Sunday, November 4, 2007

Town of Sisters Fix for Flagging Economy? "WHITES ONLY!"

I've maintained for awhile that the best Leading Indicator of where this Global Credit Crunch, Forced Liquidation Nightmare is headed, is Great Britain. Real Estate Bubbles the World over climbed earlier, and broke earlier than it did in the U.S. So if British troubles are any indication, we should start reading about people making mortgage payments using their credit cards.

The $915B bomb in consumers' wallets

Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates, reports Fortune's Peter Gumbel. Why some fear this could be the next subprime.

If there is an international precedent the U.S. should be watching, it's actually that of the U.K. British consumers are just as overstretched as Americans, but since the real estate market there rose faster and fell earlier, they're about 18 months ahead in the credit cycle. Since the last quarter of 2005, credit card delinquencies and charge-off rates in Britain have risen as much as 50%, forcing banks to take huge write-offs.

It's a sign of the times that, according to one survey last month, 6% of British homeowners have been using their credit cards to pay their mortgages. That's suicidal, of course, given that credit card interest rates are more than double even the heftiest mortgage. Keep your fingers crossed that it's not a trend that crosses the Atlantic.

And even better, The British underestimate their unsecured credit card debts by around half:

British consumers underestimate their debt to the tune of £100 billion

June 2007 - UK - According to latest research from MINTEL many of those in debt are burying their heads in the sand, and completely underestimating how much they owe on credit cards, personal loans, overdrafts and other unsecured, non-mortgage loans.

When Brits with unsecured, non-mortgage loans were asked to estimate the amount of money they have outstanding on these loans, the average came to £5,251 per person, an incredible £5,050 short of the official figures held by the Bank of England (£10,300 of unsecured debt per borrower). Worryingly, this suggests that, on average, consumers owe almost twice as much as they think they do.

With almost 21 million adults (43% of the adult population) now owning some form of unsecured loan, this means that in Britain today there is over £100 billion worth of unsecured debt that Brits are simply unaware of. Considering this lack of awareness, it comes as little surprise that only one in five (21%) people with unsecured debt are worried about the amount they owe.

By contrast, when mortgage holders were asked to estimate their mortgage loans, the average was £92,200, which is almost exactly the same as the figure given by the Bank of England and mortgage lenders of £95,000, suggesting that people have a much better handle on their mortgage debt than on their non-mortagage borrowing.

"While Brits do seem to have a good grasp of their mortgage borrowing, they are wildly underestimating the amount of money they owe on credit cards and loans. Clearly, it is a lot easier to keep an eye on a single mortgage, than it is to juggle a couple of credit cards, a personal loan, a car loan and maybe even an overdraft as well," explains Toby Clark, senior finance analyst at MINTEL.

So what's the next market to fail massively? It looks like credit cards:

So are U.S. credit cards going to be the catalyst for the next seizing up of the global credit markets? It depends on whom you ask.

"We are in a heightened state of alert to monitor a potential domino effect," says Michael Mayo, Deutsche Bank's U.S. banking analyst.

Dennis Moroney, an analyst at TowerGroup, expects credit card delinquencies will rise as consumers, who have until now used home-equity lines of credit to pay off their cards, start ratcheting up higher card debt. When housing prices were rising, it was easy for consumers to tap the escalating values of their homes to keep borrowing. With the home-equity spigot turned off, over-leveraged consumers may have trouble keeping up with payments.

The doomsday scenario would play out something like this: Just like CDOs and other asset-backed securities, credit card debt is sliced, diced, and sold off again as packages of securities. Rising delinquencies would hurt not only the banks involved but the securities backed by the credit card receivables. Those securities would decline in value as consumers defaulted, leading to bank losses as well as portfolio losses in the hedge funds, institutions, and pensions that own the securities. If the damage is widespread enough, it could wreak havoc on the economy much as the subprime crisis has done.


In Britain, people don't even know what they owe. And they're borrowing more for just "consumerism"; they're buying junk. All over the World, people have started borrowing from Peter (the Credit Card guy at 33%), to pay Paul (the Mortgage guy at 8%). Obviously this makes ZERO sense from a financial standpoint, so it is being done out of pure desperation. The World seems to be reaching some sort of cataclysmic Minsky Moment.

I don't go in for the Worldwide Collapse stuff much, it's sort of non-specific, and like "Deep Impact", it leaves little discussion except putting your head 'tween your legs. But someone posted an interesting comment last week:

America is imploding, thanks to the Bush administration and the rampant Republican corruption. The funniest thing is that voting Bush is having the exact opposite effect the Bush voters thought it would. Instead of Bush defending America, its values, their wallets etc, he's utterly destroyed them. It's like death in slow motion. If we attack Iran, the problems will worsten. And this will actually be good for the USA. As we lose our economic clout, our superpower status will go with it. Widespread poverty and deprivation will finally end the consumerist nightmare that America has become. Thanks Bush and Bush voters! You've accomplished what no stupid liberal ever could, you've destroyed the American status quo, the American consumer. You've enthroned everything you claim to hate. What a show, quit worrying and just watch it unfold..

Shouting about Bush being a total wank is getting sort of old, I do it myself. But the ultimate outcome of this Bubble Crunch could well be a Worldwide Complete Collapse in our financial markets. TRILLIONS have been loaned to people who will NEVER be able to pay it back. Banks periodically do this; South American countries, Bible belt developers (which ended in the S&L bailout).

In both these instances, the borrowers were FAR worse off than when they started. Brazil collapsed into hyper-inflation, the S&L collapse probably left Texas worse off than the oil implosion. No matter the "natural beauty" of the borrowers, they were decimated.

“State by state, the economic costs from the subprime debacle are shockingly high,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and the chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. “From New York to California, we are headed for billions in lost wealth, property values and tax revenues.”

The much bigger losses will be in declining real estate prices. Household real estate currently totals about $21 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve.

Global Insight, a research firm, predicts that the national average for housing prices will drop 5 percent over the next year and 10 percent before mid-2009, for a total of about $2 trillion. Economists at Goldman Sachs have predicted prices will drop by 15 percent, meaning an overall decline of more than $3 trillion; other forecasters have said the decline could be 20 percent or more.

House prices decline slowly, because many potential sellers simply stay in their current homes when they think prices are too low. But that becomes more difficult as people have to move either because of job changes or, increasingly, because their monthly payments are rising sharply. In the next 18 months, interest rates on more than two million homes loans will reset to higher adjustable rates.

We still have not seen bottom. We're in the vicious self-reinforcing decline part of an unprecedented credit contagion-collapse cycle. It's been pointed out mathematically that NOTHING can grow at even modest growth rates for LONG periods of times. $1 compounding at just 5% since the time of Christ, would grow to $2.4 million trillion trillion trillion today. Even at todays $800/oz gold prices, that's an amount of gold larger than this planet. Global financial discontinuities (Total collapse) aren't just likely, they are mathematically inevitable. They WILL happen, they have to happen.

Like I said, I don't like the macro-collapse talk, because it seems to have a moot point at its terminus. But never have so many owed so much, so far beyond their capacity to repay than what we owe today.

So Britain is a good Leading Indicator of where this thing will go on a Global Scale, what about locally? Again, I have long maintained that the Town of Sisters will be the best leading indicator of where the local RE implosion will take us.

In my occasional perusing of The Nugget, I found this:

Sisters economic summit turns testy

Some participants suggested that Sisters has an elitist attitude, or certainly some locals do. Not everyone agreed an elitist attitude is good for Sisters.

Mayor Boyd went on to indicate that if companies or people cannot afford to be here, they should not come.

"We have to be careful not to say that Sisters is all about mountains, rivers and scenic views. We need to say that we do want industry here. We need to indicate that we aren't the same as other towns," she said.

Bill Mintiens, chairman of the Sisters Economic Development Committee, has stepped back and taken another look at the scene believing that perhaps the perception of Sisters as an elitist community could be an asset.

"Maybe we should truly market Sisters as a tourist destination and forget attracting family/living wage employers like Redmond, Prineville and Madras have done. Maybe this is something our residents and city officials can embrace, as they don't seem to be able to embrace attracting other kinds of employers. Maybe in this way our 'elitist' image in Oregon can become a positive attribute," he told The Nugget.


Yes, an ENTIRE TOWN that considers themselves "elitists"... and WANT IT TO CONTINUE. And just so you know what "Elitism" means: It means Status Quo, Boss Hoggdom, WHITES ONLY. You only really hear about the "diversity" vote from people who need it. These are basically small business owners who realize that if Whitey is the only types that can afford Sisters, that WHITEY will have to sling cappuccinos, make beds, and bag groceries. And Whitey HATES doing that shit.

Sisters is the purest embodiment of Boss Hogg thinking you'll ever see. Big fish in an exceedingly small pond who will do whatever is within their power to keep themselves in that position, including kill everything else in the pond... even other Boss Hogg types. This is what's happening. People in Sisters are turning on each other, The Big Fish are eating the little fish, and the little fish are eating each other.

Go to the "Letters" section of the Nugget, and you see it in high relief: People sniping at each other about almost Everything. This was most assuredly NOT the case 5 years ago. Letters to the Editor were little old ladies thanking each other for birthday presents, and quilts. No more. Sisters has become a poster child for what happens when an area wins an economic lottery, just like when siblings are heirs to a shrinking fortune: infighting, sniping, hate, and misery.

If you want to know how we'll ALL end up, just look to Sisters, a town tearing itself to pieces over the scraps of the RE bubble. And what's funny is that very few people even understand the causal connection between the increasing scarcity of economic opportunity and the rising tide of interpersonal meanness. It's printed in black and white:

Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO) hosted a workshop at FivePine Conference Center last Thursday to attempt to find some common ground with local residents for economic development in the flagging economy. Concerns flowed quickly, unimpeded by political correctness.

Remember the Broken Top battle? Get used to it. Prop 37, if not undone by Measure 49, will simply ensure that this place is blighted Forever by unimpeded, uncoordinated development. Of course there is already NO DEMAND for this development, but To Hell With You will be the rallying cry, and people will throw their money into an endless blackhole. Re-read that Top 10 Disasters list of last week. That is just the tip of the iceberg.

OK... moving on...

Paul-doh try to help out local builders, developers & sellers in every way he know how. Slash price today to 20% below the lowest PPSF in your neighborhood, sell 'er wholesale, and Jump Off Bridge, being amongst my recommendations.

Well BendBB came out with his monthly stats, and you can actually see that one or two of these points should be followed sooner rather than later. To wit, we see that the well-to-do up on the North Rim of Awbrey had a exceedingly high opinion of themselves and their real estate, with a price per square foot MINIMUM of $576/sf back in June. We all know that people who can afford that sort of mega-shack have been completely untouched by this whole sub-prime, credit collapse, bubble implosion thing, right?

Well, maybe. But that didn't seem to stop the rock bottom PPSF ask to decline 26% in the last 4 months, down to $426/sf! Yes, that's -26% in 4 months. And that's on The Same Home's, not an aggregate decline. And what's this? Looking a little closer at that brutal 26% markdown will do any Bend RE Bears heart good: We see it's MLS 2610909, Debbie Tebbs (the lesser of 2 evils down at Cushman & Tebbs, IMO) spec house on the North Rim that started the Summer up around $2.5MM, and is now dragging slum-ass bottom at $1.9MM. And there's More Good News! Debbie seems to have Thrown In The Towel on turning Cushman & Tebbs into a Fort Knox of RE Value preservation: This is the 10th Price Decline on this property, A NEW RECORD! Good job Debbie.

There is more evidence that the Numb-Brain stupid aftereffects of massive Kool-Aid poisoning are beginning to wear off: The lowest PPSF up in The Glorious Plaza was $748 on MLS 2607352 back in June. Today, Becky Breeze is suffering the same ill-effects that our finest President, Abe Lincoln, suffered after his 7 day drunk:

"I FREED THE WHAT?"

Yes, Becky has marked that badboy DOWN over 35% in the last 4 months. There have been similarly large declines in Awbrey Butte (MLS 2706130, down 20.4%, from $250/sf to $199/sf), Skyliners Summit (MLS 2708344, down 18.2% from $159/sf to $130/sf), Broken Top (MLS 2705856, down 17.3% from $365/sf to $302/sf), and the dreaded Northwest Crossing (MLS 2705973, down 20% from $216/sf to $173/sf). So it is not just some edge-case slums over on the East side that are dragging us down. It's exactly what I said: It's the LOWEST priced properties that are setting the trend. The worst declines are seen amongst those who imbibed the most Kool-Aid, and bought into the thing at Dead Ass Top, Tebbs & Breeze being 2 of Many.

"REB", over on BendBB, posted this addendum to Doug Farmers recent data:

I just ran an MLS search for October stats. Bend, single family homes on less than 1 acre.

Active 1420
sold 104
Avg price $401,043
Med price $319,950 Crying or Very sad
DOM 115

I figured it would finally start to slide soon and this is the real evidence. Oct 06 the med. was $361,500 and # sold was 118.

I am not sure what parameters Doug uses. When I added townhomes, condos and manufactured the med. was almost the same. I'll run it again in a few days so I pick up all of the sales that haven't yet been reported to MLS.

And then this:

Oct 07 105 res. units sold in Bend
Oct 06 118

Oct 05 249
Oct 04 239
Oct 03 193
Oct 02 137
Oct 01 121
Oct 00 108
Oct 99 95
Going into the abyss(sp)

Medians BELOW $320K, and unit volumes imploding to 1999 levels, when Bend was FAR SMALLER, so per/capita sales have probably sunk far below the WORST levels seen in this area in DECADES. REB finally stuck in a Burrito-validation statement near & dear to my heart:

Under 300k median is just around the corner.

When I predicted this WAYYYY back in the Spring, the ever optimistic BendBB took me up on it, and threw a burrito at Parilla into the mix. Medians back then were $350-360K, and predictions of Doom & Gloom were not NEARLY as thick as they are today. Folks, when will you learn to Do What Paul-doh say?

1) Sisters, just kiss your collective asses Goodbye. It's too late. Your city fathers did all in their power to get you to where you are. Now you'll all begin to feed on each other as the resource pool begins to rapidly dwindle. Finally the Big Fish will start to feed on each other. Sisters will ultimately go broke.

2) Flippers, mark it down 25% below the LOWEST PPSF TODAY. Go check those MLS numbers posted above, that shit is Dead Real. The collapse is being fed on the downside, what is selling (and there ain't much), is the rock bottom, dead cheapest stuff in the neighborhood. And it can't just be a "little cheap"; it has to be COMPELLINGLY cheap. Paul-doh told you to slash-and-burn back in April, May, and July. But No, You went bobbing for apples at the Bulletins Bi-monthly Kool-Aid Festival, and now you're close to Cracker Ass Cracker Broke. $1 below rock bottom PPSF won't get 'er done anymore, you gotta MAKE 'EM WANT IT. That's 25% BELOW the lowest PPSF in the hood. If not, you'll get the Breeze-Tebbs Effect: Owning worthless ass flipper bait that you have cut and cut and cut... and still NOTHING.

(And just an aside: Breeze has a print price of $499,900 on The Plaza, in this weeks Homes and Land magazine. That's $40,000 BELOW the lowest MLS price of $540K. Do not offer ANYTHING more than 10% MINIMUM below ask folks, if you're crazy enough to buy. You should really start ALL bids at 30% BELOW ASK, MAX. Even then expect to lose money on resale, if such a thing is possible in the next 1-2 decades.)


Folks, The Collapse of Bend has begun. It's too late to get out "Good". You'll be lucky to get out at all. Check my spreadsheet of Doug Farmers data. The months of inventory is stuck near ONE AND A HALF YEARS. The Dream is Over. Medians have fallen from $380K in May to $330K in Oct. Industry is collapsing or fleeing. Sisters is losing virtually every single living wage job that is still clinging on for dear life in that town. And guess what, the powers that be want to stomp on their fingers and let them plummet into the abyss. Bend's City Fathers are not much better. We are simply reaping what we've sown. We put all our chips on RE, and have rolled snake eyes. It's Over.

But if you must, you can escape this collapsing hell hole:

Mark it down 25% BELOW the LOWEST PPSF in your neighborhood. Then expect to be LOWBALLED for another 20% below that. Then count yourself lucky. Cuz after that, The Next Guy will lose even more. Abandon ALL HOPE of RE making a DIME in this Country in the next 2 decades.

178 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Housing-related economic pinch is bruising Sisters

By Joseph Duerrmeyer

As the slowing economy begins to affect Central Oregon, the housing slump is setting up the area for some belt tightening.

Home sales in Sisters are off approximately 40 percent from the high market, according to the latest MLS figures.

The first to feel the pinch are those who are connected to the housing market, be they realtors, property managers, mortgage brokers, contractors or developers. Housing inventory is still on the rise, and length to sale times continue to increase in the Sisters area.

Even the Black Butte Ranch market, long thought to be immune to the slump, is beginning to tout price reductions. Across the Sisters area, advertised real estate prices have been dropping in increments of $10,000 to $20,000.

Available rentals are also at an all time high in the area, and even the formerly stable Sisters rental prices are beginning to soften. Rents in one Sisters neighborhood went from $1,250 to $1,050 for a single-family home.

The problem had its origins in real estate speculation, which drove prices in the area to unsustainable highs. With the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market, the effects spread quickly to other areas, most notably the jumbo loan market, which encompasses loans that are made in excess of $417,000 and are a substantial portion of the local Sisters' market.

There does not seem to be much relief on the horizon.

"As a mortgage loan officer in Sisters, Redmond and Prineville, I can only say that the inventory is going to continue to grow as long as sellers maintain speculatively high prices. That is a real problem because prices are too high to begin with," said Bill Mintiens, chairman of the Sisters Economic Council and former loan officer with US Bank.

Also a problem is the decreasing availability of loans for buyers, which has thrown an additional wet blanket on the housing market. "We were supposed to close on the 25th (of August)," said James Brummond, formerly of Sisters. "When all the stuff started happening with the lenders, we lost our loan which was all approved. So then we had to go back to work to try and find different lenders. I am happy with what (the loan) we finally got and are excited to move in, but I heard that a lot of people were not able to get new loans when the ones they had fell through."

The rental market is beginning to affect speculators, as well. Many homes were purchased with the belief that they could be rented to subsidize mortgage payments, allowing investors to ride the tide of increasing home prices. However, with the rental market also suffering, many speculators are now beginning to feel the pinch which in turn is contributing to the decline in prices of both home sales and rentals.

"We have quite a bit of (rental) inventory compared to last year. Quite a few of them (rentals) are sitting vacant and have been sitting vacant through the whole summer. The market really comes to a stop by the end of September. The homes that are empty by the first of October are likely to stay empty through the winter," said Debbie Dyer of Ponderosa Properties, the area's largest property management company.

The rental slowdown came with the general malaise in the housing market.

"It seemed to slow down around the same time as the real estate market slowed way down. When July and August came along, we really just stopped renting houses. We have rented a few here and there, but August is always our biggest month with people getting ready for school, and we were really slow. We rented a little less than half as many as we did last year," said Dyer.

The first effects of the slowdown are being felt in the secondary tier of economic impact. The Sisters School District failed to meet its 2007-08 student enrollment projections. In fact, district wide enrollment is down by approximately 50 students and kindergarten enrollment has dropped by almost 50 percent (see "Enrollment down in Sisters schools," The Nugget, October 3, 2007, page 1).

Housing is a factor in the fall of enrollment.

"The elementary school population is dropping in Sisters because prices are just too high for young families, many of whom are leaving the area. It is one thing to have a good inventory of homes, but if no one can afford them it is not going to get any better," said Mintiens.

The only possibility for short-term relief on the horizon will occur when prices are reduced enough to begin to remove inventory from both the "for sale" and rental markets.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

State will hold back school funds

By Tia Duerrmeyer

Sisters schools asked the chief of Oregon's schools to reconsider withholding $1.2 million in state school funding from Sisters in the wake of a disallowed homeschooling program.

She reconsidered - and her decision stands.

Oregon State Superintendent of Public Instruction Susan Castillo has reaffirmed her order to withhold $1,208,286.15 in State School Funds (SSF) from the Sisters School District.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Can your kids return to Sisters?

By Bill Mintiens

Will your kids be able to return to Sisters to live and work?

This is a dilemma understood but rarely addressed in our community: too few employers offering too few jobs at family/living wage levels and a lack of "affordable housing."

On May 1, I gave a presentation at the inaugural Sisters Business Summit & Job Fair held at the FivePine Conference Center. One of the major points I made was that Sisters, over the 15 years that I have lived here, has lost more family/living wage employers than it has gained.

Some examples: Micromonitors, founded in Sisters, moved to Bend, 40 jobs; Alpine Internet, moved to Bend, 10 jobs; Northwest Telemarketing, moved to Bend, 55 jobs; Weitech, sold, 90 jobs; Multnomah Publishers, sold, 60 jobs; Good Family Magazines, sold, 15 jobs.

Simultaneously, housing prices have escalated and affordable housing in Sisters Country is seriously lacking. Here is some data (courtesy of Housing Works, Redmond). The area median income for a family of 4 living in Deschutes County in 2006 was $58,800. The affordable rent for this family was $1,470/month - and apartment vacancies are hard to come by in Sisters. The affordable purchase price of a home for this family was $179,330.

Although we all realize there has been a "softening" in the real estate market this year, here's a reality check:

Median Sisters Home Price quarter one 2007 - $415,000; Median Sisters residence with acreage - $782,600; Median Sisters Townhome/Condo - $256,100; Median Sisters Manufactured Home - $230,000.

Can you guess why elementary school enrollment is decreasing?

Ray's Food Place is struggling to attract and retain employees at their current location due to high commuting costs (fuel) and the inability of staff to afford housing in Sisters. And now they need additional staff for "new" Ray's...

Sisters needs to retain and attract companies with living/family wage jobs.

I believe that Sisters' economy is out of balance, heavily weighted toward retail and tourism - both offering primarily low-paying jobs.

We now have two beautiful "business parks" on the north side of Sisters just waiting to accommodate a variety of mixed uses (businesses and apartments/homes). But nothing is happening with those parks because no one is proactively soliciting/coercing potential businesses to consider Sisters.

"City Hall does not have the staff time to focus on business recruitment or retention," stated Brad Boyd, Sisters Mayor (The Bulletin, March 20, 2007). The chamber operates with a staff of three - far too few to handle business recruitment.

It's my belief that Sisters needs to adopt the model successfully employed by both Redmond and now Prineville: an Economic Development Director.

This director, whether full or half-time, oversees all elements of a multifaceted effort unique to Sisters Country but parallel to EDCO's (Economic Development for Central Oregon) outreach efforts for business recruitment, expansion and retention activities involving a systematic process of contact, assistance and follow-up. The director is project and/or client-based to provide solutions, one company at a time, relating to workforce issues, business finance, marketing, access to incentive programs, real estate development and other factors impacting businesses.

Attracting and retaining the appropriate businesses to Sisters helps everyone. Vacant offices are filled. Homes are sold. More goods and services are purchased. Schools are filled, and our tax base is increased.

But I believe we need to get proactive - and soon. Redmond, Prineville and even La Pine are actively recruiting while we do nothing.

Contact your city councilors: www.ci.sisters.or.us/city_council.shtm or the chamber director: manager@sisterschamber.com, attend council meetings or volunteer for one of the many committees available.

Don't we all want our kids to return one day?

Bill Mintiens is the chairman of the Sisters Economic Council and former loan officer with US Bank.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Enrollment down in Sisters schools

By Tia Duerrmeyer

Mrs. Kamrath's kindergarten class has 17 students. photo by Tia Duerrmeyer
This summer, a two-room modular was added at Sisters Elementary School and two new classrooms were constructed within the existing walls at the middle school to accommodate a projected district-wide increase in enrollment of 3.6 percent this year.

When Sisters schools opened their doors last month on September 4, the additional 50 students the district was expecting were nowhere to be found. Instead of having more students this year, Sisters School District actually has fewer.

According to calculations the Sisters School District released on Thursday, September 20, enrollment is down by 54 students.

Even though the district did not receive the approximately 50 additional students it expected this year and in actuality lost more than 50 students, Drakulich is confident the district will continue to grow.

"Just drive around and look at the housing starts around here. It's true that nationally there's a dip in the sales of new homes and Oregon is certainly starting to feel it. Sisters may be feeling it a little bit, but there are houses being built everyday all around here, and they will bring children. The question is how quickly those children will be here," she said.

Drakulich told The Nugget that it is difficult to single out one year's numbers as a sign of a trend.

"One year like this is very difficult to judge. I think the projections are accurate. They were done by looking at housing starts, looking at the average number of students and the prior houses that were sold. Unless those houses sit vacant forever, we'll have children in them. It's a question of when," she said.

Even though the impact the lower enrollment will have on the district is hard to quantify, it is easy to see that benefits are being realized by the lower enrollment.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Even though the district did not receive the approximately 50 additional students it expected this year and in actuality lost more than 50 students, Drakulich is confident the district will continue to grow.

"Just drive around and look at the housing starts around here. It's true that nationally there's a dip in the sales of new homes and Oregon is certainly starting to feel it. Sisters may be feeling it a little bit, but there are houses being built everyday all around here, and they will bring children. The question is how quickly those children will be here," she said....

I think the projections are accurate. They were done by looking at housing starts, looking at the average number of students and the prior houses that were sold. Unless those houses sit vacant forever, we'll have children in them. It's a question of when," she said.


Look at that. They are assuming that If You Build It, They MUST Come. This Drakulich has obviously never been decimated by a Bubble collapse... Already denying what is staring her in the face.

I post these news items on Sisters, just because I think this is what's coming to Bend. An enormous glut of homes for sale & rent, in the face of "unexplained" population DECLINE. No, not "flat growth" I know you love that Timmy), but actual NEGATIVE GROWTH (That, even more). Sisters is a town literally collapsing.

And what's this? Some are actually starting to acknowledge the causal link to the RE Bubble.

WATCH SISTERS FOLKS. If you want to know just How Bad It Will Get.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Too little, too late...

Sisters economic summit turns testy

"Personally I dislike an elitist attitude," local artist and entrepreneur Kathy Deggendorfer later told The Nugget. "For a community to be healthy, we need to have good diversity. A community that can't support people from all social and economic classes becomes very stagnant. We need to attract small businesses, perhaps those that might only hire one or two people. Having an economic development director that could take a proactive approach and follow up on leads would be a huge asset, but it is probably not realistic in this economic climate."

This is what I mean by It's too late for Sisters. They are so broke-ass broke, they really can't save themselves. And hiring a Economic Development Director would be a 100% waste of money anyway; like selling Eskimos refrigerators. The minute any business leader hears the Medians, and the No Infrastructure story of Sisters, they'll walk.

When you get a RE Bubble... DIVERSIFY, or you will DIE. Sisters is going to DIE. Bend is not far behind.

Anonymous said...

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++++++

Juniper Ridge Q & A: Answers to questions about Bend’s ambitious planned development

By Lily Raff / The Bulletin

Perhaps now more than ever, Central Oregonians are struggling to understand Juniper Ridge — the urban utopia that the city of Bend has envisioned northeast of town. Until last month, the city was poised to partner with private development firm Juniper Ridge Partners to realize that vision. But a recent dispute could mean the end of the partnership. And if the developers walk away, they could take with them the master plan that has been ballyhooed.

This is the first installment of an occasional series addressing questions about Juniper Ridge, with answers based on interviews with those involved. Visit www.bendbulletin.com for more information about the planned development.

Q: What is Juniper Ridge?

A:Juniper Ridge is a 1,500-acre piece of land owned by the city of Bend. It’s located east of U.S. Highway 97 and north of Cooley Road. About 500 acres of the property are located within the city limits. The rest of the campus is outside the city limits. And, at least for now, it’s not within the urban growth boundary — that imaginary line around the city that designates where new development is supposed to happen.

Right now, the land is mostly bare, except for a couple of roads and a new building under construction to house the headquarters of tire giant Les Schwab.

But the city of Bend has high hopes for this swath of sagebrush — a lively neighborhood full of high-paying jobs, various housing options, a research university that educates the work force and fosters creative entrepreneurship, shops and restaurants, a performing arts center, and parks and trails.

Q: What is planned for Juniper Ridge, and whose idea was it?

A: Today’s plan for Juniper Ridge as an urban archetype for life, work and play has been a long time coming.

Juniper Ridge was once public land managed by the federal Bureau of Land Management. In the early 1980s, Deschutes County swapped several parcels of land with the BLM and acquired Juniper Ridge.

The land was intended to provide industrial space for the city of Bend, said Mike Maier, who was Deschutes County administrator at the time.

“I don’t think anyone ever anticipated that it would take 25 years, and the land would still be covered in sagebrush,” Maier said.

Back when the land was first sold to the city, plans for it weren’t terribly specific — some industrial space and some parks. Deschutes County sold the property to the city of Bend in 1990, for $1.

“The county wasn’t out to get money back then. It was trying to get the economy going,” Maier said.

The deal came with a few caveats — the city would have to undergo a public process and adopt a master plan for the entire parcel before it could be developed, and at least 10 percent of the parcel would have to be public parks.

In 2003, the city and county amended their agreement. The new agreement said that 500 acres — one-third of the property — would be designated for industrial use and could be developed before the master plan for the entire parcel was adopted. The agreement also stated that the portion of property reserved for parks could instead be generically designated “open space.”

These changes were made because city officials had grown tired of the idea of another industrial park. Instead, they saw the vast undeveloped space as an opportunity to create something more compelling and profitable for the city.

The City Council hired consultants in 2005 to collect public input and devise a general idea of Juniper Ridge, called a “concept plan.” The plan listed elements that stakeholders wanted most from a new development — a university, new employment opportunities, a town center and a variety of homes, townhomes and apartments.

Next, the city solicited proposals from various developers interested in forming a partnership with the city to make the vision a reality. City councilors assessed the three proposals received and voted unanimously to work with a development company specially created for this proposal, called Juniper Ridge Partners.

This company then hired a team of experts to draw a detailed plan for the property. An architecture and design firm based in New York City, Cooper, Robertson & Partners, divided the property into segments best suited for residential, industrial, commercial and university uses. Engineers from ARUP and landscape architects from JT Atkins & Co. helped lay out roads and open space.

These plans were shared with the public in a series of open houses. The developers collected input from people who attended the open houses and incorporated some of their comments into the plan.

The proposed master plan for Juniper Ridge — which may or may not be implemented, depending on how the city’s relationship with the developer unfolds — circles a densely developed “town center” situated on a man-made lake. Low-, middle- and high-income housing are within walking distance from shops, restaurants, offices and industrial space, according to the plan. As more of the project area is developed, a secondary town center will be built a few miles north of the first one. Eventually officials hope to lure a university into building a campus between the two town centers.

Q: Who are Juniper Ridge Partners?

A: Bend residents Ray Kuratek and Jeff Holzman comprise the company.

Kuratek and Holzman worked most recently for a larger company that is redeveloping a historic racetrack in San Mateo, Calif., into a mixed-use community.

Kuratek’s development career started in the 1970s with Columbia, Md. — a suburban planned community that James Rouse designed in the 1960s and that revolutionized subdivision planning.

Kuratek had been living in Bend for four years when the city announced it was seeking a master developer to help design and build Juniper Ridge. Kuratek decided to throw his hat into the ring and called Holzman, who was still living in the Bay Area, for help drafting a proposal.

“He fell in love with this concept,” Kuratek said.

Eventually, Holzman asked if he could join Kuratek in his bid for master developer. Their proposal was unanimously selected by the City Council from three proposals received.

Holzman moved to Bend, and the pair started working full time on Juniper Ridge.

The pair brought in AIG Insurance as a major investor in this endeavor. Juniper Ridge Partners had this connection because Holzman’s college roommate from Stanford is now an executive at AIG.

Q: What happens if the partnership between the city and the developer, Juniper Ridge Partners, falls through?

A: Several things could happen if the two-year partnership is severed. City officials have worked so far with Juniper Ridge Partners according to a preliminary agreement, which basically says that the city may only negotiate with Juniper Ridge Partners.

Their negotiations broke down two weeks ago, when a new manager hired by the city determined that the city was taking on too much risk. The developers balked and accused the city of trying to change the terms of their agreement at the last minute.

Regardless of how the two parties proceed, we’ll have to wait for answers to two major questions: How much money will the city have to pay Juniper Ridge Partners? And what will happen to the master plan?

At least one city official has suggested that the city would retain ownership of the master plan if the developers back out now.

But other city officials and Juniper Ridge Partners have argued that the city would jointly own the plan if and only if it enters into a more formal agreement with the developers.

In that case, the city may have to start over by selecting a new master developer and drafting a new master plan. Or the city could try to buy the master plan from Juniper Ridge Partners.

Q: I don’t live in Juniper Ridge, so why does Juniper Ridge appear on my property tax statement?

A: Because city councilors in 2005 voted to create an urban renewal district around Juniper Ridge to raise money for roads and other infrastructure. Once an urban renewal area is designated, a complicated tax structure kicks in, affecting the property taxes of the entire city — or, in some cases, county — where the urban renewal area is located.

Oregon law allows a city or county government to establish an urban renewal agency to generate tax dollars for the redevelopment of rundown or blighted areas. Criteria for “blight” is pretty loose. Juniper Ridge, which is almost entirely undeveloped, qualifies. So do downtown Bend, Redmond and Sisters and the Redmond airport — the other four urban renewal areas in Deschutes County.

The Juniper Ridge urban renewal area also includes some nearby existing development, like the Lowes Home Improvement store that sits across U.S. Highway 97 from the future Juniper Ridge campus.

When a government defines the boundaries of an urban renewal plan area, it also establishes an urban renewal agency to collect and spend tax dollars. A complicated tax rate is calculated each year to fund the agency.

“It’s based on the new growth in that plan area,” said Scot Langton, Deschutes County assessor. “And there’s a lot of nuances in how it works.”

The urban renewal agency tallies all of the property taxes that new growth in the area has generated for schools, the library, law enforcement and other tax districts. That sum indicates how much money the urban renewal agency is authorized to collect.

The total amount is divvied up, and a percentage of it is allocated to each taxpayer in the city, whether they live in the urban renewal area or not.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We haven't seen it yet, but we're coming DAMN CLOSE: sub $100/sf regular Single Fam Homes in Bend. Here is MLS 2706478 at $365,000 for 3,390sf, or $107.67/sf. This is the lowest PPSF for a SFH (no 1/4 shares, or other BS like that) that I can find in Bend.

Looks vacant, so you could probably whack the seller below $100/sf.

Bend Economy Man said...

The timeline in the Bulletin "Q&A" is almost hilarious in its inaccuracy. And not inaccuracy based on rumor and conjecture, but inaccuracy based on the facts that The Bulletin has already reported.

This paper has a lot of chutzpah, and little respect for our intelligence! Or at least it thinks that we are all Alzheimer's patients with memory-retention problems.

What about the fact that the bidding process in which Juniper Ridge Partners' proposal was "unanimously selected by the City Council" was for the 500-acre industrial park, not the entire parcel, and JRP won with a non-conforming bid?

What about Stockbridge, the first investor, which backed out?

What about the 20% annual return that would be guaranteed to AIG? Might that be at least as important to AIG as Holzman having been college roommates with an AIG executive? When you're talking about a 20% guaranteed annual return, really, who's doing whom the favor here?



The story above is THE most misleading thing I've seen The Bulletin print for a while. And when you realize that The Bulletin has plenty of juicier, more informative facts IN ITS OWN STORIES, you wonder - what's this article aimed at? Seems like it's aimed at making Juniper Ridge Partners look like perfectly reasonable businessmen with whom there's a relationship worth salvaging.

Duncan McGeary said...

Even so, it shows the evolution of a boondoogle. It shows how the bubble psychology infected everything.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“He fell in love with this concept,” Kuratek said.

Fell in love with the concept of spanking the city for $60K a month, or the $2.5MM bailout? If I were him, I would have also fallen in love with the "concept".

Anonymous said...

Sisters is owned by the real estate cartel. That is the only industry that they have. You are either employed by the RE & MTG industry, or the School District, or you are a self employed telecommuter.

And the RE cartel owns the Scool District. (See the last School Board election for evidence). The RE folks kept repeating the mantra "Sisters Schools are the Best"; "...located in the renowned Sisters School district." etc etc etc. The sad fact is that many people moved to Sisters (both from in state and outta state), enrolled their kids in the schools, and found out it was a lie!!

The Sisters Schools are average at best. High class sizes, mediocre teachers (with a few excellent ones thrown in), problems with funding TAG, etc. So people who were lied to, actually pulled their kids out and have left the district. They paid big home premiums to get their kids in a "great" school district, and found out it was really quite average, with average teachers. The only thing above average is that the community really does pitch in for the schools. Above average school foundation donations (StarryNights), above average parent volunteerism in schools.

But the real estate machine over sold the "Sisters Schools are Great" mantra, and thus over inflated the home prices.

Seven years ago, Sisters medians were behind Redmond, which was behind Bend, which was behind SunRiver. Sisters has leap-frogged both Redmond and Bend, and is just behind SunRiver for home prices, all during the bubble years. And mainly due to the RE hype of great schools.

What goes up will come down (and is coming down), and come down hard.

Anonymous said...

I have heard that the real estate bubble in Sisters wasn't the Schools being over hyped, but was also due to the sewer coming online, right about the same time seven years ago. The sewer and the combination of chopping lot sizes into teeny-tiny lots of 5000 or 4000 sqft really destroyed that little town of twinky lights.

Now, neighborhoods have some old houses with medium or large lots, right next to 'infill' lots with row houses, du- or tri-plexes and other crammed in houses thrown together haphazzardly.

Peter Storton is the current BossHog wannabe of the town, but all of his real estate is ghetto bait ramshackle low quality housing. At least when Bill Reed was around his real estate was built to quality standards, since he owned his own, and built for the long haul, renting out to the constant flow of tourist based businesses that came and went.

It is kinda sad what has become of Sister today. But sad or otherwise, the higher they rise, the farther they fall.

tucker said...

I feel blessed to be quoted now twice in you rants. Once under a different nam de plum:).If you need the truth in stats I am here.
REB

Anonymous said...

"Personally I dislike an elitist attitude," local artist and entrepreneur Kathy Deggendorfer later told The Nugget. "For a community to be healthy, we need to have good diversity. A community that can't support people from all social and economic classes becomes very stagnant."

This coming from a woman that just got back from a trip to Hawaii that she took on her Mommy's(Gert Boyle -- Chairwoman of Columbia Sportswear) private jet!

tucker said...

In defense of Kathy Deggendorfer, she is one of the hardest working women I have known in Bend. I have known her for over 20 years. She didn't take Timmy's(her bro's) job in corporate Columbia. She choose to open a seconds store here in Bend on Division when we really needed a store that you could buy warm clothes..cheap.Cuz she wanted to be in CO. If Gert wants to take her on vacation..it's her luck..don't be a snob. She isn't.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sisters Conflict of Interest issues even infect school fund raising:

Company offers healthy fund-raisers


By Susan Springer
Correspondent

The Sisters couple had raised money for their kids' schools one too many times by selling cookies, candy and lollipops. Finally, Rob Corrigan and Merry Ann Moore thought there must be a better way. So they created Buckboard Provisioning Co. which provides healthy foods for sale as fund-raisers by schools and other non-profit groups.


Then....

School board chair resigns amid turmoil

By Tia Duerrmeyer

In the midst of difficult times for the Sisters School District, Rob Corrigan resigned from the Sisters School Board on Friday, January 19.

Corrigan's written resignation was unanimously accepted at the board's meeting held Monday evening, January 22. Corrigan did not attend and when contacted by The Nugget he declined to make any further comment beyond his letter of resignation.


Yup, ain't nut'n like having the wife start a School Fund Raising business, and not disclosing the fact (notice they have DIFFERENT last names) as you run for Chairman of the School Board.

EVERYONE in Sisters is a crook.

Anonymous said...

She is not the only trust fund artist hanging out in Sisters. That place is full of it. Latte liberals doing the starving artist thing in their million dollar mcmansions.

Anonymous said...

Mary Ann Moore is a woman that likes nothing moore that to read her name in the local newspaper. And her husband, Rob Corrigan, jumped ship the minute things on the Sister's School Board got a little hot. No, they're not crooks, they're just not NEARLY as bright as they think they are.

Timothy said...

The Bulletin's illustration of Juniper Ridge sure looked pretty. Gosh, maybe I should actually be in favor of it. It's like a beautiful dream. Who could say no to that?

Anonymous said...

It look like Ron Garzini and Bendbb are going to get married.

Tonight at the Deschutes pub, Ron is going to ask.

Anonymous said...

Homer says that Sisters show's the way.

I say NO.

Sisters has a paper that prints everyones opinion. Bend has ONLY the opinion of Brooks via its BULL&SORE.

There is NO printed opposition in Bend.

Sisters is airing out their laundry, they'll have everything turned around, Bend will be swallowing in the toilet, and still denying the smell of shit.

Homer, your completely wrong.

What Bend needs is a NUGGET, so that everything can be put on the table.

timmy said...

It look like Ron Garzini and Bendbb are going to get married


Ron is a lucky man.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sisters is airing out their laundry...

I know, it's actually totally amazing. The Nugget used to be FAR WORSE as far as whitewashing stories. Dolson was the whoriest of RE whores. 199% of Nugget revenue comes from RE. I do wonder what his motivation is for suddenly turning? It's a damn small town, and I think the rage over graft-ridden Boss Hogg-style admin in the City & schools has finally hit the boiling point. I think Dolson is catching hell from 95% of Nugget readership who are tired of the town being run like a rich mans fiefdom....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ron is a lucky man.

I think it's fair to say that both men have succulent butt cheeks.

Anonymous said...

The deal came with a few caveats — the city would have to undergo a public process and adopt a master plan for the entire parcel before it could be developed, and at least 10 percent of the parcel would have to be public parks.

*

When does the public process start?

Having Brooks Resource ( Garzini, Hit Men Inc. ) develop the entire process in secret, and then pay the BULL taxpayer dollars to market, is hardly a public process.

How come we still don't know the terms of the Les Schwab sale.

The entire payback of tens of millions in Taxpayer dollars to make JR usable to developers is on the back of the taxpayer. The theory is that sales of land will pay back the city for subsidizing Les Schwab, but LS paid NOTHING for the land has ALL infrastructure subsidized by the city.

Since the COMP value to date for JR is still $1, how can we assume that any city money will ever be recovered.

Why must Brogman CEO of LS suck the Bend Tit like a pathetic welfare mother?

Anonymous said...

Bem,

You bring up Stockbridge, but DO YOUR HOMEWORK.

There is NO such thing as Stockbridge, that's just another fucking Ray Kuratek, LLC.

Do you fucking homework.

Kuratek bamboozled city hall with the promise of money, he said 'such and such shell company of mine will finance', and they went for it, trouble is the money wasn't coming.

They tried to package the deal and sell it to Pennsylvania has a retirement investment for their public-retirement, but the deal fell through.

That's why a year later Kuratek, finally found AIG for 20%, that fell through.

The only reason the city ever worked with Kuratek was because he had access to money, so he said. It's obviously not true, and folks got tired of the run around.

When in the fuck will you cunts demand that the city release all the secret deals between city of bend, and les schwab,

What about Garzini's plans for prison labor?

Everything is going according to plan.

At least Sisters has folks that care, ALL of Bend is middle age white guys like Bendbb.

Bend is beyond sad.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another wonderful testament to the Wonders of Boss Hogg Administration that Les Schwab was able to go in and somehow bend the city's arm behind it's back, secure a site in JR -- despite the fact that a Master Plan was supposed to be adopted BEFORE ANYONE was allowed to locate there. Does anyone else find it strange that everything going forward with JR will have this "Except for Les Schwab" clause tacked on the end? So how much will be spent to make JR safe for habitation by One Company?

Yes, this ad hoc, Boss Hogg, grifter style management will ultimately break us.

Anonymous said...

Sisters is airing out their laundry...

I know, it's actually totally amazing

*

Ok, and BEND is NOT even fucking close.

The Oregonian yesterday ran a six page story called "Bend Oregon, A Real Estate Collapse".

The FUCKING BIG-ZERO, is telling the truth, but in Bend its still everything is fine, Juniper-Ridge is our only solution to all problems. Same for the SORE, everything is FINE.

Sisters is going to clean up their mess quick, I suspect its because there are people in Sisters that care. Nobody gives a shit about Bend, thats why its going to become a prison destination resort for debtors.

Sisters doesn't want to go the way of Bend, they don't want a tire flipping company to be their fucking anchor, they want to maintain what they 'had'. Bend on the other hand is headed being a LA-PINE with sky-scrapers, aka Mexico City.

No, Sisters will do just fine, I can see they care about their town.

Bend is ALL get rich quick cunts. Composed mostly of pederasts like Bendbb.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From the Nugget Letters to the Editor:

To the Editor:

I would like to express my utter disgust at News Channel 21's portrayal of us homeowners in Tollgate affected by CEC's abominable power pole upgrades.

When Alicia Schaab, Adrienne Banks and I were contacted by News Channel 21 to show our homes and tell our story, we thought our concerns for the beauty of this landscape and the health and well being of its residents might be of interest to others concerned about development in the area.

To portray us as a few ladies in a subdivision with nothing better to do than complain about a few power poles and high voltage power lines was extremely insulting, demeaning and misleading.

Like Roger Ritchie, I am also offended by Allen Guggenheim's patronizing remarks that "the needs of 6,000 trump those of six residents." The people in this corner of Tollgate are many more than six residents. Come to think of it, are we not all affected ultimately by this degradation of the landscape?

In a subdivision where all the power lines are buried and where the color of the tarp over your firewood is of aesthetic concern, in a town which values aesthetics to the point of adhering to a strict architectural style, I am dismayed and saddened that we as a community would allow this to happen.

But then again, nobody knew because our electric cooperative failed to inform us. If CEC is truly a cooperative, shouldn't we have been consulted and our voices heard? Not only did they fail to inform the residents, they also neglected to acquire the proper government permits and are currently being investigated by the county.

Please Sisters and all of Central Oregon, take note. It is our community and our future at stake. Ask questions. Demand answers. We can do better. We deserve better.

If more electric power is truly necessary, then let's demand that CEC aim higher and find ways to provide it that don't dehumanize the very people it purports to serve, nor denigrate the lands on which we all live.

Please feel free to contact me at americkel@bendcable.com.

Abby Merickel


The "portrayal" of these "abominable" people in Sisters was simply dead accurate. Here is the KTVZ piece:


Power struggle: CEC upgrade upsets Tollgate residents

By Eric Rucker, KTVZ.COM

Central Electric Cooperative officials say the new, taller power poles in the Sisters area's Tollgate subdivision will benefit 6,000 customers, but some residents aren't too happy about it.

The people we talked to Tuesday say not only are the new poles an eyesore, they're ruining their livelihood.

The emotion running through Abby Merickel is electric.

As an artist working out of her home in Tollgate, she knows the value of a good visual.

"I don't think i can live here any longer," she said.

Merickel and some of her neighbors are livid that CEC is installing power poles and a substation in their backyard.

"We are gong to have a substation, with the accompanying buzz and wires that go along with it," said fellow resident Adreanne Banks.

CEC says the new poles and substation are upgrading the output in the area fom 69,000 to 115,000 volts, to meet the demand of an ever-growing area.

"The requirement for electricity of 6,000 people in the area trumps the aesthetic outlook from windows of six residents," said CEC Member Services Director Alan Guuggenheim.

Without the upgrades, he added, a power outage in the area could potentially go from a few hours to possibly days.

Like Merickel, Alicia Schaab also works out her home and understands the need for the increased power, but just doesn't like the fact it's happening right out her window.

"We had a nice view of the North and South Sister, and now it's just power lines," said a distgusted Schaab.

The ladies also claim they can feel the electricity from the new poles and are concerned about health effects of the substation, but CEC says there is nothing to worry about.

"They are much more susceptible from common household appliances, including their vacuum cleaner, their hair dryer, the microwave oven, than they will be from a 115,000-volt power line that is some distance away from them," Guggenheim said.

But even if power needs aren't a concern these neighbors say the vision before them has taken a major turn for the worse.

And while the cooperative says it has every right to proceed, Deschutes County says it failed to get a land use permit. The CEC official said they had yet to receive the letter regarding the county's allegations.


This is actually toned down from the TV piece. These intolerable whiners were saying their KARMA was destroyed, they were getting SICK from the AESTHETIC INTRUSION of the power poles. The looked UNBELIEVABLY PATHETIC because THEY ARE. At least they had the wherewithall to recognize their own selfish, greedy nature on screen when they saw it.

Sisters is FULL of people like this. But there are a scant few who are absolutely embarrassed beyond belief when they see it. THESE people are leaving, which is unfortunate, because they are obviously the only ones in tuned with reality.

Anonymous said...

So how much will be spent to make JR safe for habitation by One Company?

***

Rumor is over $60 Million.

The best part is water and sewer, is going to be passed back to ALL water&sewer users in Bend. Rates for everyone are supposed to double.

The original estimate for Les Schwab water was $5M, now revised to $10M, to be paid BY ALL CITIZENS OF BEND.

Yes, everything is secret, and everything moving ahead that has "LES SCHWAB" marked on it!!

Lets NOT forget that it was Garzini & Kuratek that put the LS deal together and the city council didn't know LS was the anchor until the 12'th hour, and only had one house to approve.

Estimates are the total welfare subsidy to short Brogman's commute will cost Bend $100 Million dollars, to be recovered by RE sales of JR. Trouble is we ONLY have two comps of Jr, first was was $1, and second was ZERO ( LS deal ).

They're going to PUSH the plan and get it all going, and once its clear there is no initial $60M repayment for LS infrastructure, thats when the Federal Bureau of Prisons steps in and offers the solution.

All these politicians going along have been promised to have their political careers taken care of, this is why Abernethy was converted. This is also why Hummel resigned.

If we had a paper like the NUGGET then people would know what the hell is going on.

Anonymous said...

"Sisters is going to clean up their mess quick, I suspect its because there are people in Sisters that care."

"Sisters doesn't want to go the way of Bend, they don't want a tire flipping company to be their fucking anchor, ..."

"No, Sisters will do just fine, I can see they care about their town."
--------------

Sisters people care?

Who cares, Ms. MeeryAnn Moore? (about how many times her name appears in the paper)?

Who cares, Mr. Peter Storton?, (about how many large lots he can subdivide into teeny tiny lots, with crappy shacks crammed onto them)?

Maybe Mr Jeff Taylor cares? (about his profits on converting the RV park into another strip mall at the North entrance into town)? (Maybe extracting gravel from rock mines wasn't enough for Hap Taylor's kid, now he's moved on to mining Sisters for his gold)

The people "who care" about Sisters are the ones who are screeming to remove the city mgr because she doesn't say yes to their every demand to destroy that town. And they don't "care" about Sisters, they only care about how much money they can extract from that town.

Anonymous said...

Sisters is FULL of people like this. But there are a scant few who are absolutely embarrassed beyond belief when they see it.

++++++++++++++++

Sisters is (now) full of people from California who came here over the last 10 years, and helped create the overpriced real estate. And they brought with them their great Cali ideas and values.

The near timers (15yrs), semi-old timers (20-30yrs) and the real old timers (40+ yrs) are not very happy with what it has become and what it is becoming.

The new comers who came the last few years are now the ones shouting the loudest about what they think Sisters needs.

They should just go back home to Cali, but will they?

Anonymous said...

"The new comers who came the last few years are now the ones shouting the loudest about what they think Sisters needs.

They should just go back home to Cali, but will they?"


They can't. They're stuck. Well, many of them are.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Showing Me The Money just got harder:


Unprecedented tightening in lending standards: Fed
Banks raised standards for all types of borrower seeking all types of loans


By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

Last Update: 2:05 PM ET Nov 5, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - This summer's credit squeeze prompted an unprecedented tightening in lending standards at major banks, according to the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of bank lending officers.
Major banks made it much tougher for all types of customers to get loans over the past three months, the Fed reported, providing some fresh details on how bad the credit crunch was.
As credit standards toughened, demand for loans also fell.
Residential mortgages were harder to get than at any time in the 17-year history of the Fed's survey of banks' senior loan officers, the Fed said. The survey covers 52 domestic banks and 22 foreign banks, which together account for a majority of bank lending in the country. Read the full report.
Credit standards tightened for borrowers with the best credit, with 40% of banks requiring prime borrowers to jump over a higher bar before receiving mortgages. That's the biggest increase in tightening standards ever recorded. In the July survey, just 15% of banks reported higher standards for prime borrowers.
Even more banks were clamping down on borrowers trying to get nontraditional or subprime loans. For nontraditional loans (often called Alt-A), 60% of banks raised their standards, and 55% of the banks that offer subprime loans raised the bar for such mortgages. The vast majority of banks don't offer subprime loans at all.
Despite the bankruptcy of dozens of lenders outside the banking system, about half the banks on net reported weaker demand for residential mortgage loans.
For jumbo prime loans, which are given to borrowers with good credit who want mortgages about the conforming limit of $417,000, about 55% reported fewer orginations, and about 50% increased their lending standards.
The credit crunch extended far beyond subprime, the survey revealed, hitting commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, and lines of credit to back up commercial paper. Banks also tightened standards for consumer loans.
For commercial real estate loans, 52% banks tightened their credit standards, the biggest increase since the early 1990s. About 35% of banks reported lower demand for commercial real estate loans.
For commercial and industrial loans, about 19% of banks tightened standards for large customers and 10% for small customers, the biggest increases during this business cycle. Almost all the banks pointed to a weaker economic outlook as the basis for tightening standards, while few said they were doing so because of concerns about their own capital reserves or balance sheets.
About half the banks tightened their standards for credit lines to back up asset-backed commercial paper, the market that was hit hardest by the credit squeeze. Outstanding volumes of asset-backed paper have plunged by more than 25% since the summer.
Credit standards for consumer loans other than credit cards tightened at the fastest rate in more than 12 years. Standards for credit cards were largely unchanged, but standards for other types of loans were increased by 28% of the banks.

Bend Economy Man said...

They should just go back home to Cali, but will they?"


They can't. They're stuck. Well, many of them are.


You bet they are. Bend is like the Tar-Baby Town for those who moved here from areas of greater opportunity. Look for this to be a theme, if not in the news, then in church, backyard BBQ and bar conversations in the next 18 months or so.

There are plenty of people who are qualified to do something that's either not needed, underpaid or too high-competition in Bend that moved up here on California home-sale profits and ended up selling houses, building houses, opening a destined-to-fail small business or telecommuting to their old jobs (or even REAL commuting, flying back to the fam on weekends).

And all of these things are pretty precarious. But they're handcuffed to Bend now. If they leave they're not back to Square One, they're back to Square Zero. Square One was when they were in California with plenty of home equity and had choices. For a lot of newcomers who bought in the deepest, the only way they're leaving Bend is renting a storage unit for the furniture (or selling the furniture) and hitting the road like the Joads with their whole lives jammed into their cars.

I've been saying since I started my blog that Bend needs newcomers because otherwise it just bleeds people. During the housing boom it bled fewer people - I know, because LOTS of the people I graduated from high school with are builders, developers, Realtors and so on, some prominent, most not - but for the college-bound crowd, at least half of those who leave never return.

But what is the MVHS/BSH/Summit High Class of 2008 supposed to do except for leave? I mean, really, without real estate development or a career or wealth you've built for years or brought with you, what is anyone supposed to do? In an oblique way this is a challenge the town fathers are trying to answer with Juniper Ridge and so on, but it's never framed that way.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

in the news, then in church, backyard BBQ and bar conversations

This is exactly why I quit going to bars.

What you learn there has been run through a Church first. If I wanted to know what crazy fuckers thought, I'd go straight to the source: An asylum.

Bend Economy Man said...

This is exactly why I quit going to bars.

What you learn there has been run through a Church first.


I figure one more Simpsons reference on this site can't hurt. Remember that moment in The Simpsons Movie when the news hits that Springfield is screwed, and all of the people in the church run into Moe's, and all the barflies at Moe's pour into the church?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In an oblique way this is a challenge the town fathers are trying to answer with Juniper Ridge...

Implicit in this statement is also possibly The Real Problem with Bend:

You have to WAIT for opportunity to be created here, it seems virtually impossible to do it yourself. They've had 17 years w/ JR... and nothing.

People come to Bend to die, not live. Pretty soon they won't even come here to die.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You have to WAIT for opportunity to be created here, it seems virtually impossible to do it yourself.

Oy, scratch that. Even I can't tolerate that level of victimization....

Bend Economy Man said...

You have to WAIT for opportunity to be created here, it seems virtually impossible to do it yourself. They've had 17 years w/ JR... and nothing.

They for sure would have had something if they'd taken even 100 acres, just put in water and sewer and a couple of electric transformers and a normal grid of streets, connected it to the highway by a cloverleaf and zoned it industrial. By now there would be warehouses, distribution centers, a few places making truck canopies or aircraft parts or lawn furniture, a few auto and boat repair shops, you know, not quite a "vision," more like "jobs."

But that's not good enough for a lot of people because the kind of blue-collar mainstay employers described above are what the CURRENT workforce of Bend needs. Juniper Ridge is for the FUTURE workforce of Bend, that is, the kind of people we want to ATTRACT, not the kind we already HAVE. So we're going to have a Hank Scorpio-designed corporate campus where the offices of Bend's innovators will have south-facing windows overlooking a manmade lake, easily accessible from the surrounding townhomes by foot, bicycle, golf cart or hydrogen-powered car, and of course enveloped by a wireless Internet cloud.

Oh, and a world-class university.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Marge: Mr. Scorpio, this house is almost too good for us. I keep expecting to get the bum's rush.
Hank: We don't have bums in our town, Marge, and if we did they wouldn't rush. They'd be allowed to go at their own pace.

Ron Garzini said...

I'm so excited its monday and you know what that means.

Today is the big bash to celebrate me and Benbb's wedding announcement.

Gary Fish of Dechutes has given us the Mountain Room this evening.

You all are invited .

Many of you have asked about the Bendbb promiscuity issue, and I can tell you we have a pre-nup, but if I showed you, well I would have to kill you.

p.s. I think the city of bend is going to pick up the tab tonight, as we're going to have the editor of the Bend Bulletin.

Anonymous said...

Here is MLS 2706478 at $365,000 for 3,390sf, or $107.67/sf!

Today, it is now at $335k or 102 per square. I am thinking that the builder is about to lose it! This is a great deal for someone that NEEDS 3400 sq. ft.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone else find it strange that everything going forward with JR will have this "Except for Les Schwab" clause tacked on the end? So how much will be spent to make JR safe for habitation by One Company?

*

Nothing is SUPPOSED to happen @JR until state & county approval, yet we're told that JR construction has already started.

We the pubik of bend have no idea what crown-jewels of ours has even been promised on our behalf to king borgman.

Where in the hell is the outrage. Like homer said almost six months ago the bring ...

rubber r&d
tire flipping univ
lug-nut rotation engineering

a great step forward, and note, there isn't any design review, nothing, everything is secret!!!!!!

It's like Borgman & Garzini met over a few beers five years ago in a dark alley in Redmond and had an epiphany.

Anonymous said...

This is a great deal for someone that NEEDS 3400 sq. ft.

***

BULLSHIT, anything over 1200 sqft is TOO much house.

There is a negative factor once you go jumbo, and once you go +1200sqft for heating-maintenance costs.

Here we go again, depression 101 RE biz, the BIG houses fell the MOST, expect them to fall to 1/2 compared to smaller homes.

$800k homes will fall to $300k or less, while $300k home may fall to $200k.

Nobody can afford to heat a 4k sqft home, and thus nobody is going to buy one, and especially NOT a renter. All things these days are selling as 'lease-option', remember JUMBO is gone.

Yeh, great you can by a 3400 sqft crap-shack for 100sqft, around $350k, but they'll take $300k, but WHY whats it really worth in ten years??????? ZERO.

Anonymous said...

destined-to-fail small business or telecommuting to their old jobs (or even REAL commuting, flying back to the fam on weekends).
*
This is what KURATEK did here 2001-to-2005 before he secured a local job. He commuted weekly to Stockbridge in San Mateo.

Theres an interview with him a few years from the BULL in which he says he makes the flight weekly, so he can spend weekends here, but the BULL says he moved here in 2001, but he didn't live here until post 2006.

Anonymous said...

I think the folks that came here the last 2-3 years from cali to sisters & bend will get hosed and move on, they'll leave, they have nothing here, once their RE is under water, they'll walk away, its already happening, that why so much stuff is empty,

I agree that the loudest in sisters might be the calis, but that who the news likes to interview,

The old timers probably live on old streets, and old farm land, these tv crews go to the new subdivision which are +90% cali, they buy that shit because it reminds them of home,

They'll leave, there's nothing here,

As we have said before they don't know how to live off the land

Anonymous said...

The city council wasn't told the Les Schwab was the anchor of JR until the 11th hour, and they only had ONE HOUR to approve the deal.

A deal that is STILL secret.

Will someone steal copy of that agreement and let us plaster it all over the world???

Will someone please post this request everywhere??

Anonymous said...

...The Nugget used to be FAR WORSE as far as whitewashing stories. Dolson was the whoriest of RE whores. 199% of Nugget revenue comes from RE. I do wonder what his motivation is for suddenly turning?...

Perhaps it's because he's going to lose his precious Nugget to an ex wife, and he doesn't give a shit about who he pisses off now.

Anonymous said...

Leave poor Eric alone...
...still going through a divorce, and not having many a fun day.

From his blog (eyeonoregon.blogspot) in July/Aug:

Money woes here:
"The man who wanted to buy our beach lot, he withdrew his offer. It would have solved the last issue in a divorce still high-centered on the rock of assets versus income."

Dumped by his girl friend (before the divorce is even final!) here:

"That wasn’t the only crash. Lauren came by late on Friday to say our relationship wasn’t working for her any longer. She arrived in tears, would not let me speak, did this most courageous thing most beautifully. It had become messy, ill-defined, the kids could not understand. Through her pain she organized, she compartmentalized, she's a lawyer after all, she filed me."

Anonymous said...

Perhaps it's because he's going to lose his precious Nugget to an ex wife, and he doesn't give a shit about who he pisses off now.

*

"A newspaper should have no friends"

"Tell the truth and run"

- George Seldes

Those were the days of fine papers. Today ALL is controlled by RE cunt, and of course the fucking worst cunt of all is the pathetic electorate parasites. That be you folks, we have met the enemy, and he/she is US.

Anonymous said...

1200 sq feet is kinda small. I'd say 2000 sq feet is closer to reality for families. Big houses you get screwed on utilities and taxes. The best house is the smallest one you'll be happy in.

Anonymous said...

JUST TO REMIND YOU GUYS.

What is going on in Bend with Juniper Ridge is NOT new, its quite common down in Arizona, every little desert shit hole has a developer, builder, contractor who dreams up a BIG project, gets it going by saying, ..."Hey lets sell that public park, and use the cash to build a water slide", ... Of course who profits is the guy who hauls gravel, and runs dump-trucks, ... This is BEND, ... Juniper Ridge is an excuse to spend tons of money we don't have, and to sell off our un-wanted or un-used public land.

WHAT PART doesn't City-Hall understand that you cannot SELL public to a third party in SECRET and NOT disclose any information on the sale??

Anonymous said...

So what we're saying here is if Aaron Switzers dog runs off and leaves him, then he'll also come honest?

If that fucking poodle of Costa @ the BULL runs off with a Great Dane, then the BULL will change tune?? Is this so??

Anonymous said...

1200 sq feet is kinda small. I'd say 2000 sq feet is closer to reality for families.

**

FUCKIN CALIS look a fuck around the OLD Bend mill homes were 800 sqft tops, that how they made it, and the heated with wood,

It would take a fucking cord a week to heat 2,000 sqft.

Folks lived in cold country, only because they kept it small.

1200 sqft is MAX, 800 sqft is idealistic,

Go ahead, spend 50% of your income on heating, I don't give a shit.

All the old mill houses were less than 1,000 sqft, much less. This whole fucking idea that you 2,000 sqft is just another cracker idea of white trash trying to emulate daddy-warbucks, well guess what white trash, eat your 2,000 sqft house when you go hungry or cold.

Anonymous said...

The Question:

What is the average home size in the U.S.?
The Answer:

According to the National Association of Home Builders, the average home size in the United States was 2,330 square feet in 2004, up from 1,400 square feet in 1970.

Anonymous said...

"...FUCKIN CALIS look a fuck around the OLD Bend mill homes were 800 sqft tops, that how they made it, and the heated with wood,..."

Most of the old mill houses were little shit boxes...and they leaked their precious wood stove heat like sieves. They had crappy insulation and you could heat one of today's 2000 sq/ft. homes with half the wood.

Anonymous said...

"Leave poor Eric alone...
...still going through a divorce, and not having many a fun day."

Poor Eric is an arrogant prick. He thinks he's God's gift and his people skills are non existant. In short, he treats people like shit and is not well liked in that town. He's getting what he deserves.

Anonymous said...

Brooks auction.Who won?

Anonymous said...

Brooks auction?What happened?anyone.anyone at all!!

Timothy said...

>>Brooks auction.Who won?

The only possible winner could have been Brooks.

Anonymous said...

Most of the old mill houses were little shit boxes...and they leaked their precious wood stove heat like sieves. They had crappy insulation and you could heat one of today's 2000 sq/ft. homes with half the wood

*

That's cali cunt talk, what your inferring is that folks in the 'day' didn't know how to seal their house.

I suggest you learn to seal your cunt as well as you suggest that you can seal your 2k-sqft crap-shack

Anonymous said...

According to the National Association of Home Builders, the average home size in the United States was 2,330 square feet in 2004, up from 1,400 square feet in 1970.

*

According to Mensa the avg american IQ has dropped from 118 to 109, and your point is??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBilboBust... you be one crazy mutha!

I just want to know, given that you own(?) rental properties, why do you hope this fucker implodes so bad?

I mean, Warren Buffett always "says" he likes it when stocks go down, cuz that's the only time he really makes money; when he can buy. But he sure as hell rakes it in when stocks go up.

Are you wanting shit to hit the fan so you can keep loading up? Just like spanking Cali ass (who doesn't?). Or what?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So, eyeonoregon.blogspot.com is Eric Dolson's blog?

He's got some weird shit in there. A little too poetic & flowery for me.

I feel bad for the poor bastard going thru the Big D... got kids. That sucks. She'll be selling the Nugget though.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Today, it is now at $335k or 102 per square.

Dang. If you really want cheapy ass flipper bait, no quality, 5 year half life pile of shit to live in, this fucker is the cheapest of its kind.

I actually immortalized Desert Skies back in Picto-Plummet: It was the house with 3-4 sweet ass rides out in the front yard. Nice.

Anonymous said...

"--That's cali cunt talk, what your inferring is that folks in the 'day' didn't know how to seal their house.--"

I was born in St. Chuck's on the hill and lived here my whole life you dildo. I even lived in one of those little mill shit holes for a while. Used to party at the Little Oasis, if you know what the hell that was.

So if you think that --"1200 sqft is MAX, 800 sqft is idealistic"--then why don't you go back to your single wide and brush your tooth, you Lapinoid mother fucker.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Q: What do you get when you cross LaPine with a hemorrhoid?

A: Lapinoid

Anonymous said...

If your a goat, or sheep, or any other such small furry hoofed creature, you get a sore asshole.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

She helped put clotheslines in spotlight; now, she’s moving

DEQ fines Bend’s Columbia Aircraft


These are Bulletin headlines today... anybody wanna copy/paste...?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBilboBust... I have found your kindred spirit:

www.timecube.com

Anonymous said...

Mike "bosshogg" Hollern announces that anything he can't see is OK.

Awbrey Butte clothesline 'clarification' dismays critic

Posted: Nov 4, 2007 08:08 PM

Awbrey Butte resident Susan Taylor would rather hang her clothesline outside, not in her garage, but balked at screening requirements
Awbrey Butte resident Susan Taylor would rather hang her clothesline outside, not in her garage, but balked at screening requirements

From KTVZ.COM news sources

More than a month after a front-page Wall Street Journal article brought the world's attention to a rule against unscreened clotheslines on Bend's Awbrey Butte, a revised '"design guideline" for the neighborhood has left the woman who triggered debate unimpressed and dismayed that the developer won't budge on a requirement for screening.

Here are the full text of Fiday's Brooks Resources Corp. news release, and Awbrey Butte resident Susan Taylor's Sunday night e-mail to KTVZ.COM responding to the changes, which she feels don't really address the issue:

BROOKS RESOURCES CLARIFIES ITS "PRO-LAUNDRY DRYING STANCE;"
Formalizes measures to make it easy for homeowners to dry laundry while respecting design guidelines

Brooks Resources Corporation announced today (Friday) that it has taken specific steps to reaffirm its pro-laundry drying stance in line with the company's long-standing commitment to sustainability. The company has confirmed its belief that hanging laundry outside to dry makes good sense from an environmental standpoint and that this practice is allowed and encouraged on Awbrey Butte. Per the community's guidelines, the laundry simply must be screened from off-site vantage points.

Brooks Resources has added a paragraph to its Awbrey Butte Design Guidelines to make it easier for residents to dry and screen laundry outdoors. The new screen height allowed ranges from four feet to six feet, subject to ARC approval. Previously the screen height was limited to four feet.*

The company has also committed to working with individual owners to produce simple privacy screen design sketches, both built and using landscaping, trees or shrubs which would be likely to be approved by the community's ARC.

Mike Hollern, chairman of Brooks Resources, said, "We commend Susan Taylor for bringing this issue to the attention of Brooks Resources Corporation and other homeowners on Awbrey Butte. Her active lobbying to encourage more outside laundry drying to benefit the environment
has helped us shape our revised Design Guidelines." Hollern said he did not believe an owners' vote to change the CC&Rs was necessary or appropriate.

Many Awbrey Butte residents have recently contacted Brooks Resources, applauding the company for upholding the CC&Rs and design guidelines for laundry screening that were part of the agreement under which they acquired their property.

About Brooks Resources Corporation
Brooks Resources Corporation, based in Bend, Oregon, is a real estate development company that delivers quality real estate products and services in Central Oregon. With roots in the original 1916 Brooks-Scanlon lumber company that sparked a boom in Bend's growth for the next half century, Brooks Resources is one of the oldest and most respected developers in the area. Offering a diverse choice of premier neighborhoods in Central Oregon, Brooks Resources Corporation is committed to the preservation of natural environment around home sites, positive growth of communities and an active relationship with the communities of Central Oregon.

Its current developments include North Rim on Awbrey Butte, RiverWild at Mount Bachelor Village Resort, Awbrey Park, Century Washington Center, IronHorse, NorthWest Crossing (a joint venture with Tennant Family Limited Partnership) and Yarrow (a joint venture with Eagle
Crest and Taylor Northwest). In addition it operates Awbrey Glen Golf Club, Mount Bachelor Village Resort, Botanical Developments, Brooks Resources Realty and is a partner in the Madras Land Development Company which is developing Yarrow. For more information, visit www.brooksresources.com.

###


*The paragraph being added to the design guidelines is:

"Laundry Screening
All clothes drying apparatus must be screened from off-site vantage
points. The screening is intended to filter the view of the drying
activity. Screening may be achieved with a combination of
architectural and landscape elements. Each submittal will be
reviewed on an individual basis. Generally, architectural elements
for screening clothes drying apparatus will be limited to six feet in
height and shall be constructed to be compatible with the primary
materials and colors of the home. Taller architectural elements for
screening clothes drying apparatus may be approved provided the
screen is integrated with the architecture of the home and minimally
impacts neighboring properties as determined by the ARC."

---

Susan Taylor's e-mail:
Where do things stand?! Well, you got Brooks' stance. If hanging laundry on Awbrey Butte was allowed and encouraged as Mike Hollern at Brooks Resources stated, why am I still be threatened with legal action if I continue to hang my laundry outside. Oh, I remember now, my clotheslines just can't be seen! As I told Mike Hollern, their new "design guidelines" are just more of the same. I am so disappointed they aren't putting this issue to a vote. A week ago Mike Hollern asked me what I thought the wording should be if they put this to a vote because they were AGAIN thinking of doing that. Ten days later they give you this press release. Once again, this is another example of a big corporation who doesn't want to change because it may upset some people who choose not to see the bigger picture. This decision is not right for Central Oregon or the rest of the world. This was a perfect opportunity for Brooks to lead the rest of the country's homeowners' associations and remove the obstacles that prohibit us from trying to conserve energy. It makes no sense to have to spend more money and use more resources to hide clotheslines! It is not right, to be denied access to wind and sun because of outdated CC&R's. I would reccommend Brooks Resources deal with all the other non-compliant property owners violating CC&R's that came before my clothesline issue and then come and talk to me about breaking their rules trying to give kids a future by conserving limited natural resources.

Anonymous said...

I just want to know, given that you own(?) rental properties, why do you hope this fucker implodes so bad?

[ I don't hope for shit. I know what's going to happen. I have no control. I do hate to see city land be sold for cash to pay for boondoggles. ]

I mean, Warren Buffett always "says" he likes it when stocks go down, cuz that's the only time he really makes money; when he can buy. But he sure as hell rakes it in when stocks go up.

[ Warren has also said that the dollar will collapse, has said so for years, does that mean he hates America?? Warren is just calling them as he seems them. Buy Low, Sell High. Nothing New here, problem is of course is RE is NO liquid, and thus has NOTHING to do with the debate. ]

Are you wanting shit to hit the fan so you can keep loading up? Just like spanking Cali ass (who doesn't?). Or what?

[ I already own TOO MUCH RE, you can't sell today, I don't sell, I will not buy anymore, already been through many RE recessions in Oregon. I didn't sell yesterday. Shit would have to go to ZERO before I lost money. ]

***

p.s. The ONLY fucking reason I waste my time here is because I hate to see what you cunts are doing to Bend.

I agree with what you have said, you really don't make money in RE, RE is about deferring tax, RE is about 'forced savings'. Property management rentals biz is about dealing with losers, not a beautiful business.

Contrary to suggestion, and YOU know that what we think don't have a fucking thing to do with outcome.

We 'blog' because the BULL & SORE has failed to report the 'news'.

I think the only progress that we can make is like is being done @ the nugget. Let people report what they think. Let all the laundry be aired. Be louder and noisier than the BULL or SORE. In time we'll win the war, especially now that the city is bankrupt.

Anonymous said...

Just like spanking Cali ass (who doesn't?). Or what?

*

I have written on this issue too much. This is what got me banned a long time ago from bendbb "Oregonians are hobbits, calis on gargoyles".

Calis are a FESTER worse than cancer, they come here to bend and bring ALL their fucking shit, that they claim to be running from.

90% of bendbb group is cali, newbies, and thus they hate to have shit rubbed in their nose. Hollern, Kuratek,... all did business in cali before coming to rob Oregon.

The two biggest problems we have in Bend is first the incoming cali's is making this into a cali shit-hole. Secondly the city is running a secret government and nobody seems to have a clue.

I think the cali problem is largely that this group has just enough stock equity from pre y2k that they think they're 'plantation owners' but they're really house niggers. The plantation-owners run city hall. The field niggers are pretty much gone from Bend, their jobs have been eliminated.

As BEM pointed out yesterday, Juniper-Ridge could have been a blue-collar are years ago, if they had just put in a road, power, ... BUT no, it has to be something BIG.

Like this debate about homes, all homes in Bend used to be under 1k-sq-ft it was insane to do otherwise, nobody needs a home bigger than 1k-sqft. This BIG home, BIG dick, BIG suv, BIG titted wife all comes from cali.

FUCK CALIS, they are the number one problem, look at city hall its the cali-rasputins that have charmed city-hall into becoming dysfunctional.

The ONLY WAY to keep MORE cali's from coming to Central-Oregon, is do like we used to do, have a sign that says' "Dont visit, Dont stay"

Anonymous said...

In most desert shit towns. Its sell the city-park for cash, and then spend the money on a water slide to attract tourism. Of course the 'water-slide' is about keeping the construction biz going, which is who owns most towns.

In PDX they don't even mention public, people, or citizens anymore. There is ONLY "stakeholders", which is construction, politics, owners. Everyone else doesn't even have a need to know. This is where Bend has gone today.

Kuratek is a 'stakeholder', so is Hollern, so is city-council, and city-staff, and les-schwab. The taxpayer is NOT a stake-holder, and thus they can be kept in the dark.

Todays city government is the mushroom model, the vast masses of Bend are fed-shit, courtesy of BULL&SORE. The stake-holders sell off city-land ( JR,... ) and enrich one another.

Garzini say's "Run Bend like a business". BULLSHIT ron, in 'business' you cannot get land for free, you don't have the 'power' of government. Bend is an example Kleptocracy, when organized criminals run a city like a business.

Anonymous said...

Let's talk about theft. Take Bay-Meadows another shell LLC of Kuratek down in Cali'

Bay-Meadow was 100 year old race track, used by many citizens for many purposes, but Rasputin 'ray' Kuratek, convinced city-hall to tear it down, and let him build the greatest RE-HO condo-HO, MOFO in the universe. The same plan 'master-plan' that he's selling Bend, is the same 'cooper' that he did down there, until 2006. He just brought the whole thing up here, and a saw that given the city paid one dollar for JR, that he could convince the city the same way he had played in San Mateo.

It's NOT ray's fault, its the city's fault, if we didn't allow secrecy in government ( which is illegal ), then everything would be self correcting, but Bend is NOT a democracy. It is a Kleptocracy, this is why Ray moved here, he knew Garzini, and he knew that in Bend, anything was possible.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here's one:

From KTVZ.COM news sources

The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has issued a $6,424 penalty to Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp. (formerly Lancair) of Bend for operating its manufacturing facility at 22550 Nelson Road without first obtaining a state air quality permit, the agency said Monday.

On Feb. 24, 2003 and again on Dec. 4, 2003 DEQ staff informed the company that Oregon law required it to obtain an Air Contaminant Discharge Permit (ACDP) before the facility's volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions reached ten tons per year.

Anonymous said...

The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has issued a $6,424 penalty to Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp. (formerly Lancair) of Bend for operating its manufacturing facility at 22550 Nelson Road without first obtaining a state air quality permit, the agency said Monday.

*

For a long time, eastern Oregon was ignored, and allowed to break all laws.

Slowly the State is getting off their lazy ass, and is starting to enforce the law in Central Oregon.

p.s. somebody pissed off about losing their job, must have tipped off deq.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What's fucked up, is that by allowing Les Schwab into JR & then going back to SQUARE ONE AGAIN, is we will have to pay for millions in infrastructure, for the sake of one facility.

I mean, they say "No More at JR, EXCEPT FOR LES SCHWAB, until you fix the traffic problem". BITCHES, WHY? That's like preselling one fuckin Plaza penthouse unit, before the fucker is built, then OBLIGATING yourself to build practically the entire fucking thing for the sake of ONE UNIT.

Dollars Spent? $30 MILL
Dollars Received? Maybe $100K, MAX.

Yes, our BRILLIANT City Fathers have got our anchor tenant at a cost of $29.9 MILL. Good call. And just like the Plaza, we got a snowballs chance of selling additional units.

If JR = The Plaza, Les Schwab = subsidized penthouse buyer obligating us to build the entire fuckin behemoth whether we want to or not.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

About Brooks Resources Corporation

Brooks Resources is a loose band of selfish pricks that talk out of both sides of their ass. We put the MENTAL in environmental insanity. If you have land available for butt-whomping profiteering, call us today.

Homer: These candidates make me want to vomit in terror!

Anonymous said...

Calis are a FESTER worse than cancer, they come here to bend and bring ALL their fucking shit, that they claim to be running from.

You're from Cali hypocrite. And you play the RE game just as shamelessly as any imported mofo so shut the hell up for once.

Anonymous said...

Les Schwab = subsidized penthouse buyer obligating us to build the entire fuckin behemoth whether we want to or not.

*

What we still don't know, is WHAT the fuck does DICK 'little prick' Brogman have on this city??

He's a nobody, that got bumped upon the death of old man Les Schwab.

It all goes back to the 2001 plan of Garzini's to make Juniper-Ridge into a first class 'profitable' private prison.

The ONLY cunt he could get to sign up on the planet was Les Schwab, but they all knew they had to wait until the all man was dead. A few days after LS died the deal was forged into into steel.

Why all the secrecy?? If its so go for fucking Oregon, why to this day is it secret? Why did they fire Anderson and bring back Garzini to rescue the project?

Why has the project been expedited?

Yes, the plan is to build a 1500 acre Plaza-Prison out at Les Schwab Acres [ aka Juniper Ridge ]. Dick Brogman LS CEO gets the first pent-house for free. Everything is collateral-ized with the good name of the city. Yet, even 20%/yr return to AIG wasn't enough to keep them in.

Today the ONLY way to fund JR is CITY-CDO-MUNI's. They say that Bend is NOT at risk, but even the Oct 15, 2007 says the entire recovery is dependent upon the sale of JR land for a lot of money to one dumb fucking buyer with zero negotiation skills.

Perhaps eventually, once the 'public' has approved the Federal Bureau of Prisons will step in and 'buy' everything, as city cost.

Remember the 'money' to be made is long term prison labor @ $1.20/hr.

Anonymous said...

The ONLY cunt he could get to sign up on the planet was Les Schwab, but they all knew they had to wait until the all man was dead. A few days after LS died the deal was forged into into steel.

*

The guy to watch behind the scenes on all this is Scott 'Judge Dred' up in Prineville. This guys is the estate planner for LS, he's on the EDCO board, he's the judge of Crook, and master RE planner for region. This guy is an old time 'lock em up' judge, with the twist of a guy who likes RE, or I should likes to 'run' RE.

Anonymous said...

You're from Cali hypocrite. And you play the RE game just as shamelessly as any imported mofo so shut the hell up for once

*

That's like saying that ALL parents fuck their children.

Perhaps ALL cali parents fuck their children. Do we have to build a fucking fence??

Anonymous said...


What does it mean to 'play' the RE game, and ALL plays the same??

YOU CUNTS came up here in the last five years, with easy money to 'get rich quick'.

I bought dozens of homes in Bend back in the 60's for nuttin, and with sweat equity, paid them all off, and charge my renters an average of $750/mo,

I can honestly say that ALL you cali cunt that came to Bend, are NOT using my model ( it would take 40 years ), and I'm NOT using your model ( get poor quick ).

Anonymous said...

Dollars Spent? $30 MILL
Dollars Received? Maybe $100K, MAX.

Yes, our BRILLIANT City Fathers have got our anchor tenant at a cost of $29.9 MILL. Good call. And just like the Plaza, we got a snowballs chance of selling additional units.

*

BEM did an excellent cost analysis yesterday on Duncan's site. Keep it cheap, keep it simple, and if 5-10 years ago they had put in a road, and some power, a little well. Then over time guys that make truck canopys, would have put up metal boxes for $10k ( 48by48by16 ), and there would be all kind of blue-collar jobs. As folks came in en they would pay to extend power, and water, ... it would have been cheap, ..

BUT NO, now Juniper-Ridge has become a 1500 acre water-slide/prison, and NOBODY is going to be able to afford to go there, because the next guy is going to have to subsidize les-schwab.


In summary JR is fucked before its even online by design, or stupidity?

It all goes back to the 'white only' thing, city-fodders want to pick and choose the golden beautiful companys, they don't want blue collar in Oregon, unless they're in a prison-compound.

The only reason JR is being allowed in is that initially its office, nice pretty office, and nice pretty office people who already own nice awbrey homes up at Hollern-Ville.

Anonymous said...

I bought dozens of homes in Bend back in the 60's for nuttin, and with sweat equity, paid them all off, and charge my renters an average of $750/mo,

You're FROM CALIFORNIA, the same as they are or worse and besotted with your own self importance THE SAME AS THEM. You learned nothing. Bad mouthing where you came from but playing the same damn game. So what if you've been doing it for longer and can no longer sell your 1200 sq ft huts nor rent them for $750 which is a rip off for a house that small.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From BendBB:

buy now! wrote:
Check the Clerk's site boys...a construction company has just slapped a $1.1 million lien on The Plaza for failure to pay for services rendered.

Anonymous said...

For the past 20-30 year in Bend, you got $500/mo for an apartment, and $750/mo for a house.

The size of the house never mattered in Bend, in fact most renters are smart enough to realize that the they cannot afford to heat a home larger than 1200 sq-ft.

p.s. I live in a 1200 sq-ft home, and its more than enough space, and I could buy anything in Bend if I wished.

Anonymous said...

Check the Clerk's site boys...a construction company has just slapped a $1.1 million lien on The Plaza for failure to pay for services rendered.

*

Now you guys are using your brain, this is what you look for. This is the kind of shit that shows we really in a recession in Bend.

Now what happens is its going to go barter, or cash only.

Watch the suppliers also, the building development will soon be over.

No more credit, and credit is what kept it all going.

It's going to be a long cold dark winters.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Becky's going to have to go into barter-mode, and trade units for lien releases...

I wonder how much skin she has in the thing... I would think NOT MUCH. That 1st mortgage holder is probably in some Big Shit too, if she's not paying the drywallers...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Becky's going to have to go into barter-mode...

Now what happens is its going to go barter, or cash only.


Shit... that's sort of scary. I was briefly mind-melded with BendBilboBust...

Apparently I screamed, "Can you cunts Shut UP!" in my reverie....

Anonymous said...

I really don't know where this idea that 1200 sqft is small comes from, this to me is HUGE.

I'm rather comfy in a 800 sqft home, especially in the desert.

All these 2k, 3k, 4k mcMansions built of shit materials, built to last ten years max, are going to be worth NOTHING in five years.

I have always said that nice little homes near Drake Park rent easy, and you can go places by foot, or bike,...

All these mcMansions +2miles out of town is this whole cali thing, of living in a suburban track, and driving everywhere, once gas becomes $10/gallon, you'll all be very fucked.

I predict soon in downtown bend, we'll once again have little hardware stores so folks can walk downtown to get nails or whatever.

YOU FUCKING home-depot, cali big box walmart cunts, I hope you choke on your big box.

Big fucking articial dicks, big tits ( artificial ), pills to make dumb kids smart, big cars, big homes,

Your ALL white-trash from cali, that has been convinced by team-dubya that somehow being in fucking debt makes you a king.

Bend is just like sand-point Idaho ( our sister city ), every white trash-cali transplant thinks he's a king.

Like we said the other day, what DUBYA has brought you dumb fuck DUBYA voters is a fucking nightmare.

I hope your fake cock falls off or get gangrene.
I hope your wife gets a tit infection. I hope your spawn OD on meth. I hope you turnover on I97 while your speeding to super walmart at 80mph.... I Hope for a lot.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


I hope your fake cock falls off or get gangrene.
I hope your wife gets a tit infection. I hope your spawn OD on meth. I hope you turnover on I97 while your speeding to super walmart at 80mph.... I Hope for a lot.


Dude, thanks for saying what we're all thinking. I was kicking a fake cock down the sidewalk the other day, wondering, "When will these Cali BITCHES learn! Back-alley dick implants NEVER WORK!"

Anonymous said...

Bad mouthing where you came from but playing the same damn game.

*

In the early 60's when I came to Bend, folks hadn't even yet came to cali that fucked it up.

I don't think cali went to hell until the early 70's.

Bend went to hell in 86, that's when I97 became a parking lot, in my relative feeling if pain.

I guess 'bendbb' is so dumb I have to explain the game. Buying homes forty years ago, and paying them off with a fifteen year fixed, and renting them so cheap, that the renter never leaves is NOT whats been going on in Bend in the last five years.

What part of this don't you understand??

Regarding 'bad-mouthing' cali, that's why I fucking left in the early 60's, because I could see them coming. My family had been there since the depression, they lost everything and came west.

During the vietnam war, that brought military contractors that brought in East coast hawks, and built and built, ... they had latch key kids which led to drugs, ... When I left cali it was fucked. Back then Bend was a fucking paradise.

Cali completely went to hell in the 70's, relatives that I knew had their home go from $10k to $300k in a few years. That created endless insanity.

Bend didn't really get insane until the easy money.

Things didn't get bad until 1986, but the good news is most folks lost everything and left, so their was equilibrium for years.

Then after 1998 Bend just became a place where every hustlers went for the ride, and most from cali.

You didn't answer my question? Do ALL calis fuck their children and their dogs??

Good story today about kids in Prineville bored out of their mind, because cali parent brought them over from pdx. These little bastards are going to create a METH paradise in Priny.

Anonymous said...

I hope you just shut the fuck up and go back to your little sage rat hole in the desert. Or better yet, back to Stockton, or Chino, or Yuba City, or wherever the fuck you came from, bitchboy.

Timothy said...

>>I really don't know where this idea that 1200 sqft is small comes from, this to me is HUGE.

Well, how many people live in your house?

Timothy said...

Is this a blog about the Bend Bubble or about Naked Lunch?

You guys really can't stay on topic, can you?

Anonymous said...

, "When will these Cali BITCHES learn! Back-alley dick implants NEVER WORK!"

*

Yes, but the bite the BULL they see those ads, who needs 6", or 12", why not go for the big-boy @ 36"??

And their wives too, know just go for 36D, when you can do 42F??

Same for cars, why have a subaru, when you can get a Hummer H1 for nothing down, and low lease, but when you turn it back, you owe 2X of what its worth....

Bend is a capital of Surgery, Bend has more surgeons per capita than anywhere else in America, mostly back surgery, but they'll do penile implant, and breast.

Then there are the kids, got to be tall, and have big muscles, these calis shove so much hormones in their kids that most of the boys are lard-arses like Limbaugh at 20 with big tits, just like mom.

Bend is so fucking funny, just keep bringing in the calis so we have blogger-fodder.

Anonymous said...

Is this a blog about the Bend Bubble or about Naked Lunch?

You guys really can't stay on topic, can you?

*

Homers law: As the time from post increases, the inanity increases to the square.

We have REHO's in Bend, and they're largely cali MILF's with ever imaginable surgery available in Bend.

The topic is debating the bend-bubble, and the resulting stupid shit people do. Given the implosion, and the lack of cash. I can see REHO's selling their saline implants, and guys selling their gold fillings. Ergo, these topics are relevant to whats going on at this late hour of the bend-bubble collapse.

Watch the blood bank, see how many REHO's are selling blood in Bend.

Anonymous said...

We have 2 adults and 2 kids in our 1450SFT house. Sometimes we wish we had a little more room but it's not crowded by any means. It's cheap to heat, that's for sure...$60 a month for gas stove, water heater, and forced air heating. It will probably be more like $75-80 this year with the price of natural gas going up.

Anonymous said...

"Mary Ann Moore is a woman that likes nothing moore that to read her name in the local newspaper. And her husband, Rob Corrigan, jumped ship the minute things on the Sister's School Board got a little hot. No, they're not crooks, they're just not NEARLY as bright as they think they are."
++++++++++++++

Sisters folks are much smarter than Bend folks. Especially the Harvard grads like the two mentioned above.

And they are much better looking also. And they have much better taste in art, especially Columbia Sportswear art from Kathy Deggendorfer and other rich trust fund artists. And Sisters folks appreciate fine films from the cultural elite Sisters Movie house.

Sometimes it is just hard for slothfull, dumber, and uglier older brothers to really appreciate their little sisters.

Anonymous said...

Well, how many people live in your house?

*

According to homer, Bend is a third world country. A Bend Home should at the very least handle one person for 100 sqft. Right Homer?

Are we talking pre-boom, boom, or post-boom?

One thing is for certain, and that is kids are doubling up, as a landlord I hard NEVER see couples any more solo. Now its always two couples that are looking for a house.

More power to all you work@home computer cali tele-commuters who make the BIG bucks ( > $7/HR ). You can afford to have 3k sqft with one or two people. Given most Bend will once again be $7/hr, and two people is $35k/yr, which is about $120k ( 4x ) for rent or payment.

All the BIG crap shacks have got to go down to $30/sq-ft just to be affordable for the average person.

A 1200 sqft, can still hold at $100/sq-ft just fine.

Anonymous said...

All the BIG crap shacks have got to go down to $30/sq-ft just to be affordable for the average person.

*

That's our target. We just broke $100/sq-ft. Thus $30/sq-ft is NOT far away.

Anonymous said...

Sometimes it is just hard for slothfull, dumber, and uglier older brothers to really appreciate their little sisters.

*

Right-On I'm glad someone brought this UP. You do see anyone SHOVING a Juniper-Ridge up the slut-sisters arse!!!

You don't see Ray 'rasputin' Kuratek getting $60k/mo, plus $2.5M parachute from sisters, ... I could just go on and on. But up in sisters, the town folk actually are paying fucking attention to what is going on.

Bend is a collective METH town, largely populated by warm-cali body's that somehow made an 8 hr drive to Bend, and didn't leave, but managed to get a MTG, and are now waiting to be millionaires.

This shit didn't happen in Bend, just walk into a sisters RE shop, and they give you the the look, I can tell you ol bend-bust fuck-head looks like a homeless tramp, and on many occasions I went into sisters RE over the last 20 years sniffing for deals, and everytime, every shop I was shown the fucking door!!!!!!

On the other HAND, Bend has always treated EVERY person with a warm breath as GOLD!!!!!

Yes, I completely agree that Sisters, is NOTHING compared to Bend.

Let's just hope there are some smart fuckers running all these trust funds, and they don't have any exposure to money-market, stock-market, RE, bonds, commerical paper.

Anonymous said...

....shown the door.
------------

Absolutely. Sisters don't need no riff raff. They are an elite bunch of smart, good looking, wealthy folks who can spot scum from a mile away, and politely turn them away to find some place more suitable for such folks.

Unless, of course, you want to buy an ice cream cone while you shop for some nice little nick nacks.

Sisters: Come on over to our shoppes for a pleasant afternoon, but please leave by sun down.

Bruce said...

Drove past the new construction at Cooley and 18th this morning--it's coming along fine. According to http://online.plansonfile.com/cobe_toc/pub/bend/2007-0681.php it's only going to Bend's taxpayers $5 1/2 million or so for Les Schwab's new driveway.

Anonymous said...

You didn't answer my question? Do ALL calis fuck their children and their dogs??

Your were from Cali so the question must haunt you. Did others suffer what you did?

Bend Economy Man said...

a construction company has just slapped a $1.1 million lien on The Plaza for failure to pay for services rendered


Are you reading this, Bulletin reporters or editors? REPORT THIS!

If "condo-mania" was news, then shouldn't "condo-phobia" be as well?

Timothy said...

I grew up in a house with one bathroom for four people. Now I have 5 bathrooms for 5 people and I can tell you that IT SUCKS to clean this place.

When my kids are gone and we're down to two people, I would LOVE to live in 1200sqft. A bathroom and a hal would be fine.

And by the way, I hate bathrooms that are in bedrooms. Stinky. The bathroom should be off the hall. A dog doesn't crap in his doghouse, does he?

Timothy said...

>>Are you reading this, Bulletin reporters or editors? REPORT THIS!

That isn't a real paper. It's an ad sheet. Email the Oregonian.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Becky stuck it to the man for $1,130,349.90. Nice Job. Here's some subs that got a financial colonoscopy:

Keizer Electric: $66,870
Old World Tile: $152,527
Oregon Cascade Plumbing: $181,920
SilverCreek Woodworks: $35,326
ProD Construction: $99,853
Mtn View Heating: $44,826
Floor Decor: $27,815
Ogden Construction: $36,456
Willamette Masonry: $38,833
SecreCom: $34,922

and the rest...

Not sure if (Kenneth) Dalke Construction actually already paid these people, but somebody's getting the shaft.

I bet Becky is just thrilled out of her pants by the End Result of this RE Bubble. Good Times never end and such.

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah...Well I grew up in an outhouse in Millican. We didn't even have a house, just the shitter. We all hunkered down in the honey pot in the winter and lit methane gas fires to keep us warm. Dad would go out every Christmas and chop down a sage brush, and me and sissy would decorate that little sum bitch with dingle berrys. Used to have to walk pert near 50 miles to school every day...EACH WAY! Oh yes, those were the days. I 'member Mommy adancin' on the side of Hwy 20 as the truckers cruised by and how they'd throw out nickels. On a good day we'd go to Brothers fer some vittles. Sis and I used to love to play frisbee golf out back of the store.(it was really a piece of cow shit, but I didn't have the heart to tell little sissy). And on special occasions, we'd all walk to Bend and eat at the Snack Shack. Shit boy howdy! Yep...them was the days.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Well I grew up in an outhouse in Millican.

Dude, that shit is FUNNY!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A bathroom and a hal would be fine.

Where'd the hal go? To the front door? Ta nut'n? Beds fold outta da hal wal? Shit, dats Big Livin with a bathroom & a hal.

Friend: "Damn, how'd you afford this hal?"

Timmy: "Hit da Jackpot. Watch dis, I sleep outta this here fold out wal bed. No more sleeping behind da toilet!"

Friend: "Damn, dats sweet!"

Timothy said...

Crap. I only typed thre quarte of my "half."

Anonymous said...

it's only going to Bend's taxpayers $5 1/2 million or so for Les Schwab's new driveway

*

That's just for the tar on the drive, then theres the rock, lights curb,.... do a 10X for the actual ingress/egress, then there's water, power, elec,

In the OLD days when DUMB nuts built out in NO-WHERE the utilty's only picked up the first 100ft, I guess the city can run everything right to Brogsman's door for free, and throw in a red carpet.

When is the deal going to go public??

Anonymous said...

Project #T05 Bid Date: 06/05/2007 @ 2:00 pm

Cooley Road & 18th Street Extension (UR0701), Deschutes Co., Bend, OR

Low Bid
Bids Received: 3
Apparent Low Knife River 541-388-0445 $5,414,268.00
2nd Moore Excavation $5,667,820.00
3rd JAL Const. Inc. $6,403,721.00

Plans
Specs
Mandatory Pre-Bid Attendees
Add # 1
Add # 1 Plans
Add # 2
Bid Results

Register on this project.

View current Bidders List

Central Oregon Builders Exchange Subs and Suppliers

Owner:
City of Bend
710 NW Wall St.
Bend OR 97701
Ph: 541-317-3000

Mandatory Pre-Bid:
May 24th @ 1:00 pm at owners address.

Description:
The City of Bend is seeking a qualified contractor to construct roadway improvements to the existing Cooley Road and a new section of roadway connecting to a new double lane roundabout at the new intersection of Cooley Road and 18th Street. The construction consists of full reconstruction of approximately 2,000 lineal feet of Cooley to a three lane section inclosing sidewalks, curbs and bike lanes; construction if aproximately 3,000 lineal feet of new three lane section roadway;construction of a new double lane roundabout including drainage facilities, utility trenching, conduit and vaults; construction of approximately 3,700 lineal feet of 12 inch and 3,100 lineal feet of 16 inch water line; and construction of approximately 2,500 lineal feet of 8 inch gravity sewer line 3,000 lineal feet of 6 inch sanitary force main and 3,000 lineal feet of 4 inch sanitary force main. The roadway work includes sidewalks, medians, drainage control, landscape and irrigation.

Anonymous said...

According to http://online.plansonfile.com/cobe_toc/pub/bend/2007-0681.php it's only going to Bend's taxpayers $5 1/2 million or so for Les Schwab's new driveway.

:(

You would never see Sisters, spend $6M, in cash, for a private companys driveway, even a tire flipper!

Those folks in Bend, are fucking Dumb.

Anonymous said...

Just how dumb are the folks in Bend?

How about $60k/mo, and $2.5M to break up.

There are more seats available.

On sale now, seats on the Bend Titanic. Arranging deck chairs near you.

Tonight our own Becky Breeze sings "Barter Brothel", and old Bend favorite at the Les Schwab Amphitheater.

Anonymous said...

I recently traveled to Mexico on vacation. I noticed something very peculiar. The average Mexican-especially those that speak english, can live a better life in Mexico than in say LA. This is based on personal discressionary income. I spoke with Canadians that were there and they wondered if Bush was insane for this war that is driving our dollar into the ground. After the trip I spoke to a Bend friend whom sees it all coming togerther with The AMERO. This idea is to bring Canada, Mexico and the US to a common dollar valuation the bam!! Here is the solution. Tie in double digit inflation and we have the perfect storm. See this link for info:
http://www.halturnershow.com/AmeroCoinArrives.html


"The story went on to say that the US Government has intentionally overspent itself for the purpose of irreversibly Bankrupting the country. The idea is that they will drive the country into economic failure, then when millions of Americans are panicking at the prospect, offer them a solution of merging the three countries as "the only possible way" to avoid losing everything.

They will force Canada into the merger by telling them the US currency they hold and rely upon will be worthless and the only way Canada can even hope to salvage any of the funds is to join the NAU."

Please weigh in, I am intreged and horrified by what is comming together. I need to add that I have always been a conservative. So this is not a rant of thin skinned Lib trying to bash on Bush.

Anonymous said...

We have been seeing all the construction through the fall. Now today we see liens against major builders.

Note, are these actual liens for non-payment, or are they liens for the security of payment??

Normally once a builder's credit becomes questionable, then all builder's suppliers automatically place a lien, that way on the next bank-draw they are paid first.

Most likely what is going on here i the latter, the suppliers are just making sure when the draws are cut, they get paid first. If Mrs. Breeze actually weren't paying her subs, there would be blood on the steps of the Plaza.

If all this is just normal liens to ensure payment this is a non-story. On the other hand, if these are liens for non-payment then that is a story, but the latter MUST be issued by a judge, and the first are what is called contractor liens, and they can be issued as soon as a job is done. Quite essential for force payment, on a incompetent developers.

Anonymous said...

So this is not a rant of thin skinned Lib trying to bash on Bush.

*

The debate here is about 'bend bubble', and how we can find the 'final solution' to the cali problem.

Bashing DUBYA is a self destructive process.

The republicans have long planned to BK, USA. This is NOT a new concept, it was prevalent during RAYGUN. The only way the CUNTS can elminiate 'non-corporate entitlements' is to BK, USA.

Regarding MX & CAN, they'll both SAY FUCK-YOU. The plan is a north & south fence, and to declare USA a prison. Canada wants NO part of USA.

USA is fucked. It's people fucked themselves. 90% of the entire world wants the USA fenced in, and its population locked down.

Anonymous said...

Bulletin reporters or editors? REPORT THIS!

*

That will be a cold day in hell.

The BULL will implode, the BULL is incapable of reporting news.

Once the owners of the BULL go BK, they'll simply shut down. Bend doesn't need a newspaper.

In Bend the "Stakeholders", just do what needs to be done. Nobody needs to be told whats going to be done.

Bend is a land of rich retirees, who don't need to be bothered with trivia.

Anonymous said...

Madras, Raids city-budget, reams taxpayers to have hollywood visit.

***

Lights, camera, financial action
Filming brings extra economic activity to Madras
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: November 07. 2007 5:00AM PST

MADRAS — Production started here this week on a Hollywood film — and that means financial action during an otherwise sleepy time of year for visitation.

On Tuesday, a flagger moved cars on U.S. Highway 97 past Sonny’s Motel, which was selected for shooting the heart of “Management,” a romantic comedy featuring Jennifer Aniston, Steve Zahn and Woody Harrelson. Security personnel, including officers from the Bend and Madras police departments, kept onlookers off the property as traffic crawled past the site, where shooting is expected to last through Nov. 21.

A cast of 10 to 15 actors and actresses, and more than 100 crew members — spending money on everything from lodging to food to set supplies and fun — are contributing to Central Oregon’s $498-million-per-year tourism economy, said Holli Van Wert, the executive director for the Madras-Jefferson County Chamber of Commerce. Cast and crew members have inquired about golf, rafting, spa and resort options in Central Oregon for days they’re not shooting, she said.

Already, business has increased in Madras at local grocery, hardware and liquor stores, and hotels are nearly full with the film crew and a Department of Corrections convention in town this week, Van Wert said.

“The really cool part is that they’re regular people who do the same things we do when we visit a place for three weeks,” Van Wert said.

This year, the out-of-state film industry will contribute $48 million directly to the state’s economy, including spending on hotels, restaurants and other services, said Steve Oster, the executive director of the Oregon Film & Video Office, based in Portland.

The production crew wouldn’t have chosen Madras or Oregon without state incentives, Oster said.

The state will reimburse film companies for 20 percent of its Oregon-based goods and services and 16.2 percent of its production payroll. The incentives are less than other states offer, but Oregon’s lack of a sales tax, its proximity to Hollywood and the declining value of the dollar for shooting films in Vancouver, British Columbia, make filmmaking in Oregon a more affordable option, Oster said.

Film producers also were attracted by the ability to represent three locations on the big screen — Kingman, Ariz., Baltimore and Aberdeen, Wash. — by shooting in Portland and Madras.

“Oregon’s diverse topography filled the bill, so they could do all the filming in one place,” Oster said. “It turned into a cost savings for them.”

Local impact

The film crew booked 35 rooms for two weeks at Hoffy’s Motel at the north end of town, said Allen Huang, the owner and manager. The hotel has 98 rooms.

“We would have nothing this time of year except (wildlife) hunters,” Huang said. “It’s helping us a lot.”

At the 47-room Best Western Madras Inn, a combination of the film, the Department of Corrections conference and a Native American tribal summit has filled the hotel’s rooms, said Clifford Reynolds, general manager.

“It all happened at once,” Reynolds said. “This is great for the community.”

The 72-room Inn at Cross Keys Station, which opened Oct. 1 across from Safeway, could not release its occupancy. But the film crew had booked 28 rooms for 21 days prior to the shooting, according to previous reports in The Bulletin.

Local retailers Ace Hardware and Erickson’s Thriftway Madras are picking up film crew business, too.

Erickson’s will have 48 doughnuts ready for pickup by 6 a.m. before the store opens, said Dan Walston, store manager.

“It gets our name out there,” he said. “It helps us if we’re willing to work with them, we might pick up more business along the way.”

The film crew also purchased signs and materials from Ace Hardware, located just south of Erickson’s downtown. In return, the store gave the crew Ace Hardware hats, said Candra Philibert, assistant manager.

“They were excited,” she said. “They said they’d be back in for other items. We gave them the names of local businesses.”

Madras Liquor sold between 12 and 15 bottles of higher-end liquor Monday night, said store clerk Miles Pattenaude.

“We had quite a bit of crew members carrying walkie-talkies and badges,” he said. “It kept me on my toes.”

Star-studded city

The added hype from film production comes on top of national exposure received when Madras’ Jacoby Ellsbury helped the Boston Red Sox win the World Series in October.

The movie shows that the spotlight can shine on Madras itself, said Tim Murnane, a local resident who moved to Madras two years ago with family from Portland.

Because the city does not have a movie theater, residents will need to drive to Bend or Redmond to watch “Management” when it’s released in 2008, Murnane noted.

“I almost want to keep it quiet,” Murnane said. “I don’t want to see the city overdeveloped, but it needs more things to do.”

Madras resident Al Boettcher thought the movie hype was overrated.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” Boettcher said. “I just can’t see why they have to block the highway. It seems awful funny to me that they would stop traffic on the road to shoot a movie. At least it will put some money in the economy.”

Anonymous said...

Erickson’s will have 48 doughnuts ready for pickup by 6 a.m. before the store opens, said Dan Walston, store manager.

*

This is better than a pig & prison convention sponsored by Ron Garzini.

Who knew Hollywood could eat so many donuts?

Anonymous said...

The state will reimburse film companies for 20 percent of its Oregon-based goods and services and 16.2 percent of its production payroll.

*

As a businessman, what can I say, how would you like the government to pay 20% of your 'costs'??

Economically this is a great idea, use local money to enrich calis, perhaps some of them will buy homes @ YARROW???

Anonymous said...

Senior housing slated for Bend; Affordable apartments will house 65 to 70 people in NorthWest Crossing


* BULL 07NOV2007

This is big news!

NWXC is going to open up section-8 housing to seniors.

Now some of the poorest folks in America can enjoy NWXC.


This is the most important price recovery plan to date.

Who would have guessed that NWXC would be become an old folks poor-farm??

Anonymous said...

New water park in Redmond may switch locations

* BULL 07NOV

There is actually confirmed rumor, that the water park is going to be done now near Juniper Ridge.

Talking about industrial uses.

Anonymous said...

$250M taxpayers of Redmond, are about to feel a burning sensation.

***

Redmond takes first step toward water park
REDMOND - The city's Urban Area Planning Commission unanimously approved a recommendation for a zoning change Monday night that would be the first step toward construction of a $120 million water park resort on a 39-acre site adjacent to the Deschutes County Fair & Expo Center in Redmond.

The crowd of about 100 citizens applauded following the decision. No one spoke against changing the property's zoning from industrial to commercial tourism at the public hearing. Planning commissioners raised concerns about traffic the project would generate.

The project includes plans to build a crossing over the railroad tracks in the area.

The project's developers say the Redmond Waterpark Resort would create jobs, transform the city's tourism economy and provide year-round recreation.

"It would also generate a lot of fun," said Bill Schertzinger, a partner in BGJJ LLC, which is developing the project, and a Redmond-based architect.

The Planning Commission heard the developer's plans for the first phase of the project, which would include an Old West-themed resort, 370 condominium hotel units, a 1-acre indoor water park and a family entertainment center. The water park would be completed by 2010, according to Schertzinger.

The second phase of the project could include another themed water park resort, an interactive museum, and themed eating, entertainment and retail districts. The cost of the 28-acre second phase is estimated at $250 million and would be located between U.S. Highway 97 and the railroad tracks.

The indoor water park resort would be the first of its kind in the state and would provide a major attraction for the region's residents and visitors, according to Schertzinger.

"It's essentially a destination resort inside the city limits," he told the city's Planning Commission.

It also would generate $1.2 million in room taxes and $1 million in property taxes annually. The resort would generate 15 full-time jobs and 150 part-time seasonal jobs, Schertzinger said.

Sales of the 370 condominium hotel units would generate part of the income for construction of the project, Schertzinger said. Private investors would provide the rest.

Deschutes County Commissioner Mike Daly spoke in favor of the development. He said it would bolster the county's wintertime tourism business and provide an entertainment draw for the fairgrounds.

"The fairgrounds have ballooned beyond anyone's imagination," Daly said. "I don't see a downside."

Redmond resident Ken Streater spoke in favor of the water park. He cited an increased tax base as a result of the project and the added cultural value of a resort inside city limits.

Schertzinger also noted the increased year-round tourism that would be generated by the resort. Central Oregon's roughly half-billion dollar tourism economy typically lags during the winter months.

"This attraction will be a great complement to the types of attractions we already have in Central Oregon," he said. "It will be another reason for visitors to come here and it promises to benefit many area businesses."

The zoning change still needs Redmond City Council approval. The project needs site and design as well as building approval from the City Council.

Developers said construction could begin by late summer.

Anonymous said...

"Once the owners of the BULL go BK, they'll simply shut down. Bend doesn't need a newspaper.

Exactly who are the owners of the BULL? Is it Gannet, or Rupert Murdock, or someone like that?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

how we can find the 'final solution' to the cali problem.

The Final Solution... that's awesome.

Anonymous said...

>>NWXC is going to open up section-8 housing to seniors.

Section 8? That reminds me of when Klinger went hang gliding.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Well Measure 49 passed. Looks like we can't bitch about the AWESOMENESS of Prop 37 anymore.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In addition, the new law settles some of the vagaries of Measure 37, which spawned stacks of lawsuits over potential developments, and whether those development rights could be sold.

But it would be a mistake to say Measure 49 will end the legal wrangling, said Redmond land use attorney Ed Fitch.

He said Tuesday that many of his clients will seek to continue the developments they planned under Measure 37.

And he also expects another round of ballot measures or legislation, as people continue to argue over what level of development is appropriate in rural Oregon.

“On both sides of the aisle, people recognize that Measure 37, the way it is written, is problematic,” he said. “But I also think Measure 49 is fairly punitive and will leave a lot of open sores, and if we don’t get a comprehensive resolution or reform we will end up right back where we were.”


Ed Fitch = Satan

What a fuckin moron. Fitch basically drove around rural OR picking up Prop 37 clients & convincing them to file claims, with absolutely NO WAY to follow thru on their developments. Lined his pockets at the expense of those he purported to help, exactly as I said would happen way back.

"NO ONE WILL BENEFIT FROM PROP 37 BUT LAWYERS."

No this fucker is pissed cuz his GRAVY TRAIN OF A LIFETIME, Prop 37, is gone.

FUCK YOU IN THE ASS ED FITCH.

Anonymous said...

Hitler's Ladder to Power

Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of Germany January 30, 1933, and absolute dictator in March 1933, after two years of expensive and violent lobbying and electioneering. Two affiliates of the Bush-Harriman organization played great parts in this criminal undertaking: Thyssen's German Steel Trust; and the Hamburg-Amerika Line and several of its executives.@s1@s3

Let us look more closely at the Bush family's German partners.

Fritz Thyssen told Allied interrogators after the war about some of his financial support for the Nazi Party: `` In 1930 or 1931 ... I told [Hitler's deputy Rudolph] Hess ... I would arrange a credit for him with a Dutch bank in Rotterdam, the Bank fu@aur Handel und Schiff [i.e. Bank voor Handel en Scheepvaart (BHS), the Harriman-Bush affiliate]. I arranged the credit ... he would pay it back in three years.... I chose a Dutch bank because I did not want to be mixed up with German banks in my position, and because I thought it was better to do business with a Dutch bank, and I thought I would have the Nazis a little more in my hands... .

`` The credit was about 250-300,000 [gold] marks--about the sum I had given before. The loan has been repaid in part to the Dutch bank, but I think some money is still owing on it.... ''@s1@s4

The overall total of Thyssen's political donations and loans to the Nazis was well over a million dollars, including funds he raised from others--in a period of terrible money shortage in Germany.

Friedrich Flick was the major co-owner of the German Steel Trust with Fritz Thyssen, Thyssen's long-time collaborator and occasional competitor. In preparation for the war crimes tribunal at Nuremberg, the U.S. government said that Flick was `` one of leading financiers and industrialists who from 1932 contributed large sums to the Nazi Party ... member of `Circle of Friends' of Himmler who contributed large sums to the SS. ''@s1@s5

Flick, like Thyssen, financed the Nazis to maintain their private armies called Schutzstaffel (S.S. or Black Shirts) and Sturmabteilung (S.A., storm troops or Brown Shirts).

The Flick-Harriman partnership was directly supervised by Prescott Bush, President Bush's father, and by George Walker, President Bush's grandfather.

The Harriman-Walker Union Banking Corp. arrangements for the German Steel Trust had made them bankers for Flick and his vast operations in Germany by no later than 1926.

The Harriman Fifteen Corporation (George Walker, president, Prescott Bush and Averell Harriman, sole directors) held a substantial stake in the Silesian Holding Co. at the time of the merger with Brown Brothers, Jan. 1, 1931. This holding correlated to Averell Harriman's chairmanship of the Consolidated Silesian Steel Corporation, the American group owning one-third of a complex of steel-making, coal-mining and zinc-mining activities in Germany and Poland, in which Friedrich Flick owned two-thirds.@s1@s6

The Nuremberg prosecutor characterized Flick as follows:

`` Proprietor and head of a large group of industrial enterprises (coal and iron mines, steel producing and fabricating plants) ... `Wehrwirtschaftsfuh@aurer', 1938 [title awarded to prominent industrialists for merit in armaments drive--`Military Economy Leader'].... ''@s1@s7

For this buildup of the Hitler war machine with coal, steel and arms production, using slave laborers, the Nazi Flick was condemned to seven years in prison at the Nuremberg trials; he served three years. With friends in New York and London, however, Flick lived into the 1970s and died a billionaire.

On March 19, 1934, Prescott Bush--then director of the German Steel Trust's Union Banking Corporation--initiated an alert to the absent Averell Harriman about a problem which had developed in the Flick partnership.@s1@s8 Bush sent Harriman a clipping from the New York Times of that day, which reported that the Polish government was fighting back against American and German stockholders who controlled `` Poland's largest industrial unit, the Upper Silesian Coal and Steel Company.... ''

The Times article continued: `` The company has long been accused of mismanagement, excessive borrowing, fictitious bookkeeping and gambling in securities. Warrants were issued in December for several directors accused of tax evasions. They were German citizens and they fled. They were replaced by Poles. Herr Flick, regarding this as an attempt to make the company's board entirely Polish, retaliated by restricting credits until the new Polish directors were unable to pay the workmen regularly. ''

The Times noted that the company's mines and mills `` employ 25,000 men and account for 45 percent of Poland's total steel output and 12 percent of her coal production. Two-thirds of the company's stock is owned by Friedrich Flick, a leading German steel industrialist, and the remainder is owned by interests in the United States. ''

In view of the fact that a great deal of Polish output was being exported to Hitler Germany under depression conditions, the Polish government thought that Prescott Bush, Harriman and their Nazi partners should at least pay full taxes on their Polish holdings. The U.S. and Nazi owners responded with a lockout. The letter to Harriman in Washington reported a cable from their European representative: `` Have undertaken new steps London Berlin ... please establish friendly relations with Polish Ambassador [in Washington]. ''

A 1935 Harriman Fifteen Corporation memo from George Walker announced an agreement had been made `` in Berlin '' to sell an 8,000 block of their shares in Consolidated Silesian Steel.@s1@s9 But the dispute with Poland did not deter the Bush family from continuing its partnership with Flick.

Nazi tanks and bombs `` settled '' this dispute in September, 1939 with the invasion of Poland, beginning World War II. The Nazi army had been equipped by Flick, Harriman, Walker and Bush, with materials essentially stolen from Poland.

There were probably few people at the time who could appreciate the irony, that when the Soviets also attacked and invaded Poland from the East, their vehicles were fueled by oil pumped from Baku wells revived by the Harriman/Walker/Bush enterprise.

Three years later, nearly a year after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the U.S. government ordered the seizure of the Nazis' share in the Silesian-American Corporation under the Trading with the Enemy Act. Enemy nationals were said to own 49 percent of the common stock and 41.67 percent of the preferred stock of the company.

The order characterized the company as a `` business enterprise within the United States, owned by [a front company in] Zurich, Switzerland, and held for the benefit of Bergwerksgesellschaft George von Giesche's Erben, a German corporation.... ''@s2@s0

Bert Walker was still the senior director of the company, which he had founded back in 1926 simultaneously with the creation of the German Steel Trust. Ray Morris, Prescott's partner from Union Banking Corp. and Brown Brothers Harriman, was also a director.

The investigative report prior to the government crackdown explained the `` NATURE OF BUSINESS: The subject corporation is an American holding company for German and Polish subsidiaries, which own large and valuable coal and zinc mines in Silesia, Poland and Germany. Since September 1939, these properties have been in the possession of and have been operated by the German government and have undoubtedly been of considerable assistance to that country in its war effort. ''@s2@s1

The report noted that the American stockholders hoped to regain control of the European properties after the war.

Anonymous said...

Exactly who are the owners of the BULL? Is it Gannet, or Rupert Murdock, or someone like that?

*

A regional, tied to the high-desert implosion. Going down.

THE BULL[SHIT]
Published daily in Bend, Oregon, by Western Communications, Inc. Copyright 2007.


Western Communications, Inc. publications
Published: November 07. 2007 4:00AM PST

Western Communications, Inc. produces print publications and Web sites in Oregon and California:

The Bulletin, Bend, OR

www.bendbulletin.com

Baker City Herald, Baker City, OR

www.bakercityherald.com

The Observer, La Grande, OR

www.lagrandeobserver.com

Hermiston Herald, Hermiston, OR

www.hermistonherald.com

Redmond Spokesman, Redmond, OR

Curry Coastal Pilot, Brookings, OR

www.currypilot.com

The Daily Triplicate, Crescent City, CA

www.triplicate.com

Union Democrat, Sonora, CA

www.uniondemocrat.com

Central Oregon Nickel Ads, Bend, OR

www.conickelads.com

Western Communications, Inc. produces print publications and Web sites in Oregon and California:

The Bulletin, Bend, OR

www.bendbulletin.com

Baker City Herald, Baker City, OR

www.bakercityherald.com

The Observer, La Grande, OR

www.lagrandeobserver.com

Hermiston Herald, Hermiston, OR

www.hermistonherald.com

Redmond Spokesman, Redmond, OR

Curry Coastal Pilot, Brookings, OR

www.currypilot.com

The Daily Triplicate, Crescent City, CA

www.triplicate.com

Union Democrat, Sonora, CA

www.uniondemocrat.com

Central Oregon Nickel Ads, Bend, OR

www.conickelads.com

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ed Fitch is like every other pathological fucked up mindless cannibal lawyer: does not give a shit if he fucks up the lives of thousands of people, as long as he makes a buck.

You want to reform something, REFORM THIS FUCKIN COUNTRY'S JUDICIAL SYSTEM. Profit-seeking motherfuckin psychos setting damn near EVERY LEGAL PRECEDENT? WHAT THE FUCK IS THAT? What if we paid cops PER ARREST? COPS on a COMMISSION pay scale? Whole fuckin country would be in jail. The EXECUTIVE BRANCH is ALL IN-HOUSE (SOCIALIZED). WHY? Because farming it out to fuckin BLACKWATER gun-crazed, trigger-happy motherfuckers would get half this country mowed down in cold blood.

SOCIALIZE THE FUCKIN JUDICIAL SYSTEM -- RIGHT NOW WE GOT FUCKIN "BLACKWATER" LAWYERS RUNNING THE SHOW. Put every motherfucker in JAIL, is the MANDATE of this country's judicial system. It's cuz we're on a PAY PER CONVICTION system.

ALL LAWYERS WORK FOR THE GOV'T
ASSIGNED TO CASES ON LOTTERY BASIS
PERSISTENT FAILURES ARE REVIEWED & FIRED

ED FITCH = PSYCHOTIC DISEASED LUNATIC

Man, everytime I see some FURIOUS BASTARD running after a LAWYER trying to kill their ass, I am cheering that dude on like there's no tomorrow! KILL THAT FUCKER!

Anonymous said...

They really are moving the Redmond water-park, its in todays BULL.

Can someone post the story.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

Your right. The M49 will open more disputes than before. I also think it will get declared 'unconstitutional'.

In the short-term, Brooks can now 'transfer' worthless land to suckers, who can hire Fitch, to do his magic.

Nobody has cash, and banks will no longer loan to build 'speculative' building in Oregon.

Besides lawyers M37 went no-where, perhaps M49 will go somewhere for those who were well connected prior to 1972 ( Hollern, Gray, ... ).

The vast majority of regular old farts that own pre 1972 land, will simply see what little cash they have go to lawyers.

The good news for 'environmental' folk, is that money that might have been spent to fuel lawyers will feed lawyers instead. The more wine & food they consume, the more likely they'll die an early death.

The continuum has now swung full circle for Hollern & Gray ( Black Butte & Sunriver ). They created SB100 ( 1972 ) to prevent competition, and now only they can build ( M49 ). Thirty five years ago they setup up a program for their children, and now they have setup up a program of enrichment for their grand-children.

How does all this happen under the nose?? Easy, just like the BULL, our only newspaper ( The BIG Zero ), goes with the program.

Oregon has always been a Kleptocracy, our pity dictator's let crumbs trickle down, we'll all be fine.

***

What M49 did was two things.
1.) Made pre 1972 rights transferrable, e.g. now you can sell land to suckers, who will then feed lawyers.
2.) Let's you build three homes on a parcel. Lets say you owned 100 acres pre 1972, and your name was Hollern, you had county make that into 100 parcels ( 300 homes ), then lets say you were nobody, then you can build 3 homes.

All of M49 is about who you knew pre-1972. You all must understand that this whole land control was all setup back in the 50's.

It's like the BUSH-NAZI story, these familys plan out for generations into the future. DUBYA's great grandfather wanted Europe, Dubya wants the Middle East.

Welcome to Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think the Ultimate story is that the Redmond Waterpark will get built. But the funding will be scaled back from $120,000,000, down to $120, and it'll move from the railroad tracks to the developers back yard.

It's called Slip-N-Slide.

Anonymous said...

"THE BULL[SHIT]
Published daily in Bend, Oregon, by Western Communications, Inc. Copyright 2007."

Ok, thanks for this, but who owns Western Communications? Is is a publicly traded company? If so, I can't find it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think Western Comm is private.

Timothy said...

Western Communications is family-owned. Not public.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Senior housing slated for Bend; Affordable apartments will house 65 to 70 people in NorthWest Crossing

This has got to help housing values over there. Geezers marauding the streets in electric carts... sweet.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow... WashMu, Umpqua, and CACB in freefall today. WashMu down almost 10%...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WashMu YIELDS over 10%!

When a bank YIELDS over 10%, someones looking for El Mucho Collapso.

And Umpqua... well, you gotta wonder what's going thru the mind of anyone who loaned $20 mill on The Plaza.

Anonymous said...

Wow... WashMu, Umpqua, and CACB in freefall today. WashMu down almost 10%...

*

Todays WSJ is the most negative yet.

Two critical story's.

1.) AIG to collapse, not just because ALL their premium is tied into sub-prime, because they don't have enough assets at even yesterdays value to cover all the life-insurance they wrote.

2.) "Coverage Ratio" Homer, being an MBA you'll love this. The corporations now on average have a coverage-ration of less than two. What this is is how much cash you take in a year, divided by interest debt. The average company now is spending ALL cash flow to service debt, and much of the debt is interest only.

BOTH the above means MASSIVE bankruptcy, which means banks are fucked. Which means "bank holiday" soon near you.

Anonymous said...

NWXC

But think about that term "apartments", who would have dreamed that NWXC would devolve into low-income apartment complex. Hell even Pedro don't want to be in a place of death.

Hollern is trying to get some matching federal dollars, and this is what Garzini and Kuratek do both.

You can be sure that there is some services being rendered to keep them both on the 'A-List'.

Anonymous said...

Months ago I told timmy, that no matter how good the deal, you would not be able to borrow money. Well its here, our #1 bank of choice for unemployed losers has quit doing MTG.

***

Washington Mutual shares tumble after sees loan losses
Wed Nov 7, 2007 4:03 PM GMT148


By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Washington Mutual Inc (WM.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the largest U.S. savings and loan, said on Wednesday the U.S. housing slump will persist through 2008, causing loan losses to mount and mortgage lending to fall to an eight-year low.

Washington Mutual's shares fell more than 9 percent to their lowest level since August 2000.

The Seattle-based thrift, which is also one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders, expects to set aside $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion this quarter for credit losses, and a similar amount or slightly more in the first quarter of 2008.

It expects credit losses to remain "elevated" through 2008. The thrift set aside $967 million in the third quarter, and expects to set aside $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion this year.

"The soft landing we were anticipating quickly transitioned to a severe downturn," Chief Executive Kerry Killinger said in a presentation to investors in New York. "This process is painful."

Lax underwriting standards industrywide meant too many borrowers were able to buy homes they could not afford. Delinquencies and defaults are mounting as falling home prices leave hundreds of thousands of borrowers unable to refinance.

Capital markets also seized up, saddling lenders with losses on subprime and other loans that investors will not buy.

Anonymous said...

Please drive by, walk around, and look at the House, look through the windows, then email request for appointment to see house
Gross Total Income of combined occupants $4800 or greater ( 4X ). 6 months or more on job. Stable employment history and/or proof of income. Five years work history on application. Good landlord references. Five years rental history on application. No evictions, collections or convictions. Identification required. No pets.

Tell us about yourself

1.) Where do you work? How long?
2.) Where do you live? How long?
3.) What kind of in-home business would you have, if you desire the work/live option ( City of Portland is very strict on USE )

Email to make an appointment to see home: sepdxrental@gmail.com

WORK/LIVE ZONED Home Close-In South-East Portland
4726 SE Division Street, Portland, Oregon

Hawthorne/Richmond/Clinton area office/home near Mt. Tabor, On Hawthorne/Division Bus Lines #4 and #14
Stumptown Coffee & Petite Provence Bakery nearby

North Side Shady Front Porch
Small Back Porch – Sunny Side
Full Basement with Storage Shelves
Landscaped / Fenced Yard
Off Street Parking

Two Separate Front Entry’s – One with separate Waiting Room
Two Bedrooms on Main Floor { or office rooms }
Two Bedrooms Upstairs with two walk-in Closets
1 Full Bathroom
Hardwood Floors
Tall Ceilings
Kitchen with eating area and tile counters
Forced Air Gas Furnace in Basement
New Washer & Dryer in Basement

All Utilities are Gas + Forced air natural Gas heating.

Commercial Alarm System
Security Iron on Windows and Doors at Ground Level

$1195/mo Rent - month to month
$500 refundable cleaning deposit

No Pets - No Smoking - Credit Check - References
You MUST Call for Appointment to see Building – Do Not Disturb Current Tenants

Email to make an appointment to see home: sepdxrental@gmail.com

1927 Commerical Office/Home, Full basement, 3 BD, office, bath, alarm, off-street parking.

This house would be excellent for an in-home business – software, legal, accounting, alternative medical….

There are two front doors. The main front office door has a separate waiting-room/office. There is a large living-room & dining room for ground level business with HW floors. The kitchen has an eating area, and the counters have plenty of tiled counter space. There is a back-room for privacy acupuncture/chiropractor…. Upstairs there is one small room and a huge room with lots of light. Both rooms upstairs have walk-in closets. The smaller upstair's room is a nice second office. The upstairs large bedroom also has a morning side window nook.

Terms of Tenancy:

$1195 per month, month-to-month tenancy.

$500 refundable deposit,

$18 application fee by check per occupant, Check returned if application is Declined.

Property Owner pays garbage, and does yard-work - weekly in summer.

Renter pays electric, gas, water

One bath-room, which means ONLY two adults may occupy

NO SUB-LEASING, NO CO-RENTING

Applicant Criteria Requirements:
Strictly Enforced

No Smoking within the Office/Home Structure.

Gross Total Income of combined occupants $4800 or greater. 4X

6 months or more on job. Stable employment history and/or proof of income. Five years work history on application.

Good landlord references. Five years rental history on application.

No evictions, collections or convictions. Oregon identification required.

No Pets.
Email: sepdxrental@gmail.com
Tel 1 503 608 7548
Email to make an appointment to see home: sepdxrental@gmail.com

Anonymous said...

TO DETERMINE IF RENAISSANCE HOMES HAS FILED BK YOU CAN CAL 503-326-2249 THE US BANKRUPTCY COURT IN PORTLAND AND SPEAK WITH THE CLERKS.

I HAVE HEARD THE RUMORS AMONG PORTLAND REALTORS AND BUSINESS ASSOCIATES.

IT TAKES ABOUT 3 WEEKS FOR THE INFORMATION TO BE POSTED IN THE AUTOMATED SYSTEM.

Timothy said...

>>Stable employment history and/or proof of income. Five years work history on application. Good landlord references. Five years rental history on application. No evictions, collections or convictions. Identification required. No pets. Tell us about yourself 1.) Where do you work? How long? 2.) Where do you live? How long?

What is that? A rental application or a job application to join the CIA?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How to profit from a 'police state'


The booming security business now employs as many as one-fourth of American workers. Here are four companies poised to make a bundle from our penchant for protection.

By Jon Markman

In the midst of a six-year war on terrorism, widening income inequality and a growing fear of immigrants, America has become something of a police state, according to a new study, with as much as 25% of our entire labor force focused on protection rather than production.

The evidence is all around us, from the 47% increase in U.S. workers classified as security guards since 2002 to the sharp advance in the number of men and women under arms in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

And it's not just public police forces and shopping-mall rent-a-cops. During the raging brush fires in Southern California last month, it was revealed that many wealthy homeowners now hire private firefighters through their insurance companies.

The study by noted Santa Fe Institute and University of Massachusetts economists Samuel Bowles and Arjun Jayadev, called "Garrison America," suggests that one in four Americans are now engaged in "guard labor," which means they either provide security for people and property or impose work discipline at factories, farms and retailers.

Similar calculations of guard labor for 18 other countries suggest that the United States is pretty much the leader in this category, slightly trailing Greece, a former military dictatorship, but well ahead of Western democracies such as Switzerland, which has just a 10th of its labor force devoted to guard labor.

Nations with the largest percentage of their work forces dedicated to security:Country Security workers as % of labor force
Greece 24%
United States 22.2%
United Kingdom 19.9%
Spain 19.8%
New Zealand 18.3%
Australia 18.2%
Belgium 18.1%
Canada 16.3%
Ireland 15.7%
Netherlands 14.3%

Note: Police personnel are not included due to lack of comparable data.

The increasing focus on protecting the existing economic pie rather than making more pie has important implications going forward, especially as we head into a year in which something like $1 trillion in adjustable-rate-mortgage adjustments will hit low-income and middle-class homeowners like a pie in the face.

You don't need a Ph.D. in behavioral science to realize that a material number of household heads, faced with the loss of their homes and cars to foreclosure and repo men, will turn to theft, drugs and violence amid a sense of frustration with their deteriorating status, just as they have in past periods of economic dislocation.

In this scenario, the world of protection and corrections is likely to enter boom times just as the economy slips sideways toward a slowdown or recession. Indeed, the guard biz is probably the most countercyclical play you can consider as an investor -- right up there with public companies focused on bankruptcy software, business restructuring and Pentagon contracting.

Welcome, downwardly mobile yuppies, to the dawn of the Age of Nefarious.
Guarded optimism
There are ways for cynical investors to make a buck off the new world disorder, and that is by considering investments in companies that supply security guards, build and staff prisons, and run psychiatric hospitals.

It is an unsavory business, to be sure, that has had run-ins with the law, politicians and common sense. Yet the industry is also more professional now than in past eras, run by a new breed of executives more sensitive to public perceptions and moral norms -- rather than the brutes who ruled by guts, grease and intimidation in years past.

* Video: Prisoners graduate from college

Key names in the industry that we need to focus on are prison titan Corrections Corp. of America (CXW, news, msgs), which sports a $3.3 billion stock-market capitalization; Geo Group (GEO, news, msgs), which has a $1.1 billion market cap; Cornel (CRN, news, msgs), which has a $340 million cap; and Brink's (BCO, news, msgs) at $3 billion. You could probably throw in the major drug companies that make antidepressants Prozac, Paxil and Zoloft, too, but we don't really need to go there. Let's look at the three in detail.

Of the bunch, Geo looks in many ways the most attractive. The second-largest operator of private correctional facilities in the United States and provider of rehab, educational and mental-health services to boot, Geo operates numerous maximum- and minimum-security prisons domestically and in Scotland, South Africa and Canada.

The company is poised to benefit from rising demand from states and federal immigration agencies that are overwhelmed by their rising criminal and detainee populations and see an outsourced solution provider as an ideal partner. Governments hate being in the business of building prisons and dealing with bad guys, so per diem fees are steadily marching higher for Geo and its peers because of a real lack of capacity.

In a nutshell, when rising demand meets stagnant supply, companies can raise prices and profitability soars. Figure that the company can earn $1.70 a share in 2009 on revenues of about $1.1 billion. With a price-to-earnings multiple of 23 -- reasonable for a company growing at better than 20% -- shares could get to $39, a 34% move from here. It won't be a straight shot, though, as bad things happen at prisons from time to time that can temporarily pressure a stock like this -- and facility populations can vary from quarter to quarter, making earnings somewhat unpredictable.

Meanwhile, Corrections Corp. operates around 65 correctional, detention and juvenile facilities in the United States with a total capacity of more than 72,000 beds in 19 states. It also provides prisoner-transportation services through a subsidiary. The company has been racking up contract wins in the past few months, with a 7,772-bed deal from the California Department of Corrections in October probably the most emblematic since it replaced a 5,670-bed contract with the same agency.

The company also recently announced it would now begin building a new 3,060-bed correctional facility in Eloy, Ariz., to house its overflow of California inmates starting around this time next year. Some of its other California inmates will go to its Tennessee and Florida operations. I figure the company can earn $1.71 a share in 2009, which with a price-earnings multiple of 23 would put the stock at around $39, up 40% from the current quote.
Backing up the truck
And finally Brink's offers a whole different take on the idea as it provides home-security systems and services, armored-car transportation, airport security and guard services. The company reported strong earnings last week with all segments hitting their marks.

The company's international business, such as armored transportation in Latin America, was a standout, while the residential-housing crunch did put a bit of a damper on the home-security business, which was up just 1.6%. Fortunately that was offset by commercial-security results, which rocked. I figure the company can protect itself and shareholders by earning as much as $3.52 a share in 2009, which would put the stock at $81, up 26% from today's price, on a P/E of 23.

I'm not crazy about the state of affairs that has led to prisons being a growth industry, but investors need to play the hand they're dealt. Lock 'n' load.

mperlat said...

this is about real estate in what form.This site is losing sight.Ha i like that.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Get jiggy Gee-munee. According to BendBuster, prisons are our future.

Anonymous said...

NY Times

November 8, 2007
Homeowners Feel the Pinch of Lost Equity
By PETER S. GOODMAN
RENO, Nev., Nov. 5 — As his wedding day approached last spring, Marshall Whittey found that his money could not keep pace with the grandiosity of his plans. But rather than scale back, he chose instead, like millions of homeowners across the country, to borrow against the soaring value of his home.

He and his bride, Holly Whittey, exchanged vows on the grounds of a sumptuous private estate in the Napa Valley. They spent their honeymoon at a resort in Tahiti.

But now, in an ominous portent for the national economy, Mr. Whittey has grown tight with his money. His home is worth far less than it was a year ago, and his equity has evaporated. And like many other involuntary adopters of a newly economical lifestyle, he can borrow no more.

“It used to be that if I wanted it, I’d just go and buy it and finance it,” Mr. Whittey, 33, said. “I’m feeling the crunch, and my spending is down significantly.”

The Whitteys and others like them are at the center of deepening worries that the economy is headed for a substantial slowdown, possibly even a recession, as the artery of cash from Americans borrowing against the value of their homes has sharply narrowed.

“Everybody was basically using their house as an A.T.M. machine,” said Dave Simonsen, a senior vice president for NAI Alliance, an industrial real estate firm in Reno. “Now they are upside down on their house without that piggy bank to go back to.”

From 2004 through 2006, Americans pulled about $840 billion a year out of residential real estate, via sales, home equity lines of credit and refinanced mortgages, according to data presented in an updated working paper by James Kennedy, an economist, and Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman. These so-called home equity withdrawals financed as much as $310 billion a year in personal consumption from 2004 to 2006, according to the data.

But in the first half of this year, equity withdrawals were down 15 percent nationally compared with the average for the last three years, and consumption supported by such funds plunged nearly one-fourth, according to the Kennedy and Greenspan data.

This summer, the size of withdrawals fell even more sharply to about one-third below the level of late last year, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

“This slide in equity withdrawal is very recent,” Mr. Zandi said, “so you wouldn’t expect the drop in spending to occur until now, or Christmas.”

Only a year ago, money taken out of houses was still more than 9 percent of the nation’s disposable income, Mr. Zandi calculated, using a sampling of Equifax credit reports to supplement Fed data. By this fall, it had dropped to about 5 percent, a difference of about $350 billion a year.

Much of the attention in the recent collapse of the housing boom has focused on those in danger of losing their home or facing higher monthly payments in their adjustable mortgages. But the broader effect on the economy is likely to come from the much larger group of homeowners who can no longer count on rising home values to bolster their wealth.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of all economic activity in the United States, or about $9.8 trillion, so even a slight dip in home borrowing takes huge amounts of money out of the flow. The prospect of a slowdown, combined with the squeeze on households from higher oil costs, is sending shivers through the retail world, as apparel merchants, furniture dealers and electronics stores brace for the possibility that the all-important holiday shopping season will disappoint. Automakers are bemoaning sluggish sales.

“A fall of 2 percent in consumption would be big enough to trigger a recession,” said Christian Menegatti, lead analyst for RGE Monitor, a consulting firm in New York.

Many a premature obituary, of course, has been written for the American consumer — only to see spending continue apace. Just last week, the Commerce Department announced the economy grew a healthy 3.9 percent during the summer, largely on the back of growing consumer spending.

Other forces, like increased exports and continued gains in jobs and incomes, may compensate enough for the loss in home borrowing to avoid an economic downturn next year. But many economists say a slowdown in spending is overdue as Americans are forced to curb their appetite for goods to restore balance to an off-kilter global economy.

The United States has for years been running huge trade deficits while borrowing heavily from China and Japan. This makes Americans vulnerable to the possibility that foreigners could slow purchases of American debt, sending the dollar plummeting and forcing the Fed to raise interest rates. Some say the best way to avoid such a situation is for Americans to start saving more and spending less.

“If you take the 10-year view,” cutting consumption is “the least bad outcome,” said Robert A. Barbera, chief economist at research firm ITG.

In the near term, though, any dip in consumer spending is likely to sow pain. Strong sales for American companies abroad may keep the United States out of a full-fledged recession even if spending slips at home, Mr. Barbera said, but nonetheless “it will feel like a recession.”

Sprawled across desert flats and framed by the rugged peaks of the Sierra, Reno encapsulates, in concentrated form, the forces at work on American consumers. In Nevada, and in neighboring California, home equity finance was about 20 percent of all disposable income at the end of last year, according to Economy.com. This September, it was down to about 9 percent.

While best known for its gambling, Reno has in recent years diversified, using low taxes to entice major companies like Cisco Systems and Microsoft. With land cheap, the area has been a magnet for Californians who sold homes for spectacular gains, then moved here to buy more space for less money. The metropolitan area’s population has swelled to 409,000, up 50,000 since 2000.

Many of the newcomers settled in developments on the edge of town. Ranch land that less than a decade ago was still a moonscape of sun-baked soil dotted with sagebrush has been transformed into golf courses and Spanish-style houses on streets with names like Painted Vista Drive and Rio Wrangler.

Free-flowing credit and rampant speculation drove residential sales. From May 2002 to September 2005, home prices in Reno and the adjacent city of Sparks more than doubled, according to First American LoanPerformance.

Since then, however, the median house price has slipped 15 percent.

Local businesses are already suffering the effects of consumers who are less inclined to buy. A Volkswagen dealership downtown said sales were down two-thirds from a year ago. At the Flowing Tide, a bar and restaurant in south Reno, the co-owner Justin Moscove said business was down 10 to 15 percent.

At the Meadowood Mall, near the airport, shoppers were scarce. “We’re dead,” said Cendy Rodriguez, manager at Lane Bryant, the plus-size women’s clothing store, who said business was down 25 percent over the last two months. “I don’t think it’s going to be nowhere near the Christmas we had last year.”

At Sierra Nevada Spas and Billiards, Ezra O’Connor, the sales manager, complained that not even drastically lower prices were attracting shoppers. “We’re way down, 35 percent down from last year,” Mr. O’Connor said. “People just aren’t wanting to spend.”

Mr. Whittey once seemed an unlikely member of that cohort. A sales manager at a flooring and tile company, he exudes the unflappable air of someone raised amid the easy money of the casino world. Until recently, he and his wife regularly embarked on shopping sprees of $1,000 and up.

He bought a 21-foot boat and two flat-screen televisions for their home. He sold his old truck and bought a new one, he said, “just ’cause I didn’t like the color.” Mr. Whittey could live in such fashion because his company was making good money and his house was appreciating.

But today, the value of his own home, which reached $500,000, has fallen and a separate investment property he bought seems likely to fetch far less than the $580,000 he owes the bank. His commissions have diminished, so his income is down. His neighbor recently fell behind on house payments, prompting the bank to foreclose. Anxiety reigns.

“We used to go out to eat three or four nights a week,” Mr. Whittey said. “Now, we don’t go out at all.”

Even among those who indulged lightly in the credit bonanza, tightness is increasing.

Stephanie Lerude, her husband and their two boys have lived for five years in their ranch house on a quiet street in an older part of Reno. Wicker furniture sits on porches, basketball hoops dot driveways and orange leaves crown the tops of cottonwood trees.

Three years ago, Ms. Lerude and her husband, a lawyer, opened an $80,000 home equity line to invest in three commercial properties. She uses one as the office for her company, which provides gift baskets for real estate offices.

Their payments are manageable, and their house is worth about $540,000, about $100,000 more than they paid for it. Still, they are limiting purchases and postponing a kitchen renovation because of what they see happening all around them.

“I’m just not a big consumer,” Ms. Lerude said. “We’re trying to do less.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Todays sizing up to be a Yet Another Bottom in the subprime stock market see-saw. Time to go all in...

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Anonymous said...

---------


Slowdown ahead; ‘R’ word isn’t likely
State economist, professor says transition won’t be easy
By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: November 08. 2007 5:00AM PST
Bend is heading for a “painful transition” as the local economy cools from a run-up fueled by housing, an Oregon economic consultant and professor said Wednesday, although the region should avoid a recession.

Tom Potiowsky spoke at the Bend Chamber’s Economic Forecast Vision ’08, which drew 400 audience members at the Riverhouse Convention Center. Potiowsky, state economist and economics professor at Portland State University, described how the national economy is seeing sluggish growth and offered an economic outlook for Oregon and for Bend: The housing market is a “time-release capsule” that will experience general slowing at least through 2008.

“(After that), I hope we will dodge the recession bullet,” he said.

Overall, Oregon has seen a slowing economy through most of 2007, but it should improve a bit through 2008 and 2009, Potiowsky said.

Energy costs may stabilize, with the natural gas price outlook encouraging amid higher oil prices. The Oregon Public Utility Commission announced last month that natural gas rates in most of the state will decline, only slightly increasing in Central Oregon.

The statewide housing market will continue to slide in 2008, but should stabilize at the end of the year. Flat or mild growth in housing is expected by 2009, Potiowsky said.

He noted that Oregon’s home appreciation bloomed later than the United States as a whole due to Oregon’s 2001 recession slowing its growth. That means the state isn’t seeing as dramatic a downturn in housing appreciation as states like California and Washington, Potiowsky said.

“(Housing) developments have halted here,” he said. “The adjustments are what many economists would say had to happen.”

The local housing market, with its emphasis on single-family homes, was grossly inflated and now the rest of the economy is trying to sort itself out in the absence of that abnormal growth, he said.

“(That is) confirmation of what I had already felt in Bend,” Ascent Capital Management partner Scott Agnew said afterward. “Something that goes up too fast will fall.”

Three years ago, many of Agnew’s clients were enamored of Bend’s housing market, forsaking diversification in their investment portfolios by putting most of their eggs in the real estate basket. He worried that Bend was heading for the same fate of the dot-com bubble of 1999.

“People became so enamored by this type of growth,” Agnew said. “The blinders come on … they could see the fool’s gold.”

Now, Agnew says, many of those clients are trying to ride through the housing slump, unable to sell their real estate.

But, like Potiowsky, Agnew thinks Central Oregon could chug through a growth slowdown.

“A dynamic business environment will help us weather (the storm),” Agnew said.

Job growth


Local job growth has slowed dramatically, with year-over-year growth down to 2.5 percent to 3 percent compared with year-ago levels of 7 percent to 8 percent job growth, Potiowsky said. Still, the region is seeing better growth than elsewhere in the state.

“Pain is relative,” Potiowsky said. “Other places in the state wish they (would) have 2 percent job growth.”

In the next few months, however, Potiowsky predicted that job growth numbers could fall below 2 percent.

Next year is likely to be a slow employment-growth year for the state, he said, with some job losses in Deschutes County’s construction industry.

“But you’re coming in off a huge mountain built on construction jobs,” Potiowsky said, adding that September 2006 saw construction-related job growth at 19 percent, which dropped to 3.3 percent in September 2007.

High-tech, financial and retail jobs are expected to have slower growth, he said, although the sectors are not expected to lose jobs.

As residential building permits drop in Bend, so too will the number of real estate jobs.

“(During the peak of the housing market), anybody who could walk or breathe became a real estate agent,” Potiowsky said. “We are now seeing a slow-growth period, and when a (service) isn’t in high demand, it goes away.”

In the state, personal income growth is growing at about the same rate as the nation, 4 percent, with more people saving money instead of “using their mortgage as their personal ATMs,” Potiowsky said.

Manufacturing


Wood products businesses have slowed the most in the manufacturing industry, a direct indicator of slowing home construction, Potiowsky said.

In airplane manufacturing, Bend’s Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp. is experiencing financial troubles, recently filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Epic Aircraft in Bend, however, is finding financing a bit easier, with a nearly $200 million investment from an East Indian billionaire.

Tourism


The declining value of the dollar could be good news for Central Oregon tourism, Potiowsky said, as European and Canadian tourists find their money worth more in the United States.

Higher gas prices, however, may mean that residents will travel less, opting to spend their free time closer to home.

Recession?


Deschutes County’s risk of recession is greater now, Potiowsky said, but underlying economic conditions like population growth remain strong. A recession is typically defined as at least two consecutive quarters of a decline in gross domestic product.

With new people moving to Central Oregon every day, the region should weather the housing downturn, Potiowsky said, although the transition from stellar growth to normal or low growth is painful.

“As long as you can hold onto your quality of life, you’ll be able to attract an abnormally high population growth,” he said.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Slowdown ahead; ‘R’ word isn’t likely

Dang, this whole piece is about the bursting of the RE bubble, even comparing it to the NASDAQ bubble.... and yet the guy says "everything will be just fine".

I don't get that.

At first, everyone denied there was a bubble & the good times would last forever. Now they acknowledge that we were in a "bubble"... but the unwinding of this particular bubble... "grossly inflated" were his words... is going to be a smooth, orderly soft landing.

Bubbles, at the end of their life, Pop. They don't "slowdown"...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Local job growth has slowed dramatically, with year-over-year growth down to 2.5 percent to 3 percent compared with year-ago levels of 7 percent to 8 percent job growth, Potiowsky said. Still, the region is seeing better growth than elsewhere in the state.

Job Growth ~= Population Growth

Here's the problem: We're an economy built on 8% (or more) growth. Business plans in 2006 were for 8% more STUFF... homes, restaurants, stores, all sorts of stuff... and we are not pulling in 8% pop growth anymore.

If Bend had 80K people at the end of 2006, and builders built homes for 6,400 more people in 2007 and there's really only going to be 1,600... they could stop now, and we'd probably have enough homes in the pipe for 4 years. Add to that the vast flipper bait inventory. Scale back growth to 0%... man, that could be a decade of homes, not to mention all that other investment, just gone.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“(During the peak of the housing market), anybody who could walk or breathe became a real estate agent,” Potiowsky said.

Walk? Hell, you ain't gotta walk!

I remember talking to agents when this mass-agentizing happened... "There's more than enough for everybody!" was the RE party line. I'm wondering if they think that now? 109 Bend residential sales in Oct... maybe 2,500 - 2,600 RE brokers. Yup, "more than enough".

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And you should take these Economist predictions with a grain of salt. One of the Best Ways to tell if a recession is OVER, is mass consensus by economists that we're just getting into one. I've seen them deny that 2 negative quarters is a "real" recession, despite the fact that that is the definition... then, once there have been 3-4 quarters, they'll admit it, and say it'll never end... which it promptly does.

Walk around downtown, talk to people, that's a better way to figure out what's going on. Economists, mass media have a 1-2 year lag time... plus they are just deluded.

Bend Economy Man said...

Walk? Hell, you ain't gotta walk

No, Paul, it says walk OR breathe. Just one or the other was enought to become a real estate agent.


This story, like all others where someone predicts what's going to happen in the Bend economy, leans heavily on the idea that people are still flocking to Bend. It's a big "if", is what it is, not something this town can count on to carry it through.

With new people moving to Central Oregon every day, the region should weather the housing downturn, Potiowsky said

As you said, Paul, job growth = population growth. How are you going to get this "new people every day" kind of population growth if there are no jobs for them?

Oh, I forgot, the people who move here are affluent. They don't need jobs. And the business environment is so "dynamic," every single venture succeeds!

Bruce said...

In my neighborhood we've had 4 or 5 leave with 1-2 move-ins in the last six months. Reed Market and Silverlake Blvd. area.

Any more on the ground perceptions?

Timothy said...

>>The statewide housing market will continue to slide in 2008, but should stabilize at the end of the year. Flat or mild growth in housing is expected by 2009, Potiowsky said.

Ouch. My eyes rolled so hard I got lensburn.

So, while the futures market says the nation goes down until 2011, Bend somehow turns up in the midst of that. Call it the "dead cat hover."

Timothy said...

>>“(Housing) developments have halted here,” he said. “The adjustments are what many economists would say had to happen.”

Does the guy ever come out of his office? They have absolutely not halted. Right now I can hear the irritating "beep beep beep" of dirt movers in NW Crossing.

When I drive to the store today, I'll somehow manage to get behind a gravel truck. I'll take a turn to get away from it and end up behind a dirt truck.

Some builders are out of money, but by no means have all the maniacs stopped building houses yet.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Some builders are out of money, but by no means have all the maniacs stopped building houses yet.

Paradoxically, I see the same. Building has NOT stopped. I DO see some subdiv's that never started building spec, and they have to sell a house to build a house... these places are like a morgue. But places that are building spec, are building like crazy.

walk OR breathe

I did miss the "or". I kept my standards stubbornly high during the boom, and actually insisted on a living person, and refused to deal with the several brain-dead corpses I interviewed...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

They have started grading that big ~40ac lot over at Eagle & Butler Mkt. That's room for 400 homes right there. Good timing too: snow coming, demand imploding... what are these people thinking? What is their bank thinking? This parcel was the subject of a lawsuit I think, although the details escape me now. Many, many millions spent, I know that...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think we hit a panic bottom in these banks for the short term... I think that This -- the 3rd "discounting" of the home bubble bursting -- will finally be followed by serious pain in a few months. But I think we'll head back up to 14K+ for now. Once the final decline starts, that's when we'll start seeing banking failures, or "mergers" (lease assumptions).

Remember: I do NOT follow my own investment advice, as I have found monkey's flipping coins often outperform my own advice.

Anonymous said...

"Higher gas prices may mean that residents will travel less, opting to spend their free time closer to home."

Yes!!!! Higher gas prices are a GOOD thing! That way no one will want to leave Central Oregon, and all the tourist dollars will STAY here!

Anonymous said...

What starts in the east comes to the west . .

November 9, 2007

A Real Estate Speculator Goes From Boom to Bust

By JOHN LELAND NY Times

ST. CHARLES, Mo. — The home foreclosure business was very good to Todd Haupt. He started buying and flipping foreclosed houses in 1994, when he was 20, and by 2000 he graduated to building homes.

At 32, with just one semester of community college, he owned a BMW, a Corvette and a 5,000-square-foot house worth $1.2 million. He was a creation of the boom. “I was on top of the world,” Mr. Haupt said recently.

Then, last May, the real estate market stopped booming.

Now Mr. Haupt’s house is in the hands of his creditors, as are the cars, three small office buildings and 89 lots he bought in a subdivision in neighboring Lincoln County.

He owes about $6 million in personal and business debt, and as Mr. Haupt’s fortunes soured, so have those of plumbers, electricians, framers, landscapers, supply stores and others that relied on his business, which he estimated at $300,000 per month.

“And that’s just little bitty me,” he said.

Mr. Haupt is one of thousands of Americans who jumped into the raging housing market of the last decade, which was heralded in stories of neighbors’ windfalls and reality television shows like “Flip That House,” “Flip This House” and “Flipping Out.”

Driving past his empty house recently, Mr. Haupt considered how things had crashed so fast.

“I feel like, yes, I overextended myself,” he said. “But when do you know not to overextend yourself? If I had a crystal ball, I never would have built my house. But when do you know? That’s why we’re speculators.”

He added, “If the banks had a crystal ball, they might not be in this mess either.”

St. Charles County, an affluent, fast-growing neighbor of St. Louis, was a natural incubator for speculators like Mr. Haupt, with a construction boom that doubled the population from 1980 to 2001.

Subdivisions with names like Crimson Meadows, Spring Mill and Barton Creek, pushed the suburban frontier ever farther from St. Louis. For a young builder, the low price of credit drove down the costs of building and drove up the homes’ sale prices.

As long as the market kept going, Mr. Haupt felt he could not lose.

His million-dollar house now sits forlorn and unattended, a dead spot in an expensive subdivision that was once all cornfields. Asked to identify the architectural style, he said, “I call it ‘Bank Repossession’ now.”

He now rents a small house for $1,275 a month. He became a born-again Christian in February, after his business and his marriage collapsed.

Mr. Haupt, whose parents work for a local supermarket, got into the real estate business after attending a seminar on how to buy property with no money down.

At 20, taking a mortgage that required no income check (also called a stated income or liar loan), he bought a house for $20,000, then flipped it for a quick profit of $4,000 or $5,000.

It was less than he had hoped, but more than he was making at UPS. He was hooked. By 2000, he was carrying as many as 25 foreclosed houses at a time, renovating them and selling at a profit of $10,000 to $15,000 each. With his success, he was able to establish lines of credit with eight commercial banks. He never thought about the homeowners who had lost the houses that he flipped.

“It’s a fine line,” he said. “You’re making money off what they lost. Is that wrong? Now that I’m in that position today, losing my house, I see that it’s just business.”

As the price of foreclosed houses rose, reducing his profits, Mr. Haupt shifted to building houses in subdivisions in Lincoln County, a less affluent area slightly farther from St. Louis. That required heavier borrowing but brought higher profits.

For the price of a longer commute to work, buyers got new homes that promised to go up in value as development continued around them. By last May Mr. Haupt owned 65 lots and had a contract to buy 20 more, for about $650,000.

Then gasoline prices spiked, and the longer commute became a deal-breaker.

Mr. Haupt had never questioned the ability of buyers to afford the increasingly expensive homes, or how far the boom could continue. “I never did any homework on the home buyers; I just built the houses,” he said. “My feeling was, if they’re approved, they’re approved, I’m going to build them a house.”

By February, he said, he was sitting in his 5,000-square-foot house with no money, a quarter tank of gas, and too much pride to accept money from his family or friends. “I couldn’t put the key in the ignition because I didn’t know where I’d get my next tank of gas,” he said.

On a recent afternoon, Cort Schneider, a St. Charles real estate agent, pointed out foreclosed properties on a drive through the area — new houses in new subdivisions, just old enough for their adjustable rate mortgages to reset beyond the owners’ means.

Lori Henderson, a vice president at First Advantage Bank, who arranged loans for Mr. Haupt since 2001, said that until the market turned, he was a good risk. “Todd performs,” Ms. Henderson said. But when she advised him not to buy more lots last year, he simply went to other lenders.

“People were upset about the war, gas prices were up, people were backing out of contracts,” she said. “It wasn’t the time for a small builder to take on two and a half years’ worth of inventory.”

Despite its fast growth, St. Charles County has been spared the precipitous ups and downs of the housing markets on the coasts, said Mark Stallman, chief executor of the St. Charles County Association of Realtors.

But for builders like Mr. Haupt, who were heavily leveraged, the slowdown — especially in Lincoln County — was catastrophic.

“It’s a bad time to be a builder,” Mr. Stallman said. “But it’s a good time to buy a house.”

In a county where one in 10 workers is employed in construction, twice the national average, the slump has taken its toll. Ron Vogt, an electrical contractor who often worked for Mr. Haupt, said his business had fallen to 15 percent of its former level, which in a good year did $700,000 worth of work. The 89 lots in Lincoln County have left what Mr. Haupt called a “ghost town” effect for the homeowners in the unfinished development.

“I can see why they’re upset,” he said. “When they moved in, they thought the neighborhood was going to be built up.” Mr. Haupt now works for a company that sells bottled water and energy drinks, and drives an orange pickup truck covered with logos for Tahitian Noni water.

He picks up money from side jobs, including finding houses for speculators still in the market.

Colleagues who became wealthy when he did are in the same situation, he said. “I asked one guy, ‘What are you doing today?’” he said. “He said, ‘I’m going to cut the grass, then my wife is going to make me eggs.’”

Anonymous said...

I can't wait until I'm facefucking all of you socialists. You've ruined everything and now you'll soon pay for it. Better practice swallowing.

Bend Economy Man said...

I can't wait until I'm facefucking all of you socialists.

So do you think there's a real estate bubble or not?

Bruce said...

Socialists?

I'm a fucking entrepreneur with multiple business starts, several patents, and a healthy regard for profits.

But I hate losses. Making it up in volume is a suckers game.

Anonymous said...

I can't wait until I'm facefucking all of you socialists in Garzini's new Juniper Ridge Prison. You've ruined everything and now you'll soon pay for it. Better practice swallowing. We'll have you all working 24/7 making tires. I hope you like the smell of vulcanization. There are many of us in Bend that are 100% behind the dreams and goals of Bend. The future is security. The best paid citizens will be working Bend's prisons. Abu Ghraib will be childs play, and there will be no internet.