tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post4701035872681056058..comments2023-07-07T00:32:17.629-07:00Comments on BendBubble2: One Day Does Not A Christmas Season Make. But...Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-71982404855456687972006-12-25T10:53:00.000-08:002006-12-25T10:53:00.000-08:00Hobbits like rain and mudholes, Shire on!!!Hobbits like rain and mudholes, Shire on!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-84464860695725287932006-12-24T08:02:00.000-08:002006-12-24T08:02:00.000-08:00here's a "reprint" from the previous blog... now n...here's a "reprint" from the previous blog... now noone can say I'm Captain Bringdown!<br /><br /><b>Why Bend Real Estate WIll Not Go Down</b><br /><br /><b>Internal Rates of Return have gone to lower acceptable levels</b><br />The historic reduction in interest rates from the early 80's is seen as permanent. People are adjusting to this new reality by buying real assets.<br /><br /><b>Inflation of raw materials will keep prices high</b><br />China and other mega-population centers will push up demand for raw building materials such that they will not fall enough in any relevant time horizon so that newly built homes will not be seen as a lower priced substitute in the future.<br /><br /><b>Income are higher than stated in Bend</b><br />There exists a "black market" income stream in Bend such that real incomes are higher than state figures indicate.<br /><br /><b>The Optimists Are Right</b><br />The "optimistic" scenario in Bend is correct, and Bend is in fact facing a "renaissance" that will permanently increase home prices as Bend becomes an urban center, and all core Bend real estate is being correctly revalued higher.<br /><br /><b>Land will remain scarce</b><br />Land will remain scarce for the foreseeable future, and people not willing to rent during their own relevant planning periods will be forced to buy.<br /><br /><b>The housing stock in Bend is high quality</b><br />The per square foot prices of Bend housing is simply a reflection of a large installed base of newer housing that is far superior to housing of years past. It merits a large increase in price per square foot.<br /><br /><b>Demographics will stay strong</b><br />Inflows from other affluent areas will keep demand for housing high. Retirees and affluent households will bring a large stock of spendable assets to Bend.<br /><br /><b>Real Estate proceeds are being reinvested</b><br />High real estate proceeds are being reinvested in new ventures that will permanently raise incomes in Bend.<br /><br /><b>Media recognition of Bend recreation establishes Bend as new outdoor mecca</b><br />Continued coverage in "Recreational Media" mean Bend travel revenues reach new higher plateaus, and higher demand & resultant income will push up real estate values permanently, as business incomes and wages go higher.<br /><br /><b>Bend is simply becoming more fairly valued</b><br />Bend was peristently undervalued in the past, and has been afflicted with the collapse of economically influential highly cyclical industries in the past which kept real assets artificially low. Bends economy is now sufficiently diversified such that investors and home buyers alike are simply removing a "collapse discount" from Bend real estate.<br /><br /><b>Lenders are more willing to lend on Bend real estate</b><br />Lenders also are removing a "collapse discount" from Bend real estate, and see the stabilizing of prices at higher levels, influx of large employers, and large demographic growth as reasons to loosen lending standards, which increase buyer demand & fund availability.<br /><br /><b>People are unwilling to leave Bend</b><br />Despite perceptions of lack of affordability, many people will not leave Bend for psychic reasons, including unique recreation and other personal attachments to the area.<br /><br /><b>Reverse Brain Drain</b><br />Bend is attracting a demographic that is more willing to take economic risks and has a higher technical expertise. These skills will lead to income streams that extend nationally and internationally, and are far higher than historical norms for the area. Current Bend residents are better educated than at any time in the past, and they will turn this expertise into income.<br /><br /><b>Bend destination resorts are comparably inexpensive</b><br />Bend will become compared to other World class destination resorts, which are at far higher cost. Bend is actually a bargain in this respect, and will attract a disproportionate share of retirees & travelers, which will raise business incomes and asset values in the area, especially high end resorts. These "comps" will spread into nearby areas, raising values.<br /><br /><b>Bend is Affordable</b><br />While prices for owning Bend real estate are historically high, renting remains competitive and quite affordable. People who believe real estate is too high can simply rent, and reinvest the savings into competing investments. People are adjusting to the idea that home ownership does not necessarily mean they can't save a nest egg in other asset classes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-57501894094073137082006-12-24T07:47:00.000-08:002006-12-24T07:47:00.000-08:00I would suggest that the City should drive their n...I would suggest that the City should drive their new lemon buses into the flooded underpasses. Then they can claim them as "flood damaged" on their insurance and write them off.<br /><br />Seriously, perhaps the same City procurement manager who bought those buses also bought the water pumps that are supposed to keep the underpasses clear? It shouldn't take a rocket scientist to calculate how much pumping capacity is required. <br /><br />Clearly some wanker made the decision that said "these pumps are cheaper but it means that the underpasses will be flooded X days per year."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com