Sunday, June 14, 2009

"Bend is in a depression..." -- Bob Thomas

Well, there you have it, folks.

Reputable business man telling a house subcommittee, and then printed in our local rag:

BEND IS IN A DEPRESSION

Wow. THAT makes it official. Although, we've been saying that for over a year.

I thought that was pretty stunning, to hear someone say that, much less have the Bully print it.

And not to belabor the point, and in case you've been in a cave for 2 years, the CAUSE of our current DEPRESSION is the REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY. Pure and simple, endlessly promoted and pumped and dumped on us, it was the real estate bubble, and it's inevitable collapse that is THE CAUSE of our current problems.

I feel like I have to say this sort of thing, because it's starting to spread & manifest itself in all sorts of collateral effects. Like Bob Thomas losing his dealership.

Almost any industry fueled by credit is getting it's ass waxed.

So you might think we're suffering a "credit bust", which we are, but it's primary vehicle for expansion was RE. We're not in a Depression because of zero down car deals.

The rest of the article about Thomas is standard self-serving tripe, standard issue when the Bully does it's usual BS. Even Greg Walden hops on the bandwagon, questioning the "wisdom" of closing ANY dealerships.

I just have 2 observations about this:

1) I still DO NOT understand why Gary Gruner in Madras is still alive.

I would have guessed they'd be The First GM dealership closed in Cent OR, GM bankruptcy or not. Gary Gruner? WTF?

2) Driving around auto row, and Bob Thomas' lots, there are NO CARS for sale in Cent OR.

Well, not "NO CARS", but a hell of a lot less than there were just a year ago. You could go to auto row on the East side, and see a ridiculous number of cars over there. THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS.

That was one of those businesses that was so irrational, I simply could not understand how any of those dealers survived. There are STILL too many.

And that doesn't count the innumerable used car dealers, whose numbers are now being swelled by new car dealers losing their franchises & joining their ranks.

I think you'll see a winnowing in the numbers of dealers, especially on auto row. There is just a ridiculous number of them. And the number of cars sold has already plunged, probably far worse than most people think. Ask Bob Thomas.


Proably the most amazing piece I've read since this whole RE Implosion began, is a piece posted in the comments by PopGoesBend. Excerpts:

Median home prices drop below 1989 levels in some parts of Southland

Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not even counting the effects of inflation.

John A. Beatrice, 55, bought his spacious two-story Spanish-style house there brand-new for $120,000 in 1989.
But he never imagined his neighborhood would drop off the charts. In April, a slightly larger home two doors away sold for $66,500.

That's just over half the $130,000 it went for new in 1992. In 2005, that house sold for $330,000.
...in 14 Southland ZIP Codes, mainly desert communities in the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, median prices have fallen below levels recorded in April 1989, according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate information service.

That means thousands of homes in those neighborhoods -- even houses barely 20 years old and in decent shape -- have lost every dime of their appreciation, giving back not just the gains of the recent bubble but steady increases logged over a generation.

The April median price in Beatrice's Lancaster ZIP Code of 93535, for example, was $87,000. That's down 74% from a $334,500 peak price in 2007.

Even worse was the 92410 ZIP Code in the city of San Bernardino, which covers several older neighborhoods. Its $61,000 April median represents an 84% drop from the peak of $370,000 in 2007.


Prices also tumbled below 1989 levels in neighborhoods in Palmdale, Hemet, Barstow, Desert Hot Springs, Victorville, Highland, Santa Ana and Oxnard, according to DataQuick.

Several other inland communities, including parts of Moreno Valley, Banning and Rialto, had median prices that were only slightly above 1989 levels and below the April 1990 median.


I always thought that Cali-Bangers would take it the hardest. The California Miracle was just that; a mirage, a figment, a dream.

I honestly had no idea where Palmdale was, and come to find it is in the barely commutable quasi-desert outskirts of LA's Northern suburbs, if you can call living 2-3hrs from LA in gridlocked traffic a "suburb".

Sound familiar? Out in the fucking desert? 2-3 hours from any real metro area?

Although I was sort of surprised about Oxnard having fallen below 1989 levels. What the fuck is next? Santa Barbara?

I wouldn't give a handful of my own shit for a house in cracker-ass Victorville. But Oxnard? I've been there, and it was OK. Ocean's just right there. Oxnard falling below 1989 levels is pretty strange.

And it's happening elsewhere, including the central valley:

Back to the future home prices

Real estate bargain hunters in Stockton can buy property for less than the sticker price of a Cadillac Escalade in today's market.

San Joaquin County real estate listings contain at least two dozen homes priced less than $50,000 and at least one as low as $15,900. These are prices not seen in California since the 1970s, a decade in which home prices climbed from $23,000 to $84,000.

The 1,300-square-foot house is priced at $15,900, a 92 percent discount from what property records show as a $180,000 selling price in August 2005.

My main takeaway on this piece is NOTHING IS SACRED. "Rationality" least of all. Prices staying above some price point that "makes sense" is 100% Grade AAA Bullshit.

Prices can AND WILL go to INSANE price levels. Prices will slice right through the "Rental Arbitrage Point" like a hot knife through butter. People will start questioning EVERYTHING when all sorts of "logical" arguments start to fall.

You'll soon be able to BUY A HOUSE IN BEND FOR LESS THAN THE RENT. Why?

Because "prices" are always based on CREDIT. Credit is valuing a STREAM OF MONEY, NOT A PILE OF IT. Credit is "If I give you this PILE OF MONEY, you will give me 360 payments of $X EVERY MONTH".

THAT is what's going away. Not for everyone, but for a hell of a lot of people. THAT is the "rational assumption" that will fail. No CREDIT means people will go back to paying for stuff with PILES OF MONEY, not streams. And there ain't much money left.

For now.

I think, FOR NOW, the primary economic theme is DEFLATION.

But our government is altering the natural course of things by throwing TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS at an essentially stagnant economy.

Not today, but soon, there will come a day of STAGFLATION. And it will boggle the mind. Money in this country will be worth nothing.

Houses probably WILL go up at that point. Well, at least compared to holding cash. Better to have your cash in some shack losing 5%/yr, than in the bank losing 15%. A 5% LOSS will actually feel like a good deal. People will treat cash like Ebola.

But not now. But folks, watch the dollar, and watch long government bonds.

The dollar index, after a long plummet from 120 in 2002, fell to as low as 70 last year. It had a dead-cat rally to 90, but has now fallen back to the high 70's. The World is getting nervous about the Obama Jeebus Printing Press.

Similarly, 30 year government bonds, declared DEAD a few years back when the US Gov't was never going to borrow money again (man, that never gets old), has fallen from it recent EUPHORIA DEFLATION FUELED all-time highs over 140 (My God!), clear back to pre-panic prices, around 115.

I would watch this. The dollar has long been signaling an incredible devaluation in our currency. But luckily, the Chinese & others have seen these losses counter-balanced by recent huge gains in treasury prices.

At least till recently. Now the double whammy of declining dollar and treasury pricing could cause a Worldwide credit panic, as the US has to print its way out of bankruptcy.

And that means STAGFLATION.


Portland is finally starting to really hurt in the current RE Depression. There were some good pieces recently.

Stalled Portland luxury development shows depths of recession

(Tom) Moyer's four decades of empire building smacked into a wreck of a recession April 10, when he halted construction on his $170 million Park Avenue West tower.

That morning, Moyer paid 100 workers in the pit spiked with rebar. On Wednesday, the final three workers climbed out of the hole for the last time.


Commercial lending has gone net negative.

I thought that graph was interesting. Lenders have gone net negative on commercial RE, taking more out in payments than they are lending. Again, the whole concept of STREAMS OF MONEY, is dying.

In another piece, we see that residential in Portland is also moribund:

Portland housing market still gloomy

Portland-area home owners continued to weather a gloomy market in May, another sign that talk of a economic recovery is premature for the region's housing market.

The Regional Multiple Listing Service reported today that the median price for homes sold in May was $250,000. That's down 13 percent from May 2008 and 17 percent from the August 2007 peak.

But the number of closed sales in May lagged last year by 23 percent. Pending sales, seen as a predictor of future closed sales, was down 7 percent from a year ago.

The inventory of unsold homes -- the time it would take to sell all homes on the market at the current sales paces -- dipped, but remains high at 10 months.

Portland is actually holding up pretty well since it does have... stuff. Unlike Bend, which only has RE, and nothing else.

Folks, don't believe the calls of a "RE-bound", and "we've GOT TO have hit bottom, it can't go any lower!", and such. We've heard both ad nauseum from RE "experts" (Bratton, DuBois, et al) quoted in the Bully going on 2 years.

It CAN go lower, and it WILL go lower.

Look at the price reductions in the cracker-ass middle of the desert in Cali: DOWN 90%+!

I don't think we'll see that, but 75-80% DOWN from the top is VERY POSSIBLE.

I mean, Holy Shit, we had $396,000 MEDIANS for the love of Christ! We're in the middle of ASS NOWHERE!

We'll hit $125K medians. If you DO CARE about capital preservation, and can tolerate renting, DO SO. Do it for 5-10 years. You will be able to make good money in 5-10 years from now.

Work, pile up your money, and shoot your wad in a few years. You'll have to pay cash, or nearly all cash, but there will be good money to be made.

NOT in cap-app. NO. RE isn't going to "go up" in any appreciable manner for 2 decades. BUT you can get a cash-flow positive shit-shack, that pays you a few hundred every month, and that will KILL what you could get elsewhere.


Finally...Any hbm sightings recently? Is he actually gone? Was the coincidental exodus of he & Brucey part of a Mormon love triangle?
hbm, come back! With you gone, there is no one to twist our nipples!
Look! In the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! It's hbm!
hbm, please come back! My leather bras have shrunk to just B-cup! I need you!

164 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Gat Damn She Ugly!

Bend mom busted for heroin with teens in car

Anonymous said...

She not ugly SHE BEND.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Calibangers and Cars....


THE MOST CALIBANGER'ISH BEHAVIOR I'VE SEEN IN A LONG TIME

Sisters Elementary - Last Day of School - Gaggle of fake-titted CaliBanger Cali-transplant wives who have Cali commuting husbands - doting over their sons & daughters getting into a white stretch limo parked in front of the elementary school.

Now most folks are struggling to EAT in Sisters and these bitches get a limo for their ELEMENTARY aged kids. It's not the prom you know.

The only bright light is that their husbands are commercial RE guys so that sort of conspicuous consumption might not be happening for much longer.

Now honest to goodness, I could easily afford to get my kids a limo on the last day of school ($150?)....but it would NEVER cross my mind to want to appear so outlandish and be so clueless to how that would come off in a struggling community. I simply could not believe my eyes.

It was the most case-in-point demonstration of what Homer has coined a "CaliBanger".

Anonymous said...

"but it would NEVER cross my mind to want to appear so outlandish and be so clueless to how that would come off in a struggling community."

+

Sisters is like Salem. Some have money (school teachers) and benefits (healthcare, PERS, raises every year), and security (seniority, Democrat politicians), and then there are the have-nots.

Anonymous said...

Where is Buster? (oh yeah, Thighland)

Where is Pussy? (oh yeah, Mormonville)

Where is hbm? (oh yeah, who cares?)

What about buster's meltdown? Was that really him screaming how much of a stud he is? Reminds me of dunc's meltdown.

Online meltdowns are very similar to the desperation meltdowns: bank robberies, suicides, etc.

FACT.

Anonymous said...

"Bend is in a Depression."

*

Huh?

BB2 is in a depression.

Barely a hundred comments? WTF??

Pull the plug on the life support, this blog has flatlined.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Pull the plug on the life support, this blog has flatlined.


Dude, I've tried... this motherfucker won't die.

But with Brucey & hbm off to greener pastures, and Buster rolled up in a fetal LaPine fantasy, this sum bitch just might be susceptible to BLOG AIDS.

DIE YOU FUCKER!!!! DIE!!!

foz said...
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Anonymous said...

nice pic foz!

foz said...
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foz said...
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Marge said...

My oh my....What you boyz been doing since I went to Klamath to find a big trout? One of my campmate's landed a 15-16 lb'er. Might be record at Rocky Point on a fly and 8lb test.
Some new shit going on here. Where did the ol'e guys go?

>Marge? Quit counting your ammo and reply!<

So, I am replying, WTF do you want me to say? I said, things are going to shit too slow for me. Don't need to count ammo, I know what I have and bought it before the "run". I could care less about RE other than putting up some stats here and there. The prices are slow to drop. Can't figure out what to do with my cash. There are no good places right now. Any ideas? Not RE yet! By the time prices drop the cash won't buy much. Shit, can't win for losin.
Buster, sounds like you had a China Ranch experience. Old man dancin with young fools around. Most nights there were fights. As well as at the Copper Kitchen. Anyone here remember them? Dunc might.
Later.

Anonymous said...

BUTTER finally acknowledges that we now have Deflation, but still (incorrectly) believes that inflation must be around the corner because we have: (a) expansionary Fed policy and (b) huge government borrowing.

Butter: Have you ever looked at Japan? Despite massive government spending to stimulate their economy since the 1990s, do they have inflation? [no]

What Butter doesn't seem to understand: (i) Banks are NOT lending out their reserves, (ii) people are keeping cash in mattresses (there is a huge fall in private borrowing). Result? The Fed cannot expand M2.

What about Government borrowing?

While huge, it has NOT offset a fall in private borrowing. People aren't taking out Car loans and Mortgages anymore.

Just now it was posted: "Can't figure out what to do with my cash. There are no good places right now. Any ideas?"


The only entity that is borrowing is the Federal government.

And it's doing so at incredibly cheap rates.

Just sayin'.

Anonymous said...

I don't see wage inflation, but food inflation wouldn't surprise me, along with inflation on the prices of imports and gasoline.

You can't have the upward spiral without wage inflation. But this could be worse.

Anonymous said...

How do you think Obama is doing on the economy? Did he make the right moves?

Do you see this turning around by 2010, getting worse, or the same?

Anonymous said...

Went to Bay Area, saw bank-owned house in Palo Alto. Not EAST Palo Alto - lots of them there - Palo Alto.

Didn't think there was any such thing. DID see lots of service-job Now Hiring signs though.

Anonymous said...

Obama is making everything worse for the people but great for the government. So it all depends on who's asking.

Anonymous said...

Ask about Obama after six or nine months. He's too new to power right now. He inherited the biggest fucking mess ever, something some folks would very much like us all to forget.

I'm one of those who would love to see some form of public option for health insurance that wasn't tied to an employer and cut out 25% or so in private overhead.

I love hearing the argument that public option will lead to single-payer and the end of private health insurance. I just read that argument on the opinion page of the WSJ this morning.

That is the dumbest fucking argument I've ever heard. If an industry is so fucked up that only 5-7% of Americans trust it, actually believe what it tells them, you really think we all give a fuck about it. We just want something comparable to the rest of the industrialized world.

Continuing to tell me we have the greatest health care system in the world is insulting when you realize we don't even rank in the top 30 for outcomes. This issue alone, if Obama can force the issue, will make my company and many other tiny, innovative companies much more competitive.

On the various bailouts, let's wait and see what happens for at least a few months. Can the US auto companies actually build cars we will buy? Will the banks and insurance companies pay the taxpayers back, with interest?

Time till tell. Ask again on Jan. 20, 2010. God knows the party that ran everything from 2000 to 2006 didn't accomplish much for the middle-class.

Anonymous said...

The credit crunch is amazing... My wife and I have nearly perfect credit, always pay cards on time, no delinquent payments and we have 90% equity in our home. We have no other debts other than the less than a year left on our mortgage. But... one of our credit cards got canceled last month, American Express. They apparently consider us a credit risk. LOL...

Anonymous said...

Our limits were cut in half. It's quite amazing. I've only ever had them give me more credit (that I didn't want) before.

Anonymous said...

346 Deschutes County NODs in April, 268 in May, and now only 119 thru half of June...

If the stability trend continues, how long will this blog survive?

Anonymous said...

Is that stability? How many houses were sold through the first half of June?

Anonymous said...

Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not even counting the effects of inflation.

******

So fucking what. 92-94 values were less than 89 values. 89 was close to the peak of the last So Cal real estate bull market.

Anonymous said...

"Went to Bay Area, saw bank-owned house in Palo Alto. Not EAST Palo Alto - lots of them there - Palo Alto."
______

that's a huge change. i've been all over san fran and haven't seen a single one yet. maybe it will spread . . . .

PopGoesBend said...

So fucking what?

"Its $61,000 April median represents an 84% drop from the peak of $370,000 in 2007."


Down 84%, and still not at bottom. That's fucking what.

Anonymous said...

Seems like we'll probably have a bunch of knife-catchers jump in and buy some "bargains" before the next big leg down.

PopGoesBend said...

Of course, for $61,000 you can buy 10 median houses in Detroit and still have money left over for a flat screen TV.

"In the city of Detroit, the median sales price in May was $6,000, down 29.4% from May 2008."

http://www.freep.com/article/20090612/BUSINESS04/906120317/1017/BUSINESS/Home+sales+rise+as+prices+keep+falling

Marge said...

44 SFR sold to date @ $211k median. Ho-Hum!

Anonymous said...

If the stability trend continues, how long will this blog survive?
.
.
NODs twice the number of sales is stability?

Let me get a hit of that shit bro...

Anonymous said...

Two weeks to go, and I'm back in Thailand :)

The rental biz is flush, I think I'll have all my shit filled by July1, .. 2009,...

And I'll be out of this shit hole for a min of six weeks, ... and longer if I can swing it :)

Here's what I'm seeing 'boyz' is lawyers, tons of FED jobs, and they're hiring kids with law degrees, makes sense, sort of like Billary and tort-law, ... Obama has created a full employment act for un-employed lawyers, good that they get out of private sector and go public, and they're all presenting offer letters of $100k, with verifiable agency's. ...

I'll be out of this shit-hole, back in Malay within 2-3 weeks getting my dick sucked by a 20 yr old.

OUT!

tim said...

>>NODs twice the number of sales is stability?

Just wait until the annual "selling season" is over.

Anonymous said...

Thanks marge to confirm the china-hat or whatever bar you mentioned, I doubt if all dunc is much of a bar person the day, I know I spent my time fighting at the D&D back in the 1970's.

But these kids fucking with old farts, whats the point these kids don't even work, and I have been swinging a hammer and working with my hands for 50+ years.

I simply don't see what your saying back say 30+ years ago real cowboys would come into town and act tough, but these were real working men, and some of these kids were tough as nails, ... but these kids now causing trouble in Bend are all candy ass kids who haven't held a job even at 30+. Sort of like 'kept-children' by ma&pa cali, ... do I simply don't see the THEN & NOW as being same.

OUT!

tim said...

>>The rental biz is flush, I think I'll have all my shit filled by July1, .. 2009,...

That's great. Did you get any interesting applicants this time around? Funny or sad stories?

Marge said...

>Thanks marge to confirm the china-hat or whatever bar you mentioned, I doubt if all dunc is much of a bar person the day, I know I spent my time fighting at the D&D back in the 1970's.<<<

China Ranch was the bar... I never said the "real cowboys" were in town. Just guys with hats for that matter... oh and the wrangler butts. Do remember the "D" and the fights. Pool tables in the front room and 2 exits, choose one, depending on where the fight was. It was the old days but not always good. The cops were a hell of alot easier on drinkin and drivin though.

Duncan McGeary said...

Oh, god. 30 years ago. China Ranch. Driving home drunk. Yep.

Marge said...

Dunc,
Yep on that one. 2am, four in the front seat of my pickup, cop does a louie in the middle of 97, new I was dead meat and turned down a side road behind Red Carpet So. Only had 2 beers and a 1/2 gal of wine open:).. Damn, they made us pour it out and walk home. Powell Butte was a very long walk, took 2 days:)
Over.

Marge said...

knew not new.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Powell Butte was a very long walk, took 2 days:)

Awesome! My own DWI story (see... I'm old... it was still "DWI" back then) was enogh to scare me into a lifetime of sober drinking...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just wait until the annual "selling season" is over.


Yeah, they're going to call this DEPRESSION over several times this Summer....

DUH!

IT'S SUMMER! YoY only thing that makes sense here.

Bewert said...

Re: Dunc,
Yep on that one. 2am, four in the front seat of my pickup, cop does a louie in the middle of 97, new I was dead meat and turned down a side road behind Red Carpet So. Only had 2 beers and a 1/2 gal of wine open:).. Damn, they made us pour it out and walk home. Powell Butte was a very long walk, took 2 days:)
Over.

####

Marge, that's funny as hell. Two days!

Ah, back when we were young and drinking age was 18 and not seen so bad...

Had a forest party busted and had to go back and get my keg from the cop shop to save my $40 deposit. At sixteen.

And didn't even have to show my fake ID :)

Buddies couldn't believe that one.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BUTTER finally acknowledges that we now have Deflation...


"Finally"? WTF? I've said nothing but for MONTHS.

The difference between US & Jap's? The Japs have had a huge TRADE SURPLUS for DECADES. We have an incredible TRADE DEFICIT with the Chinese... we owe them TRILLIONS. The Japs are owed TRILLIONS, and have been for DECADES.

Also... I think the OBomb-inator will have no problem quasi-nationalizing and FORCING banks to lend. He's dong it NOW. He will FORCE INFLATION DOWN OUR THROATS, LIKE SO MUCH DONKEY CUM.

THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe


Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe has persisted since the early 2000s, shortly after that country's confiscation of white-owned farmland and its repudiation of debts to the International Monetary Fund. Figures from November 2008 estimated Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate at 89.7 sextillion (10^21) percent (i.e. prices double every 24.7 hours).[1] In April 2009, Zimbabwe abandoned printing of the Zimbabwean dollar, and the South African rand and US dollar became the standard currencies for exchange. The government does not intend to reintroduce the currency until 2010.

Official statistics reported in October put Zimbabwe's annual inflation in July 2008 at 231 million percent.

In February the government of Zimbabwe revalued its currency. One of these new Zimbabwean dollars is worth one trillion of the previous. [41] This move took the number of noughts (zeros) removed during the period of hyperinflation to 25 (10^25 equals 10 septillion short scale; thus, if no revaluations had taken place, Zimbabwe would now be issuing 10 septillion dollar notes.).



That's what happens when you PRINT MONEY to pay a foreign despot... or the IMF.

OUR despot is CHINA. WE WILL PRINT MONEY TO PAY THEM, GUARANTEED.

Zimbabwe has actually lost it's abilty to print currency, as the German firm that has been doing it, Giesecke & Devrient, had to quit under pressure from the Kraut Gov't.

But according to MUGAMBE, all is well in Zimbabwe!

Welcome to Zimbabwe, African Paradise!


Zimbabwe is a unique and fascinating holiday destination, blessed with a landscape of extraordinary beauty, rich and diverse tropical wildlife. Unspoilt by mass tourism, it has something to offer everyone - from a quiet and spacious haven to a land of thrilling adventure, through white-water rafting and traditional dance to birding safaris and contemporary music. For anyone who wants to experience the best that Africa has to offer, Zimbabwe is the ideal destination.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's really sort of unbelievable...

On 16 February 2006, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Dr. Gideon Gono, announced that the government had printed ZWD 21 trillion in order to buy foreign currency to pay off IMF arrears.

On January 16, 2009, Zimbabwe announced plans for imminent issue of banknotes of $10 trillion, $20 trillion, $50 trillion, and $100 trillion.


So 3 years after printing a TOTAL of $21 TRILLION in currency for the ENTIRE COUNTRY OF ZIMBABWE, you could be issued a $100 TRILLION BILL, or about 5X the entire national money supply just 3 years prior. AWESOME.

Bewert said...

Re: Unspoilt by mass tourism, it has something to offer everyone...

####

Especially Buster, after he gets his Viagra refill.

Jelement said...

Seems like we'll probably have a bunch of knife-catchers jump in and buy some "bargains" before the next big leg down.

So this is the current topic I'm wrestling with - when to ditch renting and jump in to buy something. I still don't see it as that bad if you're reasonable with a purchase. We're looking around $170k-$190k and there's some decent stuff to be had.

Currently paying $725 for rent, including most utilities, cable, and internet - yeah we could get somewhere a bit cheaper but it isn't horrible. A mortgage is going to run us somewhere around $1100-$1250 with tax and PMI. The NOD's I see are all people not paying on mortgages that are $2k+ a month, which they should have never purchased in the first place.

So if you're trying to balance interest rates going back up against prices going down still, and then the possibility of near-future inflation, when is someone supposed to buy? Wait until houses are cheap but rates suck - great for cash buyers but not for me. Wait for inflation to move prices up - would have been nice to have bought something pre-inflation and essentially had it cost less by being able to pay it down easier. Renting and saving money is going to look pointless if inflation keeps devaluing your stash.

Then there's the $8k tax credit, currently only good if you close by December 1st with no indication if whether it will be renewed or switched back to the old credit that had to be paid back over time.

I'd rather have a home so I feel like I can start doing the things I've wanted to do but can't as a renter. Having a real yard, raising some animals, generally being more self-sufficient. That has to be worth something.

Anonymous said...

CIALIS, ... 1/2 the little yellow pil and your 12 hrs to please the girls.

But only needed when they want to go all night, sometimes even the girls need to sleep.

Never took a whole pill, I understand it keeps you up for 36 hrs, just so folks know, you can't really get an orgasm with that shit, I only take it on first dates to impress the LBFM ( little brown fucking machines ) that I'm alive, after that they love you know you can perform, .. on demand.

After that I ask about once a week if they want to go all night, and they're usually still sore from the first time, like they say "UP TO THEM". Not up to me, ... if you can't perform for these girls they'll dump you quicker than a can be Bend warm piss.

Anonymous said...

Oh, god. 30 years ago. China Ranch. Driving home drunk. Yep.

*

But dunc, I just can't picture you as a trouble maker.

Anonymous said...

China Ranch was the bar... I never said the "real cowboys" were in town.

*

I remember the real cowboys would come in from all over the Millican Valley and farther east, some of these kids hadn't had a pussy or booze for weeks and if they didn't get pussy they got into a fight, just as good for all.

I don't see much of this anymore except up at the cascade-locks brewery in Redmond, cowboys don't come to Bend anymore not since the 1980's, Bend ain't Orygun since then, ... now they go to Burns or Lakeview, someplace real.

Duncan McGeary said...

"But dunc, I just can't picture you as a trouble maker."

No fights. But way too much drunk driving back then. I always thought I could maintain, you know. I could drive well. But I remember one date jumping out of my car at the corner of Third and Franklin, and walking home.

(At least I hope it was because I was driving drunk.....that was the night I made it to the hallway outside my room, woke up early in the morning and puked, and passed out again...oh, what fun.)

I remember China Ranch and the succession of bars that were where Stars is now. Lots of age groups mixing it up.

There weren't all that many night spots, that I remember.

Like I said, 30 years ago, put enough alcohol in me and I was actually friendly and outgoing.

The Natives Are Restless said...

Ah, Tony's Poco Toro...

Anonymous said...

Jelement,

High rates aren't just good for cash buyers--they're good for anyone with 20% down, as many of your competitors will try to get in with 10%. That means prices have to come down to reach the 10% bozos and you benefit. Then if rates come down later you refi.

PopGoesBend said...

And for the same payment, unless you are keeping the house for the duration of the mortgage, it makes more sense to have a higher interest rate and have paid less for the house than to have a low interest rate and have paid more. A $1200 payment with 5% rate is not as good as a $1200 payment with a 10% rate if it's on the same house. You will have paid much less for the house and have much more in your pocket when you sell. It would be very tough for you if you bought at 5% rates and had to sell sometime if the rates go north of 10%. The new buyer wouldn't be able to pay anything close to what you did.


>Renting and saving money is going to look pointless if inflation keeps devaluing your stash.

It hasn't STARTED devaluing your cash, and it will have to be wage inflation to send house prices up, not just cost of goods inflation. If you are paying more for food, gas, and heat but aren't making any more money you won't be able to buy a house and pay more money then they are now.

The $8k tax credit isn't a concern. House values are dropping by that in a few months. Buying before December to get the $8k will not have been much of a benefit if the house price is $30k less come next July.

Having the freedom to do stuff around the house is worth something, but not the $50k I think houses I am looking at are going to lose in the next year.

Jelement said...

Certainly not in a rush at this point anyways. The tax credit is back on the senate floor as of last week, looking at raising it to $15k, remove the first time buyer requirement as well as the income restrictions. And it would be good for a year from the date it is signed in to law instead of expiring on December 1st.

In other news, I've seen something interesting with job postings over the last several weeks. My position is stable but I don't work a full 40 hours so I always keep an eye out for anything else that might be open. Several positions that I looked at which had application deadlines have extended their deadline or changed to open until filled. You'd think with a high UE rate there'd be plenty of applicants. Maybe its just the type of job, perhaps skilled technical work isn't getting enough applicants?

With the anecdotal stories you hear around here about how many applications come in for a position, there must be a lot of underqualified desperate people out there applying for jobs they'll never have a chance of getting.

Anonymous said...

Looks like it's time to sell off some of the assets bought with bubble bucks.

Grand Piano

Jelement said...

Haha, the Sawyer fire sale is on.

Kawasaki Vulcan

BMW Z4

Anonymous said...

I mean, don't you have to work at disabling the anonomize feature on CL? Man, not so smart.

Jelement said...

They still used the anonomize for the contact address, but when you include in your post "Contact Kevin at sawyerkt@bendcable.com" it isn't hard to figure out.

tim said...

Maybe those were posted as a prank. Who would leave their contact info in the body?

Anonymous said...

>> Who would leave their contact info in the body?

Somebody who's desperate?

Anonymous said...

RE: inflation

The Zimbabwe example again? Come on, the Japan experience is far more relevant. Like them we're likely to be stuck in a deflationary trap for many years. Inflation should be the furthest thing from your mind right now.

The Fed has lowered rates to zero and prices of goods & services are STILL falling. Monetary policy is completely tapped out. The government is borrowing, but doing so at historically cheap rates.

Stagflation? I guess you're referring to the 1970s. Again, not such a relevant example. Back then we were highly dependent on oil, and went oil prices when through the roof. We got inflation while the economy shrank (shrunk?). Back then workers' wages were high and rising as well. In case you haven't noticed, there is not the slightest chance of wage-based inflation.

MDHN09 said...

you guys should turn on OPB- Frountline talking about Paulsen and the role the super banks have played in economy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Boondoggle of the Day!!

Bend is on track to approve new partnership with EDCO

King said the city would increase its annual contribution to EDCO from $65,000 to $80,000 and EDCO would in return establish a position that would learn the ins and outs of city policy and planning in order to better attract manufacturing and high-tech companies to the city, and report on such efforts directly to the City Council.

The city previously had its own economic development director who largely managed several city programs dealing with affordable housing, Juniper Ridge, Bend Municipal Airport, city-owned real estate and downtown parking, but didn’t focus on recruitment and retention, King said.

Due to budget constraints, the position was eliminated after the December resignation of its last office holder, and program oversight was redistributed throughout city government.

EDCO’s current business development director, Eric Strobel, has been identified as the EDCO employee likely to take the position.

“We’ve been working real well with the city for the past couple of years and we thought, ‘Let’s increase that partnership,’” Strobel said. “EDCO can basically handle the economic development for the city as far as recruitment and retention, and it’s just a better link.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So Stoebel ALREADY works at EDCO, and basically ALREADY fulfills this position... BUT BY GOD, they are going to STRENGTHEN THE BOONDOGGLE, by cutting a check to EDCO for absolutely NO REASON, other han giving a dude a fancy new title.

Good Job Lee! The Mega EDCO Boondoggle Continues! Make sure you tell the other City Employees who have been laid off about this! They'll be so happy! We need FEWER COPS so that EDCO can rip us off!!! GOOD JOB CITY COUNCIL!

Anonymous said...

so when was the last time EDCO or anyone brought new business to CO?

T-Mobile?

Anonymous said...

Two of my neighbors have lost good jobs, and they can not even get interviews. These are the people who pay all the taxes(lowest 40% of people pay NO income tax), and the people who buy new cars.
When THEY are in trouble, we ALL are.
Thank you Mr. Greenspan.

Anonymous said...

This blog MUST live on if only to be a counterweight to all the BS that's being put out there by the local media.

PopGoesBend said...

HOLY SHIT. I just read a blog post that changed my reality.

In the past month we’ve seen the Bend real estate market heat up! All signs are pointing to the bottom.

This is big news.... real big news... where's my pre-approval letter... dammit... it's here somewhere.

Jelement said...

HOLY SHIT. I just read a blog post that changed my reality.

That seems to be a common theme I'm seeing with realtors in the area. I guess they're convinced if they say it enough people might start to believe it.

I've heard that more than a few times lately about how places are supposedly getting a flood of offers within the first week of being on the market. This is from another local RE agent blog last month:

I’m working with a few buyers right now that are interested in purchasing bank owned homes and I can’t tell you how many times we’ve run into multiple offers on homes they were interested in. There was a home in The Parks at Broken Top that was listed in the morning and by the afternoon they had 7 offers. It was listed at $270,000 and sold for $285,000. There was another home in Skyliner Summit that I showed and they had already submitted 2 offers to the bank but neither of them had been accepted yet. We submitted an offer but the bank accepted one of the other offers before they had a chance to review ours. That home was shown 36 times in the first week it was on the market.

I just don't see any major movement or signs of a bottom. There's an uptick in sales because of the season and that seems to be about it.

PopGoesBend said...

Portland Mayor Sam Adams behind on house payments.

He has two houses and the total mortgage is a hair under $2k a month, while making $118,144 a year. Uh... WTF? That just does not seem like it should be that hard to make the payments.

Anonymous said...

There's a great article in the Bulletin today about renting versus buying. Hilarious. Had the stench of desperation all over it.

hbm said...

"Finally...Any hbm sightings recently?"

Just got back from Hawaii -- two weeks of REAL sunshine and wahines in bikinis. Funny thing: In looking through all the tourist literature there I didn't come across the word "paradise" once.

If you have to constantly TELL people your place is "paradise" ... it ain't.

hbm said...

Dunc: "But I remember one date jumping out of my car at the corner of Third and Franklin, and walking home."

Well, that tops anything in my experience.

Although one time I drove home so drunk I had to stop the car every 15 minutes or so to puke out the window. Ah, sweet college days!

Anonymous said...

Not all that surprising....


http://bend.craigslist.org/bfs/1224383712.html

Bewert said...

Re: RE blog post

####

Here is a quick glance at the current Bend real estate market.

1622 ACTIVE Residential Listings (single family stick-built)
217 PENDING Residential Listings (single family stick-built)
119 SOLD Residential Listings in the past month (single family stick-built)

####

OK, cunts, let's do the math:

(217+1622)/119=15.5 months of inventory. That's almost promising.

Of course the 275 NODs filed from 5/17 to 6/17 shouldn't affect the market, right.

Like Dylan says--"Now REALLY is the time to buy."

The EDCO thing isn't even worth commenting on. It's fucking amazing just how much of a clusterfuck your Bend leadership is.

MDHN09 said...

how many months of inventory SF Stick built did we have last year at this time?

Anonymous said...

Well HBM, if you've got to go to Hawaii this far out of season, you sure as shit can't afford to live there. Why the fuck would anybody in their right mind go in June? Hmmm, maybe you would like to go visit Bewert, the Jewtah fag boy, next December.

Anonymous said...

read all about californians in bend in the new york times today:

Slump Dashes Oregon Dreams of Californians

Published: June 17, 2009

BEND, Ore. — Susan and Mike Telford had a plan back in the boom years in California. They would sell their house outside Fresno at a solid profit and take their equity to this sunny mountain city to build a better life, a fresh-air future in Oregon.

“We wanted to lose the commute, to lose the smog,” Mrs. Telford said. “We wanted to lose California.”

They moved here in 2006, when Bend was one of the fastest-growing places in the West and money and migration from California fueled that growth. Now the Bend area’s unemployment rate, at almost 16 percent, is one of the highest of any metropolitan area in the nation. “For sale” signs dot desert-toned, unfinished subdivisions. Luxury furniture stores downtown are going out of business. San Francisco chefs have fled.

The freefall has made Bend a succinct symbol for the economic perils of “lifestyle destinations” in the so-called New West, recreation-heavy communities where jobs have been heavily tilted toward construction and services and where many of the new residents were self-made exiles from California cashing in on their overpriced real estate.

[continued on the nytimes web site]

Anonymous said...

Duncan's "poverty with a view" made it into the NY Times:


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/us/18oregon.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all

*

This must be the article that HBM was talking about. However, he is not named as a source in the article.

hbm said...

"This must be the article that HBM was talking about. However, he is not named as a source in the article."

I never said the Times had talked to me about the story.

hbm said...

"Why the fuck would anybody in their right mind go in June?"

Lower rates, less heat and humidity, and kids are still in school so they're not swarming all over the beaches and the pool.

Also, I managed to miss the soggy end of Bend's "spring."

Over the past 25 years or so I've been to Hawaii in June, July, August, September and October and the weather's been good every time, but July, August and September can get pretty hot and muggy. This time the air temp was in the mid-80s and the water was in the low 70s, which is just fine for me.

I don't think I'd go in November through May, though.

Bewert said...

Re: ...visit Bewert, the Jewtah fag boy

####

Bend City Council Meeting Highlights

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Work Session:

Recommendation from Street Maintenance Funding Committee

The Street Maintenance Funding Focus Group made recommendation to implement a transportation utility fee of $1 to $2 per month for residential and $4 to $6 for commercial residents to be implemented in September.

After hearing the presentation, Council discussed whether to proceed with the recommendation. Councilors Greene, Clinton, and Eager were opposed and Councilors Capell, Barram, and Teater were supportive of the recommendation. Mayor Eckman was absent. An ordinance will be prepared to implement the fee and will be brought to Council for consideration when Mayor Eckman returns.

####

Yep, you can come visit a real ski area. Where both EBay and Microsoft are bringing jobs.

Kind of sucks, doesn't it?

But, hey, you can have your choice of a few thousand REO's to buy in Bend. Just saw my buddy Pete W. lose another on Galveston earlier this week.

Have fun paying your new fees, boys. It's only a couple of bucks.

Bewert said...

This is a real ski area. Only nine miles up the road from where I sit.

Duncan McGeary said...

Oh, shut up, Bruce.

You left.

Duncan McGeary said...

Interesting.

The 'Urban Dictionary' actually attributes the phrase "Poverty with a view" specifically to Bend, Oregon.

I first heart that phrase in the mid-80's around Bend, but always assumed other resort towns used it too.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Back Surgeries in Bend."

Once again, what seemed to be one of Buster's weird exaggerations turns out to be true....

Bewert said...

Of course, you have idiots everywhere:

Dalane England, Eagle Forum vice president of issues, said she likes the abstinence-only first track in the North Carolina bill, but the second track goes too far.

"It's so wide open that there isn't anything you couldn't teach," England said. "They could teach about how to put on a condom. I really don't think that's appropriate language to be using with 15- to 18-year-olds in a mixed setting."


####

What is fucking hilarious is having a gay community with it's own "The Source" newspaper in an area with such 18th century BS.

But then you've got the fact that the Mo's seem to have been self-selecting for big titted women for the last 150 years or so.

Bewert said...

Dunc, your little shop is one of the things I really miss.

Bewert said...

I still think you should build out the basement and call it The Dungeon, where the really cool stuff is.

Jelement said...

Fuck me, are we going to have to hear about how SLC is a fucking wonderland all the time now?

This is from March 2008:

A recent study by Mental Health America, the country's oldest independent mental health advocacy organization, ranked Utah the most depressed state in the country.

Another survey released last week by drug distribution company Express Scripts found that residents of Utah were prescribed antidepressant drugs more than those of any other state and at twice the national average.

And I suppose you don't ever have increased taxes in SLC?

Have fun paying your new fees, boys. It's only a couple of bucks.

Ummmm, Brucey?

http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_12614294


6/17/2009

Salt Lake City School District patrons will be paying more in property taxes this year, but won't see a dime of it.

They won't have a say in how it's spent, nor can they protest it.

The 9 percent increase -- about $24 per $100,000 of home value -- was required by a new equalization law that shifts property tax money from Salt Lake County schools to Jordan School District. The increase will yield $6 million and was approved as part of Salt Lake district's $246 million budget.

The entire $6 million will go to the Jordan district, or what's left of the district, Salt Lake district spokesman Jason Olsen said. "We had no say in the matter."

There will be no "truth-in taxation" hearing on the increase because the equalization law requires no such hearing


And the bulletin may suck, but at least it doesn't have its own section under the "News" heading on the website for Polygamy.

In between Crime & Justice and LDS no less

Have fun in Jewtah, I'm sure it's even better than Buster's Malay wet dreams.

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, but you left, Bruce. You didn't stick it out! You are not worthy of Poverty with a View!

Taking cheap shots from afar!!!

Actually, we probably need a few potshots from Utah. Keep em coming.

word veri: mooth. I like that word. It ought to mean something...

Anonymous said...

Orygon has always been a "boom or bust" economy. This time it is different, as many of these jobs are gone, forever. There will be no sharp bounce back or recovery.
Will just stay mired in a mild recession for the next decade.

LavaBear said...

>>>word veri: mooth. I like that word. It ought to mean something...

It does. It's a key ingredient in any martini. Vodka and a splash of mooth.

hbm said...

"Another survey released last week by drug distribution company Express Scripts found that residents of Utah were prescribed antidepressant drugs more than those of any other state and at twice the national average."

That's cuz they can't get enough booze.

But seriously ...

Strict fundamentalist religions like Mormonism exert heavy repression on sexual and other normal, healthy human appetites. (Kids are taught it's a sin to jack off, fer crap's sake.) That takes a heavy psychological toll.

LavaBear said...

Can you sales tax anyone? Oh damn, nobody is buying anything either so that won't help.

Anonymous said...

hbm,

You don't sound incredibly happy yourself.

LavaBear said...

>>>You don't sound incredibly happy yourself.

It's a depression but I feel fine.

Anonymous said...

I don't get you, hbm. You're a liberal, but you seem meaner and more judgmental than the people you attack. How about some live and let live? Why always looking to attack groups of people?

LavaBear said...

>>> You're a liberal, but you seem meaner and more judgmental than the people you attack.


Are you talking about the surgeons he attacked today over on his blog or the sexually suppressed among us?

LavaBear said...

>>>Strict fundamentalist religions like Mormonism exert heavy repression on sexual and other normal, healthy human appetites.

And by the way hbm, most fundamentalist Mormon families I've run across all have like 14 kids in tow. Do you think a guy that has 14 kids is really sexually suppressed? And no I'm not a Mormon. Two of the things that scare me most in this world are clowns and the cult that is Mormonism.

Anonymous said...

LavaBear, you forgot to mention mimes.

hbm said...

"You're a liberal, but you seem meaner and more judgmental than the people you attack."

Really? I'm meaner and more judgmental than the fundies? At least I ain't telling people they're gonna go to hell if they don't pray to my god in my way.

hbm said...

"Do you think a guy that has 14 kids is really sexually suppressed?"

All that proves is that he screwed his wife at least 14 times without using contraception.

Mormon literature advises young men on how to "cure" themselves of the "sin" of masturbation. For real. Look it up.

hbm said...

"Are you talking about the surgeons he attacked today over on his blog"

I didn't attack anybody. I merely pointed out some interesting statistics.

Anonymous said...

Fuck me, are we going to have to hear about how SLC is a fucking wonderland all the time now?

No fuckin shit...we didn't like you while you where here and now you gloat because you ran for cover in SLC? Fuck the fuck off you whiney bitch! Go drop some names somewhere else kook bitch...

Bewert said...

Re: Fuck the fuck off you whiney bitch! Go drop some names somewhere else kook bitch..

####

Ah, yeah.

All I asked for was a self-sustaining economy. Sorry, but you don't have one in Bend.

You could be the regional center. But the powers that be seem to think you are some sort of paradise that doesn't exist anywhere else.

Horner is with Lance in Aspen right now. Get over yourself.pkgu

Bewert said...

I sat through a fucking interview with your Mayor, for the Bend Finance Committee. Her IQ is somewhat south of triple digits. And she has forced her agenda on you suckers. Starting with demanding to be the Mayor.

Pathetic.

Bewert said...

Bend could be a really good place, bit it isn't right now.

Bewert said...

...but...dyslexic typing strikes again....

Anonymous said...

The Bend story is now the second most e-mailed story on the NY Times Web site. The list is on the home page. That's pretty amazing: #2 out of all stories in the Times.

Bewert said...

Got to love that pic at the top of the story....

Bewert said...

"Another casualty was Bend Living, a glossy regional magazine driven by advertisements for high-end homes and luxury furniture. Kevin Max, the magazine’s former editor, is planning the first issue of a new magazine about Oregon culture and history, based in Bend and set to make its debut this summer. It is called “1859,” a reference to the year Oregon entered the union.

“Bend Living was about Bend’s emergence into 24-7, go-go-go, irresponsible construction and people living beyond their means,” Mr. Max said. “1859 is kind of National Geographic meets Condé Nast Traveler. It’s about Oregon, so it’s all about sustainability.”"

####

Hey, at least his wife Sarah is way hot...

Anonymous said...

"Back Surgeries in Bend."

Once again, what seemed to be one of Buster's weird exaggerations turns out to be true....

*

Thanks dunc, yes this is one of those dirty little secrets that nobody outside of the med profession knows about Bend, OR.

We have a joke, 'Got a cold?" Go to PDX for diagnosis, cuz in Bend they'll put you under the knife.

Bend leads the country in un-necessary surgery. Always go to PDX for second opinion and surgery, hell they killed Mayor Friedman last year.

Anonymous said...

Will somebody please ask me about malay-thai pussy?

HBM I bet I ate more mango than you? My girls sliced every AM, and fed me like a baby in bed.

Anybody have any questions about safe dosage of viagra or cialis??

All my rentals are now rented, two more weeks and I'm flying on a jet plane for two months, ... GONE, BEND-GONE. Hopefully by the end of the year I'll have my place finished, and I'll spend more time in the tropics than I do here.

There is heaven on earth for men, but lets just say it ain't BEND-ORYGUN.

OUT!

Anonymous said...

yes, great to see the HBM story in todays NY-TIMES, I had been looking for it over a month ago when HBM first told us it was coming, ...

Note there is no doubt that all the material was fed by HBM, and there is no doubt he got it from this site, ...

I just wish somebody had the balls to mention this site, to get us some traffic, by guys,

I got some heavy phone ( skype video ) sex with sakura do now 8pm, ever since I put a cam on her computer and taught her how to use skype she wants to meet everyday at 8pm, 10am her time, the things we got to do to keep our women faithful.

Convenient that HBM planned to be out of town when the story came out, and that it appears after he got back, he'll catch hell by the powers for this one,

HBM you still got to tell about the 'hamster story' and if it will ever run or if it ran anywhere??

LavaBear said...

>>>LavaBear, you forgot to mention mimes.

Mimes are just artsy clowns in my book. Frightening indeed.

Anonymous said...

Horner is with Lance in Aspen right now.

...who gives a fuck? Two weeks prior to the tour and you think they would be staying in 3600Ft Bend?

Are you beating off Bruce because SLC is closer to Aspen?


While I don't know you, I know your type. You're the guy who claims to know everyone but when when brought to that special someone attention, they have to dig deep to remember you and then they say....yeah, I remember him but he's was kind of a kook.

Do us all a favor and fade the fuck away....you don't live here anymore

LavaBear said...

>>>Mormon literature advises young men on how to "cure" themselves of the "sin" of masturbation. For real. Look it up.


Mormons aren't alone on that one.... Just saying.

LavaBear said...

>>>Bend could be a really good place, bit it isn't right now.


While I may or may not agree with that statement the fact you bailed and then come back with the comment is a bit unbecoming. I met you a couple times at City Council meetings. Thought about introducing myself but you came across as a clown and I've already mentioned how I feel about clowns. I did enjoying talking with your wife the times I dropped into the shop.

Anonymous said...

"Thought about introducing myself but . . . ."

Funny, I saw Duncan in front of his shop last Friday afternoon, and almost introduced myself, but he was so busy putting books on display -- and there were so many customers milling about -- that I didn't make the effort. Anyway, the store looks nice Duncan.


On a related note: Buster, were you in Super Burrito last Friday about 4:00 pm? I was there with my wife (who by the way is Asian).... I thought it could be you.

Anonymous said...

BEND SAYS FUCK YOU TO TOURISTS ... :)

Bend Brewfest canceled

KDRV - ‎7 hours ago‎
BEND, Ore. - The 4th Annual Bend Brewfest has been canceled amid allegations of overzealous enforcement by the Oregon Liquor Control Commission. ...
Bend Brewfest Cancelled KOHD

Anonymous said...

Come on guys be good to the BPussy, he be one of us forever.

Pleeze.

Bend is MORMRON, and BP be our front man for Mormronism.

Anonymous said...

Sorry not me @Super-Burrito not go there since they moved but once and no like now.

If be at taco-shack on most days, but usually to-go.

I did like Rigobertos before they closed, and go to long-board twice a week for a break-fast burrito.

sincerely,

Anonymous said...

WHAT A FUCKING DAY FOR NEWS!!!!!!! :)


Bend homeless camp in town, not just the woods

KTVZ - Amy Easley - ‎5 hours ago‎
"Cluster camps," as they are known, are popping up all over Central Oregon, and not just at the edge of town. Most are within feet of businesses and ...

The Bend Bulletin recognizes that Bend being the #2 toxic wasteland in the US begs the Great Nigger to bring 'cargo' to Bend ASAP.

Anonymous said...

lastly, .. Bend recognized for what it is, ... a little town where even the 'professionals' are cheap criminals, ...

The high rate of back surgeries in Bend
Bend Bulletin - Betsy Q. Cliff - ‎Jun 18, 2009‎
The high number of back surgeries is an open secret in Central Oregon's medical community. When The Bulletin contacted Bend's seven spine surgeons, ...

Anonymous said...

I was there with my wife (who by the way is Asian).... I thought it could be you.

*

Was I staring at your wife? Did I have a hard-on?? Then it be me.

Sorry, any more white woman just make me puke.

Sorry marge.

Anonymous said...

HBM Said...

Mormon literature advises young men on how to "cure" themselves of the "sin" of masturbation. For real. Look it up.

...........................

You can trust HBM on this one. If there's anyone I know that would have spent the time to research the masturbation habits of young Mormon boys, it'd be he.

The guy used to cut a hole (a very small hole) in the bottom of a paper grocery bag, fill it with candy, put his hard little worm through it, and go to town on All Hallows' Eve. Can you say Uncle Perv?

hbm said...

"“Bend Living was about Bend’s emergence into 24-7, go-go-go, irresponsible construction and people living beyond their means,” Mr. Max said."

Interesting -- Mr. Max now denounces the very things his magazine promoted and celebrated.

hbm said...

Last night watched "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" on my DVR. It's amazing how the rise and fall of Enron prefigured the rise and fall of the entire Bush/Republican bubble/Ponzi scheme economy: First deregulation, then looting and pillaging on a wholesale scale, and finally collapse.

Every kid in high school should be required to watch this movie in history class and learn its lesson: When businessmen clamor for "deregulation" it just means they want new ways to pick your pocket.

Anonymous said...

>> Interesting -- Mr. Max now denounces the very things his magazine promoted and celebrated.

Yes, biggest load of shit I've seen in a while. He was a core contributor.

Anonymous said...

It was Cutter's magazine.

tim said...

"Interesting -- Mr. Max now denounces the very things his magazine promoted and celebrated."

That's called "being flexible."

tim said...

'Every kid in high school should be required to watch this movie in history class and learn its lesson: When businessmen clamor for "deregulation" it just means they want new ways to pick your pocket.'

Deregulation is not a panacea, but it's also not universally disastrous. And it's been embraced by Democratic administrations as well as Republican ones.

The deregulation I'm most familiar with is in the trucking industry. Before deregulation, trucking companies were given routes (in ways that often smacked of Chicago or New York corruption and nepotism). The system was incredibly wasteful (including of fuel), and there was no incentive to bring in information systems to increase efficiency. Trucks often moved with barely anything in them.

So I'd agree that what happened with Enron was pathological and even criminal, but I don't think we should swing one way or the other. I think we should stake out a middle ground of sensible regulation.

I'd view anyone especially zealous about either regulation or deregulation as equally dangerous.

Anonymous said...

Today Oregon broke our old record of unemployment.
If the exodus of jobs keeps up, pretty soon Bend can replace all stoplights, with stop signs.
Won't be enough traffic to bother with.

Anonymous said...

I am new to Bend.

Please explain what a
"calibanger" is?

hbm said...

"I think we should stake out a middle ground of sensible regulation."

Well, of course I agree. What I'm arguing against is the right-wing dogma that regulation is always wrong and "the market" is always right -- i.e., businesses should be free to do whatever they like in all cases. That dogma led to the Enron fiasco and ultimately to the collapse of the whole economy -- as it had done before.

Anonymous said...

A calibanger is someone who hangs out at Drake Park in bend, and is from California and eats geese shit. Don't even think about the dog-shit thats for the cops of Bend, who are also from Cali.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I am new to Bend.

Please explain what a
"calibanger" is?


-----------------------------

If you're new to Bend, you ARE a "calibanger."

hbm said...

"Please explain what a "calibanger" is?"

Anybody who came here from somewhere else and has more money than most of the locals and flaunts it. According to Bend folklore, all Calibangers drive flashy cars, have trophy wives with huge plastic tits and wear 12 pounds of gold chains on their hairy chests.

tim said...

Oregon not only set its unemployment record, it also had the largest hike in unemployment over the last year of any state. Only Michigan (of course) has a higher unemployment rate.

We're really working hard to catch them, though.

Anonymous said...

HBM you still got to tell about the 'hamster story' and if it will ever run or if it ran anywhere??
---

*

via tsweakly.com:

Steve Larsen: A Tragic Wakeup Call

Written by H. Bruce Miller
Friday, 19 June 2009
When a 39-year-old man dies suddenly of a heart attack, it’s shocking. When the man is a former professional bike racer and top-ranked endurance athlete, the shock is almost overwhelming. This kind of thing just shouldn't happen, we think.

But that apparently is what happened to Steve Larsen, who collapsed and died while training at a Bend school track on May 19. Results of an analysis of his heart performed at a Midwest lab showed that he had coronary artery disease – blockage of arteries that supply the heart.

Larsen hadn’t shown any obvious symptoms of heart disease before the fatal attack, although his brother said he had been experiencing shortness of breath while working out – a possible indication that his heart wasn’t getting enough blood.

The tragic death of the popular father of five should be a wakeup call for anybody who believes that being physically fit provides guaranteed protection against heart disease. No matter how many miles a day you train or how many triathlons you run, other factors such as diet, blood pressure and heredity are still important.

Regardless of their level of fitness, people should get their cholesterol and blood pressure checked on a regular basis and, if the numbers aren’t good, take appropriate measures to improve them. For somebody who has a family history of heart disease or other risk factors, getting a coronary calcium scan also might not be a bad idea. The test, which reveals deposits of calcium in coronary arteries, is painless, non-invasive and fairly inexpensive.

Also, the National Cholesterol Education Program has published a brief on-line test to help people check their heart attack risk.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the:
Steve Larsen: A Tragic Wakeup Call
story, I did like the hamster one better.

But sometimes you gotten to have a bit more respect for the dead and their family and friends.

RIP Steve Larsen.

Anonymous said...

"Do you think a guy that has 14 kids is really sexually suppressed?"

All that proves is that he screwed his wife at least 14 times without using contraception.

No, actually, all that proves is that SOMEONE screwed his wife at least 14 times without using contraception. Maybe even a turkey baster.

Anonymous said...

For a Princeton man you are down to earth, HBM. Very good.

A joke I learned long ago . . .


On his first day at Princeton a freshman asked an upperclassman "Where is the library at?".

The snobby upperclassman answered, "At Princeton, we don't end our sentences with a preposition."

The freshman then retorted, "Where is the library at, asshole"?



I thought that was kind of funny.

Anonymous said...

I've been hearing lots of news about G5 search marketing in Bend. They are growing and hiring new employees. They also claim to pay family wages. They have ad on craigslist for a Marketing Analyst anyone know what these so called family wages really are? Also they prefer a college degree, not require, so that leads me to believe it can’t be that much.

Bewert said...

Re: While I don't know you, I know your type.

####

I'm sure you do. Just trying to build stuff, and when I hit too big of headwinds I look for a draft.

####

Re:
While I may or may not agree with that statement the fact you bailed and then come back with the comment is a bit unbecoming. I met you a couple times at City Council meetings. Thought about introducing myself but you came across as a clown...

####

LB, between the NY Times article, the homeless camp stuff, and the forthcoming Deschutes UE number on Monday, on top of the 12.4% for Oregon as a whole from last week, Bend is in a tough spot.

And the JR management board is still intent on spending $50M on Cooley/97 as of May 19.

Building to success, or something.

It's kind of funny to read about the angst about 5.4% UE here. Surreal, almost. They even had a big article in the Trib this week about alternatives that laid off folks have found.

####

LB, I am a clown. It's my camouflage, in a way. I wish I was somebody out of an Ayn Rand novel, but being the youngest, littlest, and usually smartest kid in class from 4 years old on meant buying into cover of some sort. Self preservation. I'll never be a John James.

Just the way it is.

Still wish you had said hi, though. I get a bit more serious in private.

####

I'll fade out, that's inevitable. I'm gone, so my interest is much lower.

But this sort of pissing rock is rare even on the Net. So I end up coming back every so often.

Plus, I do like Bend. Just wish it would get it's shit together. But maybe that's a lost cause, as Buster so often states.

In the end, I just couldn't handle seeing all the panhandler's whenever I left the house. Bend's the only place I've been where they are so prevalent. The raw acceptance of them just looked hopeless in the long run.

Several somebodies with signs begging for food and money next to the Porsche/Audi dealership at 3rd and Reed Market was just jarring. I went by them every trip to Freddie's...

OK, this is much too long. Later.

LavaBear said...

>>>Still wish you had said hi, though. I get a bit more serious in private.

Don't worry about it Bruce...I'm not one of the Bruce haters. Actually I slept better at night knowing there was a clown going to all of the city council meetings getting all up in their shit. Best yet he was our clown. I enjoyed your updates on the stupid shit going on downtown.

I'll never have your passion for the subject but I was glad to know someone did. And I guess you being a tone deaf motherfucker about many issues helps you in what you do. I'm sure I'd rather ski deep powp pow or have a cold beer with you than read about the micro butt plug and horrors in Gaza that you would post over and over and fucking over. But don't change this world needs more clowns. No wait...aren't clowns what got us into this mess?

Anonymous said...

"Don't worry about it Bruce...I'm not one of the Bruce haters."
===

Dude, the real Bruce haters were the ones who remained silent and left him to hang himself. Buster, and others who wasted their breath trying to scream some sense into him, they were not Bruce haters. They wasted too much emotional capital on him to be called haters. Fools, maybe. Idiots, really. But haters? Nahh.


"Actually I slept better at night knowing there was a clown going to all of the city council meetings getting all up in their shit. Best yet he was our clown. I enjoyed your updates on the stupid shit going on downtown."

===

I look to results, more than words, promises, and more words followed by more promises.

Speaking of, how is the manifesto coming Bruce? The Exec Session 100page document, that ultimately got shrunk down to just a complaint about not following proceedures for notification of when the Exec Sessions would occure, that complaint, how is that coming?

Anonymous said...

Is everybody in bend brain dead?
If you don't like it here,LEAVE!

Anonymous said...

"If you don't like it here,LEAVE!"

Don't have enough money to leave anymore.

hbm said...

"If you don't like it here,LEAVE!"

If only it was that simple.

"In the end, I just couldn't handle seeing all the panhandler's whenever I left the house. Bend's the only place I've been where they are so prevalent."

Haven't ever been to a big city, obviously.

Anonymous said...

Haven't ever been to a big city, obviously.

no doubt, that's been an every day sight in any metro area for since the 80's

I find it hard to believe that SLC is panhandler free

The reason you see then all the time in Bend is because there are only some many good begging spots and there are plenty of folks who are hurting.

Having lived in every major metro area on the west coast, I can tell you that this is and has been the norm for a long time.

Anonymous said...

http://www.city-data.com/forum/salt-lake-city-area/163466-major-homeless-problem-slc.html

Anonymous said...

Masturbation -- The true History (www meds45 com)
Reaal untouchhed magazine cover

*

I got this junk mail today, and it just so reminded me of this group.

Anonymous said...

all Calibangers drive flashy cars, have trophy wives

*

Hey wait a minute, I have 'trophy wives', but I keep them in Malaysia, wouldn't fuck thing of 'flaunting' them in Bend, besides they don't like the cold.

Flashy cars, were made to be 'keyed'.

Yes big plastic tits totally cali, when St-Charles aint' doing un-necessary surgery they're augmenting.

What came first Bend or Cali??

Anonymous said...

Fucking shit, panhandlers have been begging in Bend forever.

Just wait for it to get warm this summer, they'll be camping all over town, and living in the streets downtown.

Like I have said, I don't even go downtown much lately, even deschutes is too fucking depressing with everybody out of work, and begging for painting or dry-wall jobs.

hbm said...

"Hey wait a minute, I have 'trophy wives', but I keep them in Malaysia"

One of Buster's trophy wives:

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/28/93904934_735be98928.jpg?v=0

hbm said...

"Just wait for it to get warm this summer"

That should happen sometime around mid-August.

Anonymous said...

Thanks HBM, that's what I had in mind, about August summer begin, and about September it end, a lot like Anchorage.
:)

Anonymous said...

Well at least my trophy wives ain't got fake boobs, and don't wear make-up, and ain't over 35, ...

They're still beautiful to me, ... I'll see if I can find a jungle bunny that looks like one of mine,...

I wouldn't fuck a 'bend trophy wife' with homer or BP's dick.

Anonymous said...

http://www.alternativeculture.com/travel/seagypsies/family.jpg

No my style but here's one for you boyz about 14 with two kids, ...

I like them beautiful and about 30, but the background is fairly typical of my housing situation.

Anonymous said...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_v4wGGJssKO0/SHmHxPXbklI/AAAAAAAAAMg/LPFkC0RPYpg/s320/Malay+Girls+Murah.jpg

Let's add 'bend girls' to this post, and let some hard dollars come to Bend, ... come on guys pack your daughters to vietnam.

Anonymous said...

how does someone sell 1/5 of a townhouse? see MLS# 2905611

tim said...

Aren't there tons of those timeshares on the MLS?

Anonymous said...

Hey Marge, thanks for bringing up memories of the Kopper kitchen. I was a night cook there in 74 & saw lots of action, but nobody ever brings up TJ's as that is where the action was. Also at the Palace when the Kozak brothers from New York bought the place & removed all of the pool tables. I had never seen such hate from the locals to out of towners as what was delivered to them. I barflyed from 70 thru 82 and had the best times going to every place in town five nights a week and seeing the diverse crowd that were loyal to a particular bar. Good ol days.