Monday, January 21, 2008

Bend Oregon: Real Estates New "Britney"

OK, here's a chart of 3 data points. Imagine it's the sales for 3 different stores. Which store would you rather be?

USA (yellow), Oregon (red), and Bend MSA area (blue) unemployment rates from 1990 to Now. (y-axis inverted)

Welp, it's actually the unemployment rate for Deschutes County (blue line), Oregon (red line), and the US (yellow line), going clear back to 1990, the first year all three stats are available.

A few things become obvious right away.

First, and by far the most important, is the wild cyclicality of Bend. Some of those years in the 90's swung from about 11% on the bad side, to 5.75% to the good. You see Oregon doesn't swing nearly as much as Bend. And the US as a whole does not swing nearly as wild as Oregon.

This goes to the point I made repeatedly on this blog, and way back on BEM's: Bend is extremely "high beta". When things are going poorly, or even if they are going so-so, Bend is in the shitter. Look at that initial 4 year plunge starting in 1990: From just about 4% unemployment, and then a series of lower lows & lower highs, culminating in 11.1% unemployment in Feb 1994.

Now look at the Good Times: In 2000, unemployment reached a low of 4.5% in September, before beginning a relatively brief "2 cycle" ratchet lower to 9.6% unemployment in Feb 2002. Notice also that when unemployment is relatively low, it "compresses"; the swings from high to low have less amplitude.

The beginning of the graph is more indicative of the severe drops that have been experienced by the Old Timers (aka Duncan). That 1994 swing appears to be the largest in the past 17 years, although I'll bet there were times in the 80's when the swings were wilder, and the figures got far bleaker.

The reason I ask if you could choose one, and act as if it's a store, is to bring out that point that The Severity of the swings, is probably going to be more important than the absolute levels.

This is what I find interesting about Duncan's store in particular vs Bend: He runs an almost pure fad business (at least as faddish as you'll find alive around here), but he has diversified into several fads. He's employed a "portfolio management" approach to managing his store. You can sense it in his yearly updates & store rules:

  • Carry all the classics, cult, personal interest/and/or books you like.
  • If you've ever been in my store, you know what my focus is on -- inventory, inventory, inventory.
  • But what I carry, and how much? Totally under my control, baby.

Same goes for managing a stock portfolio: Buy a little of everything, and all the little wild swings of the individual components cancel each other out. Which leads to Paul-doh's rule of running a town, a store, or a stock portfolio:

DIVERSIFY

If you do not diversify your "stock", be it shares in a company, comic books, ski resort, an entire downtown area, or what have you, they will ultimately carry you out.

That's why I was sort of surprised that Anime Mountain lasted so long: They took a "1 stock" approach to a fad business. And realize that MOST BUSINESSES ARE FAD BUSINESSES. There are exceptions like GE and Johnson & Johnson. But most successful businesses have a definitive End Date.

And you can measure the Faddishness of Bend by looking at it's wild swings in unemployment. And being fad-based is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. Every year, you MUST layoff Good People, suffer thru the Hard Times, and then ATTEMPT to hire back the good ones again, usually unsuccessfully. All that mind share just goes away every year, and you have to hire a new crew.

In some industries, like Hospitality & Restaurants, this is less important. They expect high turnover. But in Real Live Businesses, it's INCREDIBLY EXPENSIVE. Look at Pegasus itself: Retail isn't exactly an industry breaking down the doors with Intellectual Property, but you can already tell that Dunc is getting used to living the "Pat Lifestyle", and losing him would be hell. Although it's clear much of the hard-won experience of running Dunc's business is embodied in Duncan himself.

How do you think it'd be in other industries like accounting, software, law, and other higher level intellectual property-based businesses. In the most extreme circumstances like real estate, the people ARE THE BUSINESS. You should never, EVER buy a business like that when 100% of the intellectual property walks out the doors at 5:00.

And therein lies Bend's Biggest Liability: We are wildly high beta, which means we are wildly expensive in an area that is probably more important than just cost inflation: The most valuable asset in many businesses are forcibly blown out the hatch each year, and we then start ALL OVER the next Summer, all training & knowledge-based experience, LOST.

But WAIT. Look at the graph! We're having some sort of Bend Renaissance! Our unemployment actually went BELOW the national average for the first time EVER, in recent history! That's gotta count for something, right?

Maybe. Maybe it would had we followed Paul-doh's single rule for running a store, town or stock portfolio. What's that rule again? Oh right:

DIVERSIFY, DAMMIT!

Unfortunately, we did not follow this rule, and we in fact did the opposite: We doubled down on our winner with each and every bonanza. And we did it to hella good effect, too. Bend probably actually is a far more vibrant town that it would otherwise be, had we plowed money back into industries with lower interim returns than RE. So our doubled-own mentality has worked.

Until now. We made a bargain with the Devil that we'd give our souls to be the bleeding edge, top of the heap town for 3 years, and now it's time to pay. Check the graph: Our "high" on this recent cycle was lower. We will make a new low next month, we always do. And December is already lower, so the cycle of lower highs & lower lows has begun. The devil wants his money, NOW.

Poor Bend, we are not only stricken with vicious yearly cycles, but "long-wave" cycles; waves within waves. Just draw a line thru the middle of our yearly cycles. You can see that the 90's were a giant bowl shaped cycle. The swings get hella wild (ie EXPENSIVE) on the lows, and when things turn up as they have in the past 6 years, the swings become tempered, and we approach, dare I say it, normalcy. There's a feeling of an Economic Renaissance, where the vicious cyclicality of the past is banished forever, and Bend becomes a Real Town, not a giant T-shirt shop.

A town where people's intellectual capital survives The Yearly Cycle. A town where workers are valuable ALL YEAR, not just when it's warm. A town where half the businesses owners DO NOT consider closing up shop. A town where you can actually pay your bills in January. A town where half the Winter income is not paid in Bachelor barter exchange.

Then apply this yearly swing, to the longer waves. There is a periodic purge of Bend on longer time scales, where entire industries are blown away. Timber first. Now we have a behemoth RE industry, built on the premise of DOUBLING DOWN NEVER LOSES. Unfortunately, this is wrong. Doubling down ALWAYS loses, it's just a matter of when. Well, it's now.

I think some people think we'll do a short cycle down, and pop right back up the New Highs. Well, maybe if we'd had Duncan running the show -- maybe. But we are The New Britney. Or should I say, we are the older, dumpier, lip-synching, snatch-flashing, coked-up Britney.

We are past our prime, unfortunately. The Old Britney, dead-smokin hot in a Catholic schoolgirl out fit, just isn't coming back.

We're on The Long Wave down, I'm afraid. Lower yearly lows, and lower highs. Wasted human capital, a condition that just gets more severe every year.

And not to rub salt in the wounds of the True Believers, but do you recall Paul-doh saying that the imploding RE market would infect every corner of our economy to a degree not seen in modern history? And I don't want to remind everyone that I don't think it'll stop at a mild recession, then we're on to bigger & better things. I think that the US itself will be supplanted as The World Superpower. Time to learn Chinese...

Look at the frantic Fear In Their Eyes:

  • George Bush reschedules an economic press conference forward 10 days, because it CANNOT WAIT 10 DAYS.
  • Citigroup (and others) goes begging in the Middle East for capital TO KEEP THE DOORS OPEN.
  • Not just banks, but ALL financially leveraged companies are imploding towards bankruptcy.
  • Stock market plummeting

Look at this chart of MBIA, bond insurer extraordinaire:


From $70/sh to damn near $7 in 3 months. These guys are in the perilous business of paying off debts when others default. I won't bore you with another CACB chart showing a 67% loss in the past year.

So what's the Bad News? Well, we've started a Long Wave down in Bend, which is simply lower lows & lower highs. And I say again: There is NO INDUSTRY IN BEND immune from it's deleterious effects. A rising tide carries all boats, but a falling tide grounds them all too. Mark my words, we'll see 12% unemployment one of these next 5 Winters. We doubled down, and now they'll carry us out.

The Good News? Bend's yearly cyclicality ends in February, mercifully. Things are about to do their yearly upturn.

But we WILL NOT hit the recent peaks again. FOR YEARS. If you are having troubles now, you ain't seen nut'n yet. If you own a business with a lease coming up for renewal, and you're doing some major 401K-to-payroll transfers, you'd better think hard about whether you want to squander your retirement on a Dream. Look at the Unemployment Chart ONE MORE TIME. It's gets DAMN BAD HERE WHEN IT GETS BAD.

Can you survive, is the question. I know a LOT of people who watched the money pile up over the past 3-4 years, and have a decent slug in the bank, and are plenty comfortable waiting out this "temporary slowdown", having enough to easily make it 2-3 years. But what about a long, protracted Depression, lasting WELL OVER 10 years?

This is Bend's specialty: Running your 401K down to NOTHING, while you wait for the Sun to Come Out Tomorrow. If you want Real Advice, FUCK THIS BLOG, go talk to someone who hasn't just survived 1 or 2 LONG WAVE tsunami's, but damn near all of them.

In response to Buster, Duncan say:

My dear boy,

This is nothing. If you had walked up to me on the sidewalk in 1992 and blown in my face I would've fallen over.

15 years ago, I was operating with no assets, huge debt, and sales dropping in half. Half, I tell you! It was a near business death experience, which it seemed I fought my way back from one inch at a time.

Not to mention the wasteland that was downtown Bend from 1982 - 1987.

Or the second time sales dropped in half from 1995-1997.

No. This is like having been on the Russian front for a few years, and coming back to the National Guard for storm duty.

I'm only worried that I won't make the profits I was hoping for. Profits that would make me feel much more secure about my next lease negotiation.

January 18, 2008 8:48:00 PM PST

BUSINESS TURNS DOWN IN BEND. Always has, always will. Try to divorce from your mind that BendBust or I are trying to Scare You Outta Bend. Is Duncan trying to? I'm not trying to scare anyone, but I'm trying to ask people to reassess their own financial situation: Can you & your business (and by extension, your job) survive an Extended Long wave DOWN?

Assess whether you will take the tsunami head on (RE, development, mortgage, etc), or get pounded by the far less severe secondary waves (upscale restaurants & "boutiques"), or the far less damaging tertiary waves (basic necessity providers, medical, and must-have business supplies).

Here's my advice:

If you are in the Tsunami Head On group, Get Out. Or you will end up like the people who thought they could "beat" St Helens exploding and hunkered down. You can't "beat" this thing. It is an overwhelming force. It will carry you out, no matter your resources. It will scour the ground clean, and your corpse will simply be floating in the ocean in a year or two. Get Out Now.

If you are in the second group, look at your personal finances. How many years (months?) can you survive at a permanently lower level of sales, with constant or possibly HIGHER expenses? How bad do you REALLY want to dissipate your savings to wait for a Long Wave top that may be 15 years away?

The third group should simply hunker down. Some will not feel much of a beating, medical being the biggie. Entertainment is another. But they WILL feel something. EVERYTHING will. This thing is country wide. It's just going to be extraordinarily severe here.

DIVERSIFY

Deep? You're Dead.

Bend Medical Center? You'll live.

Downtown Art Gallery? Dead.

Dandy's Drive In? Alive.

Sisters? Dead.

Regal Cinema? Alive.

Half the retail at The Old Mill? Dead.

Overly targeted faddish bullshit retail? Dead, bigtime.

Pegasus? Bruised, but alive.

Downtown Redmond? Dead.

Grocery Stores? Alive.

Upscale Shoe Stores? All dead.

Normal people shoe stores? Alive.

You can survive, but you'd better realize that NOW is the time to HUNKER DOWN. Eternal Optimism will leave you DEAD ON THE SLOPES OF EVEREST. Even if you are hunkering down, The Largest Threat to your survival is the Delusional Perceptions Of Your Landlord. Some are pricing downtown like it's The Ginza in downtown Tokyo. Of course, most will DIE ON THE SLOPES OF EVEREST by doing this. In the process they'll simply kill half of downtown.

We're in the long wave down folks. We're the New Britney. How many Britney albums would you buy if they cut the price in half? That's just a weird question, as it assumes dropping price will have some ability to put Britney back on top. It won't. She is over, and you could give away her shit, and there'd be few who'd ever expend the money to drive to the store to pick it up for free. Here's how BEM put it:

With the number of houses on the market today, sales of 74 houses in December means that BUYERS ARE WISE that you'd have to be a fool to pay anywhere NEAR asking price for ANY home in Bend. 74 houses sold out of 1500+ offered means that very, very few people are saying "let's just buy this place. Sure it's a bit more expensive than we'd like, but we love it."

Realtors like to describe this situation as "buyers on the sidelines" or "vultures circling." That's actually optimistic, I think. I think that there's no one on the sidelines and no vultures anywhere near. I think if you lopped 50% off of the price of all real estate in Bend, it would still take MONTHS to sell. People (including lenders) have caught on to the notion that we're in the early stages of a MULTI-YEAR downturn.


This exactly our situation. Cut price 50%, and almost nothing would happen. And I've put it out there, that due to The Cult of Bend, and the Kool-Aid factor that No One Will Lower Their Price. This is only half the picture.

There is the even worse circumstance of MANY in Bend who CANNOT lower their price. They do not have the assets to cover a short sale, and going BK means 10 years of FICO bad luck. F'd if they do, and F'd if they don't. I believe I've heard this mantra before. Who was it? Oh right, Buster:

Bend is FUCKED

I know, it's easy to dismiss this as the ravings of a lunatic. Maybe that's because that's sort of what it is. But that don't mean it's wrong. He's dead right. Dammit. There is no better way to summarize the plight of this town. Half WILL NOT do what has to be done to jumpstart our economic engine. The other half CANNOT do it. Hence, we're headed for the WORST OF ALL WORLDS: Stagflation. The stagflation the US will suffer will PALE in comparison to what will happen to Bend.

Our city coffers are damn near bare. We are FIRING COPS because we wanted homes, and to hell with REALISTIC SDC charges. We can't patch the potholes. Our vast unfinished developments are damn near 100% VACANT. We are on the hook for millions in improvements, mainly in the JR area. Jump starting that are will take a MINIMUM $200 MILLION. We ain't got $2 million. "Bend is fucked", is dead right.

We're the New Britney. We're Flint, MI. Marking down price won't do shit. We're headed for the tsunami hit. Not lasting for a year or two. Decades. Your ENTIRE ADULT LIFE. It's time to REALLY REASSESS if you are willing to sacrifice IT ALL to stay here, because you will have to.

Ask yourself: Where are you in the path of the tsunami? If it'll hit you head on, are you going to uproot everything, move on, and survive, or will you take the hit, and watch EVERYTHING get stripped away?



What does a bursted has-been bubble look like 10 years hence? Well, kinda like this.


257 comments:

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tim said...

Fuck the unions.

Let's get back to the bubble.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

If they are poor they're poor, accumulating wealth to get out of the 98%, has to start early. In your 20's I believe.

Perhaps I'm a nasty social darwinian ( I don't think so ), however I did come from a poor family, and that is was what drove me as a kid to read books like 'babylon', and getty's "How to be rich", ... and get my ass out of poverty, so I didn't end up an old beggar.

I guess you can blame consumerism, but just like 'babylon' even in that book, 4,000 years ago people would spend all their money on clothes, too look good. There is NOTHING new under the sun. You simply can't blame modern consumerism for human habits.

I liken the problem to 'alcohol', famous experiment, take 100 rats with unlimited booze, 5 will become acute alcholics, and 5 tee-totalers, and 90 occasional drinkers.

I think that in human biology the reason that less than 5% win the money game, is that there are 5% that just don't like to spend money, and thus when our working life is over, we retain all our earnings.

Most people just spend&spend, and spend, and all make millions in their working lifetime and end up with nothing.

It drives my friends crazy I never spent money, all my life I bought land and homes, and never sold, I have NO interest in money. I think its just like the rats that don't drink.

The people who like to spend money are always going to be poor, even if they win the lottery, it ain't going to last.

I'm not saying any of this is a good thing, I'm just saying this shit as a REALIST.

I have quoted JP Getty (how to be rich), and I'll quote again, just like the 98% from babylon, the most significant idea in getty's book is "He would have given up ALL his money for love". To the day he died, he never trusted anyone. That's some heavy shit. I end with that quote to show that money isn't everything.

He said many times he would have given up all his money, to have a wife that loved him.

Anonymous said...

most people would much rather have a job with a steady, budgetable paycheck than be entrepreneurial with the chance to go big.
-tim

*

and that's why most people (98%) are too busy making a living, to get rich.

tim said...

>>however I did come from a poor family

I grew up (this is NOT a joke) above a friggin' highway offramp. I repeat. A highway offramp. In a rented little bungalow. Traffic so friggin' loud all night that the crickets gave up trying to find their mates.

There are some people who get out of every bad situation in the world. Not many. Some. Out of even _real_ nastiness. People in way worse situations than a relatively comfortable highway exit ramp rat like me.

The odds are bad, but they are impossible without knowing things like how compounded interest on your credit card vs. compounded interest in your savings hit you.

The human brain can figure out how to catch a pop fly no sweat. It knows that kind of physics. It doesn't know shit about compounding. There's no human "feel" for compounding. It has to be accepted and aimed for even though you never get a real feel for it.

10,000
11,000
11,110
12,221
13,443
14,787
16,266
17,892
19,682
21,650
23,815

I don't want to hear how it's too hard to save. If you don't try, you won't. My parents saved, even though we had to eat macaroni for the final week before every paycheck.

And yeah, you probably have to start in your 20s. 29 is hard. 21 is easy.

Anonymous said...

+++

The downside surprises continue...

Bend park board’s HQ on track as ball fields are slashed
By Yoko Minoura / The Bulletin
Jan. 24, 2008

The Bend Metro Park and Recreation District staff said Tuesday that the district will not be building sports fields at the Pine Nursery Community Park next year, as originally planned.

A slowdown in the construction industry has led to a drop in development fees the district would have used to build baseball diamonds and soccer fields at the 157-acre park at the corner of Purcell Boulevard and Yeoman Road in northeast Bend.

Park district board members gave their informal approval Tuesday night to a plan delaying the construction of sports fields indefinitely. Instead, the district will create trails on the park site to allow people to use the area.

At the same time, however, the district is pushing forward with a $6.2 million project to build a new administration building in The Old Mill District. Money for the new administration building comes from a different source than funding for Pine Nursery park development.

Originally, for the first phase of development at the park, the district planned to build four baseball diamonds and four soccer fields that could be used for football and other sports, according to district documents. Two other fields would be used for both soccer and baseball, depending on the season.

The district also planned to create an access road off Purcell Boulevard and parking for the athletic fields, a central green lawn area and an irrigation pond that would also serve as a fishing hole.

Subsequent phases have also been planned that would boost the number of soccer fields, add tennis and basketball courts, create trails and provide other park amenities.

So far, only the fishing pond has been created.

The first phase was expected to cost around $8.5 million, with $5.3 million supposed to come from development fees collected in 2008-09, according to district documents. But the downturn in the housing market means that money is unlikely to materialize.

“The sports field development (that) would have come next year — would have been dependent on that $5 million funding that we now don’t have,” said Bruce Ronning, the park and recreation district’s director of planning and development.

The $3.2 million already allocated to the project could pay for the access roads and parking for athletic fields, but not much more.

“We’re down to, ‘Do we continue spending the $3 million and end up with a road and parking lot, or do we think more strategically?’” Ronning said.

He added that it made little sense to build roads and parking for sports fields the district cannot afford to build yet.

Instead, staff said they planned to build an access road into the park from Purcell Boulevard, create a temporary parking lot and build walking and hiking trails around the perimeter, some of them paved and accessible to people with disabilities.

Additional trails would run through the interior, linking the fishing pond to the parking lot. An off-leash area for dogs might also be opened up at the park, district staff said.

But that’s about it.

Ronning said the district still plans to build sports fields at the Pine Nursery, but nobody knows when that would happen.

“The master plan has not changed,” he said. “It’s just been downsized due to budget constraints.”

The access road, parking lot and trails are expected to cost roughly $500,000. Another $1 million that was allocated in this year’s budget for the Pine Nursery will remain in reserve.

“It’s a hard decision for us,” Ronning said. “We’re not happy about it. We know there’s an expectation in the community that the first phase of the project would be completed in the next year or so, but we just don’t have the funding for it.”

Board chairwoman Ruth Williamson said that the district is trying to make the best of a difficult situation by opening up the park to residents, instead of simply fencing off the land.

Williamson said she understands the overwhelming need for field space.

“When the building fees pick up again, the board at that time, I hope, will look again at the Pine Nursery and say, ‘This has been promised for a long time to the community, we need these fields, let’s go for it.’”

She said she also hopes residents can see the silver lining in the opening of the Pine Nursery, even if they won’t get the sports fields promised to them.

“People can use it for walking and respite,” she said. “The Pine Nursery becomes, at the moment, a blank canvas.”

The district is pushing ahead with plans for a new administrative building as planned because its staff long ago outgrew the current office, district officials have said in previous interviews.

The steady growth in recreational programs managed out of that office has contributed to the crowding, officials said. Some staff work out of trailers placed next to the district’s maintenance shop across town.

The money for the new administration building comes from a different source — property tax dollars the district has set aside for the past three or four years, district officials said — than those for the Pine Nursery park.

And if the district depleted the fund for a new building, it would not be able to recoup the loss using future development fees meant to pay for the Pine Nursery. District policy currently prohibits using those fees to build new indoor facilities, such as an administration building.

Youth flag football coach Andy Heinly said he was disappointed by the decision to delay development of Pine Nursery park.

Field space is so tight in Bend that he sometimes holds practice on almost any spare patch of grass.

“We’ll pick a park, where there’s just any grass to play on,” he said.

Heinly said his disappointment extends beyond simply finding a place to practice.

A large field complex, like the one planned at Pine Nursery Community Park, would provide a venue where Bend could host sports tournaments that could attract teams from around the state, he said.

Heinly said it would benefit the entire community, not just young athletes.

He said he was a bit surprised that the Pine Nursery project relied so heavily on development fees, known as SDCs, given its importance

SDCs, or system development charges, are fees builders pay for new parks needed by new residents.

“If the entire (Pine Nursery) was to be funded by SDCs, that’s a lot of eggs in one basket,” Heinly said. “But that may have been the only way to do it.”

tim said...

>>Bend park board’s HQ on track as ball fields are slashed

I was at a charity event last year talking to someone who was running for city council (she lost). All she could talk about was subsidizing house-buying. I was saying, nope, that doesn't help low-income people. That drives prices up.

What you ought to do, I told her, is build infrastructure, parks, amenities FAST. I had been in a top 10 growth city twenty years before. Being top 10 never lasts. When you have that growth you have to get your city the way you want it pronto. There won't be park-building when you're broke. And here we are, but about two years faster than I thought it would happen.

Anonymous said...

Timmy sez:
"I believe you are projecting your admiration for heroic historical union movements onto the teachers' union."
-------------

That is brilliant!! And concise. Much wisdom, few words.

Everytime the timster opens his mouth, wisdom pours forth. Timtim for Mayor!! Out with Abernothing; Down with exMayor Fraudman. Long live the new Mayor Timmy!

As for bruce, well, put the shovel down, dude. The more you say, the worse your side gets.

But as timmy also said: Move on already. The union smack down is too easy & getting way old.

New topics:
A) Inn fiasco fight enters 2nd stage. Any wagers on when the 3rd bankruptcy hits?
B) Did they really plan for no parking at the Ol'Mill?

tim said...

>>That is brilliant!! And concise. Much wisdom, few words.

Heh. You're just setting me up. Then you'll do some kinda jujitsu on me to show I'm just a dumb 40-something kid. :-)

tim said...

>>Did they really plan for no parking at the Ol'Mill?

Dumbest thing I ever heard. It's a shopping center. You drive there. It's not downtown Portland.

Anonymous said...

Finally someone reports the NEWS with a correct headline, How do you describe CACB?? DISMAL

***

Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 9:51 AM PST
Cascade Bancorp reports dismal Q4
Portland Business Journal


Cascade Bancorp was hurt by the housing loan crisis in the fourth quarter of 2007, with a nearly 47 percent drop in earnings compared with the same period of 2006.

However for the full year the holding company of Bank of the Cascades reported an earnings drop of less than 2 percent.

For the fourth quarter of 2007 ending Dec. 31, Bend-based Cascade Bancorp (NASDAQ: CACB) had earnings of $5.3 million, or 19 cents per share, compared with Q4 2006 earnings of $10.3 million, or 36 cents per share.

In Q4 2007, Cascade Bancorp reported credit losses of $7.5 million and net charge-offs of $3.9 million with nonperforming assets at $45.7 million.

For the full year of fiscal 2007, Cascade Bancorp had earnings of $35 million, or $1.23 per share, compared with earnings of $35.6 million, or $1.34 per share, in 2006.

Bank of the Cascades has 34 branches in Oregon and Idaho.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tsweekly.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2409&Itemid=66

People need to post over at the source comments on this story.

The minutes that note that Friedman was fired Dec 31, 2007 has already been deleted from the comments at the Source ( Note these minutes are here above, and can be verified at www.innof7thmtn.com.

Note all this source information can be found at www.innof7thmtn.com with regards to all sides going back to the beginning.

The Source story leaves out all the good parts like, ridgewater firing Friedman, and the board firing Friedman ( Dec 31, 2007 ).

The whole Source story is from the point of view of Friedman start to finish, problem is Friedman has the most to lose.

We need to get the entire story posted on the Source website, everyones help is wanted. They'll not delete posts if everyone is posting information.

The whole story needs to be told. This story was handed to the Source two months ago in November when the owners first got the bill. The Source is ignoring virtually all that has happened since xmas.

We have to keep the Source honest, we have to keep them from deleting comments, and we have to present the whole story of the INNof7thMTN from start to finish. This money grabbing by Pape start 2-3 years ago, and all that is ignored as well. Three years ago Pape's board raised the HOA's from $50/mo to $550/mo and that was supposed to have paid for maintenance. That's $18k/condo, where is the money?

Friedman's books might show us where the money is at!

But we have to get all the questions public before Mayor Friedman will can forced to turnover the books to the homer owners association.

tim said...

In many cities, the paper in The Source's niche is the counter-culture or alternative paper.

The Source is a lot wimpier than I assumed it was when I moved here. It's just another Bend visitor's center mouthpiece.

Anonymous said...

A) Inn fiasco fight enters 2nd stage. Any wagers on when the 3rd bankruptcy hits?

*

That's the rumor I'm hearing in the financial circles.

Pape knew it was going down, and they were squeezing $7M out of the home-owner's prior to XMAS, that was the big rush, to get back their investment, and then sell.

Trouble is the homeowners had been fucked once before by Pape, and second time fought back. Hiring the most aggressive plaintiff's lawyer in Oregon has changed everything for Pape.

Chance of INNof7th Default/Foreclosure 100%.

Like the Brenneke story everyone is waiting for the court. If the judge rules against Pape, they'll fold and sell. If the the judge rule's against the INN-Owners they'll fold&sell, which means the condo's will be worth nothing.

Either way Pape is holding nothing.

'Greed' & Friedman is what made them try to grab the $7M, they bet wrong.

Game's over, lose-lose for everyone.

Pape made a BAD investment by buying the place, and sticking $20M into the bar&restaurant, ... a bad investment. He was trying to get cash back out. There are no winners.

The real issue is where is the money? Friedmans books.

My opinion is that the increased condo fee that Pape raised three years ago from $50/mo to $550/mo which is $18k/condo, that money was used to service his loan on the restuarant/bar, thus what should have been spent to fix up the condo's went to the amenitys, the whole reason the owners went along with the increase in HOA was they thought that the money was going reside the condo's and fix the roof's.

When Pape came in for this second FUCK this thanksgiving, the owners just went ballistic.

Note none of this history is told in the Source's version of how this war began.

The most interesting thing is how much of the 200 * $18k/condo HOA or $4M HOA increase, how much percentage of that did Friedman Rake in?? This is the $10k question. The racket is HOA's, and Friedmans is shaking down 40 situations like this in Bend. This is some serious chicken feed.

tim said...

Conforming loan amount is being raised.

This means loan rate will go down and prices will go up for a bunch of Bend houses. Does not help affordibility. Does not help cash buyer. Just helps big borrowers, which is what got us in thisproblem.

Banks will do these loans because they can now have Fannie and Freddie back them up.

As if Fannie and Freddie weren't in enough trouble.

Anonymous said...

(SORE) It's just another Bend visitor's center mouthpiece.

*

Actually the Bend Vistor Center VCB/DVA is ran by a women who is married to Costa the editor of the BULL.

Thus the BULL is the mouthpiece for the vistor-center ( paid for by OUR tax dollars ).

The SORE, they only have one biz, and that is street closures, as Aarons Switzer ( sore owner ), his profit is all the events, and Friedman can shutdown his little monopoly in an instance, thus this the reason they kowtow Friedman.

You can't have alternative paper, when the owner of the paper is dependent upon city-hall for his livelyhood.

The SORE doesn't make any money per-se, they don't even make enough money for a reporter.

Anonymous said...

"I believe you are projecting your admiration for heroic historical union movements onto the teachers' union."

*

I think that bruce want's a blow job from some teacher in Bend, and with his wife out of town, he's sucking up to the NEA.

In Bend things are quite simple, they're only about money or sex.

Anonymous said...

Note, the keyword here 'closing', most of these deals never 'close', e.g. get recorded.
****

Jan-24-2008 12:00
BigBrick.com Offers Oregon Home Sellers Money-Saving Solutions
Salem-News.com Business Report


(BEND, Ore.) - When Shawn and Molly Kelly’s Bend, Oregon home failed to sell after six months on the market with a realtor, they decided to drop the price and sell it on their own. They enlisted help from the free service BigBrick.com that included listing their home for nothing on the company's Web site.

Two days later, a buyer saw their house on BigBrick.com and made an offer. The closing is next month.

"We figured that if we didn’t have to pay a commission, we could offer a more attractive price," says Molly Kelly.

And it worked. They got a price they're happy with and the buyer got a great deal.

For home sellers like the Kelly's who have decided to forgo an agent and sell on their own, BigBrick.com offers an array of free real estate services.

Users can print all their legal paperwork, including the sales contract and property disclosures, right from the site. The price: $0.

BigBrick.com also sends every seller who posts a property on the site a free BigBrick.com sign. The sign is about 6 inches by 18 inches and can be hung below the sellers existing for sale sign. When a buyer drives by and sees the sign, they have a convenient way to get the scoop on what that property has to offer.

And because BigBrick offers map based searching, it is easy for buyers to pinpoint a specific house that they had driven by.

"The free signs are a big part of what we are doing, and they have really been driving a lot of traffic to the site," says BigBrick founder David Staley.

And how are they able to offer their services for free?

They plan to support their operations by selling advertising.

"We are absolutely committed to keeping all of our services free. We really feel that is the best way to attract as many users as possible, and the more people we have using the site, the more valuable a resource it becomes," says Staley.

After launching the site three months ago, BigBrick already has a strong presence in its home town of Bend, and properties located in other parts of the state also have been posted.

"For Oregon home sellers, BigBrick may be a tool worth considering in a slow real estate market," says Staley.

Anonymous said...

"Actually the Bend Vistor Center VCB/DVA is ran by a women who is married to Costa the editor of the BULL."

Costa is married to The Bulletin's features editor, idiot.

Anonymous said...

Costa is married to The Bulletin's features editor, idiot.

...

Somebody important at the BULL is married to somebody important at VCB/DVA, who is sleeping with who??

Anonymous said...

This is an interesting point. Brought up by tim. ( What is the purpose of the SORE vs the BULL )

The fact is the Sore is competing with VCB/DVA (BEND) on events, the BULL is behind VCB/DVA.

The SORE would be happy for the VCB/DVA to go away, and then the SORE would be the last 'event man' standing.

It seems to me in my recollection, that there is a relationship of bigwig @ VCB(city$$) / DVA(PR) that is related to the BULL.

There is evidence that the VCB/DVA is the nemesis of the Sore, if somebody wants I can post the doc's.

I think the subject came up on the subject of the SORE being an ALT-Paper here in Bend for the youth. In my humble opinion the SORE is just a hobby for Aaron Switzer, he was a world-class frisbe golf champ before he came here from Utah. Most likely a Trust-a-Farian.

I think putting on Frisbee Golf events, made the SORE a natural for putting on events in Bend.

Anonymous said...

In Eugene it's the Eugene Weekly, and it's more subversive. But Eugene is a college town. Don't expect anything subversive in bend.

Anonymous said...

Don't expect anything subversive in bend.

*

Yes, Eugene is a college town. Bend is/was bought and paid for a long time ago by condo developers. Sort of like as if UofO was gone, and Eugene was gone, and Springfield took over.

Springfield and Bend are similar, towns without a soul.

Bend used to have cultural diversity, now the only diversity is the size of your SUV, the size of your artificial penis, or mammary glands. 100% republican is Bend.

Anonymous said...

a friend of mine in CA just called me tonight. He's a savvy businessman, and he told me something interesting: He said he just read that in Orange County--- one of the richest counties in the US with multimillion dollar homes--- that 7% of the people there have failed to pay their property taxes last year. That is unheard of, and has him very concerned: Not only are the average joes strapped, but it's even starting to affect the ultra-rich. Scary.

Yesterday I called a good friend in the Deschutes County Tax Appraisal office and they said they're seeing the same thing. I think things are far worse in local government that they're telling us.

The region seems to be burning while Bend City Council fiddles.

tim said...

In some parts of California, more than half the houses for sale are defaults.

Anonymous said...

The SORE would be happy for the VCB/DVA to go away, and then the SORE would be the last 'event man' standing.

The big dog in town is C3 Events, not the Source.

http://www.c3events.com/

C3 is behind the Summer Festival, Fall Festival, Munch and Music, Munch and Movies, etc.

Anonymous said...

"I think that the US itself will be supplanted as The World Superpower."

Yep. We sold our birthright for a mess of cheap shit from China. That, and trying to be the policeman of the world.

But Wal-Mart Nation won't wise up as long as they can buy more cheap shit, watch NASCAR and shout themselves hoarse yelling "USA! USA! USA!"

Imbeciles.

Anonymous said...

"Not only are the average joes strapped, but it's even starting to affect the ultra-rich.

Yeah, that's what made Smirky McChimp finally sit up and take notice. Guess the GOP supporters aren't mailing in their contributions like they used to.

Anonymous said...

C3 is behind the Summer Festival, Fall Festival, Munch and Music, Munch and Movies, etc.

>>>

DVA/VCB is behind Film-Festival, and all the stuff that is paid for by the taxpayer.

When you say 'movies' (DVA/VCB)...

C3 is just another name for the old players, DVA changes their name, like all of the PR firms in Bend, about twice a year, our three dozens PR firms change their name's and re-invent themselves, but they all feed at the taxpayer teat.

All the down closures are The Source.

Bend has over 2,000 realtors in a town of 70,000, there is said to be as many professional Public Relation 'creative types'.

It takes a lot of PR & Creativity to keep the bendbubble blown.

Anonymous said...

What about that Stock Market??

*

Duncan,

What follows is a philosophical rant on the Market. You brought up the tangent, its macro, Bend is more interesting, because we can grasp it.

This is exactly what happened after vietnam war, we were in debt, and nobody wanted the dollar, and in order to get foreign capital, which we need more now than then, we raised rates to 20% and they all came back to uncle-sam.

Today they're all leaving, but dems&repubs are in survival mode, they let USA go to shit during an election cycle, and a third party could be swept in, can't allow that to happen. So we postpone the day, the bill is still due, we just deferred it for two years.

*** break

I really think philosophically this is important, its the old Nader rant, there is no diff between dem & repub. They have BOTH made a mess of the economy.

Thus they'll band-aid until we get past the next election, there is no difference between hilly & mcCain ( guiliani's out ). This would be a perfect time for third "ROSS PEROT" type to swoop in, during the next year if they let us drop into a horrible recession. { Could still happen with Bloomberg, but he wouldn't be independent }

But NO, they'll raise FHA JUMBO to $700k, bring back zero-down party-on, ...

Trouble is the DOLLAR is dead, and now some will say that USA is done, I don't think so, as military study is my hobby. We have too many nukes to go down without a fight, we'll do a post vietnam 20% ROI that will bring the dollar back, but we can't do it until after the election.

Ramification?? DOW 5000, ... who cares inflation, ... Home prices will go up, for the next year JUMBO loans might move??

Then again the new package has to pass the senate, and DUMBYA has to sign it,...

I'm a life member of the NRA, and I still get their rag, and a year ago they were predicting hilly & guiliani. They were correct then, but guiliani just couldn't get the momentum. All these birds are going to take care of wall-street.

*

Effect on Bend?? Fuel will remain high, the SDC's will not be paid. Bend will lose population significantly over the next five years.

Anonymous said...


Bend Unemployment Jumps 36%

From the Bend Bulletin:

In the past two years, Bend resident Kris Kuchta has purchased a new home, celebrated the birth of his baby boy and lost his job.
After holding various jobs since moving to Bend from Greenfield, Calif., in 2000, the former laborer watched his carpet-restoration business struggle when onstruction of new homes slowed. To make matters worse, he aggravated an old neck injury last fall that forced him to quit his job. Since then, he’s been struggling to get healthy so he can return to work and stop relying on his wife’s income at St. Charles Bend and financial aid from family members.
Kuchta is one of the more than 5,000 unemployed Central Oregonians the Oregon Employment Department counted in December. December’s unemployment rate for Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties was 6.4 percent, according to the report, up from 4.7 percent last December, an increase of 1,800 unemployed people.
As Central Oregon’s economy adjusts to a slumped housing market, many workers have lost their jobs and are facing the daunting task of re-employment.
“Unemployment has increased due to the decrease in seasonal employment and the downturn in construction, which has also affected the financial industry,” said Patti Cook, WorkSource Oregon Employment Department business services supervisor in Redmond. “Many of these job-seekers are higher-skilled workers or those with great transferable skills and longevity in the workplace.”
Ann Delach, adult programs manager for Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council said the employment market’s supply-and-demand balance has reversed.
“A year ago, employers were calling us daily asking us to send anybody we can find,” she said. “Now, we’re seeing (job-seekers) who are looking for almost anything.”

Bewert said...

Re: ...there are 5% that just don't like to spend money.

Truth.

And we all took pride in being called cheap as fuck, (one of my favorites) "he'll show you a buck but you'll never get to touch it...", etc.

I still think that people need to be paid a decent wage for the 40-hour per week jobs that need to get done to keep society going. You can't buy enough to keep your family healthy, housed, and fed on $25,000 a year. If that takes unions, so be it. God knows most corporations aren't going to pay it if they can avoid it.

BTW, I couldn't believe that Old Mill parking BS either--"we didn't plan on a parking lot on the north side. People can park across the river and walk." I was there last Monday and it was impossible to find a parking spot. It sure didn't seem to be slowing down any.

Bewert said...

BTW, Timmy, the historical unions vs. NEA was a good one.

Touche.

So someone tell me what a $300 or $600 or whatever one-time rebate is going to do to save our economy from a much-needed correction? Does it make any fucking sense at all?

Anonymous said...

bruce,

is your wife still gone, you still meeting me over an abyss?

buster

Anonymous said...

Bruce, Your going to love this. ...

According to Oregon court records, on September 8th, 1995 the Nottingham Square Homeowners Association filed suit against William “Bill” M Friedman in Deschutes County, case number SC51469. On January 22, 1996 a judgment was order for “the return of service” against Mr. Bill Friedman. At least there is civil court record of a judgment against him. Would you allow him to keep your books for you?

Anonymous said...

Would you allow him to keep your books for you?

*

No, but I would make him Mayor, and then give him a public office for life.

I would give him the first right of refusal for all condo HOA management fee's in the city...

Why not, this is Bend, we're special, everyone here is special.

The average mgt fee for HOA is $25/unit per year, thus Ridgewater should have been less than $5k/yr tops total, yet over $10k was missing, ... It's go to get interesting when more HOA's start demanding to have their books audited by a third party.

Every CPA in the county is going to be busy forever, the recession is over.

Bewert said...

Re: is your wife still gone, you still meeting me over an abyss?

Anytime you want. I'm just building Motivators and debugging the XPlayer right now. I had to bring it into the present world of C++, and redoing all the stream IO isn't quite as easy as MS claims. Which doesn't much surprise me :)

Interesting history ole Bill has got there, from way back in 1995.

tim said...

I'll take fopen() over a C++ stream any day.

tim said...

I'll have an Abyss with you guys sometime. Good taste for how much alcohol it has in it. I think I still prefer a terminator for pure flavor considerations.

Anonymous said...

"Interesting history ole Bill has got there, from way back in 1995."
----------

They all suck. Big time. Since the early 90s.

Wasn't the treo of "Men Without Ties" a group of councilors that included the resigned-in-shame County Commissioner (the mad groper ala Packwood) DeWolf?

They all suck. Is Bruce Abernothing any better? Who cares, he's gone. Bill Fraudman? Next!!

So, if they all suck, then we need somebody who doesn't suck.

Who's it gonna be?
Mr. Pegasus?
Mr. IHTBYB?
Mr. BruceyPussy?
Mrs. BruceyPussy?

Come on!!! Be a man and step up to the plate. We need real leaders who can stand up to the Developer Lobby and say "NO!", who can stand up to all the other whiners asking for a handout (Les Schwab, HapTaylor, et al) and shout "Enough already! No!"

Where are you when we need you?

Anonymous said...

Who's it gonna be?
Mr. Pegasus?
Mr. IHTBYB?
Mr. BruceyPussy?
Mrs. BruceyPussy?




Hey, don't forgot Mr. Timtim!!

tim said...

Right. When a city is in trouble, where better to go find a mayor than with a talent search of stubborn bastards at the local bubble blog.

OK, Paul. It's getting weird enough now. Time for a new post! One day early dude, please?

Anonymous said...

If I'm elected free beer for everyone.

buster

Anonymous said...

C3 Events
208 SE Vine Lane Bend, Or

Is Bend evil or just the people who Own Bend? The truth is that by 2006 the bubble was over, and the city-hall OWNED by Hollern, PAPE, Smith, Homer-Williams, ... was desperate to DO ANYTHING in its power to attract MORE cali-retires. The PR-Marketing people running Bend DVA/VCB, Ralstone360(citrus), ... were convinced that the 'red-necks' had to be exterminated.

Thus the final solution, or last act of Bend, in its bubble implosion was dozens of minor-nuisance laws designed to exterminate the old-timers, grannys, red-necks, and homeless.

Anonymous said...

C3 Events 235 SE Urania Ave. 97702

208 Se Vine Ln
Bend, OR 97702
(541) 389-0995

OUR MISSION STATEMENT:Central Oregon Visitors Association will market and promote Central Oregon as a year-round visitor destination to improve the economic vitality of the region.

AudetteMedia was born and bred online. We are the product of over a decade of Internet marketing and Web strategy experience. We’re a small, focused, boutique Internet marketing shop. And we’re growing.

[January 08, 2008]

Lodging owners band together to attract visitors to Sisters, Ore.

(Bulletin, The (Bend, OR) (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Jan. 7--SISTERS -- Visitors often stop for a look at this small Western-themed town during summer, but they don't stay long enough to survey its diverse offerings, according to a group of lodging property owners who have formed a cooperative marketing alliance to encourage visitors to explore the area and stay awhile.

What’s the single most important thing you look for in a Internet marketing company? Think about it… there really isn’t a “single most important thing.” What there is, is a multitude of important things. But at the core, at the very center of it all, is the relationship. You want the person helping you achieve brand awareness, targeted traffic, and increased revenues to be someone you can relate to. Someone who’s willing to understand your perspective, goals, experience, and business.

Visit us in The Old Mill District at 661 SW Powerhouse Drive, Suite 1301, Bend, OR 97702.

Alana Audette
President & CEO
Alana@VisitCentralOregon.com

Maureen Mattingly
Event Marketing Coordinator
maureen@visitcentraloregon.com

Tim Marchant
IT & Web Manager
tim@visitcentraloregon.com

Kristine McConnell
Director of Communications
kristine@visitcentraloregon.com

Mike Patron
Vice President of Operations
Pacific Amateur Golf Classic Event Director
Mike@VisitCentralOregon.com

Laura Russell
Operations and Membership Manager
Laura@VisitCentralOregon.com

Visitor Information Specialists:
Kristi Richter
Kristi@VisitCentralOregon.com

Rachel Lewis
Saundra Eames
cova@VisitCentralOregon.com
info@VisitCentralOregon.com

Anonymous said...

Sister's Oregon Begins 10-day Sex-Camp
The Bulletin, (OR) Bend, Jan 25, 2007

The 10-day eco-tour idea could attract international tourists who are looking for ways to experience the Western United States in an authentic way, said Alana Audette, president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association. Audette met Wednesday with the Unique Properties Group about the concept and how COVA might help.

"Building a unique itinerary is a brilliant idea and it's practical for what people would be getting," Audette said. "But it's something that they're going to have to modify if they want to market the idea to domestic travelers because 10-day vacations in a small area are not as frequent. But it's well-suited for international travelers because they like to immerse themselves in their itinerary."

The Unique Properties Group would initially focus 80 percent of its advertising budget -- which hasn't been finalized -- on print advertisements from the Portland/Vancouver area to Eugene, Willitts said. Twenty percent would be spent in Deschutes County, he said.

Cooperative marketing is a common tool in Central Oregon's $498-million-a-year tourism economy.

COVA was founded on the idea that tourism-related businesses could leverage their advertising dollars with the public and privately funded tourism-promotion agency to attract more visitors to the region, Audette said. Additionally, larger tourism partners such as Mt. Bachelor ski area and the Sunriver Owners Association have formed partnerships with COVA, and seen their marketing dollars matched.

"It's a special model here [in Sisters], where competitors pool their resources to grow business for everyone," Audette said. "I'm proud that businesses have the vision to see this can be a powerful way to do effective marketing."

Anonymous said...

VCB PURPOSE
• Enhance the Economic Vitality of Bend Through the Promotion of Tourism
• Provide a Return on Investment of the Transient Room Tax Revenues
• Market the City of Bend Year Around
• Cultivation of an Excellent Visitor Experience
• In the Bend Visitor Center
• Via the BVCB Website
• Influence The Broader Visitor Experience
• Collaboration with Related Partners
– City Council
– Local Businesses
– COVA/State/National
– Hotels/Motels
– Attractions

Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau
FY 07/08 Proposed Budget
FY 06/07
Budget
FY 07/08
Proposed
Budget
% Increase
(Decrease)
Income
City Funding
811,800
852,390
5%
Interest
1,000
1,000
0%
Retail Sales
15,000
18,000
20%
Total Income
827,800
871,390
5%
Expense
Advertising and Marketing
459,600
478,500
4%
Auto Maintenance
0
2,000
Bank Charges
1,200
1,200
0%
Board Relations
3,500
1,000
-71%
Computer
3,000
5,000
67%
Conf./Training & Education
1,500
5,000
233%
Dues & Subscriptions
2,500
2,500
0%
Equip Lease & Maintenance
3,000
1,500
-50%
Facilities Use & Maintenance
50,000
46,500
-7%
Furniture & Equip
3,000
3,000
0%
Insurance
3,400
4,700
38%
Licenses/Permits
0
200
Meeting Expenses
2,500
2,500
0%
Mileage-Local
2,500
1,000
-60%
Office Supplies
3,000
4,000
33%
Personnel Expenses
260,000
272,290
5%
Professional Fees
15,500
24,500
58%
Retail Purchase
12,600
15,000
19%
Storage Rental
1,000
1,000
0%
Total Expense
827,800
871,390
5%

Bewert said...

Re: I'll take fopen() over a C++ stream any day.

Amen.

To say nothing about dealing with codecs ranging from MPEG2 to FLV.

Been buried in code all night. Anything good here?

Anonymous said...

\\|//

Bend’s short-sighted planning will have far-reaching effects
By Alistair Paterson / Bulletin guest columnist
Published: January 26. 2008 5:00AM PST

As a transplant to Bend from Kauai, Hawaii, I am struck by the similarities between the two communities. Both are about the same size, have approximately the same number of people and face the same growing pains and challenges, i.e. a rapidly expanding population base and an infrastructure struggling to keep pace with it. Additionally, they pride themselves on their natural beauty and their numerous outdoor athletic activities. Indeed, the prose in their respective tourist publications is so similar one might easily suppose it’s generated from the same source.

What puzzles me is why these wonderful places are so willing to surrender all the qualities that made them so special. There’s still hope that Kauai may retain some of its rural appeal, but Bend, based on its recent past, appears committed to a never-ending stream of new “community” housing developments. Even the most casual observer cannot help but note the large number of cheaply constructed tenement-style row houses that will certainly deteriorate into the slums of the future.

Somehow, developers have convinced the powers that be that these poorly conceived communities serve Bend’s best interest. While the real estate market was booming, their heavily promoted product was quickly snapped up by a naive audience of buyers easily persuaded that this would be their last chance to jump aboard the real estate express. With the continuing downward spiral of the market, however, these same developers are being forced to significantly discount their product. The result is that they cut even more corners in the building process and subsequently market the homes for substantially less money than they persuaded buyers to pay for them over the past few years. Potential buyers would have been well advised to remember the adage “the bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price has disappeared.”

The situation has deteriorated so dramatically that across the nation Bend is perceived as having been vastly overbuilt and on an inventory versus population ratio, the amount of unsold homes on the market is among the highest in the country. It’s well past due that the overactive promotional glands of the visitor’s bureau, the chamber of commerce and the City Council be tempered by these facts. Any more development is not only ill-advised but practically suicidal, at least until current inventory levels have been significantly reduced and infrastructure improvements catch up with the recent population explosion. To even consider allowing Juniper Ridge to proceed under the current conditions is essentially nothing short of criminal.

Yes — planning for future growth is prudent and appropriate, but it’s also essential that the city take off its rose-colored glasses and accept the reality that Bend has a crisis on its hands. The visitor’s bureau spends $250,000 on its most recent advertising campaign but ignores the fact that, thanks to this thoughtless development frenzy, there is no longer even an attractive approach to the city. Anyone driving into Bend — according to current promotional materials the land of blue skies, powdery snow, elegant fare, snow angels and sleigh rides — will instead face clogged roads, urban sprawl, commercial strip malls, enormous billboards, a downtown with the worst festive lighting display of any resort area, and a city sharply divided between the haves and the have-nots.

In more than 30 years of general real estate, I’ve never observed such a lovely community with so many red flags waving at the same time. The current proliferation of gated communities is one of the first signs of a city in crisis, as these only serve to further polarize and divide a community that is increasingly losing all sense of its original appeal and ambiance. I know the people who live in these enclaves will object to this description, but it’s quickly obvious that the vast majority of their residents are recent transplants who escaped to Bend only to work toward the destruction of everything that drew me here originally. If indeed the tourist bureau’s promotional material is to be believed, why are gated areas a requisite at all?

The impact of such short-sighted planning coupled with a nationwide real estate crunch will have far-reaching effects for the city of Bend. I believe it will be at least four years before the median real estate prices return to those of 2006. It’s vital to remember that sooner or later, you reap what you sow, and if there is not an immediate perspective adjustment at every level of planning and promotion, then the only thing requiring more money will be a minor name change and new entry signage stating “Welcome to Bend — a gorgeous little community until greed took the lead.”

Alistair Paterson lives in Bend.

Bend Economy Man said...

CACB:

As background, this portfolio represents loans made to developers for the purpose of acquiring raw land and/or for the subsequent development of residential lots. The nationwide downturn in real estate has slowed lot and home sales within the Company's markets. This has impacted certain developers by lengthening the marketing period of their projects and negatively affecting borrower liquidity and collateral values.



"Nationwide downturn." Yeah, right. In other words, "beyond our control," "out of our hands," "couldn't see it coming." Someone at BOTC's been talking to the lawyers...

OK, back to reality. What seemed more likely in 2005, mass hysteria aside:

Option A: that an isolated, small town with no significant economic base except homebuilding and tourism, over 100 miles from any Interstate, over 100 miles from any city with over 100,000 population, over 100 miles from any 4-year college, surrounded on three sides by hundreds of miles of open land, with a population topping 70,000 and a median household income of under $50,000, can sustain indefinitely a median home price of close to half a million dollars, and a property price runup of over 100% in five years is based on fundamental economic strength and is a trend expected to continue into the foreseeable future.

Option B: that when there's been a property runup of over 100% in five years and the median home price approaches $500,000 in a community as described above, a massive speculative bubble has been formed and asset values are unstable; a major devaluation of property prices is therefore expected.

tim said...

Option A, Option B...

Man, you're bumming us out with your facts and realism. An idiot ca dream, can't he?

Anonymous said...

Bend’s short-sighted planning will have far-reaching effects
By Alistair Paterson / Bulletin guest columnist


*

Holy shit has this guy been reading bend-bust??

The BULL has printed positions that have been posted here forever. What the hell took so long??

Will the city take heed? DVA,VCB, ...

I say an immediate cessation of all promotion budget. Kill free money to rich companys, e.g. no welfare to schwab, hollern, or capell.

Kill all non-essential city spending ASAP.

We're going down big and fast, and this doesn't have to happen.

Exactly my point all along, this is NOT a #1 resort, its a sea of Walmart, Costco, ...

BEND is FUCKED, but we could stop the fucking, we could turn it around before its too late.

Smart politicians better start putting their finger in the wind, and go with the program.

Anonymous said...

With the continuing downward spiral of the market, however, these same developers are being forced to significantly discount their product.

[ The developers are city-hall, and city-staff. ]

The result is that they cut even more corners in the building process and subsequently market the homes for substantially less money than they persuaded buyers to pay for them over the past few years.

[ Keep spending millions of taxpayer dollars on PR, there's 1,000's of PR people here that need employment. ]

Potential buyers would have been well advised to remember the adage “the bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price has disappeared.”

[ The race today to build cheap homes in Bend is most telling. For every $180k home Bend can build, then Redmond will do them for $120k, This is the race to zero. This is what happened in the early 1980's. The builder's started 'selling' the homes for $1,000 down, and 'private-financing', and didn't pay the Primary MTG, then one day the new owner got a DEFAULT-NOTICE. ]

People never learn, Anything goes was Bend's recent past, and now its anything goes.

There is plenty of affordable rental housing in Bend, the poor don't need to OWN a depreciating asset.

We have a town that ONLY exists to enrich developers, and the only way to do that is to SELL HOMES. Trouble is there is product saturation.

I have been predicting this 'tenement scenario' for a long-time, yes this happened in Palmdale, CA in the 1980's they built tens of thousands of homes, and many of the subdivisions simply were burnt down to film hollywood movies. Bend doesn't have to be doing this.

The citizenry doesn't have to make the developer/builder the 500LB gorilla that runs city-hall, and city-staff.


Once the plug is pulled on all this city money used to promote 'Bend as a brand', then and only then will the voice of the working man, or retiree be heard over the voice of professional PR&Marketing.

Anonymous said...

"Exactly my point all along, this is NOT a #1 resort, its a sea of Walmart, Costco, ..."

Yup. And with a rather shitty climate to boot, despite the propaganda about "300 days of sunshine."

BTW I'm trying to find out where and how that particularly piece of puffery originated. Anybody have any ideas?

Anonymous said...

I'm trying to find out where and how that particularly piece of puffery originated. Anybody have any ideas?

*

The part about from "Kauai' is highly suspicious, and the notable comment about both being ran by the same PR firm, in terms of promotion and rhetoric being the same.

Think about the Mt-Borealis deal a few weeks in the SORE, this was well written and a pun on developing MT-B.

The MORE interesting question, is why did the BULL print it????

There are excellent but tired points. Certainly #1 is that in spite of ALL the promotion about Bend being an Aspen, in fact the target is that of a poverty stricken desert Island whose HUB is Walmart/Costco.

I think its a wake-up call to those running PR/Marketing ( or at least spending taxpayer dollars on such ). The PR isn't working, and building SHIT, is the solution to selling the over-supply of mcMansions. Which is the real problem. The real problem is the homes in these gated community's, and they're NOT selling.

I think another wake-up call was that story about out in East-Bend how they're still going to crank out a sea of $180k( $120k or lower ) crap-shacks, that will be welfare meth-labs for years to come. It must be the scaring the hell out of people who have invested 100's of millions in Bend being 'branded as Aspen', to in fact become "Burns with too many crap-shacks".

The PR ain't working, the BIG message is "we're sending the same talk as Kauai, but at least Kauai is a paradise, BEND is NOT! The disconnect between 'what is', and 'what is said' is 180 degree's, and the truth is a person of wealth only has to spend a minute in this town to see the facts, in spite of www.visitbend.com, or www.gobend.com.

What Bend IS, IS a very sad little community being 'fast-tracked' to bankruptcy. The printing of this letter is the BULL's first attempt to start a debate.

The trouble is like, Homer has articulated, the 'builder/developers' running this town really do have a 6th grade education, and thus NO AMOUNT of logic will win the day. The collapse of Bend will be 100% emotional.

In summary the 1,000's of 'creative PR types', in this town see that their MILLIONS & MILLIONS cash-cow is ending, what is going on is a reality check,... HOW IN THE FUCK do we re-brand Bend and sell what we have???

This is what is going on.

Something MUST be done quick, with 24 resort golf courses, and another dozen coming online in one year, they ain't going to sell if something is done quick about the 'real life' fact that Bend is just a Desert Island with a Walmart HUB.

tim said...

You can't re-inflate a souffle.

There is no avoiding pain. The two remaining forces in Bend are:

1) Those who want to have the crash hard and soon and get it over with.

vs.

2) Those who have "just one more" big deal they want to do so they can save their asses.

Anonymous said...

"The whole Source story [about the Inn of the 7th Mountain] is from the point of view of Friedman start to finish ..."

Absolute bullshit. There are extensive quotes from Peter Bours and other condo owners. Learn to read, asshole.

Anonymous said...

"The PR ain't working, the BIG message is "we're sending the same talk as Kauai, but at least Kauai is a paradise, BEND is NOT! The disconnect between 'what is', and 'what is said' is 180 degree's ..."

Yup. Unless you're really into snow sports and/or enjoy having 10 months of winter a year, Bend doesn't have much going for it.

A hell of a lot of Californians and VPs (Valley People) who bought $500,000 crap shacks in "paradise" two years ago must want to blow their brains out this winter.

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