse BS?

Bewert said...

Re: Hey Pussy, we just did.

###

Kudo's, if you are for real.

Bewert said...

Re:Bewert said...
Went to my first job interview, and was hired, today. Seems like they have a need for knowledgeable people around here.

Boy, this speaks volumes about how fucked up things are in Salt Shake Shitty, Jewtah.

###

So jobs are bad?

Bewert said...

Re:
SLC Craigslist's Erotic Services section is always hiring BP.

####

While, you know, big cock, clit knowledge, enjoys oral...

Bewert said...

PS My wife has among the best legs I've ever encountered.

Truth.

I love to watch her gardening.

Anonymous said...

"Glad you're doing well, Bruce"

I thought Tim had died?!

LavaBear said...

Holy shit Buster. I am really sorry I didn't believe your Thailand fantasies. I won't question you again. I was skeptical until this article mention you by NAME!!!

From now on you are no longer Buster but simply 3x3x3000. (Nice they added a couple inches to help boost your ego.)

tim said...

Bend now has more houses for sale under $300k than it's ever had before. And we're still a couple months from seasonal peak time.

http://bendhousingdata.com/

Anonymous said...

Here, H.Butt Munch, read this you naysaying fuck. Sounds like St. Charles did a pretty darned good job, for this guy.
----------------------


http://socal2bend.blogspot.com/2009/05/back-from-spain-ankle-completely-blown.html

hbm said...

Sounds like the St. Chuck's ER treated him nice but that Dr. Holmboe, the orthopedic guy in Bend, gave him the cortisone shot in the ankle that screwed him up in the first place. And then he says, "Gosh, that hardly EVER happens!" That's what doctors always say when something goes wrong.

Friend of mine recently had a cortisone shot for neck pain. It left her in more pain than before.

I never said that members of the medical profession in Bend aren't pleasant; they are, generally. But unfortunately pleasantness and competence are not the same.

hbm said...

Did you even read the whole post before you posted a link to it? At the conclusion the poor patient says this:

"Anyway, I got a prescription for a wheelchair so we can bill the insurance company; paperwork to take to the DMV for a handicap sticker for the car; modifications to my painkillers to reduce the risk of liver, kidney, and stomach damage; and a general agreement that my ankle is now and forever blown. Ankle fusion surgery is in my near future."

Does this sound like a good medical outcome to you? Sounds like a horror story to me. If you're trying to prove how wonderful the medical care in Bend is, you'll need better examples than this.

hbm said...

In fairness, let me add that I've encountered medical horror stories all over the country. If you want to stay healthy, the most important thing to do is keep out of the clutches of the American medical profession.

Anonymous said...

Re: socal2bend.blogspot.com/2009/05/back-from-spain-ankle-completely-blown.html

--

That's funny: "They had no idea what the problem was and sent me home with Keflex (an antibiotic), and some meds for pain."

And then Jack got to spend his first vacation in years, to Europe no less, trundling around in a wheelchair.

Yep, sounds like great outcome. ER fixed him right up.

But they were nice about telling him they didn't know WTF was wrong.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'd always heard, hbm, that we got a higher quality of Drs. here for the skiing.

Don't know if it's true...

tim said...

Dunc, I assume you mean our doctors are better at skiing than other doctors.

hbm said...

"I'd always heard, hbm, that we got a higher quality of Drs. here for the skiing."

Sounds bogus to me, part of the typical "everything-in-Bend-is-the-greatest" hype.

Generally speaking, if you're a hotshot doctor from a top medical school you are NOT going to choose to practice in Bend, Oregon for the sake of the skiing. In the first place, propaganda to the contrary notwithstanding, the skiing here ain't that great (or so the experts tell me). In the second place, if you practice in a big city you can make enough money to own a place in Vail or Aspen or maybe Gstaad.

BTW, on the topic of the great heart surgery done at St. Chuck's: I had a friend who had a triple bypass done there some years ago. It went well ... but the surgeon was from PORTLAND. He came over to Bend a few days a month to do bypasses. Evidently none of the local surgeons could quite cut it (pun intended). Maybe that has changed.

I'm not saying all this to run down the quality of medical care in Bend; I'm sure it's about the same as in any other town of our size in America. But I can tolerate only so much of the "everything in Bend is the greatest in the world" bullshit.

It's a case of shit on a cracker, Dunc.

hbm said...

"But they were nice about telling him they didn't know WTF was wrong."

LMAO!!!

Yes, people in Bend are infallibly NICE even if they have no idea WTF they're doing.

About a year and a half ago I had to ask my dentist to recommend an oral surgeon. He gave me the name of one and I asked his assistant what she knew about him. "Oh, you'll like him," she said. "He's real NICE."

"Never mind if he's NICE," I said. "Is he GOOD?"

She looked at me like I had asparagus sprouting out of my ears.

There's a fucking CULT of niceness in this town. Niceness is prized far above competence. You see it everywhere, not just in the medical professions.

hbm said...

I also liked this bit:

"He said he's never had one single cortisone shot go bad like this, and suggested that what might have happened is that when the cortisone initially started working, I started doing more weight bearing on the ankle, and may have simply damaged it. Just a guess. No one knows. My primary care doctor shook her head and said pretty much the same thing: bad reaction or self-damage."

Yeah, that's the ticket -- when in doubt, blame the patient.

Anonymous said...

Surprised Jack didn't march right back down to the specialist after 72 hours of further pain. Or at least call and let him know that things were worse than before.

Anonymous said...

*** crickets chirping ***

*

*** more crickets chirping ***