tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post8878842184977996810..comments2023-07-07T00:32:17.629-07:00Comments on BendBubble2: Super Burrito, We Hardly Knew YeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger138125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-67337219698632793152007-08-05T15:23:00.000-07:002007-08-05T15:23:00.000-07:00“We are overbuilt at the moment,” Hollern ( Brook...<B><BR/>“We are overbuilt at the moment,” Hollern ( Brooks Resources hatchet-man ) said. “But as long as our growth rate — in terms of real people, real jobs and real kids — continues, we’ll work through this in a couple of years and things will pick up again.<BR/></B><BR/>Let's grow ourselves out of RE recession. Let's build more houses, lets have more events, and ...<BR/><BR/>What in the hell is real people? Real kids? What the fuck is this bitch talkin? and to WHOM?<BR/><BR/>Yes, we're over-built, try a twenty year inventory. Yes, growth will grow us out of this...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-40359208472989272012007-08-05T09:11:00.000-07:002007-08-05T09:11:00.000-07:00Very few of the beautiful people will survive the ...Very few of the beautiful people will survive the five cold years.<BR/><BR/>Get rich quick folk cannot tolerate five years of $6k/yr income.<BR/><BR/>Given that ALL of Bend was financed on HELOC,<BR/><BR/>Next 2-3 years will be very ugly.<BR/><BR/>That said I'm amazed at the number of people on my street that bought their home at $12k in the 70's, and haven't played the game, the attitude is seen the 80's, ... It's the newbies in the last ten years that will be hurt the most,...<BR/><BR/>Like they say Bend is a city of "Marks".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-88920522004266445062007-08-05T09:08:00.000-07:002007-08-05T09:08:00.000-07:00Yes, this is what I have been saying for a year, 3...Yes, this is what I have been saying for a year, 3-5 years, we're now in year one, and the for the first time ever the BULL gives us a history lesson.<BR/><BR/>The timber crash started in 1983, and even here they're saying 1988 for recovery, that's five years, note the title says it will be a quick correction, but for resets and foreclosures, hungry realtors, mtg, commercial, ... the whole bend biz of events, its going to be a long cold five years.<BR/><BR/><B><BR/>If history proves a guide, housing slump won’t last<BR/>By David Fisher / The Bulletin<BR/>Published: August 05. 2007 5:00AM </B><BR/><BR/>A few years ago, Krishan Tinney was stuck in traffic — again — on her grinding commute from Los Angeles to Ventura County. So she called a friend in Bend to kill some time.<BR/><BR/>“What are you doing?” Tinney asked.<BR/><BR/>“Oh, I just got off work,” her friend said. “Thought I’d walk down to the river and float for a while.”<BR/><BR/>It was 4 o’clock on a Thursday afternoon.<BR/><BR/>A few months later, Tinney and her husband, an engineer, ditched Southern California, moved to Bend and bought a house — something that was way beyond their means in SoCal’s heady housing market. Since then, he has recruited friends to join him at Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp. Her parents have moved here, too.<BR/><BR/>The Tinneys sold their first house a few months ago and moved into a bigger, brand-new one in south Bend’s Renaissance Ridge subdivision.<BR/><BR/>“We could never have done this in Ventura County,” Tinney said, plucking a few weeds from her tiny new lawn last week as she got ready to take her young daughter swimming. “We feel very fortunate. We love it here.”<BR/><BR/>Drawn by the lure of relatively affordable housing through the years, the low-key, small-city atmosphere and the stunning natural beauty of Central Oregon, Tinney and thousands of newcomers like her have rained a remarkable streak of good fortune on Bend’s housing market.<BR/><BR/>Since 1988 — the year the city pulled out of its last major real estate slump — the average price of a Bend home has shot up an average of 11.3 percent per year, according to Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service numbers, dwarfing the 4.8 percent average annual gain in the nation’s average home price during that period and rivaling the<BR/><BR/>12 percent average annual return of the S&P 500 stock index.<BR/><BR/>Even ignoring the unsustainable growth rates of the boom years of 2004-06, the city’s real estate gains have been impressive.<BR/><BR/>The average price of Bend houses gained an average of<BR/><BR/>10 percent per year from 1988 to 2003, according MLS numbers, while prices nationally climbed only about 4.2 percent per year.<BR/><BR/>Of course, the numbers are rough. Some of Bend’s average price gains have come more from increases in the construction of super-expensive homes than from the price appreciation of individual houses. Still, it’s clear that the local housing economy hasn’t experienced anything like a drawdown in nearly a generation.<BR/><BR/>Until, possibly, this year.<BR/><BR/>The inventory of unsold homes in the Bend market has swelled to record numbers this year, while sales levels for the first six month of the year have fallen back to levels not seen since 2003.<BR/><BR/>The traditional underlying drivers of the local housing market are likely still there, University of Oregon economist Tim Duy said Thursday. Newcomers are still attracted to Central Oregon’s natural beauty and, even at today’s prices, average housing prices here remain lower than they are in neighboring California and in other high-priced regions along the nation’s gold coasts.<BR/><BR/>But working off all of those unsold houses might bring some pain, Duy said. The only question is how much and for how long.<BR/><BR/>“I’ve got to think that the world is not falling apart here,” Duy said. “But prices are going to have to come down to get rid of whatever excess inventory has built up.”<BR/><BR/>Rough past<BR/><BR/>Bend’s prices have appreciated so much during the past 20 years, Duy noted, partly because they started so low.<BR/><BR/>The real estate economy here was in rough shape as the 1970s faded into the ’80s, Brooks Resources Corp. CEO Mike Hollern recalled recently.<BR/><BR/>A housing boom in the late 1970s attracted a stream of new contractors to town and filled neighborhoods with new housing, Hollern said, but the optimism didn’t last long. Interest rates spiked in the early 1980s as the Federal Reserve Board launched an aggressive battle against inflation, sending average mortgage rates soaring from the 9.25 percent average of 1978 to a peak of nearly 15 percent in 1982.<BR/><BR/>That, combined with an employment crunch in the wood products industry, hit Bend’s economy hard, Hollern said. Downtown shops closed and boarded their windows. Contractors pulled up stakes and left town.<BR/><BR/>Don Kelleher, now a longtime real estate agent, was in a retail business at the time, trying to make ends meet while paying 19 percent interest on inventory loans. His wife, a real estate agent at the time, closed deals that required the sellers to bring money to the table because the sales prices of their homes could no longer pay off their mortgages.<BR/><BR/>From the exuberance of the 1970s, confidence plunged to an all-time low.<BR/><BR/>“There was a time when we would hear about a housing start — just one house, not a subdivision — and everybody would drive by to see who the hell was building a house,” Hollern said. “Whoever it is must be crazy.”<BR/><BR/>It took the local housing market years to recover.<BR/><BR/>From 1983 — the earliest year for which the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service has reliable numbers — through 1985, the average price of a Bend home fell more than 8 percent, from $54,521 to $50,144. Prices staged a brief rally in 1986 as mortgage interest rates dropped back below the 10 percent mark again. But 1987 brought another 2.8 percent slide, and the average price of a Bend house — which amounted to only about $54,000 that year — was less than half the national average.<BR/><BR/>Weakness in the housing market was mirrored by sluggishness in other market sectors, Hollern said.<BR/><BR/>Brooks Resources — formed in 1968 as the real estate arm of the old Brooks-Scanlon lumber company — started Shevlin Center, which today is a thriving hub of office buildings and industrial plants on the west side of the Deschutes River along Colorado Avenue, in the early 1980s. But nothing happened for years, even though Brooks and the city poured thousands of dollars into the Colorado Avenue bridge and other improvements.<BR/><BR/>Awbrey Butte also stood virtually empty through the first half of the ’80s, Hollern said, even though Brooks bought it in 1970 and master planned it a few years later.<BR/><BR/>Still, the city was beginning to sprout some of the seeds of its future growth. Developments like the High Desert Museum, along with a trickle of new concert series, new restaurants and new shops increased the city’s attractiveness while the Sunriver Resort, founded by investor John Gray in the mid-1960s, and Black Butte Ranch, founded by Brooks Resources in 1970, exposed the area to a steady stream of tourists from the cities of California and the Pacific Northwest.<BR/><BR/>Developments like the new St. Charles Medical Center, meanwhile, increased the city’s service level and formed the nexus for a growing employment base, Hollern noted. But the key to the city’s growth through the 1990s and beyond proved to be its attractiveness to retirees and young, skilled urban workers who brought pre-existing wealth or, in some cases, their own jobs with them when they moved to the High Desert.<BR/><BR/>“We have become,” Hollern said, “a poster child for the non-placebound economy.”<BR/><BR/>From close to the bottom of Oregon’s 36 counties in terms of household income in the early years of the 1990s, Deschutes County has climbed to among the highest in the state, Hollern noted. Still, storm clouds have gathered again around its housing market.<BR/><BR/>Speculative bubble<BR/><BR/>From 2004 through 2006, the smooth, upward-trending curve that maps Bend’s historical housing prices takes a sudden jump upward.<BR/><BR/>Fueled by cheap mortgage rates and intense investor interest, the average price of Bend’s housing shot up 24 percent per year in that span, giving the city a prominent spot on national rankings of overpriced housing markets.<BR/><BR/>Whether that’s fair or not is debatable. Most relative price rankings — including a quarterly report generated by Global Insight and National City Mortgage that pegged Bend at or near the top of its list for more than a year — attempt to measure the degree of an area’s “overpriced” condition by comparing home prices to prevailing local wages, leaving investment income, self-employed income and other common sources of Bend household wealth out of the equation.<BR/><BR/>Still, there’s no doubt that home prices have broken beyond the city’s established trend line, said Duy, who tracks a collection of local economic data to produce a quarterly Central Oregon economic index for The Bulletin. The question now is, where does it go from here?<BR/><BR/>Some factors, like the city’s continuing attractiveness to wealthy newcomers, are likely to continue to drive growth for years to come, Duy said. But other shorter-term factors, like the oversupply of houses for sale, a growing credit crunch in the mortgage lending industry and the deflation of investor interest in the housing market here and nationwide, all foreshadow some tough months, or years, to come for local residential real estate.<BR/><BR/>Sellers in any real estate market are psychologically resistant to lowering home prices, Duy said, but the market’s current angst could work itself out through one of a couple of scenarios: prices could come down, which could drain the area’s excess inventory quickly if they come down far enough, or prices will remain stuck somewhere around their current levels or even rise while the region relies on population growth to work off the excess — a process that could take much longer.<BR/><BR/>Bend money manager Bill Valentine, who warned his radio talk show listeners about inflation in the local housing market as early as 2005, likened the choice to the difference between ripping a Band-Aid off quickly to take the pain all at once, or peeling it off hair by painful hair.<BR/><BR/>“It has to return to the trend line, and it’s going to happen in one of two ways: fast and ugly or slow and painful,” Valentine said Thursday. “We are gonna end up in the same place, regardless, with a healthy real estate market. We’re probably gonna end up with a thinned-out real estate force, but we still have a great place to live, and people will still be able to make a decent living building houses here and selling real estate.”<BR/><BR/>A couple of wildcards — recession or rapidly rising interest rates — could make recovery longer and tougher, Valentine said, although an out-and-out recession seems unlikely at this point, and 10-year Treasury bond rates, which tend to foreshadow mortgage rates, have actually dipped in recent weeks.<BR/><BR/>Hollern, who has led Brooks Resources, the region’s largest development company, since its founding, said he also sees a bright future for real estate here over the next 20 years, although he also sees pain coming in the short term.<BR/><BR/>“We are overbuilt at the moment,” Hollern said. “But as long as our growth rate — in terms of real people, real jobs and real kids — continues, we’ll work through this in a couple of years and things will pick up again.”<BR/><BR/>That couple of years, though, could feel like a long stretch for some.<BR/><BR/>Justin Peterson, a 30-year-old Bend mortgage broker, grew up in Redmond. Up until this year, he hadn’t experienced a local real estate downturn in his lifetime. Now, he’s living through one.<BR/><BR/>Peterson and his wife bought three investment houses during the boom years of 2005 and 2006. He’s trying to sell one now to generate cash, so far without much luck. Two are rented.<BR/><BR/>The experience so far hasn’t soured him on real estate investing, Peterson said, but lessons have been learned. Going forward, he said he’ll be more conservative, maybe buying a property every few years rather than buying them in a lump, reducing the chances of buying at the peak of a cycle. He’ll stay more liquid, too — cash is king in a downturn, and it can take a lot of cash to hang onto houses to wait one out.<BR/><BR/>But for now, like a lot of other recent investors, he’s a seller.<BR/><BR/>“We definitely haven’t lost faith in real estate, for sure,” Peterson said Thursday. “We’ll just get past this correction and make our adjustments and move on.”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-19453248672242241272007-08-05T07:16:00.000-07:002007-08-05T07:16:00.000-07:00LOL! The Bullshittin finally acknowledges there's ...LOL! The Bullshittin finally acknowledges there's a slump ... only to immediately turn around and assure us the slump will soon be over!<BR/><BR/>A couple weeks ago Costa wrote a column about how the local realtors were ragging on him for "negative" reporting. I guess their message sunk in.<BR/><BR/>As an accurate and objective news source, The Bullshittin is a bad joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-6108480616031831672007-08-05T07:11:00.000-07:002007-08-05T07:11:00.000-07:00HILARIOUS Bend Bulletin front page story on housin...HILARIOUS Bend Bulletin front page story on housing today. Just a riot. David Foster, where do you get this stuff? FUNNY! Comedy Central for you, buddy.<BR/><BR/> --TTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-85020476294343185822007-08-04T20:41:00.000-07:002007-08-04T20:41:00.000-07:00There will be surprises on an individual level, li...<B>There will be surprises on an individual level, like finding out that the four houses on your block which are renter-occupied (and you've learned to live with that) are all owned by the same busted investor who's now being foreclosed upon.</B><BR/><BR/>Yup, that's where I'm at.<BR/><BR/>What's funny is how markets are pretty good at discounting news, that The Market should have no Earthly right to know. Look at the slide in World markets in the days leading to 9/11. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but that sort of slide is statistically very unlikely just prior to "unexpected" events, like 9/11.<BR/><BR/>There will be little surprises on the way down all over the US, but especially Bend. Tons of "below spec" homes, all sorts of fraud deals. What's funny is that this happens all the time... people just get real pissed when conditions deteriorate & they try to sue their way out.<BR/><BR/>The Bulletin will make money... so will the jackals... err lawyers.IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-27759546481106131722007-08-04T20:22:00.000-07:002007-08-04T20:22:00.000-07:00In fact, I'd say the slump is GOOD for the Bulleti...In fact, I'd say the slump is GOOD for the Bulletin. Just means Realtors have to advertise more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-11249775749990601342007-08-04T20:21:00.000-07:002007-08-04T20:21:00.000-07:00>>$6K every 20 months? This can't last.And what ar...>>$6K every 20 months? This can't last.<BR/><BR/>And what are nervous sellers asking Realtors to do? Run tons of 4-color ads and sit in Open Houses all weekend. Pick up the Bulletin any Saturday and it's pretty clear that someone is still making money--The Bulletin.<BR/><BR/> --TTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-8377968600724615112007-08-04T17:54:00.000-07:002007-08-04T17:54:00.000-07:00I noticed that the number of homes is VERY roughly...I noticed that the number of homes is VERY roughly equal to the number of Realtors in this area, which means that these people are pulling down roughly 1 commish every 20 months. On a $400K AVG home, that's $24K, split 4 ways: buyer broker, seller broker and the respective franchises.<BR/><BR/>$6K every 20 months? This can't last.<BR/><BR/>Add another Paul-Doh prediction: One of the big Old Mill franchises will close down their extravagant facilities. No way can they pay the lease on those buildings with revenues at these levels.<BR/><BR/>NO WAY.IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-86418062393865953032007-08-04T17:48:00.000-07:002007-08-04T17:48:00.000-07:00I'm surprised no one (seemed) to comment on Doug F...I'm surprised no one (seemed) to comment on <A HREF="http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/Oregon~Bend~dougfarmer" REL="nofollow">Doug Farmers July numbers</A><BR/><BR/><B>July 07<BR/><BR/>Listings Sold: 116<BR/>% of Inventory Sold: 5.01%<BR/>Listings Expired: 92<BR/>Avg Square Footage: 2027<BR/>Avg Days on the Mkt: 170<BR/>Avg Sale Price: $ 438,465.<BR/>Median Sales Price: $ 347,500.<BR/>Active Listings July 31: 2,361</B><BR/><BR/>YoY comparison:<BR/><BR/><B>Jly 06<BR/><BR/>Listings Sold: 174<BR/>Avg Square Footage: 2034<BR/>Avg Days on the Mkt: 129<BR/>Avg Sale Price: $ 449,310.<BR/>Active Listings July 31st: 1797</B><BR/><BR/>MoM comparison:<BR/><BR/><B>June 07<BR/><BR/>Listings Sold: 165<BR/>% of Inventory Sold: 7.69%<BR/>Listings Expired: 84<BR/>Avg Square Footage: 1989<BR/>Avg Days on the Mkt: 157<BR/>Avg Sale Price: $ 418,017.<BR/>Median Sales Price: $ 345,000.<BR/>Active Listings June 30: 2314</B><BR/><BR/><B>YES, THAT IS 20.35 MONTHS OF INVENTORY! 20.35 MONTHS!</B><BR/><BR/>I had to check that several times, cuz I couldn't believe it. I mean in the heat of the Savior Summer that was going to pull Bends RE ass out of the fire, we are not only in the fire, we're burning alive.<BR/><BR/>Is it possible we will have 2 YEARS of home inventory by Fall or Winter? I joked about it in past posts, but now it looks totally possible.<BR/><BR/>116 homes sold in JULY! My God, this thing is imploding.<BR/><BR/>Over 20 months of inventory! <BR/><BR/><B>Unbelievable!</B>IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-55916031979657887882007-08-04T17:23:00.000-07:002007-08-04T17:23:00.000-07:00I'm Back!*It was terrible having you gone, days on...I'm Back!<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>It was terrible having you gone, days on end looking at old cars at Drake Park. Nothing to do but fish, swim, ride bikes, ... Now we can get back to our keyboards.<BR/><BR/>Please IHTBYB never leave again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-20871007259510563252007-08-04T17:21:00.000-07:002007-08-04T17:21:00.000-07:00Is Bilbo-Bust-Baggins still long winded? *Who writ...Is Bilbo-Bust-Baggins still long winded? <BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>Who write longer shit? Bem, IHTbyb, or bentbust?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-46423469795660210192007-08-04T16:30:00.000-07:002007-08-04T16:30:00.000-07:00Welcome back greatly esteemed one. Interesting stu...Welcome back greatly esteemed one. Interesting stuff happening. Stock market tanked yesterday on concerns about mortgages and credit markets. According to timmy toes, wells fargo raised the rate on jumbo 30 yrs to 8 %. Also , Jim Cramer advised on national tv, that if you have a mortgage going toxic , you should walk away from the house. There are some good posts about his recent rants on housingpanic.blogspot.com. Good stuff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-13903730128080792622007-08-04T16:25:00.000-07:002007-08-04T16:25:00.000-07:00I'm Back!Is Bend still a crappy RE market? Is Bil...I'm Back!<BR/><BR/><B>Is Bend still a crappy RE market? Is Bilbo-Bust-Baggins still long winded? Is BendBB still giving me hell? Is BEM alive?</B><BR/><BR/>Sorry, it's just hard to tell what's real anymore... been in John Day for 4 days, and it seems to be surrounded by some sort of time vortex where everybody living about 30 years in the past. Ain't all bad... just disconcerting when you come back to reality.<BR/><BR/>I'll have to shower, and read up this weekend....<BR/><BR/>And yes... I saw ya BEM, but I left town right at that minute!IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-30505820338849421292007-08-04T14:26:00.000-07:002007-08-04T14:26:00.000-07:00That URL was too long for blogger, but if you trip...That URL was too long for blogger, but if you triple-click on it and then press Ctrl-C, you'll be able to copy it to paste into your browser's address bar.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-60032753041873317092007-08-04T14:24:00.000-07:002007-08-04T14:24:00.000-07:00http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhig...http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200708031545DOWJONESDJONLINE000825.htm<BR/><BR/>"A broker at Ace Mortgage Funding LLC, a leading mortgage brokerage firm, estimated on Friday that 90% of these so-called non-conforming home loans have disappeared in the past three days, leaving home buyers with far fewer options. The broker declined to be identified because they didn't want to be seen as exacerbating housing market problems."<BR/><BR/>"Mike Perry, chief executive of mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp (IMB) said on Thursday that he got a phone call this week from U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd, D- Conn., who asked whether Congress can help the U.S. mortgage industry in any way."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-1000215823554505942007-08-04T09:29:00.000-07:002007-08-04T09:29:00.000-07:00What should put fear in the sellers of Bend houses...What should put fear in the sellers of Bend houses is that rates on Jumbos have gone up the last two weeks as treasuries have come down.<BR/><BR/>Watch now as houses over $500k come down, cramming the market currently occupied by the $350-$450k houses, which have to drop to get out of the way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-29924425332037132852007-08-04T09:10:00.000-07:002007-08-04T09:10:00.000-07:00>>The problem, is and always was regulation, $7/hr...>>The problem, is and always was regulation, $7/hr people shouldn't have been allowed to by $500k shevlin mini-me mansions.<BR/><BR/>People may have wondered how on earth the lenders thought it was a good idea to have low-doc and no-doc loans.<BR/><BR/>Well, it WAS a good idea for the lender. They wanted all the business they could get, because they passed the risk along and made money no matter what.<BR/><BR/>And the low- and no-doc just put the blame on the borrower. "Hey, the fucker said he was a self-employed consultant making 80k."<BR/><BR/> -TTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-33982916936470468502007-08-04T09:05:00.000-07:002007-08-04T09:05:00.000-07:00Up until about a week ago, I was hearing that comm...Up until about a week ago, I was hearing that commercial property was still strong. Now, all of the sudden, everyone seems to agree it should be dumped.<BR/><BR/>Funny how forward-looking analysts are, huh?<BR/><BR/>Hey analyst, that's not the windshield you're looking through, that's the rear-view mirror.<BR/><BR/>---<BR/><BR/>In Bend there are still people saying, "yeah, the housing is shit, but thank god I work in commercial." How many more weeks do those guys sleep comfortably without Lunesta?<BR/><BR/> --TTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-77224341598107927972007-08-04T08:59:00.000-07:002007-08-04T08:59:00.000-07:00There's no "magic" place to go get the replacement...There's no "magic" place to go get the replacement money for the evaporated wealth.<BR/><BR/>--TT<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>In bailouts, the actual outcome is a lot like Katrina, what you actually get back, is not what you had.<BR/><BR/>Folks in Katrina got bailed out by DUBYA, and what they got was a single-wide in Texas, and what they had was a plantation estate.<BR/><BR/>The problem with bailouts, even small is that stupid people aren't punished, and thus those who only got 2% and weren't greedy have to pay for the morons. The problem with this that other good people say "What the Fuck", pretty soon everybody is sucking everyones tit.<BR/><BR/>Besides even during the great depression only 25% were in real pain, 50% still got by, and we all know that the USA needs some pain, with all the political correctness, its time to understand the the USA is not the king of the world. That white folk aren't special, it would be good for the USA people to feel the pain that they have created all over the world.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-72820070198178003922007-08-04T08:53:00.000-07:002007-08-04T08:53:00.000-07:00Good News, Wall Street adivors are now telling the...Good News, Wall Street adivors are now telling the public to dump RE, MTG, REIT's, ... This means that ALL flipping of BEND commercial is going to come to a grinding halt. It's game-over for easy money to kick out little super-burrito.<BR/>***<BR/>Step 1<BR/>Separate the Wheat From the Chaff!<BR/><BR/>Start by shedding the weakest sectors and assets we've been warning you about all along:<BR/><BR/> * Home builders,<BR/><BR/> * Mortgage lenders,<BR/><BR/> * Investment real estate,<BR/><BR/> * Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs),<BR/><BR/> * Most banks, insurers and brokerage firms, and<BR/><BR/> * Companies that depend most heavily on the above.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, the fundamental outlook has continued to improve for the strong areas we've been highlighting …<BR/><BR/> * Foreign currencies, making new multi-decade highs, regardless of global stock markets,<BR/><BR/> * Oil, as prices approach their all-time high,<BR/><BR/> * Gold, likely to follow surging oil and foreign currencies, despite short-term setbacks, and<BR/><BR/> * Other resources, driven by the continuing rapid growth of the world's most populous nations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-14960526716866414782007-08-04T08:50:00.000-07:002007-08-04T08:50:00.000-07:00TT, I think that most agree it wasn't the depressi...TT, I think that most agree it wasn't the depression that caused the great-depression, it was the government reaction. This is what people are afraid of, certainly the bubble was caused by insane speculation, and thus a government reaction would be insane promises backed up by new insane laws.<BR/><BR/>Let's hope that this just slowly unravels over the next 2-3 years, and that government doesn't try to fix the problem.<BR/><BR/>The problem, is and always was regulation, $7/hr people shouldn't have been allowed to by $500k shevlin mini-me mansions. Somebody in the food chain should have said that this isn't 'AAA' it didn't happen because EVERYONE was getting 'rich'.<BR/><BR/>It's just like UGB in Bend, there is great state law, but nobody gives a shit, law only works, when there is an Attorney-General that is active. More laws will never fix a problem, only diligence in the first place.<BR/><BR/>The past 5-10 years have all been about shit eating denial DUBYA, TEFLON, ... Clinton, a fish rots from the head down. US people deserve their government, and the rest of the world is dumping dollars. Which means that we're going to have 20% interest very-very soon, in order to make the dollar once again valuable to foreigners.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-46924141028020637402007-08-04T08:43:00.000-07:002007-08-04T08:43:00.000-07:00>>I think that granny&grandpa shouldn't get bailed...>>I think that granny&grandpa shouldn't get bailed-out<BR/><BR/>Is a bailout even feasible? Isn't this one just too big? For this one, you'd have to tax people as much as you were giving them, which is a wealth redistribution from young people to old people.<BR/><BR/>Or, inflate your way out, which is just a rather arbitrary wealth distribution from careful people to less-careful ("greedy") people.<BR/><BR/>There's no "magic" place to go get the replacement money for the evaporated wealth.<BR/><BR/> --TTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-56622994255278349862007-08-04T08:28:00.000-07:002007-08-04T08:28:00.000-07:00"Are you kidding there's endless worldwide liquidi..."Are you kidding there's endless worldwide liquidity to sop these up." I'm convinced that people go looking for what they want to hear. Confirmation bias.<BR/>*<BR/>The thing with ALL this whether its a WALMART REIT buying the land under super-burrito, or BEND becoming cali, its ALL driven by pension money.<BR/>Granny and Granpa have it ALL tied up in stocks and bonds, and quickly all these 'assets' are becoming worthless.<BR/><BR/>Why would anyone buy a Bond that is back by RE knowing that its true value is penny's on the dollar? The meaning of 'AAA' means nothing. It take three months to withdrawl from a hedge fund, and right now most funds are just buying time like American Mortgage that went belly-up yesterday. They lied and lied, and deferred. Nobody can unwind because the underlying assets are penny's on the dollar.<BR/><BR/>Most pension funds have a fiduciary responsibility to NOT invest over 5% into risky investments, but 'AAA' is-was NOT risk, well it turns out it was 100% risk, nobody knows the bottom on this.<BR/><BR/>But one thing is CERTAIN, the granny's and grandpa's that didn't lose their money, are going to put cash back in the mattress, because what your seeing right now is a 'bank holiday' ( refusal to withdrawl ) not seen since the great depression. In the 1920's people kept their money in banks, today they keep their money in funds, and the funds right now are having a 'fund holiday' gradually as the funds 90 days expire for demand of withdrawal, those that cannot get cash to cover, have to close.<BR/><BR/>Over the next six months tons of grannys and grandpas will lose their life savings. Nobody is going to get bailed-out.<BR/><BR/>Nobody is going to loan to the RE bond biz, the government will have to step into to guarantee home loans, and screen. It's going to take a long time to put humpty-dumpty back together again.<BR/><BR/>Endless liquidity is when the government endlessly prints paper, or today extends electronic credit. The fact is when you buy something, and 90 days later its has no value, people tend to quit buying that object. That object is BONDS.<BR/><BR/>I think that granny&grandpa shouldn't get bailed-out, because they should have known there was no guaranteed 10% on your money. Its all about greed. There are many people who have only been getting 2% on treasurys, and they'll not lose a dime.<BR/><BR/>Unlimited liquidity came from the baby-boomers and there unlimited desire to live the retired life on interest. Too many people played the game, and now the whole game has collapsed. <BR/><BR/>Now its all back to basics. Which means - cash, bullets, bread, guns, shelter, gold, silver, canned-food.<BR/><BR/>I do think we might start seeing granny go live with the kids, at least the kids have an apartment, granny's got nothing.<BR/><BR/>The real issue here is that NOBODY is going to be buying CDO-CMO-RE-BONDS, which means that RE finance is going to be near zero. Which means that nobody can buy, and nobody can sell. Which means CASH is KING.<BR/><BR/>Which means buying homes 10% or less on the dollar for cash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-63911974725861009302007-08-04T08:12:00.000-07:002007-08-04T08:12:00.000-07:00I know, but this having Wall Street finance MTG wa...I know, but this having Wall Street finance MTG was all new, and this letting people who make $7/hr buy a $500k house was all new, ...<BR/><BR/>Then you have Bend where people who make $7/hr were allowed to buy 2-3 homes,...<BR/><BR/>Then you have builder's who 'financed' their shacks themselves with other-peoples-money. It was all going to crash hard.<BR/><BR/>Laslty, WRT wsj,forbes,economist, ... I know I read them all too, but the thing is its a commission industry, everybody is-was going for the ride making money. Nobody wanted to say the emperor had no clothes. There may have been a rare pundit, but generally they were humiliated quickly. <BR/><BR/>100's of 100's of Trillions have been flipped in the past ten years on LBO-CDO-BONDS, and all the time generating Billions of dollars in commission. Everyone has been making money.<BR/><BR/>Now its time for the lawyers to make money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com