Sunday, August 2, 2009

Recovery or Slow Bleed Out From Catching Knives?

From my front porch, about half the homes I can see in my neighborhood are in trouble, whether foreclosure (recently past, present, or future), short sale, or a state of suspended animation where the tapped-out owner can't get out from under the thing to leave Bend.

So you might think, "Hey, it's half over! We're close to the end!"

Well, no. Remember the Sad Tale of Jay Audia, knife catcher extraordinaire, he was the second to crash and burn on that sad 38ac plot.

Maybe that's the plot of this short post this week: Land & RE crashes are long & drawn-out affairs that claim many victims with the same piece of property claiming sucker after sucker, all of whom think THEY are buying at rock bottom.

Do you think there's any Jap's who have made a dime in the past 18 years? No, and they just keep turning the same property over & over again. And all new owners just lose money.

Again folks, keep your powder dry. And keep it dry until people are literally paying you to take these white elephants off their hands.

You keep hearing about a "recovery". But this is just the after-effects of TRILLIONS of dollars of DEBT being printed & being handed out to AmeriKKKa's most deserving citizens: Those who got us into this mess to begin with.

And I guess they throw Joe Sixpack a bone now & then. "Cash For Klunkers" is a good example of that.

Or is it just YOU borrowing from YOURSELF (or your kids) to buy a car NOW that you don't really need, so you can pay it off later in higher taxes.

Folks, irresponsible lending got us into this, and it hasn't gone away. If anything it has been ramped up to unimaginable heights by the Borrower & Lender Of Last Resort; The US Government.

This entity (which is us, really) has gone catatonic. Borrowing & GIVNG us TRILLIONS of our own money in a economy warping & personal spending warping attempt to jump-start this economy.

But DEBT NEVER SOLVES FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS... it just delays them.

Debt can help, if there is a REAL & TANGIBLE plan for paying it off. We don't have that.

WE ARE THE ONES DROWNING IN DEBT, AND WE ARE THE ONES WHO WILL HAVE TO PAY OFF ALL THIS BORROWING.

There is No Plan, neither real nor tangible, for paying this off. We will all see this in a short while.

But, for now, it is having wonderful effects! Have a look at my DJIA update for L/T Fair Value:
DJIA Long Term Regression

It's hard to see, but we've had one hell of a rally. The "low" of the recent dip was Mar 9, 2009 at 6,547, or 32% below the long term best fit estimate of 9,627.

As of Friday, we had rallied to 9,172, or only 7% below the L/T regression estimate of 9,865.

Here is a graph of the "difference" between the actual price & the least squares estimate:
Actual - Least Sq Estimate

And for you pedantic types, that's actually ln(1 + (Actual - Est)). I use natural logs to do the work here, so you have to exp() things back out to get actual numbers.

Anyway, you can see that recent fall has been one of the most precipitous in history, and the subsequent rally has at least matched it in ferocity.

But you can see that the last time the market passed below it's L/T regression estimate, it took decades for it to get back above & stay there for any length of time.

My own feeling is that given the macro-view of the World, we are in a massive deleveraging the likes of which will never be seen again, that we could hit fair value (DJIA 9,865) or even a little above, before it dawns on market participants that the other shoe has yet to drop.

And we may never hit the recent March low of 6,547 again. Maybe. But we could go several years in the monster 3,500 pt trading range that we've been in for the past few months.

That's at least how I plan on playing it. I still hold all the stocks & mutual funds I bought late last year into the teeth of the decline.

But I am very inclined to start selling these things off between 9,500 & 10K.

Things turned out a lot the way I said they would, but not the way I thought they would. I was convinced that RV's would make a stunning reversal, at least valuation-wise.

Funny thing though: I bought them down 92% from their highs, which ended up to be a waystation on their way to a 99.8% decline after I bought them.

I put a lot in Monoco & Fleetwood. All gone. And I was really convinced those would be my big winners.

No, my big gainer was Lithia Motors, sitting right at $12, up around 700% from it's cycle low of about a buck fifty.
Lithia Motors, 1 yr

I have NO ILLUSIONS about this one though. Lithia has a business model that has been goosed by 2 things:

1) Cash for Klunkers
2) The mass wipe-out of competitors

Cash for Klunkers is giving the old girl a shot of Bloody Mary Kool-Aid in the midst of a multi-year hangover.

Lithia was also spared a LOT of the pain of having dealerships summarily closed due to their overall volume. This helped them immensely, probably revaluing all their dealerships up 50-100%. This helped them actually turn a decent profit, as reported Friday.

So at a market value of $252MM with 92 dealerships, the market values this beast at $2.74MM per dealership. But that's only equity & these guys have lots of debt.

But I think that we're in the early phase of a general topping out in equities, and the next leg down could begin at any time. I just see the lower end of the graph above being our range for the foreseeable future.

And the top of that range is around 10K, and the bottom is thousands of points below us now. The risk/reward doesn't look good.

OK, and just to be clear, I still own everything I bought last Summer & Fall... but I am looking at hard rallies from here to start to sell it off. And that looks to be between here & 1,000 pts above where we are.

OK, moving on...

I guess you have to be a real Bendite to see the Kool-Aid wishes and caviar dreams embedded in today's Bully piece, "Building up Bend’s business landscape".

It's just ridiculous, the amount of puff pieces we must endure from this pathetic rag. Tagline:

Are things finally looking up in Bend? Olive Garden, Dick’s and now Kohl’s are all coming to town. What does that say about the region? That it still has what retailers and others seek, some say.

Thy never stop running this sort of thing. When Gottschalks came to town, it was because Bend Is Special. As it is now.

Bend remains an attractive market, say people familiar with the area’s economy, as evidenced by news that two prominent national retailers — Dick’s Sporting Goods and Kohl’s department store — have plans to open here this fall and in spring 2010, respectively. Additionally, a prominent restaurant chain, Olive Garden, has launched construction in Bend and will open this winter.

My God, this is pathetic.

First, there is the TYPICAL UNSOURCED CLAIM that "Bend is an attractive market". Absolutely NO SOURCE for this QUOTE. Yes, "People Familiar With The Area's Economy". That means COSTA. That is COSTA editorializing PLAIN & SIMPLE.

Then we have the LEGITIMIZING that our Frog-town is actually a prince, where COSTA says that we have PROMINENT NEW ARRIVALS. PROMINENT.

Type "define:prominent" in the GoogleZzzz.
  • outstanding: having a quality that thrusts itself into attention
  • big: conspicuous in position or importance; "a big figure in the movement"; "big man on campus"; "he's very large in financial circles"; "a prominent citizen"
Sad little Costa. The ugly girl with braces always goes to prom with Judd Hirsch in that fuckers mind.

Then he just rolls out His Bitches for the obligatory statements on the "Bend Lifestyle":

“Just because we’re going through the bottoming of the cycle here and everywhere doesn’t mean the reason why people want to move here has changed.” Nyberg said

Bend will continue to be a desirable place to live and, as a result, businesses will want to capitalize on the region’s growth.


The downturn creates opportunities for those companies that can expand.

...companies didn’t close their Bend stores because Bend was a bad market but because the companies filed for bankruptcy due to national economic conditions, Powderly said.

That speaks to the area’s underlying economic attractiveness, Powderly said, adding that commercial real estate is picking up, especially for small businesses.

...the addition of Kohl’s speaks well to the region’s economic validity in that it is a store for residents, not tourists.

I think the assumption is long-term growth in Central Oregon will be above average compared with other cities across the nation because of the lifestyle here,” Powderly said.


God, this is pathetic. Passing this editorializing off as "news". Read the Bully critically, and you will see that it is AWASH in unsourced & unfounded statements.

It's always "Sources familiar with......". Never a name. That's because the name is COSTA. And if there is a source, it is one of Costa's Pro-RE bitches.

And if that's not bad enough, it is the UNENDING puffery. Stores that come to Bend are "Prominent"!!! They aren't just retailers... they are PROMINENT RETAILERS.

The fact is, they are not prominent. Costa WANTS anyone stupid enough to come here to FEEL IMPORTANT. Why? Because if you actually look at the economics of the region, you would be scared SHITLESS... something GOTTSCHALKS found out the hard way.

Costa GETS THEM HERE... and then doesn't give a fuck if they live or die. Notice they COME HERE because Bend is SPECIAL. But By God when they leave it has NOTHING TO DO WITH THE POOR FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMICS:

...the companies didn’t close their Bend stores because Bend was a bad market but because the companies filed for bankruptcy due to national economic conditions, Powderly said.

Costa say, "I'm a Good Boy, Mommy! I'm Good!"

The fact is that Bend has one of the highest unemployment rates for any MSA in the country. It has the fastest rising UE rate anywhere.

The boom turned the frog into a prince. For awhile. But the frog is back. Bend is a terrible, TERRIBLE place to do business.

It's horribly over-restauranted and over-retailed. It is a Me-Too business landscape where every successful business plan is subject to almost instant oversaturation.

Which brings me back to the main thrust of this blog now in the post-boom meltdown: Keep your powder dry. This thing isn't over, not by a long shot. Catch enough knives and you'll bleed to death, ask Jay Audia. The current "recovery" is nothing but a short term bump.
Costa, I need some good puffery...
hbm, please give my nipples a LIBERAL TWEAKING! Please!
Hey Dunc, we heard there was a Superman in this store... care if we look under his cape?

184 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Fuck me... the first relatively cool morning in weeks... already going away.

It's already muggy in my office. Yuk.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A good piece:

The Most Interesting Housing Event Since Prices Began to Decline in 2006

The Real Culprit: Government Manipulation

It is within the Federal Government’s power to distort economic activity through direct intervention in markets. In fact, this is how The Housing Bubble was created.

The Government can:

* Increase car sales by paying people $4,500 to buy autos through a “Cash for Clunkers Program”
* Squash deflation by printing money as was recently accomplished by the Federal Reserve
* Manipulate GDP and unemployment through deficit-financed Stimulus Spending and $2 trillion annual budget deficits

But these manipulations not free, and while the short-term, visible outcomes may be perceived as beneficial, the costs and inevitable results of the programs must be accounted.

The benefits of deficit spending are temporary, while debt remains, must be serviced and repaid. Massive increases in the money supply may stimulate the economy, but create the dilemma of a choice between having to strangle the recovery or enduring hyper-inflation. Furthermore, Government-created economic distortions are unsustainable.


There's much more to it than this...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Manipulating Mortgage Rates

In November of 2008 the Federal Reserve began overtly manipulating mortgage rates through open-market purchases of mortgage securities. The Fed spent $800 billion to lower fixed interest rates to the historic low of 4.8% in May of this year.

The lowest mortgage rates in U.S. history contributed to an increase in home purchases. The problem with this “solution” is that it cost $800 billion and is not sustainable. In fact, interest rates have already risen back to December 2008 levels approximating 5.5%. This particular Government housing distortion has already run its course but was operating at maximum effect in May.


Funny, but I actually read this piece after writing my post.

Click the link above, it's pretty good. Bascially explains that our current "boomlet" is 100% unsustainable. Government-manipulated economies typically end up like Zimbabwe.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

...or Post WWII Nazi Germany...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The one unavoidable fact that stands out is that the Reichsbank ( with the approval of the government) was printing up money as if it were toilet paper.

At the beginning of WWI the Reichsbank suspended redeeming paper notes with gold. During the war the state urged it's citizens to be patriotic and redeem their gold coin hoards for paper marks to help the cash strapped government. At the beginning of WWI the 20 mark coin pictured below was equal to about US $4.76. But after the war, no one had gold, only paper marks - and the presses kept rolling. The German mark in relation to the U.S. dollar went from 17,972 to the dollar in January, 1923 to an incredible 4.2 billion paper marks on November 20th, 1923, when the Reichsbank released it's highest official exchange rate. ( For the uninitiated; the standard for the time is the term "billion"= 1 million millions, the term "trillion"= 1 million billions, so, 4,200,000,000,000 mark = $1 )

On October 25, 1923 in the daily papers, the Reichsbank noted that it had that day printed 120,000 trillion marks ( 120,000,000,000,000,000,000,000).
( With an apology and promise to outdo themselves the next day )

All in all, the Reichsbank issued about 10,000,000,000 individual notes during the 1923 Hyperinflation period.

The production cost for all the notes was 32,776,899,763,734,490,417 marks and 5 pfennig as listed in the Reichsbank's balance sheet in the annual report for 1923.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Have no illusions, this is where we are headed, but we have not lost a war against a foreign nation... we have lost a war against debt.

Unfortunately instead of stopping and extinguishing the flames... we are fighting fire with fire.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Foreclosures: How bad is your city?

Foreclosures are easing in some of the worst hit metro areas, but watch out for the next wave of filings to start crashing in unexpected cities.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sun Belt cities dominated the list of metro areas with the biggest foreclosure problems during the first six months of 2009.

Cities in just four states -- California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada -- captured 29 of the top 30 places with the highest foreclosure rates, according to a report issued by RealtyTrac on Thursday. Greeley, Colo., was the only outsider, coming in at 29th.

The good news is that some of the worst hit spots, such as the Central Valley cities in California, showed some improvement, according to James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

"There are some significant differences beginning to show up in the data," he said. "Some of the markets that had the highest saturation of foreclosures over the past few years have seen declining rates."

But we could also be in a lull before the third wave of foreclosures hits, according to Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's spokesman. The first wave was triggered by the subprime mortgage meltdown. The second wave was caused by layoffs and other economic fallout from the subprime meltdown. "The third wave," said Sharga, "will be the fallout from the option-ARM resets over the next several months."

hbm said...

"Bend will continue to be a desirable place to live and, as a result, businesses will want to capitalize on the region’s growth."

God, they NEVER give it up, do they? Still peddling the same bullshit-flavored Popsicles they were selling four summers ago.

I have yet to see anyone identify ONE bona fide reason why Bend is such a "desirable place to live," other than the celebrated "outdoor lifestyle" (which relatively few have the time/ability/inclination/money to intensively indulge in).

Cultural amenities? Zilch. Climate? El sucko. "Small town charm"? Yeah, 25 years ago. K-12 schools? Mediocre? Higher education? Less than mediocre. Jobs and economic opportunity? Nil.

But hey, we're gonna get ourselves a OLIVE GARDEN! Yippee! We made the BIG TIME now!

Prediction: Olive Garden will be a huge success. Reason: Large quantities of cheap bland food combined with advertising designed to make the yokels think they're having an exotic gourmet dining experience. That formula never fails in places like Bend.

Gosh, this town is gettin so durn sophisticated I can't hardly recognize it no more. Nieman Marcus and Saks will be arriving next month, I guess.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Thursday, July 30, 2009, 11:42am PDT

Foreclosures spike in Oregon

Foreclosure activity rose significantly in Oregon cities in the first half of 2009, a trend that indicates new foreclosure activity may be more directly related to unemployment than fallout associated with subprime and adjustable rate loans.

RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based firm that tracks foreclosure activity, released city-level foreclosure data Thursday, a week after it reported first-half figures showing Oregon ranks No. 11 in the nation for foreclosures despite having the country’s third-highest unemployment rate.

The state recorded 19,053 foreclosure-related actions in the first half of the year, or one for every 84 homes.

Nationally, RealtyTrac reported 1.9 million foreclosure actions against 1.5 million properties, 5 percent more than the same period in 2008.

The Portland area ranked 60th on a list of the top 203 metropolitan areas for foreclosures, with 11,647 foreclosure actions affecting one in every 65 homes in the area. Salem ranked No. 64 with 1,724 actions, affecting one in every 69 households. The Springfield/Eugene metro area ranked No. 90, with 1,188 actions involving one in every 125 households.

Bend and Medford/Ashland, two of Oregon’s hardest hit residential real estate markets, were not ranked.

Las Vegas led the nation with foreclsoure affecting 58,691 homes in the first half of the year, or one in every 13 residential properties.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend, and Oregon in general, is essentially 12-18 months behind the national curve of things economically.

And high-beta to boot.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where is Young Marge recently?

Any wrap-up on July stats Margie?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Recession Slows 'Californization' of the West
By Ted Landphair
Washington, D.C.
27 July 2009

In the 1980s and '90s in thriving western, techno-savvy cities like Seattle, Washington; and Denver, Colorado, you'd see signs all over town. Hand-made, most of them, but a few printed ones and even a billboard or two.

The signs read: "Californians, Go Home." That's because people who sold their homes in booming California were getting three or four or times what they had paid for them. By the hundreds of thousands, newly rich Californians nearing retirement or just wanting less-crowded places with cleaner air flocked elsewhere, bidding up house prices, clogging roads and opening trendy California-style wine bars and yoga studios in distant western towns. California became a distinctly dirty word in many surrounding states.

But now some California transplants are seeing how the not-so-fortunate live. In neighboring Oregon, once flooded with Californians, for instance, unemployment tops 12 percent - second in the nation.

Because California money had driven prices sky high in places like the timber town of Bend, Oregon, ex-Californians are being blamed for the recent housing crash there as well.

"Some of them came up here without a job, and now we can't absorb them and they're competing for my job," an Oregon economist told the New York Times.

The paper also talked with the publisher of Bend Living, a slick magazine that just folded. Its former editor says, "Bend Living was about Bend's emergence into 24-7, go-go, irresponsible construction and people living beyond their means."

Many of its readers lived in a fancy new neighborhood that locals called "Little California." Its streets are now filled with home foreclosure signs.

A pic caption:

Chi-chi restaurants serving dishes like this dab of chocolate truffle cake with cinnamon ice cream opened in western towns used to steak-and-potato joints once Californians moved in

tim said...

"Some of them came up here without a job, and now we can't absorb them and they're competing for my job," an Oregon economist told the New York Times.

Yeah, what ex-Californian doesn't want to become an economist?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Further info on the upper & lower bounds of the least squares of the DJIA:

-1.5 STD: 5,449.73
+1.5 STD: 17,857.87

Fair Value: 9,865

We are at 9,172.

So in log terms (which is all that matters) we are 7% below fair value. I think it's a good sale at 9,500 - 10K. I think we'll continue to plumb the bottom of that -1.5 STD's area, around 5,450 today... but that value increases a tiny amount everyday (about .024174%/day, or 1.3 points).

Buy's at or below -1.5 STD have always been HISTORIC BUY POINTS. They have also been AWASH IN BAD NEWS.

Prepare to be literally shitting your pants when we go down to -1.5STD...

tim said...

I'm so disappointed that slick 4-color "Bend Living" just folded instead of morphing into a communist mimeographed broadsheet called "Bend Dying." That's weak!

tim said...

That was an awesome thunderstorm, by the way. Nearly Florida-like in quality and excitement.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That was an awesome thunderstorm, by the way....

My kids love that. Little lightning-rods, running around in the street...

hbm said...

"That was an awesome thunderstorm, by the way."

I'd score it a 6.5 on a scale of 10. Nothing compared to the good old toad-stranglers we used to have in Jersey.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Uh oh! Dunc is having a Bad Reaction To The Kool-Aid!!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Nothing compared to the good old toad-stranglers we used to have in Jersey.

In Missouri & Kansas, they were called Trailer Park Relocation Initiatives.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow! Go have a looksy at the Duncsters blog today! Woof! He's pissed!

I thought I was a Negative Nelly!! That boyz on a rant!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In Missouri & Kansas, they were called Trailer Park Relocation Initiatives.

Tornadoes in Kansas actually serve the same purpose that overly optimistic developers serve in Bend: Get Rid Of The Mother Fucking Poor.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Prediction: In 3-6 months, Cash For Klunkers will produce a used car market awash in inventory.

Craigslist still shows people have food in their belly... they want quite a bit for their pieces of shit.

I'll buy next Feb when they're hungry... or the Feb after that when they're dead.

Duncan McGeary said...

Hmmm. I must read angrier than I feel.

It's an unpopular opinion, so I feel like I have to work my way through all the issues to explain myself, and a little sarcasm creep in....

Duncan McGeary said...

What pisses me off is adding a new event and expanding the old events....
They'll never stop.

Anonymous said...

Ala. county prepares for government shutdown


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Aug 1, 1:28 AM (ET)

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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) - As a government shutdown loomed, residents of Alabama's most populous county lined up Friday to renew their car registrations and settle their tax bills.

By Monday, at least a quarter of the county's 3,600 employees will be on unpaid leave and many county offices will be closed or cutting back hours.

The county, with 640,000 residents, has been on the brink of filing the nation's largest municipal bankruptcy for the past year due to a sewer bond fiasco that remains unresolved. Then things got worse: A judge ruled the county's occupational tax is illegal and courts refused to let the county spend the revenue from it while officials appeal.

Long lines formed at the Jefferson County courthouse and satellite offices Friday. Some anticipated the long waits and brought lawn chairs.

"This is disgraceful and it's only going to get worse," said retired attorney Robert Eubank, who got in line at 7:30 a.m. and waited more than two hours to renew a car tag.

At least 900 county workers will be furloughed beginning Monday, a number that could grow if the situation isn;t resolved.

The news isn't all bad: Two of the county's largest agencies - the sheriff's office and Cooper Green Mercy Hospital, each with more than 700 employees - will be spared. A judge blocked cuts to the sheriff's staff, and the nonprofit hospital has a separate source of funding.

But satellite courthouses, where residents can buy tags and licenses and pay taxes without having to go to the downtown site, are closing, and offices at the main courthouse downtown are trimming hours. A note taped on the door of the county tax collector's office said it was reducing hours and not opening until 10 a.m.

About 60 county workers and supporters staged a protest Thursday on the steps of the downtown courthouse, and one county employee was arrested for allegedly sending e-mails threatened to bomb the building.

Jefferson County legislators, who could not agree on a new tax during the regular session earlier this year, met Tuesday to try to reach a consensus. The old tax provided some $75 million annually, about one-third of the county's budget. A judge, however, ruled that the tax was repealed by a law passed in 1999.

Gov. Bob Riley, who refused to issue an emergency declaration sought by County Commission President Bettye Fine Collins, has promised to call a special session in August if the county's legislators can agree on a bill.

The budget crisis struck while county officials were wrestling with the prospect of filing what would be the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history over some $3.9 billion in sewer bonds it can no longer afford to repay.

Lenders have granted extensions as payments come due and a federal court is reviewing sewer system operations. But just like with the tax problems, commissioners can't agree on a course of action.

Collins was attending a Republican National Committee meeting in San Diego and won't be back until next week, when two of her three aides are going on unpaid leave.

"It will just be me after today," said Donna Deloach, her assistant.

Anonymous said...

Prediction: In 3-6 months, Cash For Klunkers will produce a used car market awash in inventory.

How do you figure? The cars have to be destroyed, and they start with the engine, which is the most valuable part.

hbm said...

"Craigslist still shows people have food in their belly... they want quite a bit for their pieces of shit."

I listed a 1966 vintage Gibson mandolin on craigslist (I have seen the same model offered at over $1,400 retail) and got not a single response. OTOH I put it on eBay and the bidding is now up over $600.

There are people out there who have money to spend and will spend it. You just have to find them.

Craigslist shoppers are cheap. They think they're going to pick up a $1,400 instrument for $14.99.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Craigslist shoppers are cheap. They think they're going to pick up a $1,400 instrument for $14.99.

I'll give you $2.50.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Prediction: In 3-6 months, Cash For Klunkers will produce a used car market awash in inventory.

How do you figure? The cars have to be destroyed, and they start with the engine, which is the most valuable part.


Cask for KKKlunkers is a market-distortion driven plan.

Remember how the RE Bubble got going? Yeah, it was made a GOVERNMENT FUCKING MANDATE to make HOME OWNERSHIP EASIER, especially for the poor.

Sounds great, right? Fucking liberals get their God Complex, Repugs Get Their Money, everyone wins.

Till now. Too many fucking homes, cuz their were incentives to BUILT THEM BEYOND NATURAL DEMAND.

Same with cars. I'll bet my fat, white, cottage cheese ass MANY of the people buying these new "fuel efficient beasts" CANNOT AFFORD THEM.

Misdirected government subsidies. Distorts market forces. This thing will end the way the housing bubble did, albeit far, FAR smaller in scale: A GLUT WITH NO BUYERS, MASS DEFAULTS.

Anonymous said...

This does a good job explaining how the government can manipulate people into thinking we have green shoots instead of brown roots.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1282-GDP-And-Debt-In-Video-Attached-Images.html

Anonymous said...

"I listed a 1966 vintage Gibson mandolin on craigslist (I have seen the same model offered at over $1,400 retail) and got not a single response. OTOH I put it on eBay and the bidding is now up over $600."

but isn't craigslist limited to the immediate area and ebay limited to the entire planet?

Marge said...

Well here is the latest and greatest of RE stats. Sorry that I don't go into alot of detail. But I really don't give a shit. All I know is that it is still in the shitter. No green shoots here yet. Just slowing crawling to the bottom now.
Here goes..
July RE sales for SFR only: 134 sold @ $218,500 median.Compared to A year ago with 106 sold @ $283k median. The pendings are a median of $214,500 and contingent are $199k.
Watching the new lighting to south we are in for another good one.
Anything else?
We are still gliding down. Get your Beans, Butter and Bullets:)

Bewert said...

Butter, that Costa BS is his finest work yet. He's really digging for experts that he can quote:

"Bill Watkins, an economist who follows Central Oregon’s economy in his role as executive director of the Central Oregon Economic Forecast Project, which is sponsored by local businesses and produced by the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks, Calif., said the addition of Kohl’s speaks well to the region’s economic validity in that it is a store for residents, not tourists.

But to the larger point, new stores bode well for the economy and people’s confidence.

“It really is a good thing to have stores open up,” Watkins said. “One of the benefits is it gives the town an emotional boost, and that’s worthwhile.”


Wiki: "California Lutheran University (CLU also known as Cal Lutheran) is a university of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America..."

####

That is really rich on so many levels.

Guess I better go check out Dunc.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University

That IS ridiculous! Good one Costa!

hbm said...

"I'll give you $2.50."

That wouldn't buy you a pick.

hbm said...

Okay, now THAT was a real Jersey-caliber thunderstorm last night. I scored it a 9 out of 10.

Did they go through with the concert at the Schwab? Damn, that could be dangerous -- thousands of people sitting out in a big open field during a horrendous thunderstorm. One lightning strike and you could have 50 people dead.

hbm said...

Kohl's is a crappy discount retailer. The Bull trying to boom the coming of Kohl's into a major business story reminds me of when Shopko opened (late '80s?) and the local media covered it like the Second Coming. We're back into that mode, it seems.

Anonymous said...

Actually, of the discounters, Kohl's is the best. It's nothing like ShopKo, which has _always_ been a piece of shit, and everyone always knew it was. If the media covered ShopKo at all, they were delusional.

Kohl's carries major brands. It's better than Target.

hbm said...

"Kohl's carries major brands. It's better than Target."

I've heard they're about the same. This from my wife, who is the shopping authority in the house.

Anonymous said...

We'll agree that ShopKo is crap. Every ShopKo I've ever been in is like a giant headache machine.

PopGoesBend said...

Lyle Lovett played until around 8:30 last night - a 2 hr set. He said he was going to come back out if the storm lifted, but by 9 it was obvious it wasn't going to and they packed it up. 85% of the audience had left already.

I've been in a Kohl's and have the opinion that it's not much better than any of the others, it's not needed, and I'll probably not step foot in it more than once a year - if that. Good luck.

Anonymous said...

hbm said...
"Kohl's is a crappy discount retailer. The Bull trying to boom the coming of Kohl's into a major business story reminds me of when Shopko opened (late '80s?) and the local media covered it like the Second Coming. We're back into that mode, it seems."

Seems to me, in this economy, the opening of just about anything bigger than some stupid restaurant is a big deal. People need work, albeit shitty work. HBM, you're the most negative, pessimistic fuck, I've ever seen (or read). It must be a real joy being married to you.

Anonymous said...

>>>>"Bend will continue to be a desirable place to live and, as a result, businesses will want to capitalize on the region’s growth."

God, they NEVER give it up, do they? Still peddling the same bullshit-flavored Popsicles they were selling four summers ago.

I have yet to see anyone identify ONE bona fide reason why Bend is such a "desirable place to live," other than the celebrated "outdoor lifestyle" (which relatively few have the time/ability/inclination/money to intensively indulge in).

Cultural amenities? Zilch. Climate? El sucko. "Small town charm"? Yeah, 25 years ago. K-12 schools? Mediocre? Higher education? Less than mediocre. Jobs and economic opportunity? Nil.<<<<<<



Bend is a desirable place.

Not sure why the non-Oregonian crowd is so resistant to accept this fact.

Central Oregon has been the destination of choice for Oregonians (and many Washingtonians) for decades.

If you don't think Bend has an attractive climate, that may be the source of your misunderstanding.

Anonymous said...

>>HBM, you're the most negative, pessimistic fuck, I've ever seen (or read). It must be a real joy being married to you.

Hey, awesome! Welcome to the blog Mrs. HBM! Can't wait to hear your anecdotes about your husband!

Anonymous said...

>>Bend is a desirable place.

Meh. Every place I've ever lived has peddled a similar story. Every town is special.

Anonymous said...

Prett sure Bend is no longer hip enough to get Dengue Fever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1oFAD-uu5M

hbm said...

"Bend is a desirable place. Not sure why the non-Oregonian crowd is so resistant to accept this fact."

Maybe because they've had some experience living in places outside of Oregon.

"Central Oregon has been the destination of choice for Oregonians (and many Washingtonians) for decades."

Thanks for making my point. I guess if you live in a place where it rains eight months out of the year, Central Oregon seems really swell.

"Meh. Every place I've ever lived has peddled a similar story. Every town is special."

Exactly. But Bend is especially obnoxious in the smug way it constantly touts its alleged specialness -- going on and on about the glorious unique wonderfulness of its fucking precious "lifestyle." I just get totally sick of hearing about it. Feh!

hbm said...

"HBM, you're the most negative, pessimistic fuck, I've ever seen (or read). It must be a real joy being married to you."

Actually I'm a really lovable little fucker. Sharon and I will celebrate our 40th anniversary at the end of this month, thank you very much. I think one of the reasons the marriage has lasted is we're honest with each other, don't sugar-coat things, don't pretend everything is just wonderful all the time. That doesn't mean throwing the kitchen knives at each other, it just means expressing opinions and feelings candidly and truthfully. Having to play-act for your spouse all the time is a real emotional drain.

hbm said...

"Seems to me, in this economy, the opening of just about anything bigger than some stupid restaurant is a big deal."

Right. That's why the local media played up the opening of Shopko so much. The local economy was in the crapper then too.

And of course you know damn well The Bulletin is angling for Kohl's advertising (not that there's anything wrong with that).

It got so bad in the late '80s the paper would do a news story every time somebody built a new house. ONE HOUSE. We ain't that bad yet but we could be on our way.

Anonymous said...

Seattle used to be disgusting with self-love. That wore off, thank god. All it took was Boeing's headquarters going to Chicago, Microsoft having a stuck stock price for ten years, and Starbucks becoming a target for derision rather than a cultural touchstone.

hbm said...

"Every ShopKo I've ever been in is like a giant headache machine."

Still not as bad as Wal-Mart. The local Wal-Mart was the only store I've ever been in that seemed dirty the day it opened.

Anonymous said...

We have the nastiest WalMart I've ever sen. The Eugene, Portland, and Redmond ones are all better. It must be Bend's fault.

Anonymous said...

Check out the Oregonian article on Bend.

The love us, they really love us!

==========

http://www.oregonlive.com/cycling/index.ssf/2009/08/bend_cycling_attracts_top_ride.html

Anonymous said...

Opps...

here is the rest of the url:
bend_cycling_attracts_top_ride.html

====

And some choice quotes:

"And there's more to come. USA Cycling will bring its cyclocross national championships in December. And in 2010, all three events -- the Cascade Cycling Classic, road nationals and cyclocross nationals -- will return to the area's beautiful landscape that offers challenging but safe courses for competitors at every level.

"We're already looking forward to it," said Tom Vinson, USA Cycling's national event manager. "I wouldn't be surprised if we see more participants next year because word of mouth is so incredibly powerful and we have a lot of happy campers here."
=========

"City hops on board
Much of the success can be attributed to Chad Sperry, who directed both events. Sperry, who also runs the Mount Hood Cycling Classic and the Tour of Utah, was able to leverage his experience working on larger races to ensure that the national championships lived up to the high expectations.

"There's been a little bit of a learning curve coming in to this year," Sperry said. "But I think events like Cascade helped me get a good understanding of the basic logistics of a race of this caliber and what it takes to pull this off."

In addition to a savvy race director, Vinson said community support was key.

"Every city representative that I've been introduced to here has given me their cell phone number and told me to call them if I have any problems," Vinson said. "That is just unheard of."
====

Anonymous said...

More "They love us, the really, REALLY Love us!"

=====

"Peter Stetina, who defended his U-23 men's time-trial title and will be racing with the Garmin-Slipstream team next year in Europe, was enthusiastic about the venue.

"I love this town. As far as I'm concerned this is one of the best places that a professional cyclist could live," he said. "I've even been trying to convince a few of my buddies to move out here with me. ... You've got good rides, mountains, altitude and great trails, and with guys like Adam Craig, Carl Decker and Chris Horner here, there are definitely guys to ride with.

"I feel like Bend has everything that Boulder (Colo.) has to offer but the people are a little less pretentious, a little cooler -- and it's cheaper."

Mike Olheiser, who won national titles in the men's elite road race and men's elite time trial within 24 hours of each other, put it more succinctly: "What can I say about Bend? It's an amazing town with great courses. It has been an absolute joy to race here."

Anonymous said...

Take this Dunc-ster, and put it in your pipe for a smoke, will ya?
==============

"There was a little bit of concern that we were going to tax the community but they have completely come together both in support and finances and it's just been an amazing experience," Sperry said. "Having two events back to back has been absolutely the best thing given the current economic challenges. You have all these teams coming in on one round-trip plane ticket and all their support staff coming in only one time so they're saving on fuel costs."

Anonymous said...

More Love, Dunc, MORE LOVE:

==========
"In addition to helping hotels and restaurants, the influx of racers kept bicycle shops working at a breakneck pace.

"We've been absolutely slammed," said Beverly Lucas, owner of Bend Bike N Sport. "It's been all hands on deck, for sure."

===================

Maybe we need a National Championship for Comic Geeks, huh Dunc?

Anonymous said...

Last Love:

===========

"After the city was awarded the road and cyclocross championships, Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the city-funded tourism bureau Visit Bend, had projected the two events would generate $3.5 million in revenue for the city each year. Speaking during the event, he said, "The return on investment for these national level events is outstanding. It will be very hard to duplicate this type of (return)."

Organizers expect around 2,000 competitors in Bend for the cyclocross nationals Dec. 10-13, which would provide a huge economic bump."
====

Anonymous said...

Final last love:
=====

"What's happening here in Bend right now is truly amazing," said Sperry. "There's no other community in the U.S. that is hosting three national-level events in a single year."

Dave Towle, who serves as race announcer at some of cycling's biggest events and was in central Oregon for the junior nationals, put it another way: "Bend is really the total package -- it's an ideal community for these kind of events. I actually wish (USA Cycling) would just sign a 10-year deal and come back here for the next decade.

"I'd be really happy with that."
=========

Bewert said...

The racers are catching Bend at its best--when the riding is great. Let them live here year-round and they would be leaving to train like Horner does.

Bend is a great place to visit. You can see it on some of the racers tweets, too.

I was pumped the two times we visited before we moved there, both during good weather. Of course, the first trip in the fall when we camped out the first night and froze our asses off should have been a clue.

Still, you guys got a good economic bump out of the cycling events, with people coming from all over the nation. Getting Masters Champs would give you an even bigger bump, as a lot of them come for the Cascade Classic. And the old guys usually have money to spend.

Kudos to Chad and MBSEF getting the races to Bend.

Duncan McGeary said...

oh....shit....

Quimby said...

A bike race in Bend in December?

Uhhhhhh.....

PopGoesBend said...

>A bike race in Bend in December?

It is a cyclocross race. Cross racing is a fall/winter sport when the weather is miserable. Nationals were in Kansas City the last two years and there was plenty of ice and snow on course.

A writeup from 2007 cross nats:
"Horizontally blowing snow, twenty degrees, wind, wind chill, followed by periods of freezing rain, sleet, followed by accumulating snow, followed by large fluffly classic flakes of gently falling snow, the weather had it all, but it couldn't hold a candle to the crazy, "On like Donkey Kong" action packed racing at the Cross Nationals today. The Kansas City Cyclocross National Championships were actually cut a break by mother nature, hard as that is to believe, the major snow, 6-8 inches fell a few scant miles to the South and East of the city and beautiful, Wyandotte County Park. "

So, yeah. Cross racing in Bend in December, and it will be sweet.

Anonymous said...

That sounds ridiculous. No wonder I never heard of it before. I'm sure it will happen and I won't even notice it.

Bewert said...

Re: That sounds ridiculous. No wonder I never heard of it before. I'm sure it will happen and I won't even notice it.

####

It is, but it is a great scene and good fun. Short, intense, and ridiculous at times.

Dunc, don't worry, all the cross races are going to be over by the Old Mill.

Actually, bike racers include a lot of geeks (reguired: obsessive intentsity), many of which would be very intrigued by your shop. If they knew it was there and could find it.

hbm said...

"Horizontally blowing snow, twenty degrees, wind, wind chill, followed by periods of freezing rain, sleet, followed by accumulating snow, followed by large fluffly classic flakes of gently falling snow"

Hmmm. Sounds like Bend in May.

hbm said...

"I love this town. As far as I'm concerned this is one of the best places that a professional cyclist could live," he said.

Yeah, professional cyclists -- they make up a HUGE segment of the population.

Anonymous said...

"Yeah, professional cyclists -- they make up a HUGE segment of the population."

They might be counting the delusional wannabes wearing the clown suits.

Anonymous said...

Bewert said...
"...I was pumped the two times we visited before we moved there, both during good weather."

Oh, and did I mention that I was too fucking stupid to ask anyone, anyone at all, what the weather was like in Central Oregon the rest of the year?

Anonymous said...

"Oh, and did I mention that I was too fucking stupid to ask anyone, anyone at all, what the weather was like in Central Oregon the rest of the year?"
====

Yeah, so I moved to Utah.

But I forgot to ask anyone, if they had an over dominate religion in Utah.

What is this Mormon thingy, anyway? Do they go to church and stuff? Opps, I did it again...

Anonymous said...

It's not "opps." It's "oops."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAS4ltt7DzI

Bewert said...

Re: Oh, and did I mention that I was too fucking stupid to ask anyone, anyone at all, what the weather was like in Central Oregon the rest of the year?

####

Yeah, I asked the mortgage broker who owned the house we were going to rent. He was a fountain of info about the local RE market as well.

####

Re: But I forgot to ask anyone if they had an over dominate religion in Utah.

####

Yeah, since I lived here for 20 years before moving to Bend I didn't know a fucking thing about the Mormons. Or the FLDS polygamists who had a huge compound at the mouth of Little Cottonwood Canyon, about six blocks from where I type this.

BTW how is that RE license feeding your family these days?

Bewert said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqi6hjXoVPU

Anonymous said...

"Re: But I forgot to ask anyone if they had an over dominate religion in Utah."

How could any adult not know Utah was dominated by Mormons? Shithead.

And it's "dominant."

Anonymous said...


Yeah, I asked the mortgage broker who owned the house we were going to rent. He was a fountain of info about the local RE market as well.


Was it Mark Anderson?...that guy is a douche.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Mortgage Broker Douchebags....anyone know Oliver Stretz?

That guy stole $2500 that I donated to a local non-profit.

Anonymous said...

What's a U-23?
Bend has a cousin when it comes to attitude: Santa Cruz, CA.

Anonymous said...

Under 23

Bewert said...

Kunstler take no prisoners: http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/08/hunky-dory.html

Anonymous said...

Was it Mark Anderson?...that guy is a douche.

Correction, the wife says his name was Mike, not Mark. She would know, she took the brunt of his crazed hissy fit when we wouldn't go along with his fraud scheme on the sale of our house. The guy wanted us to state the house sold for 100K more than the sale price and then he wanted us to give the 100K back to the buyer so he could buy a boat and a truck.

PopGoesBend said...

Overheard a loan officer at a local bank yesterday saying he hadn't given out a construction loan since last September - they are just too risky. He mentioned that the problem they are having with the loans they gave out last summer is that the clients need to find new financing at closing and the homes are not appraising for what they need to. People can't close because they can't get a loan. I wonder what will happen to these houses. I have a friend who finished his house in Portland in Feb and he had to put another $100k or so in before he could get a loan. If the person building it doesn't have access to extra cash will they be foreclosing before they even move in?

Jelement said...

Bend has a cousin when it comes to attitude: Santa Cruz, CA.

As a Santa Cruz native I'm curious what comparisons you would make between the two. Politics in Santa Cruz aren't driven by greed so much as ultra-liberal ideas about how things should be, with no concern for how to fund every handout they feel entitled to.

It seems that Bend was all about handouts to developers while Santa Cruz is so anti-growth you have to drive to San Jose to buy anything.

Anonymous said...

"...As a Santa Cruz native..."

As a Santa Cruz native, why the fuck don't you do me a personal, and just move back?

Anonymous said...

I always thought Santa Cruz was more like Eugene, not Bend.

Jelement said...

>As a Santa Cruz native, why the fuck don't you do me a personal, and just move back?

Because I was born somewhere I have to make myself feel like I belong there? I left because I don't like Santa Cruz. The neighborhood I grew up in doesn't have any white people left these days, stabbings were common enough for there to be a website devoted to counting the days since the last stabbing in town, and housing prices are ridiculous. Not to mention the university full of hippies that protest everything under the sun...and that lack of development I mentioned earlier.

But hey...I came out of the womb there 30 years ago, so I should fucking love the place and never want to leave, right?

Susie said...

"Overhead a loan officer at a local bank yesterday saying he hadn't given out a construction loan since last September-they are just too risky... If the person building it doesn't have access to extra cash will they be foreclosing before they even move in". (PopGoesBend)

Curious what local bank was this?

hbm said...

"I left because I don't like Santa Cruz. The neighborhood I grew up in doesn't have any white people left these days, stabbings were common enough for there to be a website devoted to counting the days since the last stabbing in town, and housing prices are ridiculous. Not to mention the university full of hippies"

So in spite of the horribleness of Santa Cruz, which you make sound like Detroit West, housing prices remain ridiculous? Something doesn't add up here.

Anonymous said...

Half of mortgages expected to be underwater in two years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090805/bs_nm/us_usa_housing_deutschebank

Marge said...

Was that a fake Susie? I think Susie is a fake to start with or a transexie handle.
Santa Cruz ain't bad place to start from. Seems like one should have left there after the earthquake in the early 90's.

Anonymous said...

HBM Said...
So in spite of the horribleness of Santa Cruz, which you make sound like Detroit West, housing prices remain ridiculous? Something doesn't add up here.

There are some absolute shit hole neighborhoods on the island of Oahu, yet the median home price there is $570K. It's called supply and demand fuck-wad. Only so much ocean view to go around.

Susie said...

"Was that a fake Susie? I think Susie
is a fake to start with or a transexie handle". (Marge)

Jeez, scroll back up, Marge, all I asked PGB is what local bank in Bend it was!

Anonymous said...

Even the dregs of Bend (yeah, dipwad, if you are reading this, then you be a dreg) are now eating each other.

I say move on, and shut down this lousy blog already.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I say move on, and shut down this lousy blog already.

Shouldn't you be out cold-calling for ridiculously overpriced listings?

Oh right, you're living in a BOX on China Hat Road.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Store in the Bully this morning that basically admits that CACB is on a razors edge of insolvency.


Cascade Bancorp: Where does it stand?

Remember, this is Bend and Costa, so it's the absence of cheerleading that you need to look for.

In its quarterly report, the company said it elected to withdraw its $67 million TARP application, made last November...

Asked if the application’s withdrawal is tantamount to an admission the bank is unhealthy, Moss said no.

“I don’t think you can draw a direct line with that conclusion, that unhealthy banks don’t get the money,” Moss said. “What I would say is we reflect our economy, and our bank has been more challenged as our local economy has been more challenged.”

She said the company has a capital-raising plan and is actively seeking additional capital from “private markets,” though she would not elaborate. A stock offering also is under consideration, she said.

Regardless of its source, Cascade Bancorp is seeking more capital.

At the end of the second quarter, the company was designated an “adequately capitalized” institution...

According to the Charlottesville, Va.-based research firm SNL Financial, there are 6,784 “well capitalized” commercial banks in the country, compared with 143 that are “adequately capitalized.”


This is basically an admission that:

1) NO ONE is stupid enough to give CACB more money. Not the gov't, nor Bolger who has lost tens of millions. The only possible lender: "private markets", ie THE MOB

2) CACB is one of the WORST capitalized banks in the country, in fact it is in the LOWEST 2% of banks deemed "adequately capitalized" in the country.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Funny that most of Moss' replaies are just BALD FACED LIES. OF COURSE CACB didn't get TARP money becuase it's TROUBLED. Of course that's the reason.

But NO says DELUDED Moss. And of course she and Costa set up this entire interview, like they are transmitting it to watchers of Sesame Street.

Seriously, Moss/Costa think Bend is made up of retards. If they are thinking of the vast hordes of Cali-Banger transplants, then I guess they are right.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

thats "replies"...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Apparently the InEn Tec Perpetual Motion Garbage-to-Gold black box maker has decided that grifting Bend is like squeezing blood from a rock...

InEnTec Chemical leaving Bend

Ahhhhh yes... and it seems like JUST YESTERDAY that Costa SWORE that these pied-pipers would give us unending jobs with their magical box...

Garbage never smelled so sweet

Two weeks ago, Bend-based InEnTec LLC announced a joint venture with Houston-based Waste Management Inc., a Fortune 500 company with more than $13 billion in revenues.

While a big step for privately held InEnTec, a small waste-to-energy company that relocated to Bend last year from Richland, Wash., it also promises big returns for Central Oregon.

The new joint venture, called S4 Energy Solutions LLC, will be based in Houston but is opening an office in The Old Mill District, adjacent to InEnTec’s office. S4 will eventually employ more than 20 chemical and other engineers, generally earning more than $100,000 a year, according to Jeff Surma, a founder of InEnTec and S4’s first CEO.


Green and on top

Also in Bend is InEnTec LLC, a waste-to-energy company that recently announced a joint venture with Houston-based Waste Management, a Fortune 500 company with more than $13 billion in revenues. Their venture, S4 Energy Solutions LLC, will be based in Houston, but its Bend-based CEO, Jeff Surma, anticipates hiring up to 20 engineers to staff its Bend office in the next few years.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

All this simply ignores the fact that there aren't 20 CHEMICAL ENGINEERS IN BEND. There aren't 2.

Why? No chemical engineer could actually survive here. It is the natural business ecosystem of Central Oregon to make well-paying knowledge-based jobs UNTENABLE.

Where would you work? Suterra? Fuck no, all that shit is done as far from HILL-MOTHERFUCKING-BILLIES as possible.

hbm said...

"I say move on"

Excellent suggestion! But where do I move on to, and how the hell do I get out of this shithole?

Bewert said...

A couple of highlights from your CC meeting last night:

Council unanimously approved a resolution authorizing the City Manager to Sign a Personal Services Agreement with Economic Development for Central Oregon

At the 2009 Council Goal setting retreat, the Council asked staff to explore a partnership with EDCO that would allow EDCO to provide specific economic development services to the City of Bend. The services include an economic development program that will be project or client based to provide solutions for individual clients relating to workforce, business finance, marketing, access to incentive programs, real estate development, property entitlement, and other factors impacting businesses. The City will pay a maximum of $165,000 to EDCO for these services over a two year period.

Council approved a Resolution amending resolution No. 2713 to extend the System Development Charges Deferral program

Councilor Clinton was opposed to the extension. All other Councilors supported the extension. Councilor Greene asked that a permanent extension be discussed when this extension expires.

The economic downturn in Central Oregon has continued to severely impact the development community. Last year, the Council approved Resolution 2713 that established a program allowing builders and developers to defer system development charges (SDCs) in order to provide some economic stimulus. That program expires on August 30, 2009. Council approved an extension of this program through adoption of the proposed resolution.

####

The SDC deferral program has been extended to August 31, 2010. For now...

LavaBear said...

>>> But where do I move on to, and how the hell do I get out of this shithole?

Even you HBM can do it....

Bewert said...

Another BULL behind-the-firewall-story: Collection of property taxes falls sharply

What a surprise!

Anonymous said...

'thats "replies"...'

Butter, don't bother correcting one word when there are a dozen typos in the posts. :-)

hbm said...

Bear: Yeah, that's the ticket -- I put all my belongings in a backpack and hit the road. Makes a lot of sense, especially at my age.

LavaBear said...

>>>Makes a lot of sense, especially at my age.

Shawshank Redemption:

Red: "Get busy living, or get busy dying."

Bewert said...

Red: "Get busy living, or get busy dying."

####

Yep. Your CC is working on the latter.

hbm said...

Hola, muchachos y muchachas! Speaking of living and dying, was everybody out there enjoying our healthy outdoor lifestyle in the glorious Bend summer weather today?

I have to laugh every time I hear about our "healthy outdoor lifestyle." Yes, there are lots of outdoor activities available -- but the weather's too shitty to enjoy them about 75% of the time. When I lived in the Bay Area I had a much more healthy and active outdoor lifestyle than I've ever had here, simply because the climate was so much better. I played tennis three days a week almost all year, ran almost every day, bicycled almost all year and enjoyed our pool about seven months out of the year. When I moved to Bend I was in the best shape of my life. It's been all downhill from there. I just don't enjoy exercising outdoors in crappy weather, and working out on indoor machines is even worse. (Did you know the treadmill was a punishment given to convicts in Victorian England?)

All the local media attention is focused on the uber-jocks who run triathlons and ultra-marathons and compete in the Olympics, but they are not the typical Bend denizens. The typical Bend denizen probably is a couch potato who spends his spare time playing video games and watching DVDs. The closest he gets to a "healthy outdoor lifestyle" is when he hauls his bass boat up to Crane and spends the day chugging Coors Lite.

hbm said...

"Get busy living, or get busy dying."

I love these profound philosophical quotes from movies, don't you?

I guess I'll get busy dying. Tried living and it wasn't what it was cracked up to be.

Anonymous said...

I'm dying to get busy.

Anonymous said...

HBM, you are the sorriest piece of dung I have run across in a long time, get a life loser.

hbm said...

Seem to recollect that quote from Shawshank Redemption was "borrowed" from a Dylan line -- something about "he who is not busy being born is busy dying." Anybody else remember it?

Anonymous said...

spends the day chugging Coors Lite.
****

Coors lite...just shows you don't know shit. It's PBR all the way baby.

hbm said...

"It's PBR all the way baby."

I thought that was the hipster beer, not the redneck beer. And NO hipster would own a bass boat.

Either way, it's really shit. I remember it from Jersey. It was still shit then, but it hadn't become fashionable shit.

Anonymous said...

"Either way, it's really shit. I remember it from Jersey. It was still shit then, but it hadn't become fashionable shit."

====

Hey, dude, clean up your Princeton writing.

Better to say:

"I remember PBR from Jersey. It was shit back 30 yrs ago, and it still is shit now, but it hadn't become fashionable shit."
=============

Now, HBM, isn't that much better?

I remember HBM from the days of the Bulletin. HBM was shit back then, and HBM still is shit now, but HBM hadn't ever became fashionable shit.

Anonymous said...

http://www.breitbart.tv/aarp-reps-cancel-listening-session-after-participants-refuse-to-keep-their-comments-quiet/

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZ8UqstzNlU

Anonymous said...

"All this simply ignores the fact that there aren't 20 CHEMICAL ENGINEERS IN BEND. There aren't 2."

There are roughly 20 fulltime Chem Engineers at Bend Research at any given time.
They are advertising to fill another Chem E position presently...

Formulation and Process Scientist



Employer: Bend Research Inc.


Location: Bend, Oregon 97701 United States

Last Updated: 07/20/2009

Job Type: Employee

Job Status: Full Time

Shift: 1st Shift

Please see Job Details for Apply instructions.




Job Description
Formulation and Process Scientist



Bend Research Inc., a growing, multidisciplinary contract research, development and manufacturing company specializing in improving human and animal health is seeking an:



Experienced Pharmaceutical Scientist with a Pharmaceutics or Chemical Engineering Degree to perform research and development on pharmaceutical-related formulation, process development, and scale-up projects. In addition, technology transfer and associated support of manufacturing in a GMP environment will be required as projects advance.

Anonymous said...

If the person building it doesn't have access to extra cash will they be foreclosing before they even move in?

*

I have never built a house in my life that didn't run over cost from what the contractor had bidded the cost to be, ... oh you want 'tile' in the kitchen, hell the bid didn't even cover the cost of installation, ... to me if I build a home, I always figure to have 10% cash on hand for 'comfort', unless you can get every nail spec'd which is impossible, cuz at the end of the day the builder wants to shop at kmart and not 5th-ave-nyc, ... I would never build unless I was sitting on cash, and lots of it, so what's new, now people who come to bend, can no longer get HELOC? Guess what this means? Only people with REAL MONEY can build in Bend, so fucking what?

Deja-Vu so fucking what?

Hello 1983 the real Bend Oregon is back, enjoy fuckers.

One of my mia-noy ( 2nd wife ) here wants to have a baby in January, she says her astrologist says its her destiny, ... hmmm...

I miss BP so fucking much.

How is SLC? Good to hear HBM defending Bend, nice to see Homer back to old form and actually writing original content for Sunday post, .... three more weeks and I return to BEND, ... three more weeks in MALAY, ...

Anonymous said...

Lonsdale, Bend Research, Suterra has got to be hurting now that OREO has pulled all the BUSH plugs on BIO Micro-Encapsulation for cali spraying, ....

It's amazing you never hear shit about Lonsdale anymore, 20+ years ago senate wannabe and darling of left, now BUSH promoter of sterialization, ... Mein Kampf? Tires and Zyklon-B??? I love Bend

Bush back in the 30's IG-FARBIN was tires and pesticides, zyklon-b was used in USA to fumigate trains that held mexican farm workers destined to USA, ... amazing that same zyklon-b was later used to exterminate jews for BUSH family, ...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We're Number One!

Deschutes only Oregon region to show drop in personal income

Economist attributes decline to housing market collapse

Deschutes County’s per capita personal income fell 0.2 percent from 2007 to 2008, according to an annual report by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released Thursday. Nationally, average per capita income grew 2.2 percent for the 366 metropolitan statistical areas.

Deschutes County was the only Oregon MSA in the report that recorded a decline in per capita personal income in 2008, although other Oregon MSAs saw their growth rates slow from 2007.

Deschutes County’s 2008 per capita personal income was $34,988, compared with a national per capita personal income of $41,455, placing it roughly in the middle of the nation’s MSAs, at No. 162, according to the report.

Bridgeport, Conn., topped the list with a 2008 per capita personal income of $82,266, while McAllen, Texas, ranked last with a per capita personal income of $19,377.

Timothy Duy, a University of Oregon economist who tracks Central Oregon’s economy, attributed Deschutes County’s decline in personal income to the housing market’s collapse.

“I find it completely unsurprising, given that the Bend region had such a disproportionate amount of economic activity in what was revealed to be a housing bubble,” said Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the university.

Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggests the decline in personal income growth resulted from lost salaries and wages, Duy said.

“It looks like it’s largely concentrated where you’d expect,” Duy said of the areas where personal income fell.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates personal income as income people receive from all sources, including net earnings by place of residence, rental income, dividend income and interest income. Per capita income is calculated by dividing an area’s total personal income by the population.

Without taking population into account, total personal income in the county grew by 2.8 percent in 2008 over 2007, to $5.5 billion, less than half the 6 percent growth rate it registered in 2007 over 2006.

That is similar to the national average of 3.3 percent personal income growth, according to a news release from the bureau.

“Personal income grew (in Deschutes County), but the population grew as well,” Duy noted. “I think it’s a disproportionate hit to that region because it was disproportionately based on the housing market.”

Eric Strobel, the Bend manager at Economic Development for Central Oregon, said residents’ incomes from real estate investments, such as rental homes and commercial leases, have taken a hit due to the recession. Deschutes County also has a large number of retirees who get their income from dividends on investments, so the decline in the stock market cut into their earnings, Strobel said.

“I think investments in general, related to income, whether that’s real estate or a business or the stock market, those have all taken a hit,” Strobel said.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'd like to hear more about this...

Couple may be risking contempt charges, judge says
Kevin and Tami Sawyer have refused to reveal financial information

August 7, 2009 4:00 am
Couple may be risking contempt charges, judge says, Kevin and Tami Sawyer

A Bend couple who owe a pair of investors more than $900,000 were told Thursday they could be held...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And Holy Shit is Tami Sawyer worn out! Damn... she ass ugly!

Today's Bully Biz Section

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I didn't know this...

Shoji’s shuts down

August 7, 2009 4:00 am

Shoji’s, a Teppanyaki-style Japanese restaurant, located at 62929 N. U. S. Highway 97 in Bend, has closed. Owner John Cartmill said the restaurant closed last month, largely due to the economy....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I saw a Bully this AM, and found zilch on Sawyer... Maybe not in Biz section.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Without taking population into account, total personal income in the county grew by 2.8 percent in 2008 over 2007, to $5.5 billion, less than half the 6 percent growth rate it registered in 2007 over 2006.

Remember this.

This suggests the population of Deschutes county grew about 3% in 2008 vs 2007.

Because I GUARANTEE Costa will say different... he'll say our growth was MUCH HIGHER.

What's great is we DID have population growth... but FINALLY some dumbass has picked up on the fact that rising population DOES NOT MEAN rising WEALTH.

This fucking place is making LESS because of GROWTH. WE ARE ALL POORER BECAUSE OF GROWTH.

Remember this: As a whole, THIS PLACE IS POORER BECAUSE OF GROWTH. And it will get much, MUCH WORSE in the coming years.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

OK, Zimbabwe has got a SHITLOAD OF MONEY. Motherfucking money is NOT the problem.

They don't have wealth. They don't have any things. Motherfuckers have wheelbarrows full of money.

Same with Bend. NO FUCKING WEALTH. We've had a hyperinflation of HOMES. That shit is our stock-in-trade. And we got tons of it. But we ain't got shit anyone wants. No one wants our shit, the way no one wants Zimbabwe "dollars". Ain't worth shit.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know the percentage of people in Bend who are:

White?
Hispanic?
Asian?
Black?

Anonymous said...

It's amazing you never hear shit about Lonsdale anymore, 20+ years ago senate wannabe and darling of left, now BUSH promoter of sterialization, ... Mein Kampf? Tires and Zyklon-B??? I love Bend

Last I heard he was living in Sisters, and is still just as big an egomaniac prick as always.

Anonymous said...

I didn't even know there was a Shoji's in Bend.

Anonymous said...

You have one month left to leave Bend and enroll your children in an area where they have a future.
If they stay in Bend, get used to them living in a trailer park, dragged down by the poor white trash.

Anonymous said...

You have one month left to leave Bend and enroll your children in an area where they have a future.
If they stay in Bend, get used to them living in a trailer park, dragged down by the poor white trash.

Anonymous said...

Austin, Texas.
Unemployment rate 6%.
Nice home for $125,000.
College town- lots of cute college girls who like to party.
NO state income tax.
Warmer weather than Oregon, and less rain.
One of the fastest growing cities in America.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Austin, Texas.
Unemployment rate 6%.
Nice home for $125,000.
College town- lots of cute college girls who like to party.
NO state income tax.
Warmer weather than Oregon, and less rain.
One of the fastest growing cities in America."


That's all fine and dandy, but the fact remains, you would have to move to fucking Texas...shithole of the U.S. anatomy.

LavaBear said...

>>>If they stay in Bend, get used to them living in a trailer park, dragged down by the poor white trash.

Ummm, that's the way it's always been. It's ok though because by the time they are in high school they can get their meth and booze from their pal's mom in the trailer park. Not that I'd know anything about any of that and damn sure MY kids won't either.

Anonymous said...

From the great mind and vision of hbm:

" have yet to see anyone identify ONE bona fide reason why Bend is such a "desirable place to live," other than the celebrated "outdoor lifestyle" (which relatively few have the time/ability/inclination/money to intensively indulge in).

Cultural amenities? Zilch. Climate? El sucko. "Small town charm"? Yeah, 25 years ago."

Good grief hbm! how miserable are you? Every visitor I've talked to recently would like to move here. If you hate the place so much, please just move away, or better yet, just drop dead. Your drivel is getting pretty old.

Anonymous said...

Every visitor I've talked to recently would like to move here.

Oh come on. It's one thing to visit Bend and it's another thing to put up with it.

Of course they want to move here. Just like all the people who moved here and lost their money. They love it until maybe the third year.

PopGoesBend said...

>to me if I build a home, I always figure to have 10% cash on hand for 'comfort', unless you can get every nail spec'd which is impossible, cuz at the end of the day the builder wants to shop at kmart and not 5th-ave-nyc,

This has nothing to do with overruns, but the market dropping so fast that by the time the house is done it appraises for 25% less than when the construction loan was approved. You don't need an extra 10%. You need that PLUS an extra 20% so you are prepared when the bank tells you you can't have that $320k loan because even though you put $100k into the project you are already underwater on it and they will only loan you $240k.

Jelement said...

Looks like the FDIC is in the neighborhood.

BANK FAIL FRIDAY -- The FDIC says the Community First Bank in Prineville, Oregon has become the 72nd bank failure of the year.

http://www.mycommunityfirst.com/

On Friday, August 7, 2009, Community First Bank, Prineville, OR was closed by the Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities. Subsequently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.

All deposit accounts have been transferred to Home Federal Bank, Nampa, ID. For more information on Home Federal Bank, visit us at www.myhomefed.com.

The FDIC has assembled useful information regarding your relationship with Community First Bank. Besides a checking account, you may have Certificates of Deposit, a business checking account, a Social Security direct deposit, and other relationships with the institution.

Please select the link below to read more about this event:

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/community-prineville.html

Anonymous said...

man, so many people that have to "put up with Bend"

Are you stuck here? You should cut bait and move if it's so bad here.

I hear the grass is greener everywhere so just stick a pin in the map and go.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Looks like the FDIC is in the neighborhood.

Yeah, go here to grab a piece of HISTORY!

PNVL charts will go away pretty soon. Obama Jeesus hates to leave a mess...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A forbidding future for CACB:

Freeman, reached Friday evening, said the bank worked for a year to find new capital, but “market conditions weren’t conducive to getting anything put together.”

“We really do regret the impact this has,” Freeman said.

As of July 5, Community First Bank had total assets of approximately $209 million and total deposits of $182 million, according to the FDIC.


$27 mill positive net worth, and still CENTRAL OREGON DOOMED.

Why?

Liars. Most of the areas big org's are run by financial gristing liars. need more proof?

Cont...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Seizure and lawsuits cloud Epic Air’s future

Bend kit plane manufacturer has laid off most of its workers

The fate of Epic Air, a Bend company that once boasted it would employ 4,000 people to manufacture sleek composite aircraft, appears uncertain after a series of events prompting questions about the company’s future.

A notice posted on the door of the company’s factory at Bend Municipal Airport says the building’s landlord — Delaware-registered ER1 LLC — “has taken possession of the premises” and “claimed a possessory lien on the personal property” inside due to Epic being in default on its lease for more than 20 days.

The building’s seizure has gotten the attention of the Federal Aviation Administration, which is looking into the matter but has not launched an official investigation, according to FAA spokesman Allen Kenitzer.

In addition, ER1 filed suit in Deschutes County Circuit Court on July 31 against the company’s CEO, Rick Schramek, and others. The Bulletin learned of the case late Friday and was unable to find out the contents of the suit.

Attempts to reach Schramek and Epic’s general manager, Dave Hice, were unsuccessful Friday. Messages left for Epic’s attorney, Jeff Eager, were not returned.

ER1’s Bend attorney, Heather Hepburn, would not comment.

The recent developments involving Epic follow a separate lawsuit filed June 5 in U.S. District Court in Portland by Florida-based Blue Sky Avgroup LLC, which is asking the court for emergency receivership of the company. Information about Epic’s employment history and airplane order history are due to be submitted to the court Tuesday.

Rich Lucibella, a Florida man who owns Blue Sky Avgroup, said Friday he is seeking to take ownership of the company along with a number of other Epic customers who have planes at Epic’s facility in various forms of assembly.

Epic mostly manufacturers uncertified kit planes, which it helps its customers assemble. The FAA allows uncertified planes to fly if they are at least 51 percent assembled by the plane’s owner.

“Amongst us, our first efforts are going to be conserve the assets of this company because we believe the (Epic LT) is still a wonderful design, anyone in the general aviation community knows that, and after that, a way we can simultaneously keep this company going in Central Oregon and finish the planes,” Lucibella said.

Epic, which employed roughly 160 workers less than a year ago, laid off most of its employees in January and June, according to the federal suit. All but a handful of the remaining workers were furloughed in July, according to the company.

In the federal suit, the company admitted to cash-flow problems but said it expected to stay in business.

A startup, Epic landed in Bend in 2004 thanks to a number of public incentives, which included state loans and grants totaling $1.3 million, according to an April 2005 story in The Bulletin. The company promised to create 4,000 jobs in exchange for the loans and grants, The Bulletin reported.

The aviation industry has suffered during the recession. Cessna Aircraft Co. cited a decline of orders in its decision announced earlier this year to close its Bend plant and move production to Kansas in order to save money.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Attempts to reach Schramek and Epic’s general manager, Dave Hice, were unsuccessful Friday. Messages left for Epic’s attorney, Jeff Eager, were not returned.

Well I'll be damed, that sounds like BEND CITY COUNCILOR, JEFF EAGER!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A startup, Epic landed in Bend in 2004 thanks to a number of public incentives, which included state loans and grants totaling $1.3 million, according to an April 2005 story in The Bulletin. The company promised to create 4,000 jobs in exchange for the loans and grants, The Bulletin reported.

Uh oh! Sounds like a Bend Country-Fried BOONDOGGLE!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I like how COSTA fucking tries to distance himself from this FRAUD-U-NET pack of bitches by quoting his own paper in the 3rd person.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Epic, which employed roughly 160 workers less than a year ago, laid off most of its employees in January and June, according to the federal suit. All but a handful of the remaining workers were furloughed in July, according to the company.

In the federal suit, the company admitted to cash-flow problems but said it expected to stay in business.


"We believe there are still dipshits to frisk in Bend!"

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend is on track to approve new partnership with EDCO
Economic development organization would become primary recruiter for city

Although a contract between the city and EDCO has yet to be finalized, King said the city would increase its annual contribution to EDCO from $65,000 to $80,000 and EDCO would in return establish a position that would learn the ins and outs of city policy and planning in order to better attract manufacturing and high-tech companies to the city, and report on such efforts directly to the City Council. The contribution would increase to $85,000 in the second year of the two-year agreement, King said.

The position would be modeled after similar EDCO positions in Prineville, Redmond and Madras that feature an on-the-ground economic development officer who is funded by EDCO but works closely with the related city and county governments to recruit and retain businesses.

“I think it’s an important step forward to enhance Bend’s ability to attract family-wage employers at a minimal cost to the city,” said Bend Councilor Jeff Eager. “It will help formalize what has been a long-standing cooperative relationship between the city and EDCO, and in these economic times, it’s critical we use every tool at our disposal to try and create jobs here.”

Deschutes County’s unemployment rate in April was almost 16 percent, highest among the state’s six metropolitan areas.

The city previously had its own economic development director who largely managed several city programs dealing with affordable housing, Juniper Ridge, Bend Municipal Airport, city-owned real estate and downtown parking, but didn’t focus on recruitment and retention, King said.


That last paragraph is basically a list of COUNTRY FRIED BOONDOGGLES that Eager & ALL BEND CITY COUNCILORS are involved in via OLD-BOY-FRAUD-U-NET.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And don't even think that it's not a coincidence that EAGER is Epic's hired dog. That is the ONLY REASON people get on City Council. So Bend's FRAUDSTERS can basically pay-to-play their way out of dumping waste, stealing from city coffers, defrauding the state, amongst other things.

You're witnessing a web of lies in collapse here folks.

Watch CACB... basically a large-scale version of COMMUNAL FRISK BANK (Prineville bancorp). Yeah... there's going to be CONSOLIDATION all right. It'll all consolidate to THE CLOUD.

Poof... gone like a fart in the wind...

Anonymous said...

Bend is less and less like a tragedy and more and more like a comedy. I guess that's something to be thankful for. Maybe I'll stay in this shithole after all! Just for the laughs!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Watch Bend's airport now... mass closures for the little guy: 3456 cafe probably go quick.

Anonymous said...

How priceless is that? The lawyer for the company we gave all that money to to relocate? Yeah, well we couldn't get him on the phone. Except for this story about how the city is going to give EDCO more money to find ways to give other people more money to move here and hire 4000 people.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Retraction from Costa? Nope.

‘A big shot in the arm for the Bend economy’

Kingfisher Airlines Chairman Vijay Mallya’s $200 million investment in Bend’s Epic Aircraft earns him half-ownership of the company.

By Anna Sowa

The Bulletin

The $200 million investment by an India-based airline mogul in Bend’s Epic Aircraft could help the local airplane maker break into the commercial jet market by producing larger planes for larger companies, an Epic spokesman said Thursday.

“It’s extremely likely that the Bend facility will grow substantially and contribute more to the job market in Bend,” said Lyn Freeman, the Epic spokesman who revealed how much Vijay Mallya is investing in Epic. “It will be a big shot in the arm for the Bend economy, but how big a shot it turns out to be ... I don’t know.”

Epic employs 140 people in Bend.

Mallya, a billionaire who owns Kingfisher Airlines in India, refers to himself as the “King of Good Times,” according to his chairman’s message on the Kingfisher Web site. The 51-year-old is known for his lavish parties and flamboyant, jet-setting lifestyle, complete with expensive toys that include a more-than-300-foot yacht, 200 horses, a fleet of rare cars and a personal jet the size of a large commerical airliner.

Epic President and CEO Rick Schrameck announced Wednesday that Mallya, his friend and fellow aviation buff, was investing in the company, but Schrameck did not disclose the investment’s size.

Mallya representatives could not be reached for comment the past two days, but Freeman said Mallya’s office has confirmed the $200 million investment.

Mallya now owns 50 percent of Epic, Freeman said, adding that Mallya “has insisted” that Schrameck remain as company chief.

'Speedier transformation’

Mallya’s role is expected to be that of a financing source and middleman between Epic and other aircraft companies to which Mallya has ties, Freeman said.

“My guess would be that (Mallya) would bring a lot of information that would lead Epic to a speedier transformation into the commercial jet market,” Freeman said. “Vijay will try to help Epic crack that nut because he lives in that world.”

Through his Kingfisher Airlines, Mallya has a long-standing relationship with Airbus, the French aircraft maker that competes globally with Boeing for commercial jet business. Kingfisher was one of the first to order the new Airbus A380, the world’s largest passenger aircraft. It can be configured to seat upward of 550 passengers.

Epic currently makes its “experimental,” or kit planes, in Bend. For kit planes, Epic builds or orders parts that customers put together themselves at Epic’s Bend plant. Customers get on-site help this way and can finish the plane quickly.

The company is working on certifying a turboprop and light jet in its new facility in Canada, where the company built a plant to avoid the long, expensive procedure of getting Federal Aviation Administration certification. Aircraft are certified to global standards, so planes certified in Canada would be eligible to fly in the United States.

Gary Miller, president of the Central Oregon chapter of the Oregon Pilots Association, said

Epic’s goal to certify a line of single- and twin-engine jets in Canada could use the financial help from Mallya.

“Certainly, having a fat line of credit is going to be good for a company, if they can make good use of it,” Miller said.


CONT:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Federal certifications can cost tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, Miller said, and Mallya could solve that problem. Epic will be a good investment for Mallya, he added. Epic has proven to be an ambitious airplane maker with an impressive product line that includes the twin-engine jet Elite and upcoming light jet, Victor.

“Their ability to come up with new airplanes is slightly unusual,” Miller said, “and very costly.”

He pointed to Epic’s five planes listed on its Web site, one of which is certified: the single-engine
turboprop Epic Dynasty.

The future for Epic planes will be larger and faster models, Freeman said. The largest Epic plane currently holds eight passengers. Bigger planes could be used for commercial airlines’ pilot training, he said.

With Epic producing larger aircraft, more opportunities for growth will exist in the commercial airline market, Freeman said.

“Vijay believes the light-jet market is going to be a heavy growth market, which is why he jumped in so strong,” Freeman said. “He looked at our designs and capabilities and just really liked the whole vision of Epic. He loved the business model.”

Deep pockets

Mallya, a member of Indian Parliament, stepped into his late father’s business, United Breweries Group, in 1983 at the age of 28. Since then, he’s built it to a $2 billion organization with operations in various industries, including alcoholic beverages, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure development. Forbes.com lists Mallya’s net worth at $1.5 billion.

Freeman said Schrameck and Mallya have a mutual love of car racing. Mallya has been involved with international car-racing circuits, including the high-profile Formula 1 circuit as an official partner of the Panasonic Toyota Racing F1 team, according to his Web site.

Mallya also produces the annual Kingfisher Swimsuit Calendar, associated with his flagship beer brand, the last of which featured photo shoots from the French Riviera. He also sponsors golf, tennis and polo events in India.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Had to update #18 on the RIP sidebar:

Epic Aircraft & Cessna: CLOSED

Before it was just Cessna - layoffs

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And added Lucky 13:

Communal Frisk Bandits (Prineville Bancorp) FDIC SEIZURE Aug 7, 2009

hbm said...

"Except for this story about how the city is going to give EDCO more money to find ways to give other people more money to move here and hire 4000 people."

Our local officials -- and certain elements of the local news media -- NEVER fail to fall for this sort of puffery, no matter how many times these bright promises of thousands of jobs go up in smoke.

For your amusement this Saturday morning, here's the Bend Good Old Boy Chorus performing one of their most popular numbers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Freeman said Schrameck and Mallya have a mutual love...

Figures. Schrameck figures he'll get $200 mill for blowing this Indian Liberache.

hbm said...

" think the assumption is long-term growth in Central Oregon will be above average compared with other cities across the nation because of the lifestyle here,” Powderly said."

This crap about Bend's special "lifestyle" is pure bullshit, everybody knows it, but they're still trying to peddle it. For 80 years Bend was a little logging town in the middle of nowhere. People came here for the hunting and fishing sometimes, but not for the "lifestyle." The "lifestyle" was working in the woods or the mill all week and getting drunk on Friday night.

And then in the '60s Bill Healy and a few others put a couple of rope tows on a little local mountain and our city leaders got the brilliant idea that, with enough puffery, they could persuade everybody that this little logging town in the middle of nowhere was an "outdoor recreation paradise" with a wonderful "lifestyle" that people all over the world would just throng here by the hundreds of thousands to enjoy.

And for a while it ALMOST worked.

hbm said...

I suspect the era of people (except the very rich and/or the retired) deciding to move to a place because of its "lifestyle" is dead, and the Great Recession killed it. People will be thinking first about whether they can earn a livelihood for themselves and their families. "Lifestyle" moves are a luxury for people who don't have to worry about where the money is coming from.

Anonymous said...

So why do you stay HBM?

I showed up on a bike 20 years ago with $50 to my name. I didn't buy into anything, I just liked it here. I still think it's great. All the outdoor recreation, clean air, clean water keeps me happy.

Anonymous said...

This crap about Bend's special "lifestyle" is pure bullshit, everybody knows it, but they're still trying to peddle it.

Well, that's desperation talking. Any time you hear "lifestyle," just translate it to "oh-god-it's-all-falling-apart-please-help-us!"

What else do they have to hang their hats on? They can't talk about the thriving economy, the soaring real estate market, the world-class restaurants, the gorgeous college campus on the river.

Quimby said...

Butter, what I don't understand is how Epic could have burned through $200 million in 1.5 years! Damn, must have been some great parties.

You know that whole story was pure BS puffery.

Anonymous said...

BS puffery in our highly respected local paper?

Shirley, you jest.

Anonymous said...

"From the great mind and vision of hbm:

" have yet to see anyone identify ONE bona fide reason why Bend is such a "desirable place to live," other than the celebrated "outdoor lifestyle" (which relatively few have the time/ability/inclination/money to intensively indulge in).

Cultural amenities? Zilch. Climate? El sucko. "Small town charm"? Yeah, 25 years ago."

Good grief hbm! how miserable are you? Every visitor I've talked to recently would like to move here. If you hate the place so much, please just move away, or better yet, just drop dead. Your drivel is getting pretty old."

Yeah, lets get HBM outta town, the frickin ahole hates it here so much lets all chip in and get his sorry ass moved out of town. Maybe send him to SLC with our recent evacueee.

Quimby said...

And stop calling me Shirley....

Anonymous said...

One (of the MANY) nice things about living in Central Oregon is that it's dry here. It doesn't rain very much. But having HBM around is like living in the Valley. It's like a big, dark, dumping rain cloud sitting over your computer screen. And it's a dark rain cloud with a huge ego, to boot. Adios Hairy Ball Magnet, adios.

Anonymous said...

Also, it's sunny every day!

hbm said...

"So why do you stay HBM?"

Very simple answer: Can't afford to leave. Like a hell of a lot of other people.

"Every visitor I've talked to recently would like to move here."

The key word in that sentence is "visitor." Talk to people who've lived here 5 or 10 or 20 years. Find out how many of them would like to move the hell out.

Bend is like a woman you pick up in a bar just before closing. It's not until you sober up and see her in the light of day that you notice the face lift, the tummy tuck and the sagging silicone tits.

There's also an element of politeness. Visitor is talking to resident (you) and you say, "How do you like Bend?" and he says, "Wow, it's WONDERFUL! I envy you. I wish I could move here." But how many actually do? Ah, there's the rub. Seen our real estate numbers lately?

I suspect a great many of the people who get apoplectic every time I point out the deficiencies of Bend are folks who stupidly bought here at the height of the bubble, know in their guts that they made a horrible mistake but are still trying to persuade themselves that they didn't, that they made a brilliant move in coming to "paradise."

hbm said...

"Also, it's sunny every day!"

Without fail. 365 days a year. (366 in leap years.) And there are tame unicorns grazing on the lawns. You can walk right up and pet them and let your kids ride them.

hbm said...

"I showed up on a bike 20 years ago with $50 to my name."

And you'll probably leave the same way.

hbm said...

"Butter, what I don't understand is how Epic could have burned through $200 million in 1.5 years! Damn, must have been some great parties."

Or somebody investing in real estate with company money. Shocking, I know, but it's been known to happen.

Anonymous said...

HBM hypothesizes:

I suspect a great many of the people who get apoplectic every time I point out the deficiencies of Bend are folks who stupidly bought here at the height of the bubble, know in their guts that they made a horrible mistake but are still trying to persuade themselves that they didn't, that they made a brilliant move in coming to "paradise."

Atually, I moved here in 1992. Thought it was paradise then, still do. Plus, unlike hbm, I made a shitload of money on real estate, and could move anywhere I want. As much as you want to deny it, there are people here who love the place, have made real money here, and intend to stay.

Now if you would just move out. and leave the town to those who appreciate it...

Anonymous said...

HBM said: "Very simple answer: Can't afford to leave. Like a hell of a lot of other people"

Then sounds like your a dumb fuck who bought at the top like so many others then. And you sit around on your likely fat ass and whine and complain and criticize - what a sorry excuse you are.
Bend is a very nice place to live if you are a person who enjoys and appreciates what's here. Some don't and that is cool and what makes the world go round. Then of course there are losers and whiners like you.

Anonymous said...

HBM said: "I showed up on a bike 20 years ago with $50 to my name."

"And you'll probably leave the same way."

That"s friggin classic! Can't happen soon enough, I'll supply the bike and the 50 bucks. LOL

Anonymous said...

hbm said...

"I showed up on a bike 20 years ago with $50 to my name."

And you'll probably leave the same way.


I guess anything is possible but things would really have to take a crap for that to happen. I guess when you come here for the outdoor opportunities you don't really expect much from Bend other than a warm place to sleep, a place to buy food, and a job. That's all I was looking for and it was here. Things have changed a little for me and the town but I still dig it and I don't foresee myself leaving any time soon.

Well, gotta get some sleep so I can get up at 4am and scout for elk. Doesn't matter what time you get up in the morning, you'll never find culture in Central Oregon....elk yes, culture nada.

Anonymous said...

"Atually, I moved here in 1992. Thought it was paradise then, still do. Plus, unlike hbm, I made a shitload of money on real estate..."

Ah.....Douchbag.

Anonymous said...

>>Well, gotta get some sleep so I can get up at 4am and scout for elk.

What do the elk have you scouting for?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, how much are the elk paying you to scout? I'll take any job I can get!

MDHN09 said...

Talk to people who've lived here 5 or 10 or 20 years. Find out how many of them would like to move the hell out.

Your full of shit

Ask 20 people- Maybe 10% wants to move and of that the number that actually can and will do it much slimmer.

I think some of you live very sheltered life's.

Bewert said...

Re: Maybe send him to SLC with our recent evacueee.

###

Yeah, it sucks here in SLC. I just had to WALK to the garden for a tomato for my BLT.

BTW, here is the contract with EDCO(aka the Roger Lee Employment Act):

http://tinyurl.com/n4vujz

That first paragraph from the BULL article is about as rich as it gets:

Citing the experience and track record of Economic Development for Central Oregon, the city of Bend is nearing approval of a deal with the nonprofit that will make EDCO the primary economic development arm of the city, according to Bend City Manager Eric King...The position would be modeled after similar EDCO positions in Prineville, Redmond and Madras...

Classic.

Roger is going to bring green shoots to Bend? Like he did to Prineville?

And Jeff Eager, who I watched sleep through a City Council session, just happens to be Epic Air's lawyer....

I've got to admit--I thought things couldn't get any more fucked up over there when I left.

Bewert said...

Be sure to read page 12 of that contract your taxes are paying for--the "Deliverables".

A. Draft program completed and reviewed by the City Council by June 30, 2010.

Anonymous said...

"Yeah, it sucks here in SLC. I just had to WALK to the garden for a tomato for my BLT."

See, Bend is better. In Bend, you'd put on a clown suit and bike down to Newport Market for a tomato.

Anonymous said...

And just like SLC, this is white bread country.