Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Unbiased Sisters Citizen Explains Away Affordability Problem.

In the May 16 CBN, we find an opinion piece penned by one Eric Dolson of Sisters. The title, "Affordability: Does It Exist?" The title should be enough to warn you that something strange is happening. And you'd be right.

"Hey now! This is just a concerned and unbiased citizen trying to clarify a murky issue!". Well, OK. If you consider the fact that Dolson is editor of The Nugget, the Sisters newspaper, and he is published without reference to this fact in CBN.

I debated whether to go with "Whithering Attack On Sisters Moron", or a kinder and gentler, "Logic Errors, How You Can Avoid Them And Not Look Like An Idiot". I've decided to go with the latter, just because sometimes you have to mix it up a little.

First, Dolson states:

I am not sure how to address the "affordability" problem. It may not exist as such. It may be a problem we have defined into existence.... My point is by naming something, we sometimes think we have explained it, when actually all we have done is give it a name, or defined it into existence.

I know. Even cursory brain cells unneeded for day to day life can be used to skewer this little piece of nuttiness. We have somehow OBSERVED high home prices into existence. Funny that despite much observation in previous decades, Bend didn't suffer from this problem. It gets worse.

Let's pretend for a moment that instead of addressing the "affordability" issue, we should turn it inside out, like a reversible jacket. Let's say we are addressing the "wealth" issue.
So now you say that too many people in Central Oregon have too much money. Because of this, they are bidding up the price of land and houses, which makes it too difficult for too many of the rest of us to live here in the way we would like to, or the way that we used to before all these wealthy people moved here from San Francisco or Seattle and started spending all this money. We need to make sure that no one who moves here will spend more than $150,000 for a home.
See how easy it is to define a problem into existence?

It really is comical! I have a first grader who I think could see the almost idiotic logic errors that abound in these few short sentences. First, "too many people in Central Oregon have too much money", then all of a sudden nobody has any money, except people from San Fran & Seattle. That's how to really discredit an argument, make up assumptions that you immediately violate. Moving on:


Or perhaps instead of an "affordability" issue, we have a "wage" issue. perhaps we need to pay more for each job category. So instead of charging us $2.25 for a latte, Starbucks needs to charge $2.75 and put the other $.50 into wages so their employees can afford to live here.
By claiming they can't do that, that we have an affordability issue here in Central Oregon, you are actually asking me to subsidize Starbucks. Frankly, they can afford it more than I can.

See! Right when you're expecting yet another Straw Man attack, he mixes it up with an almost incomprehensible Red Herring. I just saw a Simpsons, where Homer just goes on a mindless bender, much like Dolson:

Homer: Look Marge, you don't know what it's like - I'm the one out there every day putting his ass on the line. And I'm not out of order! You're out of order! The whole freaking system is out of order! You want the truth? You want the truth? You can't handle the truth! 'Cause when you reach over and put your hand into a pile of goo that was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do!! Forget it Marge, it's Chinatown!!!


Welp, there's more, but let's end the Dolson whomping, where he basically digs his own grave with every person from Topeka or St Louis. He basically starts out saying that comparing a Chevy & a BMW, is like comparing Topeka and Bend. Then he says that if both autos were similarly priced, we'd all be destroyed, so obviously the same is true for the towns:


The demand would always outstrip the supply, which will also remove a constraint to growth. That's when solutions to "affordability" become an agenda for uncontrolled growth, an agenda that will result in a host of other problems that are related, such as building schools, roads, finding adequate water supply, pollution, and eventually we all should have stayed in Topeka.

I looked in my book, The Art And Science of Logic, but found no entry for Just Plain Dumb. I actually had to re-read this paragraph several times. The words don't make sense. Solving the affordability.... (Ooops.... almost forgot the quotes! Otherwise it could be REAL!), I mean "affordability" issue means you have an AGENDA. And only people like Hitler, Moussolini, and George Bush have an AGENDA. Dolson seems to equate building schools and roads with genocide and racial cleansing.

This is just a plain weird diatribe, by someone who has more than a little interest in the subject. Pamela Hulse Andrews isn't exactly bound by law to disclose that Dolson runs the only paper in Sisters, but it seems like she should have. It sounds like a "civvy" is saying All Is Well there. When really Dolson's main revenue stream is Realtor advertising, something that cannot be all that healthy given the fact that aggregate dollar volume sold in Sisters has almost been cut in half from last year.

This is just another variation on the Bend Media Sleeze-O-Thon. Hulse Andrews runs a paper, Dolson runs a paper, so how's about "we team up, and shovel more crap down readers throats?". And so we must endure Dolson's weak-ass attempts to cram bullshit down our throats. His final thoughts?


In fact, a lack of "affordability" might actually just be a symptom, not the disease. Just like a runny nose can be hay fever or the flu, you have to be careful in how you treat it. Or recognize that the body is taking care of itself, and there is really nothing to do.

So "Affordability" is the sympom, not The Disease? OK, so what's the disease?

Is it AIDS?
Is the disease AIDS?
Is it fuckin' AIDS!
Oh shit, it's AIDS!

Oh shit, I moved to Bend, bought a house, and got the FUCKIN' AIDS!

OK, I'm better now.

Well, I just know if I got the freakin AIDS, that I ain't gonna do nothin'. I'm glad Dolson ain't my Doctor. Or Realtor. Or gay lover in charge of giving me my Gat Dang AIDS medicine. I will so give him The AIDS if he doesn't watch his mouth....

So, there we have it: Publisher subterfuge as yet another method for reporting on the RE bubble.
Our Media Heads Conclusions on "Affordability"?

  • We only have it, because we've observed & acknowledged it.
  • We all have too much money, wait... we don't have any money.
  • Stop committing hate crimes Hitler, you have an AGENDA.
  • Do nothing.
  • If you don't shut the hell up about the affordability problem Central Oregon, I will be forced to give Eric Dolson The AIDS.

68 comments:

Anonymous said...

My name is pedro I work in the sisters. I just come from Tijuana. I don't want no AIDS. Is the AIDS in the AIR??

Please adivse I work the dishes at Sister Hotel. Will I get the AIDS??

Anonymous said...

No worries pedro, bendbust will take care of you, he is after all a friend of the mexicans. It is all whitey's fault that you crossed the border in the first place and then contracted aids. See according to bendbust you shouldn't have started doing construction work since there are so many queers in that field that's probably where you contracted aids to begin with, you should've stuck to doing the dishes.

Anonymous said...

AIDS??? Oh there are a lot of people in Bend with AIDS. It's just a little different strain. It's called "Financial AIDS". And just like regular AIDS, a lot of people are infected and they don't even know it yet. But they will!! It's a slow painful path to financial ruin. Watching your real estate value decline as you drop your selling price only to find that the market is already lower than your drop (of course you won't know that until you have to drop again.....) Convincing yourself of the imminent real estate rebound... Renting your house until the "market turns". Ultimately selling for a loss or losing your property to foreclosure. Unfortunatley because you're one of the new "real estate geniuses", you haven't been those even one real estate cycle before and your don't know how to treat your "disease". AIDS??? Oh yeah, there's AIDS in Bend!

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure who these people are you're grilling, I just know this blog is funny as hell. I copy/paste/email to my office mates.

AIDS and the housing bubble. Who knew they had so much in common?

tom said...

I read that CBN piece. At the time I thought nothing of it. I generally bought the guys argument.

Now that I know he's the publisher of a paper, and read his comments with some critical thinking, it's easy to see this is just another media boondoggle.

Why is this being done? I understand that these rags benefit, but that argument applies to all local papers. Central Oregon seems to bring this out of its publishers. Everyone of them feels the need to overstate how great it is here. That is just so strange.

Anonymous said...

I'm a housing bubble blog aficionado near Boston, and this one is one of the best. Most are just stale regurgitating of facts, or just rants about whose fault it is.

This one is actually entertaining, well written, and funny as hell! I get more good ideas and insights from this one blog than I do anywhere else.

Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

Bend is a strange place. We are in the beginning stages of an epic real estate down turn, and most people here are completely unaware. I can't blame them because if you listen to all the news outlets in Central Oregon, thing are a "little slow" but we will soon turn a corner. The reality is going to be a lot uglier.

Anonymous said...

Wow, readers from Boston. Muuuuhaha, yes Paul, the plan is coming together. First Bend, and then the world!!!!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I have generally left Dolson alone because he does at times, report on the sleazy underbelly of what having incredibly high homes prices does.

This piece made me:

A) Lose some respect for the guy
B) Question his editorial ethics
C) Wonder about his mental competence.

Sisters will be the white-hot epicenter for the RE implosion that will happen here. There is nary a job that pays over minimum wage. There is an onslaught of illegal aliens & special needs children into the schools, neither of which public schools are able to deal with. There is sleaze just about everywhere; school funding graft, inbreeding amongst city & school officials, almost every deal is a "wink & a nod" handshake deal between buddies to ripoff taxpayors, pathological developers that never are held to account.

If you want to see Boss Hog-dom at its finest, go to Sisters. Influence peddling, self-dealing, graft, corruption... all a part of daily life in that town.

Add to all this the fact that Sisters is largely made up of wildly overpriced rural properties, the market for which has gone ice cold. Dollar volume for homes on lots has almost been cut in two, and Sisters is practically populated by nothing but Realtors. These are the ONLY people who have made it in that town... FOR DECADES. No one in Sisters makes any money except Realtors, and a very few retailers. There is going to be a per capita hit to income in that town. The richest people have had their income cut in half.

I counted 67 Realtors ads in the most recent Nugget. There are probably 3-4X that many. With all the attendant ancillary RE service providers, well over half that town derives it's income from the RE trade, if not more. This little town will be destroyed by the bubble bursting, more than anywhere I can think of.

Anonymous said...

We need to make sure that no one who moves here will spend more than $150,000 for a home. - Dolson

***

I think Dolson's wish will come true.

Given that there are only candy shop jobs, retail, subway in Sisters. My guess is that the average wage is about $32k/yr. That said using the 4X rule affordable Sister's housing should be about $128k, close enough to Dolson's wish.

Just wait until this time next year, by then folks will have been bleeding in Sister's for 2-3 years. Taking the advice of your realtor just rent out your speculation home, well 2-3 years of that and now you have a home that shows real nice.

Sister's is great if you like cotton-candy, quilts, or Rodeo Art, otherwise its just another ghost town that you would want to drive through and not stop.

For the past twenty years the few Realty shops in Sisters have been SMUG as hell.

I suggest over the new month or so we all stop by Coldwell, or whatever you wish and say "I'm looking for a $150k home, Dolson sent me". If there's two of you in a car going through town, and one gets out and stops at all he/she will beat the driver of the car through town during tourist season on foot.

The funny thing about Sisters is nobody stops, they just drive through, but the city fathers { dolson } have figured out how to optimize traffic flow to less than 5mph, thus granny with a walker beats a semi through town.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We are in the beginning stages of an epic real estate down turn, and most people here are completely unaware.

Damn, you too? My wife & I talk to people, and there is this look of confusion that comes over their face when you mention there might be trouble brewing in the RE industry. Invariably, they shrug, say everything seems to be "growing", and that they are seeing new developments started everyday. And most actually think homes have gone up 20-25% in the past year! Really!

Then there is the other half who are aware that things have slowed, but they are just biding their time, waiting to see what happens. Many of them seem to think that the rubbish put out by Bend Media cannot be biased, and so they also believe it'll All Work Out.

And then there's you people. Edge case nuts who poke voodoo dolls of Randy Sebastian in the eye with red-hot needles, spread rumors of radon gas & dry rot at foreclosures, and generally cheering the destruction of Bends RE industry. I love you crazy bastards!

Anonymous said...

No worries pedro, ... It is all whitey's fault that you crossed the border in the first place and then contracted aids. See according to bendbust you shouldn't have started doing construction work since there are so many queers in that field that's probably where you contracted aids. - whitey

-----------------------------------

From Pedro: To: Whitey Cc: Senor Paul

My esteemed whitey I have much respect for the gringo, he make my life much better than mexico. If you knew anything about the latin workforce in USA, you would know that 3% goto AG, 30% go to construction, and 65% go to service. I'm part of service, I have only worked kitchens while in USA ( we say OOSAH ).
Back home in Tijuana it would take me a month to make what I can make at Sister's Hotel in one day. I very grateful to the gringo. I have no AIDS, reading the post of Senor Paul I assumed that all in the Sister's had AIDS. Thus my inquiry.
I have no desire to work construction in Bend or Central-Oregon, and certainly don't want to play batman-robin with Gringo Contractor.
I went to University of Mexico City and majored in economics, but there are no jobs near my home of Tijuana. I cannot feed my family for what I make in Mexico. In Sister's I make very good money, and send most home to my family.

Sisters is very interesting most gringo's are retired, in Central Oregon speak that means they flip real estate. That business seems to be on the decline. In Sisters we have front-end, and back-end. We mexicans work the back-end, and white kids from Lapine work the front-end. I would say that un-employment for the mexican is zero, and I don't know any older gringo with a job, thus I would say that un-employment for gringo here to be 100%.

I love the Gringo.

sincerely, yours Pedro

Adhor said...

I know if I had a blog this popular, I'd put AdSense on it so fast. 105 comments! This is probably one of the top trafficked blogs in Oregon. It's definitely one of the most quoted in the Bend blogosphere.

Anonymous said...

My voodoo doll giggles when my dog bites his butt. He has the cutest little gold jacket that says century 21. I just wish late at night he wouldn't talk to me. All he ever says is, "it's a great time to buy".

Anonymous said...

I know if I had a blog this popular, I'd put AdSense on it so fast. 105 comments! This is probably one of the top trafficked blogs in Oregon. It's definitely one of the most quoted in the Bend blogosphere. - GetRichQuick

*

Paul, Please don't commercialize your work. Sure you can put on adsense, but then you would start focussing on all the nickels you were making. Instead of this site you would be at adsense.google.com hourly checking if you had 99 cents 66 cents in your cash account. Don't do it, too many people on the NET see content as just a way to lead folks to ads. Besides you know if you did add adsense our content would just draw realtor-ad's, and they themselves have ZERO content, thus nobody in this forum would ever click on them, so you still wouldn't even make coffee money.

Whether its get rich quick on Bend, or get rich quick on the internet, all these folks are the same. Please don't let your self get sucked into their game.

If you start spending your life chasing nickels you will become one of them, and they're not a pretty site.

BENDBUST said...

Are You Moving or Staying.

Well it didn't take BendBB long he's now deleting my content. Earlier this year he had blocked my IP, I couldn't even read the site to see how pathetic it was.

What is it with this guy?

My most recent article posted that he deleted was entitled "Moving or staying". I offered technical real estate help, uhauls, and whatever for free to any californian that would leave bend, and he deleted this for violating bulletin-board rules!

I don't know why he re-enabled my IP, I suspect he wasn't getting any postings. He win's I'll stay away from his site for awhile. He reminds me of duncan's site, very thin skin, no sense of humor, and a complete fear of the Bend establishment. Niether of them are part of the establishment, the door will never be open to them, so what do they fear?

In summary when you selectively disable IP's, and generously delete objectionable content what you end up with is a BIG ZERO.

What is the point?

Anonymous said...

"If you start spending your life chasing nickels you will become one of them, and they're not a pretty site."

They, however, will be providing more and more entertainment with the passage of time.

Anonymous said...

Bend builders not worried about huge slowdown in building permits

BENDBUST said...

What's making me uncomfortable is the bashing of Mexicans, which is sometimes coded as "Californians." To me, blaming Californicators has always been a bit of a joke. - duncan

**

The above is from duncan's posting as of today. First of all he doesn't allow posting, so you cannot argue his point. His point however is illiterate. It shows that he has NOT read anything, that he is re-defining everything and reducing it to classical racist arguments. Strawman logic in order to destroy the messenger.

Ok, here we go ...

1.) Nobody has bashed mexicans, had duncan bothered to read the post he would know that I have he deepest respect for hispanic people. They are the backbone of central oregon.

2.) A californian 'white-trash' folk has been defined as the get-rich-quick mercedes driving type, that is ONLY in bend to make a buck, pave our beautiful city, and go somewhere else to do the same. If the shoe fits duncan, then I can see why he doesn't like the denigration.

3.) NO WHERE has anyone in any of these forums associated the mexican with the californian. The Californian, or Californicator as I call them are only here to get rich quick and move on. The mexican is here to feed his family, whom are starving down in mexico. What part of this difference does duncan not see?

4.) If 'californians'is a pseudonym for 'mexicans' that is duncans racism, as I have never heard such a thing.

5.) One the things that folks like me paul don't do is wishy-washy talk, we say what we mean. Duncan says that 'sometimes' californian means mexican. That kind of logic is like "sometime mexican means jew". I have been waiting that one, this is where weak minded duncan is leading us.

6.) From the very beginning, I have been clear on the denigration. It is targeted towards those who are destroying Central-Oregon, and the mexican is NOT to blame. I blame the californians who I call the 'goblins', and they know who they are.

7.) I have clearly divided ALL into two camps that I call hobbits and goblins. Hobbits are slow folk that love to fish, have a brew, and love central oregon. Goblins are money grubbing parasites, and I now know for sure that duncan is one of the latter and is covering his arse.

8.) "blaming californians is a bit of a joke" - Holy shit, I think duncan has finally put on his thinking cap, one of the only reason I like paul's site is that he's funnier than hell, and I try to do the same. We have to make a joke out of all this. The only way we can ever effect the Goblins is to shame them, and thus its critical that we make an entire joke of the bend-bubble.


In summary if duncan had balls he would quit blocking his site, and I could-would post the above on his site.

love, peace, ...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

An Inventory Update:

2,343 Today
2,320 last Friday
2,280 the Monday before that

+63 listings in 9 days.

May's Days of Inventory numbers should be brutal. It was 10 months in April.

Every single day, a new inventory record.

Duncan McGeary said...

Krusty,

I don't block my site, only edit. As long as you don't post the entire contents of your blog on mine, which I think is rude, you're welcome to comment.

Anonymous said...

"If you start spending your life chasing nickels you will become one of them, and they're not a pretty site."

"They", however, will be providing more and more entertainment with the passage of time.

Soon a nickel in Bend will get you a paper, a coffee or beer, hell it might even get you a meal.

Duncan McGeary said...

Let me rephrase that. I don't 'edit', but I do screen messages; unless the content is completely inappropriate, I post all comments.

I would have been glad to respond to your message above.

Duncan McGeary said...

As to your message.

I see the bashing of Californians. The bashing of Mexicans.

Bend has a serious real estate bubble, and it's important that the message get out there.

It's a shame that the credibility of that message is getting diluted.

BENDBUST said...

Krusty,

I don't block my site, only edit. As long as you don't post the entire contents of your blog on mine, which I think is rude, you're welcome to comment.

Ed Flanders,

.....................................

Dear Mr. Flanders,

Sorry to hear that you had been imprisoned in the latest Simpsons Movie. I support you, and firmly believe that Lisa made up entire sodomy story.

How are the kids? The wife doesn't believe lisa does she?? The Church? Is baby Jeezus and Dubya still talking to you while you pray? Is baby jeezus still going to give the californians more of a 'grace' period so they can get out of dodge with a shirt and a car??

Let me understand, you don't censor post's on your site, you haven't banned anonymous postings, and you don't moderate anything that you find offensive to yourself??

I highly suggest that both YOU and bendbb open up your site, just like paul does and let the good word flow.

My site bendbubble.blogspot.com is wide open, if you find something offensive just ignore it.

sincerley, Krusty

{ Do I have to be Krusty, I see myself as a Bart, please Ned let me be bart }

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Quietly, long term rates are at multi-month highs, up 11% to 5% yields from 4.5% in December. This pushes up the cost of buying a home by around 6%. Conversely, with steady incomes, it reduces a home buyers purchasing power by 6%.

BENDBUST said...

I see the bashing of Californians. The bashing of Mexicans.

Bend has a serious real estate bubble, and it's important that the message get out there.

It's a shame that the credibility of that message is getting diluted. - ned flanders

.....................................

Again, we change the subject, the introduction of mexicans to the debate was on two levels.

1.) That the mexicans purchase the shit shacks in madra, and redmond, that allowed the whole central oregon boat to rise.

2.) That as the wealth of Bend collapses, more Mexicans will be used to get work done, we call this econ 101.

Introducing items 1&2 to the debate is NOT dillution. After interviewing dozens of builders during the past month, #1 was an issue that came up over & over about what allowed the perfect storm in central oregon. Here it goes ...

1.) Mexicans came in and got subprime loans and bought shit-shacks, note NOBODY would have ever bought the shit shacks, ONLY the mexicans had the ambition to turn them into nice homes. The willingness towards extended living makes the purchase 'pencil' for them.

2.) This allowed the white-trash in the shit-shacks to buy mcMansions in the hillside's of Bend with subprime loans. Note a mcMansion is a 3,000 sqft house, a totally irrational purchase, not a home, a gamble

3.) The white-trash that sold their shack for 200k-300K, and bought a 500k mcMansion did so with a IO,HELOC, stated-income subprime loan.

4.) Now the whole house-of-cards is coming down, and there's NO way in hell to create a market for the mcMansions, I sure in the hell would never buy one, they're all built to last ten years.

Now what part of the above is DILLUTION? Is truth Dillution ned?

I have long taken you for a nitwit, just from the diatribe you post, but dillution? It's like you'll do anything to change the subject, in effect "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"

Ned normally I have semi-infinite patience, but if you keep trying to bring in a new straw dog, I'll not play your game. Now its been ..

1.) Don't mention californians, because they're a codeword for mexicans
2.) Don't mention mexicans, because they're a means to achieve dillution in the debate.

Get with ned, list ALL your straw-dogs up front, rather than having to introduce new ones daily,


Bart,

p.s. stay away from my sister,

Anonymous said...

"Quietly, long term rates are at multi-month highs, up 11% to 5% yields from 4.5% in December. This pushes up the cost of buying a home by around 6%. Conversely, with steady incomes, it reduces a home buyers purchasing power by 6%."

Given that over 80% of all loans sold in Oregon, were Interest-Only, nuttin down, and variable-rate, these slow painful increase's in monthly payments, in a place where mtg revenue and closing settlements has evaporated is not a good thing.

Not a good combo, to have declining income, and rising debt,

The HELOC's are what keep Bend afloat, which is why nobody can drop the prices, this is a foreclosure squeeze on a colossal scale


Note that the last time this happened FDR I think gave everybody cheap loans so they could keep their house. In this climate I personally think the whole thing is-was planned for a perfect storm.

a.) Across the nation, debtors can now be imprisoned
b.) Bankruptcy is phased out, which means that walking is not an option.

A&B mean two things, that prison camps will be built to house the debtors, and many folks and there children will never again be able to purchase a home in their lifetimes.

I don't see a FDR bailout coming from this political aristocracy, surely president Billary [ cheney in drag ] isn't going to mess up the wall-st-plan, note these wolves are wringing there hands waiting for all these HELOCS to reset to 20%, and no elected official is going stop this.

Enough for now,

Bend Economy Man said...

I agree with Bendbust's point, if I understand him right.

It's the same thing a lot of people say - but with a twist.

The party line in The Bulletin and on KTVZ is that Bend's RE market is being supported by newcomers. RICH newcomers. They come in and buy the $700K homes and think it's a bargain compared to where they came from.

What Bendbust is saying is also that Bend's RE market is supported by newcomers - POOR, WORKING newcomers, who are willing to get a crazy loan to overpay for the crappy houses at the BOTTOM of the RE market that then allows everyone to rise up a level.

But what that really means to me is that it's not a "thanks to the Mexicans" RE market, but a "thanks to banks" RE market for looking the other way if a loan applicant is a noncitizen, doesn't have the income to cover his mortgage payment without help, lives in the house with 15 other people and so on. Because I don't think the Mexicans have much to lose in this situation.

If you are an undocumented immigrant making a low wage and need to live in crowded conditions in order to make the housing situation "pencil out," as Bendbust put it, buying a house with a don't-ask-don't-tell mortgage is the way to go. See, if you don't speak English and you try to rent an apartment in Bend, it's not easy. If you try to pack 12 foreign people into a 2-bedroom apartment anywhere in Central Oregon, the white methhead neighbors might complain or even get violent, the cops might come by, you might be evicted.

But if you BUY a house, then you can live wherever you want, however you want. As long as you pay the mortgage, it's practically impossible to get you out of there. So, regardless of the "American Dream" aspect of owning a home, there's the practical side that it's simply an easier housing option than renting - perversely, nowadays they ask fewer questions when you BUY a house than when you RENT.

Anonymous said...

Yo Paul,

Did you see Boise, shall we call it Bend's big brother with over 8,000 homes for sale, yes you saw that correctly 8,000 thosand jeepers. I can definitely see 3,000 in Bend's future and the sad fact is all the builders with blinders on that keep building and every time a new home goes up it lowers the value for all trying to sell and the inventory increases.

Lots of baby boomers made good dough in the dot com boom but I think the housing crash might just negate a lot of their paper wealth or put them in the poor house, pardon the pun :-)

Anonymous said...

You know what, BendBust? At least Duncan posts his name for all to know, and everyone knows where he works and what he does. How about you? What's your name? Who do you work for? So keep spewing your hate and posting your tiresome crap about hobbits and goblins, but have the balls to put a name to it.

Anonymous said...

You gotta love good ol Sisters they have been fleecing the tourists and anyone dumb enough to stop into that little carnie town which seems to hawk tee-shirts, cotton candy and cowboy wear as I believe others have mentioned.

I can't wait for the day that the state builds a bypass around that little crap hole. Sisters has the collective attitude of that of Broken Top, which if you ask me sucks I can't wait to watch that town implode.

I had a good friend who lived out in Tollgate and he would always state how Sisters is a big clique funny thing is they believe they are better than any other town in C.O. I don't know about better but I would say more delusional.

Anonymous said...

CACB 1st quarter report is out.

The problems in the Bank of the Cascades loan portfolio are snowballing.

From Jesse Felder's blog:

"From September 30 to December 31, 2006, [BOTC's] non-performing assets (delinquent loans) grew from $1.8 million to $3.0 million. In the latest quarter ending March 31, 2007, NPA ballooned again to $7.7 million. This is an annualized growth rate percentage in the thousands."

Bend Economy Man said...

I calculated the annualized percentage rate growth of BOTC bad loans using the Dallas Fed's annualization formula.

An increase from $3M to $7.7M in one quarter annualizes out to 4,240%

BENDBUST said...

Les Schwab Handoff "Planned in Detail"
by Mike Rogoway

Portland, Oregon - Oregonian May 23, 2007

The new bossman of LS Dick Borgman yesterday spoke for the first time since Les Schwab passed away last friday.

First of all, he's "moving LS Headquarters to someplace near Bend", imagine that, who would have ever guessed. My guess is that the power's that BE, had a big pow-wow ALL this past weekend, BIG.

Secondly he announced "a commitment to running the business the way the namesake did." If there was ever a statement that said absolutely nothing its this one. You note he didn't say I'm going to run LS like LS did, he said the 'namesake'.

"The best way to ensure continuation of those principals { note he'll never say what they are }, is for the family to retain ownership"

"The biggest problem I have is this ownership issue, and making it conducive to LS" In other words I don't care what the family thinks, they're just the owners, I'm going to be telling how LS would have done things, and we're not selling the company until I say so. { All offers will seriously be reviewed }.

Now the best part a local Crook County Judge is going to be running the whole show name Scott Cooper. The judge say's "We're going to take it slow, anyone looking for fast change will be dissapointed", again what the judge is saying to the family is no matter how bad you want to sell this business and get on with your life, the folks that run Crook and Deschutes county's have their own plans.

[ County Judge Scott R. Cooper (Crook County, OR), Scott R. Cooper began serving his term on the State Housing Council in July 2004. Since January 2001, he has served as County Judge of Crook County
"From my personal interaction with the Governor Kulongski , I can tell you that he deserves kudos as someone who works tirelessly every day of every week for Oregonians," said Crook County Judge Scott Cooper. "I traveled with him overseas to bring jobs to Oregon, and I saw how hard he works."
http://www.tedforgov.com/2006/10/oregonians_from.html
]

There you have it Cooper is Governor Kulongowki's right hand man, how can this Cooper a 'judge' have time for the housing council, and be running all over the world looking for job's for Oregonians?? My humble opinion is that these politicians should spend more time in Oregon. Why in the hell is a judge looking in Afghanistan and Iraq for Oregonian Jobs? Why is someone involved in planning Oregon industry and housing calling the in with the distribution of the Schwab Estate?



Ok, here's what they're all saying, ..

1.) Bend Real Estate don't worry I'm moving HQ to bend and we'll be generating fluff for years to come about zillions of new jobs, end of the bend-bubble collapse.

2.) I'm committed to running the business as me and my handlers see fit, and the family is too, they'll all dance to my tune, as I'm in charge, and ownership is only a technical issue, that the works will work out.

3.) Nothing is going to happen fast, which means that the family will all have passed away themselves before they see any cash from the LS assets.

Then the Oregonian goes on to describe that all is well because the surviving family has all squirreled away millions of dollars in investments, and don't need LS money from the sale.

Then it gets better the experts come in and say, that in the best interest of the family the company should be sold, so that the family could have a trust setup so ALL Schwabs could be set for life, as I have said all along.

In my humble opinion you all are witnessing the biggest KLEPTOCRACY grab since the days of the railroad.

We're pretty much told that ...

1.) Ownership is just a complex issue that can resolved in time, my guess here is that the company, .i.e. will give the schwabs a few cents on the dollar for a company buyout enriching a few boss-hogs, and the family again get's cents on the dollar today.

2.) We all know the new management will run the company into the ground in the long time,

3.) If the Schwabs could sell today they would get top dollar, while the company is still in perfect shape, but then their would be no move to Bend, or the justification of the new I-305 fwy from the dalles to klam-falls,

4.) We're explicitly told by the experts it would be in the best interest of the family to sell at top of the market, but then again they're just owners, and issue that can be worked out in time.

In summary, this is what they'll do,

1.) New management will rob all the assets replacing them with IOU's.
2.) The family will be told the employees are buying out the company, but the hogs will get controlling stock, and the employees non-controlling stock.
3.) The family will be paid cents on the dollar for real assets,
4.) The hogs will sell everything they can for real dollars
5.) When there is nothing left to steal, the company will be sold as a marketing shell to the majors or more likely returned to the family based on a contractual failure to manage, but what is left of the company will be a mere shadow.

The best interest for the family would be to sell before a new management screws the company up and makes it worthless, the article concludes that the surviving family already has plenty of money.

All we have to do now is shutup and let management do what they do,"as generations pass family's often pull a company apart", we'll have none of that, we'll let you on the board, and you don't need anymore money, when we're good and ready to buy you out, we'll give you a few cents on the dollar, and then turn around and sell the company ourselves for big bucks.

Mark Hirschey of Univ of Kansas says that the best thing for the family is to sell, before the new management destroys the class culture. Wow tell me like it is "I'm from kansas", Hirschey suggests that the family turn the business ASAP over to Buffet, Sir Warren before the management terminally destroys what Buffet considers one of the best companys in America. Now there's an IDEA an all the smartest folks in Oregon didn't even see it, imagine that! So much for an Oregon education, if I were you I would send my spawn to Univ of Kansas.

Only in Oregon,

Personally I could care as none of this has anything to do with myself, that said I love Bend and I hate to see their 2030 plan of turning the area between Bend and Redmond into Detroit, Michigan, and I even more hate to thier I-305 fwy, which will turn all of central oregon into central california.

By the way they do have a plan, but they cannot tell you at this time. Its planned in detail, but anybody who wants to know anytime soon will be dissapointed. I'm not making any of this up, only in Oregon could this kind of heist get pulled off in broad daylight.

bendbubble.blogspot.com
Les Schwab Handoff "Planned in Detail"
May 2007

Joey in Sisters said...

Yeah, real estate in Sisie's is a huge joke. If anyone has watched the Nugget real estate ads for a couple weeks they'd see "New Listings" er..Um "relistings" from Fall '06. Nary a home is selling. Price reductions up the wazoo and homes on the market for months.

Feed your damn squirrels?!?! HELL, I'll shoot 'em then lowball offer you 50% for your 1,200 sqft cardboard "Bungalow" peice O crapage.

Anonymous said...

I think things are going to be worse than I initially thought they would be. Things are melting more and more quickly. Just heard Parr lumber laid off a bunch of folks, and Cascade garage door laid off everybody except the owners. Once things stop, a lot of people are gonna have to find somewhere else to go.

Anonymous said...

Lots of posts on craiglist under the "tools" section from framers to carpet installers trying to unload tools and equipment people are definitely getting pinched and unfortunately all these people needing work won't be reflected in the unemployment numbers because many are considered contract workers.

The economic impact of a slowing housing market which will turn into a crashing market has a far reaching effect and I fear we are just seeing the very tip of the iceberg so far.

I know a lot of RE clerks and Mortgage pushers made a pile of money the last few years but many of them were leveraged themselves in the RE market I just wonder how many months they can hold out before the blood starts to run.

BENDBUST said...

You know what, BendBust? At least Duncan posts his name for all to know, and everyone knows where he works and what he does. How about you? What's your name? Who do you work for? So keep spewing your hate and posting your tiresome crap about hobbits and goblins, but have the balls to put a name to it. - ned flanders

**

I have begged duncan { ned flanders } for a longtime, not to mix his business and politics. This is a terminally stupid practice. Like today where he's "shocked that bubble followers have diverse political opinions".

ALL businessmen know you don't mix business, and politics as you'll always piss off a customer. In todays environment you cannot afford to piss anyone off, so its always best if you want to be an muck-racker to be anonymous, Duncan is NOT a muck-racker he is a city-of-bend ass-kisser, so I guess it all works for him.

Duncan or Ned whatever his name is should have a public blog for his ego, and a political blog where he can say what he thinks, I have never seen him say what he thinks, he prefers to elucidate what he thinks others think. He has mentioned many times that he should run for office, so me thinks this stupidity is all calculated, e.g. he wants his name to be a household item, to me this is a sickness of the ego.

My belief is that anonymity is essential to saying what you think, and not pissing off your nieghbors like duncan who you know to be hypocrits.

In summary, duncan is in the comic-book biz, a discretionary biz that will be the first to go, when spending is cut, he depends on tourists like sisters depends on tourists to buy cotton candy. This is not a good business model. The fact that he is stupid enough to put his name and his business on his blog is pathetic, and can only be some kind of strange obsession with his ego, like he wants to be known, for his protecting Bend from the bubble-tormentors.

We all can do things as we wish, I still say Duncan has NO balls, and just because he's stupid enough to put his name and business on his blog is no proof he has balls.

This is just a BAD business practice, you don't see any other rational businessman in Bend doing this.

Duncans blog is simply a "dear diary" and why someone would want to publicly display their diary with their name it I find weird, real weird.

BENDBUST said...

Lots of posts on craiglist under the "tools" section from framers to carpet installers trying to unload tools and equipment people are definitely getting pinched and unfortunately all these people needing work won't be reflected in the unemployment numbers because many are considered contract workers.

**

That's interesting I'll check craigs and see if there is something I need.

I don't know if this has been discussed, but the sub's I know who are getting laid off in Bend are all subject to non-competition agreements they signed. Basically your out of work, and you cannot work for someone else for fear of being sued.

I guess the theory is-was the subs not take the customers from the general. All the sub's I know feel REAL bad about signing this shit.

Thus warning to ALL sub's, don't sign these doc's on new jobs, because then once they're finished with you your out of the game.

Now think about this for a minute, what if the generals were getting sub's to do a little work, just enough for a hungry guy to sign, and then the following week, say you gone, and by the way leave Bend because you can NO longer compete in this town.

I'm NOT making this shit up, and I know good guys that is happening too, right now.

Every sub I have talked with say's he's leaving thus I don't see they would sell their tools, that said they have told me they have sold ALL their toys, so perhaps this is the next phase where they start selling their tools

In summary watch out for these non-compete agreements that are being forced to be signed, and if anyone else has a comment I would like to hear. I know several nice guys in my hood, who have NO work, and cannot work in Bend because of signing these doc's, they have to drive to Redmond for work.

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgtpxBPYnvE

The above video is a foreshawdowing of what could happen here in utopia. If I were in management at local banks I would be hiring real-estate specialist right now that have a lot of experience in foreclosure properties because the banks are about to be thrust into real-estate whether they like it or not.

Anonymous said...

sub's I know who are getting laid off in Bend are all subject to non-competition agreements they signed.

Bendbust,
I don't know the exact documents that these guys signed but I can tell you that generally non-competes aren't worth the paper they are written on unless a certain employee has intellectual or patent information that is critical to ones business that if taken elsewhere could hurt said company. In a free market these are very hard to enforce. I for one genuinly hope the good subs that have been here in C.O. for a long time and arn't just here to fleece a buck out of the locals can hang on and endure the slow times to come until things pick back up.

I for one will be very careful as to who I hire for work on my place that is when I can afford to do it, I want to make sure I'm supporting guys that are deserving of the business.

BENDBUST said...

" don't know the exact documents that these guys signed but I can tell you that generally non-competes aren't worth the paper they are written on unless a certain employee has intellectual or patent information that is critical to ones business that if taken elsewhere could hurt said company. In a free market these are very hard to enforce."

---

Thanks for confirming my suspicion my friends are finish carpenters and they're terrified. I told them what you told them, not to worry that it costs lots of money to enforce these things.

They have a different attitude, which is they're barely making the house payment, and having to drive to Redmond and Powell Butte for remodel work, as there is nothing else. They cannot afford a lawyer, and all the buddy talk in the world doesn't make them stand-up to the previous employer.

These guys are just plain scared, I haven't seen the doc's either, in the coming weeks, I'll get a copy of one and post it, perhaps we can find loop-hole to educate everyone on how to void them.

These things make me suspicious, the only reason I can see for them is to get folks out of the market,

When a guy is worried about losing his house, and has to get up early to commute to powell-butte at todays cost of gas, and doesn't even have enough cash for a Hamms' afterwork he doesn't want to fight a lawyer. Especially when they have seen their hourly drop from $45 to $15 in six months.

When you think about it that could be what this is about, ol-hoss and boyz in the local game want to lock out those willing to work for $15 in town, and note we're NOT talking about latinos here I'm talking about middle age white guys with thirty years of experience in their trades.

If this shit continues we could see a war like you see back east where folks fuck each others job-sites if they don't approve of who your hiring.

Interesting times.

This is one more item paul should put on his list for the Bulletin to report on,

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

An increase from $3M to $7.7M in one quarter annualizes out to 4,240%

That sounds sustainable.

Although I got 4,340%. THAT probably isn't.

I didn't even think about the Warren Buffett/Les Schwab hookup. That would be beautiful.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ahhh crap! If forgot to minus 1. It IS 4,240%. So I guess we are on solid ground.

Anonymous said...

I didn't even think about the Warren Buffett/Les Schwab hookup

Paul can you ellaborate on this relationship a little I've never heard anything about LS and WB hookup.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If anyone has watched the Nugget real estate ads for a couple weeks they'd see "New Listings" er..Um "relistings" from Fall '06. Nary a home is selling. Price reductions up the wazoo and homes on the market for months.

Yup. And these new-re-listings are many times coming back on the market at prices 20-30% higher than last Fall, when they sat for 6-9 months w/o a looker.

Sisters is just a perfect storm for an RE implosion. No real industry or wages. A "Gods Chosen People" culture that precludes lowering prices... and by this, I mean REAL lowering... not 2% here & there. And a general abandonment of that sector of the market that Sisters is awash in: the vastly overpriced mini-ranch.

And Realtor wages down 44% over last years Q1. And the number of Realtors in Sisters is ridiculous. There is probably no other place that will suffer the backlash of the "Gods Chosen People" mindset than Sisters. It really is a town that is completely deluded by its own omniscience. They won't reduce enough, and sales (and Realtor commissions) will just go to zero.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Paul can you ellaborate on this relationship a little I've never heard anything about LS and WB hookup.

I don't have any particular insight, other than knowing than Buffett has talked about buying Les Schwab:

KU Business School
The skit humorously outlined a possible acquisition of Les Schwab Tire by Berkshire-Hathaway. In particular, the group focused on details such as superior service, a profit-sharing program, and customer loyalty. Buffett generously commented that if his company acquires Les Schwab within the year, each student in attendance would be given a Berkshire-Hathaway B share.

and more here:

After the presentation, the investment guru offered to give a B-share of his company, worth nearly $2,800, to each of the more than 100 students in attendance if he decides to buy Les Schwab Tires in the next year.

"I'd probably just frame it and put it on the wall," said Samples, a senior from Leawood. "That'd be a company I'd hold forever."

The students met with Buffett, the world's second-richest man, for about two hours Friday at the Berkshire Hathaway headquarters in Omaha, Neb. About 90 minutes of that was a question-and-answer session with Buffett, followed by the presentation from students enrolled in a KU security analysis class.

The meeting was set up by Mark Hirschey, the KU professor who teaches the class. He said he was inspired by news of other university students who had gotten Q&A sessions with Buffett.

Les Schwab Tires, based in Prineville, Ore., has about 365 sites in Alaska, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Washington.


This was on May 5, 2005 so Buffetts out from underneath his obligation to give away shares which I don't think he'd want to do.

And from Amazon reviews of Schwabs book:

When Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger put this book on the Berkshire/Hathaway "Must Read" list, this Tire Barron from the American Northwest entered the realm of American business icon.

What a fantastic book, what a superb philosophy...


I guess my own feeling is that these KU students are dead right, LS would be a perfect buy for Buffett, Buffett obviously admires Schwab, and LS's unfortunate passing creates a perfect environment for Schwabs heirs to have LS pass "in trust" to a perfect buyer in Buffett. I think this one boils down to price; Buffett won't overpay, no matter what. I think Schwabs heirs should do it though. They could probably finagle Berkshire stock out of the deal along w/ a buttload of cash, and be set for life. Or Lives.

I just think Buffett can't be looking at this thing, and not be chomping at the bit to buy. He loves Big Private Deals, and this LS deal is almost too perfect.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

a.) Across the nation, debtors can now be imprisoned
b.) Bankruptcy is phased out, which means that walking is not an option.


Any doc's on this? I can't believe this is true. We'd flood jails w/ debtors. There'd be millions in the can for credit card debts. Millions. The country would implode if this were even remotely true.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I can tell you that generally non-competes aren't worth the paper they are written on unless a certain employee has intellectual or patent information that is critical to ones business that if taken elsewhere could hurt said company. In a free market these are very hard to enforce.

I can tell you that I have successfully defended my own non-competes in court (not here, not in construction). That said, IT SUCKS doing it. It is EXTREMELY difficult legally, and many times you can win the battle but lose the war. LAWYERS are the only ones that win. You can usually take someone to court over a non-compete ONCE, and they'll be broken (unless they are a BIG company awash in money), even if they win.

I won in court, and I'd NEVER go to bat again over a non-compete in court. It's a life-sucking bitch.

Don't go to court. Hire Italians. That's all I'm gonna say.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You can usually take someone to court over a non-compete ONCE, and they'll be broken (unless they are a BIG company awash in money), even if they win

Not worded well. If a company goes to court w/ a sub over a non-compete, and the company wins, they are often broken by the experience. It is heinously costly.

Hire Italians, not lawyers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And call me an old softie, but for all the railing against the corporate stupidity going on in Cent OR, Les Schwab. the man & the company, are just Class AAA, top of the heap.

The man & the company are just a blueprint for how businesses should be run, and lives should be lived. I NEVER was treated like anything but royalty at LS.

One time they lost the keys to my minivan - gave them to another customer - and the place practically went nuts trying to get those keys back. They could not get ahold of the woman they gave them to, so they had a new set of keys ground out for like $80 from the dealer where I bought the car.

I didn't even spend $80. And they probably could have had me wait an hour or so, and actually waited for the woman to get home, drove there & got the keys, but it wasn't really about "economics", I guess.

I see a lot of sleaze in corporate governance in Cent OR, but LS is a beacon. They are just awesome. And the fact that they did it in the tire business - The TIRE BUSINESS - is incredible. They are just a model company.

I guess my hope is that LS can be preserved, and I pray Buffett buys the place. I can't imagine it wouldn't double or triple in size over the next 10 years under Buffett. Anyone else would probably tear it apart. It seems that Buffett & Schwab are two places where every decision is NOT about the economics. If it were, I probably would have been made to wait an hour at LS. But I didn't, and they got a customer for LIFE out of the deal.

And that's probably worth more than $80.

Anonymous said...

Yo Paul,

talk to the guy who has a voodoo doll of Mr Sebastian I think he's an Italian hire him out fuggetabout the lawyers :-)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I read this piece just now:

Yield on 10-year hits highest since January

New-home sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 981,000 last month, far exceeding the 865,000 pace expected by economists polled by MarketWatch.
April's sales were boosted by plunging prices. The median price of a new home was $229,100, down 10.9% in the past year, the largest price decline since 1970. Compared with March, prices in April were down a record 11.1%. See full story.
"Builders have finally moved from denial -- when they refused to sell at a discount -- to surrender, when they finally begin to cave on price in order to move bloated inventories," said T.J. Marta, fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets.


My immediate thought, is that 11.1% decline from March to April is a misprint or something. Then I went to a related story:

New-home sales surge 16% in April
Median sales price off 10.9% in past year, biggest drop since 1970


The number of homes sold for under $150,000 nearly doubled.
"When you slash prices and pile on the incentives, you move product," wrote Mike Larson, an analyst at Weiss Research.
It was "a rather astounding report," said David Greenlaw, an economist for Morgan Stanley. "We're at a loss to explain this spike in sales in light of the recent renewed gloominess among homebuilders."
The inventory of unsold homes fell by 1.5% to 538,000, representing a 6.5-month supply. In March, the inventory was 8.1 months.


And there is a graph there. YES, median home prices FELL 11.1% from last MONTH. Again:

Median Home Prices fell 11.1% FROM JUST LAST MONTH!

I am also baffled as to analyst confusion over the "spike" in sales. The answer is published quite clearly:

Sales were boosted by plunging prices.

If you want to boost unit sales of some large-scale marketable good, just drop price.

I think the "gloominess" among homebuilders is that the tradeoff between price & unit sales is finally starting to sink in. It's called REALITY.

There's a simple lesson here: The Glory Days are over, FOREVER. And that applies ESPECIALLY to Bend. If you want to move housing units, DROP PRICE. There is no other answer. I actually think that Realtors & builders will figure this out one day (perhaps when they need to make payroll for the 3rd or 4th month in a row out of their own pocket), and they'll see that LOWER home prices will actually equate to a PAYCHECK. Keeping prices high in hopes of the Glory Days returning just postpones the inevitable. Prices WILL drop, its just a question of whether the RE industry denies this reality & gets decimated in the meantime.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Did you see Boise, shall we call it Bend's big brother with over 8,000 homes for sale, yes you saw that correctly 8,000 thosand jeepers.

Welp, I checked Realtor.com, and there were 2,724 properties (single fam, condo, multi-fam) for sale in Boise. Bend had 2,343. You were probably looking at a different subset.

Considering Bend has a population of 75,000, and Boise is 193,000, or 157% larger than Bend, they would have to show something North of 6,000 properties to compare to Bend.

In looking up these stats, I was surprised that Boise is that small. I've been there once or twice, and just judging from downtown & outlying areas, I assumed greater Boise would be closer to half a mill, maybe 600K population.

And obviously Realtor.com numbers are not dead on, but the bubblefied nature of Bend is clear: Boise has more than 2.5X as many people, but only 16% more homes for sale. And Boise is a hell of a hot market.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

talk to the guy who has a voodoo doll of Mr Sebastian I think he's an Italian hire him out fuggetabout the lawyers :-)

I just watched GoodFellas last night. Maybe that's Joe Pesci talkin' thru me.

Sebastian? Fuggedaboutit. Youz twoz, stop bustin' my bawls.

Anonymous said...

Welp, I checked Realtor.com, and there were 2,724 properties (single fam, condo, multi-fam) for sale in Boise.

Paul,

I'm not saying your wrong I just got my info. about Boise off an AP article. Read below. I think it shows that while being a bigger market obviously than Bend it is speculator central and homeowners in that area will pay for it just an in Bend.




The Associated Press

BOISE, Idaho — Experts say investors trying to unload houses in highly populated southwestern Idaho have likely boosted the number of homes on the market.

They say a recent drop in median home prices might have triggered the sales rush.

Nearly 8,000 homes are for sale in the area.

Financial experts say that many homes on the market will likely continue driving down home prices.

Ada County saw a 1.3 percent drop in median home prices in March, the first decline in 10 months.

The current situation is good for buyers, not so good for sellers.

Heinrich Wiebe, co-founder of Genius Realty, says he doesn't see any recovery.

He says about 63 percent of the homes in the region now up for sale are owned by investors.

Anonymous said...

At least on the front page of Realtor.com, Boise has 3100 units for sale; Bend, 3409. I realize there are timeshares and repetitions here, but I'd say Bend has a little problem if these numbers are true.
Are there tons of empty houses just standing around?

Anonymous said...

CACB is in really deep trouble. Their other growth market is Boise. Where they made a big acquisition last year. I closed my short already. Maybe I should reopen it?
-CACB Shorter

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm not saying your wrong I just got my info. about Boise off an AP article.

Yup... I figured it was all prop's in Ada county. Boise has got the suburb thing going bigtime.

At least on the front page of Realtor.com, Boise has 3100 units for sale; Bend, 3409.

Isn't that insane? We are just a po-dunk nothing town. Boise is a real city.

Are there tons of empty houses just standing around?

I have 3 words for you. Yes. And Yes.

CACB is in really deep trouble. Their other growth market is Boise. Where they made a big acquisition last year. I closed my short already. Maybe I should reopen it?

Nooo! I get too stressed out for you. Maybe on a bounce back to the high 20's. Maybe. I still really think it could get decimated from here, cuz I see CACB as a proxy for subprime lending, the majority of their loan recipients being cash-strapped builders who cannot unload spec homes, and can't carry unbuilt lots... much less pay their sub's.

Besides, CACB seems due for a big bounce. The best stock money of the year was made on the big subprime bounce.

Anonymous said...

Any idea at what the number of homes for sale in Deschutes county or say the tri-county area....? I bet it's a pretty ugly number.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

OK, here it is. This is an excerpt from an article that actually appeared in The Nugget, the paper Dolson owns.

Sisters takes a look into the economic future

Housing was also a consideration in the calculation of the economic growth equation. The Area Median Income in Deschutes County is currently $58,800, which would provide an affordable home price of $179,330. The median Sisters home price during the first quarter of 2007 was $415,000.

I mean the guy prints a story about affordability, gives FLAT OUT figures that pretty much state that housing is incredibly UNAFFORDABLE all over Central Oregon, but especially in his home town, where they are higher than almost anywhere, then has the gall to essentially say that there IS NO AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM in CBN.

Unbelievable. The average home on a lot in Sisters is $452,953, a mere 153% higher than an "affordable" home price as reported by Dolsons paper. Yet, he asserts there is no real affordability problem, and worse that we should do nothing about it.

This is TRUE, DYED-IN-THE-WOOL Boss Hog thinking. You will see no better illustration of it. A "business leader" trying to do an anonymous pump-N-dump piece with a publishing buddy, masquerading as Joe Blow. Incredible deception, and lie after lie. I really thought Dolson was better than this. It just illustrates incredible contempt for readers, and an almost pathologically oversized ego to think that his pump-N-dump bullshit should & will sway a billion dollar market.

I wonder if Sisters advertiser nudged him into doing this. The contempt for the intelligence of the populous of Bend by Bend Media & the RE industry is just unbelievable.

Anonymous said...

Oh come on Paul, we just all sheeple out here we eat the turds the media serves us with a smile. It's C.O. livin baby :-)

Anonymous said...

NEWS FLASH

Another Bend company closes its doors, another 60 Bend workers laid off.

Wood products company, victim of housing downturn.

BilboBend said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

a.) Across the nation, debtors can now be imprisoned
b.) Bankruptcy is phased out, which means that walking is not an option.

Any doc's on this?
***

Esteemed Ihtbyb,

There was a large article on this in the WSJ this past fall, I can find it and post if you wish, wrt to the imprisoning of the debtors. The basic gist was the trend is now for judges to THROW non-payers of debt in jail indefintely, and of course 'privatization' means they're debt increases, because the cost of incarceration is added to debt load. The carrot on the bank is these folks get to work $1.20/hr and that can be to applied towards debt.

WRT the second issue,'bankruptcy' you know the law changed a few months ago by dubya, it used to be you could just walk from a major loss like buying a house in NW-XC for $750k, and walking at $500k, you could eliminate the debt of $250k by bankruptcy. GONE. Under the new system serfs will carry this DEBT the rest of thier lives.

Let me say this once more I have said it a dozen times, this entire deal of all our CO morons taking on ton's of debt has been well planned. USA was originally a penal colony, and its going to be again a penal colony. Besides what better way to compete against the global economy. To have ten's of millions of 'debtors' all working for $1.20/hr the USA will once again be as great as there were during the days of southern plantations.

There's an old joke amongst us ol-timers, there's three kinds of folks: Field Niggers, House Niggers, and Plantation Owners. Under good ol DUBYA the FN will be folks working the street like constructions, and such, and the HN will be the folks in confinement doing office chores. Lastly, the PO's will be running around in thier RV's with a lot less traffic.



Bilbo-in-Bend

BilboBend said...

If you don't have a strong stomach for Bully's and EDCO Boss-Hogs. Don't read this.

The EDCO-BULLYING IS-WAS that the day that LS went to the hospital, Brogman was made CEO, on the same day he went to Bend City Council and gave them ONE-HOUR to get with the Program or Else.


****

“The City has great dreams for
Juniper Ridge and respects Les Schwab as a regional partner. She understands that the Council
is being asked not only to vote for Bend, but to vote for the region. The vote is difficult for her
because Council has been held to secrecy and been asked by the employer to put relationships
with regional partners at risk. Council has only been given an hour to review the agreement and
to discuss it.” - Linda Johnson

“Mayor Friedman hears a huge amount of affection for Les Schwab and excitement about the
company locating in Juniper Ridge. He also hears distress about the agreement itself. In terms
of secrecy and restriction, it is not consistent with his image of Les Schwab.”

“Councilor Hummel believes the details are bad.”

“Councilor Clinton believes that Les Schwab is the kind of company Bend would welcome in
Juniper Ridge. However, the details of the contract have put the Council
in a box. It is an unfortunate way of proceeding that looks like bullying. The contract is not in
the best interest of the City or of Juniper Ridge and is not fiscally prudent for the community,
Juniper Ridge, or the City.

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/minutes12_12_06_City_Council_Special_Meeting.pdf

Bend City Council Special Meeting
Page 1 of 3
December 12, 2006
Bend City Council Special Meeting
December 12, 2006
1.
Roll Call
A special meeting of the Bend City Council was called to order at 9:00 A.M. in the City Council
Chambers at Bend City Hall, 710 NW Wall. Present upon roll call by City Recorder Patty Stell
were Bend City Councilors Dave Malkin, Linda Johnson, Bruce Abernethy, John Hummel, Chris
Telfer, and Mayor Bill Friedman. Councilor Jim Clinton joined the meeting during Executive
Session.
2.
Mayor Friedman called a recess to Executive Session at 9:00 A.M. pursuant to ORS
192.660 (2) (e).
3.
The special meeting reconvened at 9:59 A.M.
4.
Sale of Real Property
Economic Development Director John Russell explained the public hearing to consider a land
sale for the first 20 acres of Juniper Ridge. The agreement is for the immediate purchase of 12
acres with an option for an additional eight acres over the next 12 years. The company would be
building a 120 square foot building for 320 employees. The land would be for Les Schwab
corporate headquarters relocating from Prineville. The company approached the City in May
anonymously. This would be for the corporate headquarters and the remainder of the Prineville
operations would remain in Prineville. The Company was considering Bend or leaving the state.
a. Hold a public hearing to receive comment on the proposed sale of real
property
Mayor Friedman opened the public hearing at 10: 01 A.M. Hearing no comments, the public
hearing was closed.
b. Consider a motion to sell real property
Councilor Telfer moved to approve the purchase and sale agreement with SWW LLC. Councilor
Malkin seconded the motion.
Discussion:
Councilor Johnson advised that this is a difficult vote for her. The City has great dreams for
Juniper Ridge and respects Les Schwab as a regional partner. She understands that the Council
is being asked not only to vote for Bend, but to vote for the region. The vote is difficult for her
because Council has been held to secrecy and been asked by the employer to put relationships
with regional partners at risk. Council has only been given an hour to review the agreement and
to discuss it. There is not a direct tie to the principles that Council established for Juniper Ridge.
It might be a great agreement, but Council has not been given an opportunity to talk about it and
________________________________________
Page 2
Bend City Council Special Meeting
Page 2 of 3
December 12, 2006
ask the questions that are needed to make the best choice for the City and for the region.
Councilor Johnson will vote no, not because of the content of the agreement, but because of the
process and the position that the Council has been put in to take a vote which puts at risk the
Council’s relationships with the region.
Councilor Hummel believes this is the toughest vote he has ever had to make. The fact that Les
Schwab is such an important employer to Prineville and to Crook County is what initially struck
him. He worked in Prineville when he first lived in Central Oregon. Les Schwab saved the
community when mills were shutting down. Councilor Hummel respects Les Schwab for staying
in the Prineville community for all these years when it didn’t make financial sense for them to
stay. He saw the kids who worked at Les Schwab who could stay in Prineville and raise a family
because of the living wage jobs. They were proud to work for Les Schwab. If Les Schwab will
leave Central Oregon if Bend City Council does not approve the contract, then all the employees
will lose. He understands this is the corporate office and not the operations. Les Schwab has a
right to do whatever it wants and it has given more than anyone to the community of Prineville.
Councilor Hummel had been leaning toward a vote of yes because he felt it would save jobs in
the region. Then, Councilor Clinton raised the issue of the details of the agreement. The details
of the agreement did not come close to working. Councilor Hummel believes the details are bad.
It is unfortunate that Les Schwab insisted on these deal breaking terms.
Councilor Clinton believes that Les Schwab is the kind of company Bend would welcome in
Juniper Ridge. It embodies good paying jobs, community spirit, and a contributing nature that he
would love to have at Juniper Ridge. However, the details of the contract have put the Council
in a box. It is an unfortunate way of proceeding that looks like bullying. The contract is not in
the best interest of the City or of Juniper Ridge and is not fiscally prudent for the community,
Juniper Ridge, or the City. The contract includes precedent setting incentives. Council made an
attractive offer for the land, better than to the master developer. Land was offered at a
discounted price with the condition that no further incentives would be offered. The contract has
other incentives and allows that this company be treated differently than any other company
would be treated. He believes the contract is remarkably and unacceptably bad.
Councilor Malkin will vote yes because it is very important that Les Schwab stay in Central
Oregon. He is concerned that Les Schwab not leave the state. Additionally, he believes that Les
Schwab will be an incredibly good business to start off the City’s operation at Juniper Ridge.
The company will bring 350 jobs to Bend. It is one of the leading employers in Central Oregon.
It is the strongest regional business in the west, and he is pleased that Bend can retain them in
Central Oregon.
Mayor Friedman hears a huge amount of affection for Les Schwab and excitement about the
company locating in Juniper Ridge. He also hears distress about the agreement itself. In terms
of secrecy and restriction, it is not consistent with his image of Les Schwab. He will vote yes
with the hope to see the real Les Schwab emerge. He hopes the company’s principals will fit
with the Council’s principles established for Juniper Ridge. If it turns out that this hope is not
realized, then he believes he will have made a mistake.
________________________________________
Page 3
Bend City Council Special Meeting
Page 3 of 3
December 12, 2006
Upon roll call vote the motion to approve the purchase and sales agreement passed, 4/3.
Councilors Abernethy, Telfer, Malkin and Mayor Friedman supported the motion. Councilors
Clinton, Johnson and Hummel were opposed.
Mayor Friedman explained that the City Manager is authorized to execute the agreement with
Les Schwab. Council would appreciate the opportunity to understand where Les Schwab intends
to go with this agreement.
5.
Adjourn
Councilor Johnson moved to adjourn. Councilor Malkin seconded the motion which passed
unanimously, 7/0.
The meeting adjourned at 10:14 A.M.
Respectfully submitted,
Patricia Stell
City Recorder
/km

BilboBend said...

EDCO/LS Declare New Central Oregon Order

The City of Bend is a sucker for growth. They never turn down a BOSS-HOG, especially when their government pension and career is dependent.
Hummel dis-satisified the BOSS-HOGS and he’s gone.

Here’s what transpired.

1.) Les Schwab the man is ill { Dec 2006 }, the top men all move to Bend,
2.) When Schwab goes to hospital Brogman is appointed CEO, and BOSS-HOGS tell city council to pass a secret order that they have one hour to read. The order passes, with MAJOR objection.
3.) All those that verbally and editorially opposed the secret order to be recalled in time, Hummel was the first to go, the BUS fiasco was the excuse, but all our non-cooperative politicians have been marked for exit. Bulletin, Source, … will do major editorial hit jobs in the coming election season, and those that didn’t play ball.
4.) EDCO is running the show, and LS new executives in Bend are using their clout and LS cash-flow to finance the New Central Oregon Order.
5.) Open meeting laws have been violated, the public’s trust has been violated by passing secret orders.
6.) The EDCO/LS boss hog’s in conjunction with Prineville Judge who just happens to be on Governors Industry and Housing Council will “Manufacture Consent” for building I-305 a major FWY between “The Dalles & Klamath Falls”,
7.) The pain of driving between Redmond & Bend caused by Juniper-Ridge { an EDCO/LS creation } will create the need for the FWY by the population.
8.) Those in the know will make ten’s of Billions of dollars by knowing where to buy property where the FWY-OFF-RAMPS will be built, and by the profits of building the FWY itself.
9.) The ‘people’ of bend, by virtue of the fact that they’re broke, hungry and desperate will go along with any program proposed by EDCO/LS.
10.) The Source, Bulletin, and ALL Central-Oregonian media will go with the program as those that don’t will be denied advertising revenue.
11.) Spring 2007, Hummel dis-satisify's the EDCO-LS BOSS-HOGS for the last time, and he’s gone.

**

“The City has great dreams for
Juniper Ridge and respects Les Schwab as a regional partner. She understands that the Council
is being asked not only to vote for Bend, but to vote for the region. The vote is difficult for her
because Council has been held to secrecy and been asked by the employer to put relationships
with regional partners at risk. Council has only been given an hour to review the agreement and
to discuss it.” - Linda Johnson December 12, 2006


“Mayor Friedman hears a huge amount of affection for Les Schwab and excitement about the
company locating in Juniper Ridge. He also hears distress about the agreement itself. In terms
of secrecy and restriction, it is not consistent with his image of Les Schwab.” December 12, 2006


“Councilor Hummel believes the details are bad.” December 12, 2006


“Councilor Clinton believes that Les Schwab is the kind of company Bend would welcome in
Juniper Ridge. However, the details of the contract have put the Council
in a box. It is an unfortunate way of proceeding that looks like bullying. The contract is not in
the best interest of the City or of Juniper Ridge and is not fiscally prudent for the community,
Juniper Ridge, or the City. December 12, 2006


http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/minutes12_12_06_City_Council_Special_Meeting.pdf

Anonymous said...

TO:

IHATETOBURSTYOURBUBBLE.....

YOUR LOOK INTO BOISE IS QUITE SMART AT A TIME LIKE THIS..

ACTUALLY, THE POPULATION YOU QUOTED IS CORRECT..ABOUT 193,000; BUT THAT IS BOISE ONLY, WHEN YOU ADD IN ALL THE SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE VALLEY; MERIDIAN, EAGLE, KUNA, EAST BOISE, WEST BOISE (YES THEY DO THAT) STAR.....THE POP IS ABOUT 453,000....


THERE IS ONE OTHER THING BEND DOES NOT HAVE.....ALBERTSONS HEADQUARTERS (11,000 EMPLOYEES), MICRON (6,000 EMPLOYEES), SIMPLOT (LARGEST SUPPLIER OF POTATOES IN THE WORLD (10,000 EMPLOYEES).....

YOU GET THE IDEA. tHERE IS ALSO A NICE SKI AREA 90 MILES FROM TOWN CALLED TAMARACK....CHECK IT OUT...

ALSO THE WEATHER IS BETTER AND THE AIRPORT HAS LOTS OF NON STOPS ALL UP AND DOWN THE WEST COAST...

A NICE ZOO, ART MUSEUM, UNIVERSITY, YOU GET THE PICTURE.....

THERE ARE 8,000 HOMES ON THE MARKET...BUT THE PRICES IN COMPARISON TO BEND ARE NOT BAD GIVEN THE FACT THEY HAVE JOBS AND AN ECONOMY...

I LIKED YOUR COMMENT...

BOISE IS PROBABLY THE BEST LOW PRICED MARKET ON THE WEST COAST..

OH YEAH, YOU CAN EVEN GET SOMETHING NICE FOR $250,000 AND A JOB....