tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post6309089751840022450..comments2023-07-07T00:32:17.629-07:00Comments on BendBubble2: "Best Buyers Market In 20 Years, Can I Fuck You?"Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger247125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-47622661365629785952008-02-24T15:14:00.000-08:002008-02-24T15:14:00.000-08:00\\|//No quick recovery seen through 2008By Anna So...\\|//<BR/><BR/><B><BR/>No quick recovery seen through 2008</B><BR/>By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin<BR/>Published: February 24. 2008 4:00AM PST<BR/><BR/>La Pine resident Jack Spencer spends every morning on the phone, calling various employers, looking for work. The former employee at Interfor Pacific’s sawmill in Gilchrist was laid off three weeks ago because of the falling demand for wood products since the housing market cooled, he said.<BR/><BR/>“If a person doesn’t have help from friends, parents or other relatives, it’s pretty scary,” said Spencer, who lives off the kindness of his parents and food stamps. “I guess I could find a job as far away as Bend, pumping gas or something and making $8 to $9 per hour, but with gas prices, I don’t know if that’s feasible.”<BR/><BR/>In the meantime, Spencer will continue working with local employment resources and temporary hiring agencies to find a job.<BR/><BR/>Like many people looking for work in the High Desert, pickings are slim for Spencer’s line of expertise as the region’s housing market pulls the economy south, according to a recent measure of the region’s economic health.<BR/><BR/><BR/>“We’re seeing a wider penetration of these (housing) problems,” said Timothy Duy, adjunct assistant professor at the University of Oregon’s economics department. “And there are no signs of relief in the housing market.”<BR/><BR/>Duy authors the Central Oregon Business Index, a quarterly account of nine economic variables that make up the region’s economic landscape. As Duy expected, the index fell hard from the third quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter, to 169.7, increasing fears the region will not be insulated from a recession threatening the nation.<BR/><BR/>That is a 4.1 percent decrease from the previous quarter, Duy said. The index of 169.7 is based on a measure of components that include housing, tourism and labor data. A base index of 100 was set in 1998.<BR/><BR/>“I would say the health of the economy has a sickly green tint to it that is common of many regions that experience significant run-ups in the housing market,” Duy said. “We will continue to see this throughout 2008.”<BR/><BR/>Nationally, Duy expects that by the end of the year, the economy will stabilize and growth will re-emerge. It won’t be the same sort of growth the nation has seen in the past five years, he warns, because the growth will not be based on consumer spending and a growing housing market.<BR/><BR/>“To the extent that people are counting on a rapid rebound in housing to alleviate stress, I think that’s a very unrealistic expectation,” he said.<BR/><BR/>Duy expects investors will be more careful where they put their money and more regulation will exist in the mortgage markets. Additionally, tighter underwriting conditions will prevail, including more proof of a borrower’s income and requirements for larger down payments.<BR/><BR/>“The ability of the average person, without adequate income documentation, to get money to leverage on the housing market is not going to be there in the future,” Duy said. “That distinction is important for people to recognize.”<BR/><BR/>Housing’s influence<BR/><BR/>Housing-related components sagged to levels Central Oregon hasn’t seen in years, according to the index. Fewer houses are selling — units sold in the fourth quarter fell again, as they had every quarter in 2007, hitting a monthly average of 205 units, which Duy says is effectively reverting the market to the 1997 pace of activity.<BR/><BR/>Deschutes County building permits rose from 98 in the third quarter to 119 in the fourth quarter, but they remain at 10-year lows, according to the index, and a house’s median days on the market remained relatively stable.<BR/><BR/>The employment market is feeling the pain shaking through the housing market, according to the index. Increased layoffs met increased hesitancy on the part of firms to expand employment last quarter, which worsened labor conditions in the fourth quarter, Duy said.<BR/><BR/>New business filings declined substantially, according to the index, hitting their lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2004, at 332. That also suggests a slackening of labor demand, Duy said.<BR/><BR/>The labor market deteriorated during the last quarter, the index shows. Payrolls were seeing an 8 percent year-over-year increase at the index’s peak in 2006, but slowed in the fourth quarter of 2007 to a 2.5 percent gain over fourth quarter 2006, according to the index.<BR/><BR/>“Job growth has simply stagnated,” Duy said. “We’ve seen job growth decelerate before, but we haven’t actually seen the real downshift in the job market that we saw in the fourth quarter.”<BR/><BR/>Help-wanted advertisements in The Bulletin fell by more than 1,900 ads from the third to fourth quarters, suggesting a serious decrease in the hiring interest among employers, Duy said.<BR/><BR/>This change in the employment market — from one where employers had to fight to attract qualified workers to one where workers have a harder time finding work — bodes well for businesses seeking labor, Duy said. But that market hurts workers like La Pine’s Spencer, whose former job in Gilchrist was tied to the home-building industry.<BR/><BR/>Duy said a recessionary job market would show severe job losses across all industries. Economists typically define a national recession as at least two consecutive quarters of a decline in gross domestic product.<BR/><BR/>“So the closer you get to significant year-over-year declines in job growth, the closer you are to a recession,” he said. “We’re certainly seeing a slowing of economic activity, but nothing like (recessionary levels) yet.”<BR/><BR/>Less spending, fewer vacationers<BR/><BR/>Regional tourism officials are worried about the state of the national economy, which seems to scare visitors away from planning vacations in advance. Instead, they are waiting things out, tourism officials say.<BR/><BR/>At Redmond Airport, the index found passenger boardings and deplanements in the fourth quarter were effectively unchanged from the third quarter.<BR/><BR/>Estimated Bend lodging-tax revenues, however, fell sharply from the third to fourth quarters, according to the index — from $1.7 million to $1.4 million. That decrease suggests discretionary spending will dwindle this year, a worrisome prospect for Central Oregon’s tourism industry, officials in that industry say.<BR/><BR/>Already, the $498 million-a-year tourism industry in the High Desert reported a flat December, although Central Oregon’s resort properties, condominiums and vacation homes have fared the same or just slightly better this winter than they did last year, according to Alana Audette, president and CEO of the Central Oregon Visitors Association.<BR/><BR/>Hotels and motels in Bend and Redmond, however, have fared worse, she said. Audette says hotel/motel customers tend to be spontaneous travelers who this winter were forgoing a last-minute weekend vacation.<BR/><BR/>In Bend alone, room-tax collections, which can be used as a measure of out-of-town visitors, dropped almost 10 percent in December 2007 from December 2006, according to COVA.<BR/><BR/>But unincorporated Deschutes County, which holds many of the area’s destination resorts, posted a December tax-collection increase of 5.7 percent over December 2006, according to COVA.<BR/><BR/>Audette is predicting a tough 2008 with fewer spring and summer hospitality reservations made at this time than they saw last year at this point.<BR/><BR/>“It is certainly something that we are concerned about and believe will have carry-over impact into 2008 and likely the first part of 2009,” Audette said, adding that some of the industry’s lower numbers may be due to inclement weather and an overall drop in leisure travel this winter.<BR/><BR/>“We do believe (the economy) is affecting people’s decision-making with travel,” she said. “Because leisure travel is discretionary, as soon as recession reports start surfacing, people become more careful and cautious with their spending.”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-88384234837123234922008-02-24T11:49:00.000-08:002008-02-24T11:49:00.000-08:00Re: Check it out at http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts...Re: Check it out at http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/urban_renewal_economic_development/juniper_ridge/index.html<BR/><BR/>City removes OLD JR records, ...<BR/><BR/>They just removed the links. Try this: http://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Awww.ci.bend.or.us%2Fdepts%2Furban_renewal_economic_development+juniper+ridge<BR/><BR/>I'll spend some time downloading them soon.Bewerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08389021459268558541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-81516697569942435272008-02-24T11:17:00.000-08:002008-02-24T11:17:00.000-08:00I can't think of anything funnier than the Riche b...I can't think of anything funnier than the Riche business in Bend going out of business HA HA HA<BR/><BR/>All of the furniture stores have used the "going out of business" signs as come ons for years..Now it will be for real. Interior design boutiques have kept some rich women with "taste" busy..HA HA HA NO MORE !<BR/>Lexus, BMW and Mercedes dealers...HA HA HA..no more<BR/>Yes Yes ..I see the humor in this all. I will try to be more fun from now on. Thanks for the tip.<BR/><BR/>All those B names confuse me :-)<BR/><BR/>MARGEAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-41967177204856995622008-02-24T11:15:00.000-08:002008-02-24T11:15:00.000-08:00The founder of Washington County's giant Arbor Cus...The founder of Washington County's giant Arbor Custom Homes says the Pollock auction's "ALL HOMES MUST BE SOLD!" story line tells buyers that Portland's housing market is in the tank.<BR/>But Remmers says things aren't as bad as the auction makes it appear.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>Arbor Homes is sitting on $100's of Millions in inventory and land, just like boss hogg hollern.<BR/><BR/>They all hate POLLOCK, the sharks are now starting to eat one another.<BR/><BR/>Things are as bad as they appear, they're MUCH worse. If you ain't got it sold by this summer, and you can't float your DEBT for 2-5 years, then your BK.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-58183665546911429472008-02-24T11:12:00.000-08:002008-02-24T11:12:00.000-08:00"Some of those guys are going to whine themselves ...<B><BR/> "Some of those guys are going to whine themselves into bankruptcy if they don't get their heads out of the sand. That's my quote," Pollock said.<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>Just as Roger Pollock gets ready for his second home auction in three months, builder Wally Remmers grabbed a 2-by-4 this week to take a whack Pollock's sell-off.<BR/>The founder of Washington County's giant Arbor Custom Homes says the Pollock auction's "ALL HOMES MUST BE SOLD!" story line tells buyers that Portland's housing market is in the tank.<BR/>But Remmers says things aren't as bad as the auction makes it appear. The real problem, Remmers argues, is what he considers Pollock's business mistakes.<BR/>Remmers got steamed reading auction news stories, and he offered an interview this week.<BR/>Pollock, a brazen guy even in an industry of colorful personalities, is a bit of an outsider among the big local builders.<BR/>The auction upset Pollock's competitors, but Remmers is the first to go after Pollock publicly.<BR/>"What have you done to cause an auction?" Remmers asks, without mentioning Pollock by name. "It's not the market. . . . There's a whole lot of fundamentals missing in those homes that are being auctioned."<BR/>Remmers argues that Pollock built a sea of speculative homes during the boom, without considering how many the market could absorb. When sales slowed, Pollock called in the auctioneer rather than sit on more than 200 unsold homes.<BR/>"This guy has done a terrible job, but in the paper it's reflected like he's good," Remmers said.<BR/>Pollock, of course, sees it differently.<BR/>He says the auction helped clear his inventory and he's heard compliments around town about how well it worked.<BR/>Pollock, owner of Lake Oswego's Buena Vista Custom Homes, argues that he's always angered other builders with innovative business practices. "Some of those guys are going to whine themselves into bankruptcy if they don't get their heads out of the sand. That's my quote," Pollock said.<BR/>Pollock said he last talked to Remmers at a Halloween party at Pollock's house last year. But Pollock had a sharp barb for Remmers, citing one of his recent investments gone bad.<BR/>"Maybe Wally should concentrate on horse breeding," Pollock said. "You can quote me on that."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-87028292118081726952008-02-24T11:03:00.000-08:002008-02-24T11:03:00.000-08:00They have a fair amount of mind share on the west ...They have a fair amount of mind share on the west side, because they are so noticeable, and such a great symbol for what Bend thought Bend was going to be, as opposed to what it is.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>I'm SURE somebody thought they were going to demolish all of Galveston and Newport and put up these new CHEAP modern low cost boxes. So fucking tacky are the fuckers that brought money to this city.<BR/><BR/>Diversity and mixture of old & when, classic and MILL, this is what makes old-bend.<BR/><BR/>The BEND BRAND as SOLD by COVA with taxpayer money was always these fucking CONDO's.<BR/><BR/>I never understood why someone would want to come to Oregon, to live in a cookie-cutter shit-hole box. Well we now know that other than a few sold along the river corridor it didn't play. Most money was in Condo's, but also the most loss.<BR/><BR/>The BEND-BRAND is now the BEND CONDO, the ultimate sign of the sucker bet, a lot of 'rich' people now poor, thanks to the Bend Condo, and the BULL ain't going to wipe this shit in the nose of the few remaining rich.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-31865189564387128782008-02-24T10:56:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:56:00.000-08:00They have a fair amount of mind share on the west ...They have a fair amount of mind share on the west side, because they are so noticeable, and such a great symbol for what Bend thought Bend was going to be, as opposed to what it is.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>Does ASPEN have have JETSON CONDOS?<BR/><BR/>Doesn't TUSCANY mandate 14th century architecture??<BR/><BR/>Bend doesn't know what it is, who knows what the DUMB FUCK that BORROWED for those condos was thinking, but he wasn't BEND, at best those condos should/could become RETAIL.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-21683408858504181512008-02-24T10:52:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:52:00.000-08:00Tim,As a daily shopper @ Newport Market, I complet...Tim,<BR/><BR/>As a daily shopper @ Newport Market, I completely agree with your suggestion that they're an icon, but HOLY FUCKING SHIT, if one were to list all the empty un-saleable RE in Bend, how long would the list be??<BR/><BR/>Your right as always tim, but unless you live in the hood, there just another cluster of ugly fucking out of place JETSON condo's, my gawd what kind of FUCKING INBRED CALI would buy one of these??<BR/><BR/><BR/>That's typical BULL, just blow your fucking HORN when something goes UP, but not say a word when it gets scrapped.<BR/><BR/>On subject everyone should read NedFlanders (dunc) today, he's talking like building permits for commercial & residential almost zero, I know all about this cuz I talk to builders everyday, in about 3-6 months there will be NO work, this summer is going to be the SUMMER of misery for everyone in the RE trade.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-90712634039965451222008-02-24T10:48:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:48:00.000-08:00“If you’re in an expansion mode,” Kemp said, “it’s...“If you’re in an expansion mode,” Kemp said, “it’s a great time to be looking for space.”<BR/><BR/>"Best Time to Buy in 20 Years."<BR/><BR/>They really can't help themselves, can they.Duncan McGearyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02857388833850939721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-85259351453119225132008-02-24T10:41:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:41:00.000-08:00>>The Newport moderns, well there is about 5,000 u...>>The Newport moderns, well there is about 5,000 units of that shit sitting empty, the BULL doesn't have enough ink or paper to discuss all our dark-matter RE inventory.<BR/><BR/>I mention those because they are an interesting symbol. I overhear people talking about them. They have a fair amount of mindshare on the west side, because they are so noticeable, and such a great symbol for what Bend thought Bend was going to be, as opposed to what it is.<BR/><BR/>I'm amused by the thought that the Bulletin doesn't have enough ink and paper to talk about the Newport Moderns, because they sure used plenty of ink and paper on them while they were being built.timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04558612755834018291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-64375186472266414942008-02-24T10:38:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:38:00.000-08:00Still no mention of the Plaza fiasco, or the Newpo...Still no mention of the Plaza fiasco, or the Newport moderns. But we're getting there.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>How can you not mention the plaza? Most likely cuz its the good old girls of Bend.<BR/><BR/>The Newport moderns, well there is about 5,000 units of that shit sitting empty, the BULL doesn't have enough ink or paper to discuss all our dark-matter RE inventory.<BR/><BR/>The BULL still has a long way to go, they're now about 1% into what is really happening in Bend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-62317819104535116432008-02-24T10:34:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:34:00.000-08:00http://www.lathamexcavation.com/page/1hvq7/Commerc...http://www.lathamexcavation.com/page/1hvq7/Commercial_Projects/Les_Schwab_HQ_Case_Study.html<BR/><BR/>Anybody care to read with pictures how $9M dollars of tax-payer money was spent to BUILD MT-BORGMAN for our new king BOSS-HOGG of Bend, just read the above link.<BR/><BR/>Latham Excavation the sub-contractor for the Knife-River project has a beautiful report on the work.<BR/><BR/>Homer, this is critical, all 1500 acres of JR is rock-out cropping look at these pictures, it cost $9M just to clear 40 acres to build MT-BORGMAN. The JR land is worthless.<BR/><BR/>The city theory of 'how' we get our $9M back is buy selling JR land? But who in the fuck is going to buy land that costs up to $20 sq-ft ?<BR/><BR/>Nada NO-WHERE this is never going to happen, unless the city just keeps doing this over&over and paying for other rich companys SDC's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-91106604269326517702008-02-24T10:33:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:33:00.000-08:00Ah crap. I didn't even realize people were still t...Ah crap. I didn't even realize people were still talking. Stupid blogspot.<BR/><BR/>Well, the Bend Bulletin really went to the bears today. FINALLY they say that the office condos are sucking.<BR/><BR/>Still no mention of the Plaza fiasco, or the Newport moderns. But we're getting there.timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04558612755834018291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-48765866970879384092008-02-24T10:31:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:31:00.000-08:00Costs incurred and required for the Juniper Ridge ...Costs incurred and required for the Juniper Ridge project totals $12.6 million to date<BR/>and will require financing from a bank line of credit of up to $7.5M. During the<BR/>November 19<BR/>th<BR/>work session, staff will discuss the details of these costs and<BR/>recommend a funding/financing plan for Council to consider approving.<BR/>Juniper Ridge Costs to Date<BR/>The Juniper Ridge fund has incurred $12.6 million to date as follows (see attached<BR/>Detail of Juniper Ridge Costs Through FY 07-08):<BR/>FY05-06 thru FY07-08<BR/>Construction of infrastructure (Cooley impvs, pump station,<BR/>utilities & Les Schwab SDCs )<BR/>$ 8,291,388<BR/>Payment to Juniper Ridge Partners (per MOU sect 11.5)<BR/>2,500,000<BR/>Legal and consulting<BR/>923,463<BR/>Personnel and overhead costs<BR/>917,033<BR/>Total incurred and required<BR/>$12,631,884Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-51025347842286087872008-02-24T10:17:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:17:00.000-08:00Marge,You realize that Paul-doh, I Hate to Burst Y...Marge,<BR/><BR/>You realize that Paul-doh, I Hate to Burst Your Bubble, proprietor of this site, is a different person than Bilbo, Buster, Bart?Duncan McGearyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02857388833850939721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-67466634061353299872008-02-24T10:08:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:08:00.000-08:00Fargo is one of my favorite movies. I am from Sout...Fargo is one of my favorite movies. I am from South Dakota and Minn. Marge is my favorite character to copy lines from. (Not Homers Marge).<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>That's real, about time you get real, yes a great movie, but this is Springfield, and I'm Bart, and your Homers wife,<BR/><BR/>If this were Fargo, "EVERYONE WOULD DEAD", so lets not go there.<BR/><BR/>In time you may be correct as I do suspect more housewives will be robbed in our cali shopping lots, and vigilantes will hang a few miscreants, and then there will be vendettas, ... It's bound to happen, but by trying to keep this 'Springfield' is that there is color, and humor, ... Fargo is largely about death, certainly Fargo is the CLOSER to the Truth about Bend. Certainly you are absolutely correct in your TRUTH, but the truth is I hold a lot back, and try to make fun of Bend, and its stupid politicians, and they're stupid lies. I think its better to make fun of the mess, and mix it with potty talk. Keep it light, Keep it silly.<BR/><BR/>If we were to get too real here, my personal guess is that there are a lot of people in Bend short of their medications, hurting bad, wife sleeping with another man, family's falling apart. By making fun of the MESS we call Bend, by keeping a light sense of humor on it, I think we can not be responsible IF&WHEN nuts start doing stupid shit at MTG outfits, & banks, ... It's going to happen, there will be death in Bend. There have already been quite a few suicides to date because of economic loss. If we get too dark here, and the wrong person reads our shit, I would hate to fucking have been the reason to driven them over the edge.<BR/><BR/>The TRUTH the dark truth about Bend, and how close we are to edge of madness, poverty, and despair, would be a little too much.<BR/><BR/>Thus that is the reason that I'll 100% concur that TRUTH is this is FARGO, but we really can't go there, better to keep it SIMPSONS.<BR/><BR/>Bend is FARGO, but the SIMPSONS puts a HAPPY FACE on Bend.<BR/><BR/>I hope the above explains why we need to keep it cute, funny, silly, ... cuz at the end of the day it really is only about money.<BR/><BR/>The good thing about depressions is people learn what is really important.<BR/><BR/>I have long said the most important ammunition we have against the boss-hoggs is ridicule and scorn. We must continue to portray the BULL&SORE as buffoons, and city-hall & city-staff as common criminals, in the key-stone cop's sense. <BR/><BR/>It's all a big joke, but the TRUTH is if we really told the truth, we would cast a black cloud over this town forever. Let's not go there.<BR/><BR/>I have long said I'm here in Bend for the long term, even the next 2-5 years are going to be dark, I don't want this town to become a death zone, lets all do our part, that Bend doesn't become a Fargo.<BR/><BR/>You yourself pointed out that the nouveau rich here, brought their drug dealers, and I'm sure their drug-dealers brought their felon monkeys, we probably have a higher percentage of homicidal nuts in Bend, than most places on average. Like Fargo, a little money can do strange things to the heads of people.<BR/><BR/>I have long thought by telling the truth, and reporting on the BULL&SORE and demanding they come clean, would be the first order of fixing Bend. Even now you can see in some insipid ways even today the BULL is now reporting Bends demise. Now we need to get them to start demanding in the press to force city-hall to quit running this city into bankruptcy. It means that the boss-hoggs will lose their cash-flow ( Knife-River, ... ), but it has to be done.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-63640003823983764172008-02-24T10:07:00.000-08:002008-02-24T10:07:00.000-08:00Bilbo...You are ruining my Sunday morning..Where's...Bilbo...<BR/>You are ruining my Sunday morning..<BR/><BR/>Where's the new post??<BR/><BR/>1985-1995 The BEST 10 years in Bend.<BR/><BR/>Also the Best Buyers Market in 10 years.<BR/><BR/>MargeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-62683686893421600572008-02-24T09:38:00.000-08:002008-02-24T09:38:00.000-08:00MARGE HERE !!"Soon all the LA people will leave, a...MARGE HERE !!<BR/><BR/>"Soon all the LA people will leave, and Bend will be Bend again".<BR/><BR/>I wish that they could leave.<BR/>The only ones that will leave are going by JINGLE MAIL, the rest will starve here since they can't sell. Then they start stealing from us have nots. SUV's will fill the used car lots. More bicycles will be run down in the round abouts as they don't know how to bike the roundies like in their cars. The Calis will take over the corners for beggin space.<BR/>The hospital baby ward will close down as the calis figure they can't afford no more kids.<BR/>I had a women call me about selling in Awbrey as it's 3000sf was not large enough for 5 kids and 2 offices. Asked how much they paid and what the HELOC balance was. She didn't like it when I told her she was 200k upside down and can't get a loan for a larger home. Damn she nearly hung up on me. The truth will set you free...and kept me from selling a house. Oh well!! Five freakin kids??? How dumb is that. Zero to .5 per household should be enough kids.<BR/><BR/>Fargo is one of my favorite movies. I am from South Dakota and Minn. Marge is my favorite character to copy lines from. (Not Homers Marge).<BR/><BR/>Marge is a great name as apposed to MS Fucker.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-56956354758323515812008-02-24T09:22:00.000-08:002008-02-24T09:22:00.000-08:00A thing to remember is that many of these commerci...A thing to remember is that many of these commercial buildings were built with the same sorts of dubious loans that infect the housing market. <BR/><BR/>I'd think hey'll trail the housing by a year or two in consequences.Duncan McGearyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02857388833850939721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-30151717037313511362008-02-24T08:56:00.000-08:002008-02-24T08:56:00.000-08:00“Long-term, I’ve seen this picture before,” said R...“Long-term, I’ve seen this picture before,” said Ross, who’s been in Central Oregon real estate since the economic troubles of the early 1980s. “I’m actually very positive … you just have to take a bigger picture, longer-term view.”<BR/><BR/>**<BR/><BR/>JEEBUS fucking CHRIST HOMEBOY read the above, they're NOW quoting folks like BUSTER, its early 1980's DEJA fucking VU, has the BULL gone fucking MAD?<BR/><BR/>SURE we're all positive, I'm sure BEND will be booming again POST 2025. That's the when the NEXT baby-boom, will fuel the next RE BOOM, until then, austerity, but this is a GOOD thing, cuz it means that we pay as we go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-16110978971695290282008-02-24T08:53:00.000-08:002008-02-24T08:53:00.000-08:00BULL gets OFF its lazy ass and reports about "COLL...<B><BR/>BULL gets OFF its lazy ass and reports about "COLLAPSE" of Bends Commercial Real Estate.<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>Area’s industrial and office space vacancies rising<BR/>‘If you’re in an expansion mode,’ says one local broker, ‘it’s a great time to be looking’<BR/>By David Fisher / The Bulletin<BR/>Published: February 24. 2008 4:00AM PST<BR/><BR/><BR/>When Chemica Technologies, a Bend-based biotech research firm, pulled up stakes and moved to Portland last year, the managers at Grace Bio-Labs didn’t hesitate.<BR/><BR/>Grace, a maker of patented labware for the molecular study of cells, was about to burst out of its space on Empire Avenue, Business Development Director Michelle Carney said. So it bought the building that Chemica left on west Bend’s Cyber Drive, complete with built-out lab space and offices.<BR/><BR/>Now Grace Bio-Labs, which has been in Central Oregon since 1986, has 2½ times more space for its 17 employees, with room to build out further.<BR/><BR/>“It’s very well suited to what we do,” Carney said. “So it was just a matter of being in the right place at the right time and having the right connections that we found this building when we did.”<BR/><BR/>Businesses throughout Bend and Redmond are finding industrial and office space easier to come by this year.<BR/><BR/>After three straight years of relatively tight vacancies and gradually rising lease rates, vacancies opened up in the fourth quarter of last year, Bruce Kemp, principal broker at Compass Commercial Real Estate, said Thursday. The change was fueled partly by a contraction in housing-related business sectors and partly by the effects of new buildings coming onto the market.<BR/><BR/>According to Compass’ quarterly survey of 177 buildings, office vacancies rose to 11.2 percent in Bend by the end of the year, nearly double the 6.5 percent of fourth quarter 2006.<BR/><BR/>Industrial buildings also loosened up in both Bend and Redmond, according to Compass’ survey. Bend’s fourth quarter vacancy rate reached 10.5 percent in industrial space.<BR/><BR/>Redmond’s reached 17.3 percent, bloated mostly by the addition of new buildings.<BR/><BR/>The total amount of space leased in both markets increased through the year, but not at the same rate of growth the markets saw in 2006. In Bend, 48,800 square feet of new office space was leased out through 2007 — less than half the 124,000 square feet that was absorbed in 2006.<BR/><BR/>Industrial absorption in Bend amounted to a little less than 85,700 square feet, according to Compass’ numbers, about 33 percent off the 2006 pace.<BR/><BR/>In Redmond, less than half as much new space was absorbed in 2007 as in 2006.<BR/><BR/>The bottom line for potential tenants is simple, Kemp said. Lease rates have remained stuck, but tenants are getting much better incentive deals from prospective landlords, ranging from richer tenant improvement allowances to several months of free rent, as landlords scramble to get their buildings filled.<BR/><BR/>“If you’re in an expansion mode,” Kemp said, “it’s a great time to be looking for space.”<BR/><BR/>Who’s looking?<BR/><BR/>After a moribund fall, activity in the commercial leasing market is picking up as companies, like Grace Bio-Labs, that are not related to the housing industry begin to realize that they might be able to find a decent deal on new space, said Steve Larsen, principal broker at Steve Larsen Properties.<BR/><BR/>Much of the interest seems to be coming from the nonhousing-related financial and service sectors — insurance brokers, lawyers, accountants — who have needed for some time to grow their practices to keep up with the expanding population, but have felt shut out by a tight leasing market, Larsen said.<BR/><BR/>Now, with monthly Bend office lease rates stuck in the $1.65 to $2 per square foot range, depending on class and location, and with landlord incentives rising, some are making their moves.<BR/><BR/>“I think there are a lot of people who have kind of been on the fence for a while through 2007 who are making those kinds of decisions, either because they are out of space or they can’t wait any longer,” Larsen said.<BR/><BR/>Still, there is an air of caution in the wind, Kemp said, and it’s tipping the weight of the market toward leasing rather than buying space, and toward holding off rather than starting a new building project.<BR/><BR/>From a tenant’s perspective, the factors that go into making those decisions can get complex, Kemp noted, but it boils down to a basic question: Is there more money to be made by investing in a building or by paying rent and investing the upfront cash back into the business?<BR/><BR/>Right now, market factors are tipping the table toward leasing, Kemp said. First, there’s the question of whether to invest in a building or in something else. With lease rates flat, it’s tougher for the income stream on a commercial building to compete with the 6.5 percent or more in simple interest that a similar investment could draw in the general economy.<BR/><BR/>Then there is the question of rising or decreasing real estate values, Kemp said: Right now, there’s downward pressure on the price of commercial buildings, and particularly fierce pressure on the price of commercial land.<BR/><BR/>Consequently, Kemp said, he would expect the major office buildings that are already under construction in Bend, including The ODS Cos. building at Wilson and Bond streets and the 38,000-square-foot Bonnett Point office building at the corner of Simpson Street and Colorado Avenue, to finish up and gradually fill up this year. But any new construction that starts is likely to be a build-to-suit project for a locked-in tenant — and he doesn’t expect to see many of those.<BR/><BR/>“It’s a little bit cautionary,” Kemp said. “I think people who may want to buy at some point in time are probably going to lease rather than buy right now.”<BR/><BR/>Office condos<BR/><BR/>That’s not to say that sellers aren’t trying.<BR/><BR/>Ron Ross, a commercial property broker for RE/MAX Equity Group in Bend, said he counted eight to 10 sales of commercial buildings in Bend in 2007. Last month, there were 66 commercial units listed for sale, Ross said. About half were buildings and the rest were office condos.<BR/><BR/>Office condominiums — buildings in which the tenants can buy a small piece of a larger building, rather than having to shell out the millions that it takes to build a full-sized, Class A structure — are a relatively new concept to Bend. Two of the largest, the 32,000-square-foot Vision Plaza building and the neighboring 11,420-square-foot Columbia View Suites, sit next door to each other on west Bend’s Columbia Street. Both have had units for sale for about six months and neither is close to full.<BR/><BR/>Ross is dubious of the concept’s staying power, particularly in a market that is already overbuilt.<BR/><BR/>“They just flat have not been successful,” Ross told a group of reporters and real estate agents at a Central Oregon Association of Realtors lunch Wednesday. “I’m sorry if I’m offending anybody here, but they have not been selling office condos.”<BR/><BR/>Larsen, the listing agent for Vision Plaza, said he has one of the building’s units under contract and another in negotiations. There are two letters of intent to lease some of its space — an option that wasn’t part of the owners’ plan when the building was built.<BR/><BR/>“Obviously, the last six months were not what I, as the listing agent, or the owners anticipated,” Larsen conceded, but he blamed the building’s slow sales more on market timing than on the concept.<BR/><BR/>It took more than 18 months to take the Vision Plaza building, where 1,200-square-foot units are listed for around $367,000, from the concept stage to completion, Larsen said. The market changed during that cycle — a risk that all developers of commercial buildings, most of which are large, expensive and time-consuming to build, face.<BR/><BR/>“If it were easy, everybody would be doing it, and for a while, a lot of people did. But it’s a risky business,” Larsen said.<BR/><BR/>That’s true, Ross agreed. The current market has driven out most of its speculators and tax-deferred property exchangers, leaving a different sort of playing field. But it’s taking awhile, he said, for some of its players to adjust.<BR/><BR/>“Property has to stand on its own, fundamentally, right now, and if it does, we have good buyer interest,” Ross said. “That means it has to have real tenants, with good leases that are supporting the price point. If that happens, property can sell in today’s market. But unfortunately, we have a lot of sellers who don’t understand that, and even a lot of brokers who don’t understand that, so we’re building up an excess of inventory.<BR/><BR/>“Long-term, I’ve seen this picture before,” said Ross, who’s been in Central Oregon real estate since the economic troubles of the early 1980s. “I’m actually very positive … you just have to take a bigger picture, longer-term view.”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-39819809338343656742008-02-24T08:50:00.000-08:002008-02-24T08:50:00.000-08:00Check it out at http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/urb...Check it out at http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/urban_renewal_economic_development/juniper_ridge/index.html<BR/><BR/>City removes OLD JR records, ...<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>OF course they're GOING to scrub all the history, thats why OUR sites MUST never USE LINKS, we must always post the orginals, we must always keep the pdf's, we must always make sure the bastards and fucker that run this city can't hide their shit.<BR/><BR/>This is why its imperative that many sites be maintained, all with original source material, that be copied and saved forever for future reference, because you can be damn sure the city of bend only wants to cover its ASS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-58957401571361624192008-02-24T08:43:00.000-08:002008-02-24T08:43:00.000-08:00Already, the $498 million-a-year tourism industry ...Already, the $498 million-a-year tourism industry in the High Desert reported a flat December, although Central Oregon’s resort properties, condominiums and vacation homes have fared the same or just slightly better this winter than they did last year, according to Alana Audette, president and CEO of the Central Oregon Visitors Association<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>HOMER PLEASE do a fucking COBA on COVA, I MEAN COVA colludes, how long have we heard this FUCKING $498M, its over, its been over for years, they're no longer coming, they came once and said "NEVER AGAIN".<BR/><BR/>COVA is spending OUR money, on BULLSHIT.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-61214562018688657172008-02-24T08:27:00.000-08:002008-02-24T08:27:00.000-08:00The BIG LS fucking of BEND/PRINY finally sinks in ...<B><BR/>The BIG LS fucking of BEND/PRINY finally sinks in at the FUCKING BULL, WE'RE FUCKED.<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>Les Schwab’s departure leaves hole in Prineville<BR/><BR/>By Erin Golden / The Bulletin<BR/>Published: February 24. 2008 4:00AM PST<BR/><BR/>PRINEVILLE — On almost every weekday afternoon for more than a decade, tire magnate Les Schwab took lunch with his company executives in the same place: a corner table at Meadow Lakes Restaurant with a panoramic view of the golf course.<BR/><BR/>More than nine months after Schwab’s death at age 89, the table is still his, reserved for employees who make the short trip across town from the corporate headquarters of the billion-dollar tire chain. And it’s not just a small table of corporate executives who frequent the restaurant. Some days — including Thursday, when company staff took up at least three large tables — Les Schwab employees lunching in the sun-filled dining room nearly outnumber the remaining customers.<BR/><BR/>But by the end of the year, when the Les Schwab Tire Centers’ corporate headquarters — and its approximately 300 administrative employees — move from Prineville to a new site in Bend, the lunch rush is going to look a little different.<BR/><BR/>“We’re building our budget for next year with the anticipation that our business could be substantially reduced,” said Wayne Van Matre, Meadow Lakes’ director of operations. “We’re not sure when the (drop) will happen ... but this is something we’ve been planning on.”<BR/><BR/>Although about 800 of the company’s approximately 1,150 Prineville employees will remain in town at the Schwab distribution center, the approaching loss of the administrative and upper-management staff is making waves across Crook County.<BR/><BR/>Several local leaders and business owners said they’re not sure exactly what will happen when Les Schwab moves more than a quarter of its staff, but that change is certainly in the air. The move could mean the loss of dozens of Prineville residents who choose to move to Bend, and at the very least, a large number of high-level jobs that could be hard to replace with so many other local cities competing for new businesses.<BR/><BR/>“It’s a constant problem for the region — the continuous challenge of how you get people to build in Prineville when Bend is next door,” said Crook County Judge Scott Cooper. “How do you grow yourself to the critical mass where you can meet those amenity needs?”<BR/><BR/>Making the move<BR/><BR/>Founded in the early 1950s, Schwab’s tire business grew out of an O.K. Rubber Welders tire store and expanded across the West and Alaska. Today, Les Schwab Tire Centers employs more than 7,000 people in 400 stores, according to the company’s Web site.<BR/><BR/>After a half-century in Prineville, the company announced in December 2006 that it would move its headquarters from the city’s west end to a new, 120,000-square-foot facility north of Cooley Road in Bend. Builders broke ground on the new site, located within the Juniper Ridge development, in September.<BR/><BR/>In a presentation to the Bend City Council on Wednesday, architects said workers should be able to move in by November.<BR/><BR/>Many locals said they were shocked when they first heard the news about a company they thought would never leave Schwab’s hometown. The news was tough on everyone but particularly on employees facing a choice between a long commute or a new community, said Prineville Mayor Mike Wendel.<BR/><BR/>“I think they’re worried that they’re going to have to commute to Bend,” Wendel said. “I don’t think they were ever anticipating having to move or commute to Bend when they took a job for Les Schwab — it was an organization that was planning on staying here in Prineville.”<BR/><BR/>Last month, Les Schwab spokeswoman Jodie Hueske said around 10 percent to 15 percent of the corporate office employees already live in and around Bend. But for the dozens of workers who call Prineville home, the prospect of a 75-mile, round-trip commute could mean more make the move to Bend. Hueske said employees who decide to sell their Prineville homes will receive some assistance with closing costs.<BR/><BR/>Hueske said the company will provide a shuttle bus service for employees between Prineville and Bend. The details of that arrangement will be worked out after officials survey employees later this year.<BR/><BR/>The business effect<BR/><BR/>With so much still up in the air, some Prineville residents, government leaders and business owners said they’re uncertain about what kind of hole the move will create in the community. At the Towne Pump, a gas station, grocery store and laundromat located next door to the Les Schwab main office and across the street from its distribution center, cashier Joanie Robertson said she was worried when she first heard the news and is still concerned about the loss of business from the Schwab lunch crowd.<BR/><BR/>“I about fainted,” Robertson said, remembering when she learned of the move. “I’m really worried, because a lot of our customers are Les Schwab people.”<BR/><BR/>The move could mean a loss for other service industries, including the hotels where Les Schwab hosts visiting executives. Restaurants like Meadow Lakes, which also provides catering service for Les Schwab corporate functions, will likely see a dip in business. Van Matre said his restaurant has already been losing some Les Schwab business for a couple of years after the company began hosting some of its events in Bend rather than Prineville.<BR/><BR/>Prineville-Crook County Economic Development Manager Jason Carr said conversation about the new Bend facility has dropped off since the initial announcement, but that Prineville is still preparing for whatever comes next.<BR/><BR/>“Lots of the business executives and management, the people at headquarters, are here every day, buying lunch out in the community, shopping at local stores,” he said. “I think the community is going to feel that when they pick up and leave.”<BR/><BR/>Prineville-Crook County Cham- ber President Jay Porter said he and other community leaders hope they’ll be able to find new businesses to replace the void created by the Les Schwab departure. In particular, he said the community needs to attract more professional-level, higher-paying jobs to complement the rest of the Prineville job market.<BR/><BR/>“It would be really nice to see something come in that does have the range of professional and blue-collar work,” he said. “With Les Schwab, what’s leaving is the white collar and the blue collar is staying. It would be nice to see more professional and administrative, because we rely pretty heavily on mills and Les Schwab’s warehouse for general employment. (Those jobs) are not the higher wage-earners that a town needs.”<BR/><BR/>Looking ahead<BR/><BR/>An uncertain economy and dramatic downturn in the building industry could complicate the loss. The latest building permit data for Crook County shows a 94 percent drop in permits for homes in January.<BR/><BR/>At the least, filling the empty Les Schwab office building could be difficult, said Crook County Assessor Tom Green.<BR/><BR/>“We won’t really know what can be made of that building, whether they would raise it or convert it to businesses,” he said. “It probably depends on the market — you can’t measure it at this point. If this had happened a couple years ago, that would be a significant piece of property there, and they maybe could get something like a Wal-Mart to build there or just tear it down. But at this point, the market is very slow and people are very tentative, and it would be hard to market that at all.”<BR/><BR/>At the Crook County School District, officials were initially concerned that the move could make for a dramatic drop in enrollment. But now, Superintendent Steve Swisher said he believes many families will stick around, and the impact will probably be minimal.<BR/><BR/>“There was a fear at one point that some of the operations were going to be moving and speculation about the headquarters moving out of state,” he said. “It was sort of a relief that it was just a short Central Oregon move ... we have many people in the warehouses that have kids in school but fewer people in the central office. We thought we would have some impact, but now we’re quantifying that in terms of 20 or 30 students (possibly leaving) instead of 200 or 300.”<BR/><BR/>And at Meadow Lakes, where the tables of Les Schwab employees will soon come exclusively from the production facilities, longtime server Jennifer Miller said it’s simply too soon to tell just what the move will mean for Prineville. Miller, who often waited on Schwab when he came in for lunch, said the business’s namesake would likely be surprised by the turn of events.<BR/><BR/>“Because he was kind of old school, he might have had a little bit of a hard time with (the move to Bend),” she said. “But sometimes, change is good — I guess the company is doing what it has to do.”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-86177661878040609032008-02-24T08:24:00.000-08:002008-02-24T08:24:00.000-08:00This newest/oldest FUCKING sucks, HOMER quit fucki...This newest/oldest FUCKING sucks, HOMER quit fucking with SHIT, we do you add these fucking GADGETS, why are you always fiddling with SHIT??<BR/><BR/>Now its nearly impossible to search for things in the continuous fucking thread.<BR/><BR/>I know you post once on sunday, and then your done, but I frequently like to go back and see who said what during the thread, now its FUCKING IMPOSSIBLE.<BR/><BR/>Please DONT FIX WHAT AINT BROKEN, OR YOU'LL BECOME A SMELLY CUNT.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com