[Message removed for violating bulletin board rules]

Interesting post over on BendBB this past week. Yet another comment by someone that began a chain of events all to familiar:

Smart Creative Solutions said:

What could be smarter or more creative than loaning yourself millions of your clients dollars?

bendbb said:

If you have evidence that someone illegally loaned themselves millions of client dollars give that information to the authorities, but if not I need to remind folks that the public record information posted in this topic doesn't prove any wrongdoing. There may be an innocent explanation for Summit Accommodators's "liquidity problem" so let's wait and see what develops rather than posting innuendos.

Earlier in the thread St Paddy had posted from the County Clerks office this:

TYPE: Deed of Trust / Mortgage CONSIDERATION: $5,000,000 DATE REC: 9/22/2008 8:52:58 AM

DIRECT: NEUMAN, MARK A INDIRECT: INLAND CAPITAL CORP
DIRECT: NEUMAN, JANICE L

SUBDIVISION: AWBREY BUTTE HOMESITES PHASE SEVENTEEN LOT: 22 BLOCK: 6
SUBDIVISION: AWBREY BUTTE HOMESITES PHASE 30 LOT: 7
SUBDIVISION: HIGHLANDS AT BROKEN TOP PHASE 2 LOT: 36

So when bendbb tells people to stop posting "innuendo", there's already a fair bit of PROOF that the principals of Inland & Summit are on the grift. They've already removed $10MM in commingled funds. And so it begins:

Smart Creative Solutions said:

Hold on there Mr. Internet Policeman-- I didn't say it was illegal. As a matter of fact 1031 accommodaters are totally unregulated so there is nothing illegal to report to the authorities.

It is a matter of public record, not innuendo, that both of the principals of Summit Accomodators loaned themselves five million dollars from their company recently and that the security for these "loans" have an RMV that is a fraction of the "loan" amount--smart and creative.

bendbb said:

I'm glad to hear you don't think it was illegal, but your post explicitly said they loaned themselves millions of "clients dollars". That's innuendo, and that needs to stop.
Guest said: Oh pleeeease --there is no innuendo that needs to be stopped. It is undisputed that these loans were made by Island Capitol, the company whose sole purpose was to hold "clients dollars".

On their website they confirm these"clients dollars" are missing

Currently, there are significant funds in the exchange fund accounts maintained by SAI. However, the balances are less than the total amount of all currently open exchanges for Summit Customers.

This isn't an alleged incident--it really happened--the clients money isn't reportedly gone, it is gone.

Panda said:

bendbb you need to put the brakes on. I don't see how any of this discussion crosses any lines. People are offering their opinions as to what is going on here. They have a right, perhaps even an obligation to do that, as there is something very amiss here.

I've had personal dealings with some of these principals and I'd be very worried if I had money in their company.

Panda hits the heart of it right here. I'll put to you that at the heart of any thought suppression is SELFISHNESS. Not caring about anyone but yourself. It's how dictators operate, it's how BendBB operates.

I can offer IRREFUATBLE (rhetorical) proof: If BendB was one of Summit Accomodators clients, and had, AT THIS MOMENT, a transaction that he could not complete because of the CURRENT LIQUIDITY ISSUES, that he'd be about as far away as he could be from his current stance:

"Let's presume INNOCENCE of these grifters despite the fact that we have UTTER PROOF that they have VICIOUSLY VIOLATED THEIR FIDUCIARY DUTIES. No, no. Let's give them another chance. Let's see if they CAN WORK IT OUT. They've DIVERTED $10MM+ to themselves, thencly leaving an untold number of people in the Bernie MADE-OFF-TYPE Lurch of not being able to BUY ANYTHING. Yes. The CORRECT thing to do is GIVE THEM MORE TIME WITH OUR MONEY."

But maybe IHTBYB is Too Cynical? Maybe bendbb is protecting people FROM THEMSELVES. He wll permit No Evil against these Reputable 1031 Exchangers:

Freddi said:

[Message removed for violating bulletin board rules]

Guest said:

[Message removed for violating bulletin board rules]

St Paddy said:

[Message removed for violating bulletin board rules]

Freddi said (again):

[Message removed for violating bulletin board rules]

Then St Paddy posts something I used to exclaim on a regular basis when posting on BendBB, something that hasn't happened in over a year:

WTF did I violate?

bendbb said:

I don't keep track of removed messages. Don't take it personally.

Great thing about this, is there is no one who knows WTF St Paddy even wrote. It's all gone. No personal arbitration of truth, only bendbb's idea of What Truth Is. And so it degenerates into Parsing Every Word so as not to be called LIAR:

Hypothetically Speaking said:
How about if we say hypothetically; In a hypothetical situation like that, could people voice their opinion?
bendbb said:

Hypothetical situations are fine as long as they don't morph into thinly veiled allegations about real people.

Ah yes, there's nothing like a spritzer of Oblique Language to put a spring in your step!

"Thinly veiled accusations"? Really?

So, the posting on the county clerks office Just Doesn't Hold Enough Water? Did you go along with If It Doesn't Fit You Must Acquit? I mean, WTF do you need?

Thickly veiled Hypothesis said:

Thanks for that ruling.

To thicken up the veil, how about if we say the town was in Ohio, and that it was 2 astronauts that stiffed their 1031 customers?

Perfect. If this CAN'T possibly indict the character of any of bendbb's Possible Associates in Bend, can we actually have a conversation about it? PLEASE?

Then the sarcasm starts, because people can't believe they're being Shut Down for Stating The Incredibly Obvious:

Queen said:

I can't figure out if you're being sarcastic or if you live in a parallel universe where what these guys did is something less than reprehensible.

The most obscene part of this is they are characterizing the the 10 million dollars they made off with as an investment.

From their site;
The current amount owing from Inland to SAI is approximately $13,706,557.21. The existing real estate investments will be made available to repay the loan balance and satisfy claims,

The security for these 2 five million dollar "investments" that were both made 9/22/08 are third trust deeds on houses that were already seriously underwater.

The second most obscene part of this is that were it not for these 2 "loans" and the opulent livestyle the principals treated themselves to, no customer would have lost any money.


Bendbb; this is not innuendo-- I'm not insinuating these guys are scoundrels, I'm coming right out and saying it.

Guest said:

I'm being very sarcastic with more than a hint of criticism for the way bendbb handled this entire thread.

bendbb said:

So maybe I should make like BEM and moderate messages *before* they're posted -- is that what you want?

My vision for the bulletin board is to keep it focused on issues, not on people or personalities. I don't understand why you find it necessary to call people names like "scoundrels". Can't you find another way to express your opinions without name calling?

You BASTARDS! Besmirching BendBB with your flagrant use of terms like SCOUNDRELS! Jeebus would roll over in his GRAVE!

bearishly happy said:

bendbb.

It seems like you have a bit of a tin ear for rumor. I know you got the Cessna guy to deal with (Cessna closing tomorrow!) and other scurrilous rumors, but not all rumors are false, either. I'm not sure why you and RDC feel it necessary to be apologists for obvious bad dealings. Scoundrels is the least word I would use.

Guest said:

bendbb you're really showing your colors on this thread. Do you have some skin in the game or some other association with people at this firm? Your continual chastising of people throughout this thread, at the risk of being being censored, has been childish and petty.

BINGO!

Guest said:

So here's another hypothetical.

I call you and say, "I'm new to Bend, and I need to invest in a 1031. I hear your'e the expert, here. What do you think of Summit?"

Do you say nothing?

bendbb said:

I ask you, "How did you get my number?"

Considering that Summit has filed for bankruptcy and isn't accepting new 1031 customers your hypothetical seems a little far-fetched, but maybe that's true of most hypotheticals.

Ohhhhhhh.... there it is. "THAT'S TRUE OF MOST HYPOTHETICALS"

Uh huh. Commenters held BELOW CONTEMPT.

"You know what, I run this fucking board, and I'm not going to have the FUCKING DECENCY to even put forth a useful answer. And I am going to ASSUME THE BEST about a bunch of thieving FUCK STICKS and continue deleting posts as I see fit. AND BEST OF ALL, I am going to make THE 100% COMPLETE ASSININE statement that MOST HYPOTHETICALS ARE FAR-FETCHED. And no. I will OFFER NO PROOF. It's true BECAUSE I FUCKING SAID SO!"

Guest said:

Of course you refer them to Summit, that is if you use the same reasoning processes as bendbb-- He has read their website where they confess to relieving their customers of 14 million dollars, but notwithstanding this admission, he sees no wrongdoing.

Exactly. Do you realize bendbb that people are INCARCERATED EVERY FUCKING DAY WITHOUT EVIDENCE. They are given their day in court, BUT FIRST THEY ARE ARRESTED ON SUSPICION OF GUILT. NO PROOF. Just suspicion. ALMOST EVERY PERSON IN JAIL WAS ARRESTED ON SUSPICION, BUT NO PROOF.

And what do we have with Summit? My God, the evidence is OVER-FUCKING-WHELMING... but bendbb doesn't have the critical thinking skills God gave a fucking rock, to realize his commenters have PILED UP THE SUSPICION PRETTY FUCKING HIGH, and probably have the RIGHT to make... wait for it:

INNUENDO.

Yeah. These SUmmit fuckers are as guilty as Hitler in my book. This is FRAUD, and ALL BUT THE SENTENCING is fucking DONE. WTF else do you need? A fucking video where they are sitting around LAUGHING DIABOLICALLY ABOUT COMMITTING FRAUD?

Well, apparently the answer over on BendBB is "YES".

Guest said:

Poor clients....
Gotta do an exchange within 180 days to avoid paying taxes.
Unable to close exchange within 180 days because the money's gone.
Taxes now due. No money to pay them because... the money's gone.

bendbb! ALERT! DANGER, DANGER!

My God, this person is IMPLYING INNUENDO THAT THE MONEY IS GONE! AHHHH! INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN GUILTY! Where are you bendbb? HELP US!!!

Guest said:

If you're the victim of a fraud it really helps you on taxes. This was discussed several places recently due to the Madoff case.

Whew! Glad to hear about The Vast Upside of Summit's FRAUD.

Guest said:

Quote:

As a long time reader and a poster a few times, I am in complete agreement with BB admin, If it's not the truth at the time of posting it is only an opinion.

Apparently you and bendbb just aren't getting it.

Does anyone ever know the Truth? Or the facts?

Even when you think you've got Truth in a chokehold it gets away.

I think the complaint is that unless bendbb knows for certain something is true (read above) he accuses everyone of spreading misinformation. If he's in a sour mood he deletes stuff.

Which begs the question "How would you ever become enlightened if you weren't first willing to contemplate facts that you might not be certain of at the time?"

Perhaps the funniest part of this whole debate is this board is edited as though its got the readership of the WSJ. But that's Bend. Everyone thinks they are a BSD.

I like hanging out in smoky dark rooms to get the dirt, then I can follow up and figure out whether or not what I've read here is probable or not.

You shut off that spigot and this board becomes worthless. I've watched over-zealous moderators do that time and time again. Pity. I think its happening here also.

I like this guy. But not everyone did.

bendbb said:

If you think this bulletin board is over-zealously moderated feel free to go somewhere else because it's unlikely that the moderation is going to change.

At this point, I'd suggest you go over to BendBB just to read the posting by "Deep Throat" on page 11 of this thread. I'd give a URL, but since bendbb has admitted many times to IP harvesting, I can only give a description of where to go. Deep Throat posts a pretty lengthy and informative comment regarding the Summit mess.

And luckily this debate is nicely sewn up.

Not Deepthroat said:

[message removed for violating bulletin board rules]

See, if you ARE someone WHO HAS ACTUAL real-World knowledge about the Summit-Inland FRAUD, you actually CANNOT post it over on BendBB. Why? Because it will immediately be deleted as INNUENDO.

bendbb, bless his gristly heart, is one of a Vast Number Of Deluded Dumbfuck Who Thinks: This Is Bend, AND EVERYONE IN BEND IS A CUT ABOVE THE REST. EVERYONE. I am a cut above. I am Better.

We're told this EVERY FUCKING DAY by the POLLYANNA BULLETIN.

"No, no. That business is NOT BAD. It's run by Bendites, so THAT IS NOT POSSIBLE. There can't be any FRAUD in Bend, because NOTHING BAD HAS EVER OCCURED IN BEND. THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE TRYING TO FUCK US ALL IN THE ASS, THEN KILL US. They are The Dissenters. THEY DO NOT think Bend Is Special. You MUST NEVER LISTEN TO THEM. EVER! Now Let Us Go Forth To Jonestown, where we might all partake in a glorious LIFE ENHANCING KOOL FLUID..."

Ahhhhh cults. They systematically try to rob you of your ability to THINK. Because if YOU ACTUALLY KNEW THE TRUTH, they would LOSE ALL POWER OVER YOU. Have no doubt, BEND IS A CULT.

And it is RUN by Real Estate. And this story is about a HIGH PRIEST of the Cult of Bend making off with MILLIONS, mind you they have ADMITTED IT and There Is No Doubt, and bendbb and every other Bend Media Outlet is True To Form, and STILL LEAVING OPEN TO QUESTION whether they are worthy of our suspicion.

Even having to THINK FOR 1 MICROSECOND about that, is indicative of CULT-THINK. OF COURSE THEY SHOULD BE ARRESTED UNDER SUSPICION OF GUILT, RIGHT NOW. WTF, indeed.

OK, MINDLESS FUCKING CULT-FUELED CENSORSHIP aside, this Summit thing is a HUGE STORY. We've seen ReMax go down. There have been untold boutique mortgage shops & realtors & builders already bite the dust. We've even seen suicides.

But Summit, like ReMax is LARGE. Now the CIRCUMSTANCES are totally different. ReMax just bled out & died, cuz RE is over in this town.

Summit is PHASE II of the shutdowns. The ENRONS of The Bend RE Collapse has begun. Yeah, this is the Clusterfuck Black Hole Phase where the tide has gone out & The Big Boys are starting to be exposed for what they are. FRAUDSTERS.

Bend RE is The Largest Ponzi Scheme FRAUD on the West Coast. We're penny-anti shit, so I wouldn't want to say The Biggest In The US, or anything. But as PER CAPITA FRAUD GOES, this town is at The Top Of The Pile.

Have no illusions, this place is DOOMED. Why? Because when you CANNOT TRUST the intermediaries & the principals, you CANNOT DO BUSINESS. People will not give WHAT MONEY THEY HAVE, to ANYONE. This town is like a GIANT WashMu branch right before the SEIZURE: People will begin BAILING LIKE MAD, JUST TO GET ANYTHING OUT OF THIS FRAUD-RIDDEN SHITHOLE.

Our motherfucking newspaper is ON LAND GIVEN TO THEM BY The Biggest Developer In Town. WTF?

OK, I'll wrap this up. On a lighter note. Did anyone notice there was no "What's Going Up" section in the paper yesterday? At least not in the website of bendbulletin.com. The week before it was a picture of The Administrative BARN for the Sunriver Stables. THAT is What's Going Up. A barn. And not a big barn. A small barn.

RIP "Whta's Going Up". You did manage to go out on a high note.

Oh right... and file this under Not Everything Is As It Seems. Dunc filed a post, Why Open Now? He talks about Gottschalks, and some supplier problems and such. But here's the problem:

GOTT, 3yr chart

This company is about to go BUST. This company has lost almost 99% of it's value, and that is ALMOST ALWAYS a harbinger for DOOM.

I expect a BK on GOTT very soon, within a month probably.

GOTT & Summit illustrate ONE SINGLE TRUTH in times like these: Things are NOT as they seem. Bend Bulletin EXPOUNDED on the UNPARRELLELED ATTRACTIVENESS of Bend for setting up shop, by using GOTT's opening a store in THESE TRYING TIMES.

Uh huh. And I suppose Mark Neumans 8,000+ sf mansion is PROOF that Summit is on FIRM FINANCIAL FOOTING.

We've seen time & TIME AGAIN, that This Time It Is Different. THIS FINANCIAL COLLAPSE is a different breed. We've had 30 years built on phantom income built on credit card & home equity INCOME. This country is largely built on a base that DOES NOT EXIST. OK, NOT EVERYTHING in the US Economy is a PHANTOM, but far more than anyone ever thought possible IS.

We're seeing WHOLE TOWNS and whole areas that were completely sidestepped by the bubble runup, and are now doing "fine". Look at Harney & Grant counties for high relief illustrations of this. These communities experienced BARELY A BLIP whether up or down in the past 10 years.

But then there are places like Bend. Contrary to the 0% Exposure of places like Burns, we are Almost Entirely Dependent On Bubble Economics.

Burns, strangely enough is The Wal Mart of The Bust, doing Quite Well Thank You. But Bend is The Office Max, Gottschalks, KB Toys, Circuit City of the bust All Rolled Into One. We doubled, tripled, and then QUADRUPLED down on REd.

We are so ridiculously quadruple beta-positive on RE, that we will NEVER RECOVER. And note, 18 months ago I made similar statements and was chided as a Clap Board Lunatic.

But this town will NEVER RECOVER. The tide is going out like NEVER IN HISTORY, and the Summit's of Bend are being exposed. Folks, it AIN'T FRAUD UNTIL YOU GET EXPOSED. Go ask Bernie MADE OFF. And the motherfucking tide is GOING OUT.

You will NOT BELIEVE the damage that will be done. Medians at $120K doesn't really fully encapsulate it. $120K medians will happen for a reason. It'll be due to FEAR, FRAUD, and FIDUCIARY ASS FUCKING. People will be SCREWED en masse in Bend.

And I mean WORSE than we have been. Look at our Elected City Council.

This place is 100% DOOMED. And if YOU STAY HERE, or BUY A HOME HERE, you deserve everything you get, including being 100% MADE-OFF'd by Bend's FRAUD-RIDDEN RE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.

Bend will only be worth buying once the Emporers Clothes have been proven to be NON-EXISTANT in a court of law, and The Kingdom HAS BURNED. This place will be AWASH in vacancies, both residential & commercial.

There will be a time to Buy In Bend, but that time will NOT BE FOR AT LEAST A DECADE. ALL THE FRAUD WILL NEED TO BE WASHED OUT. All the SCOUNDRELS will have to be THROWN OUT OF OFFICE. We will have to be cleansed, and that isn't even close to happening, if anything our elected slate of Councilors further delays the timeline to recovery. Probably 5-10 years, yet again.

We're fucked. Bend is FUCKED.

Failure Nation

It's really sort of amazing what is happening in this country today.

We've had a credit-fueled boom of consumerism these past 30 years or so. Just borrowing from the future to enjoy today. Not a horrible thing, until it goes overboard, which it did.

So to fuel the boom, we've built out excess capacity. An enormous amount. Just a ridiculous amount in consumer banking, and Bend is exactly where it should be in this regard, Far Behind The Times. People are still building banks in Bend. They're still building Everything in Bend.

This is exactly what the auto bailout is about: Taxpayer subsidizing of Excess Capacity. Keep It Alive, Keep It Going.

We don't need it, and No One Can Afford The Products, The Horrible Management, or the Incredible Union Greed, but KEEP IT ALIVE, No Matter What.

We, as taxpayers, are actually being force-fed failure-laden bailouts. We will soon bailout everything. Airlines are probably next. The only thing that won't get bailed out will be companies & industries that don't WANT it.

So what is the upshot? We are expending BILLIONS, probably trillions, to keep excess capacity alive & well. Producing millions of cars we cannot afford and DO NOT WANT. Trillions are being thrown into bank coffers to get us to borrow, but strangely, nobody is.

When it comes down to it, we borrowed to the hilt from the future, and now we can't repay. Everybody borrowed. GM borrowed to build plants. Banks, ironically, borrowed to buy mortgages, and were enriched per transaction. Individuals borrowed and bought the only asset that possibly could have absorbed this much lending capacity, homes, by the millions.

We have too much of almost everything, and we can't make the payments to keep it. Can't pay it off. So "we" have gone to the government & asked for trillions. Well, the banks are getting it. GM, Ford & Chrysler are getting it. Defaulting borrowers are "trying" to get it via Fannie & Freddie's moratorium on foreclosures.

In other words, Idiots Are Getting Rich and The Responsible & Prudent Are Funding It. Nice.

So what's going to happen? Well, I suppose in the ordinary scheme of things, if you are demanding quantity X of something, and producers are putting out 2X, prices will fall. Right? But falling prices brings on failure, which we are of course, vigorously trying to avoid. So we Have To keep prices artificially high.

So US Taxpayers are in the uncomfortable position of not just subsidizing current production that we do not want & can't afford, but owing well over $10 TRILLION dollars in future earnings to pay off government debts as well. And we will somehow have to keep prices HIGH to avoid failure.

So our money is simply funneled to bank presidents. To union bosses. To government bureaucrats. To every FAILURE in this country.

The More succesful you are, the MORE You Are Penalized. The LESS successful you are, the MORE You Are Rewarded.

And THE BIGGEST FAILURES are actually holding out for the Most:

‘UAW bailout’

It is a mistake to use part of the $700-billion rescue package to reward high-tax, non-right-to-work states such as Michigan, says Peter Flaherty, President of the National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC).

“The automaker bailout is actually a UAW bailout,” Flaherty said. “The union will not allow companies to deploy capital in ways that the market would dictate, such as closing plants and layoffs.”

Under Frank’s legislation, car companies receiving bailout money would face tougher restrictions on executive pay and dividends to their shareholders, the A.P. reported.

NLPC says the UAW wants additional taxpayer money to enrich health and retirement plans it controls. Indeed, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger has urged Congress to act immediately to provide a separate, additional $25 billion in loans so auto companies can meet their health care obligations to more than 780,000 retirees and dependents.

Awesome. The UAW will, HOPEFULLY, finally kill The Golden Goose. They are the 600lb suckerfish on the 20lb gristle-laden near-death automakers ass. I HOPE TO GOD they kill it. Because that is truly what the auto-bailout is: UAW payoff. We are paying big fat tubs of shit $90/hr to do NOTHING. Heard of JOB BANKS?

UAW is The Most Corrupt Bunch Of Greedy Fucks On Earth. Followed By Auto CEO's. There are actually thousands of non-union auto-workers, and extended industry workers, several of whom I Know, who think these two groups deserve each other, and deserve extinction. Even though it would probably threaten their own job. MOST of lower Michigan OPPOSES the bailouts.

What the hell is going to happen? We're paying TRILLIONS to keep alive capacity, predominantly Credit Capacity, that No One Can Pay For Anymore. Even 800FICO's aren't getting money.

Well, I can see a few things happening: Corporate ROI going to 0% or below. We are simply funneling money into products no one wants. Profit is simply (Unit Volume X Price) - Costs. And we are witnessing imploding volumes and prices, while Costs are being kept as high as they ever were. So I see permanent lowering of ROI as long as the Bailout Regime holds.

FAILURE Must Be Be Allowed To Take It's Course.

We are becoming Socialists Speculators. Our Government, is actually putting us into the auto and banking industries via EQUITY holdings. Believe me, they will SOON have us in the housing market. The government will soon start taking over HUGE housing developments. It'll happen.

Innovation Lost. Failure is a CLEANSING PROCESS. Failure MUST happen, or necrosis sets in. We are subsidizing FAILURE, and keeping alive the Dead.

War. We, or someone else, will be at WAR soon.

In China, anger rises as economy falls
The crisis in global capitalism has spelled trouble for the Chinese Communist Party, confronted by public unrest as factories shed workers and investments collapse.

By Barbara Demick

December 12, 2008

Reporting from Beijing — The signs of discontent are small but unnerving in an authoritarian country where public demonstrations are not permitted.

Laid-off toy company workers smash windows and computers and overturn police cars in Guangdong province. Employees of a liquor company in Harbin travel to their company's Beijing headquarters to demand back wages. Taxi drivers, as many as 20,000 of them, scuffle with police in protests that have spread into seven provinces.

Even the police have gotten into the act. Auxiliary officers surrounded a Communist Party office last week in Hunan province to demand higher wages, said the Hong Kong-based Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy.

As China's economy hits the skids, such protests have been sporadic and usually involved fewer than 100 people. But in recent weeks, they have cropped up across the country like brush fires.

"Definitely, this is the most serious problem we have seen since 1989," said Zhou Xiaozheng, a professor of sociology at People's University in Beijing. "You have millions of college students who can't find jobs. . . . You have migrant workers who have lost their jobs at factories and don't have land to go back to."

It is counterintuitive that a global financial crisis that started with the excesses of Wall Street should be undermining the Chinese Communist Party. But academics such as Zhou believe that the economic crisis could present the leadership with its biggest political challenge since the student protests at Tiananmen Square nearly two decades ago.

To a large extent, China's fiscal problems pale next to those of the United States. The unemployment rate is not expected to top 4.5%, compared with the current 6.5% in the U.S. Although the World Bank recently slashed China's growth forecast for next year to 7.5% from more than 9%, even the lower figure keeps it at the top of the pack.

The problem is that ordinary growth might not be enough for a system that's been sustained by double-digit gains over the last five years. New York University economist Nouriel Roubini predicted last month in a widely quoted newsletter that without 9% to 10% growth, China is headed for a "hard landing."

Security in growth

It is the conventional wisdom that Communist Party rule has survived into the 21st century because of the nation's extraordinary economic growth. China watchers often speak of an implicit bargain between the people and the party: Give up demands for democracy and free speech and we'll make you rich.

"I think the leaders are scared stiff," said Susan Shirk, a professor at UC San Diego. "Certainly the Chinese Communist Party leadership believes there is a connection between economic growth, social stability and the survival of one-party rule."

Even members of the intelligentsia have become more vocal, demanding political change in a petition released this week that was modeled after the 1977 one that challenged the Soviet Union's domination of Czechoslovakia. "In the world, authoritarian systems are approaching the dusk of their endings," says the document, signed by more than 300 prominent people.

What makes the government especially vulnerable is that the people hurting financially have few legitimate outlets to air grievances. Unable to vote out their leaders, strike or collect compensation from the courts, they protest. And when the police wade in, things can quickly turn violent.

That's what happened Nov. 25 after 1,000 workers were laid off from the Kai Da toy factory in Dongguan, a southeastern city often called the real-life Santa's workshop because of the toys manufactured there.

As one former worker, a 36-year-old mechanic who agreed to be quoted by his surname, Zhong, describes it: A group of workers was in discussions with management about termination pay when a dispute broke out. "We saw the police beating five workers with sticks, several of them unconscious. . . . Then many workers rushed out and surrounded them. Later there were thousands of people there. They smashed police cars, doors and computers."

The economic downturn is hitting hardest in places like Dongguan, where factories once churned out toys, shoes and clothing to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demand of American consumers. Now demand has plunged because of the U.S. recession and the scandals over tainted foods and dangerous toys produced in China.

The Chinese government reported Wednesday that last month, for the first time in seven years, exports declined. In the toy industry alone, figures from the General Administration of Customs showed that half of the 3,631 companies had gone under this year.

Almost all of the workers who are losing their jobs are migrants who may not have any place to return to.

Zhong and his wife, who is seven months pregnant, came from an area in Sichuan province that suffered heavy damage during the May earthquake. "We are just wandering around now looking for work," Zhong said.

Fears of instability

This floating population of the unemployed and desperate is one of the government's nightmares.

"The redistribution of wealth through theft and robbery could dramatically increase, and menaces to social stability will grow," Zhou Tianyong, an economist for a government think tank, said in an editorial last week in the China Economic Times.

But it is not only the migrants who can turn unruly.

Young professionals trashed the showroom of a real estate complex called Glamorous City in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, after learning that the developer was offering a 25% discount to prospective buyers of units they had paid full price for.

Middle-class Chinese are relative novices when it comes to investing, unaccustomed to the risks of real estate or the stock market -- and quick to blame the government when what they thought could only go up instead goes down.

The anger was palpable at a Beijing stock brokerage where investors sat on a row of orange plastic chairs, sipping tea from jars they'd brought from home and watching the latest indignities flashing on the electronic board of stock prices.

" Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao did nothing to help," snapped one man in a voice that cut through the background clatter and made the others -- unaccustomed to hearing gripes against China's president and premier spoken so loudly -- turn around to hush him. ("Don't tell the foreigner too much about what's happening in China," hissed a woman sitting behind him.)

The 53-year-old man, who gave his name as Lao Yang, or "old Yang," agreed to lower his voice and the conversation continued. He lost seven years' worth of savings from his job at a machine components factory, which is now closed.

Others with him shared his fury -- retired factory workers, homemakers, a former post office clerk, all had lost large portions of their savings playing the stock market and felt the government had betrayed the laobaixing, the common people, by not protecting them.

"Some people lost everything in the stock market. They sold their homes and borrowed money," said Xiong Huanyong, 66, a retired post office worker. "They think there should have been more regulations."

A basic structural problem in the Chinese economy is that wages and living standards have not kept pace with the extraordinary growth. As a result, consumers aren't prosperous enough to pick up the slack and keep the economy rolling in the face of reduced demand from the United States and Europe.

The Chinese government has lowered interest rates several times, and last month announced a $586-billion stimulus package. More moves are predicted, but economists doubt their effectiveness.

"The government's economic policy is still geared to producing high growth figures, but not to producing jobs or raising people's disposable income," said Mao Yushi, a prominent Chinese economist.

Shirk, of UCSD, believes that protests will accelerate as workers realize such actions can help them get what they want. For example, the laid-off workers at Kai Da received severance of about $900 each after their protest.

But Shirk thinks the government will be able to manage the crisis as long as protests remain localized and the nation's leadership remains united.

"They learned their lesson from the Tiananmen period," she said. "As long as they can prevent public splits, throw the ringleaders of the protests in jail, blame the problems on local officials, they can probably hang together."

Something's going to give in Asia. All has been well for the past 20-30 years, even with Tiananmen, because the Commies Have Delivered. But no more. There's about 1.4 billion pissed off motherfuckers over there, and not nearly enough thugs to hold them off. That country is a powder-keg.

China, India, Pakistan. That area is going to explode. Everyone of those fuckers has NUKES. And don't forget RUSSIA, who will do ALL IN THEIR POWER to foment anti-American sentiment. Or really, PRO-OIL sentiment.

The Bursting Bubble now goes FAR beyond American Housing. RUSSIAN OIL is collapsing. Chinese production capacity is imploding. Pakkie's are terrorizing India. And India is RICH & THEY GOT NUKES. There's going to be a FUCKING WAR.

Plan Folks. Plan. This crazy fucking blog has been beating the drums for TWO YEARS. "BEANS, BULLETS, BOOZE, BULLION". DO NOT for a second think that can't happen. Don't think for 1 second you can't be relegated to GROWING YOUR OWN FOOD. And SHOOTING YOUR FUCKING NEIGHBOR TO KEEP THEM FROM TAKING YOUR SHIT. EVEN WHILE YOU ARE STEALING THEIR SHIT!

The recent local rash of shootings, robberies, and assaults is NOT a statistical oddity. People are getting desperate. Unemployment EXPLODED in Deschutes County over the past year. And it's going to get far, FAR worse. This fucking place will be a war zone before it's over. Instead of reading about someone getting shot, YOU'LL KNOW SOMEONE who Got Shot.

So what's the solution to the Armaggedon Scenario? Actually Armeggedon IS THE SOLUTION. Got too many factories? Too much productive capacity? Too many unemployed?

There's One Very Effective Solution: WAR.

War tears shit up, right quick. War kills motherfuckers who would otherwise be robbing you. War will put people back in Chinese, Indian, and Pakkie factories. At least until they are nuked.

We are going to war soon. What do the RICH WORRY ABOUT? That's right, KEEPING WHAT THEY GOT. And India & China have watched the money pile up over the past few decades, and that shit is threatened now. Don't underestimate the retaliation of a well-funded country.

And what do WE do? Well, if we DO NOT side with China, we're fucking doomed. We OWE THEM $1 TRILLION, at least. In many respects, China runs this 2 bit shithole already. Who will they go after? India? Japan? Fuck, who knows. But it'll be US against THEM. And whoever THEM is, they have been our "Allies" for a long time.

Some whacked shit is going to happen. Government-owned EVERYTHING. Including your house, maybe. A tax-rate hike is coming that'll probably kill another 10-20% of this countries small businesses. And not just Federal. All the way down the line.

Hunker down, Folks. The Big One is coming. War. Depression. Suicide. Remember your 4 B's. Stock Up And Lock Down.

This is Going To Get So Much Worse Than You Thought Possible.