Addendum:
Bend Median and Average Price per square foot drops to lowest level in 2 years:
Prices drop below $200/sf, first time in almost 2 years, down 18% from June 2006 all-time high.
Prices drop below $200/sf, first time in almost 2 years, down 18% from June 2006 all-time high.Damn! Another week where the desperation meter on the housing market seemed to redline all week! The fear was palpable, and was best manifested in the absolute plummet in Cascade Bancorp shares. CACB lost 25% in the last 9 trading days, and 50% in the past 3 months. Here's a 3 year chart:
If I had to choose some sort of "leading indicator" of Bend's economy, this would be my #2 choice. The tentacles of CACB's financial grip on this area make its share price a pretty damn good indicator of the area's financial health, in my mind."What's the most important indicator of Bend's financial health?", you ask? Well, I'm glad you asked, and if you'll just shut up for 2 seconds, I'll answer. It's this:
Months Inventory, Bend OR. Y-axis InvertedAnybody who is even a remotely regular visitor to this blog, should know well that I consider Months Of Inventory to be THE primary indicator of RE health in the area, and further that RE Health = =~ Total Economic Health, at least in the Bend area.
And I inverted the axis, mainly because "rising" graphs are most easily associated with "Good Times", and falling with "Bad". Now, the final data point in December 2007, are estimations: the data won't be finalized until later this month. But I used 1,275 actives, and 74 sales to make the computation. I got the 74 solds from a post on BendBB, and the 1,275 is a low-ball estimate from my own "vague recollection" of running a query on COR, and getting a number in the 1,320's. So I lowballed my own estimate by about 50 homes.
And look at that leading plummet in Months-of-Inventory vs that CACB chart: It's like that baby had eyes! Months of Inventory led the stock markets own best guess about the financial health of CACB, arguably one of the most important companies in Central Oregon, and one hell of a bellweather.
If you compare that plot of Months of Inventory vs home prices, you see an almost pathological correlation: Prices ain't moving, while inventory is skyrocketing! If this was a store, it would be a ghost town with inventory piled up in the aisles. And you might wonder WHY the collective behavior of a group of people could be so oblivious to such an obviously rapidly deteriorating condition?
You need look no farther than the recent editions of The Bulletin, as usual. The Jan 4 Business headline, "Why relocate to Central Oregon? Companies cite region's quality of life, relatively low cost of doing business".
Wow! Whoa! We're finally going to get some nice, rock-solid reasons that the Big Boys have shrugged off the clearly wrongheaded advice of this blog, and are running headlong into Central Oregon, right?
Huh. See, you'd think that, given the title of the article. But it's funny. Seems David Fisher named the article FIRST, and did interviews SECOND. Cuz when you actually READ THE ARTICLE, you read quotes by execs from Integrated Environmental Technologies, saying things like:
"... currently Bend is comparable to other places, but I don't think I would characterize it as overly favorable."
Whoa! Talk about your ringing endorsement! What's next?
"I am indifferent between relocating my company to Bend and the smoking caldera of a volcano."
And with a name like Integrated Environmental Technologies, you'd think we are hitting the Big Time, right? Ummmm, no. IET, it seems, makes garbage cans where they burn garbage. OK, fine, they make real kick-ass garbage incinerators that burn the hell outta garbage, sort of what I did when I was a kid when I threw aerosol cans into burning garbage cans. Except they charge millions, and got "scientists" studying this stuff. It's companies like this that make me feel smart, cuz they pay big money to guys to figure out the scientific niceties of the aftermath of pyromaniacs like myself.
So, we have this company that rates Bend about a "4" on the business scale, why are they moving some of their office operations here?
"... the ability to recruit."
Whoa! Again, we have found a braintrust that has clearly done their homework. The ability NOT to recruit in Bend has been hashed over ad nauseum in this blog, so I won't do it again, but if you are moving to Bend because of the favorable recruiting atmosphere, you are an idiot.
Then later in the article we get this nugg, courtesy of Roger "Bait-and-Switch" Lee, EDCO muckety-much:
"EDCO gave IET's board a sales pitch on the advantages of Oregon's tax structure and utility rates, Lee said. Other than that, the company's (sic) executives toured the area on their own and made the call to move here. "We didn't have a chance to sell them on the community at all, " Lee said."They went shopping and sold themselves on it."
Ahhhhhhhhh. These geniuses "went shopping" to figure out whether to relocate here, or not. See, I wanna know where they went, in their quest to figure out whether to relocate their company here. Victoria's Secret? Safeway? Wal-Mart? Where?
Now, I'm not saying you should do this, but when IET does their IPO, I might not buy shares. Because if you make business decisions on where you're going to relocate your company based on a visit to Home Depot, you aren't going to get any slice of Paul-doh's humble retirement pie.
OK, OK. So maybe IET is a statistical outlier. They are barely making any sales of their kickass garbage cans, and figure a visit to an adult bookstore in Bend will hold the answers. Clearly David Fisher winnowed out some Real Winners that are picking up & making the important decision to move their operations, logistical, manufacturing, marketing, and finance divisions to Bend, right?
You're damn right! The Bulletin is all about brass tacks reporting, and giving it to us straight, and there IS a company that is moving it's considerable bulk to Central Oregon, and frankly I don't know why it wasn't picked up by the Wall Street Journal. I don't want to steal Fishers thunder, so I'll just quote the piece:
"That was pretty much the case with Kristen Smith Ehlers, who moved her designer dog wear business, Beau Neuveau, from St. Petersburg, FL, to to Redmond last year.
Ehlers shopped for locations along the West Coast last year partly to save on shipping costs. Her products are manufactured in China, then shipped to her warehouse to be distributed to her customers thoughout the World.
... The cost of doing business in Central Oregon, compared to other places on her list (with California crossed out) was "about a wash", she said, which left her to be sold on Central Oregon's beauty and recreation.
It's been tough to assemble even a small staff of reliable employees, Ehlers said -- the biggest downside she's found in the region -- and she's renting a home in Bend, rather than buying in what she considers a high-priced housing market."
Now, I quote the word "warehouse" because that's what the piece says, but clearly the correct term is "house". Her warehouse is probably her kitchen, basement, or possibly a 5'X5' storage space, running her $20/mo. And the quote 'Ehlers shopped for locations along the West Coast', entailed this woman submitting rental applications to untold property managers, after telling them she has 2,000 cats & will be running a meth lab out of the thing. Someone in Bend accepted.
Again, we have multiple RINGING ENDORSEMENTS about why a divorcee running a part-time "business" has slapped a restraining order on her stalker husband, threw all her work-in-progress , inventory, bookkeeping records, office supplies, and clothes into 1 cardboard box, threw it in the back of a 1978 Mercury Grand Marquis rust bucket, drove like hell across the country to butt-fuck Egypt and took up residence in a vast rental MANSION in Bend: Because of the difficulty in hiring helper monkies that aren't smoking meth on the job 24/7 and sky high home prices.
And true to form, she characterized Bends cost of doing business as ON PAR with California, a place she immediately CROSSED OFF her list. It was "a wash", so she busted out a dartboard, threw a dart, chose Oregon, and probably aborted a hysterical pregnancy while she was at it.
Again, when her leather dog collar business starts issuing shares, I will probably NOT go all in.
Yes, David Fisher has put together yet another ROCK SOLID piece on why the vast hordes of this countries business behemoths are flocking to Central Oregon: Our costs are on par with the highest cost state in America (California), and hiring meth-smokers is dead easy.
Now, there is another piece, this time by Jeff McDonald in he Jan 2 Bulletin, that really shows why you should relocate here, "PV Powered seeks room to grow. Solar company would like to stay in Bend, but time, location pose challenge".
You should know IMMEDIATELY what is going on, simply by reading the title: PV Powered execs have begun to BLACKMAIL Bend city councilors, and are threatening to move if their operation are not subsidized ad infinitum. That's all.
They simply have observed that whenever ANYONE presents Bend City Council with some sort of ultimatum, be it BAT buses, Les Schwab's hostile takeover of Juniper Ridge, or mob-style extortion by Knife River for 1,000% markup gimp-ramps, that City Council folds like Grama on laundry day. That's ALL you have to do to have local government offer to GIVE YOU LAND (Lava Court Apartments), or waive all taxes until the year 3000 (everyone else).
That's all this piece is: straight blackmail against borderline retards. Now you might think that PV Powered put together some elaborate scheme to pull one over on the city. Hell no! They are actually putting it out there that they are looking at the old Workensport location, possibly the stupidest location in Central Oregon you could possibly move an industrial company. Again, we find EDCO at the source of this small-scale ripoff:
"Economic Development for Central Oregon, whose mission includes recruiting new businesses to the area and retaining existing ones, has been working with the Oregon Economic and Community Development Department and the city of Bend to keep PV Powered in Central Oregon."
Again, this is straight extortion, and it will most likely succeed. Our city is run by retards who have no problem spending $1,000,000 to keep a single unskilled minimum wage job in Bend. All you have to do is threaten to leave within earshot of Roger Lee, and they will practically dump money on your doorstep.
Unbelievable.
These "flowery" pieces, jammed packed with lies and ludicrious headlines, make me wonder if there is not ENORMOUS pressure being put on the Bulletin to produce ALL IS WELL IN CENTRAL OREGON news pieces. Look at the graphs above. Things ARE NOT WELL. Things are imploding, and are already at levels that can only evince EXTREME ALARM. 74 sales in December? My God, you'd have to go back to the Stone Age to find monthly sales that low. And that's exactly what they said about Novembers number, which was 91.
Folks, these are PUMP-N-DUMP pieces. The Big Boys KNOW it's over & are pumping every idiot in sight to get them to buy their imploding dogs. That's what these & many other pieces are about.
If you DID NOT buy into the out-of-control Ponzi Scheme that was Central Oregon real estate for the past 3 years, and acted responsibly, then now is the time to bask in the horror. It may get close to as good as it got in the past 3 years (about 30 years from now), but it will NEVER get as bad as it is going to get in the next 5-10 years. We are RIGHT NOW in the teeth of a cascading implosion that will change the face of this place FOREVER.
If you DID buy into the insanity and doubled down on red for the 13th time & lost, then it is Coyote Ugly Time. It's time to remove the beer goggles, focus, and look over at the mega-skank that is lying on your arm.
Bend Housing Market, as seen through Beer Goggles, circa 2005Yeah, it's time to start ta chewing your arm off. See, what looked like this in 2005 when you bought it...
Your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th home in Bend, circa 2005... now, in 2008 without your financial beer goggles, looks like this:
Same homes, circa 2008What you got to do now, is clear: Start ta chewin'.
You think that skank is going to get better with age? She ain't. You made the sad, sad mistake of putting on the real estate beer goggles, against the onslaught of advice by those that advised VIGOROUSLY AGAINST IT, but you had to do it anyway, and now you got a beer-goggled skank, but probably more like 5 or 6 coyote uglies lying on your arm. Now, I have every right to lambast you, say I told you so, and give you detailed instructions on what you gotta do, but a picture is worth 1,000 words:
Bend home flipper chews his way out of 4-way with meth shacks bought with $0 down & $0 incomeBitch, it is time to start chewin'! You gotta drop price till at least 2 limbs fall plum off. Seriously. When have you ever woke up to Coyote Ass Ugly, and things got BETTER over time? When? NEVER, that's when. This is NOT going to get better. It is getting worse geometrically AS WE SPEAK. The time to get out with your diginity intact is long gone. It is time to face facts. You got your motherfuckin arm caught in the corn thresher cuz you a greedy-ass bitch who can't think for themself, and now your stupid ass has to start chewin', and ain't nobody going to feel bad for you who DID NOT put their greedy ass arm in the corn thresher.
YOU JUST STUPID, OK? Now you gotta pay. So shut the fuck up, and drop price until you get some sort of low-grade brain damage, cuz it's either going to happen now, or later. And it sure as hell ain't going to get better.
EVER.
The Bulletin is a prime conspirator in Boss Hogg's little pump-n-dump scheme, but sadly it is too late for that, as the idiotic RiverWild "auction" proved. NO ONE is buying the Kool-Aid anymore. The ass-ugly imploding nature of Bend's RE market is clearly visible in high-relief for all to see, and no amount of bullshit shoveled into the locals gullets will change that. They've done it a million times before to good effect, and the Bulletin still believes that we can "market our way out of anything", but obviously we cannot. IT IS OVER.
Keep your eye on Months Of Inventory: THAT will tell you when it's over. When we get a 3 month average below 6, IT IS OVER & YOU CAN BUY. Until then, the carnage will continue, and if you own one or more meth-cracker ass cracker shacks, ain't nothing going to stop the pain, UNTIL YOU START TA CHEWING, and roll your stupid ass away from them coyote ugly bitches you call homes.
Keep your eye on Months Of Inventory: THAT will tell you when it's over. When we get a 3 month average below 6, IT IS OVER & YOU CAN BUY. Until then, the carnage will continue, and if you own one or more meth-cracker ass cracker shacks, ain't nothing going to stop the pain, UNTIL YOU START TA CHEWING, and roll your stupid ass away from them coyote ugly bitches you call homes.
82 comments:
Now, I had hoped to post about the unfolding MASSIVE CONFLICT OF INTEREST scenario with Bend's beloved mayor, and area HOA Fee Swindles, but I just don't know enough. I did find this:
City Council Race or Mud Match?
Chick was dealt some heavy criticism from the Freidman camp when he accepted $20,000 in campaign contributions from political action committees associated with the Central Oregon Builder’s Association (COBA). Chick is Director of the COBA. And Chick has the gall to scrutinize Friedman’s business partnership with fellow councilor, Linda Johnson? The two council members are joint owners of Cascade Bookkeeping, Inc. A portion of Cascade Bookkeeping manages homeowners associations in Central Oregon and Chick sees this as a conflict of interest. Clearly, the candidate is desperately reaching for something. Anything to get the focus off of the real conflict of interest here, a director of a building association, who is privy to votes regarding future campaign contributions. According to Chick, he didn’t vote on those issues. Before becoming business partners, Friedman and Johnson spoke to legal advisors and peers. “We talked with city staff, with city councilors, with business people, with people in the media," Friedman said. "All of whom indicated in their opinions that it was both a smart business move and a non-starter issue as far as a conflict of interest is concerned.”
This is just about the Big Boys starting to eat each other, which is what happens when the food supply goes away. It was easy pickins on the poor & middle class of Bend for several years, but now it's brass knuckles time, and they eatin the rich.
It should be of ZERO surprise that City Hall is infested with greed, self-dealing, and straight up ILLEGALITIES. Even the settlement hearing called regarding the BAT buses is in flagrant violation of state law.
Standard Operating Procedure in Bend Oregon.
Chick is Director of the COBA. And Chick has the gall to scrutinize Friedman’s business partnership with fellow councilor, Linda Johnson?
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Actually its Chris Telfer, it would be interesting if Linda Johnson was also involved with 'cascade bookkeeping'.
Very interesting.
Jeff Kent, a retired federal prosecutor and a 1/6th owner, appointed as the replacement for Jack McClennen
I'm sure having a retired federal prosecutor on the board opposing their interests may be of more than passing interest to Freidman, et al.
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Yes, having 'federal prosecutor' as a 'dissident'.
The BULL must be going out of its mind, trying to portray these 'dissidents' as losers.
The losers here are Pape,Hollern, Bauhofer, Johnson, Friedman, Costa, Telfer, ... Switzer,
A lot of resignations, and the BULL will say its for health.
City Council Race or Mud Match?
by Richard Burton, Publisher
small font medium font large font
Unless you’re one of the eighteen wheels on a diesel truck, you won’t come prepared with your giant mud flap. Get your rain slicker and that old pair of rubber boots, they’ll come in handy as the mud continues to fly into the last few days of the campaign for two of the three Bend City Council seats up for grabs.
Derek Stevens and Mark Capell are both running for the Council Position 5 seat being vacated by City Councilor Dave Malkin. Clint Chick and Wyvetta Wilson are running against Mayor Bill Friedman for Council Position 6 seat. Chris Telfer is the only uncontested candidate, running for the Council Position 7 seat.
Mud comes in many varieties. We’re all familiar with muddy water, thick mud and the worst kind, sludge, otherwise known as sewer water. Most politicians are highly skilled at splattering muddy water and even thick mud if they’re wearing their rubber boots, but Clint Chick should go out for Olympian style sludge tossing, if there were such a sport. He might win this type of competition. We all know what’s in sewer water.
Chick was dealt some heavy criticism from the Freidman camp when he accepted $20,000 in campaign contributions from political action committees associated with the Central Oregon Builder’s Association (COBA). Chick is Director of the COBA. And Chick has the gall to scrutinize Friedman’s business partnership with fellow councilor, Linda Johnson? The two council members are joint owners of Cascade Bookkeeping, Inc. A portion of Cascade Bookkeeping manages homeowners associations in Central Oregon and Chick sees this as a conflict of interest. Clearly, the candidate is desperately reaching for something. Anything to get the focus off of the real conflict of interest here, a director of a building association, who is privy to votes regarding future campaign contributions. According to Chick, he didn’t vote on those issues. Before becoming business partners, Friedman and Johnson spoke to legal advisors and peers. “We talked with city staff, with city councilors, with business people, with people in the media," Friedman said. "All of whom indicated in their opinions that it was both a smart business move and a non-starter issue as far as a conflict of interest is concerned.”
It seems Chick likes to twist real issues and make issues out of non-issues or dwell on the past instead of planning and looking to the future. Like an ex-spouse, Chick refuses to talk about the issue at hand, bringing up mishandled Juniper Ridge, droning on and on about the mishandled negotiations and now questions the need for a four-year university. Juniper Ridge is coming. It’s the future of Bend. Talking about closed door meetings and what the council should have done or could have done is a mammoth waste of time. Where is this man’s vision? We need someone who can see Bend thirty years from now, who will fight for our grandchildren’s future. We need this university. We don’t need a leader who will sit back moaning about the past, what ifs and could have beens when we have an experienced man like Bill Friedman. Friedman has admitted to the fact that Juniper Ridge could have been handled better, but there was a Memorandum of Understanding made public and now we need someone who can lead us into the building phase and deliver through, someone who is familiar with the vision for Juniper Ridge.
Chick is far too under qualified, lacking the real city leadership that Friedman can and does provide to the Bend City Council. His experience in the oil and gas industry, as an insurance underwriter and financial advisor just doesn’t cut it for a seat on the Bend City Council. Mayor Friedman has been in office for four years and served nine years on the Bend City Council. He has been responsible for Farewell Bend Park, Bill Healy Memorial Bridge and developing roundabouts on the west side of Bend.
One of Chick’s favorite words when tossing sludge Friedman’s way is “micromanage”. Once again, Chick is terribly ill informed or perhaps, just embarrassing. To accuse Friedman of micromanaging is ludicrous. To say this is a show of disrespect to the other council members. So, Chick thinks the rest of the Council is a sack of puppets? If Friedman were a micromanager, the rest of the Bend City Council would have wanted him gone long ago. Fellow councilors; Bruce Abernethy, Jim Clinton, John Hummel and Linda Johnson backed Mayor Friedman in a joint statement, describing him as "a voice of reason, vision, passion and creativity on the council."
Throwing sludge is what Chick does best. He has even found a way to blame Bend’s phenomenal supernova like growth on Friedman, when Oregon law is responsible for the Urban Growth Boundary, which once established will also help with affordable housing, another one of Chick’s gripes. It’s easy to throw all the sludge on one man, when many, many factors come into play, but Chick’s mind doesn’t seem capable of grasping this concept. Anything to skirt around the real issue here, a truck load of campaign dollars dumped into Chick’s campground. He’s proud of this mountain of money, though he’s the Director of COBA, but remember, he didn’t vote on campaign contributions. He even said, “I’m not ashamed of any donations I took! They have bought into my agenda. I have not bought into theirs.” Not a smart comment, but Chick seems to have “foot in mouth” disease lately. So, the COBA or their political action committees, make no mistake, it’s coming from the same people, are they are a bunch of fools, too? They bought into Chick’s agenda, but he hasn’t bought into theirs? He said it, folks. He didn’t buy into theirs. Well, maybe they should take the money back then. What is Clint Chick’s agenda, except to throw sludge at well-respected members of the Bend City Council, reaching, reaching and then, finally grabbing some sludge instead?
Chick has also criticized Friedman, blaming him personally for not hiring enough police officers and instead, hiring a consultant for $70,000. Clearly this man has no idea how city government is run. Bill Friedman cannot put an ad in the newspaper and just hire a police officer himself. The Mayor defended himself by saying, “As you know, the department heads, including the police department, the fire department, public works, and all others, make requests, to the City Manager for staffing and funding. The City manager, in turn, makes an overall recommendation to the 14-member city budget committee. For each of the past two years, the city manager has recommended five additional police positions, as well as small additions in other departments. The budget committee reviewed and accepted those recommendations. I know the fire department would like additional EMTs; public works would like additional employees for road maintenance, sweeping and snow removal, and the police department for additional officers. But, all this must be done within the available funding and with the knowledge that it must be funded every year into the future. I am trusting the city staff, the City manager, the budget committee and the Council to complete each year's budget process in a responsible manner and within the resources of the city." He also defended himself well simply by explaining the workings of government to clueless Chick by saying,
"The Juniper Ridge consultant, approved by the entire Council, is paid for by the Master Developer and the sale of property in Juniper Ridge. None of the expense comes from city taxpayers. And, of course, the consultant is critical to the process of developing a plan for a major university presence in Bend. A presence that I see as critical to the future of our city." We really need this university in Juniper Ridge so Chick can enroll for government and business classes.
Bend residents are far too intelligent to vote for Clint Chick and most will certainly be put off by his lack of experience and knowledge in city government alone, not to mention his shady, unethical, sludgy campaign practices. Friedman said it best when he said, “My belief is that the voters in the city of Bend could see through that kind of campaign very easily and would be offended by it.” Even with a heavy coat of sludge, the message is crystal clear. Chick’s agenda is not an agenda with Bend’s best interests at heart. We need a strong leader with vision and that person is Bill Friedman.
It’s easy to lose sight of Wyvetta Wilson, the other candidate running for the Seat 6 Position. A clear minded woman with enough vision and more experience than Chick, but not a strong enough leader for Bend. Wilson said when asked about the race, “If I don’t win, so what. It will be fun.” This isn’t a game. These are real people running for an important seat on the Bend City Council, a seat that can and will effect the lives of thousands of Bend residents. Wilson takes the role a tad too lightly, but at least she’s willing to help clear out the mud slinging with her chants of “Keep it clean, please,” at the last debate.
Mark Capell has been slinging some pretty thick mud towards Derek Stevens in the race for Position 5 seat. "I have a concern about the judgment of my opponent, who on a Net chat room sexually harassed a young lady, then dismissed it as ‘fluff' to The Bulletin," Capell said. Fluff or not, do we really want someone sitting in on city meetings who may be daydreaming instead about an online conversation when he should be making important decisions about Bend’s future? Capell brought up a valid point and also shares a strong vision for Juniper Ridge where Stevens wants to rehash old issues and has strong doubts about a university in Bend. Bend is growing by leaps and bounds. We need strong leaders that will fight for the future of our children, making the university a reality. We don’t need doubtful council members like Stevens on board.
The uncontested candidate, Chris Telfer is clean for the time being. Rarely does mud land on her. Telfer is a strong leader, but often thought of as the minority in the council. "That is what I bring to council," Telfer said. "That is what is important, all the perspectives represented so the final decision is better thought out, a better representation of all of the citizens of Bend.” Though she is said to be polarizing to the Council to some degree, it is Tefler’s clear and honest opinions that oftentimes reflect the opinions and needs of the citizens of Bend. She is a good balance and another supporter of Juniper Ridge, which will bring an influx of dollars and jobs to Bend.
Bend is a rapidly growing city. We need strong leaders to carry us into 2007, to finish Juniper Ridge, increase affordable housing and make smart decisions that will effect thousands of good citizens. When you cast your ballot on November 7, project your mind into the future and make the best decision for Bend, for our children, for our future and hopefully by November 8, the mud will dry up.
And here is Yet Another Classic, by Blanche Evans, editor of RealtyTimes.com:
Realty Viewpoint: Weak Jobs, $100 Oil To Impact Home Sales In The Spring
by Blanche Evans
Two bits of news are worth mulling over as the real estate industry braces itself for an unpredictable spring selling season that could go either way. Energy costs are up and jobs are teetering.
Crude oil prices have hit the $100 mark for the first time, and have hovered near there since. That's more than twice the price of crude only five years ago. Heating oil prices will be higher almost immediately, and consumers will face $4 per gallon gas in less than two months. As consumers cut back on their disposable spending to pay for higher energy costs, the next thing to happen is job loss, and it's coming already.
A report from Automated Data Processing, Inc. suggests that private sector employers added only 40,000 jobs in December. Worse, the Labor Department reports that unemployment benefits are at their highest levels in two years.
It's more than contradictory -- manufacturers are losing jobs while services are adding.
A nation of consultants without customers can only last so long.
Everything from your cheap Chinese-labor goods to airline travel will cost more, and there's not much more room to cut in pricing. In the Wal-Martization of America, things are about as cheap as they can get, unless, of course, our CEOs' gigantic paychecks are reduced, and we know that's not going to happen.
When prices go up and paychecks disappear, people stop discretionary spending, down, especially when they're already at zero savings and thousands in debt to credit card companies.
The problem with that is that we're more reliant on imports, and with production, delivery and oversight costs certain to increase, we won't be buying foreign goods either.
Made in America is a thing of the past.
That means a recession and more job loss. Consumers will have to be wooed back to the mall, and the only way to do that is to make borrowing money to pay for stuff you don't really need more attractive.
The only possible outcome is that consumer interest rates will drop further by spring. You'll see zero financing on cars and on credit card teasers. Mortgage interest rates will also bottom, which is great for home buyers and refinancing homeowners.
The housing picture will be a tale of two cities. It will get worse for those impacted by job loss, but it will be great for those waiting for better homebuying conditions.
Lower home prices, high inventories, and low interest rates are the homebuyer's trinity.
Smart buyers should act now, before the speculators jump back in and run housing prices back up again.
Published: January 4, 2008
Huh? The World is going to hell in a handbasket and... We Should BUY?
About half this piece is 100% COMPLETE DELUSION, but even so, the conclusion is indicative of someone suffering from multiple-personality disorder.
Bookkeeping Services Licensed. Cascade Business Management ... Telfer Chris CPA 131 Northwest Greenwood Avenue Suite 207 Bend, OR 97701
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All this bullshit, even the guy who wrote the article that Homer refers to that Linda & Bill are involved in HOA's, but what about his sqeaky-clean chrissy pooh? Who works for the same outfit.
Let's get real here fuckers, Bend is about Condo's, and this isn't NEW.
What is amusing is that everybody at city-hall get a piece of the condo tax.
Trouble is a federal-prosecutor doesn't want to pay.
Let's get this straight,
Capell run's Knife-River, aka Hap-Taylor, which leases Pape equipment,
Everyone else at city-hall is parters with 'cascade bookkeeping' which handles the check-books for all the HOA condo reserve cash in the county.
Conflict of interest? Hell no, this is Bend.
The uncontested candidate, Chris Telfer is clean for the time being. Rarely does mud land on her. Telfer is a strong leader, but often thought of as the minority in the council. "That is what I bring to council," Telfer said. "That is what is important, all the perspectives represented so the final decision is better thought out, a better representation of all of the citizens of Bend.”
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Note above the BULL-WEEKLY has nothing but good things to say about chrissy, but never bothers to mention that SHE to is Cascade-Bookkeeping CPA.
Now, I had hoped to post about the unfolding MASSIVE CONFLICT OF INTEREST scenario with Bend's beloved mayor, and area HOA Fee Swindles, but I just don't know enough.
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Stick with the girls "chris telfer" & "linda johnson", Friedman is fucked, but he'll not crack, but his girls will.
The story will all unfold, but for now stick to his girls.
Especially Telfer as she has the most to lose, as she was being groomed by Hollern to be the next squeaky clean mayor.
You might wonder again, why old Hummel exited without losing his right to practice law in Oregon.
Throwing sludge is what Chick does best.
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Sounds like one of us. Perhaps what Bend needs is more sludge throwing, and less cock sucking, and brown nosing, and squandering taxpayer dollars.
Now it sounds like NW Crossing will get the only thing that might have a chance of filling up--apartments for the newly-defaulted former winners.
What a change in two years. From the lap of luxury, desirability, and superiority to...this. - tim
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Thanks tim, and as usual your the only one here that ever reads.
Yes, Mike Hollern going 100% apartment is a BIG story, but we know it will work, but remember ALL the BULLshit when they got approval for NWXC they called it 'smart growth', and it ends up being 'chicago tenement housing'. Well the growth part was correct.
I feel for all those POOR fuckers living there, also what a great fucking idea, to have the new high-school surrounded by apartments!
When we get a 3 month average below 6...
Make that a 12 month moving avg below 6 months inventory. THEN you can buy...
The Bend Living article was so off base it's amazing.
What the hell is Bend Living? Who owns it?
Anyway, if I was that far off in my assessments of the situation, I'd have to slink off the blogosphere with my tail between my legs.
That was just an embarrasing piece of work.
Meanwhile, is it true that Telfer, Friedman AND Johnson all are part of Cascade Bookkeeping?
That's cronyism of the most blatant sort, if true. How did that not get pointed out? Where's the media in this?
If I remember right, both Johnson and Telfer were originally APPOINTED to the council and later won elections? (Which as incumbants, is much easier....)
You guys are so negative. There's so much good news, if you know where to find it ....
"The state of Oregon has received national attention for its progressive approach to land use planning, which, with the help of an engaged citizenry, has contributed to some uniquely liveable and compact cities and towns, with bustling streets and walkable neighborhoods interwoven with restored natural areas. Even in fast-growing suburban areas, places like Orenco Station are much-studied and admired for their contributions to a new model of residential development that aims to diminish the influence of the private automobile by creating complete, walkable, and connected new communities with a mix of uses, housing types, parks, and schools.... http://www.terrain.org/unsprawl/18/
Welcome to Stepford, Oregon — what a blight on the planet! NWC gives me the creeps!
NWC's tagline is "You may never want to leave the neighborhood."
CREEPY!!
It reminds me the ominous line in the song Hotel California: "You can enter, but you can never leave."
Yeah -- people can buy a house there, but they can never sell it. Trapped forever in their Craftsman in Stepford-ville.
How could those morons have done this to Bend?
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
Followed by massive twin guitar solo by Don Felder and Joe Walsh that we've all heard too many times.
It's quiet out there........too quiet.
>>It's quiet out there........too quiet.
That's because Bend has entered its "I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream" phase.
What the hell is Bend Living? Who owns it?
Bend native Kiki Cutter
Meanwhile, is it true that Telfer, Friedman AND Johnson all are part of Cascade Bookkeeping?
Of course not, that's just buster's BS.
Bill Friedman is currently Vice-President and co-owner with his wife, Shoshana, of Cascade Bookkeeping.
Linda Johnson is Co-owner of Cascade Business Group in Bend.
Chris Telfer is a certified public accountant with her own practice in Bend.
Re: Telfer/Johnson/Freidman
This is all getting a little wierd.
Bend Weekly:Chick is Director of the COBA. And Chick has the gall to scrutinize Friedman’s business partnership with fellow councilor, Linda Johnson? The two council members are joint owners of Cascade Bookkeeping, Inc.
BULL:An article in The Bulletin on Oct. 21 described allegations of conflict of interest, posed by rival candidate Clint Chick, with regard to Bend Mayor Bill Friedman and city Councilor Linda Johnson being partners in Cascade Bookkeeping Inc.
What is the fucking truth around here? Some black shit going on.
City Club of Central Oregon:Bill Friedman and Linda S. Johnson (Cascades Bookkeeping)
So how did I get it in my head that Telfer bought into Cascade Bookkeeping?
Silly, silly me.
Yeah, and I meant to ask about Bend Weekly, not Bend Living. Who is behind Bend Weekly?
I could swear Telfer was recently added to Cascade Bookkeeping.
I don't think there is any doubt Johnson and Friedman are partners.
So how did I get it in my head that Telfer bought into Cascade Bookkeeping?
Because people keep posting bogus BS on this blog.
Yeah, and I meant to ask about Bend Weekly, not Bend Living. Who is behind Bend Weekly?
Bend Weekly
Richard Burton II, Publisher
61396 Sw Hwy 97, Ste 223
Bend OR 97702
Phone: 541-330-5886, 888-541-2363
Fax: 541-330-5669
Web site: www.bendweekly.com
I could swear Telfer was recently added to Cascade Bookkeeping.
No, Chris has her own business providing services to non-profits. It's located just a few blocks from Pegasus so you can walk over and check it out.
Anser
Chris Telfer, CPA
131 NW Hawthorne Ave, Suite 101
Bend OR 97701
Phone: 541-389-3310
Fax: 541-389-3301
Web site: www.empoweringthepurpose.com
Two news reports of interest:
1. http://ml-implode.com/staticnews/2008-01-08_RecessionintheUShasarrived.html
2. http://www.targetmarketingmag.com/bcs/story/story.bsp?sid=85665&var=story
Excerpt -- In 2000, Standard & Poor decreed that the “piggyback” mortgage was okay—that borrowers who took out a second mortgage to make a down payment on the first mortgage were no more likely to default than anyone else. It was a deeply flawed theory that greedy lenders glommed onto and started making mortgage loans at usurious interest rates to people with insufficient income or net worth to keep up the payments. The borrowers fell into three categories:
* Dumb consumers that did not understand what they were getting into.
* Greedy investors who bet property values would rise, enabling them to collect rent from tenants while they waited to flip the property and make a fat profit.
* Out-and-out crooks committing naked fraud.
Of course not, that's just buster's BS.
*
Nope, all the stuff about 'cascade bookkeeping' all originated from brucy-pooh, just go back two blogs and you'll see it all orginated from 'bruce'.
Telfer Chris CPA 131 Northwest Greenwood Avenue Suite 207 Bend, OR 97701
So how did I get it in my head that Telfer bought into Cascade Bookkeeping?
Silly, silly me. - bruce
*
I think the issue here is nobody ever reads anything, except timmy, there's not built-in shit detector, and thus unstantiated rumors can stand for weeks.
The good point about all this confusion of Chris Telfer versus Linda Johnson, is that everybody is like the last supper saying I don't know "cascade bookkeeping", I have no association with them.
The federal prosecutor at the INNof7th board is going to file charges against Friedman, they're just waiting for the books. Linda and Bill must be sweating bullets. I really do believe something will happen to those 'books'.
The Source is supposedly working with the INNof7th new board on a story for the past month. Word is its going to do be a doozy, and heads will roll. More resignations will follow. Certainly Friedman and Johnson will walk the plank, and perhaps Capell with his proximity to Hap-Taylor/Pape.
Poltical winds are about change.
The following is old news to us, but somebody decided it was news.
***
Housing slump hits Bend city government
Associated Press - January 8, 2008 1:45 PM ET
BEND, Ore. (AP) - A sharp drop in home construction is squeezing a Bend city government that gets much of its funding from building permits and inspection fees.
The Central Oregon city spent several years as 1 of the hottest real estate markets in the nation. But in November, the city issued permits for fewer than 70 new homes, apartments and condos. That's roughly a third of the number for the same period in 2005.
Cities and counties across America are suffering from the loss of property tax revenues due to the drop in home values. But the decline in revenues from lack of construction is also having an effect.
In December, the city gave layoff notices to six planners.
The fire department will leave two jobs vacant and the city won't be able to buy eleven new police cruisers as planned and will hold off on filling five positions.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed
NWC's tagline is "You may never want to leave the neighborhood."
CREEPY!!
*
With the new 900 unit low income apartment complex coming in soon, the NWX will be anything but quiet, the early buyers will relish these days, as tons of poor will be running through their streets to the highschool.
Prices in NWX will drop like a rock, a year ago I was predicting that mexicans would be selling tacos in the alleys out of the garages, I now predict it will come sooner.
Buster - If you're referring to the Discovery Park Lodge of NWC, its a 55 or older Low Income housing deal. Is there an additional project on the horizon? If it's 55+, it keeps some of the riff-raff out....just dirty old men roaming the streets in Little Rascals.
Prices in NWX will drop like a rock, a year ago I was predicting that mexicans would be selling tacos in the alleys out of the garages, I now predict it will come sooner.
Buster continues to get further and further out of touch with reality!
>>just dirty old men roaming the streets
That's a relief.
Purchased 1.3 acres for Discovery Park Lodge, a to-be-built 53 unit
affordable senior independent living apartment building in Bend,
OR. Construction scheduled to commence in spring 2008
*
Disco is 53, the new one that just got approval is 900,
http://www.discoveryparklodge.com/
*
The above place is going to be up by the coffee shop, 'sage empty cafe'.
The new 900 unit place is going to be down by Sunset Park, on the eastern side of the currently built NWXC.
Like timmy said, and said it well, they couldn't sell homes, so they sold condos, and they couldn't sell condo's so they so sold apartments, and they couldn't sell apts, so they're going after federal dollars, "low income' housing, best cash flow around.
On the subject of the INNof7th MTN, all vendors have been told not to accept checks, the whole place is being shutdown.
The restaurant will continue as that is leased and self-sufficient, but the new board, is course only paying the HOA's to their bank-account, and word is the old board's bank account is out of cash.
The squeeze is on, there is no negotiation, as money talks and bullshit walks.
Still waiting for Friedman to present those books, and everyone is looking for a 'ridgewater', and when the find it, Friedman better resign quick, and take all his gal-pals packing, ...
This blogsite continues to suck, more & more.
Homer, please kill this bitch, and get on with your life.
This blogsite continues to suck, more & more.
Homer, please kill this bitch, and get on with your life.
Good advice, but everyone should know by now, I never heed good advice.
"On the subject of the INNof7th MTN, all vendors have been told not to accept checks, the whole place is being shutdown."
------------
Before Pape's bought into this POS, the place went bancrupt twice. The owners called the old management (Winkenwerder) a bunch of amature cat herders, since the owners behaved like a bunch of cats. The place has been shut down before... nothing new to that.
"The restaurant will continue as that is leased and self-sufficient, but the new board, is course only paying the HOA's to their bank-account, and word is the old board's bank account is out of cash."
--------------
The current Inn management is doing a good job of managing the Seasons and snack shop, and the rental pool. Leave them alone, and they will keep the lights on. The current fight is between a group of owners who don't want to pay Pape's the $5+ Million they put into the place.
"The squeeze is on, there is no negotiation, as money talks and bullshit walks."
-------------
The fight will get even hotter. Pape has a signed loan agreement with the HOA for his millions. What will the new board and the idiot lawyer (who owns a 1/6th share of a small condo, big whoop! $60K is cat scratch) do when the Pape's call their loan (for immeadiate payment)?
Pape's will have a lien against all privately owned condos until his loan is paid off... Nobody will be able to anything until the lien is removed.
"Still waiting for Friedman to present those books, and everyone is looking for a 'ridgewater', and when the find it, Friedman better resign quick, and take all his gal-pals packing, ..."
--------------
Friedman is just a small time book keeper. The Pape's will bring in their big legal hires.
The new board will have to hire legal help, who will lose the fight to attempt to make Pape's eat their $5+ Million improvements. The previous board has signed legally binding agreements with Pape's... what judge is going to toss that out?
And the new board has no answer on how much to assess the owners. The condos are older than dirt, and twice as dirty.
That place needs major work. Major work costs major bucks. The new board has no plan for any improvements
This blogsite continues to suck, more & more.
Homer, please kill this bitch, and get on with your life.
Good advice, but everyone should know by now, I never heed good advice.
===============
Besides, since you are just a loser renter, this blog IS your life. Please keep it up. It is fun entertainment laughing at losers.
>> Besides, since you are just a loser renter, this blog IS your life. Please keep it up. It is fun entertainment laughing at losers.
------------------
From someone who's still in the ANGER stage of this oh-so-painful process.
Dude, go sell us losers some houses and quit hanging out here.....oh, yeah.....right. Nothing better to do.
Friedman is just a small time book keeper. The Pape's will bring in their big legal hires.
*
1) The new board has retained the #1 pit-bull attorneys in Oregon.
2) Friedman is a loser, but he is also the Bend Mayor, and also controls the HOA collection for most of Bend, and has a lot too lose.
3.) The little 1/6 owner from Chicago, a retired federal prosecutor has take a special interest in Friedman.
4.) The new board has just begun developing a plan to improve the condo's.
5.) The court is where everything will be settled, this forum is bullshit, but its still fun to talk shit. To date there is no injunction, because there was no imminent harm to anyone. If Pape doesn't recognize the new board pronto, this thing will go to work, either way Friedman is out, and his books will be gone over with a fine tooth comb. Freidman is fucked, resignation is imminient. How do you spell 'ridgewater'.
6.) Arrow-wood ( nestled between INN7 & Widgi ), intends to use INN7 amenitys, and so does 'tetherow', new board just sent letters to each telling them it isn't going to happen. This is BIG because it means that Tetherow now needs to borrow another $10M to put in a urine-pool, ... and other amenitys to make it a resort.
7.) Yes, Pape will try to get his $6M, but the owner's are only going to pay for their siding and roof. They're not going to pay for Pape's bad investment.
8.) Given that all vendor have been notified that old-board no longer represents the INN7 everything is going to shut-down @INN7 pronto.
***
Summary,
It's over the victims will be ...
Arrow-wood ( baufhoer, lietz,... ), forest land, requires 'resort amenitys', which they don't have arrow-wood is now toast.
Tetherow requires amenity access to INN7, it is now toast, Bauhofer&friends can no longer borrow money to feed this pig.
Friedman and gal-pals are going to be microscopically analyzed.
****
There is NO way in hell that Pape can beat the new owners legal team. These are the meanest toughest junk-yard dog 'pit-bull' attorneys around, and Pape is small fry. The new board member that is a retired federal prosecutor from Chicago, specialized in this type of fraud.
The results ... INN7 deep shit, Arrow-Wood deep shit, Tethrow Deep-Shit, ... Homer time to add more names to your tombstone.
Pape's will have a lien against all privately owned condos until his loan is paid off... Nobody will be able to anything until the lien is removed.
*
The only reason the court didn't file an injunction, is that they wanted to give the party's time to settle. Which as we all know, would be in everyone's interest.
The new board has canceled the liens. The old board doesn't recognize the new board, the new board doesn't recognize the old board. The new board says they won majority, Mayor Friedman says they didn't.
If Pape doesn't settle quickly, then this mess will go to Deschutes County Court, and the new board will file an injunction.
Remember the new board controls the condo HOA fee's, the old board no longer has a check-book with a positive balance, Freidman no longer has any books to bake. The new board will be cutting the checks to the providers of service.
Smart folks wouldn't spend $100's of thousands on attorneys, but generally when a real estate bust takes place this is how they end.
It's a good bet for Pape, if he doesn't fight then he doesn't get his $7M ( or $6M ), so paying for lawyers is worth the bet, then there are all the interested party's. Like Bauhofer, Lietz, Hollern, Tetherow-Owners, Arrow-Wood owners, ...
All the 'contracts' that the old board signed were from the loaded all board by Pape & Bauhofer, the new board has a good argument in court, that these 'contracts' were not in their interest. I really think it will be easy to void everything, once its clear how Pape gained control of the board.
***
Homer, likes to say that Juniper-Ridge gives us a look at the under-belly of city-hall. Well INN7 is giving us a look at the under belly of Knife-River, Pape, Hollern, Capell, & Friedman.
***
The new board will win, Friedman will resign, and his business will be subject scrutiny.
Pape doesn't have the moral high-ground. Pape doesn't have the best legal team.
In order to win, Pape can't argue the law, as he has violated Oregon Condo Law. He can't argue the facts, because they're against him. Thus he can only attack his opponent.
In order for the new board to win, they just need to go before the court with the facts, and obtain an injunction. Demand the Friedman Books, and figure out where the millions of HOA fee's during the last 3-4 years went, and recover them, and use them to reside, and re-roof the condo's. Note by Oregon Law this money should have been going to a reserve fund.
From someone who's still in the ANGER stage of this oh-so-painful process.
Dude, go sell us losers some houses and quit hanging out here.....oh, yeah.....right. Nothing better to do.
That there is flippin sweet!
But you're right, I'm pretty angry.
Angry that instead of blowing $3K/mo. on the house I'm renting, I blow $1K, and put the rest in the bank, so I can buy your shit shack in 5 years after you've lost EVERYTHING.
Yeah, I'm real angry about that.
>> From someone who's still in the ANGER stage of this oh-so-painful process.
Dude, go sell us losers some houses and quit hanging out here.....oh, yeah.....right. Nothing better to do.
---------------------
Homey, this was a comment to the OP, not you. But a good synopsis of the realities nonetheless!
Dude, go sell us losers some houses and quit hanging out here.....oh, yeah.....right. Nothing better to do.
It's nuggets like that, that keep me coming back to this piece of shit blog.
ps. Hey Realtor, when you are done with the anger phase and move on to acceptance, I'll pay you cash for your rolex. I'm sure I'll be competitive with Bend Pawn & Trading....
Homer,
How come Columbia Air, isn't on your tombstone??
I mean they essentially died an unpleasant death.
How come Columbia Air, isn't on your tombstone??
I mean they essentially died an unpleasant death.
No, man! Haven't you heard? That whole unpleasant "bankruptcy" mess has been cleaned up & repackaged via.... MARKETING!
It's now actually GOOD that Columbia went bust! MORE JOBS, MORE MONEY, MORE BUILDING, MORE EVERYTHING!
Guaranteed, that is going to be the same coverage in The Bulletin that the wave of foreclosures & BK's that are about to overwhelm this place will get.
Guaranteed.
Homey, this was a comment to the OP, not you. But a good synopsis of the realities nonetheless!
I said "Flippin sweet!"
And I repeat:
FLIPPIN SWEET!
Re: To date there is no injunction, because there was no imminent harm to anyone. If Pape doesn't recognize the new board pronto, this thing will go to work, either way Friedman is out, and his books will be gone over with a fine tooth comb.
I've been told the books have been subpoenaed, and Freidman, et al are fighting it. Most HOA agreements have clauses about inspection of financial records, so it's only a matter of time.
From the Eemrgency Board Minutes:
Plaintiffs subpoenaed Cascade Bookkeeping for various financial and contractual information of the Inn inclusive of those associated with Arrowood development.
Re:
Remember the new board controls the condo HOA fee's
For 30 days all fees are still going to Cascade, but with much more oversight. From the minutes linked above:
Motion Peter Smith, second, second Charles Cook (Passed 8-0)
Termination of Bill Friedman together and along with Cascade Bookkeeping as General Manager. Termination of Bill Friedman together and along with Cascade Bookkeeping as bookkeeper with a thirty-day period for the transition of documentation and responsibilities to another service provider(s).
Discussion of replacement and the preference for a thirty-day period to transition all financial information and related documents. Susan Kimes, CPA to perform bookkeeping responsibilities free gratis until a new service provider is sourced. During the thirty day transition period owners should remit all payments for dues and other related fees to Cascade Bookkeeping. Moving forward the role of the Inn’s General Manager and that of the bookkeeping function performed by separate entities/individuals.
====+====
Area bank faces loss of $27.8 million
Real estate - West Coast Bancorp, hit by a residential construction loan program gone awry, feels housing market fallout
Thursday, January 10, 2008
JEFF MANNING
The Oregonian
West Coast Bancorp disclosed Wednesday it expects $27.8 million in losses from a residential construction loan program gone bad.
The Lake Oswego bank's losses are the latest evidence that collateral damage from the real estate slowdown, while less severe in Portland than in most of the country, is spreading beyond individual homeowners, builders and developers. After five years of boom times, banks and other lenders are experiencing their share of hiccups, the vast majority of them real estate-related, with loans in Portland and the Northwest.
West Coast, with $2.5 billion in assets, said it will record a $30 million provision for loan losses for the fourth quarter of 2007. As a result, it expects to lose 46 to 50 cents a share in its fourth quarter. The bank will announce it year-end results next week.
Other area banks are also anticipating increasing trouble in their loan portfolios.
Cascade Bancorp, parent of Bend-based Bank of the Cascades, announced last week that it will take a loan loss provision of $7.5 million for the fourth quarter and nearly doubled its non-performing assets largely because of weakness in the real estate market.
Sterling Savings of Spokane disclosed in late December that it expects to take a $13 million provision for bad loans and is closely monitoring its residential construction loan portfolio.
Portland-based Umpqua Bank increased its provision for loan losses to $20.4 million in the third quarter, up from $2.4 million a year earlier.
Seattle-based Washington Mutual, the nation's seventh-largest lender, has huge exposure to the troubled housing sector. It increased its loan loss provisions nearly six-fold in the third quarter to $967 million.
"The softness in our real estate markets has worsened in the past quarter, putting increased pressure on cash flows of developers and builders of new homes and subdivisions," said Patricia Moss, Cascade chief executive officer.
Officials at all the banks voiced confidence that their respective problem loans issues remain relatively small and under control. Robert Sznewajs, West Coast CEO, said the just-announced financial hit is not "indicative of any broader credit concerns within the remainder of our loan portfolio."
The vast majority of West Coast's anticipated losses came out of its so-called "two-step" residential construction loan program. Originated in 2002, two-step loans were made to individuals who wanted to build a house.
It worked like this:
West Coast made the initial construction loan. The borrower would then go to another lender for the second-step -- usually a traditional mortgage loan -- allowing them to pay off the loan from West Coast.
As the region's housing market reached a fevered pitch in 2005, so did West Coast's two-step loan portfolio, reaching $263 million by the end of last year. Ultimately, the portfolio balance could grow higher, as an additional $79 million in two-step commitments have yet to be used by borrowers.
But delinquencies spiked in 2007. The stall in home sales resulted in a glut of unsold homes, which put downward pressure on housing values.
The nationwide mortgage crisis, which grew out of rising defaults on subprime loans to borrowers with troubled credit histories, also hurt West Coast, as it explained in its third-quarter report. As mortgage lenders went out of business or significantly tightened lending standards, it became much more difficult for West Coast's two-step borrowers to get the second loan needed to pay off West Coast's construction loan.
As of Sept. 30, West Coast's delinquencies had jumped to $9.9 million, mostly from the two-step program. That number had more than tripled from the beginning of the year.
The bank realized by the middle of 2007 that it had a problem, and it became considerably more selective about its loan candidates. But it wasn't enough. The bank opted to discontinue the program altogether in October.
The $30 million provision for losses marks an enormous increase. In 2006, the bank's provision for loan losses was $2.7 million.
"While the Company took steps to strengthen the underwriting of two-step residential construction loans in the second and third quarters of 2007, the original underwriting criteria did not sufficiently anticipate the sudden and dramatic shift in market conditions," Sznewajs said.
West Coast stock fell more than 15 percent on Wednesday closing at $13.63 per share.
From LA Times:
Bankruptcy fears deepen at lender
Countrywide discloses rising delinquencies and foreclosures. Its stock falls to $5.12 as investors continue to flee.
Countrywide Financial Corp.'s future was called into question again Wednesday after it reported another rise in loan delinquencies and foreclosures, fueling fresh speculation that the company was headed toward bankruptcy.
The nation's biggest mortgage lender was "withering" and "might falter if it does not receive an infusion of at least $4 billion within the next couple of weeks," said Egan-Jones Ratings Co., an advisor to pension funds and other big investors.
eiss Research, which rates the condition of lenders, said the Calabasas company "is on a collision course with bankruptcy," adding that it "exhausted many of its extraordinary financing options last year and is ill-prepared for the rising mortgage defaults and home foreclosures that are widely expected this year."
Countrywide did not respond to a request for comment. As bankruptcy rumors swept the financial markets Tuesday, it issued a general denial that it was near collapse.
Yet the stock fell as low as $4.43 on Wednesday, before rebounding to close down 35 cents at $5.12, an 11-year low. The shares had lost 28% on Tuesday.
Weiss said Countrywide borrowers had little to fear if the company should fail, noting that its loan servicing business was valuable and would continue on even in bankruptcy. But it said anyone negotiating a new loan should be cautious because "that process could easily be disrupted."
Speculation about Countrywide's future echoes concerns first raised last summer, when funding dried up from the Wall Street firms that had provided money for the company to make loans. Those same firms also had been big buyers of Countrywide's mortgages as fodder for debt securities sold to investors.
Countrywide squeaked through that crisis by drawing down a huge emergency bank credit line, getting a $2-billion investment from Bank of America Corp. and accelerating a plan to beef up deposits at its Countrywide Bank subsidiary, enabling it to fund all its own loans.
That tactic has generated results. The bank's retail deposits increased $7.7 billion in the fourth quarter to $33 billion. But it has been achieved at high cost.
Countrywide is offering a 5.45% annualized yield on three-month, $10,000 certificates of deposit, the highest in the U.S. and far above the national average yield of 3%, according to Informa Research Services.
On Wednesday, some customers at Countrywide Bank's Glendale branch said they were concerned and closely following the news, trying to determine whether the favorable terms offered were worth the risk.
Fred Campi of Silver Lake decided it wasn't. He was at the bank to withdraw four certificates of deposit, cashing out a total of $60,000.
Countrywide's individual accounts are federally insured for up to $100,000. But Campi, an administrative aide at Los Angeles City College, said he didn't want to risk losing access to his funds, even temporarily.
"I don't know if it's worth the crapshoot," Campi said. "If six months from now they're back on their feet, I'll be back."
Another customer, retired lawyer Rico Fabian, said he was sticking by the lender for now. But he asked the bank's associates detailed questions about whether his money would be safe as he made a deposit.
"I'm watching the news carefully. If I find a better investment option, I'll move my money, but they're offering good fixed annuities," the 75-year-old Los Angeles man said.
Pierre Habis, head of retail deposits at Countrywide Bank, said it had continued to attract new deposits this week despite the latest bankruptcy rumors.
The cash inflows have so greatly exceeded expectations, he said, that the bank planned to begin trimming its CD rates in the next week.
If Countrywide lowers CD rates, that could help damp concerns that the company is facing a funding crisis.
Countrywide's stock slump on Wednesday, meanwhile, appeared to be triggered by the release of its December lending summary.
Countrywide said the delinquency rate for the $1.5 trillion in mortgages it services had risen to 7.2% at the end of 2007, up from 4.6% a year earlier and 6.5% at the end of November.
The number of loans in foreclosure more than doubled from a year earlier, to 1.44% of 9 million loans the company services.
Like many mortgage lenders, Countrywide has been hit hard by defaults on high-risk loans made to people with weak credit. The company said in a statement that it was making progress in its efforts to focus on traditional loans and noted that its new loans were slightly higher in December than in November, ahead of its own forecasts.
Analyst Frederick Cannon said Countrywide's latest lending report contained an ominous sign -- that the average size of foreclosed loans was on the rise as well.
That shows that the credit decay was spreading from sub-prime customers to borrowers with good credit scores and that dud loans in high-priced housing markets -- especially California -- were taking a heavier toll on Countrywide, said Cannon, of banking industry specialist Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
Yet on Wall Street, many analysts who follow the company continue to expect it to turn a substantial profit this year. The mean 2008 earnings estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is $1.66 a share.
Most of those same analysts, however, were blindsided by the mortgage debacle. As recently as mid-August, they expected Countrywide to earn $2.80 a share in 2007. Now the mean estimate is for a loss of 76 cents a share for 2007.
"The question from here is whether we will see some moderation in the growth of delinquencies and foreclosures in the next couple of months," said Robert Napoli, an analyst with Piper Jaffray & Co. "If we do, the market for their stock may stabilize somewhat."
Federal regulators, meanwhile, are closely monitoring the status of Countrywide and other large thrifts, said William Ruberry, spokesman for the Office of Thrift Supervision.
Remember the new board controls the condo HOA fee's
*
Bruce Pussy, the 'owners' are the new board, and thirty days has almost passed, SOON CASCADE (PAPE) will have NO CASH flow.
That was the fucking point. All suppliers and vendors associated with INN7 have been contacted and told, that if you want 'payment', then work with the new board.
The POINT bruce pussy is its over, for Pape. It's over for Friedman.
Soon there will be a court hearing and the judge will force Friedman to hand-over the books to the new board. This is when the shit will hit the fan. Unless something happens to those books.
Bruce Cunt Has NO fucking credibility here, remember she's the one that told us that Cascade Bookkeeping was 'Chris Telfer'.
"Relatively low cost of doing business" refers to CO's chronically depressed wages. EDCO actually touts our depressed wages on its website and elsewhere.
Chris Telfer is not a business partner of Bill Friedman's. She has her own bookkeeping and accounting firm.
"These "flowery" pieces, jammed packed with lies and ludicrious headlines, make me wonder if there is not ENORMOUS pressure being put on the Bulletin to produce ALL IS WELL IN CENTRAL OREGON news pieces."
I don't think any enormous pressure is needed. The Bullshittin has a strong bias in favor of fluffy features and "happy talk" news, and always tries to put a "positive" spin on everything (except when it embarks on a vendetta against somebody, but that's different). I suspect this is based on market research that tells them happy talk and fluff are what the readers want.
Oh Bruce, looks like you'll have to do some more back flips to win back BendBust's fickle fickle love!
Re:Oh Bruce, looks like you'll have to do some more back flips to win back BendBust's fickle fickle love!
I know. I just wish Anonymouse wouldn't start drinking before noon, as he seems to have anger issues.
I hereby genuflect before all, admitting my heinous mistake on thinking Telfer was part of the Cascade Bookkeeping house of cards.
Seeing as Telfer is the only one that seems to have some financial sense on the CC, I should have known better.
Buster, put that Astroglide away now!
mmmmmmm, astroglide.........
Anonymous dartagnan said...
Chris Telfer is not a business partner of Bill Friedman's. She has her own bookkeeping and accounting firm.
*
There we have it, confirmed by 'dart'.
There we have it, confirmed by 'dart'.
----------
Rhymes with FART.
But dart smells much worse.
Rhymes with FART.
But dart smells much worse.
------------
'Dart' is the father, of Bruce Pussy's "hercules" cave dwarf wife. It's a small world, but its Bend.
They say that Gene's don't matter!
Another sign of a coming recession:
"NEW YORK - AT&T Inc.'s shares tumbled Tuesday afternoon after Chairman and Chief Executive Randall Stephenson said the telecom carrier is experiencing some slowdown in its consumer business segments.
Speaking at Citi's Entertainment, Media and Telecom Conference, Stephenson said the bulk of the weakness is coming from service disconnections due to nonpayment of its access lines and home broadband services."
We have a long way to fall, ...
$360000 Brasada Ranch Lot #91
Did anyone just see this on craigslist??
I mean 1/2 acre for $360k, in a siberian desert where all the acreage could have been bought for that amount ten years!!!!!!!
This worthless Bend desert land, I wonder what they paid for this??
$360000 Brasada Ranch Lot #91
All these amateurs should learn from Brasada Ranch, who duped their buyers Big Time. They built Big Mo, "pre-sold" a shitload, created a frenzy... and probably made more selling 5% of their lots than they paid for the whole mess. It's all gravy from here on out for Jeld Wen.
Butt dart smells much worse.
------------
'Dart' is the father, of Bruce Pussy's "hercules" cave dwarf wife. It's a small world, but its Bend.
>>>
I can't imagine what it might smell like. What could smell worse?
No wonder bruce goes on about KY-Jelly, this family probably uses it like everyone else uses salt and pepper.
<<<
The 'City Council Race or Mud Match? ' article had some pretty thin logic, I thought. Campaign contributions are legal or else they couldn't be done. Meanwhile, Linda Johnson's 'business' is something that benefits her personal pocketbook directly. That's the real difference.
IHTBYB, that was another classic blog post. ROFL. I've read a lot of your work and pored over the comments, but still I wonder how it benefits you to reduce inventory.
Are you willing to comment about your holdings or business goals? Without that info, it doesn't add up that you're trying to help Bend homeowners.
As for me: my girlfriend owns a 2600 ft^2 house in the SW. I think it's a great place, though on a tiny lot. For her sake, I hope it's not a piece of shit like you've been saying. Anyway she has a stable renter and a flaky property manager.
My current feeling is that since macro conditions drive the boom and the bust, it's better for homeowners if inventory piles up. That represents load on the economy, which the elites tell us is strong.
If that is the case, the pinch will focus on realtors until the macro conditions undergo a definitive change. For the duration, the strength of the overall economy carries the weight of the increased inventory. During that time buyers and sellers will simply have to go without actual deals.
And so we wait, and will keep waiting.
In the meantime, keep up the great research and comments. It is vital to monitoring the evolution of Bend.
And to readers: we must learn to detect and compensate for the personal bias of the writer.
7.1. The intensification of armaments, the increase of police forces - are all essential... there should be in all the States of the world, besides ourselves, only the masses of the proletariat, a few millionaires devoted to our interests, police and soldiers.
7.2. Throughout Europe... we must create ferments, discords and hostility... we must use great cunning... during negotiations... we shall keep... the mask of honesty... In this way... the Goyim... will still continue to accept us as the... saviours...
7.5. We must compel the governments of the GOYIM to take action in the direction favored by our widely conceived plan... by what we shall represent as public opinion, secretly promoted by us through the means... of the press, which, with a few exceptions that may be disregarded, is already entirely in our hands.
15.4. We shall create... free masonic lodges... the members... will be almost all the agents of international and national police... the police is in a position... to use its own particular measures with the insubordinate...
15.5. People who... enter into secret societies are... mostly light-minded, with whom we shall have no difficulty... but if there should arise in its midst a plot, then at the head of that plot will be no other than one of our most trusted servants...
15.6. The GOYIM enter the lodges... in the hope... to get a nibble at the public pie... they thirst for the emotion of success and applause, of which we are... generous...
15.7. To bring them to such a pitch of stupid blindness is it not a proof of the degree to which the mind of the Goyim is undeveloped in comparison with our mind?
15.8. We have not counted the victims of the GOY cattle... but for that we have given them such a position on the earth as they could not even have dreamed of...
huh?
what wuz that crap?
Are you willing to comment about your holdings or business goals? Without that info, it doesn't add up that you're trying to help Bend homeowners.
I'm neither trying to help or harm anyone... I just don't think that's possible. I ~think~ I can give people a much clearer & less biased view of what is happening in Bend RE, that they certainly are not getting from local mainstream media. I am trying to mitigate the institutionalized spin that is firmly entrenched in this place.
I don't really benefit from any sort of collapse in Bend RE, and do not expect to own here ever, because I will ONLY buy when it is very compelling from a personal finance standpoint, which I doubt will happen in any relevant time period. Bend will literally have to collapse overnight for me to buy. I can buy today... but I won't because it is financial suicide. I like fattening my bank account every paycheck, not some mortgage company.
I have to dispute the idea that MY own holdings somehow shed light on my motivations. I don't really have any motivations for "moving the market" because as I've said many times, I think that's impossible. This thing will collapse of its own accord. But if it helps you, I'm largely in cash.
In fact, the point of this blog was to air views regarding real estate that are not HEAVILY influenced by some media agenda. Maybe there are people with some pre-determined agenda posting on here, but they will be thrown into the pot with everyone else. ALL views are aired here, from the ludicrous to well-spoken, and all in between.
I'm sick of being SOLD THE NEWS. Tell me the news, STOP selling me a condo, STOP printing RE PR, stop the BULLSHIT, stop the SPIN.
If Bend media would stop spinning for the benefit of a chosen few, this blog would probably go away due to lack of interest.
Thanks for replying to me. My issue is that you seem to be saying you have no motive to see housing prices fall, and yet at the same time you say you'll only buy when it's very compelling, i.e. you'll want to buy at that time. It seems clear that ultimately, this is your motive -- to the extent it exists.
Meanwhile you're expending such tremendous creative efforts to build and maintain this blog. MBAs and the like are not known for altruism since that is not the purpose of the incorporated entity. If you were a mere commenter on this blog, like me, you'd not seem to have a particular interest in seeing inventory fall, but in light of your clear leadership on the issue, I still think it's a common sense conclusion your personal holdings and strategy is key to understanding your work.
Occam's razor, as it were.
I think you're over analyzing the eminant Dr. Doh. You must be a newbie to central oregon. The real estate spin in this town is nauseating and has ruined Bend, and suckered a lot of people into "investing" in Bend real estate. I think many of us who have been here any length of time smelled shit. Bend Economy Man smelled the shit first and wrote about it on his blog, and many of us realized how deep the BS was getting. My feeling is that yellowbeard hasn't been in Bend very long. The shit is just beginning to hit the fan in central oregon and newbies are going to be shocked at how rough things are gonna get here. Things are even getting pretty bearish on bendbb's blog. Paul doh is just telling it like it is.
you seem to be saying you have no motive to see housing prices fall
Actually, I said that the trumping issue, is that I do not have the ability to move prices.
you'll only buy when it's very compelling
This has always been true, bubble or not.
It seems clear that ultimately, this is your motive
What seems clear?
you're expending such tremendous creative efforts to build and maintain this blog
Meanwhile you're expending such tremendous creative efforts to build and maintain this blog.
It was provided free of charge by Google.
MBAs and the like are not known for altruism...
Are you for lynching blacks?
in light of your clear leadership on the issue,
You haven't been here long have you?
I still think it's a common sense conclusion your personal holdings and strategy is key to understanding your work.
Woof. That's a leap that is so strange it will almost NEVER make sense. Do you call up the reporter for every business story & ask them what their investments are?
If homes prices fall enough here, I'd like to buy. If they don't, no biggie, I just won't buy. Renting is very, very close to buying in an experiential way & I have no problem renting for quite awhile.
If prices NEVER go down here, Oh well. I'll just keep renting on the cheap here, and pocketing the difference.
Trying to pin some sort of motive on me is fine, go ahead. I just think it's ridiculous. This thing is more about education & spin-killing, than "moving markets". That's just weird.
You can only move markets with spin when it's participants are willing idiots.
Read this carefully. The banks are starting to sue the developers to get their money back.
***
A little summary of our woes on oregonlive.com today
Bust turns developers' dreams to dust
...Developers without deep pockets are struggling to stay in business. Others have folded or lost property to foreclosure. In their wake, suppliers, excavators and street pavers try to collect millions in unpaid bills...
...St. Helens-based Decal Custom Homes, an active Portland-area builder, is scrambling to remain afloat amid dozens of creditors clamoring for money. Bank of America, for example, sued Decal and its principals in November, seeking repayment of $8.2 million...
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian
/index.ssf?/base/news/12001209227430.
xml&coll=7
I nearly laughed my ass off "Homer (IHTBYB) our leader".
Shit, homer spends an hour a week, posting pic's of fat women, and writing misogynist stuff for this site, posts new dribble every Sunday AM, and then he's done for the week.
This is 'our leader'?
One thing is clear, BENDBB gets better postings of original source info, because a few 'real' realtors hangout there. Nobody on BB2 is anything but a renter. They're not even in the game. If you look at all these blogs across the country, they're all the exact same, ran by renters, and majority occupied by renters.
In normal times a 'renter' is a loser. It's like paying he BOSSHOG for a mill-house, out of your salary, while the BOSSHOG owns your mill-house.
Freemen BUY their own homes always been this way. For Homer(IHTBYB) to say he's been here +5 yrs, and didn't buy a house, shows a fucking loser, and always has been a fucking loser. Even in our current recession, the prices will not go much lower than the 2002 low, but note, that is still +50% down from the 2006 high.
The renters (losers) need to feel good about being 'renters', so they write about how smart they were to stay out of the game.
In my opinion, Homer(IHTBYB) will never buy a house, nor the majority here at this blog or BENDBB because they're renters by definition. Besides, there are NO jobs in Bend, these folks aren't going to stay here.
I have been here over +40 years, and have seen several of these recessions come and go, and over the next two years Bend will become so undesirable for the cali-transplants that they'll move on. "Owners", have no choice, but "renters" by definition have no "roots".
Human nature to is poke fun at those below you. The success of this blog is poking fun at holier-than-thou Becky-Breeze crowd that ran Bend from 2002->2007. To laugh at this crowd and Bend City Hall & Staff is whole point.
To suggest that Homer (IHTBYB) will profit from any of this is BULLSHIT. Homer could have gotten a deal when he arrived and didn't because he's a fucking renter. By the time there are 2002 deals, homer will not get a loan, nor have an income to get a loan.
BB2 is like high school, and Randy Sebastian is a football captain, and Becky-Breeze is the home-coming queen. Most of our Bend folks were elite preppy's, and now they're all taking a fall, and the NERDS love it.
99% of those here that spend time on computers are NERDS. Pure & Simple its the oldest story. The nerds get to watch the holier-than-thou crowd fall on their face.
That's it, there is NOTHING else to this blog. Don't try to make anything out of this blog. Bend is springfield. Homer is Homer.
Bart
I'm a national reporter.
I'm doing a story about Bend destroying pets of old widows in order to get their homes for Bend Real Estate.
Does anyone have any information here about how many pets were destroyed?
How many widows lost their homes?
How the City was involved in the $450 'dog at large tickets', that caused 100's of people to euthanize their pets?? How was the Real Estate industry involved?
'Dart' is the father, of Bruce Pussy's "hercules" cave dwarf wife. It's a small world, but its Bend.
>>>
I can't imagine what it might smell like.
<<<
Do you have to have a permit in Bend to keep a 'cave dwarf wife'??
Just curious.
For Mormon family's how does the issue polygamy work? For instance if you have more the four 'cave dwarves', would you have to have a kennel license?
>> you seem to be saying you have no motive to see housing prices fall
> Actually, I said that the trumping issue, is that I do not have the ability to move prices.
Then why try so hard with your epic and boundlessly creative posts? Are you the irresistible force, or the immovable object? It seems silly to suggest that writers have no ability to influence people. Your number of unique visitors probably well exceeds the population of Bend.
>> you'll only buy when it's very compelling
> This has always been true, bubble or not.
It should be no great concession on your part to acknowledge this. It is possible for you to benefit personally from the drop in prices, which is why I brought it up in the context of your mystery bias and the completely fair question we as readers have to ask: how do you benefit from this activity? Anyone taking influence from your work -- and there are many of us -- should analyze carefully what you choose to reveal about your mind, how you use insults and humor to make your points, and the manner in which you engage the community on the comments pages.
>> It seems clear that ultimately, this is your motive
> What seems clear?
Please see above. I don't think it's unclear to We The People.
>> MBAs and the like are not known for altruism...
> Are you for lynching blacks?
Their skin color would be most likely a coincidence. I snigger at this cheap rebuttal.
>> in light of your clear leadership on the issue,
> You haven't been here long have you?
No, but my comment was a sincere compliment on both the quality and quantity of your analysis. By taking offense, you reveal a glimpse of the mystery bias which is the subject of my feedback here. Why would you resent praise of your voluminous, entertaining, and informative work? You have strong personal passion on this issue. Passion requires deep personal interest, which at your age orbits money and power, which are what must matter to any man ambitious enough to fight in the war for hearts and minds.
If you are independently wealthy, to spend as much precious time and pleasure on this, of all things, becomes even more mysterious.
>> I still think it's a common sense conclusion your personal holdings and strategy is key to understanding your work.
> Woof. That's a leap that is so strange it will almost NEVER make sense. Do you call up the reporter for every business story & ask them what their investments are?
No. Perhaps I should ask the commenter 'national reporter' above just to run down that immediate possibility. The purpose of bias review is to shed light on obscura such as yours. Readers may think for themselves, and critically, if they wish. I imagine there are many lurkers who read this blog feverishly from out of town or out of state, who aren't MBAs and find it hard to extract clear meaning from your potent mix of humor and hubris.
>If homes prices fall enough here, I'd like to buy. If they don't, no biggie, I just won't buy. Renting is very, very close to buying in an experiential way & I have no problem renting for quite awhile.
> If prices NEVER go down here, Oh well. I'll just keep renting on the cheap here, and pocketing the difference.
But aren't rent prices affected by home prices? If home prices fall, owners' need for cash increases. If renters then threaten to leave for a better deal, rents come down as owners attempt to retain tenants. Which gives us yet another angle which demonstrates how you could be working toward your own personal benefit, not that this should be shocking. Seem quite obvious, really.
You're a quant, and you know Occam's Razor; the simplest potential solution is probably correct. Just as an exercise for readers, which of the following seems *simpler* (number of words in each case aside):
1.
You see benefit from doing all this work, which is why you do it.
2.
You are certain you will never benefit in any way, yet are still doing all this work for a mysterious reason you are clearly uncomfortable discussing in any detail.
In fairness, my argument would be more difficult if you used advertising on this blog. Then you'd have what seems to be an obvious cover for the true purpose of your operation.
> Trying to pin some sort of motive on me is fine, go ahead. I just think it's ridiculous. This thing is more about education & spin-killing, than "moving markets". That's just weird.
Respectfully, I am not trying to pin any particular motive. I lack that information, so instead I am highlighting the mysterious lack of motive, which against the backdrop of such overly powerful statements suggests an acute personal bias. Readers must understand that the key to decrypting highly emotional or/and calculated writing is the analysis of the writer's bias. With that, readers may weigh your statements against their perception of your point of view, and from that derive weighted results that become much safer and more useful.
> You can only move markets with spin when it's participants are willing idiots.
In this context, 'willing idiots' means most people. Unless the fire in your writing represents frustration at your failure to move the market, which seems contradictory, or unless you're an attention whore who does all this because you're addicted to the validation of anonymous strangers, which seems plausible but not in line with the MBA mindset, you, Mr. Doh, are a cipher.
In conclusion, it is worth the time of intelligent readers with an economic interest in Bend to study your bias because of all the aforementioned reasons.
Keep up the great work! Once again I really enjoy your sense of rhetorical style.
Good Lord Yellowbeard, while I agree that all material needs to read with a critical eye (which I personally do and will go out on a limb and state that most readers here also do this task) I am compelled to ask what's your point? Frankly who gives a rats a#% if Homer is completely biased and this entire blog is his secret mission to bring down RE prices here? No snarky feelings intended here but I AM curious do you critique EVERYTHING for motive/ agenda? Also, it seems to be the trend that posters here are often offended, I supose it comes w/ the territory.
O.k. I want to correct my last statement that most people read this blog with a crtical eye...only because I did go back and review old posts. By the way does anyone know what the issue is when you attempt to post and the password is correct but not recognized?
Dottiebug
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