tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post6503755727537500995..comments2023-07-07T00:32:17.629-07:00Comments on BendBubble2: This post is FULL OF LIESUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger106125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-13795751905231929232007-05-23T22:22:00.000-07:002007-05-23T22:22:00.000-07:00I grew up with our brown brothers. When I was a li...I grew up with our brown brothers. When I was a little kid in the 70's I went to school with lots of mexican kids, but they all spoke english and their parents did too. .. I went to school with mexican gangbangers, and trust me, people like our friend bendbust obviously never had to deal with it.<BR/><BR/>-<BR/><BR/>I think we must of all grew up in tough areas, I got bussed in LA all through the 60's in East-LA, yes I was always a white minority everywhere I went until I came to Oregon. Even here the brown-skin folk know its a better place for their kids simple problem is too many people, and this is exactly what you bastards are going to do to Bend.<BR/><BR/>By 'bastards' I'm referring to the get rich quick folk that want bend to grow.<BR/><BR/>Everyone wants better for their kids, even Hispanics, The real issue here is my white-trash brothers don't respect humanity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-2816507906826528882007-05-22T23:17:00.000-07:002007-05-22T23:17:00.000-07:00I grew up with our brown brothers. When I was a li...I grew up with our brown brothers. When I was a little kid in the 70's I went to school with lots of mexican kids, but they all spoke english and their parents did too. We were all part of the same culture regardless of our skin color. In the the early 80's things started to change. I went to school with mexican gangbangers, and trust me, people like our friend bendbust obviously never had to deal with it. The great thing about bend is you can legally carry a concealed handgun. So if things go the way I know they will if we keep a large illegal population here, at least people can protect themselves. I am not a racist, but when people refuse to assimilate into a culture you are going to have serious problems. Look at France. Massive riots by Morroccans who refuse to become part of france. They only want to take. And if you read this Mr. bendbust, do me two favors. Learn to spell and communicate in proper english, and make some legit arguments, not just a bunch of bullshit slogans.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-19138503361499534882007-05-22T17:20:00.000-07:002007-05-22T17:20:00.000-07:00before all their little mijo's get old enough to s...before all their little mijo's get old enough to start doing drive by's<BR/><BR/>Booyah.....! That's exactly what we'll end up with. Apparently we're all Mexican bashing because we want the illegals to be prosecuted go figure.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-17244531135719625932007-05-22T16:48:00.000-07:002007-05-22T16:48:00.000-07:00Then let's hurry up and pop the bubble so all the ...Then let's hurry up and pop the bubble so all the mexicans will leave before all their little mijo's get old enough to start doing drive by's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-29607524724152768582007-05-22T15:52:00.000-07:002007-05-22T15:52:00.000-07:00It's too bad that the mere mention of "mexicans" b...It's too bad that the mere mention of "mexicans" became a forum for their bashing.<BR/><BR/>The MAIN original point, and I think that it is a valid point is that there would have been nobody to buy the little shacks, had the mexicans not gotten the money via sub-prime mtg's. Many contractors believe that its the mexicans that bought the shacks in Redmond, and Madras, that made it possible to sell the dumps in the first place. The new money of course moved everyone up, because the low end finally slowed.<BR/><BR/>In summary the mexican is a critical part of the bend-bubble. If the political forces did force exit on these people then indeed it would be a stake in the heart of central oregon real-estate.<BR/><BR/>Lastly a critical point that the IHTBYB has formally mentioned is that extended family's living ten to a house is a common mexican practice, and thus for them its completely affordable to purchase all the 3,000 sq-ft mcMansions that are on the market, and when they come down it will be the mexicans that can rationally purchase them<BR/>.<BR/><BR/>Have a good day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-68044693445251348672007-05-22T09:50:00.000-07:002007-05-22T09:50:00.000-07:00100 Comments!That's gotta be some sort of record. ...<B>100 Comments!</B><BR/><BR/>That's gotta be some sort of record. Of course, it had to go to White Slavery Gay Construction Workers and Bashing Mexicans to get there... but I think it's worth it.<BR/><BR/>Someone tell me you can hear the words "Village People" and NOT sing Macho Man. <BR/><BR/><B>Hey! Hey! Hey, Hey, Hey!<BR/><BR/>Macho, macho MAN! I want to be a MACHO MAN!</B><BR/><BR/>Hmmm... this is a sign I need to write another post....IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-3277029426040605982007-05-22T09:42:00.000-07:002007-05-22T09:42:00.000-07:00.....Most of the generals are closet queers...............Most of the generals are closet queers.........<BR/><BR/>There's a lot more homosexuality in the construction business than, well, just about anyone in the construction business would care to admit.<BR/><BR/>*****<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the validation. The point is that our Generals would much rather have a white Hunk running around all summer with his shirt off, than a bus-load of tired mexicans.<BR/><BR/>There is NO sex appeal or status in having mexicans. Its all about money, and when you have NO money, and your bleeding because of over-building you must cut back on the pleasures of life. <BR/><BR/>If and when things get 'good' again in Bend, a new generation of well hung white kids running around all summer on job-sites in shorts will return.<BR/><BR/>Is that a 2by4 in your pocket, or are you just glad to see me?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-38716242676237010452007-05-22T08:07:00.000-07:002007-05-22T08:07:00.000-07:00My esteemed Ben Bust. My name is jambo. I am here ...My esteemed Ben Bust. My name is jambo. I am here in Zimbabwe. We too have a real estate over valuation. Our mud huts have gone from one goat to six goat in only two year. Every morning I enjoy reading about your Ben Oregon. You may be wondering why we have internet. Long ago a Mister Gates came to our village in zimbabwe and gave everyone a computer. We also have WIFI. We still don't have potable water or enough food. The condom boxes distributed are still always empty. Soon my husband may trade up to a larger hut as he thinks it may be worth a dozen goats next year. I wish I could get him to read about Ben Oregon. Everyone in our village is educated . Thank for for the thought provoking information.<BR/><BR/>JamboAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-51286458275252172342007-05-22T03:18:00.000-07:002007-05-22T03:18:00.000-07:00.....Most of the generals are closet queers...............Most of the generals are closet queers.........<BR/><BR/>There's a lot more homosexuality in the construction business than, well, just about anyone in the construction business would care to admit.<BR/><BR/>It's not a coincidence that the gay mobster Vito on The Sopranos was a contractor. Or that one of the members of The Village People was a construction worker. Or that gay nightclubs are often called something like "The Toolbox" or "The 2 x 4" or "The Drill Bit" - you get the picture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-86051304745771275792007-05-21T22:02:00.000-07:002007-05-21T22:02:00.000-07:00Yo, BendbustI refuse to get into a battle of wits ...Yo, Bendbust<BR/><BR/>I refuse to get into a battle of wits with an unarmed man so lay off the meth or crack pipe you seem to be hitting before you post your rants.<BR/><BR/>Problem with your argument is that by not talking about the real problem which is enforcing our immigration laws by not denouncing the fact many of them (Mexicans) are hear illegally you are encouraging their behaviour WHICH BY THE WAY IS ILLEGAL. No worries pal I'm not a general contractor just a guy who is tired of bleeding hearts like you coming to the aid of criminals.<BR/><BR/>The "Illegal Mexican issue" is and will continue to have a very adverse affect on our economy and the country as a whole until we deal with it appropriately, which is to start enforcing the laws.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-85133074880221902152007-05-21T21:26:00.000-07:002007-05-21T21:26:00.000-07:00I can write until I'm BLUE in the face, if if a on...I can write until I'm BLUE in the face, if if a one of YOU had shit for brains, you would realize that the Mexicans ARE NOT the reasons that that they're hiring the Mexicans. Most of the generals are closet queers, and would much rather hire $50/hr white boyz with big muscles. The problem is that because of the bend-bubble, and the BLEED of paying for payments of houses that don't sell there is NO money to pay the subs, thus the mexicans pick up slack.<BR/><BR/>Blame NOT the brown man, but the stupid white-trash that runs bend that floundered all their money on the great real-estate scam.<BR/><BR/>Now that there is NO money, and nobody can afford to work the brown man pick's up the ashes of your stupidity, and YET your too DAMN DUMB to see your own failure. You blame those that eat the crumbs of your stupidity for your own starvation. White folk really are the most stupid folk on the planet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-6113192360246035722007-05-21T13:48:00.000-07:002007-05-21T13:48:00.000-07:00The only way to pay for the retirement of baby boo...The only way to pay for the retirement of baby boomers is with a massive influx of young labor<BR/><BR/>There is probably more truth in that statement than I want to admit. I have a feeling that retirement will not exist as the entitlement that people have come to enjoy rather it will be a perk of those that were able to invest well and for the wealthy. Many many people will be working into their 70's or until dead because social security ain't gonna get it done. Anybody under 40 better have a back up plan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-70755195095350579642007-05-21T13:39:00.000-07:002007-05-21T13:39:00.000-07:00I think that the country will go bust if we DON'T ...I think that the country will go bust if we DON'T allow massive immigration (I'd prefer legal to illegal, of course).<BR/><BR/>The only way to pay for the retirement of baby boomers is with a massive influx of young labor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-37121343311467653092007-05-21T12:04:00.000-07:002007-05-21T12:04:00.000-07:00I'm sure I stepped on a few toes.Not mine. I am b...<B>I'm sure I stepped on a few toes.</B><BR/><BR/>Not mine. I am baffled as to why we have made a law in this country, but have chosen not to enforce it at all. It's not right-wing insanity, it's more confusion as to why we are purposefully creating "gray-zones" in the law.<BR/><BR/>As citizens it is thrust upon us to figure out the "real thing" from fluff. So sneaking into the US is "OK" implicitly because of the lack of enforcement... what's next? Petty Theft? Exploitation of Illegals? Rape of Illegals?<BR/><BR/>But it is the implicit punishment of legal immigrants that gets my goat. We reward those who circumvent & break the law, and punish those who don't. Unbelievable. This simply gives people a huge incentive to break the law. And if they'll break immigration laws with total impunity, what's next? And talking to left-wing nuts about this is impossible:<BR/><BR/>Nazi: "By not enforcing this law, we telegraph that breaking all our laws is OK."<BR/>Lefty: "What! YOU'RE A RACIST!"<BR/>Nazi: "No, I just think selective enforcement of our laws leaves it open to citizen interpretation about was is and what is not legal."<BR/>Lefty: "You WANT BLACK SLAVERY! How many BLACKS HAVE YOU KILLED TODAY! You want to KILL EVERYONE WHO ISN'T WHITE!"<BR/>Nazi: "I'm not sure what you're talking about."<BR/>Lefty: "WHITE SUPREMACIST!"<BR/><BR/>And so it goes.<BR/><BR/>What happens to Canadian, English illegals? I am pretty sure we get them out. But if you're of the right country of origin, and you break certain US laws, you are given benefits denied even our own citizens. THIS is racism of the highest order. And the left is rabid in it's defense. But by God, try to have a 2 second rational conversation, and you'll get howls of NAZI RACIST CORPORATE OVERLORDS and other absolute nonsense.<BR/><BR/>I try to leave my political leanings out of here, but this is an issue with real consequences on the Cent OR economy, and RE. And if you're an American citizen in the trades around here, you are essentially unable to compete. And it is the result of a statute that we are unwilling to enforce. Instead of this hypocrisy, why don't we simply open out borders to anyone who wants in? Make explicit what is happening already.<BR/><BR/>Of course, we wouldn't really be a country at that point. We'd be the Worlds dumping ground. Hell, if I was running some ass-backwards third world turd, I'd ship unwanteds here and close my prisons. Be a big money saver.IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-73610607480474679402007-05-21T11:02:00.000-07:002007-05-21T11:02:00.000-07:00Bendbust you have some great comments and I would ...Bendbust you have some great comments and I would agree with you on most points but one you are dead wrong about " our Mexican brothers"<BR/><BR/>"A few weeks ago I talked with some very prominent builders of the area, and they had an interesting theory. That the ENTIRE Bend boom would have never happened if it were NOT for the Mexicans, they bought the little dumps that white folk would NOT live in, and they fixed them up"<BR/><BR/>I was born and raised in Oregon and there were very few Mexicans in C.O. ten years ago, news flash all the different trades and work was getting done, so the old argument that Mexicans do the jobs that white guys won't is a load of crap...! You are right about it being a political issue though because I blame our government for not cracking down on all of these greedy ass general contractors and subs that are using illegal help and turning even a bigger profit off of them. All well and good for the generals but they are under cutting everyone else trying to make a living wage and why you say? It boils down to culture because Mexicans will live 10 to 15 people to one house that is how they afford these homes and are willing to work for cheap because they don't get turned in that way; however, I don't want to live next to that, listing to mariachie music and the punk kids that always come out of first generation immigrants legal or not.<BR/><BR/>I would urge you to call me a culturist not a racist. The CCB should be leveling fines so heavily on generals and other subs that use illegal workers that it would darn near put them out of business and that way they would quit doing it in a hurry. As soon as there is no supply of work for our illegals then so goes the demand for them.<BR/><BR/>I'm not saying that some of them don't do good work but that is not the point. Many of them are here illegally and that is a major slap in the face to every immigrant that came here legally and assimilated into the culture. <BR/><BR/>Mark my words this influx of illegals is bankrupting our country, there are countys in S. Texas that are going bankrupt and I'm sure places in S.Cal. Once they come it is very hard to get the culture back the way it was. County assistance programs become taxed, hospitals that are delivering mexican babies one after another, food stamps the wic program you name it the tax payer gets fleeced..! I love children dearly as I have two of my own and hope to have more but I'm not having the tax payers flip the bill for them and heaven forbid especially don't want to pay for ones that shouldn't be here in the first place. I know they are just in search of a better life but some times life isn't fair, hey I'd like a million bucks and a big big boat to take to shasta but I don't have them. Yep your right I feel blessed to have been born into a free country but that doesn't mean I have to be a bleeding heart and accept illegals into this community and the culture they bring with them. You can bet your ass that when you travel abroad other countries don't bend over backwards to give you a hand out or allow you to be there illegally.<BR/><BR/>I tell everyone the next time you have to hire out some work on your home or landscaping talk with the owner of the company and ask who is doing the work and prod a little deeper try to find out if they are knowingly using illegal workers because I know many of you think you are just saving a buck I contend you are contributing to ruining a way of life for many here in this community. Making a conscious decision as to where your money goes and what you are supporting will help this community in the long run.<BR/><BR/>Ok, let the daggers fly I'm sure I stepped on a few toes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-57636524812324671982007-05-20T14:50:00.000-07:002007-05-20T14:50:00.000-07:00OK, Paul, time to make nice with bendbb.OK, Paul, time to make nice with bendbb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-42781928706313610272007-05-20T12:43:00.000-07:002007-05-20T12:43:00.000-07:00> I wish [BendBB would] do more> Google spreadshee...> I wish [BendBB would] do more<BR/>> Google spreadsheets, with the<BR/>> data cut up in a lot of ways,<BR/>> across many sheets. Then ask for<BR/>> feedback, or even open up the<BR/>> sheets to public collaboration.<BR/><BR/>Paul-doh!, I'm not a spreadsheet guy like you are, but I'll be happy to give you a copy of my entire database so you can slice and dice the data anyway you want.<BR/><BR/>-- bendbbAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-80281759769504414192007-05-20T11:05:00.000-07:002007-05-20T11:05:00.000-07:00BendBust-You have posted some of the best and thou...BendBust-<BR/>You have posted some of the best and thought provoking analyses that I have seen anywhere in a long time.<BR/><BR/>Do a few more and you could put them together into a good short book.<BR/><BR/>Keep it up.<BR/><BR/>BTW, I agree with most of your conclusions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-68923145660657500962007-05-20T08:17:00.000-07:002007-05-20T08:17:00.000-07:00By the way, Florida is even worse than you might t...By the way, Florida is even worse than you might think now. Job losses in South Florida. Florida schools are actually LOSING kids.<BR/><BR/>In other words, the housing slowdown there has had genuine effects. This helps the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia, as ex-Northerners become "halfbacks" unwilling to return to the job-challenged icy north.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-54423394427624082752007-05-19T23:46:00.000-07:002007-05-19T23:46:00.000-07:00Les Schwab - The Passage of a Patriarch Will Chang...Les Schwab - The Passage of a Patriarch Will Change Central Oregon Forever<BR/><BR/>The passage of Les-Schwab {LS} is the most significant point of the Bend-Bubble. The ENTIRE house of cards by the Political Elite of Central-Oregon are riding on this one. We're talking ten's of billions of dollars for ALL the BOSS-HOGS. All dependent upon one family.<BR/><BR/>The choice is their's do they enrich the family, or do they turn Central Oregon into Central California.<BR/><BR/>***<BR/><BR/>Before Sam Walton died Walmart only sold MADE-in-USA, then the family took over, and NOW they sell ONLY made-in-china, surviving family's typically do things that would make founders roll over in their graves,...<BR/><BR/>The LS plan was to move LS to bend { juniper-ridge }, e.g. move HQ away from prinee-vile,<BR/><BR/>The family knows that this is a good time to sell the business, now that the patriarch is gone,<BR/><BR/>LS is the the anchor in the BEND disneyland known as Juniper-Ridge, if the family sells to michelin, and/or firestone, then Bend will never have its gary-indiana, and there will be no justification of buiilding the new I-305 fwy from the dalles to k-falls,<BR/><BR/><BR/>LS did well building an empire where he did, .e.g. in the middle of nowhere, prinee-vile is litterally in the center of Oregon,<BR/><BR/>The smart thing for the family to do would be to sell their west-coast franchise to a major and create a family trust so that the next five hundred thousand generation's of schwabs would never have to work. A good legal trust mechanism could take the sales assets and create a trust so that all Schwab's over 18 would get a million/year into eternity. Done correctly this includes ALL offspring from the family tree forever. This is very common in old family's with wealth that exceeds a billion dollars.<BR/><BR/>Dumping a TON of good money into a needless move from prineville to Bend is NO guarantee of building a business. Rarely does a family ever have the passion and drive of a founder.<BR/><BR/>It's going to be interesting, ALL of Central Oregon is dependent upon the LS moving to Bend, even the expansion of the Redmond Airport is dependent.<BR/><BR/>If LS family decides to make the best move in the family interest aka WALMART you can expect to see the entire Central-Oregon 2030 plan un-ravel,<BR/><BR/>There's a OLD joke from the day's of glen-jackson, that Fred-Meyer had paid for every off-ramp on the I-5 fwy, the fact is that FM did buy land all the corridor, knew were the off-ramps would be, and made more on real-estate than merchandising. For those that don't know oregon history glen-jackson was the father of the oregon fwy biz, the story is everyone of his friends became a millionaire, as he gave them a mile of fwy to build, and that was the profit, ... Today there is a BIG bridge in PDX called the glen-jackson bridge, guess where its at, ...<BR/><BR/>The same for your I-305 in Central-Oregon, the PLAN of moving les-schwab from prine-ville to Bend is that you'll need modern fwy infrastructure, which means Billions of dollars for those get the building contracts, and know where to BUY LAND where there will be off-ramps, ...<BR/><BR/>All this dependent on the death of one man, ... My dollar bet is that the family does a Walmart, e.g. something 180 degree's from what the patriarch would have done.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Only in Oregon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-74514313153928270512007-05-19T21:30:00.000-07:002007-05-19T21:30:00.000-07:00Last issue was a review of Builder's, Developer's,...Last issue was a review of Builder's, Developer's, Contractor's - The Boss Men<BR/><BR/>These are the folks that have their life saving's at risk in Bend. There is good news, folks that specialize in remodeling have work, perhaps plenty of work. Like they say folks have to have a place to live, and their are lots of people in Central-Oregon that have money, and didn't get caught up in the get-rich-quick Real-Estate game. Folks that just want to have a nice kitchen are where the money is now, if you have a good name, risk will be low.<BR/><BR/>This report will deal with the working folk - the sub-contractors, and the Mexicans. Eventually I would like to do a whole report on the mexicans, in fact to be honest I think there should be a whole blog on Mexican Workers in Central Oregon. Before I begin let me just mention my favorite quote "When in Mexico they ask you how many children you have, When in the USA they ask what you do, what you drive". Latin American people have a heart and their hard working folk. So if your trying to read bad stuff about these people you'll not hear it from me.<BR/><BR/>ISSUE-1 The Status of Sub- Contractor's in Bend<BR/><BR/>These are the working folk, the dry-wallers, finish-carpenters, electricians, ... the folks that work 6-7 days a week building. One common theme that I have found from all that I have talked with over the past few weeks, is that they're getting out of Central-Oregon as soon as they can sell their house. They still think that they can out of their house what they paid. They feel great pain for their bosses who have 'BLEEDING' of the worst kind sitting on million dollar homes on Awbrey now for over a year, everyone is waiting. I haven't seen any that concur that if you want to sell you must reduce your price. The common theme is that just one more article in "Outside Magazine", just one more "Inc." Best city in USA, will cause everyone to want to buy again. ASAP<BR/><BR/>What I found MOST interesting with the SUB's is that their pain started last year. Most were averaging $45/hr until last summer, then it dropped to $25/hr, and now its ALL piece work. Many have told me that the piece work yields about $15/hr. This reminds of our computer business, where programmers have gone from 60/hr to 15/hr competing with Indians and Chinese in just a few years. The SUB's I talked with, and NOTE the great majority of folks I interviewed are the TOP SUB's at North-West Crossing's, these folks are already lining up Renovation work, they're good. This notion of leaving Central-Oregon is the MOST consistent theme I have heard. To date I have not found a single SUB or GENERAL that intends to stay here. I find this amazing, and note they average time these folks have been here is ten years, these are not folks that just go here in the last five years.<BR/><BR/>There isn't much anger about the drop in hourly pay, as they know the General's { I'll be referring to the developer/ builder as a general } are struggling with their bleeding on the SPEC house's they cannot sell.<BR/><BR/>Like I mentioned in the BUILDER's report earlier this week, sure everyone is busy-busy, but the SUBS are busy because they're having to work harder for less, and they have NO CHOICE. I did not find one that was willing to seriously reduce the value of their home to get out of here. The consistent plan is "I must sell my 2500 sqft mcMansion for $750K to get out enough cash to start anew in Hawaii, Maine, ...anywhere but Central-Oregon"<BR/><BR/>The BLEEDING here is massive, as a hard-core ASSHOLE-BASTARD businessman the first maxim is 'cut-your-losses', and let your profits run. Its one thing for wacko's to have lost their life saving's on the DOT-NET/DOT-COM 2000 stock market crash, but here we have folks that are continually dumping thousands of dollars a month into a depreciating asset. THIS IS NOT BUSINESS. Folks in Bend didn't buy their home for a place to live, its ALL speculation, and now they'll keep feeding the monster "bleeding" as they call it. This all reminds me of the other-guy has it worse phenomenon, the SUB's are bleeding a few thousand a month in mcMansion they don't need, and the General's are bleeding ten-thousand++ a month on Spec-Homes they cannot sell at last years high price. Thus the Sub's don't think they have it bad, because they know people that have it worse. This is a syndrome normally seen in concentration camps.<BR/><BR/>My mission here is not to wallow in the pain of my fellow man. My mission is find out what the hell is going on, and as you ALL know, your not going to find out on your local media, because 'FEEL-GOOD' is what our entire USA economy is about, and on TV and the Main Stream media your only going to hear things that make you feel-good. This is because of advertising, it is a psychological fact that good-news makes you shop at fred-meyer, and bad news makes you not shop, and freddy's is the biggest advertiser in Oregon, ergo good news for ALL. Shop until you drop, remember what dubya said after 911, "Go Shopping:".<BR/><BR/>In every instance I feel for these guys, and MY advice is sell and get out, and don't keep bleeding. My MOST optimistic estimate for recovery is three years, and this only if the building stops, and the inventory is absorbed. We all know that niether of these is even close to happening. My conservative estimate is ten years for Bend to reduce the inventory. Note, that Oregon has NOT had a serious correction since 1983, and that took three years to work out. The difference then was $80k homes went to $30k, now its $750k going to $250k. The scale is the same, but the debt obligation is horrendous, note that if you were honest in 1985, you could work off your loss in one working year, as some folks did make $40k, today the obligation will be $500k, and that's ten years of income. This is a WHOLE new ballgame, working this one off could take years, also the PAIN may make 1/2 the population NEVER come back to Real-Estate for a generation. ... Study you history, we're going to need a BIG-WAR to pull ourselves out of this one.<BR/><BR/>The SUB's I talked with never dreamed that the Bend construction boom would stop, two years ago everyone at NorthWest Crossing had a brand-new BIG TRUCK, with toys in it - wave-runner in the summer, and dirt-bikes in the winter, sometime last year the toys disappeared "they sold them", and right now folks are trying to trade in their BIG trucks. Right now nobody is showing off their toys, they're long gone, everyone is to busy trying to pay their house payments so they can wait for the recovery. Again, the common feeling is just one more positive Outside Magazine ranking like the one last week about Bend being Better than Moab for mtn-biking. I'm a mtn-biker, I love bend and moab. All the restraurants in moab suck, and bend these days is only about yuppy food. I only eat at Bend Mexican places: long-board, rigobertos, and super-burrrito. Moab has way better trails and stuff outside of town, in town their is nothing to do, except drink 3% mormon beer. Bend is ONLY about shopping at the Old-MIll. Of course Outside-Magazine is ONLY about advertising and selling its advertisters products which can all be found in Bend. This is NOT going to save Bend, besides the kind of people that are need to rescue these folks is NOT the kind of people who will buy $750k homes when they move to Bend. The common thing I see now is if these folks could do it over they would have got a 1100 sqft house, NOT a 2600 sq-ft mcMansion. Everyone that made the greed move from 1,000-sqft to 3,000-sq-ft realizes they made a tragic mistake.<BR/><BR/>So there we have it our SUB's are waiting for 1,000's of folks that want to buy $750k home in Bend to move here, and the general's that hire them are waiting for folks to buy their one million dollar home's that have been sitting empty for over a year.<BR/><BR/>This is classic depression, I'm talking 1930's, it was the BIG homes that went empty, and nobody bought because of upkeep and burn-rate, the little homes are the homes of people and they held up well. Like I have been saying since I started this blog, the avg Bend income is $60k/yr, that means the avg home should be $240k, stay in that ballpark and you'll survive the storm.<BR/><BR/>What everybody in BEND did is buy a mcMansion with the idea that the 1/2 million home would go to one million, and that is why they want to sell for $750k, problem is there are NO buyers. Also Jumbo-Loans are pretty much dead now, a jumbo is over $350k, if you have 20% down, and buy a nice house low-ball in Bend for $280k, you can get financed, but if you try and by one of these 3,000 sqft $750k mcMansions with 5% down you'll get no-where. This is why the stuff ain't selling, and NOBODY has the cash.<BR/><BR/>In summary on this issue "cut your losses", your home is not a business, treat it as a business, BLEEDING 1,000's of dollars a month for years is NOT a business tactic. To lose your life-saving's is one thing, but to lose your future income is insane.<BR/><BR/>ISSUE-2 THE MEXICAN { Sincere apology latin brother, I know very few brown-skins are from Mexico ... Note, I consider myself white-trash amigo }<BR/><BR/>I have talked a lot about folks average white guys with NO education that came to Bend bought a little house, and SOLD it and then bought $750k home up on Awbrey, so WHO bought the little homes?? This is where our Mexican comes in ...<BR/><BR/>The mexican's in Central Oregon are our Sub-Prime Support system, they're buying the homes that our white trash has been selling. Thus they are the foundation or the leg's of the entire Central-Oregon Ponzi Scheme. For the past ten years groups of mexicans have been buying the under $300k homes in Madras, Redmond, Bend and this is what allowed the white-kids to get into the mc-mansions on the hill. What is very interesting is that if just for a moment that DUBYA actually enforced the ILLEGAL-STATUS they would in effect completely destroy central oregon real-estate as that is our foundation.<BR/><BR/>In the 70's large tracts exactly like nw-crossings were built in Tustin/Irvine in California, these were the upper middle class places, today they're all lived in by Mexicans. This is a good thing, otherwise the home would have been bulldozed. Basically what happened is that LARGE expensive homes got built, and then an area fell out of favor with the high-income economic group. This is exactly what has happened to Bend.<BR/><BR/>The Mexicans do the yards in Bend, they build the homes, the current USA statistic is 3% agriculture, 30% construction, and 65% service. If you eat out anywhere in Bend, the odd's are your mexican brother washes your dishes.<BR/><BR/>A few weeks ago I talked with some very prominent builders of the area, and they had an interesting theory. That the ENTIRE Bend boom would have never happened if it were NOT for the Mexicans, they bought the little dumps that white folk would NOT live in, and they fixed them up. Then the white folk that could-would NEVER have moved up decided they could play the rich mans game, so they bought a $500k 3,000sqft mcMansion, again this would NOT have happened if the Mexican had NOT bought their shack.<BR/><BR/>The point is that if Bend area actually did something hostile towards its Mexicans the AREA real-estate biz would fall like a house of cards. This politically is a VERY important point.<BR/><BR/>Gated community's like highlands at broken-top, will NOT allow mexicans entry in their cars, but they come in by the busload to do roofs and drywall, ditto for anything 'morrisette'<BR/><BR/>Like I said A WHOLE BLOG needs to be dedicated to the BEND Brown-Skin folk. I speak spanish, so in the coming months my desire is to start interviewing some Mexican home-owner's and sub's, one of the questions I'm interested in is are they moving are staying. Like I have said not a one white-sub or white-builder I have talked with plans to stay.<BR/><BR/>COMMENT: I came to Bend forty years ago because I loved the nature, there is NOT a single damn thing that white folk have brought to Bend in the last forty years that I couldn't do without. Note, I didn't come here to MAKE-MONEY, I came here to live, the life-style, but EVERY DAMN builder and SUB I have talked to clearly has stated they came to build and make a buck, and when the game was over to move-on. That said SHOULD we have crocodile tears for these folks? Given that inherently the VAST MAJORITY of folk that have moved to Bend since 1980's really only came here to play the gold-rush. Life is NOT fair, nobody is entitled to wealth. I have already written how to obtain wealth, and it doesn't happen quick. What everybody in Bend did was the same stupid thing, they started in a little mill-house, and then sold and bought up in the highlands, they weren't happy that there little $80k shack went to $300k, they had to have a $500k mcMansion go to a Million, now 1,000's and 1,000's and have 1,000's of SHEEP in Bend are stuck with the mcMansions.<BR/><BR/>What will come of it?? I'll tell you as I know exactly, they'll be bought and occupied by the Mexicans ten to a house, and they'll make them homes, and someday you'll drive through NW-Crossing and on sunday every garage door will be open and folks will selling tacos. This is what Irvine is like today, not thirty years ago it was the same game. White trash in orange-county sold their anaheim house, and bought in Irvine with the idea of becoming millionaires ALL these homes were sold on auction where you had to pay lottery just for the right to buy, and where are they today?? Its little mexico.<BR/><BR/><BR/>SUMMARY:<BR/><BR/>In the last article I covered the BUILDER, and this article the SUB, and then the SUB-SUB { mexican }<BR/><BR/>I don't know how many years our Builders, Subs, can continue bleeding. Given that in 6 months the ONLY construction will be remodeling there simply will NOT be enough work for all to stay, and thus there will be foreclosures, and most of these folks did the nothing-down game, and so they have NO wiggle room to reduce the price.<BR/><BR/>There seems to be a general feeling that "Juniper Ridge" is the savior if we could just get it going faster, then all the manufacturer's would come, and Bend could become a Gary-Indiana over night, and all would be good. It's quite amazing how growth for the sake of growth takes on, its quite like cancer. It would NOT take too much nasty manufacturing on Juniper Ridge to pollute everything to the North. Redmond and Madras will be Love-Canal, does anyone care? Not if it means I can sell my house for $750k and get the hell out of Central Oregon.<BR/><BR/>It seems to me as someone who had another twenty and plans to die in Bend, that the folks who are running the show aren't in here for the long-term. How in hell did this happen? Does anyone give a shit? Of course not the corporations have been doing this since the 1980's replacing pensions with IOU's just read the Bartlett&Steel book "American what went wrong" { 1986 } The USA corporate leaders have been buying haciendas in Spain and Italy, everybody plans on cashing out and retiring somewhere else. Thus everything is disposable, nothing is sacred, everything is temporal. Everything is NOW, I want it NOW.<BR/><BR/>My only comment is that perhaps like minded people can raise to the occasion and save that which has NOT already been destroyed in Bend.Flickahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04922093419649250110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-30232969164498249702007-05-19T11:34:00.000-07:002007-05-19T11:34:00.000-07:00hey paul, your blog space rocks.The bend economy b...<B>hey paul, your blog space rocks.The bend economy blog site is freakin' boring as hell. Hardly anyone posts on there. Bend bb is a numbers nazi, and doesn't have a clue. You however , my friend, are not afraid to get down and dirty. I love it</B><BR/><BR/>Thanks much Dude. But much credit goes to kick-ass comments, positive & negative alike. <BR/><BR/>Like BEM, who does not have to play the elder statesman anymore, has begun to <I>get medieval on our ass!</I><BR/><BR/>A long way to go though. The fact that I and many others have to post our opinions anonymously speaks volumes about how this place is run. I would have no problem identifying myself in just about any other town in the US, with respect to the RE business. Virtually everyone knows that if you speak ill of the Cent OR RE juggernaut, you will be ostracized probably out of a job or out of business. This place is run like a cult.<BR/><BR/><B>I AM PAUL-DOH! CULT BUSTER!</B><BR/><BR/>And I should say that BendBB has a real opportunity for greatness. The guy has got a vast myriad of factual data. But those big copy/paste blobs are too much. The human mind can't deal w/ that very well. I wish he'd do more Google spreadsheets, with the data cut up in a lot of ways, across many sheets. Then ask for feedback, or even open up the sheets to public collaboration.<BR/><BR/>He and I also have different ideas on the role of a moderator. I would probably feel strange going after some of the comments I disagree with, if I also acted as a filter on those comments. That's why this thing is wide open. I give as much as I get in here, and I really enjoy the comments area more than anything.<BR/><BR/>BendBB is the captain over there. I actually posted over there FAR MORE than I did here, for a long time. Then <I>something</I> happened, and long story short, I could either stay over there or jump ship. I jumped. We have different philosophies.<BR/><BR/>I feel like it's really my job to take a different perspective of what many people see as common, accepted knowledge. When I first got here (Cent OR), I never really questioned a lot of what I read or saw on TV, until the one-sidedness of it started to dawn on me. Then a lot of "news" pieces started to sound like slavish PR to specific interests. Then over many, many months & years I would string together bald-faced lying that no one seemed to care about or catch, or maybe they did but there was no outlet for exposing them. And these lies were all in One Direction; the SOLD direction. The Move Here Now direction. The Bring Your Money direction. The Cult direction.<BR/><BR/>THAT just bugs the hell out of me. News should be about uncovering lies. We are being sold lies as facts (maybe this is the direction this country is going. I see more eye-rolling bullshit on the news than anywhere.). The legitimacy of local news outlets is being rapidly undermined here. I hope they (The Bulletin, KTVZ, et al) will engage in some self-examination, and choose to serve viewers over Boss Hog. Right now it is clearly Boss Hog they serve.<BR/><BR/>There is a place for Bullshit. It's called advertising. When you sell out your editorial standards, you simply destroy your own credibility. The Bulletin should provide Boss Hog an outlet to spew his bullshit, it's called The Space Ad. But when you cross over and mix news with bullshit, you get bullshit. And at that point you can't even sell the ad space, cuz the wheat & the chaff are so thoroughly mixed it's impossible to discern one from the other, and people will not pay to read page upon page of crap & lies.IHateToBurstYourBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01660687201024720176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-41229893200564119732007-05-18T23:11:00.000-07:002007-05-18T23:11:00.000-07:00Pretty much the whole east coast gets humid. It do...Pretty much the whole east coast gets humid. It doesn't bother me, but some people complain.<BR/><BR/>I've lived there and I like it a lot. But everyone is different. Some hate it. Some love it.<BR/><BR/>I think NC is great. You don't really understand its demographics until you see how many people live in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York. It's going to have a lot of growth for a long time.<BR/><BR/>It gets a lot of people running away from Florida, as well.<BR/><BR/>Look at house prices. 99% school, community pool, 4 bedroom, $200k.<BR/><BR/>I'm not saying I'm going. But I might.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-42036645642561140242007-05-18T22:58:00.000-07:002007-05-18T22:58:00.000-07:00hey paul, your blog space rocks.The bend economy b...hey paul, your blog space rocks.The bend economy blog site is freakin' boring as hell. Hardly anyone posts on there. Bend bb is a numbers nazi, and doesn't have a clue. You however , my friend, are not afraid to get down and dirty. I love it, although, I wonder sometimes if I should get a life. Nahh, this is way too much fun. I've been here ten years, and have worked all kinds of jobs since I got here. Sad, but back then you could live a decent life on 12 bucks an hour. Wages here have not gone up much when compared to the cost of living. If I didn't have so many good friends here, and my kids weren't in school, I would definitely bail. Oh well, keep it up, I love this site, you can't make up the kind of drama the RE bust is gonna create. Ditto on the great info bend bust provided. I have a sneaking suspicion some people are going to be quite surprised at how big things are going to blow around here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-14326058480536914272007-05-18T21:42:00.000-07:002007-05-18T21:42:00.000-07:00I know for the younger crowd with and without kids...I know for the younger crowd with and without kids, I guess it is supposed to be a nice family place can't say because I haven't been but I know a few people from Bend that headed to Ashville NC. You guys are right NC does seem to be a hot spot right now but it just makes me think like everything it has a cycle to run and then it's not cool anymore.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com