Sunday, June 15, 2008

THIS POST LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK

Wow! What a week in Real Estate! Bam! Boom! Zing! THAT IS EXCITEMENT!

Ummm. No.

Now that we're in the chronicling phase of this Bubble bursting thing, it is becoming clear that Watching The Biggest Credit & Asset Bubble Of All Time Blow Up is not all that exciting.

And from this lackadaisical, lazy, crazy cold molasses unfolding of events flows one of the more insidious side-effects of this bubble implosion: People waiting FAR beyond when they should to take drastic action.

We collectively are the frogs in the warm water, which is starting to go to a fizzy boil, with just little tiny bubble creeping up the side of the pot. And yet we remain, unmoved.

Were we thrown onto a hot griddle, we'd have jumped right off. But no. We are slowly cooking.

I don't know about you, but I know PLENTY of people who are in dire straits financially due to the local implosion, and they continue to slowly boil, unable or unwilling to mark down assets that the market has devalued long ago.

But it happened so slowly, and continues to happen without shocks to the system, drama, or events of note... so they watch the water steaming around them. And remain unmoved to take action, or even admit the situation is getting desperate.

I know several people who know full well they are in deteriorating financial shape, but they are like a deer in the headlights, frozen by inaction. They know at the "current pace" of things, that they will completely implode financially and lose everything, but they can't move.

Like a game of musical chairs where everyone refuses to devalue their own chair by leaving it, all participants are myopically (selfishly) unwilling or unable to trade chairs with anyone, despite the distinct possibility they are about to lose their chair. Or chairs.

Paradoxically, very few people want their chairs, but no one can get rid of them. And they are unable to see that the price they have put on thier chair is completely unreasonable.

To wit, this Desert Skeeze piece of shit has hit the $80/sf level. Here's the cheap ass kitchen:

Skeezer Kitchen, $80/sf turd.

Not too long ago, Skeeze hit the RIP board, by breaching the $100/sf barrier. This was not that long ago, and still remains FAR below comp's all over town. $80/sf is HALF of what most surrounding property is priced at, and well less than 1/3rd what most similar homes are asking.

So there it is: Your musical chairs are worth half or less than what you paid, but like a frog in a slowly heating pot of water, you remain.

This is why this thing will play out over a much longer period and be so much worse than anyone thinks: Economists theories of rational expectations will be put to the test. People are simply nesting on their bad situations, probably fully aware by now, that they are going to get worse. But they remain unmoved. Unfortunately, they will soon die. Financially, at least.

And I know people who have piled it up substantially over the last 10 or more years, who were going to swing for the fences & get One Last Big Score in Bend's housing market & retire in their 40's. But now they are working furiously to make multiple mortgage payments. And clinging irrationally to the idea that although The Skeeze is running towards $50/sf, BUT their 4 vacant homes at $300/sf are DIFFERENT.

Why? They've been told that everyday for 10 years. Bend is different. Bend is better. I am better. I deserve to get everything I want, after all it's happened that way my whole adult life.

OK, the beginning of last weeks comments got some pretty stiff resistance to my idea that San Fran, and The Bay area are essentially doomed. Even worse is the concept that places like Detroit, Wichita, and Des Moines will DO BETTER over the long haul, than SF.

Mark my words, there is PLENTY of precedent for such a thing happening. Houston had it's oil bubble, and it took 20+ years to recover. LA periodically blows up, and takes about a decade to recover. Tokyo is still in recovery mode 17 years after it's bubble burst.

I cannot think of a single city more susceptible to the plague of this bubble implosion than San Fran. There have been a variety of factors contributing to this. There is no doubt that San Fran has a "real economy", and will not disappear from the globe. But so does Tokyo.

People put forth the argument that I must not "get it" when it comes to San Fran. That San Fran is eternally "hot", and will forever remain an "it" place that people will want to be.

Fine, I agree.

But that doesn't mean a thing with respect to the extent of the credit implosion that will roil that area for the next 20 years.

Look at New York City today. Great, vibrant city. Everyone wants to be there. This wasn't the case 25-30 years ago. Bankrupt, overrun with crime. NYC was a hell hole.

Things change. And they've changed in far larger metro areas than San Fran.

Mark my words: San Fran will probably be the largest metro area to suffer long term effects of this bubble. Vegas, Phoenix, Miami; they will all crash & burn, but they'll come back sooner. San Fran will crash and stay down.

And just going back to my boiling frog analogy. If you're of middle age and ever had any sort of talk with your grandparents, you may have gotten the sense that they became imbued with literally life-changing behavior from dramatic economic events early in their lives; ie Depression Era Economics.

They are frugal to a fault, they rarely buy new clothes, everything is jimmy-rigged, they patch instead of buy new. This is what's coming:

Will youngest boomers go broke?

They're raiding 401(k)s, falling behind on monthly payments and even going without medical care in efforts to keep afloat financially, the AARP warns.

By MarketWatch

The economic woes that are forcing homeowners into foreclosure, choking spending on nondiscretionary goods and driving up credit card bills may claim another group of victims in the coming years: broke baby boomers.

Consumers 45 years and older are raiding or compromising their 401(k) accounts, shirking monthly payments and skipping regular medications and doctor visits at an alarming rate, according to senior advocacy group AARP.

As many as 25% of Americans 45 to 64 said they are taking these steps to stay financially afloat, the AARP found in a recent study. That will put them at a decided disadvantage when retirement rolls around, particularly if they have subverted their health, and may lead to putting that retirement on hold.

At the same time, Standard & Poor's reports that the average American household savings rate remains at 0%, making it "more difficult for older Americans to finance their retirement."

"This is a horrific scenario," said Tom Nelson, AARP's chief operating officer. "People are feeling this pinch in the short term . . . but the long-term consequences that are facing these individuals and our economy for years, if not decades, are frightening."

The AARP survey included people 65 and older but found that those who were having the most difficulty adjusting to declining home values and higher prices for food and energy were 45 to 54, followed by those 55 to 64.

The youngest boomers were having the most problems paying their mortgages or rents. They were also more apt to pull money out of their 401(k) accounts and other investments and change their lifestyles. About 76%, for example, said they are eating out less, and 71% said they are spending less on entertainment.

It's likely, the study said, that the younger respondents are having a tougher time because they still have work and family obligations that place them more at risk during an economic slowdown.

At the same time, many people 65 and older have fewer decisions to make because their spending already has been crimped by their fixed incomes, the study noted.

Grim prospects

If this economic downturn worsens or lingers, Nelson said, the future for the youngest baby boomers could be grim.

Nelson painted this picture: A 45-year-old who postpones bill paying, cuts back on necessary medications and stops contributing to his 401(k) is undermining his credit rating, putting his health at risk and losing an economic base. Fast-forward 20 years, and those issues have only gotten worse. Tack on another 20 years, and the situation could be dire.

Mark Iwry, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said it's hard to catch up on missed 401(k) payments. Not only is the actual payment gone, so, too, is the match by an employer, as well as the growth of the tax-free money. "You've got to put in a larger amount just to replace what you took out earlier," Iwry said.

Making matters worse, he said, people tend to assume they're going to die earlier than they actually do. Many don't plan financially to live until they're 90 because they don't think they'll ever get to be 90.

Continued: Women outlive men

According to the CIA World Fact Book, the average American will live to be at least 78 years old, with women outliving men by about six years.

Meanwhile, the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projects that longer life spans and a generation bubble of aging baby boomers will combine to double the population of Americans 65 years and older during the next 25 years. By 2030, the CDC estimates, there will be 71 million older adults who will account for roughly 20% of the U.S. population.

"People often underestimate their life expectancy," Iwry said. "But more than that, many never focus on or plan for 'longevity risk' -- the 50% chance that they'll outlive the average life expectancy, the 25% chance that they'll outlive it by a lot and the 15% chance that they'll outlive it by a lot more."

"Many people don't plan probabilistically, but life is probabilistic," he added. "We're managing risks here."

Major strains

The S&P report, which calls Americans "dangerously unprepared for retirement," notes that the poor performance of asset markets in recent years is hitting the piggy banks of even those most primed for retirement. The S&P 500 Index, for example, is on track to have its worst decade performance since the Depression.

Indeed, 50% of those surveyed by the AARP said the value of their 401(k) accounts and other investments had dropped over the past 12 months. One-quarter of retirees said their golden-years income had fallen in tandem with interest rates.

"Retiring in a period like this strains assets in the best case, and this is far from the best case," said David Wyss, S&P's chief economist. "If older workers aren't adding to their wealth and if their asset values are falling, the prospects of a comfortable retirement are receding."

At the same time, the prospects of retiring early, or even on time, are dimming. The AARP study found that one-fifth of those who said their stock portfolio is lighter are postponing plans to retire. About 32% of those people are at traditional retirement ages, 55 to 64.

Wyss said he thinks more retirees will look for "bridge" jobs but that such jobs can be hard to find.

Iwry encouraged people to delay retirement -- even by a year -- as a generally painless way to shore up long-term finances.

"Retiring later is not all bad," he said. "People can improve their financial preparedness for retirement fairly dramatically by postponing retirement just a little."

Iwry called the benefits a "three-fer": Each additional year of work adds another year of income, which can add to savings, lessen the number of years without a regular paycheck and generally boost monthly Social Security benefits.

"Many people don't take this 'leveraging effect' into account," Iwry said. "A little deferral of retirement goes a long way financially."

This article was reported and written by Jennifer Waters for MarketWatch.

Published June 13, 2008

This is the first time that I can remember in my adult life that there is not the prospect of ever greater future consumption by almost everyone. Kids with Wii's, PSP3, Nintendo's. And not just one; THEY HAVE ALL 3. Kids with fucking 2 cell phones. WTF?

For the love of Christ, almost everyone I know has 2 or more homes. And they have 4 cars, although there are only 2 driving adults in the household. They have so many gadgets they can barely learn all the functionality of what they just got, before they buy another. Kids can't talk normally anymore. They send mindless disembodied text messages to other mindless zombies who don't give a fuck.

The consumerist fueled nightmare we've known for over 25 years is ending. Whatever you want, whenever you want it (via debt) has turned us into monsters. It makes our kids into monsters. I see kids everyday who are unable to communicate with anyone, especially their parents, except in terms of what they want bought for them. And I see parents who are unable to do anything but oblige. Love via Best Buy.

Again, Mark My Words: This is ending. The greatest financial collapse of all time may actually have some positive side-effects: Parents who start actually raising their kids. Kids who actually pull their heads out of their BFF asses.

Get started today: Throw your kids Wii in the shitter, stop buying cell phones every 2 months, disable text messaging, and stop fulfilling your life via retail (sorry Dunc).

OK, on to the Dominant Economic Theme of the Next 10 Years: Worldwide Stagflation.

It's pretty clear that firing up the US dollar printing presses has done the obvious, devalued our curreny to within spitting distance of the peso. So inflation will only punish us, right? No.

EMERGING MARKETS REPORT

Rising inflation poses threat to emerging markets

China, India, Turkey hardest hit; Brazil, a top performer, fights back

By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch

Last update: 6:22 p.m. EDT June 12, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Inflation may present a rising threat for economies worldwide, but emerging markets have been particularly hard hit.

China, India and South Africa are facing growing challenges, while only a handful of countries, such as Brazil, have been somewhat successful at containing surging prices.
Fueled by skyrocketing food and energy prices, inflation is steadily rising around the world, threatening to undermine the big economic gains emerging markets have made in recent years.

"This is a dangerous time for these central banks," said David Riedel, president of Riedel Research Group. "The bout of inflation at this stage of growth is very serious."

In recent days, many central banks, including those in South Africa, Brazil, India, Russia, China and Vietnam, have tightened monetary policy in an attempt to control rising inflation.

The South African Reserve Bank raised its key interest rate Thursday by 50 basis points to 12%, warning that the inflation outlook "remains bleak in an environment of sustained increases in international oil and food prices." South Africa is struggling with double-digit inflation.

On Wednesday, India delivered an emergency rate increase, the first since March 2007, saying it was "urgent" to fight inflation. India's wholesale price index recently soared to its highest level in nearly four years.

Earlier this week, Chinese shares fell sharply after the People's Bank of China raised banks' reserve requirement ratios for the fifth time this year.

Elsewhere in Asia, Vietnam, which is struggling with 25% inflation, raised rates and adjusted its official exchange rate downward in an effort to thwart currency speculation on Tuesday. Vietnamese equities are the worst performers in global emerging markets this year. Investors have sold local shares on concerns about soaring inflation.

Why is inflation rising?

High inflation, and in some cases hyperinflation, battered emerging markets in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia in the 1990s. Since then, inflation has been steadily declining until a few months ago, when energy and food prices started breaking record, pushing inflation higher and higher in the developing world.

Food makes up a much bigger part of the inflation basket, and disposable-income spending in emerging markets than it does in developed countries. For example, food accounts for more than 30% in Argentina, Malaysia, Russia, China, India and the Philippines.

"This food issue comes up again and again and again," said Jack Dzierwa, global strategist and co-manager of the Global MegaTrends Fund Dzierwa believes that rising inflation is the biggest problem currently facing emerging markets, and that higher food prices are largely to blame for that rise.

The other major contributor to inflation is the price of energy. The industrialization of fast-growing emerging markets requires tremendous amounts of energy resources, such as oil, natural gas and coal.

Another cause of inflation "is that a period of relatively loose interest rates in the developed world has resulted in a weak U.S. dollar," said Nicholas Field, London-based fund manager for global emerging market equities at Schroder Investment Management.
Weakness in the dollar has boosted the price of dollar-denominated commodities like oil.

Most vulnerable to an inflation hit are major food and fuel importers, such as China and India, strategists said. China's consumer-price index, a key measure of inflation, hit 7.7% in May, down slightly from 8.5% in April, but still fairly high.

"The three things that China needs to worry about this year are inflation, inflation and inflation," Riedel said. "It is such a concern for an economy during this phase of its growth. The markets are right to be selling off."

The Shanghai Composite benchmark stock index has tumbled 44% this year, making it the second worst performer in the emerging markets universe after Vietnam, whose VN index has declined 60%. Indian equities have also sold off this year, with the Sensex index down 25%.

Dzierwa said that there is some correlation between the performance of emerging markets and their inflation problems. For example, Brazil has been very aggressive in fighting inflation with interest-rate hikes, and the Bovespa stock index is among the best performers in the world with a year-to-date gain of 5%.

"Markets like Brazil, which is less dependent on imported food and fuel," Riedel said. "In Brazil, the central bank is being praised for being proactive in raising rates."

In Turkey, an oil importer, consumer prices rose 10.7% year-on-year in May and producer prices rose by 16.5% in the same period. Istanbul's IMKB-100 stock index is down 31%.
Russia, which boasts rich energy resources, but is a food importer, is struggling with 15% inflation, the highest among the BRIC countries. Moscow's RTS index is up only 3% year-to-date.

"Russia would have been a much better performer had it not been for this high level of inflation," Dzierwa said.

South Africa, whose stock market is dominated by resource stocks, is the best-performing stock market. The All-Share index is up 7%. Among U.S.-listed South African stocks are Sasol, Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold Mining and DRDGold.

One way for U.S. investors into the South African markets is via the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund.

Policy responses

"What we have is a period where inflation around the world was under control, and instead of coming down, it is now starting to go up in the majority of countries around the world, not just emerging [markets]," said Field of Schroder Investment Management.
How serious of a problem inflation becomes depends on the response of central banks and governments, he said.

Central banks in many emerging markets are not independent and tend to be subject to political pressure. In Argentina, for example, the government is widely believed to be manipulating inflation numbers. The official inflation rate is 9% while most private estimates put it at around 24%.

Many countries adopt short-term measures -- such as price controls, subsidies, and export bans on foods - that instead of mitigating inflation only exacerbate it.

In Egypt, where the government heavily subsidizes food and fuel, inflation surged to 20% in May. Rising food prices have stirred riots in the country in recent weeks.

One way to fight inflation is to raise interest rates, though that tends to slow down growth, a dilemma that many central banks are facing. Another inflation-fighting tool is currency appreciation. Many emerging markets - including China and Russia - control their currencies and have shunned away from letting them appreciate in order to sustain export-driven growth.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Qatar, Oman and Bahrain all peg their currencies to the dollar, but despite rising inflationary pressures the countries have opted not to drop their pegs or revalue their currencies.

End of StoryPolya Lesova is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

A lot of these economies rely on cheap currencies to drive exports, and they are quite used to a strong dollar regime to get 'er done. But the US is no longer going to be the importing consumerist-fueled nightmare it's been for the past 30-40 years, and these countries will have to adjust to this painful reality as much as we will.

And I guess going back to the Consumerist Fueled Nightmare That Is This Country, I found this over on Dunc's blog. It's the story of someone who started a store that sells "nothing anyone truly needs". Sound like a town you know of?

Downturn tough for Portland mom-and-pops

Slumping sales are forcing a Northwest 23rd Avenue merchant to close her doors
Thursday, June 12, 2008
ERIN HOOVER BARNETT
The Oregonian

Stacey Korn arrives just before 10 a.m. to unlock her shop on Northwest 23rd Avenue. She hoists orange molded plastic benches from the back and places them outside under the windows. Then she sets up her sidewalk sign:

"Shop 'Hello' -- nifty gifts for the whole family," it says. "Patronizing us is like flirting with a wealthy widow. You can't overdo it."

Korn needs her sense of humor now more than ever. As the economy slumps, sales at her Hello Portland store at 525 N.W. 23rd Ave. are half what they were soon after opening in late 2005. Her family of four went from living almost entirely off the shop's income to barely getting by and deciding to close in September.

"My friends at Irvington School don't know my kids qualify for free or reduced-price lunch," said Korn, 41.

Her boom-to-bust story is about the kind of shop that falters in a downturn. Hello Portland sells lots of stuff people want -- from $45 hip handbags to $25 "I might barf" baby onesies -- but nothing anyone truly needs. More than that, it's a story of a small merchant's struggles, of the people left behind when a local store fails.

"You hear people say, 'I love this. I can't live without this,' " Korn said. "And then they walk out the door."

Korn gets by with her trademark pluck.

She left a dysfunctional family at 16 to attend acting school in New York and then in Los Angeles. She turned to graphic design school and did secretarial work at advertising giant Ogilvy & Mather, learning computer skills thanks to client Microsoft.

She found a creative niche designing saucy greeting cards for Paper Moon. "Desperate Career Girl," said one. "Sexual harassment: She could dish it out, but could she take it?"

Her big break came when Reuters, the media and financial company, contracted with her in 2002 at $250 an hour to design Web sites. She was still nursing her second child, so her husband took a hotel room next door and paged Korn when Piper was hungry, handing the infant to Korn at a lower-floor restroom in Reuters' Manhattan building. Her bosses never knew she had a baby.

After two years, Korn opened the Hello store on Martha's Vineyard. Richard Singer, the primary developer and landlord on Northwest 23rd, lured Korn and her shop to Portland in 2005, beating out Bridgeport Village.

The shop -- opening at the height of Portland's housing market -- thrived. On Saturdays, the store pulled in about $2,000, helping pay the mortgage on their $550,000 Irvington home. Now the Saturday take is under $1,000, and midweek days are around $300. Last year, the family took home just $20,000. Scott Korn left the store to take a baking job late last year. Seven employees shrank to three.

Korn thinks concerns about finding parking around 23rd are worsening the impact of the downturn. And many of those who do come in just play -- picking up Japanese vinyl toys despite signs saying not to.

"It's like amusement," Korn said with a sigh. "So maybe it's my fault. Maybe my business plan is too amusing."

Extra effort

Sometimes she's direct. When a customer asked if she could buy the shop's melamine plates on the Internet, Korn told her, "Yeah, you could. But I'm here selling these so that I can feed my kids."

Reinforcing that connection is crucial for mom-and-pop businesses, especially now.

"Everyone is just kind of holding their breath to see what's going to happen," said Robyn Shanti, coordinator of the Sustainable Business Network, whose membership includes 360 locally owned Portland businesses. "People also realize if they don't patronize those businesses, they're not going to be around. And if they're not around, we'll lose the whole quality of life in our neighborhoods."

Korn is doing what she can. She tries making customers comfortable, fading out alternative rock music and fading in her "Old people just walked in" mix of Billie Holiday and Glenn Miller when seniors step in.

She puts a sale table outside on warm days. She uses cash to buy merchandise, avoiding additional debt. She rarely gives out even basic handle bags -- "Can you put this in the bag you have?" she asks -- saving 35 cents a pop. And she's gotten her kids involved, saving on child care.

On a sunny spring weekend, Piper, 6, and a friend sat outside selling $1 buttons they made, quickly pulling in $58.

Looking for work

Sometimes stress gets the better of Korn. A week ago, she parked her car just over the line into the valet zone for the restaurant next door. The restaurant had it towed. The cost: $210. "What am I going to sell on Craigslist to pay that ticket?" she said, sobbing. (She sold her car-top storage container.)

Kind comments help. Leslie Hildula comes for offbeat party favors and invitations. "It has this kind of inner-child enthusiasm for life," Hildula said of the shop.

But as the Korn family prepares to take on a foster child in need of emergency placement, Korn must be pragmatic. She hopes to find a stable job in graphic design or another creative field.

On Tuesday, Scott Korn arrived at the shop at 5 p.m. to pick up the children.

"Bye, cutie," he said to his wife as he headed out, Piper and Skyler, 10, ahead of him.

"Bye, sweetie," she said.

Then he remembered to ask: Is she coming home to tuck in the kids before returning to clean the store? She let go of her cleaning crew.

No, she told him. An employee's coming to help her scrub the floors.

"It'll be a party," Korn said.

Erin Hoover Barnett: 503-294-5011; ehbarnett@news.oregonian.com

I'll say it again: I know MANY, MANY people in this town going through this EXACT same scenario. In fact, it's hard to think of anyone I know who isn't going through this, on some level.

This Oregonian piece epitomizes Bend perfectly: A flood of immigrant noobs who thought they'd get here & run this shithole in 6 months. So they started, sight unseen, reserach undone, a convenience store in NWX, an upscale cooking supply store in a space where the previous cooking supply store failed, a "quirky" kids clothing store because they've carved up the kids clothing market just a little bit better than the last guy, a restaurant where the previous 3 restaurants failed, a bookstore because you "do what you love and the money will follow", an art gallery where they supply an eclectic mix of blah, blah, blah and so on.

Bend remains the all-time greatest equity-sink of all time, and will just become more so in the coming decades. Bend, like San Fran, is going down catastrophically, because both places are built on excessive consumerism. Without credit, both will die. Bend will undoubtedly die faster, but both will inexorably DIE. Without credit they wouldn't look anything like they do today.

Nicholson describes a woman in As Good As It Gets, “I start with a man and take away all reason and accountability.”

Bend is a woman. It is a town that lacks reason and has been held unaccountable for so long, it is unable to function otherwise. Where would we be without credit? Where would we be without a rampant influx of Cali-fueled 401K ploppers? How would they have gotten here without credit? What happens to this cycle now that the credit-fueled game of musical chairs is over?

You're going to see many parts of California, Florida and other Bubble-fueled nightmares implode, but none are larger, or have credit as a more intrinsic part of their economy than The Bay area. The Bay is the issuers of the lottery tickets, and has played the game better than anywhere to positive effect. And there is substantial wealth there because of it.

But the Game is over, and the largest participants will suffer the most. The United States will suffer on the largest macro sense. California will suffer the most on a statewide basis. And LA will suffer. But San Fran will suffer the most & literally be a city transformed by this event.

But it will take a long time for that frog to boil.

120 comments:

Anonymous said...

SF will not suffer that much. I live there and companies are doing VERY well. It's a whole different sort of place. The company I work for has seen it's US market shrink but it's European and Middle Eastern markets explode. We're global.

Anonymous said...

I close my eyes and all I see is the 'pussy' finger banging his hole, and licking his fingers, and typing on the keyboard.

This is Bend. Noobs here are different. Man-Twats are a dime a dozen in the BayAhrea (SF). Many came to Bend, Bend is a little SF. Thus the pilgrimage for so many to 'Burning-Man' where one can finger bang his hole in 'public', and not even get a glance.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sorry about the late post gents. System upgrade that seemed to spawn a million modal dialog boxes & would not progress without me sitting & clicking every one. Yarg.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I have to admit, I was pretty shocked to see that 3,105sf Skeeze shitter come in below $250K.

That's a big-ass house. Under $250K. This shit is getting desperate. And breaching $100sf only happened a few months ago.

And you can see on BendBB that other STD shitters (Eagles Landing, Forum Meadows) are coming in at the low $100's/sf.

Anonymous said...

Bright Millwork, the largest employer in Central Oregon. Reports that this is the worst recession they have seen in 40 years.

Already with 50% of folks laid off, only a few jobs in Madras survive, all of Bend, Mothballed.

Retirees, soon will be broke. Kids feed off servicing retirees with no income. Tourism will slack over the coming months.

Already seeing 'nice' bungalows near Newport Market with an 'ask' of $250k, which means they'll take $200k or less.

$160k for a home anywhere inside of inner Bend, and $100k for a siberian crap shack will be yours by this winter.

Will the bank loan? Are you out of your fucking mind.

There are no jobs.

Got the mail today, that City of Bend is now going to charge for water based on 'use', so said to cover the cost of infrastructure, a little late, Boss-Hogg got his built on the backs of the little people, now the actual cost will be passed to the little people.

Bend moves on, City-Hall will start fucking citizens every way they can for nickels.

More homes in SF are now sold by banks, than by individuals. In Bend more homes are going to the banks, than the banks can dump. Bank inventory of crap-shacks in Bend, getting very close to federal bail-out request.

Why would a bank loan you money for a nice little home near drake-park, when they're sitting on 100's of siberian-crap shacks?? The good bankers will be those that can UNLOAD the STD's on the NOOB's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I live there and companies are doing VERY well. It's a whole different sort of place.

Bend is also different.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In Bend more homes are going to the banks, than the banks can dump.

For a limited time, you TOO can have Patty Moss as your Realtor! Simply STOP making payments!

Don't pay... WALK AWAY!

Anonymous said...

I was out at Brasada ranch yesterday, only six full time residents out there. Jeld wen is taking a bath on that place big time.

Anonymous said...

For over 1-1/2 year here I have been documenting the building boom wage here in Bend,

2004 I saw almost everyone get $60/hr at NXX, then $45, then $30, last year $15/hr, this winter it hit min-wage at below $5/hr under-table.

Now almost all the 'contractors' I know that didn't get the hell out of here, are doing 'landscape' 7 days a week to pay 'rent'. ( The house was lost last year, the toys the year before )

Why do people stay, I can say that this myth that Bend is special is quite insane in its ability to get people to pay.

This spring the trend I saw is the girlfriends of the builders I know are walking from their lovers, getting tired of weenies, and frozen food.

So here they are 25-40 stuck in Bend, doing landscape NO pussy, remember Bend is all 'cougars' looking for money, Bend is NOT the place for easy pussy, its NOT SF where girls like to fuck, and its hard to find a straight man.

Broke, no pussy, and stuck in Bend. But they stay! Stay for what?? They say they like it here.

My honest opinion, is that this is NO different than the implosion of DOT-CON back in 2001, many of these folks had no biz doing web work, but once it was gone, they hung at the coffee shops and waited, and waited for the cell to ring.

I see personally many medicore builders in Bend, spoiled by 2002->2004 where they could pull $60/hr because of demand. They now have it in their mind they're builders, ... A real builder goes to where the work is, they must stay busy, many of the NOOB builders I know, never really like to work, so they stay in Bend.

How long will Oregon un-employment keep paying?? Keep extending??

It's all just like DOT-CON, how long did that take?? Most of those people I know drifter into motorcycle or bike shop repair over the past 8 years.

Most of the builders are already moving over to landscaping, hell with the mexicans GONE, its natural, and the old people aren't going to do the work.

This is the new Bend.

Crime will increase, the average auto contains over $100 of fuel, just waiting to be siphoned.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bright Millwork, the largest employer in Central Oregon.

I almost posted this Bull piece. Ahhh, what the hell:

Layoffs at Bright Wood open doors some hadn’t considered

By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin

MADRAS — They all worked in Bright Wood’s Plant 13.

Toni Martinez, 52, ticketed and packaged window and door parts. Marie Hogge, 43, graded and looked for defects. John Spalinger, 37, made sure the dimensions were correct and oversaw the operation line.

And this summer, as many adults plan a summer vacation, these three laid-off employees will head back to school, in search of careers after Bright Wood.

“Ideally, in two years I’ll be working and glad I did this,” Martinez said. “It means a lot to be 52 and have to change your whole life.”

Since February, Bright Wood Corp., the Madras-based company that makes door frames, window casings and other wood components, has laid off about 220 workers from Madras.

After the layoffs, the Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council requested a national emergency grant for $900,000 to specifically help laid off Bright Wood employees.

As COIC waits to hear back on the status of its grant request, Hogge, Spalinger and Martinez are taking advantage of federal retraining benefits through the Trade Act program. It helps those who lost jobs due to work sent overseas or from competition from imported products.

For some, it can provide up to $20,000 for a two-year retraining program.

By next winter, Martinez pictures herself working at Opal Day Spa in Madras after obtaining a degree from Phagans’ Central Oregon Beauty College. Both Martinez and Spalinger are headed to Central Oregon Community College, Martinez to become a medical technician and Spalinger to learn computer-assisted drafting.

Last year was the first time in Bright Wood’s 47-year history it had a large-scale layoff. Around 140 employees were let go that time.

The company, which still has plants in Redmond and Bend, remains Central Oregon’s third-largest employer, with 1,057 workers, behind St. Charles and Les Schwab Tire Centers, according to Economic Development for Central Oregon.

“It’s as difficult of a year that I’ve had in 25 years in the business,” said Bright Wood President Dallas Stovall.

“Housing prices are still a ways away from rebounding; it’s tough. We’re taking our hits, trust me,” Stovall said.

Toni Martinez

When the boss pulled Martinez into his office, it was March 3. She had been working at Bright Wood for nearly a decade and had been reassured earlier in the year that she wouldn’t be laid off. Forty-five minutes into the day, she was told to get her stuff.

“My boss called me in (to his office) and said, your name came up and so we decided to let you go,” Martinez said.

She went home, had a cup of coffee and headed to the employment office.

Martinez was worried. Before spending a decade of her life working at Bright Wood, she had struggled.

“My biggest fear is being poor like I was before Bright Wood, because I was really poor,” she said.

Then a single mom raising two children, Martinez worked in a grocery store, and some weeks, the store could not give her 40 hours.

“I had children at home, and there were times that I had to decide if they were going to eat or if I was going to eat,” she said.

Now, she owns her own house and her own car, paid for with the $12 per hour she earned at Bright Wood.

If she had to return to a minimum-wage job, she would have to let the house and the car go and it would feel like a waste of years of hard work.

Sitting at the COIC office in Madras, Martinez and her employment counselor scoured the Internet for jobs. Since Martinez’s home and all of her family are in Madras, relocating wasn’t really an option.

She quickly found that the job market in Madras didn’t have much to offer her. Most of the jobs were minimum wage and offered less than 40 hours per week, or they were looking for experience she didn’t have.

Although unemployment rates in Central Oregon for all three counties fell slightly because of seasonal hiring, Jefferson County’s unemployment rate for April was the highest it’s been since 1986, and the county was the only one of the three to lose jobs in 2007, according to Steve Williams, a regional economist with the Oregon Employment Department.

Williams said the hardest-hit sectors were manufacturing and wood products, the category under which Bright Wood falls.

“That’s why I opted to go back to school as part of the Trade Act,” Martinez said. “That’s what I needed to do.”

Marie Hogge

Marie Hogge had been at Bright Wood for nine years. She was the type of employee that would work extra hours around the holidays.

“I was there a lot of hours, and I didn’t miss much work,” she said.

“I was standing there ... and I said, ‘You’re laying me off, aren’t you?’” Hogge said. “And I said, ‘Why me?’”

Her foremost concern: Where could she possibly make the same amount of money, about $12 per hour, without having to relocate?

“I called my girlfriend Tammy, and she said, ‘Go back to school and get your nail license; we need someone to do nails at the spa,’” Hogge said.

“I thought, I don’t know. I didn’t think I could make the same amount, but she talked about how much they are turning people away.”

It helped that Hogge’s first love is cosmetology. Before working at Bright Wood, she worked in a salon, cutting hair. She’s looking forward to wearing nice clothes to work, to returning home without sawdust all over her and to having conversations with her future clients.

On Tuesday morning, Hogge sat in a COIC office while receiving help from her employment counselor, Keely Jefferies, who is working with about 35 laid-off Bright Wood employees. She estimated about 60 are considering retraining options.

Jefferies said some are not taking advantage of the Trade Act program because either they don’t know about it or because they never considered going back to school.

“When a person comes in, and we take them through the enrollment process, they often come from a mind-set where retraining and education wasn’t a possibility; they went straight to work,” Jefferies said.

“We see a lot of that with Bright Wood employees; they just haven’t thought of that potential.”

So, Jefferies asks: What did you do at Bright Wood?

Often they say, “I was a grader” or “I packaged.”

Then she asks, “So on those days that you didn’t love your job, what did you want to be?”

“And it gets them rolling and thinking,” she said. “And I say, ‘Go out into the world and see what others are doing, and if it looks fun. …’ The thing about the Trade Act is, it’s a one-shot deal. … If I don’t believe you’re ready, I’ll say, ‘Take a breath, look around and try to think: Would I like to do that?’”

John Spalinger

For Spalinger, who is a little nervous about returning to school for the first time in 15 years, being laid off was almost a relief.

He was burnt out from working at Bright Wood and could never afford to go back to school on his own, he said. After searching the classified ads and noticing a few ads looking for drafters, he remembered how much he loved drawing blueprints in high school.

Martinez said she’s getting used to the idea of it now, too. She’s refreshing her basic math skills and hopes there will be other older people in her medical technician classes.

And for Hogge, after she had some time to adjust to the change, she’s elated.

“I’m excited. I think getting laid off, honestly was the best thing that happened,” she said.

“My family and friends are happy. … People will have respect for me,” she said. “At Bright Wood it was just about getting the wood out.”

Lauren Dake can be reached at 419-8074 or at ldake@bendbulletin.com.


WTF? Paid for a house & car on $12/hr? Is that even remotely possible?

There is also a fairly interesting Madras plug by Lowes Commercial Property for WHY you should BUY in Madras (page 42 of the Cascade Business Buttbangers June 4, 2008 issue):

"ATTENTION Restaurant / Grill Owners

Have you noticed your slice of the pie getting smaller?
Are you frustrated by what what seems like a growing population yet competition grows faster?
Are you looking for a new location? Have you wanted to open a brew pub, grill or restaurant but can't find a location?

Stop beating your head against the wall in overcrowded markets, look to Central Oregon's growing city to the North, Madras. While the pond is smaller, you can be the fat fish in the pond.

The HArriman Building in downtown Madras has 1,000 - 3,500 sq ft available for pub, grill or restaurant."


There is quite a bit of throwing Bend under the bus in this ad.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And it is telling that Lehman recorded the FIRST LOSS in it's public trading history.

These investment banks WE are bailing out, are not your grampa's investment bank. They are as heavily leveraged as banks, if not more so. They have become proxy's for illiquid hedge funds, as they either own these securities or are on the hook for loaning money to them.

These things were NEVER meant to receive gov't bailout funds, and since the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, these companies have dramatically transformed into incredibly leveraged trading vehicles. And they became quite liberal in their swing-for-the-fences investment attitude when it became clear they had an implict gov't guarantee. It pays to take enormous risks when the downside is covered by taxpayers, as 90's S&L exec's did.

It should also tell you that these companies that didn't even flinch during The Great Depression are folding like grama on laundry day. This thing is still an iceberg that has not fully seen the light of day.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Get started today: Throw your kids Wii in the shitter, stop buying cell phones every 2 months, disable text messaging, and stop fulfilling your life via retail (sorry Dunc)."

Totally with you on this, Brother.

Except for books (and comics and any other reading).

Books are the exception.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And David Foster is done with May 08

Bend & Central Oregon Real Estate Market - Stats & Facts - 2008

In my discussion of the Bend Oregon real estate market for 2006 and again in 2007, I suggested that the market would likely continue to adjust and transition into a more "normal" market. As of the end of May 2008 the sluggish market is continuing to shake out, continues as a "buyer's market", and the market is still far from "normal". At this point it is impossible to say just how long this "normalization" will take, but not all the news is bad.

*
Sales prices of homes on lots stabilized somewhat in May. The average sales price YTD for homes on lots dropped from $371,695 last month to $370,742 in May. This is both 13% lower than May 2007, and 13% less than the end of 2007. However, the YTD median sales price of $300,000 in May is up a tick from last month at $299,450. The median is now 13% less than the first of the year, and 16% less than it was in May 2007 at $357,509. (Table)

*
Demand, as measured by sales, improved in March, remained somewhat stable in April and increased by 12% in May. There were 92 sold homes on lots in April, and 103 sales reported thus far for May. Though this increase in activity was encouraging, total sales for 2008 through May is still 41% lower than the first five months of 2007. (Chart Table)

*
After demand had dropped and the market started shifting to a "buyer's market" in the Spring and early Summer of 2006, supply or inventory levels started climbing and have remained relatively high since. Inventory peaked in 2007 in August and dropped each month through December. Since the first of the year the supply has increased each month as expected and increased 6%, from 1,410 homes on lots in April to 1,500 as of the end of May. (Table) The good news is that this is less than the 1,511 listings in May 2007. With demand and sales down this past winter, the bad news is that the 1,500 active listings of homes on lots now represents 14.9 months of inventory as compared to 13.7 months in April, based on the sales rate for the last 12 months (~101/mo.). The downward pressure on prices from supply exceeding demand continued with the median list price of homes on lots dropping from $375,500 in April to $374,700 in May. This is 5% less than the first of the year. The average list price ticked up a bit from $509,086 in April to $509,110 in May, which is down 2% since the first of the year.

*
Rural homes in Bend Oregon, on an acre or more, continue to be less affordable, and in less demand than homes on lots. Just 38 homes on acreage have sold thus far in 2008, which is 28% less than through May of 2007. With so few sales, trending is less statistically meaningful, but the YTD average sales price increased slightly from $568,415 in April to $570,832 in May, but is down 17% YOY and 21% YTD. The YTD median sale price through May was unchanged from April at $497,000, but this is down 17% YOY and 17% YTD. (Table) The number of active listings spiked 21% from 286 in April to 345 in May. This now represents 34 months of inventory based on the sales rate for the last 12 months (10.1/month), as compared to 27.2 months (10.5/month) as of April. With only 11 active listings for less than $350,000 as compared to 700 homes on lots, many buyers will likely continue to forgo their desire for "elbow room" and acreage to buy more house for the money in town.

*
The City of Bend published an updated proposed Urban Growth Boundary and UAR expansion plan in June of 2007. Most of the expansion was NE of the City giving priority to the City's Juniper Ridge project, which has drawn increasing criticism and a call to stop the project. School boundary issues with Redmond, transportation issues with ODOT, lack of community support for the Juniper Ridge concept, other issues and appeals will likely continue to delay the expansion for some time. More organized opposition to the project, such as Do Juniper Ridge Right has resulted in the City at least revisiting the issues, and reconsidering the current plans for expanding the UGB. Based on this strong opposition, it was recently announced that the City had severed the admittedly ill-conceived agreement with the original developers, but had to pay them around 2.5 million to get out of the agreement. The City also announced they hoped to have a revised UGB plan finished by June 2008, but it is still likely to be several years before any new land will be annexed into the City. What is ultimately decided will have a major impact on the future of the overall market.

*
In response to the national subprime mortgage problems, The Hope Now Alliance, a partnership between mortgage companies and nonprofit housing counselors, began a nationwide mail campaign in November to offer help to home owners who are having trouble meeting their mortgage payments. Changes have already been made in FHA lending guidelines to assist borrowers in trouble, and there is a movement afloat among some of the largest lenders to freeze the rate for 5 years on some of the "teaser rate" loans that are about to reset. Both FHA and conventional loan limits were increased for Deschutes County to $447,500 in March which should make financing a bit easier. If a borrower is having problems there are an increasing number of options available.

*
Bend was the second most "overvalued" housing market in the country after the first quarter of 2008 at 49.5% and $290,500, according to a Global Insight and National City Housing valuation analysis survey. Bend was ranked 25th and 45% overvalued in 2005, was in second place behind Naples FL in 2006 at 89.3%, and took over first place after the first quarter of 2007 at 78.7%. In the first quarter of 2008, 84% or 262 of the 317 metro areas studied showed price declines. 45 of the top 50 were in California, Florida and Michigan. In the first quarter 2008, only eight housing markets, down from a peak of 53 in 2006, were determined to still be "extremely overvalued" (more than 35%). 4 of the 8 were in Washington and two in Oregon, with Portland being the other area. Portland, where the median home price is $286,500, ranked No. 7 with 36.2 % of homes overvalued. Eugene, with a median home price of $228,500, ranked No. 11 at 32.8 %. Medford, with a median home price of $237,900, ranked No. 12 at 31.9 %. Salem, with a median home price of $199,575, ranked No. 16 with 28.9 %. The survey takes into account differences in population density, relative household income levels and historical valuations. However this report does not account for those who moved here with large amounts of equity, and other income streams that aren't dependent upon the local job market.

*
Bend continued to get national exposure in May when USA Today ran an article titled: Life on Vacation: Bend, Ore.: The great outdoors beckon in 'the new Boulder'.

Market Analysis & Crystal Ball - 2007

The May 2008 real estate statistics for Bend indicated a continuing overall sluggish market, but showed some positive trends and improvements.

In spite of continuous downward pressure on prices since late spring and early summer of 2006, the median sales price of homes on lots remained surprisingly stable through 2007. The median sales price at the end of 2006 was $352,000 and dropped just 2% to $345,000 by the end of 2007. However, by April of this year the median had dropped 13% to $299,900, but stabilized at $300,000 in May. While prices have softened, at least some of the 13% drop can be attributed to more expensive homes not selling because of lack of financing options.

Though sales of homes on lots for the year are 41% behind this time last year, sales were up by 12+% in May from April. It is the time of year for the number of sales to naturally increase, but it might also mean that prices have softened enough to encourage more buyers to return to the market. Also the recent increases in the maximum loan amount to $447,500 for both the FHA and conventional, conforming loans has made it possible for more buyers and more expensive homes to qualify for financing. This may also contribute to the average and median sales prices stabilizing or increasing, as more expensive homes may be purchased without resorting to jumbo loan programs, which have been both more difficult to obtain and have much higher interest rates than before the credit crisis.

Given the low sales rate over the last 12 months, the current number of active listings now represents 14.9 months of inventory of homes on lots and 34 months of homes on acreage, but there are less homes on lots on the market than this time last year which is a positive trend. Until sales rates increase and those excess inventories are absorbed, there will be continued downward pressure on prices. The question remains then, why not wait until the market "normalizes" and prices bottom out before you buy?

In spite of the downward pressure on prices and the lower average and median sales prices, the average and median list prices have not kept pace. As of the end of May the median list price of homes on lots was down just 4.8% from the first of the year to $374,700, and the average list price dropped 2.1% to $509,110. Some sellers are dropping their prices, but not all.

Some sellers cannot reduce their prices any lower as they are already priced at what they paid or what they owe. This has contributed to an increase in local short sales and bank foreclosures. The average Seller that *has* to sell will generally lower their list price to their breakeven price. If they can't sell at that breakeven price, then they can try to negotiate a short sale with their lender or failing that, allow the lender to foreclose. Meanwhile the Seller that does not have to sell, will often hold their price. This is also true of the Seller who has a relatively rare type of property, where there are few comparables. Prices of some properties and some neighborhoods will go down some more, but some have bottomed out, and even in a downward price trending market such as Bend is experiencing, there will be properties, and perhaps neighborhoods that will increase in price.

Some other statistics such as the Global Insight and National City Housing valuation analysis survey cited above suggests that though the Bend market is adjusting, that the market is still "overvalued" and prices are likely to fall. While this may be true, the fact is that the Bend market has also outperformed almost all areas in the Country on the way up, and resisted this nation wide slowdown. It also could suggest that people "value" living in Bend so much that they will always be willing to pay a bit more, and that the market will rebound more quickly than most.

So the answer to the question about waiting until prices bottom out is, it depends on the property and the circumstances and goals of the Buyer. Some "best value" properties may not go down in price, and if you want to buy those properties, you may find today's prices as low as they will be. And even if they do go down a bit more, you might not come out ahead by waiting.

Last month I described how rising interest rates could negate any advantage of waiting. I described a scenario where interest rates went up 1%, while the median sales price went down 10%, and the price paid would be the same whether you waited or bought today at the lower interest rate. Since then the median sales price has stayed the same, but long term interest rates have increased by .25% to .5%. This means that you would have come out ahead if you had bought the median priced property last month.

Supply is still exceeding demand, and it is still too early to see where the market will trend over the traditionally busier Summer selling season and the rest of the year. There is still a lot of evidence that the market has not bottomed out, but the May statistics may be suggesting that we may be approaching that point in the months to come.

Crystal Ball

Inventory is likely to continue to creep up, and there will be continued downward pressure on prices as long as supply exceeds demand. It seems that most sellers have let go of the "seller's market" mindset and accepted the reality of it being a "buyer's market". Many Sellers have already cut their list price as low as they can without bringing cash to the closing table, or negotiating a short sale. Pricing of new listings will be more realistic and competitive. Many Sellers will be very negotiable. Builders are continuing to cut back in production and in price-point of the few newly started projects. In the meantime they are continuing to offer buyer incentives and price reductions on existing inventory. All these changes will help in tempting buyers back into the market.

I tend to think that we will see increased sales in the next few months, and that the rates may exceed 2007 levels as the excess supply is purged. Some buyers will decide that prices have come down enough. The higher conventional and FHA loan limits that are temporary through the end of the year, and still relatively low interest rates will motivate some to buy now rather than risk higher interest rates and fewer homes to pick from. Some will take advantage of their negotiation leverage now while they have it, and some will continue to wait and hope for lower prices. However there is a build-up of buyers that will eventually move back into the market, and when that happens the market could adjust more quickly. What is not clear is what the ripple effects from the national economy and trends will be on the Bend market. Though the Bend market has shown some resistance to national trends in the past, there are simply too many variables to predict at this point. But I think it is safe to say that the Bend market is poised to rebound more quickly than most places in the Country, and has a better long term future.

Buying and Selling in 2008

Should you buy or sell? In this dynamic and complicated market, it is hard to make general recommendations. I would suggest that in every crisis there is both danger and opportunities. Therefore my advice again this month...it all depends on your particular situation.

"Sellers are facing a price war and a beauty contest, and they need to win both" to sell in this market. Unless you need to sell in this highly competitive "buyer's market", then you might want to wait it out. If you need to sell then you will need to price and position the property very aggressively from the start. While the market adjusts, those properties that have the best location, the best "curb appeal", the best condition, and the best value for the price range and neighborhood are the ones that are most likely to sell. Good planning, marketing and positioning will be critical. In some cases there will be only two solutions for sellers - time or price.

Should you buy? It is likely that buyers will never have a better selection and perhaps find more motivated sellers over the next few months. While supply exceeds demand, there will be downward pressure on prices, but after the excess supply is absorbed prices will go up again. How long that will take is impossible to say, but the Bend market has consistently resisted and out performed national trends and the long term potential for growth and price appreciation is hard to match. In some cases property prices have already bottomed out and become "bargains". Instead of guessing when prices might bottom out, and risk losing the "perfect" home, higher interest rates and the loss of negotiation leverage, it could be a good time to buy, especially if you are thinking longer term and plan on living in a home from 3 to 5 years or more. If price is your most important criteria, and you are willing to compromise on location, condition, features etc, then waiting for even lower prices may be your best strategy. You might also consider trying to buy one of the short sale properties or bank repossessions, but there are other risks associated with these. Once again, it all depends on your particular situation, but if you do plan on eventually buying, you should be getting your ducks lined up and ready to act. Among other things, this means getting pre-approved for your financing, and keeping yourself educated about the market so when the right house comes along at the right price, you will be ready to act.

Should you buy or sell? As I have said before, be careful about believing everything you read or hear. National trends do not necessarily apply to Bend, to a particular neighborhood or property. Real estate is local. You need to do your homework and plan well. With so many variables in play in today's real estate market, the need to educate yourself has never been higher. There is both danger and opportunity in today's market, and a good, long time realtor that has experienced both up and down markets before will be invaluable in helping you make good decisions.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think it should be reiterated that almost everything about the Bend market is more positively portrayed than reality:

DARK MATTER abounds. Rarely do Realtors or builders put ALL their inventory on MLS. It is usually a small fraction. FSBO's are everywhere. The Dark Matter underlying the Bend res market is at least as large as the visible matter.

Builders are still amenity-izing their sales with "add ons": worthless crap they give you to buy a house. ANYTHING that artificially inflates the SOLD PRICE is done. Free cars, SUV's, covering closing costs & points. It's all fair game to keep the INVENTORY AGGREGATE VALUE solvent for their banks.

The Bend res market is a giant game of Three-card Monte

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Books are the exception.

Books are my retail weakness. And I don't consider books a "weakness". I rationalize by telling myself they are for work... and they are. I guess.

I love books, as my office attests.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm sorry, what part of David Foster is news, and isn't just rehash?

Look! The cup is still a quarter full! Good news. (Bad news, the cup is 3/4th empty.)

I suppose he might make a good 'capitulation' point; when he finally turns negative, we've hit bottom.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I was out at Brasada ranch yesterday, only six full time residents out there.

A perfect example of If You Build It, They Will Come. Even if it is inconvenient as hell, over-priced, and out in the scrub.

I don't think it'll bring Jeld-Wen down, but their little timeshare & development gigs are going to start to hurt Dick Wendt & Co. They might actually get down to their last billion dollars, poor bastards.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm sure many of you read the fairly pathetic, "An alliance formed in the name of luxury". It's available free, so I won't reproduce it here. Best line:

Since its first get-together in October, the group has yet to directly produce a sale based on information shared in its meetings, said Bielefeld, who’s affiliated with Meridian Realty in Bend. Bielefeld also builds luxury homes with her husband, Jeff Garren, through their company, JM Garren Inc.

Much sound & fury signifying nothing.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

when he finally turns negative, we've hit bottom.

Well, as marge pointed out, David is getting his ass handed to him in this thing. One property sold in a year & a half, and he's cleaning carpets down in LaPine to make ends meet.

I have a feeling that David & many others won't be in the business when it's time to buy.

And Yes... his posts lack any real substantive change & imagination.

He & I are a lot alike.

Duncan McGeary said...

"He & I are a lot alike."

Not nearly!

Besides...you amuse me.

Anonymous said...

Well, as marge pointed out, David is getting his ass handed to him in this thing. One property sold in a year & a half, and he's cleaning carpets down in LaPine to make ends meet.

*

Dude, Marge was talking about Doug, not David. They say memory is the second thing to go with age.

Anonymous said...

One factor so often omitted from the pundits is that, in the recent past, much of home activity and appreciation was caused by speculators and people trying to get rich from their houses. Bend was "different" also because of the rumor, that I have never seen substantiated but was repeated to me by a real estate agent as recently as late last year, that Donald Trump allegedly said that Bend was the place that he would buy as an investment. I also heard that apparent urban legend repeated to me by people livng in Jackson County.

Will that mindset return? Or will future prices be determined by people who buy a house primarily to live in it? It makes a big difference.

Anonymous said...

What I want to know, is where did all the Bend metrosexual males come from? Is that an urban trend that migrated here that I just missed out on?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

They say memory is the second thing to go with age.

What? Where? Who is that? Dude, I have to drive to the store at 12mph with my blinker on the whole time, so I can stand in the Express Checkout lane with 600 items, checking the price on every single item & using multiple coupons illegally, and tell the checker about what I did over Christmas 1957, and about all my grandkids.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I forgot! I have to pay for the entire motherfucker with nickels.

Note to Old People:

If you have been immobile for more than 2 seconds, YOU ARE IN THE FUCKING WAY! MOVE YOU STUPID OLD FUCK STICKS! GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY WAY!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

FHA In Jeopardy?
Posted by: Eric Ames @ 8:36 AM


With all the talk coming from politicians about how they plan to use the FHA to save the housing market and the economy, it may be a shocker to know that the FHA is struggling mightily right now. The FHA had to withdraw $4.6 billion from its $21 billion capital reserve fund in May to cover losses, according to the New York Times.

“Let me repeat: F.H.A. is solvent,” FHA commissioner Brian Montgomery said Monday in a speech at the National Press Club, according to the New York Times. “However, no insurance company can sustain that amount of additional costs year after year and still survive. Unless we take action to mitigate these losses, F.H.A. will soon either have to shut down or rely on appropriations to operate.”

Something has to change or else the FHA will soon be under water. This is a bit scary to think about because right now, FHA loans make up a good portion of the mortgage market, and an even larger portion in many low income areas. If the FHA were shut down, the real estate market would be in for a huge blow. In reality, though, it is unlikely the FHA will actually shut down even if they become insolvent. Instead, the government would float them the money they needed to continue operations until such a time as they could stand on their own two feet again. As you probably guessed that means taxpayers would ultimately be subsidizing the FHA.

There is one glaring reason why the FHA is struggling right now, according to Montgomery. He blames the seller financed down payment program, otherwise known as down payment assistance. In this program the seller donates the required down payment (typically 3 percent) to a non-profit corporation which then gives the money (minus a fee, of course) to the buyer, who uses it as the necessary down payment. Sound a little sketchy to you? I can assure you I feel the exact same way. Nonetheless, this program has been around for years--and it has been a problem for years as well. 60 percent of the FHA losses can be directly attributed to this program, according to the New York Times, even though these loans only make up around 35 percent of the FHA’s portfolio.

The FHA has been trying to get rid of this program for years, but has met strong resistance and been unsuccessful. Backers of the program say it provides much-needed assistance to low income and minority families who would otherwise be unable to buy homes, according to the New York Times. Naturally, the FHA is continuing its fight against the program, but based on their past experience, it doesn’t appear they are likely to be successful.

“If there’s any justice in this country, they will fail yet again,” Scott Syphax, president of Nehemiah Corporation of America, which provides such loans, said in the New York Times. Wow, you’ve got to love that mentality--if there is any justice in America, we should continue putting people in houses they can’t afford and potentially break the FHA, which would cost taxpayers billions upon billions of dollars. Is it just me or is this guy’s idea of “justice” a little skewed?

Ultimately, whether the down payment assistance programs stay or go, the housing market will likely suffer. If they stay, the FHA will probably need taxpayer support; if they go, then we are losing 35 percent of the FHA loans out there which means we would have even fewer people buying homes. In my mind, though, the right way to go is to ban these programs. The statistics show beyond a doubt that these loans result in an extremely high default rate (about 3 times the FHA norm) and it is not fair to pass this burden on to taxpayers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Great Seduction
By DAVID BROOKS

The people who created this country built a moral structure around money. The Puritan legacy inhibited luxury and self-indulgence. Benjamin Franklin spread a practical gospel that emphasized hard work, temperance and frugality. Millions of parents, preachers, newspaper editors and teachers expounded the message. The result was quite remarkable.

The United States has been an affluent nation since its founding. But the country was, by and large, not corrupted by wealth. For centuries, it remained industrious, ambitious and frugal.

Over the past 30 years, much of that has been shredded. The social norms and institutions that encouraged frugality and spending what you earn have been undermined. The institutions that encourage debt and living for the moment have been strengthened. The country’s moral guardians are forever looking for decadence out of Hollywood and reality TV. But the most rampant decadence today is financial decadence, the trampling of decent norms about how to use and harness money.

Sixty-two scholars have signed on to a report by the Institute for American Values and other think tanks called, “For a New Thrift: Confronting the Debt Culture,” examining the results of all this. This may be damning with faint praise, but it’s one of the most important think-tank reports you’ll read this year.

The deterioration of financial mores has meant two things. First, it’s meant an explosion of debt that inhibits social mobility and ruins lives. Between 1989 and 2001, credit-card debt nearly tripled, soaring from $238 billion to $692 billion. By last year, it was up to $937 billion, the report said.

Second, the transformation has led to a stark financial polarization. On the one hand, there is what the report calls the investor class. It has tax-deferred savings plans, as well as an army of financial advisers. On the other hand, there is the lottery class, people with little access to 401(k)’s or financial planning but plenty of access to payday lenders, credit cards and lottery agents.

The loosening of financial inhibition has meant more options for the well-educated but more temptation and chaos for the most vulnerable. Social norms, the invisible threads that guide behavior, have deteriorated. Over the past years, Americans have been more socially conscious about protecting the environment and inhaling tobacco. They have become less socially conscious about money and debt.

The agents of destruction are many. State governments have played a role. They aggressively hawk their lottery products, which some people call a tax on stupidity. Twenty percent of Americans are frequent players, spending about $60 billion a year. The spending is starkly regressive. A household with income under $13,000 spends, on average, $645 a year on lottery tickets, about 9 percent of all income. Aside from the financial toll, the moral toll is comprehensive. Here is the government, the guardian of order, telling people that they don’t have to work to build for the future. They can strike it rich for nothing.

Payday lenders have also played a role. They seductively offer fast cash — at absurd interest rates — to 15 million people every month.

Credit card companies have played a role. Instead of targeting the financially astute, who pay off their debts, they’ve found that they can make money off the young and vulnerable. Fifty-six percent of students in their final year of college carry four or more credit cards.

Congress and the White House have played a role. The nation’s leaders have always had an incentive to shove costs for current promises onto the backs of future generations. It’s only now become respectable to do so.

Wall Street has played a role. Bill Gates built a socially useful product to make his fortune. But what message do the compensation packages that hedge fund managers get send across the country?

The list could go on. But the report, which is nicely summarized by Barbara Dafoe Whitehead in The American Interest (available free online), also has some recommendations. First, raise public consciousness about debt the way the anti-smoking activists did with their campaign. Second, create institutions that encourage thrift.

Foundations and churches could issue short-term loans to cut into the payday lenders’ business. Public and private programs could give the poor and middle class access to financial planners. Usury laws could be enforced and strengthened. Colleges could reduce credit card advertising on campus. KidSave accounts would encourage savings from a young age. The tax code should tax consumption, not income, and in the meantime, it should do more to encourage savings up and down the income ladder.

There are dozens of things that could be done. But the most important is to shift values. Franklin made it prestigious to embrace certain bourgeois virtues. Now it’s socially acceptable to undermine those virtues. It’s considered normal to play the debt game and imagine that decisions made today will have no consequences for the future.

Marge said...

I had talked about Doug Farmer cleaning carpets.
David Foster is not in any better shape. He sold 3 houses last for a grand income of near 30k, less expenses. So far he is in the same boat as me and has not sold anything this year.
I am lucky and have been frugal for years so the slump won't take me down. I am debt free and own NOT owe my house and toys. If I can't pay cash I refuse to buy.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What I want to know, is where did all the Bend metrosexual males come from? Is that an urban trend that migrated here that I just missed out on?

*

This is a question that MEE have been dwelling on over a year, I think it started with Brooks a well established metro-sexual himself from cali, he brought in a boatload in the 70's. Hell BendBB is the king of metro-sexuals right here in blogs-ville-bend.

Too much is know about the bend-cougar, the MILF on the prowl, having taken her builder hubby to the cleaner those days are over.

Bend's metro-sexual men, don't want cougars, and cougars want rich men. Then you have Bend's un-employed.

There's a lot of talk about SF on this blog. I think that has lot to do with our metro-sexuals. A straight woman can't find a man in SF, and Bend is largely MS-ManTwats ( metro-sexual man twats ), and cougars.

The kids in Bend are good until 24, by then they move on, or the girls on their second divorce go cougar, the guys move on.

I think the metro-sexual thing goes with the intensive road-biking in Bend, there is something about guys obsessed with themselves, and the tight pushed in nuts on a road bike, and shaving all their body hair.

Bend is a metro-sexual king's play ground, and not enough is written.

Just a few years ago Bend was board-dudes, ski-bums, ... those days are over, when I think of blue-hair cougars, and blue-haired metro-sexual men, I think of Palm Springs.

Given the retiree's, and the fact that this is what Bend really is a snow-bird place for those who can retire.

The real question is do metro-sexual ( males ) and cougars cross path? I don't think so, the cougars can be found at Merenda, Martini Bar, or next to Marz. The Metro-Sexual men can be found at Newport market buying wine for their home golf wine tasting event of the eve.

The interesting thing is how far disconnected the Bend cougar, and Bend metro-sexual male are from the out of work struggle old Bend working man/woman.

Like Boss Hogg Hollern said last year. Bend is a town of non-real people, with non-real children, and non-real jobs.

The great thing is metro-sexual men need to have their nails done, and their body hair shaved, so all of Bend Salons, will be busy-busy until the money is gone.

For the cougars, if they're thrifty they'll continue to score young cock.

Life is good in Bend for the fortunate.

Anonymous said...

I cannot think of a single city more susceptible to the plague of this bubble implosion than San Fran. There have been a variety of factors contributing to this.

So what are those factors?

Anonymous said...

"The Metro-Sexual men can be found at Newport market buying wine for their home golf wine tasting event of the eve."

WTF is a "home golf wine tasting event"???

Anonymous said...

And LA will suffer. But San Fran will suffer the most

Actually the bubble was bigger in SoCal than anywhere else in the country and that's where the foreclosure rate is highest. I would like to see some empirical evidence for your insistence that SF is going to become a black hole. So far I've seen nothing but bald assertions. I don't have any real estate investments in the SF area so I really couldn't care one way or the other, but I don't like to see unsupported bullshit go unchallenged.

Anonymous said...

SF will collapse for the same reason as Bend, 'fudge-packing'.

Fudge-Packers don't breed, so yes eventually SF will black-hole, in the french sense.

Bend is a sub-burb of SF. Thus it too will black-hole, thus the reason for expediting the red-necks, note they didn't expedite the midnight-cowboy.

Bend is all about 'midnight cowboys', aka metro-sexuals.

Anonymous said...

WTF is a "home golf wine tasting event"???

*


You 'obviously' don't live at BT ( broken-top ), look out the window dude.

Anonymous said...

Hey guys and gals! I've just finished my next invention. It's a solar-power and non-racist bean bandit cleaning device. I'd explain it more but I've gotta run!

See ya bitches!

Anonymous said...

So what are those factors?

*

I suspect the 'factor' is pure jealousy, old home-boy just can't stomach the fact that he left the bay-ahrea for BEND-OREGON.

Thus he hopes, and prays for apocalypse in SF, to prove to his family they made the right move.

Yes, eventually home-boy will be correct in the geologic sense, eventually SF will go down.

I concur, SF has simply too much diversification, ... It's BEND that's fucked, home-boy by definition posts shit from all over the world. Sometime you have to wonder if home-boy even lives in Bend.

LA is the arm-pit of cali, and yes, LA has cyclic corrections every 7 years, then again, its always been that way. SF is NOT the arm-pit,

I know this is a tired request, but the story is about BEND.

What a fucking shit-hole.

I have been out of town, and my wife made a point of going out every night for the past few weeks, and tonight she dragged mee house out with her, and the placres were EMPTY, she pointed out that its been that way every place she went last few weeks.

I heard the words from her lips "BEND IS DEAD". She still goes out, and loves the service, ... It's amazing how much service you get now that there are no customers.

Deschutes Brewpub still has a few, not crowded, even the LS Ampith-Shithole wasn't really that crowded tonight, folks enjoying free stuff.

Yes, Bend is Dead.


How much, How long will they keep feeding Bend?

Does anyone have the sense to pull the plug and move on?

SF has never had the misery known in Bend in the last 40-50 years, cyclic corrections, all of downtown with plywood, its coming to Bend, you'll not see that in SF.

The fudge-packers in SF are artists, they have degrees, and skill. Bend attracted the lasse-fairy get rich quick fudge-packer, Bend is going to DEEP in da aids.

Anonymous said...

Bend attracted the lasse-fairy get rich quick fudge-packer, Bend is going to DEEP in da aids.

*

Are 'lassee-fairys' metro-sexuals??

....

No, for instance BENDBB is not a true homo-sexual, he is incapable of loving another man or woman, he only lives finger his hole, and his 'pussy' ( bruce-pussy ).

Bend's metro-sexual can be found in no other urban environment. They're purely a factor of self absorption, HELOC's, and exceptional-ism. Toss in a little RE flipping and you have Bend-OR metro-sexual nirvanna.

They can be seen anytime anywhere in Bend.


p.s. Bend has been 'dead' for a long time, its just that now even the dead know that Bend is dead.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So far I've seen nothing but bald assertions.

read previous posts. There's been much about it.

And chill. This whole thing is opinion anyway. The "fact" that we've experienced a bubble & subsequent bust is completely a matter of opinion.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Went thru The Skeeze. No doubt there is hard core upwardly mobile white trash hillbillies taking over.

But that's what Bend was 20 years ago, and lookie where we are today.

$250K for some of those McShitShacks is getting to be compelling vs renting. NOT all the way there yet. But I can see parity in the distance...

Anonymous said...

you folks are more whacked than anyone i ever met in SF. i beginning to believe...if you represent bend -you must be right. it's dead. don't go near sf. they won't like weird obsessive hicks like yourselves and you don't have any qualifications for the many highly paying jobs in the city. may i suggest somewhere in Texas? i think you'll fit right in there somewhere near the polygamist compound. and you can talk all day about things you know nothing about with other hicktown "experts". you can condemn people you've never met with a new set of hicks who will be impressed by your knowledge of metro-sexuals and what people do at burning man, which you've never been to of course.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

don't go near sf.


Uh oh! Shouldn'a said that! Now we comin, faggot!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

you can condemn people you've never met with a new set of hicks...

When we condemn' these people, does we just slide it right on?

timothy said...

>>don't go near sf.

We'd add diversity. You guys love diversity down there, right? Or is that all hollow talk?

timothy said...

Peter Schiff's worst case...

http://tinyurl.com/45cxmp

Anonymous said...

Sounds like a typical Cali, they bring that attitude to Oregon, talk about how great CA is, then move to Oregon and try to change us.

Anonymous said...

What? Where? Who is that? Dude, I have to drive to the store at 12mph with my blinker on the whole time, so I can stand in the Express Checkout lane with 600 items, checking the price on every single item & using multiple coupons illegally, and tell the checker about what I did over Christmas 1957, and about all my grandkids.

LMAO!!! Perfect! You nailed it! Except you left out the part where you swipe your debit card the wrong way 16 times.

Anonymous said...

Are 'lassee-fairys' metro-sexuals??

No. A metrosexual is a heterosexual male who fusses as much over his appearance as a homosexual male.

Anonymous said...

The "fact" that we've experienced a bubble & subsequent bust is completely a matter of opinion.

But it's an opinion with data to back it up. I haven't seen the data that supports the "SF-will-become-a-ghost-town" hypothesis.

Anonymous said...

A metrosexual is a heterosexual male who fusses as much over his appearance as a homosexual male.

*

You have just described BEND, over 50% of Bend is Salons, and most used by Men ( sic ), I mean Man-Twats.


Is this the reason for the Bend RE collapse?

Ewert said...

Talking about bikes, I have a question.

My wife has cut my allowance, which means no ky-jelly.

Her shop sells "monkey butt", which says not for internal use. Has anyone in this forum used monkey-butt as a lubricant?

This can save me lots of money, as I can just steal it from her shop.

Anonymous said...

impressed by your knowledge of metro-sexuals and what people do at burning man, which you've never been to of course.

*

I go to burning-man every year, thats why I know is 80% SF people, hell it was started by SF people, and got to big for the area, and they moved it to black-rock.

I love SF, and BEND is no SF, Bend is a a bunch of man-twat/metro-sexual golfers, that played the RE HELOC game, and bought/sold solons, ...

SF has art, food, culture, ... Bend has sagebrush, rabbits, chipmunks, and desert.

SF has education, Bend has consumption. There is NO compare. BEND IS FUCKED.

SF lives, there are quite a few SF/Burning-Man types in Bend, that said the average Bend Metro-Sexual Man-Twat couldn't wouldn't go to Burning-Man, as the dust alkaline that is, wold fuck up their salon job.

Me thinks that HOME-BOY has never been to SF.

Anonymous said...

I haven't seen the data that supports the "SF-will-become-a-ghost-town" hypothesis.

*

Just study history, go back to 1905 in almost every case SF bounces back, even the great-depression didn't fuck SF.

Bend is fucked, and kept alive by easy-money, and now that is OVER.

Which means a hard-life in the desert, which means ALL the metro-man-twats will bail.

END OF FUCKING STORY.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I haven't seen the data that supports the "SF-will-become-a-ghost-town" hypothesis.

And prior to the Housing bubble, don't you recall the pieces in Bend media denying that such a thing was even taking place? A-priori "proof" doesn't exist. It's my hypothesis, and if you don't agree, that's fine.

Where's your "proof" that SF WON'T go down hard? Right, there is none.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And prior to the Housing bubble...

Prior to the peak, during the runup, that is.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Me thinks that HOME-BOY has never been to SF.

Got married near there.

And I am NOT saying SF will DISAPPEAR. Tokyo has NOT disappeared. BUT it has suffered a near 2 decade long financially driven malaise. And Tokyo has ALL THAT CRAP SF has... art, culture, HUGE industrial base, shrieking demand for space, land, and all that.

But there's been 17 years of economic malaise there just the same. They're SURROUNDED by exploding economies.. and still Japan, which HAS NOT fallen off the map, is not participating to near the extent it should. Why? The catastrophic after effects of a HUGE Bubble bursting. A bubble that took place slowly over decades.

OK, everytime you want to tell me why SF is 100% IMMUNE from this thing, 1 word:

TOKYO.

One of the MOST populous, industrially & commercially prosperous, crowded, high-demand places ON EARTH... but stuck in the mud for 17 years because of a property & financial bubble bursting. I don't give a fuck about anything else... diversity of economy, "It's different here", "You don't get it", etc.

I DO get it. Bubbles bursting LAY WASTE to places that CANNOT be laid waste to. 2 years ago, the din of "BEND IS DIFFERENT, BEND IS IMMUNE." was so shrill, people like BEM & I and others were the objects of volumes of ridicule. Where we at now?

Time will tell. It's DAMN EASY to defend the status quo, and say what is obvious. It's hard to actually predict something.

People who defend SF are taking the EASY ROUTE. I KNOW full well SF is on FIRM FINANCIAL FOOTING today. Bear Stearns was on FIRM FINANCIAL FOOTING on Jan 1, and where are they now?

Shit happens. And in Bubbles bursting, the incredible happens. Bend will be destroyed by this thing... and SF will be hobbled. Hobbled mightily. Worse than you think.

I'll still take Wichita over ANYWHERE in CA.

Anonymous said...

But, HOMER why SF, why not BEND?

The DEBATE is about BEND, but because of your intellectual laziness you drift to SF, you post shit from all over the world, and say a nary about BEND.

Bend is FUCKED, BEND is DEAD, and everybody knows, so now what??

HOMER says look towards SF, I the oracle predict there to be the next economic tsnumami,

HOMER your FULL OF SHIT.

Keep on BEND, there are a TON of loser renters doing the SF-RE blog fuckoff. Please stick with BEND, or move to SF and get a life.


Your tortured years with BEM and nobody seeing it coming is a very tired and non-sympathetic story.

I think its time you focus on TODAY, and BEND, BEM is long gone. Your now the crazy at walmart with a sign that says "SF is Near the End".

SO FUCKING WHAT.

Why not take the sign down to the Golden-Gate bridge and wave it down there, what is the point of waving it here?

There is NO credible proof that SF will die.

Bear is NOT SF, bear is-was easy-money, and phony paper, and it went down for that reason. SF is a beautiful city, in a beautiful location, in one of the best ports in the world, it has TOO many fucking things going for it.

BEND is FUCKED, and HOMER has FUCKED HIS BRAIN with this BLOG.

It's CB-RADIO, in a few years folks are going to say "BLOG-WHAT", "TWITTER-WHAT", I can't believe people wasted their time, ...


Get a fucking life Homer, your no different than the pussy when it comes to irrationality.

Anonymous said...

"TOKYO. . . . stuck in the mud"

Bend should be "stuck in the mud" the way Tokyo is. Perhaps what Tokyo has been experiencing is better than the old boom/bust cycle.

Anonymous said...

Where's your "proof" that SF WON'T go down hard? Right, there is none.

So you make an off-the-wall claim and then demand that we DISPROVE it? Sorry, it doesn't work that way. The burden of proof is always on the person making the assertion. Otherwise I could say "Bigfoot exists. Prove I'm wrong."

HOWEVER ...

We do have history, which shows that while the Bay Area (like virtually every place else) has had downturns, it has always bounced back. And we do have the knowledge that its economy is diversified (i.e. not entirely dependent on fleecing tourists and selling real estate at inflated prices) and the region has many things going for it, economy-wise and otherwise.

Bend is a completely different animal.

Anonymous said...

I still like the sound of the economic development consultant gig, but does one have to be a metrosexual to be an economic development consultant? Or does one only have to be a 'ruralsexual' to an economic development consultant . . . you know, plaid, Wrangler's, large belt buckle, and belt holster for the cell phone.

Anonymous said...

Take a look at Hollern, Kuratek, ... old metro-sexuals rule the roost at Bend, they have one upped the Angry Lesbo Bitch at her own game.

Welcome to Bend.

Look at Abernethy, ...

Until the city is flat ass broke the Bend metrox-sexual will be the economic winner at the Bend table.

This probably explains the demise of the red-neck, and the bend-dog, and other signs of old-Bend.

New Bend is a smooth talking HELOC flipper who pays to have his public hair shaved.

Bend is Aspen, now its Bend is Boulder. No Bend is SOHO.

Bend burns and the metro-sexual cashes his 'visioning check', thats metro talk for those who plan.

Note that Juniper Ridge is now on its fourth Visioning proposition, this cat will have nine lives.

Nobody dare fuck with a lesbo, and nobody dare fuck with a metro more power than blacks or jews yelling anti-semitism.

Loose a red-neck job in Bend? No problemo one less red-neck, send the lesbos packing to PDX, not a problem.

See a fucking public hair salon close, and then you know the BULL is going to declare Bends demise.

Anonymous said...

we do have the knowledge that its economy is diversified (i.e. not entirely dependent on fleecing tourists and selling real estate at inflated prices)

*

I was thinking the same thing, SF is a world class city, people want to go there then you have Bend with its COVA/COBA/DVA/VCB city taxpayer, hustle market bullshit budget.

SF don't have to beg metro-sexuals to CUM and retire.

Bend isn't natural, not 1% of Bends current residents could make it on their own here in the desert.

Bend is the florida swamp game played to the max, thanks to the best PR&Marketing the CALI could export.

Take away Bend's PR&MARKETING ( HOLLERN/BROOKS ), and you could a little desert wayside.

If there was ever a ghost town it was Bend, Salons, gallerys, ... You could ask for a more disposable town.

Fickle shit-eatiing metro-sexual man-twats rule the roost in Bend Oregon, and the result is the finest ponzi scheme this century in the USA.

Anonymous said...

Excuuse meeeeeeee but Tokyo is still $100 for a beer, and $50 for a coffee, yes RE is down from $10M for a home to $1M, but still un-affordable.

You can't compare Bend to Tokyo.

I think comparing Bend to 1945 Hiroshima, or Nagasaki would be more apt. Burn baby Burn. Bend is Burns at best.

Tokyo is the NYC of Japan, Like Shanghai is to China, Bend isn't even a hamlet, its just a truck-stop wayside. The lack of history is pathetic, even 30+ years ago Bend, was truck stops, and trailer parks.

Japan is still the #2 economy, and Tokyo is the center.

Bend has no product, no service, no output, its a desert Island where people buy oil, and food on credit, and they're NOT paying their bill.

Bend is an economic wasteland.

bruce said...

Tetherow sells its 50th homesite
Published: June 16. 2008 4:00AM

Tetherow has recorded its 50th homesite sale since marketing of the new Bend golf resort community began last fall, and another 14 sales are in escrow, according to a news release. Homesites are priced from $300,000 to $775,000, and most include a membership in Tetherow Golf Club. While private, the Scottish links-style golf course designed by David McLay Kidd, the architect of Bandon Dunes on the Southern Oregon coast, is scheduled to open with limited access on July 28.

Anonymous said...

"Or does one only have to be a 'ruralsexual' . . . you know, plaid, Wrangler's, large belt buckle, and belt holster for the cell phone."

what you are describing is called a "retrosexual"

Anonymous said...

" Or does one only have to be a 'ruralsexual' to an economic development consultant . . . you know, plaid, Wrangler's, large belt buckle, and belt holster for the cell phone."

+ + +

Not a retrosexual (which is probably somebody who makes love the old fashion way)...

Basiclly what you saw at the Sisters Rodeo (pronounced row-DAY-oh)... tourist cone lickers on a costume party cowboy theme. I know, I used to be one of them. Put on your tight wanglers (think marshmellow halfway stuffed into a drinking straw), denim shirt, big'ol'beltbuckle, and cowboy boots. Yep, you be a real cowboy in Sisters Country, while the real locals hit the rodeo in tennis shoes and shorts! Although a few of the Sisters locals didn't get the memo, and still costume it up on cowboy day.

Ruralsexuals drive pick-me-up trucks, and watch broke back mountain movies, and mate with their neighbors llamas.

Anonymous said...

Ewert,

Its a big high five with the monkey butt, its an inny and outty, good for a long ride with your favorite pardner or by yourself.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/6nwqer

bruce said...

Re: CHEETOSFUCKER

That is twisted funny.

You want stupid kids funny, ala NWX parks, check out this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYYQOaj3MKA

St Paddy said...

We've got a live one on over at BBB, a realtor going at it with the boyz, pretty entertaining.

Anonymous said...

>>We've got a live one on over at BBB

Seems more like a dead man walkin'. She just doesn't know it yet. Or she probably does and this is the last desperate attempt to unload that frickin beast.

timothy said...

Anyone else notice how mortgage rates have been creeping up?

Anonymous said...

>>> We've got a live one on over at BBB

One of real estate persons posting there seemed amazed that there is a "forum" devoted to real estate that she wasn't familiar with. Those folks would really have palpitations if they somehow had the misfortune of stumbling onto this site.


>>> Anyone else notice how mortgage rates have been creeping up?

Timothy, you better buy your house now before it's too late. BEST TIME TO BUY IN 20 YEARS. Bielefeld more or less said she'll take $962,000 for her $1.6 million modern mansion (which, by the way, I actually like a lot -- don't see much modern nowadays).

ewert said...

Guys,

I got a problem, I was doing the 'ride the pony' rimming with the little lady, and using the monkey butt, and she got a terrible 'monkey face'.

Any suggestions useful, I got put some pic's on tinyurl, so the doc's here can give me advice.

http://www.tinyurl.com/logyourip

ewert

LavaBear said...

(which, by the way, I actually like a lot -- don't see much modern nowadays)

I really liked it as well. Nicely put together. She really had an idea of what she wanted to do and she took the time to do it right. Too bad she completely missed the market by taking too much time.

bruce said...

I must be stepping on some toes...

timothy said...

I love rates going up. I kills the buying competition. Low rates just make buyers ask for more because they can get you to look at the monthly payment.

Helps people with big down payments, and creams people with small downpayments. Thus, sellers have to come down.

I put a bunch down, get a great price, and refi when rates come down.

LavaBear said...

I love rates going up. I kills the buying competition. Low rates just make buyers ask for more because they can get you to look at the monthly payment.

I only sorta love rates going up. I'd prefer if the mortgage world just went back to 20% down and 30 year fixed loans with documented income, employment history, and yadda yadda yadda. Essentially a level playing field. That way I don't have some yahoo who really can't afford it bidding the price up. Thus it kills the buying competition and I still can enjoy the low interest rates.

LavaBear said...

Fuckin Fuck. I try to watch a little soccer. I really try. It's just sooo damn hard. Every time I look up some euro fag is rolling on the pitch acting as if they've been shot with the tazer on full. Then they miraculously leap up and sprint full speed. Fuck it. Maria telling me to buy stocks is better than this.

Anonymous said...

>>> I try to watch a little soccer. I really try. It's just sooo damn hard.


Well, at least it's better than watching two Sex and the City reruns in households like mine with only 1 TV.

bruce said...

Re: Well, at least it's better than watching two Sex and the City reruns in households like mine with only 1 TV.

Hey, it's better than going shoe shopping--at least you know when it's going to be over :)

Anonymous said...

>>> Bruce said: "I must be stepping on some toes..."

I think the problem some people have with you is the use of words such as "us" and "we", when you're really quite new to the area.

You say things like "the City Council's ineptitude is really going to hurt us". The "us" that sounds unnatural coming from the voice of a Wisconsin-Utah transplant. It doesn't bother me, but it apparently bothers the ol' timers.

Thus the cynics ask: Why would a newcomer be so worried about the state of the local economy? What's your gameplan Bruce?

(No need to 'xplain yourself once more. That might do more harm than good. Just callin' it as I see it.)

Marge said...

Bored Boyz,,,,,,
Just posted this at the other place:)

The stats are unforgiving on rural properties right now. CAN'T sell em!
495 on the market in Bend and Redmond. 61 sold since Jan 1 08. Med down to $427k from $562k. Big time haircut there. Bite. Is that near a 49 month supply? Very scary market.
Way too many buyers that want to buy are being turned down for 5% down loans and the lenders want 25%down since Bend is tagged in the RED zone. Have a buyer that built and is free and clear on a 2 year old home that is being turned down for a new mortgage on a new home. They have lived there for 2 years and meet the cap gains exclusion, the bank says they don't have 2 years of mortgage payments history they don't qualify for the new loan. Crap, if you pay cash for everything you can't get a loan. What are the implications of that. Help me out here boyz....this does not make sense. Lord help us all.

Hoard corn!! Hoard chicken. Get big freezers, and hope the electricity doesn't go out.

Chuck said...

Hoard. Now there is a novel idea. Between all the profanity and unrealistic survivalist mentality here this site has no credibility. A fun read none the less.

LavaBear said...

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/publ/30yrmolg.asp

bruce said...

722 NODs to date this year. My 1500 guess is starting to look a bit low. Marge at 1800 may even be low, as historically July-Sept are the highest months.

bruce said...

BTW, that 50 sales in Tetherow so far doesn't exactly jibe with recordings. I count 33 deeded to developers or individuals to date in Tetherow Phase 1. I must be missing something.

Anonymous said...

"Slow Train"

Sometimes I feel so low-down and disgusted
Can't help but wonder what's happening to my companions
Are they lost or are they found, have they counted the cost it'll take to bring down
All their earthly principles they're gonna have to abandon ?
There's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

I had a woman down in Alabama
She was a backwoods girl, but she sure was realistic
She said, Boy, without a doubt, have to quit your mess and straighten out
You could die down here, be just another accident statistic
There's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

All that foreign oil controlling American soil
Look around you, it's just bound to make you embarrassed
Sheiks walking around like kings, wearing fancy jewels and nose rings
Deciding America's future from Amsterdam and to Paris
And there's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

Man's ego is inflated, his laws are outdated, they don't apply no more
You can't rely no more to be standing around waiting
In the home of the brave, Jefferson turning over in his grave
Fools glorifying themselves, trying to manipulate Satan
And there's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

Big-time negotiators, false healers and woman haters
Masters of the bluff and masters of the proposition
But the enemy I see wears a cloak of decency
All non-believers and men stealers talking in the name of religion
And there's slow, there's slow train coming up around the bend.

People starving and thirsting, grain elevators are bursting
Oh, you know it costs more to store the food than it do to give it
They say loose your inhibitions, follow your own ambitions
They talk about a life of brotherly love, show me someone who knows how to live it
There's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

Well, my baby went to Illinois with some bad-talking boy she could destroy
A real suicide case, but there was nothing I could do to stop it
I don't care about economy, I don't care about astronomy
But it's sure do bother me to see my loved ones turning into puppets
There's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

LavaBear said...

Slow train indeed Bob. We passed 100 NOD's for the month. Tracking toward 170 ish. Not quite last months record but that train is coming round the Bend.

Anonymous said...

from The Oregonian:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/06/the_politics_of_land_in_bend.html

The politics of growth in Bend

Posted by Jeff Mapes, The Oregonian June 18, 2008 13:48PM
Categories: politics and economics

I've been sunning myself for a few days over in the vicinity of Bend, which I must say is rapidly looking downright metropolitan.

The upscaling of Bend, of course, is an old story - although it is fun to cruise the "Old Mill District" and ponder just who is shopping at Victoria's Secret or who is buying the new brick townhouses that look like they could be a backdrop for a Woody Allen movie.

What really struck me is that in these days of economic hard times, there's a feeling that Central Oregon is planning for a much bigger future. Even the local newspaper, The Bend Bulletin, feels like a throwback to the prosperous 90s. It's growing in circulation and fat with advertising. I guess it helps that this is one area that literally manufactures older people, who still like to read the newspaper, God bless them.

Two articles from the Bulletin (you'll need to pay 'em to see 'em online, though) particularly caught my eye.

First off, state and local officials are planning to open up a 945-acre plot of land south of the Redmond airport for industrial development. The land, acquired by the state from the federal government a year ago, reprsents the "largest in the state's portfolio of developable industrial land," according to the Bulletin. Not only can rich people move to a Central Oregon golf resort, but they can bring their businesses with them.

Meanwhile, the Bulletin also reports, the city of Bend is working on a big expansion of the urban growth boundary, by as much as 5,700 acres over the next 20 years. That's a lot for a city of 78,000. The last time the tri-county Portland area (population of nearly 1.6 million) had a major expansion of the UGB, in 2002, just under 19,000 acres were added.

The Bulletin noted that some of the city's most prominent developers - including Brooks Resources, which was once in the lumber business - managed to get parcels of their land inside the new lines proposed for the UGB. They hadn't fared so well in the first draft of the plan put out by the city a year ago.

Politically, the region is still Republican. But the Republican registration edge in Deschutes County was cut in half between January and the May primary, and Democrats think they might have a couple of competitive legislative races in Central Oregon. It's became a region that statewide candidates ignore at their peril.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's growing in circulation and fat with advertising...

Clearly NOT in the know about The Bulletins finances.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Poor Sophie B Hawk'n Million Dollar Homes over at BendBB. Got her ass chewed for lying straight up about the cost of building a house.

When they crowd over there had the audacity to actually disagree...

"I BID YOU GOOD DAY!

I SAID GOOD DAY!"

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

state and local officials are planning to open up a 945-acre plot of land south of the Redmond airport for industrial development...

They didn't hear about Redmonds 22% industrial vacancy rate?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You can't compare Bend to Tokyo...

Hmmm. I didn't.

Wow, there's a LOT of affection for SF.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's CB-RADIO, in a few years folks are going to say "BLOG-WHAT", "TWITTER-WHAT", I can't believe people wasted their time, ...

No ones got a gun to YOUR head.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

495 on the market in Bend and Redmond. 61 sold since Jan 1 08. Med down to $427k from $562k.

Wow. But I have to admit, rural is not in mega-plunge mode like I thought it would be, cuz these farmers are actually making money for the first time in 30 years. I don't think they NEED to sell the way they have in the past.

Still, that's pretty brutal.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

722 NODs to date this year. My 1500 guess is starting to look a bit low. Marge at 1800 may even be low...

Damn. Things are starting to unwind quick.

Starting to look like a 3-tiered market:

NOD's & Repo's
Cash strapped builders
Existing home sellers

They'll sell, slowly. In that order.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

LET THE PERP WALKS BEGIN!

Two former Bear Stearns managers arrested: report

Two former hedge fund managers at investment bank Bear Stearns were arrested Thursday morning, according to an NPR report on its website on Thursday.

The former managers, Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, are expected to be indicted and arraigned on securities fraud charges, NPR said.

A representative for the two former managers, an FBI representative for New York and a representative for the U.S. Attorney's office at Brooklyn federal court did not return Reuters calls for comment.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WATCH OUT MOSS-CO, THE FBI MAKES HOUSECALLS.

Ex-Bear Stearns managers arrested at their homes
Thursday June 19, 9:14 am ET
By Tom Hays, Associated Press Writer
Ex-Bear Stearns managers, suspected of misleading investors, arrested at their homes

NEW YORK (AP) -- Two former Bear Stearns managers have been arrested, federal authorities said Thursday, becoming the first executives to face criminal charges related to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

Matthew Tannin was taken into custody outside his New Jersey home on Thursday morning and Ralph Cioffi was arrested at his New York City home, the FBI said.

Authorities in Brooklyn are expected to release details later Thursday on the case against the men, who are ex-managers of Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds that collapsed last year.

A law enforcement official told The Associated Press that an indictment naming the men was the result of a yearlong federal securities fraud investigation.

The former executives are suspected of misleading investors about the risky subprime mortgage market, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the outcome of the investigation is pending.

Tannin "is innocent," said his attorney, Susan Brune. "He is being made a scapegoat for a widespread market crisis. He looks forward to his acquittal."

Cioffi's attorney declined comment on Thursday and the U.S. attorney's office did not return a call for comment.

The fallout from defaults on U.S. mortgages has rattled the global economy and the American housing market.

Subprime mortgages, those issued to people with shaky credit, were repackaged as securities and sold across the globe.

The implosion of the hedge funds foreshadowed Bear Stearns' own demise, with the Federal Reserve having to intervene earlier this year to bail out the beleaguered bank. Their collapse revealed how much damage had been done to the companies that bought, repackaged and sold the loans.

Despite positive assessments by Cioffi and Tannin, the Bear Stearns hedge funds failed in June 2007. The funds had more than $20 billion in assets before crashing.

Cioffi, 52, and Tannin, 46, already have been named in lawsuits brought last year by hedge fund investors, including Barclays Bank PLC, who allege they were purposely misled.

Barclays accused Bear Stearns of knowing for months that certain assets in the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Master Fund were worth "far less" than their stated values.

The bank alleged Bear Stearns managers "hatched a plan to make more money for themselves and further to use the Enhanced Fund as a repository for risky, poor-quality investments."

The complaint said Bear Stearns told Barclays that the enhanced fund was up almost 6 percent through June 2007 -- when "in reality, the portfolio's asset values were plummeting."

Last month, Bear Stearns shareholders approved JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s $2.2 billion buyout at about $10 a share. Back in January 2007, before mortgage defaults began clobbering banks and draining demand from the debt markets, Bear Stearns had traded at $171 a share.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Man... watch out for MASS EXODUS when share prices go below $10 on these bankers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Essentially an admission that Redmonds downtown will have a decade-long malaise...

Getting ready for the reroute
Nobody is sure how long it will take to transform downtown Redmond, but some first steps are being taken right now

By Patrick Cliff / The Bulletin
Published: June 19. 2008 4:00AM PST

REDMOND — Downtown Redmond in the future will feature a centerpiece park, wider sidewalks, new facades and, planners hope, plenty of shoppers to support the stores and restaurants city leaders hope will open there.

That future starts Monday, when the southbound lanes of the Redmond reroute of U.S. Highway 97 are slated to open. The clogged, noisy, exhaust-spewing traffic will move off Sixth Street out of downtown — a moment city leaders have been anticipating for more than a decade.

Various plans are in different stages of completion, but it’s not certain when the pedestrian-friendly downtown will move from vision to reality.

A new City Hall is scheduled to open in July 2010, but downtown’s transformation could take years more. There is no set deadline, but rolling changes are expected throughout downtown. A new facade here, then a new building there.

“We’re transforming our downtown from what it is today into what our expectations are in the future,” said Redmond Director of Community Development Jim Hendryx. “We’re planning for it, we’re setting the table.”

The recent economic slowdown has tempered some of the city’s optimism. Last year, Nick Lelack, planning director for the city, thought downtown would look entirely different by 2013. Now, he thinks the changes might take a decade to take hold.

Those changes are defined in a set of guidelines the city is putting in place called the downtown overlay district. The changes include new sign rules, a color palette for buildings and building height limits.

Simply Sofas and Paulina Springs Books are neighbors on Sixth Street in downtown. Their cozy brick building was recently refurbished along the overlay guidelines. The stores have large windows on the front to encourage street browsing, something the guidelines encourage.

But the businesses are taking a chance, hoping the changes will take hold and entice people to downtown.

“We’ve had people come in who live in Redmond and it’s their first time downtown in years,” said Cynthia Claridge, a co-owner of Paulina Springs Books on Sixth Street. “We as merchants have to stimulate people to come downtown.”

Across the street is the store Piper Lilly, which is in a building constructed in 1912. Its awning doesn’t fit new sign guidelines, but owner Debbie Aldous is voluntarily making the changes proposed by the city. The awning will come down, the windows will run parallel to the sidewalk and purple wood above the door will be painted a new color.

Aldous, like others downtown, will pay for some of the changes with a grant from the city.

“I do think (the changes) will work,” she said.

The goal of the changes, said city leaders, is to convert a heavy-on-traffic downtown to a pedestrian friendly district.

Once the southbound reroute opens Monday, the area should become quieter. Traffic was significantly reduced on Fifth Street after the northbound lanes of the reroute opened May 5.

As Ian Snow sat on a showroom couch in Simply Sofas, which he owns with his wife, Amber, the smell of exhaust trickled in the open door and the noise of belching trucks cut off conversations.

The design changes were so important to the Snows, they closed their furniture store for about two weeks while the building’s facade was redone. Snow said the changes proposed by the city — and done on their store — will help draw customers downtown.

The new City Hall won’t necessarily be an economic anchor to downtown, but it will change how the area looks. Adjacent will be Centennial Park — for which the city is in the final stages of acquiring property, said Hendryx. The park will be off Evergreen Avenue, between Seventh and Eighth streets.

“Something our community lacks is a downtown park,” said Hendryx. “We expect to have a positive effect, to provide that anchor for downtown.”

When the park is finished it will be a major gathering place downtown, said Hendryx. Music and culture festivals will be held there, a crucial part of drawing locals and visitors.

The city should have building and park designs ready for public review in the next month.

Still to be decided is where everyone is going to park. As Hendryx put it, a busy downtown is one with a parking problem. Downtown Redmond, today, does not have a parking problem, he said.

But if the area does become the commercial center city leaders envision, all those shoppers will have to park somewhere. The city has discussed parking garages and parking lots.

“We still need to be thinking about surface parking and parking structures for the long term,” said Lelack. “We can’t wait until it becomes too congested and then not be able to afford it.”

Lelack said the city expects to send out surveys to property and business owners during the summer and to make a formal parking proposal by the early fall.

Downtown business owners, though, worry about on-street parking. Restaurants want room for sidewalk seating and some stores like antique or furniture stores want parking in front to load large items into customers’ cars. Finding a balance will be difficult, Aldous said.

“I’m skeptical about the parking situation,” said Aldous, who said that the issue is on top of her fellow merchants’ minds.


Patrick Cliff can be reached at 633-2161 or at pcliff@bendbulletin.com.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Redmond Director of Community Development Jim Hendryx

Fuck-N A!

Purple haze all in my brain
Lately things just dont seem the same
Actin funny, but I dont know why
scuse me while I kiss the sky

Anonymous said...

"Thus the cynics ask: Why would a newcomer (bruce) be so worried about the state of the local economy?"

Duh ... because he lives here and works here and pays taxes here and his kids (if he has any) go to school here?

Some of you Olde Tymers piss me the hell off, really. How long does somebody have to live here before he's allowed to have an opinion?

BTW I've lived here for more than 20 years.

timothy said...

Those Bear Sterns guys are in trouble because they lost money. If they had lied and committed fraud, but the shares had gone up instead of to zero, they'd still be siting pretty.

The real sin is being a loser.

Quimby said...

>> Wow, there's a LOT of affection for SF.

Yes Homer, I have to give you credit: You now how to rile up them (incogneto) calis.

The Bay Area is a concrete shit hole with too many people chasing bucks and ass. A soul-less den of animals.

bruce said...

Re: state and local officials are planning to open up a 945-acre plot of land south of the Redmond airport for industrial development...

They didn't hear about Redmonds 22% industrial vacancy rate?

...

At least they don't plan to turn it into the Pearl District, with our money.

Re: why am I concerned about the local economy? See answer above. For the next 20 years or so.

Our economy simply has to diversify, even if the dumb fucking RE types arguing on Bend Economy board think just getting back to 2005 would solve everything. It won't. No jobs, no one to buy houses except the very limited number of retirees and second home owners. Neither of whom will buy in a potholed, plywood-covered shithole.

bruce said...

Re: SF

The one big thing SF has going for it is it's the gateway to the Far East, where it is booming. That door to China and India gives it a lot more options than most places.

Quimby said...

>> The Bay Area is a concrete shit hole with too many people chasing bucks and ass. A soul-less den of animals.

Ever go back and re-read your shit and scare yourself? I need a vacation me thinks!

Anonymous said...

>>> The Bay Area is a concrete shit hole with too many people chasing bucks and ass. A soul-less den of animals.



You know what's great about the Internet? It enables pompous blowhards to connect with other pompous blowhards in a vast circle-jerk of pomposity.

Quimby said...

>> You know what's great about the Internet? It enables pompous blowhards to connect with other pompous blowhards in a vast circle-jerk of pomposity.

Damn straight, and I'll never deny it :)

Anonymous said...

The Bay Area is a concrete shit hole with too many people chasing bucks and ass. A soul-less den of animals.

"Nobody goes to that restaurant any more. It's too crowded." -- Yogi Berra, Philosopher

timothy said...

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

But yes, it was about a St. Louis restaurant--Rugerio's.

LavaBear said...

>>pompous blowhards in a vast circle-jerk of pomposity.

I thought that was the private social club thing upstairs of Vulva on Bond?

ewert said...

The one big thing SF has going for it is it's the gateway to the sexual freedom, where it is booming. That door to rectum and vagina gives it a lot more options than most places.

A person in SF can explore all orifices, unlike other places.

Bend might think its salons invented the Anal Wipe ( rectal bleaching, and hair removal ), but SF had Anal Salons decades ago.

There are no rural-sexuals in Bend, nobody is more than five miles of a full body salon in the Bend region for men.

Everyone in our region is a subUrban-Sexual.

tewert said...

I'm quite upset tonight. I found out where all my 'Monkey-Butt' was going, and I gave the little monkey a good spanking.

Please don't tell my brucey to steal Monkey-Butt(TM) from my shop.

If you want Monkey-Butt, come buy it yourselves.

If your in the look for a little Dominatrix action inquire.

Trudi

bruce said...

Don't let the rude troll scare you away.

Cross-posted from the BE board:
MLS #2807124, 1101 SW Silverlake Blvd, for sale at $114/ sq ft or $189,000. This is right around the corner from me, on the corner of Reed Market and Silverlake Blvd. Last sold 1/20/07 for $275,000. Hit the NOD's, for the second time, on 6/6/08. Currently up for rent as well. As the MLS listing says:

Great investment rents for $1100 - $1200 a month. Partially remodeled.

Of course, that doesn't quite make the $1627 mortgage payment. The owner looks to have buried himself on a couple of other properties as well.

We are getting closer to reality, even though it is causing great pain.


And currently renting and saving myself, I would guess you would be lucky to get $800/mo there, next to Reed Market.

bruce said...

Downtown is packed. I wonder how Dunc is doing. If things stay strong, the city could muddle through with a little effort and paying better attention. At least until they decide they really, really need that $40M for Cooley/97.

Anonymous said...

Downtown is packed.

Has something to do with the Bite of Bend today, don'tcha think?

bruce said...

Of course it does.

Duncan McGeary said...

Did all right. A little above average for what I'd expect on a summer Saturday. A bit more work with the people...

Tomorrow will be the real test. If we do well tomorrow, I might start thinking that these street closures aren't so bad....nah.

I'd been thinking the muddling scenario myself, especially for downtown, but the 4.50 gas has got me backpedaling again.

Anonymous said...

HEY! Maybe Bend IS Aspen!

http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20080624/NEWS/289443983/1058